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They're really not that much of a mess.
And they absolutely know exactly far more than 2 weeks in advance. If anything their release is behind the logistics, meaning it's a purely self-imposed delay.
They mentioned like two weeks ago boxes of Killteam were already in Australian warehouses. How long before that did they arrive, we don't know.

So no, GW is absolutely no doing the best they can.
They're doing the best for their sales, nothing more, nothing less.

You may well know better than me. I am stuck with second hand info from friends who are GW managers and one that consults for companies in that area. As I understand it the expansion in factory and warehousing space on site and in the new second site has not gone smoothly, weekly or predictable deliveries aren't able to be programmed and instead its as and when (including on days when one man shops are meant to be closed) and trade accounts have no certainty on orders being fulfilled, amounts being randomly adjusted (down) and many staples being regularly out of stock.

They've always known months in advance when things would release. We know this because white dwarf is finalized months in advance, and until the most recent incarnation, a big part of each white dwarf was showing all the new releases for that month.

The truth is the business model has changed so now they need to sell you the hot new thing every week. They don't want you to know about the thing you really want coming out in a couple of months, because then you might just buy that instead of buying the thing they are releasing now, then also buying the thing you really wanted later.

All the demand for their stuff seems to be front-loaded. How much Idoneth Deepkin stuff do you think they are selling now, for example?

Absolutely, GW is front loading their sales HARD to the point that they're forgoing later sales completely in a lot of cases.

 kirotheavenger wrote:
So no, GW is absolutely no doing the best they can.
They're doing the best for their sales, nothing more, nothing less.

It also means that they put out Pariah Nexus and those less-content/higher price Killzone boxes knowing full well they were about to completely invalidate them very quickly with this new KT release.

Think about that for a bit.

Let me see if I got this straight.

Old Model.

1. GW releases stock for online purchase at preset time.
2. Gamers start buying however scalpers with pre-programmed bots buy stock faster than they can.
3. Scalpers sell stock at inflated prices and only a relative handful of gamers get items near release at marked price.
4. GW slowly sells produced stock over time.

GW's takeaway - a massive spike in early sales and a trickle of sales after.
Gamers takeaway - generally not good.


New Model

1. GW pre-releases stock for online purchase on a buy first get first basis.
2. Gamers start buying however scalpers with pre-programmed bots buy stock faster than they can.
3. Scalpers sell stock at inflated prices and only a relative handful of gamers get items near release at marked price.
4. GW slowly ships pre-sold stock over time.

GW's takeaway - a massive spike in early sales and not a lot else, but they get all monies up front.
Gamers takeaway - same as above.

Am I missing anything here?

Except the intensive for scalpers isn't there.

If the newer releases aren't limited like the previous one were, then the level of supply vs demand isn't the same. The only thing they've got to bank on is time, and how much patience people have.

So they sell to people who are impatient, rather than people who were unable to purchase one.

Yeah at least I then have the option of inflated scalper price (but likely much less of a premium), vs get it later on down the road. Which works pretty okay for me, as I'm not a gamer. It's at least some improvement, and the FOMO reduction alone will lower my bloodpressure.

The_Real_Chris wrote:
You may well know better than me. I am stuck with second hand info from friends who are GW managers and one that consults for companies in that area. As I understand it the expansion in factory and warehousing space on site and in the new second site has not gone smoothly, weekly or predictable deliveries aren't able to be programmed and instead its as and when (including on days when one man shops are meant to be closed) and trade accounts have no certainty on orders being fulfilled, amounts being randomly adjusted (down) and many staples being regularly out of stock.

Ignoring any software issues, the new warehouse and factory weren't designed with covid in mind either. So even with their ample expansion GW has had issues with not having enough staff working at the same time in the same space. I would wager packing and warehousing is the big issue and that machine output isn't as big an issue. However you can't have your machines just piling up material for packing.
I am also aware that one of their existing factories had power supply problems and I don't know if the local grid can give GW all the power it needs.


At the very least once GW can work without coivd safe work practice we might see them stabilize. Though their new factory might just let them tred water rather than soar above their demand for a while. A lot hinges on how much of the covid lockdown sales surge remains.

By doing this preorder system they can know better how much to short the stores. Set more aside for online sales and cut mom and pop out of the picture. Selling more at full retail than at the discount they sell to mom and pop= more money straight into GW pockets.

Made to orders in the past have run through 3rd parties - I believe Indomitus did. GW might have to rework some things to do custom orders or such but it could be fully possible.

 Overread wrote:

I am also aware that one of their existing factories had power supply problems and I don't know if the local grid can give GW all the power it needs.

I had heard the power supply was an especially sore point (though I was amused at the announcement of solar power on site being spun for green reasons, not just to get more power!) with management as it was apparently linked to plot size and the street level infrastructure. So the new set up just down the road gets to have power as its another site, even though its from the same source and network!

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
They've always known months in advance when things would release. We know this because white dwarf is finalized months in advance, and until the most recent incarnation, a big part of each white dwarf was showing all the new releases for that month.

The truth is the business model has changed so now they need to sell you the hot new thing every week. They don't want you to know about the thing you really want coming out in a couple of months, because then you might just buy that instead of buying the thing they are releasing now, then also buying the thing you really wanted later.

All the demand for their stuff seems to be front-loaded. How much Idoneth Deepkin stuff do you think they are selling now, for example?

White Dwarf is not finalized months in advance, its finalized weeks in advance. This has been discussed and explained numerous times for various reasons, but the most obvious is thanks to one of James Hewitts interviews where he discussed how the original Adeptus Titanicus reveal in White Dwarf was pulled just a few weeks before it went onto shelves. Having firsthand knowledge of how GTM gets published (not sure if thats something you'd be familiar with in the UK, but its basically an industry periodical for all the other tabletop publishers out there that aren't big enough to have their own magazines, though more oriented towards retailers than consumers in terms of soliciting new releases, etc), you're really only looking at ~6-8 week lead times - which is probably longer than what White Dwarf has to deal with, because GTM has to compile articles from hundreds of different sources vs White Dwarf being an in-house organ.

As for the months long wait, production takes time, I think you guys have an unrealistic concept/understanding of how these things work, its not as easy as "put those molds out on the assembly line and bang out a few dozen boxes in a week". Things like the boxes, rulebooks, cardboard components, etc. need to be outsourced, a lot of it comes from China - even if it didn't they are working to someone elses schedule and most of these places (in China, the UK, US, etc.) have months long leadtimes due to backlogging work. Its not like GW can call up "print-r-us" and have a production run of 10,000 copies of a rulebook scheduled to print next day.

axotl wrote:
Very glad to see this. Though, I wish they could just announce things more than 2 weeks in advance EVER. I'm guessing it's too hard to do that accurately. Still shocked they don't go the way of the Gamestop preorder, months and months in advance.

They announced this product over a month ago, they announce lots of things in advance of a one to two week window. Is that not enough? What do you gain by having a multi-month long pre-order window to sit and wait for them to deliver something to you? As I'm guessing I'm the only one amongst this group who actually has first hand knowledge of manufacturing, supply chains, and the tabletop gaming industry, let me just say that this is another area that you guys seem to have an unrealistic concept/understanding of how it works. Very little of this stuff gets warehoused for anything other than the bare minimum amount of time needed to sort/ship out products from distribution hubs, etc. All of this is done basically as a revolving door - it gets manufactured, assembled, palletized, containerized, loaded onto a ship, shipped, unloaded, de-containerized/de-palletized, packed for distribution, and shipped to your stores/doors, in-and-out as quickly as possible - it costs money to sit on product and no business in the industry wants to incur that cost. Until a product is actually at a distribution center or warehouse, you generally have no idea to forecast a release date on it, even without COVID and a global shipping crisis/container shortage. There are high-likelihood potential delays at every step of the way, whether it be delays loading/unloading a vessel, freight being lost at sea (happens more often than you realize), delays getting something unloaded, customs clearing delays, trucking/rail delays, etc. No major player in the industry really announces dates for release anything more than a few weeks in advance (and often 2-3 weeks seems to be the safe limit, anything more than that and you're going to miss your release schedule more often than you miss it). The closest thing you'll get to a longer term forecast is stuff from companies like Asmodee who will give you a release quarter months in advance - more often than not (even in the best of times) they miss those forecasts by months - admittedly recently they've started forecasting release dates about a month in advance instead, but its extremely hit or miss on a lot of products in terms of whether or not they make those timelines (more often than not the releases are delayed in some regions and not others).

So yes, GW is absolutely doing the best they can.

 Theophony wrote:
By doing this preorder system they can know better how much to short the stores. Set more aside for online sales and cut mom and pop out of the picture. Selling more at full retail than at the discount they sell to mom and pop= more money straight into GW pockets.

And this is just laughable tinfoil hat theory. This isn't how distribution works. When you're talking tens or even hundreds of thousands of boxes of product, they would need more than two weeks to move inventory allocations around. This stuff is all happening at different warehouses and shipping hubs. Its not like they have a stack of boxes that they pull copies from for all of their sales channels. GW is already taking preorders for the T products from retailers, right now. AGW is already boxing up orders for those retailers, as well as its own official stores, right now. lot of those retailerorders will balready e on trucks by the time the online preorders go live this saturday,. A lot of retail stores will be sitting on boxes of inventory for 10+ days prior to street date because of how early GW begins shipping these major releases. This wouldn't be possible if GW was waiting to see how many copies it could sell online first, at least not without a time machine, because many of these shipments need to be on trucks well before online sales go live in order for that to happen.

 Orlanth wrote:
Let me see if I got this straight.


New Model

1. GW pre-releases stock for online purchase on a buy first get first basis.
2. Gamers start buying however scalpers with pre-programmed bots buy stock faster than they can.
3. Scalpers sell stock at inflated prices and only a relative handful of gamers get items near release at marked price.
4. GW slowly ships pre-sold stock over time.

GW's takeaway - a massive spike in early sales and not a lot else, but they get all monies up front.
Gamers takeaway - same as above.

Am I missing anything here?

yes, step 3 is incorrect, or rather not fully correct, as the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up. thus, the only people who actually pay scalper prices are those who, for whatever reason, are desperate for the product right now and willing to pay almost any price for that, which is a much, much smaller market. Everyone else, who just wants the product, doesn't have to pay the scalper price.

The FOMO/ "pay my price or don't get it at all" element that drives people to the scalper is gone, they can get it cheaper than him, so why pay his stupid markup, especially when thier is zero grantee he can get you it faster than GW direct.

the scalpers know this as well (they have access to the same made to order announcements as we do, after all), which means they wont buy as much product because they anticipate a much smaller scalper market, which will also improve availability for normal customers.

and, given the aforementioned lead times on shipping, its fairly likely that the stock being sent for physical retail is already en route or in location, so most stores that were planning on stocking this should be getting supplies. I cant guarantee they didn't plan this months in advance and short-stock the physical retailers in anticipation of primarily online sales, but i dont think they'd do that too much, at least for this specific release, as it'd make more sense to leave store stocks at near normal levels as a control to then adjust store stock levels for future releases of this type based on data form the KT21 release.

"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

its a starter set, when would it not be relevant? why would it stop being relevant because it takes a few weeks to get to you? its not like the models inside have a shelf life that expires.

Scalpers only work if:

- the original product is not available any more

- parts of the original products are not available stand-alone

as long as everything from a box is available on its own as well as the discounted box, scalping does not work

with the original box gone and the stand alone prices being much higher, scalpers make money and the community is happe
(in this case, everyone who wants the Krieg models might still buy from a scalper as it is cheaper than getting the Box and might be cheaper than the GW release for those models)

xerxeskingofking wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

its a starter set, when would it not be relevant? why would it stop being relevant because it takes a few weeks to get to you? its not like the models inside have a shelf life that expires.

They said months, not weeks. Will you order this now if you won't get it for several months? I doubt many people will.

Yes.

I've ordered several of the character models and print on demand books GW has done. Each one having several months of wait which I was happy to wait for until they arrived.


I won't be ordering Killteam because I don't want to own it. But for future products this is a great policy for me to not have to worry. If 3rd party stores get in on it too you can bet if there's a product like Cursed City - ergo one that sells really well - then they will likely order more "made to order" as well for supply in a few months time.

Gonna be fun.

Here in México, one independent retailer still has around ten Beast Snagga boxes, despite Orks not being a popular army for an already unpopular hobby...

Still sucks that the entire Americas (see everything south to 'Muhrica) has to wait from midnight to 6 a.m. to pre-order, instead of just wake up and order alongside USA and Cánada.

On other news, as a CF enthusiast, I'm glad for the BT brothers, and as someone who badly wants to start a NL army, I'm bloody jelly.

 Albino Squirrel wrote:

xerxeskingofking wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

its a starter set, when would it not be relevant? why would it stop being relevant because it takes a few weeks to get to you? its not like the models inside have a shelf life that expires.

They said months, not weeks. Will you order this now if you won't get it for several months? I doubt many people will.

What does it matter if it spends months in my pile of shame versus months in a virtual pile of shame?

My sense is that the meta-chasers who need the models *RIGHT NOW* are much fewer than number than inveterate hoarders who see discount boxes as a permission structure to buy into new armies, expand existing forces, etc.

 kodos wrote:
Scalpers only work if:

- the original product is not available any more

- parts of the original products are not available stand-alone

as long as everything from a box is available on its own as well as the discounted box, scalping does not work

with the original box gone and the stand alone prices being much higher, scalpers make money and the community is happe
(in this case, everyone who wants the Krieg models might still buy from a scalper as it is cheaper than getting the Box and might be cheaper than the GW release for those models)

Your first point is not quite right.

Scalpers work if:

- The original product is not available anymore or there is suitable uncertainty as to when you will be able to acquire the product in the future.

Again, refer to the PS5, graphic card situation. Also refer to scalpers buying up toilet roll and sanitisation products last year. Nobody was worried that they wouldn't ever be able to buy toilet roll or hand sanitiser ever again, they were worried they couldn't get it right now when they wanted/needed it.

Sure, people could just wait it out. But tabletop gamers aren't stereotyped as having great impulse control, even by ourselves. We don't refer to our hobby as plastic crack for nothing, there is a grain of truth in there. It is also what GW's marketing and release strategy relies/preys on.

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

Then that's on them. If people are so impatient that they can't wait then they deserve to lose that money.

I believe some of the bigger toilet and sanitizing product hoarders got taken to court and products redistributed.

And yep it all depends; a model can sit in a build pile for years and never be built and lot lose value; toilet roll you kinda need it when you need it all the time so if you run out its an immediate need.

 flaherty wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:

xerxeskingofking wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

its a starter set, when would it not be relevant? why would it stop being relevant because it takes a few weeks to get to you? its not like the models inside have a shelf life that expires.

They said months, not weeks. Will you order this now if you won't get it for several months? I doubt many people will.

What does it matter if it spends months in my pile of shame versus months in a virtual pile of shame?

My sense is that the meta-chasers who need the models *RIGHT NOW* are much fewer than number than inveterate hoarders who see discount boxes as a permission structure to buy into new armies, expand existing forces, etc.

And yet I bet you still buy things the week they are released, and they do actually sit on your pile of shame for months. If the people who buy things "RIGHT NOW" were really as rare as you think they are, these things wouldn't sell out in a few minutes. Those hoarders with the big piles of shame still impulse buy the stuff when it comes out instead of waiting until they actually need it. Obviously. That's why they have the big piles of shame. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

 Albino Squirrel wrote:

 flaherty wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:

xerxeskingofking wrote:

 Albino Squirrel wrote:
"the scalpers who do buy the set find that a significant segment of their resale market as already got the product at marked price, in a needs merely to wait for shipping to catch up"

I don't see many people buying this knowing they have to wait months to get it. So if someone wants it while it's still relevant, they're still going to have to buy from the scalpers. And there's no less incentive for the scalpers to buy up as much as they can. It'll still sell.

its a starter set, when would it not be relevant? why would it stop being relevant because it takes a few weeks to get to you? its not like the models inside have a shelf life that expires.

They said months, not weeks. Will you order this now if you won't get it for several months? I doubt many people will.

What does it matter if it spends months in my pile of shame versus months in a virtual pile of shame?

My sense is that the meta-chasers who need the models *RIGHT NOW* are much fewer than number than inveterate hoarders who see discount boxes as a permission structure to buy into new armies, expand existing forces, etc.

And yet I bet you still buy things the week they are released, and they do actually sit on your pile of shame for months. If the people who buy things "RIGHT NOW" were really as rare as you think they are, these things wouldn't sell out in a few minutes. Those hoarders with the big piles of shame still impulse buy the stuff when it comes out instead of waiting until they actually need it. Obviously. That's why they have the big piles of shame. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

They buy discount stuff from GW because they know GW prices will only go up from there. So in the long run its cheaper for them. GW products don't devalue over time and most go up. That said it makes little difference if its sitting in their collection or if its sitting in a to-be-made list. They've got their product and discount. Waiting for it isn't a huge issue. The "need to buy it" is satisfied. The market that's smaller are the "need to buy and build/play/use it now" group. Who don't just want it for the discount, but becauase they want those models/game right now on release day

The assumption people will just "wait it out" is hilarious, given how every box with limited models in it in the vein of Piety and Pain sells out in seconds, even if everyone knows all the "unique" models in it are going to be avalible separately in a few months.

 flaherty wrote:

What does it matter if it spends months in my pile of shame versus months in a virtual pile of shame?

Haha, this tickled me and perfectly describes my experience during lockdown. I've frequently had to wait many months for stuff I've order to turn up due to supply issues and it has never mattered - whatever the logistics issues affecting GW products they remain less than my own logistics issues in terms of the speed I can assemble and paint things. I just split the order into two parts and cracked on with painting the stuff that was in stock whilst I waited for the rest to turn up. With the lack of gaming opportunities during lockdown it wasn't like I had an immediate need for anything. From that perspective having to maybe wait a few months for a kill team box to turn up doesn't really matter to me as long as I have the guarantee that I've secured one.

Well, you're probably right about that, Overread. In a lot of cases, it is just the buying of the stuff that gives the high, even if you won't get it for months. That's why Kickstarters can do so well, when you don't get anything for years usually.

However, given that this also comes with the game rules, it's not exactly the same. If someone is buying this because they actually want the game (as opposed to just wanting the models and terrain), they won't want to wait months to be able to play the game.

Now, what percentage of GW customers actually play the games vs just collecting and painting the models? I don't know.

If I had to put my scalper hat on (and I have no idea what their overhead, margins, or expected return on investment is), I can still see there being an incentive for scalpers to buy, purely to part out and sell individual models / sprues / terrain / books / etc on the secondary market. Even if they sold everything at slightly less than the MSRP for the individual components, they could still turn something of a profit (seeing that these boxes provide something around 50% discount in value). And that's assuming they don't sell for more than MSRP in the weeks leading up to the individual releases. Someone who is only interested in the DKoK models might not buy the full set for $200, but just the DKoK models for $80-100? Could be worth the price to not wait for a standalone release (which could very well be longer than waiting for the MTO sets to arrive.

So in short, they could part out the unavailable contents (models and terrain) for much higher than MSRP, available contents (books) for less than MSRP, and then whatever doesn't sell by the time the models and terrain are released standalone, the price goes down to below MSRP (assuming there is enough stock at retailers to not justify keeping the price high). Either way, seems like they make money, just depends on if it's a lot or a little, which limits the risk of not selling everything at scalper prices. Someone who actually does this for a living and knows the numbers could make a completely rational business decision to still invest in buying boxes with the intent to part out and scalp.

So my fear is that, if this is in fact true, GW will reduce the discount value of their boxed sets to prevent competition with the standalone releases as the second hand market is flooded with sets that have been parted out. I still remember just how much cheaper parts of the Indomitus set were going for when compared to the MSRP of the standalone unit releases (Necron Warriors anyone?).