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Just a quick point on returns assuming everyone is in rapid fire with no doctrines etc. firing at a 20 point intercessor:

Fire warrior: 4.44 points in damage done for a 49% return
Plague marine (assumed 24 points): 4.44 points in damage done for a 18.5% return
Intercessor: 6.67 points in damage done for a 33% return
Guardsman: 2.2 points in damage done for a 44.4% return

Same grounds against a 24 point plague marine:

Fire warrior: 2.67 points in damage done for a 29.6% return
Plague marine (assumed 24 points): 2.4 points in damage done for a 9.9% return
Intercessor: 3.56 points in damage done for a 17.8% return
Guardsman: 1.8 points in damage done for a 35.6% return

Some numbers smoothed out for rounding but gives you a better bench mark for not just firing at random stuff etc.

 Jidmah wrote:
Frankly, yes I think that plague marines should be one of the most durable troops, only to be outdone by things like custodes guardians, grey knight terminators and similar units. That's the whole point of plague marines. If you make them exactly a durable per point as marines are, they fail at that job by definition.
Yet, you have failed to actually provide a reason why this is a bad thing for a unit that is armed that moves 1" less than marines is armed with regular boltguns that have both no AP and 6" less range. And that's assuming that the doctrines and army tactics from the new codex even remotely compares in offensive power to what marines get.
The perceived superior offensive power solely stems from you comparing apples to oranges.

I agree that cross-faction comparisons are difficult due to the differing synergies with those units. I'm not convinced they are worthless though, because units which seem good in absolute terms compared with all other units usually make into lists which prove to be effective at winning games.

I'm comparing units shooting each other because I am trying to demonstrate if the additional defensive stats Plague Marines get *for their points* offsets the weaker shooting. Or if it doesn't. Because yes, obviously intercessors outshoot Plague Marines in isolation if the Plague Marine is 20+ points, due to having a better gun (and ultimately doctrines etc).
But if Plague Marines are significantly more likely to survive over the course of the game (due to T5 and a 5+++), this may not matter. The fact the Marine player would kill say a Guard player's army quicker than the DG player in isolation of how much damage the Guard Player could do to the Marine and DG player's armies seems a bit meaningless.

Resilience stats can be hard to value - because if you have a particular tough unit which low offensive output, you can often just kill it last knowing it won't do much over the course of the game (although 9th's objectives do help there). But at the same time, if Plague Marines were say 18 points, so they had the same shooting as Tactical Marines (pending doctrines etc) - but just took significantly less damage due to T5/5+++, then I think at least they would clearly be superior, even with -1M.

What I've been trying to demonstrate is that at 22 points, Plague Marines would be getting significantly more defensive stats for those points to their loss of offensive stats for those points in comparison to other infantry in the game. I think around 24/25 its probably close enough.

New art from the codex, courtesy of WHC instagram

I understand what you are trying to do, your method is just flawed. Whenever you compare two things, you must have to have common point of reference. This is an absolute truth for every comparison ever, and this is what your calculation is lacking.
If you compare two units by having them at shoot at different things, the outcome of such a comparison is always useless due to the methodical error.

 Marshal Loss wrote:
New art from the codex, courtesy of WHC instagram

Spoiler:

Well that's just lush. Thanks for sharing.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I've not been this excited for a 40K release in a long time.

 Marshal Loss wrote:
New art from the codex, courtesy of WHC instagram

Spoiler:

Though it's still a tad too much based on models for my taste, I like it. Lots of extra details that isn't stupid huge (like it is on physical models for different reasons) and a good colour palette that doesn't scream candy. More of this, yes please.

Also loving the close integration of plague marines and their supporting ships in the operation, whoever is being pounded by those is going to have a bad day.

 Marshal Loss wrote:
New art from the codex, courtesy of WHC instagram

Spoiler:

Love it.

 Jidmah wrote:
I understand what you are trying to do, your method is just flawed. Whenever you compare two things, you must have to have common point of reference. This is an absolute truth for every comparison ever, and this is what your calculation is lacking.
If you compare two units by having them at shoot at different things, the outcome of such a comparison is always useless due to the methodical error.

I don't see why, because you are comparing how the two units interact with each other. It can be misleading, because you interact with all units in the game, so it may be one unit is good versus X and bad versus Y, but that is why you'd look at that.

But okay, to sort of repeat Dudeface's numbers, which I think are slightly off.

Lets have an intercessor shoot a guardsman, an intercessor and a 22 point plague marine. Then lets have the plague marine shoot those targets.
Intercessor shooting.
Guardsman: 2*2/3*2/3*5/6*5= 3.7. Divided by 20=18.5% return.
Intercessor: 2*2/3*1/2*1/2*10= 3.3. Divided by 20=16.6% return.
Plague Marine: 2*2/3*1/3*1/2*2/3*11= 1.62. Divided by 20=8.1% return.

Plague Marine shooting.
Guardsman: 2*2/3*2/3*2/3*5= 2.96. Divided by 22=13.4% return.
Intercessor: 2*2/3*1/2*1/3*10= 2.22. Divided by 22=10.1% return
Plague Marine: 2*2/3*1/3*1/3*2/3*11= 1.09. Divided by 22=4.94% return.

Conclusion, the intercessor does more damage for its points against all targets. Which is not really a surprise due to that point of AP on the guns and 10% lower cost.

Now lets have both units can be shot by those units.

Intercessor being shot.
Guardsman: 2*1/2*1/3*1/3*10= 1.11. Divided by 5=22.2% return.
Intercessor: 2*2/3*1/2*1/2*10= 3.3. Divided by 20=16.6% return.
Plague Marine: 2*2/3*1/2*1/3*10= 2.2. Divided by 22=10.1% return.

Plague Marine being shot.
Guardsman: 2*1/2*1/3*1/3*2/3*11=0.814. Divided by 5=16.3% return.
Intercessor: 2*2/3*1/3*1/2*2/3*11=1.63. Divided by 20=8.1% return.
Plague Marine: 2*2/3*1/3*1/3*2/3*11= 1.086. Divided by 22=4.94% return.

Again, not a huge surprise, the Plague Marine is considerably more resilient than the intercessor and gives up a lower number of points.

In conclusion, the intercessor does about 60% more damage when shooting Intercessors or 22 point Plague Marines than a 22 point plague marine. But in turn, he takes about 100% more damage from intercessors or 22 point plague marines. So the Plague Marine is getting more in toughness than it's giving up in damage output.
Perhaps interestingly with Guardsmen it is more balanced, with the intercessor doing 38% more damage, but expecting to take 36% more damage back. Which is indicative that the Plague Marines's T5 only helps with S4/S5/S8 guns - but those are exactly the guns you'd usually aim at MEQ. (I'd do the above but with Plasma Inceptors - but I don't think there is a simple mathematical way of showing the impact of a 5+++ on 2 damage weapons, due to creating 1 wound models that then eat 2 wound shots. I think it would be a big win for 22 point Plague Marines though.)

I'm not really sure what this analysis tells you which the other didn't. At 22 points, when compared to Intercessors, Plague Marines would get more toughness for their points than they would be giving up in damage output.

So okay, if you are expecting to put the unit down and it will never be shot, the intercessor would be the superior choice - whether shooting guardsmen, marines, rhinos, whatever. But the whole point is trying to put a value on the additional toughness Plague Marines get, so I don't see what that thought experiment shows.

Tyel wrote:
I don't see why, because you are comparing how the two units interact with each other. It can be misleading, because you interact with all units in the game, so it may be one unit is good versus X and bad versus Y, but that is why you'd look at that.

A single point of reference is important if you want to compare two things. Let's try this:

Your original attempt was like this

It's not really possible to tell which one has more "damage".

Now you have done this

This way damage can be easily compared.

Cheers!

Which is indicative that the Plague Marines's T5 only helps with S4/S5/S8 guns - but those are exactly the guns you'd usually aim at MEQ.

Plague marines aren't MEQ though, T5/3+/5++ is a statline that is exceptionally resilient to small arms fire, while T4/3+ is not. Assuming that Plague Marines are just marines is common reason why people have lost against my DG, by the way. You don't expect a bolter to do well against bikes, so why would you expect them to do well against plague marines?

(I'd do the above but with Plasma Inceptors - but I don't think there is a simple mathematical way of showing the impact of a 5+++ on 2 damage weapons, due to creating 1 wound models that then eat 2 wound shots. I think it would be a big win for 22 point Plague Marines though.)

It's not a problem that can be solved with just averages, but I guess you could just do one shot of plasma and then calculate the chances of 0, 1 or 2 damage. Or you can just content with the approximation that a plague marine is a 3 wound model which dies do a 2 wound weapon 44.4% of the time.

I'm not really sure what this analysis tells you which the other didn't. At 22 points, when compared to Intercessors, Plague Marines would get more toughness for their points than they would be giving up in damage output.

So okay, if you are expecting to put the unit down and it will never be shot, the intercessor would be the superior choice - whether shooting guardsmen, marines, rhinos, whatever. But the whole point is trying to put a value on the additional toughness Plague Marines get, so I don't see what that thought experiment shows.

The difference is that this analysis actually has numbers you can compare to each other, while the other number implied that a plague marine was superior to a plague marine or fire warrior in every way.

But in general, we both agree that 22 points is probably a tad bit too low for plague marines.

You can math the effects of a 2 damage weapon on a plague marine.

You simply count the plague marine as a 1 wound model and the plasma weapon as a damage 1 weapon, then give the plague marine a FNP which works 40% of time.

40% is the chance that a plague marine can survive a plasma shot while also considering that the same plague marine has a chance of having already survived a plasma shot, which could have left him on one wound.

Works well if you math many plasma shots together. Doesn't work really well for few plasma shots, since it assumes that even the first hit could potentially hit an already wounded PM.

"Free" model and coin for the month of December is DG. I thought I already saw this model released, though?? Anyway:

https://www.warhammer-community.com/2020/12/01/new-in-stores-the-latest-miniature-of-the-month/

The models aren't intended to be special ones. They're literally just giving you a free model from the box sets.

 puma713 wrote:
"Free" model and coin for the month of December is DG. I thought I already saw this model released, though?? Anyway:

Spoiler:

https://www.warhammer-community.com/2020/12/01/new-in-stores-the-latest-miniature-of-the-month/

They're not aiming to give away new models, usually just 1 out of a squad box.

Yep, it's definitely deathcember.

Yeah it's from the existing Plague Marine box.
The free models last time were also existing models..

Unfortunately for me NI is in lockdown again so no GW stores open until at least 11th and maybe not even then.

Very much a lottery of getting normal or special weapons with this giveaway.

That is some nice looking artwork, looking forward to the rest.
Tyel you keep mentioning that due to staying around longer, PM would effectively out-damage intercessors over the course of a game if I understand you correctly. I think that is a fair point but also consider that the best defense in this game continues to be killing the other guy which is what the intercessors do better. So were PM scale offensively by not dying, intercessors increase their survive ability simply because they remove more threats.

 Castozor wrote:
That is some nice looking artwork, looking forward to the rest.
Tyel you keep mentioning that due to staying around longer, PM would effectively out-damage intercessors over the course of a game if I understand you correctly. I think that is a fair point but also consider that the best defense in this game continues to be killing the other guy which is what the intercessors do better. So were PM scale offensively by not dying, intercessors increase their survive ability simply because they remove more threats.

This needs to change and wanting plague marines to have more damage output isn't the answer, at best it just continues a pointless arms race and at worst results in infantry that are horrendously over optimised and/or woefully expensive.

oh I´m sorry if i came across as wanting more damage output on my PM. I agree 22 points would be too low with the extra attack, 23-24 is far more reasonable. My argument is that you can´t just say PM outperform Intercessors eventually because they refuse to die, when the intercessors themselves also get "hidden" durability from killing enemies faster than PM's ever will. Because the former is what I interpreted Tyel's argument and your argument to be.

 Castozor wrote:
oh I´m sorry if i came across as wanting more damage output on my PM. I agree 22 points would be too low with the extra attack, 23-24 is far more reasonable. My argument is that you can´t just say PM outperform Intercessors eventually because they refuse to die, when the intercessors themselves also get "hidden" durability from killing enemies faster than PM's ever will. Because the former is what I interpreted Tyel's argument and your argument to be.

Gotcha, on the same page now

Well Plague Marines have always been pretty bad in terms of damage output at range. The saving grace they've always had was proliferation of Special Weapons.

Thats why I'm glad for the second attack: it makes them be more aggressive and the Axe not a point sink, but a natural rerolling 1 to wound with the Plague Knife is just fine.

 Castozor wrote:
oh I´m sorry if i came across as wanting more damage output on my PM. I agree 22 points would be too low with the extra attack, 23-24 is far more reasonable. My argument is that you can´t just say PM outperform Intercessors eventually because they refuse to die, when the intercessors themselves also get "hidden" durability from killing enemies faster than PM's ever will. Because the former is what I interpreted Tyel's argument and your argument to be.

I'm sort of tempted to leave it because I don't think we are really disagreeing - but here we go.

My point was that since Plague Marines take less damage from things shooting them, its acceptable (in fact required) that they in turn do less damage when they shoot back - *for a given number of points*.

So yes, arguably Intercessors (or anything really) do have a "hidden" durability from killing things faster than say Plague Marines. But I'd consider any potential balance issue to be between those two units (the intercessors and whatever you are killing), rather than the Plague Marines who are not on the table. My whole point was that Intercessors don't kill Plague Marines faster than the Plague Marines kill Intercessors. (Or at least not at 22 points, at 24~ its closer.)

To go another way, imagine a very simple system. It would theoretically be balanced if Fire Warriors get a 30% return shooting Intercessors, and a 15% turn shooting Plague Marines, and Intercessors get a 30% return shooting Fire Warriors and a 15% return shooting Plague Marines and Plague Marines get a 15% return shooting Fire Warriors and a 15% return shooting Intercessors. (Its more complicated than this due to synergies and movement and assault etc - but hopefully the point is clear). Everyone's getting roughly the same expected outcome for their points.

You might say its boring - precisely because every unit is effectively doing about the same damage output *for its points* to each unit - but it still alters gameplay, since it means you'd expect the Tau/Marine game to be over quickly as everything dies fast, while any of the games with Death Guard are more slow grinding affairs with much more being left on the table because the effective damage output of both sides is much lower. As said, its a very simple system, in practice you'd want to spice things up with vehicles and anti-vehicle weapons etc. You'd want some rock/paper/scissors.

You might say Plague Marines *should* beat other infantry in a slanging match - because they are meant to be amongst the toughest things in the galaxy. But it obviously raises issues. You can say they are a bit slow - but is that enough of a downside? Its likely only a few inches over a game. You could try and meta it - so infantry lose to Plague Marines, but some particular unit type is good against them - but in practice, anything that's good against Plague Marines at 22 points, is going to be exceptionally good at killing Marines at a similar points cost who are only T4 and no FNP.

Obviously this can equally go the other way. I think Death Guard were quite bad for much of 8th (and you can argue have been dropping off pre-Codex now), due to GW significantly overvaluing their defensive stats. So you ended up with models that weren't actually that tough *for their points* - but had very low damage output. So were just bad.
I just think 22 points for 2 T5 3+/5+++ wounds is too far the other way and sought to show why with numbers.

They're probably not keeping the 5+++. They'll likely be be downgraded to 6+++, which makes them more comparable to Iron Hands Intercessors. Keep in mind though that, since we don't know what exactly the army bonus is yet, the Plague Marine could be strictly better via proliferation of rules. The Iron Hands Intercessor only gains a 6+++ (and obviously they don't get the bonus regarding the Vehicle Damage Chart LOL), but the Plague Marine WILL get something else.

A slightly better Bolter will likely not make up for whatever the bonus is. I'm going to guarantee that. I already find Immortals a lot better than Intercessors currently, and I am expecting Plague Marines now to be strictly better.

I see Tyel, you are right it seems we do not disagree at all. Seems my reading comprehension was off again.
As for the 5+ DR, I think it will stay if only because I see no reason for GW to remove it. IH kept theirs and for 1 wound models Necrons arguably gained something even better than 5+ FNP. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but I see no justification for the constant scaremongering in some DG communities about how we will lose DR or it is getting nerfed. I'm not directing this at you mind Slayer, but I've seen this idea come up again and again the last few months and I just don't understand were it comes from.

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
They're probably not keeping the 5+++. They'll likely be be downgraded to 6+++, which makes them more comparable to Iron Hands Intercessors. Keep in mind though that, since we don't know what exactly the army bonus is yet, the Plague Marine could be strictly better via proliferation of rules. The Iron Hands Intercessor only gains a 6+++ (and obviously they don't get the bonus regarding the Vehicle Damage Chart LOL), but the Plague Marine WILL get something else.

A slightly better Bolter will likely not make up for whatever the bonus is. I'm going to guarantee that. I already find Immortals a lot better than Intercessors currently, and I am expecting Plague Marines now to be strictly better.

I'm sure you have a source for that, right?

Why does that DG model's face look like Mater from Cars?

 Jidmah wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
They're probably not keeping the 5+++. They'll likely be be downgraded to 6+++, which makes them more comparable to Iron Hands Intercessors. Keep in mind though that, since we don't know what exactly the army bonus is yet, the Plague Marine could be strictly better via proliferation of rules. The Iron Hands Intercessor only gains a 6+++ (and obviously they don't get the bonus regarding the Vehicle Damage Chart LOL), but the Plague Marine WILL get something else.

A slightly better Bolter will likely not make up for whatever the bonus is. I'm going to guarantee that. I already find Immortals a lot better than Intercessors currently, and I am expecting Plague Marines now to be strictly better.

I'm sure you have a source for that, right?

My source: do you think even GW thinks they can properly cost a T5 W2 3+ 5+++ model?

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

 Jidmah wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
They're probably not keeping the 5+++. They'll likely be be downgraded to 6+++, which makes them more comparable to Iron Hands Intercessors. Keep in mind though that, since we don't know what exactly the army bonus is yet, the Plague Marine could be strictly better via proliferation of rules. The Iron Hands Intercessor only gains a 6+++ (and obviously they don't get the bonus regarding the Vehicle Damage Chart LOL), but the Plague Marine WILL get something else.

A slightly better Bolter will likely not make up for whatever the bonus is. I'm going to guarantee that. I already find Immortals a lot better than Intercessors currently, and I am expecting Plague Marines now to be strictly better.

I'm sure you have a source for that, right?

My source: do you think even GW thinks they can properly cost a T5 W2 3+ 5+++ model?

Yes, they do and it won't stop them trying. Its not like they didnt try and price a t5 w2 2+/5++/5+++ terminator

Mortarion leaks:


+1T
+1A
Silence now does D3+3 damage instead of D6
Lantern is 12" instead of 18"

Did Lantern gave random damage before or has it always been D3?

It has always been 3 damage flat, but used hit all units between Mortarion and his target. At 12" that ability wouldn't make much sense.