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 reds8n wrote:
...on the subject of the calendar errors

Spoiler:

might have some issues with step 3 there one fears.

Man, you gotta wait until the end of August before restaurants open? Ain't gonna be any restaurants left to open by then. Me? I just got back from eating a burger at Five Guys. It was good. Tasted like freedom.

...feth I miss Five Guys...and all the other places. I bet the first one we get post lockdown will be amazing.

I just want to go to the pub.

I’m friendly, bordering on friends with the bar staff, and you can usually get a good natter from the other locals about all sorts of subjects.

It’s basically a pub as I feel pubs should be. Beer be damned, it’s a social hub to meet new people.

Youve totally inspired me to order pizza now. As I don't wanna go out and its beyond the 9 oclock hour when the coronavirus grimdark shuts down all stores and restaurants aroudn here anyway...
If we are going to save local restaurants from dying before october (or whenever that happens here) we got to be serious about throwing them a little money from time to time.

Also, re the virus, I noticed something quite interesting. The age stratification of known cases in washington state and oregon were vastly different from all other american age group strata -- which nicely dovetails the statements people have made about substrains being different. Does anyone know if the testing in washington state could have artifactually overstated very old people in the PCR / Swab data back in april? Testing regimens vary so much by day and by state, I am hesitant to make much of this, but figured maybe someone knew.

Dukeofstuff wrote:
If we are going to save local restaurants from dying before october (or whenever that happens here) we got to be serious about throwing them a little money from time to time.

It is also amazing what a simple act of normalcy can do for one's state of mind.

When I moved to Japan for study abroad, we were warned that culture shock is a very real thing. It starts with a honeymoon where everything is exciting and new, but then you realize this is the new normal and that things that used to be simple are now an ordeal. Your social situation is different and there are obstacles preventing you from doing the things that used to be comforting to you. This constant frustration and hopelessness eventually gets to you, in a big way.

After about four months of your new normal, a very serious depression sets in - people think "homesick" is a cute little moment of missing your life, but it can be very serious and dangerous. It takes about six months to a year to become fully adjusted to your new environment... but then the study abroad is over and you return home, and what they don't tell you is that now you have reverse culture shock. You have to go through it all over again. I went through a similar thing when I moved to LA (and back) - the depression is real. You can set your watch by it.

There's going to be a lot of consequences from this lockdown, but one that I don't see people mentioning is the very real threat of culture shock happening in maybe a month or two. You're going to have the entire world going through a depression at roughly the exact same time. It's going to be very bad. So make sure you can hold on to whatever normalcy you can, for as long as you can. Try not to change everything all at once.

On the weekend, I've made it a point to order takeout from the places around here to help keep them in business and break up the monotony of sitting at home, I've found it pretty helpful in maintaining sanity and having something to look forward to during the week.

Not gonna lie though, if the quarantine were lifted tomorrow and my work wanted me to go back into the office and commute like I was, I've gone so feral that I'd probably face culture shock, but I'm also a fairly introverted person and don't mind a lot of isolation

That said, for my personal work situation, in our zoom meeting with the C-levels today, its amusingly and increasingly apparent that the old normal just isn't coming back, in large part because the expensive office remodel that was kicked off late last year (instead of moving to a larger office when bespoke warehouse/office space was going up all around us... ) and is expected to wrap up this month to shift cubes/offices to cram more people in the building absolutely does not fit the social distancing guidelines. The new expensive cubes they put in with fancy elevating desks and substantially lower cubicle walls with a 50% greater occupancy density are close enough that everyone can basically stand up and link hands down the cubicle isles, and there's no way to address that except to remodel the office again or...there need to permanently be fewer people in the office, and most of the workforce that isn't required to physically move product or deal with IT hardware or the like has proven that they can do their jobs just fine remotely without commuting across town every day to sit and collectively do spreadsheets in the same enclosure.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 reds8n wrote:
...on the subject of the calendar errors

Spoiler:

might have some issues with step 3 there one fears.

Man, you gotta wait until the end of August before restaurants open? Ain't gonna be any restaurants left to open by then. Me? I just got back from eating a burger at Five Guys. It was good. Tasted like freedom.

How are those WHO terrorists and their propaganda about a flu that wont kill 50k getting on?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
The twitter hashtag #streetparty has A LOT of, err, not positive examples of social distancing across the UK for VE day parties. Presumably mostly showing folks who clap very aggressively on Thursday evenings.

Also in twitter fun, the BBC last night tweeted the headline 'Italy's death toll from the Coronavirus passes 30,000, the highest in the EU' which is some pretty sublime spin.

Oh, the tweet seems to have gone, but they've left the article's headline https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52594570?__twitter_impression=true

 flamingkillamajig wrote:
Not sure if it's been said but apparently they are giving blood transfusions from people that recovered from the illness to people that have it. I suggested this only to a couple internet places but it is most likely this was thought up separately or already being done. Still it's nice to know it was a good idea. I'll post the link when I get on my computer but it should be in a simple search to corona virus.

https://www.covig-19plasmaalliance.org/en-us#recruitment

Yeah like century old idea that was pulled again since no vaccine. Pre vaccine this was fairly common so we know it's safe and used to have effect so potential was here always as well.

nfe wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
Man, you gotta wait until the end of August before restaurants open? Ain't gonna be any restaurants left to open by then. Me? I just got back from eating a burger at Five Guys. It was good. Tasted like freedom.

How are those WHO terrorists and their propaganda about a flu that wont kill 50k getting on?

I always make a point of clicking Filter Thread when he returns.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 reds8n wrote:
...on the subject of the calendar errors

Spoiler:

might have some issues with step 3 there one fears.

Man, you gotta wait until the end of August before restaurants open? Ain't gonna be any restaurants left to open by then. Me? I just got back from eating a burger at Five Guys. It was good. Tasted like freedom.

When a burger tastes like freedom which insinuates we don't seem to have then i am happy for not having one. But then again i am also relevant as a person for my state not just all 4 years just to get ignored again.
You do you do.

Soo Greece...
Last Monday movement restrictions were lifted and with bars and pubs still closed there have been instances of people who congregate in squares buy a drink from the coffee shop and go to enjoy their drink in the square. A LOT of people.
Death toll is thankfully low at 158 with 2.7k infected and diagnosed.
And it appears that the guardian has noted that we are doing quite well...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nTqaG49Tz
Seeing as all news should now be treated as having to advance a narrative i feel the need to ask what do the British Dakkaites think of the Guardian.
The video does say a few things about the deterioration of the Heath system in Greece but the real picture is a lot bleaker. The system threw it's last reserves on the virus and now is teetering on the brink while waiting for the next wave...

konst80hummel wrote:
Soo Greece...
Last Monday movement restrictions were lifted and with bars and pubs still closed there have been instances of people who congregate in squares buy a drink from the coffee shop and go to enjoy their drink in the square. A LOT of people.
Death toll is thankfully low at 158 with 2.7k infected and diagnosed.
And it appears that the guardian has noted that we are doing quite well...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nTqaG49Tz
Seeing as all news should now be treated as having to advance a narrative i feel the need to ask what do the British Dakkaites think of the Guardian.
The video does say a few things about the deterioration of the Heath system in Greece but the real picture is a lot bleaker. The system threw it's last reserves on the virus and now is teetering on the brink while waiting for the next wave...

Well, let's hope people do maintain social distancing for the foreseeable future.
Also i do hope for you that it doesn't escalates.

konst80hummel wrote:

Seeing as all news should now be treated as having to advance a narrative i feel the need to ask what do the British Dakkaites think of the Guardian.

The Guardian is a very liberal left newspaper, typically oriented with / supporting the Liberal Democrat party.

Results of a YouGov survey a few years ago:

Crispy78 wrote:

konst80hummel wrote:

Seeing as all news should now be treated as having to advance a narrative i feel the need to ask what do the British Dakkaites think of the Guardian.

The Guardian is a very liberal left newspaper, typically oriented with / supporting the Liberal Democrat party.

This is not correct. The Guardian is a (traditionally) centre left and socially liberal newspaper. It is primarily associated with the Labour party, though has been an opponent of the Labour left editorially for the last couple decades, leaning more to the Labour right/new Labour. It does have a few very left columnists (Charlie Brooker, for example) but they have never been representative of its editorial position.

The liberal democrats are an economically liberal centre-right party whom the Guardian has been a fierce critic of for decades.

konst80hummel wrote:
Soo Greece...
Last Monday movement restrictions were lifted and with bars and pubs still closed there have been instances of people who congregate in squares buy a drink from the coffee shop and go to enjoy their drink in the square. A LOT of people.
Death toll is thankfully low at 158 with 2.7k infected and diagnosed.
And it appears that the guardian has noted that we are doing quite well...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nTqaG49Tz
Seeing as all news should now be treated as having to advance a narrative i feel the need to ask what do the British Dakkaites think of the Guardian.
The video does say a few things about the deterioration of the Heath system in Greece but the real picture is a lot bleaker. The system threw it's last reserves on the virus and now is teetering on the brink while waiting for the next wave...

The Guardian is very left wing, and is often associated with the BBC, the Labour Party and the ‘Islington Set’...it also has a reputation for spelling mistakes but that’s more of a jokey thing. I still read it though because it’s important to read a wide range of opinions, provided that they’re credible of course.

I think the Independent is the paper associated with the Liberal Democratic Party but I’m not 100% on that.

I'm a guardian reader, believe it or not. Although I don't align with their views. One thing that bugs me is their allowance of profanity on their pages. What's that about?

Anyway we're going off on a tangent.

UK to quarantine new visitors to the country for 14 days. Stable door, horse and bolted come to mind. That should have been in place before we even considered this lockdown.

I'm honestly quite surprised at that. I'm not a regular reader but what I've seen has been more Lib Dem than Labour supporting.

Well the Lib Dem’s and the Blairite faction of Labour (or ‘New’ Labour) are very similar to each other, so there’s bound to be some overlap.

But back to an earlier point; I absolutely want to support local businesses when they start tentatively reopening. There’s a few restaurants and take out places that I’m missing big time, a couple of pubs, the cinemas (what happened with Trolls 2 must have spooked them) and even my barbers.

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:

UK to quarantine new visitors to the country for 14 days. Stable door, horse and bolted come to mind. That should have been in place before we even considered this lockdown.

I think this is more focus group via newspaper leaks. I don't think it'll actually make tomorrow's announcement.

And in news other than the political leanings of newspapers


My mother had her birthday the other day and this lockdown produced a few interesting differences:

1) Even though my family has dispersed steadily over the years and not all make it home for various family events (like birthdays); we've never really done skype chats or such on the day - its more a phone call home and that's it. This year we actually did a video group for singing around the cake.

2) She got more phone calls from random friends/family/distant relative whatevers than in many years. Even from a few she's hardly spoken too in years.


I think this shows that there's certainly a building need for social interaction and that some elements of the old community system are arising back up. I'd even argue that one big difference isn't just the social isolation people are feeling; its the massive slowdown in life for many. For those out of work life has suddenly hit the brakes. There's no parties, events, work, commuting - life has taken a bit slowdown.



Of course I fully accept that for key workers and medical staff life has taken the fully opposite direction and is now a panic station of fear and high work loads.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
...feth I miss Five Guys...and all the other places. I bet the first one we get post lockdown will be amazing.

Luckily some of my favourite burger places are still open on deliveroo


Automatically Appended Next Post:

tneva82 wrote:

 flamingkillamajig wrote:
Not sure if it's been said but apparently they are giving blood transfusions from people that recovered from the illness to people that have it. I suggested this only to a couple internet places but it is most likely this was thought up separately or already being done. Still it's nice to know it was a good idea. I'll post the link when I get on my computer but it should be in a simple search to corona virus.

https://www.covig-19plasmaalliance.org/en-us#recruitment

Yeah like century old idea that was pulled again since no vaccine. Pre vaccine this was fairly common so we know it's safe and used to have effect so potential was here always as well.

It is worth bearing in mind that this is not suitable for wide-scale battling of the virus.

It requires a suitable blood type, from a donor who has had covid-19 and recovered and who also does not have any of the conditions that would prevent them from giving blood. So that can quite severely limit the available blood for treatment of covid patients.

Yes but does provide some help for those suffering from :t worst.

nfe wrote:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:

UK to quarantine new visitors to the country for 14 days. Stable door, horse and bolted come to mind. That should have been in place before we even considered this lockdown.

I think this is more focus group via newspaper leaks. I don't think it'll actually make tomorrow's announcement.

My mistake. This is airlines who've announced it so presumably they've had advance warning.

nfe wrote:How are those WHO terrorists and their propaganda about a flu that wont kill 50k getting on?

You're kidding right? The leader of the WHO, that Tedros guy, is a literal terrorist. He belonged to a organization in Ethiopia that the US has listed as a terrorist group, which ended up taking power and committing genocide against the group that lost. As health minister, he stole aid to children, covered up cholera epidemics, extradited journalists so that they could be tortured in prison, and indebted Ethiopia to China to the tune of billions. He is as corrupt as is possible. His rise to leadership in the WHO is rife with scandal, and as the head of the WHO, he declared Robert Mugabe, a genocidal African warlord, as a "goodwill ambassador" to the WHO (until better minds convinced him to rescind the offer). Also, the WHO has been giving conflicting health advice to the world on behalf of China - so much so that the US insists it will not fund the WHO any longer without a change in leadership and an audit.

Let's sum up. The WHO is run by an ex-terrorist who literally stole medicine from sick children, supports genocidal warlords, and takes marching orders from a totalitarian government that makes dissenting citizens disappear from their homes - I feel COMPLETELY justified in calling the WHO a terrorist organization.

Obviously, with the 50k deaths worldwide, I was off - though I was off in the original idea, which was that this thing was no more dangerous than the flu. But the flu kills about 50k people in the US alone, not worldwide. That was my mistake. The flu is estimated to kill about 290,000 to 645,000 people a year worldwide... which this thing is looking like it will be a healthy part of that balanced breakfast. As the deaths from CV19 goes up, the reported deaths from the flu have gone down. And all evidence is pointing to the fact that lockdowns have had no measurable effect on the spread or severity of the virus since all countries, regardless of measures, follow the same basic curve of infection and we now something close to a control group with Sweden not locking down at all and not being worse for wear.

Just about everything I said back at the beginning of this thread is being born out by study after study, and while people are still scared of this thing, they are much, much less scared, leading to news articles that are starting to admit that the IFR is not 3%-6%, the Imperial College model was complete bs (and having seen the code for it, it's WAY more bs than I originally expected), that lockdowns are security theater that don't affect the spread of the virus, that a vaccine isn't coming any time soon or may not even be possible (but that's okay because we won't need one), and the effects of these lockdowns will harm more people than the virus ever could of. Basically, I've been right from the beginning.

Eldarain wrote:I always make a point of clicking Filter Thread when he returns.

Me thinks the lady doth protest too much. If you were really ignoring me, you wouldn't make a big show about how much you are ignoring me. You'd just do it.

 Sqorgar wrote:

nfe wrote:How are those WHO terrorists and their propaganda about a flu that wont kill 50k getting on?

You're kidding right? The leader of the WHO, that Tedros guy, is a literal terrorist. He belonged to a organization in Ethiopia that the US has listed as a terrorist group, which ended up taking power and committing genocide against the group that lost. As health minister, he stole aid to children, covered up cholera epidemics, extradited journalists so that they could be tortured in prison, and indebted Ethiopia to China to the tune of billions. He is as corrupt as is possible. His rise to leadership in the WHO is rife with scandal, and as the head of the WHO, he declared Robert Mugabe, a genocidal African warlord, as a "goodwill ambassador" to the WHO (until better minds convinced him to rescind the offer).

This is a hell of a goalpost move, as now you're talking about an individual's past, not the organization or its present actions or utility. Lots of international organizations get eyebrow raising appointees, it's the nature of the game and it's fair to call them out when it happens, but that's not the same thing as the organization itself. That's not to say WHO is perfect or beyond criticism, but you're going way off the deep end here.

Also, the WHO has been giving conflicting health advice to the world on behalf of China - so much so that the US insists it will not fund the WHO any longer without a change in leadership and an audit.

Um...you do realize that this was entirely a domestic political decision made to deflect blame by a dude who literally said he took responsibility for nothing while simultaneously claiming absolute power and authority that the US constitution clearly did not grant, and who is at least as corrupt as anyone you're referring to? The same dude who actively promoted a quack cure, and thought that injecting disinfectant and shining bright lights inside the body were things being actively medically investigated? Literally nobody buys that the US stopped funding WHO for any of these reason, there's a reason nobody else on the entire planet has followed suit.

Just about everything I said back at the beginning of this thread is being born out by study after study, and while people are still scared of this thing, they are much, much less scared, leading to news articles that are starting to admit that the IFR is not 3%-6%

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#country-by-country-data-on-the-pandemic

World case fatality rate with data available as of today is ~7% and ~6% in the US.

 Sqorgar wrote:


might have some issues with step 3 there one fears.

Man, you gotta wait until the end of August before restaurants open? Ain't gonna be any restaurants left to open by then. Me? I just got back from eating a burger at Five Guys. It was good. Tasted like freedom.

CFR will always be higher, and in this case where there are asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that aren't recorded it will likely be significantly higher than the overall IFR, which, as already been mentioned is likely below 1%

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

This is a wonderful tool where you can compare countries data. Some manual conversions are necessary, as some countries report deaths per million, and others report overall deaths.

The USA, has a death per million rate of 233.17, and has been on some measure of restriction or shutdown for over a month.

Sweden, if we're using it as our litmus test of doing nothing, has a death per million rate of 297.16. This was calculated from the reported overall deaths by coronavirus of 3175, and the population of Sweden which was given as 10.23 million.

By that factor, the social distancing measures the United States put in place have already saved 21,001.518 lives.

Contrasting that with any of the truly effective track and trace nations, Say, South Korea, and you get a deaths per million of 0.201.

What data do you have that supports the idea that social distancing and lockdown has done nothing, Sqorgar?

Of even more interests is all of the data coming from Denmark and Sweden, because in every environmental way they're as identical as we're likely to get- but their response to the Coronavirus has been on both sides of the spectrum.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-deaths-sweden-denmark

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-sweden-and-denmark-represent-opposite-scandinavian-covid-19-responses

There are other factors that need to be considered though, that can't always be plugged into that data. The amount of infected people arriving in countries, which starts the spreading events etc. As far as I'm aware Sweden had lots of people returning from Italy and central Europe. I might be wrong but I think this is why Britain's rate is so high. We probably had more people arriving with the virus at that peak time than say, Germany with its very low numbers.

You've also got to consider the general mobility of the population within the country. Some nations feature more isolated populations with less general mobility between them. Others have huge population centres (cities) that comprise large percentages of their population total. So if one city gets infected the country's rate is shown to be very high - even though lockdown and social isolation might well have great benefits in protecting the smaller urban and also rural communities.