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I think it is important to understand the difference between EU countries negotiating with themselves, as in the Eurozone crisis, and the EU negotiating with third countries. It is a different dynamic.
For example, on the Widthdrawal Agreement, the UK absolutely capitulated on all of it, basically going back to an earlier position that was more beneficial to the EU (border in the Irish sea) which the UK had actually negotiated past.

I expect there will be some compromises, but I also think it is likely there might be a "no deal by accident".

What is clear is that there not being a deal in place by now is an absolute disgrace, and the time limit should never have been imposed by the British.

 Arbitrator wrote:
Anybody who's read anything on EU decision making knows things pretty much always go one second to midnight before signing on the dotted line. I'd be very surprised if it becomes a No Deal situation, as neither side wants that - even if it's the EU who has to budge a little, although I fully expect the UK government to silently capitulate on a lot of 'quieter' (see: not fishing) stuff as well.

You're underestimating the frothing going on over here. There is a portion of British society that would "love" a no deal, sticking it to Jonny foreigner and wot not.
Sadly some of them are in Govt, many are in the Tory party and they have the whip hand. They would absolutely go for a No Deal if they thought it would be better for the conservative party and damn the consequences to the rest of the country.

Interestingly I read online that Games workshop is worth more to the British economy than the entire fishing industry. I doubt it, but it's bizarre that at the moment we seem to be willing to chuck everything under the bus for an industry that frankly wouldnt be noticed by the economy if it vanished tomorrow.

 Skinnereal wrote:

As someone above said, Wayland and Element going behind the UK-EU Brexit wall means smaller resellers get the chance to fill in for their own markets. Waylands loss can be some other caompany's gain.

Smaller companies need to get more out of box than rpp. How many bits seller you expect to have market room?

Plus starting whole company hoping it has market room rather than end up ending　in expensive mistake is bit extreme. Not many have sufficient cash to risk it


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 Arbitrator wrote:
Anybody who's read anything on EU decision making knows things pretty much always go one second to midnight before signing on the dotted line. I'd be very surprised if it becomes a No Deal situation, as neither side wants that - even if it's the EU who has to budge a little, although I fully expect the UK government to silently capitulate on a lot of 'quieter' (see: not fishing) stuff as well.

In case you haven't noticed it single market is worth lot more than uk market.　hell corona is already lot more expensive than worst no deal. Uk is not priority for eu. Single market is. Eu won't budge on that. Especially as time works on their favour.

And remember withdrawal agreement? That　was uk 100% surrender going back to what eu had originally wanted and uk had originally rejected...

Edit: also flat out time. Any deal would have to pass regional parliament. After tuesday earliest that is possible is february. Note　average time to scrutiny and approve negotiated treaties is 136 days...going to be quite a rushed through either way.

Didn't things recently just get dialed up to 11 in the UK because of the new Strain of Grandfather Nurgles Nipple Juice #19 that spreads like butter on hot toast? That's going to possibly have a huge impact on table top war games. As more stuff happens as a result fewer people working etc.


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 lord_blackfang wrote:
Even more incentive for garage companies and consumers to switch to purely digital, 3d printable product.

I disagree here it seems to be self-diminishing. The amount of work time and effort required to make 3D models greatly outweighs what people are willing to pay for it. Meaning that unless you're sculpting yourself like you and I. It's harder for companies to afford sculptors. And a lot fo the stuff just ends up on online for free. Discouraging artists from putting a digital copy online

One of the reasons I will only sell limited STL files online is because it will be ripped off and I won't get paid for it once it ends up on an STL 3D dumpsite. .

It's also essentially like planned obsolescence what happens when everyone has all the STL files they can afford? The market dies.

Sure you can make a quick 10$ selling dumps online. But it's killing the artists and industry.

Less and less people are willing to pay for physical models meaning artists get the crap end of the stick.

I know personally that people willing to pay for sculpting has already been cut down to nearly zero. I have people inqure about it every day but they want sculpting for 10$ a model or less. Because you can buy STL stuff online cheap.

Meaning that I have to raise my prices, and I know other artists that are doing the same. On average you're looking at 400$ to 7000$ dollars for sculpting models on the commercial end of original characters. A lot of people assume it's only like 50$ It costs more than 50$ to turn the lights on and run the PC for the amount of time it takes to model something complex. Similar to the issues with bitcoin mining diminished returns due to electricity bills.



If the artist does not make a return on their investment it kills the industry and can destroy careers. And I know from observation that the majority of the stuff free online is just a copy of some poor guys work that's not getting paid for it. All it takes is one guy in Russia or some far-off country to take your stuff and copy it and you're done. You might get some backers but I'm pretty sure you will not make back the amount of time the hundreds of hours required to sculpt something like a line of miniatures. Why would I or any artist even bother there are labour jobs that pay 100$ an hour or more like moving.

All I can say that if I sell models it's going to be physical copies of the models that I produce in house with resin casting or plastic injection. It seems like the only way to make money from it safely. Anyone considering doing only digital is just shooting themselves in the foot. Real money is in physical production.

I can tell you personally that I hope the STL market dies soon and I know other artists that feel the same. It really really really sucks for us.

 Pacific wrote:
Interesting article, in answer to tneva82's question..

tneva82 wrote:
Better hurry up. Fw has been slower than usual lately. When customs kick in? Based on day of purchase? Or when it arrives? Year end is pretty close so arrival could go to next year

Not even the boss of Hornby knows

Hornby boss Lyndon Davies said: "Within Europe people are already asking us: 'If I buy something, are those tariffs already included in your pricing?' Because we don't know what's going to happen, it's just a very difficult position."

Back to this just read that at least finland charges import fees based on when packet was sent. Before 1.1.2021? No import fee even if arrives after. Can't say if that applies other countries though.

Oh and was told by 3 different sources games workshop is worth more to uk than entire shipping industry. Pretty crazy.

There are many industries that are worth vastly more than the fishing industry, which will all potentially receive a shotgun blast to the kneecap come 1st Jan.

I think the 'fishing' thing has become louder than it should have in the press and government coverage just because of the narrative of 'defending our waters', as though we're about to get fething Nelson out of cold storage and start taking the fight to Napoleon again.

Re. this hobby, am definitely noticing more updates from hobby companies now saying about getting orders in before Jan 1st, the deadline approaches!

I feel so sorry for the smaller cottage industries (of which there are so many in wargaming) that are potentially facing a major impact to their sales in a few weeks time, on top of everything else that is going on at the moment.

 Pacific wrote:
There are many industries that are worth vastly more than the fishing industry, which will all potentially receive a shotgun blast to the kneecap come 1st Jan.

I think the 'fishing' thing has become louder than it should have in the press and government coverage just because of the narrative of 'defending our waters', as though we're about to get fething Nelson out of cold storage and start taking the fight to Napoleon again.

tt's even more funny when you consider that UK doesn't eat generally fish on british fishing waters and instead export vast majority of their catch but export is going to decrease due to tariffs and delays(not fresh anymore). Meanwhile until UK and EU gets agreement both are going to lose access to Norway's fishing waters which is the primary source of fish for UK's fish&chips. So get control of fish you don't eat, lose access to fish you do eat.

Time to market new type of fish for fish&chips?-)

tneva82 wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
There are many industries that are worth vastly more than the fishing industry, which will all potentially receive a shotgun blast to the kneecap come 1st Jan.

I think the 'fishing' thing has become louder than it should have in the press and government coverage just because of the narrative of 'defending our waters', as though we're about to get fething Nelson out of cold storage and start taking the fight to Napoleon again.

tt's even more funny when you consider that UK doesn't eat generally fish on british fishing waters and instead export vast majority of their catch but export is going to decrease due to tariffs and delays(not fresh anymore). Meanwhile until UK and EU gets agreement both are going to lose access to Norway's fishing waters which is the primary source of fish for UK's fish&chips. So get control of fish you don't eat, lose access to fish you do eat.

Time to market new type of fish for fish&chips?-)

Dont think we are any different, when it comes to fish, export is more important then national consumption and we export a very large amount of what we pull out from the sea.

But yea, seems this issue on the brexit is 100% political. uk want to take back more controll, but eu cant give more away cus several eu countrys are dependent on uk fishing grounds.
This could very well be one of the key notes that prevents a deal.

tneva82 wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
There are many industries that are worth vastly more than the fishing industry, which will all potentially receive a shotgun blast to the kneecap come 1st Jan.

I think the 'fishing' thing has become louder than it should have in the press and government coverage just because of the narrative of 'defending our waters', as though we're about to get fething Nelson out of cold storage and start taking the fight to Napoleon again.

tt's even more funny when you consider that UK doesn't eat generally fish on british fishing waters and instead export vast majority of their catch but export is going to decrease due to tariffs and delays(not fresh anymore). Meanwhile until UK and EU gets agreement both are going to lose access to Norway's fishing waters which is the primary source of fish for UK's fish&chips. So get control of fish you don't eat, lose access to fish you do eat.

Time to market new type of fish for fish&chips?-)

gak, I love Cod & Chips.

To quote the most erudite Mr Blackadder, "Give the likes of Baldrick the vote and we'll be back to cavorting druids, death by stoning, and pickled herring for dinner."

I propose the revocation of universal suffrage.

GW have come out today to say that EU prices won't go up.

"Good news – Warhammer fans in the EU won’t have to pay more for our products in-store or online as we head into the new year. While the details of the UK’s future relationship with the EU are still being worked out, Games Workshop will shoulder any customs and duties fees that apply to your order."

Yet they failed to answer my question whether that will also apply to Forge World products. As far as I'm aware - it won't, so EU customers can say hello to around 25% price increase.

As expected, multiple news outlets are reporting that agreement has been reached on the final few sticking points and that a deal will be announced shortly.

No hint of what it looks like yet, but the EU has a history of brinkmanship when it comes to trade deals, so that it has run this close is no surprise.

The EU offered to extend the transition, the UK refused.
I think you have it the wrong way around.

But I hope for the sake of British businesses that there is a deal!

No, not at all. If transition had been extended then things would have rumbled on until the eleventh hour of whatever the new deadline was set to.

It's just the way the EU negotiates.

Well, it isn't normal to negotiate a free trade agreement to a deadline. Normally the EU just keeps negotiating until it gets what it wants, but there is no great downside to that as the status quo persists in the absence of a deal. With this deal it is a bit different as there is a major downside to not getting a deal within a time limit, as it will cause economic damage to both sides. So it is a very different dynamic to a normal free trade deal negotiation. I don't think you can compare it to any previous free trade negotiation by the EU because none of them had deadlines, and all of them were about improving trade terms whereas this one is about making them worse. So I don't think what you are saying is true for free trade agreements.

In negotiations between Member States, they definitely do always negotiate down to the wire and often compromise amongst themselves, but not in negotiations with non-members.

They don't often negotiate from a starting point of free trade with a former member either, but here we are. This has as many similarities with intra member negotiations as it does differences, but since I saw some correspondent or pundit mention this months ago and determined to look out for it, it's been glaring.

It is a common trope about the EU, I think it was true during the Eurozone crisis particularly. But I think people don't watch them negotiate trade deals very much, because they are mostly pretty boring (CETA and TTIP were exceptions, because the investor courts were so contraversial).

If the rumours about the trade deal are true, it'll be "tariff-free trade in goods [...] It will also cover issues such as police and security co-operation and preserve the cross-border energy market, but it will do little for the services sector. (FT.com)".

Miniatures should definitely be covered, so zero tariffs on goods means no change at all (maybe longer shipping times, but that should be it).

To be confirmed the possibility to order from UK retailers from the EU. I personally doubt we'd be able to, but we'll see.

Any negotiation about anything between anyone and anyone else that actually has a deadline is very likely to go right up to that deadline, because there's always scope to get more of what you want (or more concessions from the other side) right up until the last moment. It's not something unique to the EU (or to the UK for that matter). It's just the overwhelmingly most likely result of negotiating to a deadline.

since I saw some correspondent or pundit mention this months ago and determined to look out for it

So, a combination of British journos/pundits using the same old tired stereotypes/propaganda about the EU that got us into this mess in the first place, plus plain old confirmation bias. Got it.

 CragHack wrote:
Yet they failed to answer my question whether that will also apply to Forge World products. As far as I'm aware - it won't, so EU customers can say hello to around 25% price increase.

Purchasers outside the UK/EU pay VAT when buying from FW right? (or that used to be the case at least)

If so I'd expect it to fall into the 'more expensive' option or category, whichever way that turns out.

 Pacific wrote:

 CragHack wrote:
Yet they failed to answer my question whether that will also apply to Forge World products. As far as I'm aware - it won't, so EU customers can say hello to around 25% price increase.

Purchasers outside the UK/EU pay VAT when buying from FW right? (or that used to be the case at least)


If so I'd expect it to fall into the 'more expensive' option or category, whichever way that turns out.

correct, we pay VAT on everything, even digital entertainment.

thats why import is so bloody expensive for the single induvidual. VAT+ shipping + local tax.

No hard Brexit.
Let's see what this means for the UK industries.

What? This is a REALLY hard brexit! Nothing like this was discussed in the run up to the referendum.
It's not a no deal brexit, but leaving the single market and customs union, programs like Erasmus, and erecting non-tariff barriers to trade is a very hard brexit.

The ERG and hard brext brigade should be delighted with this deal. If they are not, it just shows how deeply unreasonable they are.

 Duskweaver wrote:

since I saw some correspondent or pundit mention this months ago and determined to look out for it

So, a combination of British journos/pundits using the same old tired stereotypes/propaganda about the EU that got us into this mess in the first place, plus plain old confirmation bias. Got it.

No. None of that.

 Da Boss wrote:
What? This is a REALLY hard brexit! Nothing like this was discussed in the run up to the referendum.
It's not a no deal brexit, but leaving the single market and customs union, programs like Erasmus, and erecting non-tariff barriers to trade is a very hard brexit.

The ERG and hard brext brigade should be delighted with this deal. If they are not, it just shows how deeply unreasonable they are.

This, it's basically the hardest possible Brexit without No Deal and the fact that it's not No Deal is about the best that can be said about it.

 Da Boss wrote:
It is a common trope about the EU, I think it was true during the Eurozone crisis particularly. But I think people don't watch them negotiate trade deals very much, because they are mostly pretty boring (CETA and TTIP were exceptions, because the investor courts were so contraversial).

Laughs in swiss.

You sire, need some outside perspecitve on the blob that is the EU

Not easy for me to get an outside perspective since I live in the EU and have done my whole life. I love the blob though, and I hope it gets even blobbier!

Yeah, no, except you want a yugoslavia Europe edition.

I want a federal Europe! Absolutely do.

 wuestenfux wrote:
No hard Brexit.
Let's see what this means for the UK industries.

Uuh...this was about hardest brexit possible short of no deal.

Trade has non-tarif barriers now which are real killers(tarif is more clickbaity since it's easier to understand). Whole service section wasn't even covered so uk service market(biggest market in uk btw) got nothing. Banks lost banking passport. No erasmus, lost full access to security databases, no military grade galileo system.

You can only call this non-hard brexit if you　have no idea what it contains and think only no deal is　hard brexit.

This was super thin deal. Which threw most profitable trade of uk under bus for fish. Gues good if you want uk to be nation of fisherman rather than bankers etc service sector.