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queen_annes_revenge wrote: The threat level is low. too low to blanket restrict freedoms the way they are, and the case for that is dropping daily..
As planned, as part of the lockdown? They expected, and saw, the number of cases spike after VE day celebrations got boozy.
I stand by my earlier point that more and more people will begin to ignore the 'Rules' through fatigue, or just generally not being able to handle it anymore.
These people are the only way that the number of cases can go up. If infected people have contact with uninfected people, new cases happen. There is no other way for it to happen.
If people trickle out on their own, they are the reason the lockdown gets extended. If everyone stayed inside, the cases drop, and the restrictions get lifted. These people are why we are where we are now.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 10:04:18
queen_annes_revenge wrote: The beds are there. Were there even at the peak (which multiple reputable scientists would say came before lockdown was implemented) this is my point.
Oh gee what a surprise. Lockdown is done TO REDUCE INFECTION RATE and you are claiming it was not needed WHEN THE LOCKDOWNS ARE DOING WHAT THEY WERE DESIGNED TO DO!?!
The whole point of lockdowns was to ensure beds don't run. They didn't run BECAUSE LOCKDOWN DID WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO!
I hope you are just trolling and pretending to not see that.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: I'm dissonant because I dont believe this is as bad as the media makes out. I dont believe that a disease with a ~<1% IFR is worth effectively shutting down the entire country (and planet) for, especially considering the potential economic fallout.
The 1% is because the other 99% can get the care they need to recover.
If the beds weren't there, the 1% would be far higher. Or, if not fatal, the after-effects would be much more serious.
The lockdown is there to let the 99% get better, properly. It is not to stop the 1% happening.
How many of the 1% dying of this are doing so outside the health care system? How many died at home, or in a care-home? Would the 1% be lower if everyone who caught it were in a hospital bed.
It's always the same. If nothing is done people complain nothing is done when gak hits the fan. If it's done people are "it's overreaction". Same thing with standards. Few appreciate benefits of them because they are invisible except for inconveniences when they are there because they prevent the worse scenarios. Don't have those or they are ignored and people then complain why nothing is done.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: The threat level is low. too low to blanket restrict freedoms the way they are, and the case for that is dropping daily..
As planned, as part of the lockdown? They expected, and saw, the number of cases spike after VE day celebrations got boozy.
I stand by my earlier point that more and more people will begin to ignore the 'Rules' through fatigue, or just generally not being able to handle it anymore.
These people are the only way that the number of cases can go up. If infected people have contact with uninfected people, new cases happen. There is no other way for it to happen.
If people trickle out on their own, they are the reason the lockdown gets extended. If everyone stayed inside, the cases drop, and the restrictions get lifted. These people are why we are where we are now.
The problem is now that the UK hasn't yet implemented an effective tracking and isolation process, so in effect the lockdown time (and from which people are starting to feel fatigue - if the bustling masses outside my local B&Q over the weekend were any indication) has been been wasted. Cases have dropped significantly following the lockdown (believe Sunday was first day <200 deaths) but there is still a high rate of infection and the virus has not gone anywhere. Following the next bank holiday on Monday, I would be very surprised if we are not on a significant upward curve again in early June.
From the information I have read about schools being on lockdown, apparently closing schools is most effective before the exponential growth level gets too high. So arguably the moment for that to be in effect has long since passed. That being said, other countries in a better position than the UK have seen their R-rate go close to 1 again following re-opening, even with ridiculous measures in place (we have all seen the pictures of children stood in drawn chalk squares in playgrounds). I can completely understand the economic and social argument for getting kids back in school - a few people I know have been driven to the point of destruction by trying to work and child care. But should schools be re-opened, and the lives of teachers, school workers and everyone else the children come into contact with, spreading the virus from family to family, be put at risk? Absolutely not.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: The beds are there. Were there even at the peak (which multiple reputable scientists would say came before lockdown was implemented) this is my point.
Oh gee what a surprise. Lockdown is done TO REDUCE INFECTION RATE and you are claiming it was not needed WHEN THE LOCKDOWNS ARE DOING WHAT THEY WERE DESIGNED TO DO!?!
The whole point of lockdowns was to ensure beds don't run. They didn't run BECAUSE LOCKDOWN DID WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO!
I hope you are just trolling and pretending to not see that.
I'll keep dragging out this dead horse if you want to keep flogging it.
Theres no way you can say with any certainty that lockdowns are the cause. this has been my point for the whole of the entire last page.
'Lockdowns work because they work' or 'lockdowns work because we want them to work' is about as good as it gets.
I'm not even going to entertain your graph. it is completely meaningless other than as an adendum to your moot assertion above.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 10:24:31
If lockdowns didn't cause the reduction in cases then what did? What element in life changed to suddenly reduce the rampant spreading of the disease?
Furthermore if lockdowns do not cause reduction in case spread why is it that when lockdowns end and things start to drift back to normal there's an uptake in cases?
queen_annes_revenge wrote: The beds are there. Were there even at the peak (which multiple reputable scientists would say came before lockdown was implemented) this is my point.
Oh gee what a surprise. Lockdown is done TO REDUCE INFECTION RATE and you are claiming it was not needed WHEN THE LOCKDOWNS ARE DOING WHAT THEY WERE DESIGNED TO DO!?!
The whole point of lockdowns was to ensure beds don't run. They didn't run BECAUSE LOCKDOWN DID WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO!
I hope you are just trolling and pretending to not see that.
I'll keep dragging out this dead horse if you want to keep flogging it.
Theres no way you can say with any certainty that lockdowns are the cause. this has been my point for the whole of the entire last page.
'Lockdowns work because they work' or 'lockdowns work because we want them to work' is about as good as it gets.
I'm not even going to entertain your graph. it is completely meaningless other than as an adendum to your moot assertion above.
Which is probably why you failed to respond to my last point yet.
Again
queen_annes_revenge wrote: You're trying, and somewhat succeeding in tying me in knots by trying to make the death rate the main consideration here. that was not my point. the point was the curve, and its path. how high the curve is on the death rate is irrelevant, as I said. regardless of lockdown or no, the curve is now (in most places) plateauing, or starting to angle downwards
So, I guess you could go so far as to extrapolate the fact that lockdowns may prevent higher levels of deaths, but its only a may, as the myriad other factors, those that cant be shown on the graphs, could be a larger contributing factor (in my opinion)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 10:55:33
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
And you ignored mine. Cases, deaths, high or low. Doesn't matter. The curve is the same. You can see it on the second graph. To put it simply the lines all go in the same direction.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Overread wrote: If lockdowns didn't cause the reduction in cases then what did? What element in life changed to suddenly reduce the rampant spreading of the disease?
Furthermore if lockdowns do not cause reduction in case spread why is it that when lockdowns end and things start to drift back to normal there's an uptake in cases?
The virus taking its natural course. Regardless.
You all seem to be missing the fact that I'm not saying lockdowns don't have any affect, I'm saying that any effect they do have is minimal, and not the main factor in the virus pattern
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 11:16:41
queen_annes_revenge wrote: And you ignored mine. Cases, deaths, high or low. Doesn't matter. The curve is the same. You can see it on the second graph. To put it simply the lines all go in the same direction.
Are you serious right now? You are saying that all these curves are the same:
If so, please go and study some calculus.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 11:27:16
The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.
Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: The beds are there. Were there even at the peak (which multiple reputable scientists would say came before lockdown was implemented) this is my point.
Saying 'lockdown has worked' is just an assertion. There is no solid empirical evidence to back this up. It just is.
Unherd even got a lockdown advocate on to put forward her case, and it basically surmounted to the circular argument of : lockdowns work because they work, occams razor says so.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
queen_annes_revenge wrote: And you ignored mine. Cases, deaths, high or low. Doesn't matter. The curve is the same. You can see it on the second graph. To put it simply the lines all go in the same direction.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Overread wrote: If lockdowns didn't cause the reduction in cases then what did? What element in life changed to suddenly reduce the rampant spreading of the disease?
Furthermore if lockdowns do not cause reduction in case spread why is it that when lockdowns end and things start to drift back to normal there's an uptake in cases?
The virus taking its natural course. Regardless.
You all seem to be missing the fact that I'm not saying lockdowns don't have any affect, I'm saying that any effect they do have is minimal, and not the main factor in the virus pattern
The goalpost has just evolved into an ent and decided to take a trip to the center of the universe.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 11:34:15
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: And you ignored mine. Cases, deaths, high or low. Doesn't matter. The curve is the same. You can see it on the second graph. To put it simply the lines all go in the same direction.
Are you serious right now? You are saying that all these curves are the same:
Spoiler:
If so, please go and study some calculus.
Thank you
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
The goalpost has just evolved into an ent and decided to take a trip to the center of the universe.
OK.
Being wilfully ignorant of my posts is fine. All my posts have said words to the effect of: lockdowns are not the main factor. Not that they have no effect.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 11:38:41
The goalpost has just evolved into an ent and decided to take a trip to the center of the universe.
OK.
Being wilfully ignorant of my posts is fine. All my posts have said words to the effect of: lockdowns are not the main factor. Not that they have no effect.
I literally went a page back and quoted and underlined your statement, quoted and underlined the statement on the next page, after disproving your position of lack of verifyable empirical evidecne with your own dataset. and you call me ignorant of your position?
Even though i was one of the few who even entertained your point and came out atleast partially in support of your views over the course of this thread especially in regards to emergency powers, etc.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 11:47:52
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
The goalpost has just evolved into an ent and decided to take a trip to the center of the universe.
OK.
Being wilfully ignorant of my posts is fine. All my posts have said words to the effect of: lockdowns are not the main factor. Not that they have no effect.
I literally went a page back and quoted and underlined your statement, quoted and underlined the statement on the next page, after disproving your position of lack of verifyable empirical evidecne with your own dataset. and you call me ignorant of your position?
Even though i was one of the few who even entertained your point and came out atleast partially in support of your views over the course of this thread especially in regards to emergency powers, etc.
You underlined my statement saying that stating lockdowns have worked is un provable. That is not the same as saying they have no effect. You are literally twisting my words to suit your counterpoint. I'm not trying to be confrontational, but accusing me of moving goalposts while intentionally or not, misreading my points is not exactly conductive to any debate.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: They're all following the same trajectory. It's really not that hard to understand.
Apparently it is hard to understand, because you clearly don't. Those graphs do not show the same "trajectory" at all. As ATCM says, you need to learn some calculus. The evidence we have is that lockdowns are effective at controlling the spread of the virus and are in fact one of the main weapons we have in the fight against the virus. Those facts being inconvenient to the conclusion you wish to draw doesn't change them.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:09:24
I havent blocked you. I just didnt reply to your last post because it was just an assertion that people leaving their homes will cause the lockdown to be extended, and are at fault for spreading this virus.
Edit. I didnt see the other post after. apologies.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:33:40
Few years back, my Dad had a minor heart attack. Few stents and a change of lifestyle later and he’s fine and dandy.
Because there was space in a hospital for him.
My Mum finally lost her cancer battle last year. She’d been fighting it through various treatments for around a decade. Chemo, tupenny-all-out etc.
Because the health service had the time and resources.
When I was 16 and just starting to sit my GCSEs? Yeah my appendix ruptured. Emergency operation later, and here I am.
Because the health service had the time and resources.
Remember, we’re truly spoiled in the modern day. Broken limbs are rarely fatal. Even coronavirus is relatively rarely fatal. Because, for now, we have the resources to tackle it. Ventilators etc.
But just because you survive it, doesn’t mean you survive it unscathed. Facebook friend has had the virus. He’s not dead - but his lungs are permanently damaged.
Routine but life saving treatments could be lost if this spirals out of control. That’s an ever higher death toll, linked to, but not directly caused by coronavirus.
The more cases in a given hospital, the higher the risk to hospital staff. What happens if Doctors and Nurses start coming down with it? Ever greater strain. The greater the strain, the greater the death toll.
I lost my Mum last year, because sadly her cancer became incurable. I am not prepared to lose anyone else, not from something actually avoidable.
By all means be sceptical. Definitely question advice. But for now? As long as you’re following it? We’re golden. But those Words Not Allowed on Dakka flouting it? The idiots demanding their barber go back to work etc? Those claiming this is all just a conspiracy by Big Pharma whilst entirely coincidentally flogging their own ‘miracle cures’ (which certainly isn’t bleach, despite it smelling like bleach and actually being bleach it’s definitely not actually bleach)? The morons burning down 5G towers? No. No no no.
Because I’ve been round the block often enough and seen enough of the world’s dark sense of humour to know, inexplicably, they all too rarely carry the can for the harm they cause others.
To get melodramatic? Give me a list of 100 people you know. This list must include your nuclear family and extended family, and your friends. I’ll then roll a D100 twice to determine who dies from Coronavirus.
When you put it like that it sends chills down your spine.
To try and stay positive, I’ve had a couple of moral boosts today. First, the Subway has opened up again. No meatball marinaras in stock, but that Italian BMT I had felt like the best sandwich ever made.
I also encountered my old history teacher at the garage, who I was pleased to see was doing just fine at this time and who was also happy to hear about my degree. Social distance maintained at all times of course.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: They're all following the same trajectory. It's really not that hard to understand.
Apparently it is hard to understand, because you clearly don't. Those graphs do not show the same "trajectory" at all. As ATCM says, you need to learn some calculus. The evidence we have is that lockdowns are effective at controlling the spread of the virus and are in fact one of the main weapons we have in the fight against the virus. Those facts being inconvenient to the conclusion you wish to draw doesn't change them.
Still waiting.
If youre going to accuse someone of not understanding something, the courteous thing is to show them why they are misunderstanding, instead of just insinuating stupidity.
'You must show that a man is wrong before you start explaining why he is wrong. The modern method is to assume without discussion that he is wrong and then distract his attention from this (the only real issue) by busily explaining how he became so silly.' - Bulverism.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:24:56
Look at the scaling, Compare the picture from ATCM the left branch and then at the one from Skinnereal.
Simply put, logarithmic scales are usefull for longterm trends, economically speaking, and linear are for short term. (this is just for economical and longterm investment strategies usefull )
Meaning that sweden beeing just slightly above the comparable nations means a bigger difference then you'd assume at a first glance.
Basically the logarithmic scale allows for a way of displaying numerical data over a very wide range of values in a compact way with the sideeffect that huge differences look small.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:35:49
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: They're all following the same trajectory. It's really not that hard to understand.
Apparently it is hard to understand, because you clearly don't. Those graphs do not show the same "trajectory" at all. As ATCM says, you need to learn some calculus. The evidence we have is that lockdowns are effective at controlling the spread of the virus and are in fact one of the main weapons we have in the fight against the virus. Those facts being inconvenient to the conclusion you wish to draw doesn't change them.
Still waiting.
If youre going to accuse someone of not understanding something, the courteous thing is to show them why they are misunderstanding, instead of just insinuating stupidity.
'You must show that a man is wrong before you start explaining why he is wrong. The modern method is to assume without discussion that he is wrong and then distract his attention from this (the only real issue) by busily explaining how he became so silly.' - Bulverism.
What a pretentious load of crap. Half of this thread is chock full of people explaining why you're wrong and here you are belting the same nonsense a hundred pages later. Why should they bother if you're clearly not interested in listening?
queen_annes_revenge wrote: They're all following the same trajectory. It's really not that hard to understand.
Apparently it is hard to understand, because you clearly don't. Those graphs do not show the same "trajectory" at all. As ATCM says, you need to learn some calculus. The evidence we have is that lockdowns are effective at controlling the spread of the virus and are in fact one of the main weapons we have in the fight against the virus. Those facts being inconvenient to the conclusion you wish to draw doesn't change them.
Still waiting.
If youre going to accuse someone of not understanding something, the courteous thing is to show them why they are misunderstanding, instead of just insinuating stupidity.
'You must show that a man is wrong before you start explaining why he is wrong. The modern method is to assume without discussion that he is wrong and then distract his attention from this (the only real issue) by busily explaining how he became so silly.' - Bulverism.
What a pretentious load of crap. Half of this thread is chock full of people explaining why you're wrong and here you are belting the same nonsense a hundred pages later. Why should they bother if you're clearly not interested in listening?
Its called debate. if no one presented a dissenting opinion then we'd all just be sheep wouldnt we. but sorry sir. I'll be quiet now..
have a word.
No one here knows the objective fact of any matter discussed in this thread. because the world doesnt know. we're still in the middle of it. thats why we discuss things.
Skinnereal wrote: Change it to linear scale, and the graphs are obviously very different...
You're gonna need to host that image somewhere else (imgur for example) as dakka doesn't let you host non-wargaming content.
But yes, it does demonstrate perfectly that QAR doesn't understand calculus and how logarithmic scales work.
So explain it then Einstein, instead of just engaging in outright ad hominem.
Look at the y-axis scale. On the logarithmic scale each increment is 10 times larger than the previous (100 cases, 1000 cases, 10k cases, 100k cases etc.), so this is a logarithmic plot in base 10.
So although the shape looks the same and they seem to be quite close together, that is not the case.
This is clearly shown when you switch to linear scale in which you can see that the rate of increase of cases in Sweden is still trending upwards at pretty much the same rate, whereas the others are slowing (and Norway seems to have plateaued for the moment).
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:41:34
The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.
Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
Not Online!!! wrote: Look at the scaling, Compare the picture from ATCM the left branch and then at the one from Skinnereal.
Simply put, logarithmic scales are usefull for longterm trends, economically speaking, and linear are for short term. (this is just for economical and longterm investment strategies usefull )
Meaning that sweden beeing just slightly above the comparable nations means a bigger difference then you'd assume at a first glance.
Basically the logarithmic scale allows for a way of displaying numerical data over a very wide range of values in a compact way with the sideeffect that huge differences look small.
but changing it to linear, on the second graph on this page shows most countries levelling off to a similar degree, barring a couple of outliers. (Brazil, US)
If those lines are still rising, why are the death rates dropping?
Skinnereal wrote: Change it to linear scale, and the graphs are obviously very different...
You're gonna need to host that image somewhere else (imgur for example) as dakka doesn't let you host non-wargaming content.
But yes, it does demonstrate perfectly that QAR doesn't understand calculus and how logarithmic scales work.
So explain it then Einstein, instead of just engaging in outright ad hominem.
Look at the y-axis scale. On the logarithmic scale each increment is 10 times larger than the previous (100 cases, 1000 cases, 10k cases, 100k cases etc.), so this is a logarithmic plot in base 10.
So although the shape looks the same and they seem to be quite close together, that is not the case.
This is clearly shown when you switch to linear scale in which you can see that the rate of increase of cases in Sweden is still trending upwards at pretty much the same rate, whereas the others are slowing (and Norway seems to have plateaued for the moment).
Thank you. that was useful. I did not realise that you could change the graphs.
Ok, I can see the difference putting them all in on that scale. still though, you can put other countries in with lockdowns and they are higher still, I'd imagine being caused by other factors, which is what I was getting at originally.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/19 12:47:03
If those lines are still rising, why are the death rates dropping?
politics.a few pages back there was an exemple of an intervention of politicians against medical expertise.
Russia is another exemple.
And if i may wager a bet, china fudges the numbers aswell.
Same with brazil which is at a point were cartells enforce meassures over the state and had a whole political issue going on between bolsonaro and his medical minister.
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
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