Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
Yeah, not having accurate numbers makes it all a guessing game, which sucks
Regarding the "death rate" - to know this, we'd have to know how many people are actually infected (asymptomatic or not) in addition to figuring out which deaths should be attributed to COVID-19 and which shouldn't.
From the NYC antibody testing, they were showing around 25% of the city's population having antibodies. That would mean that the number of cases was way higher than predicted, bringing the rate down.
It is by far the better method, but that would also mean politically admitting it is worse than it is.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
RiTides wrote: Yeah, not having accurate numbers makes it all a guessing game, which sucks
Regarding the "death rate" - to know this, we'd have to know how many people are actually infected (asymptomatic or not) in addition to figuring out which deaths should be attributed to COVID-19 and which shouldn't.
From the NYC antibody testing, they were showing around 25% of the city's population having antibodies. That would mean that the number of cases was way higher than predicted, bringing the rate down.
So yeah, numbers... we don't have them
The WP had an article showing the increase on the average death rate was double the number of covid deaths in the early months of the hard hit states, so that might mean a significant gap. Given the dramatic increase, the underlying issue seems likely. I will try to find it.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/04/30 14:50:32
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
In Illinois they will count it as a COVID death even if you had underlying conditions per the director of the health department.
Which I think is the better method. The disease exacerbating another condition resulting in death is still a death that should be attributed to Covid-19.
Just like those who died from pneumonia which developed due to flu or HIV or whatever should count for those stats.
There's a legal precedence that even if someone was going to die soon anyway, killing them one second sooner than they would have died is still murder and the fact they would have died a second later from something else doesn't matter in the murder case. Yes, that is a legal precedence.
The fictional ronald opus case is cited as an example of this.
And yes, the coroner listed suidide as a cause of death, but that doesn't affect the murder charge as even if someone is executed by the state, the cause of death is listed as a homicide. The official coroner conclusion is not a legal verdict.
The legal ruling is that if it were true the man shot shot opus would be guilty of murder regardless of opus' intent to commit suicide or the fact he'd have dies a second or two later.
So even if covid kills someone a day, an hour or a minute sooner than they would have died of whatever, legally it still killed them and is the cause of death.
For purposes of useful scientific statistics this is a poor standard to use, of course. It shows the difference between legal standards, set by people, and reality.
Scientifically if covid hastens the death of someone with a terminal condition it should probably not be counted as a covid death.
But as they say, "figures can lie because liars can figure". The death tolls and rates are kept by people and people have biases. The death toll will always have some bias in it due to human judgement.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 14:57:12
"But the universe is a big place, and whatever happens, you will not be missed..."
Important bit, some graphs in the article showing the spikes.
In the early weeks of the coronavirusepidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.
The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.
The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents.
But in any pandemic, higher-than-normal mortality is a starting point for scientists seeking to understand the full impact of the disease.
The Yale analysis for the first time estimates excess deaths, both nationally and in each state, in those five weeks. Relying on data that the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) released Friday, the analysis paints a picture of unusually high mortality that will come into sharper view as more data becomes available.
The analysis calculates excess deaths by using a model to estimate how many people probably would have died absent the pandemic, and then subtracting that number from the overall deaths reported by the NCHS.
The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.
The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Post.
...
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
My bank has a crate of these quarters sitting around that have been deemed "in poor taste" to circulate. I think they're May's release for fresh quarters
Lots of bat/covid jokes around
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/04/30 15:02:42
My bank has a crate of these quarters sitting around that have been deemed "in poor taste" to circulate. I think they're May's release for fresh quarters
Lots of bat/covid jokes around
Yeah, thanks for posting this, it brings up something pretty important.
Covid likely, AFAWCK, started from raw batmeat in a chinese wet market.
I just know for a fact a too large segment of humanity will decide to keep this from happening again by "controlling" (read exterminating) bats.
People will not realize bats do a lot of good for humanity by controlling bugs that would eat human food crops. Instead the morons will go on a crusade to wipe out bats because of ignorance and stupidity. Hell. africa is an example of a land without[ enough bats. If they had more the bats might eat enough of those damn locusts to save millions from famine.
The way to prevent things like covid are to regulate these 'wetmarkets' and have far stricter testing for new viral strains, faster reactions to new viral threats, etc.
But no, it's easier to "Go kill all those damn bats!"
China may realize now that killing bats off would likely be a disaster, but I'm afraid other countries might go on a dalek like extermination campaign against bats tho, which would have potentially near apocalyptic results. (Dammit there's no ork screaming in terror icon...)
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/04/30 15:37:42
"But the universe is a big place, and whatever happens, you will not be missed..."
According to some studies compared death rates in various countries and states at this time of year to the death rates over the last 5 years it appears covid is killing a lot more people than we have been told up to now.
A unbiased non political group compared the average death rates over the last 5 years in some countries like italy, spain, etc and some american states to current ones, not causes of death just the actual numbers of people dying, and concluded the reported covid deaths don't account for the big rise above average this year is seeing.
Estimates show that if covid is responsible, it's death rate is at least 50% higher than we've been told.
I did try to post a link to the article but when I tried to go to the page i got hit in the face with a "sign up!" screen and after 3 time I said this. Sometimes I just don't feel like adding another account name/password to the giant invisible digital chain of them we're all wrapped in now.
Or, potentially more people are dying from lack of cancer care, or not turning up to hospitals for other reasons, which has been well speculated in recent media.
But "cause of death: cancer" or other reasons is pretty clear. So eventually we should be able to compare those types of numbers against the average too. More likely, those deaths will come later and not now, because aside from those dying from an acute lack of care, most diseases like cancer don't kill instantly.
That is an adorable bat coin btw.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 15:43:00
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
There's a possibility it started from a leak at a high bio-security lab in Wuhan which was studying bat coronaviruses.
A number of high bio-security labs around the world have accidentally leaked stuff over the years.
A British government lab leaked Foot and Mouth virus in the 2000s. A US government lab leaked smallpox in the 80s (I think, not sure about the date.) The tubes of virus were found later in a cardboard box in a filing cabinet.
So it certainly isn't impossible. To be a little bit conspiracy theory, it would explain why the Chinese government don't want an enquiry.
Kilkrazy wrote: There's a possibility it started from a leak at a high bio-security lab in Wuhan which was studying bat coronaviruses.
A number of high bio-security labs around the world have accidentally leaked stuff over the years.
A British government lab leaked Foot and Mouth virus in the 2000s. A US government lab leaked smallpox in the 80s (I think, not sure about the date.) The tubes of virus were found later in a cardboard box in a filing cabinet.
So it certainly isn't impossible. To be a little bit conspiracy theory, it would explain why the Chinese government don't want an enquiry.
Without going to far into it, the most mundane explanation of why China doesn't want an enquiry is because it makes them look bad, because it was noted by doctors far earlier than the government wanted to respond and something like 41% of early infections could be traced back to one hospital based on their own research.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/04/30 15:55:00
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
My bank has a crate of these quarters sitting around that have been deemed "in poor taste" to circulate. I think they're May's release for fresh quarters
Lots of bat/covid jokes around
Yeah, thanks for posting this, it brings up something pretty important.
Covid likely, AFAWCK, started from raw batmeat in a chinese wet market.
I just know for a fact a too large segment of humanity will decide to keep this from happening again by "controlling" (read exterminating) bats.
People will not realize bats do a lot of good for humanity by controlling bugs that would eat human food crops. Instead the morons will go on a crusade to wipe out bats because of ignorance and stupidity. Hell. africa is an example of a land without[ enough bats. If they had more the bats might eat enough of those damn locusts to save millions from famine.
The way to prevent things like covid are to regulate these 'wetmarkets' and have far stricter testing for new viral strains, faster reactions to new viral threats, etc.
But no, it's easier to "Go kill all those damn bats!"
China may realize now that killing bats off would likely be a disaster, but I'm afraid other countries might go on a dalek like extermination campaign against bats tho, which would have potentially near apocalyptic results. (Dammit there's no ork screaming in terror icon...)
Bats in the US are all ready being devastated by a Bat disease, white-nose syndrome. it wouldn't take much to do a lot more damage here in the states.
Can anyone point me towards a company or person who is 3D printing the clips for face masks for healthcare workers?
I remember seeing loads of people posting maybe on Facebook in groups, or maybe it was even on Dakka, about providing a load.
I work in a care home and we were meant to be getting some (our poor ears and killing us), so I let all these posts go by. And now we find out we can’t get any. And I can’t seem to find any of these posts anywhere now!
Big oof. I printed about 100 of those for my local hospital. I'd offer to help you out but I ran out of petG to print with. D-USA was printing some in PLA, not sure how that worked out but I think he said it worked.
What I can do is give you the link to a patterns for them if you want to provide it to someone local, and advise you that I think a large paperclip might be a good substitution, although I have not tried it.
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
According to some studies compared death rates in various countries and states at this time of year to the death rates over the last 5 years it appears covid is killing a lot more people than we have been told up to now.
A unbiased non political group compared the average death rates over the last 5 years in some countries like italy, spain, etc and some american states to current ones, not causes of death just the actual numbers of people dying, and concluded the reported covid deaths don't account for the big rise above average this year is seeing.
Estimates show that if covid is responsible, it's death rate is at least 50% higher than we've been told.
I did try to post a link to the article but when I tried to go to the page i got hit in the face with a "sign up!" screen and after 3 time I said this. Sometimes I just don't feel like adding another account name/password to the giant invisible digital chain of them we're all wrapped in now.
Add to that there's less deaths reiated to bad air quality and traffic accidents...
But not surprising. The hospital cases alone isn't uk only counting thing
In Illinois they will count it as a COVID death even if you had underlying conditions per the director of the health department.
Which I think is the better method. The disease exacerbating another condition resulting in death is still a death that should be attributed to Covid-19.
Just like those who died from pneumonia which developed due to flu or HIV or whatever should count for those stats.
I agree. The person was living with a pre-existing condition, corona is what killed them.
Especially if that pre-existing condition was alcoholism
In Illinois they will count it as a COVID death even if you had underlying conditions per the director of the health department.
Which I think is the better method. The disease exacerbating another condition resulting in death is still a death that should be attributed to Covid-19.
Just like those who died from pneumonia which developed due to flu or HIV or whatever should count for those stats.
There's a legal precedence that even if someone was going to die soon anyway, killing them one second sooner than they would have died is still murder and the fact they would have died a second later from something else doesn't matter in the murder case. Yes, that is a legal precedence.
The fictional ronald opus case is cited as an example of this.
And yes, the coroner listed suidide as a cause of death, but that doesn't affect the murder charge as even if someone is executed by the state, the cause of death is listed as a homicide. The official coroner conclusion is not a legal verdict.
The legal ruling is that if it were true the man shot shot opus would be guilty of murder regardless of opus' intent to commit suicide or the fact he'd have dies a second or two later.
So even if covid kills someone a day, an hour or a minute sooner than they would have died of whatever, legally it still killed them and is the cause of death.
For purposes of useful scientific statistics this is a poor standard to use, of course. It shows the difference between legal standards, set by people, and reality.
Scientifically if covid hastens the death of someone with a terminal condition it should probably not be counted as a covid death.
But as they say, "figures can lie because liars can figure". The death tolls and rates are kept by people and people have biases. The death toll will always have some bias in it due to human judgement.
The alternative is to set a "time limit" on murder, which obviously opens up enough problems no legal system wants to deal with it. Because we are all mortal, we are all going to die at some point, and whatever kills us is always going to just be the thing that got there sooner.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 20:27:07
Can anyone point me towards a company or person who is 3D printing the clips for face masks for healthcare workers?
I remember seeing loads of people posting maybe on Facebook in groups, or maybe it was even on Dakka, about providing a load.
I work in a care home and we were meant to be getting some (our poor ears and killing us), so I let all these posts go by. And now we find out we can’t get any. And I can’t seem to find any of these posts anywhere now!
Any help greatly appreciated.
Fenris Games was printing them facebook is playing up a bit for me but the link above should be a repost of their announcement, and the one below is their facebook page but that's not showing me any of their content at the moment.
Don't know if they're still going/have materials but worth a message to check, even if Ian @ Fenris has had to stop he may well know of some other potential printers too
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 20:56:21
Until fairly recently the UK had a law that if you were seriously assaulted and died as a result more than a year and a day later, it couldn't count as murder.
With modern medical technology that became nonsense, and the law was changed.
A similar thing could be applied to Covid. Like if you've got diabetes which might have killed you, and Covid which may have killed you, there should be a decision about what to put on the death certificate.
Of course what's happened is that in a lot of cases, diabetes has been put on the DC, partly because there isn't enough testing for Covid.
Well, yesterday I became an unlicensed barber when I cut my hair with a mirror and a pair of scissors thanks to corona.
Today I became an unlicensed surgeon.
A friend of mine lives with a family member who has little feeling in his feet. He apparently got a dirty splinter in a callous that worked it's way in deep, possibly over a week or more, and had caused a good sized infected spot under his callous. it was over an inch across and not looking good.
His family was leery of him going to a hospital given his health issues and fear of covid. Then my friend remembered he had a buddy who was good with an xacto knife.... Guess who?
I was against it and told them they really needed to get to a doctor, but between their fear for this guy being exposed and their financial issues I got talked into taking a look.
Basically I ended up wearing cleaning gloves and of course a mask, using a brand new xacto blade sterilized with alcohol, and cutting open a thick callous and draining out fluid and some pus. I cut away the callous using snips I usually take parts off sprues with and made sure the splinter was out, then disinfected the open exposed abscess with hydrogen peroxide, iodine (He felt that! ) and putting antibiotic ointment on the spot before covering it with some gauze and tape wrapped found his foot. I tossed the brand new blade, I just couldn't keep it. The snips were too expensive to pitch so got a second washing with alcohol.
I flat out told them if his fever wasn't down in 24 hours to get his to a doctor or ER, period.
I mean it wasn't an ideal situation to be in, but a friend in need and all that. plus after looking at the situation I decided I might be able to do it as I'd cut splinters out of my feet now and then. I'd even lanced a boil with my trusty xacto once.
This is getting weird. I swear if I end up delivering baby I'm gonna scream.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 22:28:35
"But the universe is a big place, and whatever happens, you will not be missed..."
Matt Swain, that's it. That's the story your grandchildren will never believe.
Exalt for peak social isolation!
Klawz-Ramming is a subset of citrus fruit?
Gwar- "And everyone wants a bigger Spleen!"
Mercurial wrote:
I admire your aplomb and instate you as Baron of the Seas and Lord Marshall of Privateers.
Orkeosaurus wrote:Star Trek also said we'd have X-Wings by now. We all see how that prediction turned out.
Orkeosaurus, on homophobia, the nature of homosexuality, and the greatness of George Takei.
English doesn't borrow from other languages. It follows them down dark alleyways and mugs them for loose grammar.
Gitzbitah wrote: Matt Swain, that's it. That's the story your grandchildren will never believe.
Exalt for peak social isolation!
Wouldn't that have been matt taking his mate behind the shed as the point of peak Isolation that is.
Btw at Matt, if he allready had fever then he should've gone allready.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/04/30 22:45:45
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
A unbiased non political group compared the average death rates over the last 5 years in some countries like italy, spain, etc and some american states to current ones, not causes of death just the actual numbers of people dying, and concluded the reported covid deaths don't account for the big rise above average this year is seeing.
I've been posting these numbers for a couple of weeks for the UK when the ONS updates come. We're currently 80% above 5-year average (up to 17.04, so before our peak) but only about half have been attributed to coronavirus. Excess deaths to 5-year average is the stabdard international measure so it's how we'll be able compare nations when it's over (insofar as we can at all).
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/01 06:51:48
According to some studies compared death rates in various countries and states at this time of year to the death rates over the last 5 years it appears covid is killing a lot more people than we have been told up to now.
A unbiased non political group compared the average death rates over the last 5 years in some countries like italy, spain, etc and some american states to current ones, not causes of death just the actual numbers of people dying, and concluded the reported covid deaths don't account for the big rise above average this year is seeing.
Estimates show that if covid is responsible, it's death rate is at least 50% higher than we've been told.
I did try to post a link to the article but when I tried to go to the page i got hit in the face with a "sign up!" screen and after 3 time I said this. Sometimes I just don't feel like adding another account name/password to the giant invisible digital chain of them we're all wrapped in now.
Or, potentially more people are dying from lack of cancer care, or not turning up to hospitals for other reasons, which has been well speculated in recent media.
We already have broad numbers for this. See ONS.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/01 07:47:54
I also ran out of PETG, which can be sterilised. More is due out next week, but it's gold-dust these days.
I have lots of PLA though, if you just needed a mask you can wash.
PM me if you want a couple, as I printed them after the local council took the others to give to the social services teams.
Looks like closing the schools/nurseries could have been a mistake. Hopefully this might get things rolling again.
If parents take the kids in, they'll hang around the playground or on the walk in, and spread it that way.
The children aren't the problem, as you mention, up to the age of 10, it seems.
they concluded that "young children don't transmit the virus".
What about the older kids though?
Teachers have to be there, along with support staff. They'll have to re-organise the school to be able to work safely.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/01 08:19:17
Funny, recently in germany they did actually attempt to find out just how contagious children were and found no difference so far between them and normal virus carriers .
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/01 08:56:39
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
Looks like closing the schools/nurseries could have been a mistake. Hopefully this might get things rolling again.
If parents take the kids in, they'll hang around the playground or on the walk in, and spread it that way.
The children aren't the problem, as you mention, up to the age of 10, it seems.
they concluded that "young children don't transmit the virus".
What about the older kids though?
Teachers have to be there, along with support staff. They'll have to re-organise the school to be able to work safely.
Not if they socially distance.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/01 08:51:34
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/01 08:54:46
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
1750 pts Blood Specters
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
this. Sometimes I just don't feel like adding another account name/password to the giant invisible digital chain of them we're all wrapped in now.
Heresy World Eaters/Emperors Children 
) and putting antibiotic ointment on the spot before covering it with some gauze and tape wrapped found his foot. I tossed the brand new blade, I just couldn't keep it. 
The snips were too expensive to pitch so got a second washing with alcohol.
6000 pts - Harlies: 1000 pts - 
1000 pts - 
1000 pts 