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chaos0xomega wrote:

 kirotheavenger wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Saw some people saying there were rumors of TOW sales cratering late last year or earlier this year and that demand didnt sustain itself past the initial wave of nostalgia releases.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me. I've not really seen anyone playing it beyond dusting off their existing collection (and maybe expanding it a little).
It certainly didn't help the game that the initial release state was quite poor, and by the time they materially improved the situation well the launch hype was gone and the reputation was there.

I honestly have no idea what it is you're trying to say here. I think the initial release state was pretty good, the launch hype was solid, and the game had a positive reception and reputation?

 streetsamurai wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Saw some people saying there were rumors of TOW sales cratering late last year or earlier this year and that demand didnt sustain itself past the initial wave of nostalgia releases.

AFAIK, the vast majority of the sales of a kit are in the few weeks following release. So a big dip in sales would be expected. I think that the best indicator of the long term viability of the game are the sales of the grand cathay kits. Again, AFAIK, they sold extremely well, and at the very least, we know that a lot of these kits/boxes were sold out for a long time

Thats hyperbolic. Yes, demand for a new kit will always be heaviest at launch, but the idea that post-launch sales are miniscule or insignificant isnt quite accurate. If that were true, then space marines would not be consistent best sellers (not every release is a space marine release, after all), likewise new players would constantly be entering the game without ever buying 80-90% of a given factions catalog, etc. Which just isn't a realistic stance to take.

A successful miniatures product line will continue to have a sustained baseline level of demand and sales volume and demand for months or years after release, driven by newcomers to the game system or ongoing sales to existing customers. If sales are cratering (again, this is rumor, grain of salt and all that), that implies that sales volume/demand is approaching zero or dropping below an expected sales baseline, in turn implying a lack of growth or continuing sales to established customers.

I dont think space marines are a good comparaison for any other range....

Anyway, i dont know how anybody would think TOW would be a hot seller with the (minisculous) amount of effort they gave to the game. How many people are down to put money down for these horribles tk skelletons and chariots??? If the game will ever lift, it will need a lot more support than it got

In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.
Also at the same time the completely new army could be sumarised as baloon warfare which, yeah. Also no hung and Mung whilest implementing cathay is still like ?!?

The only ever numbers and statement on that "we" got was during the chapterhouse case

there GW showed that any other kit had low to 0 sales outside their new codex release window except the Space Marine tactical squad box, because that one sold with any Space Marine or Chaos Space Marine book release (to the surprise of no one, but this is also where the idea came from that the TT kit outsold every other line from GW, despite we never got any numbers on total sales for the different IPs)

that being a long time ago it explains the current release and sales strategy of GW, as models sell best if there is a book released as well and all from a faction is best released together etc.

this is why Cathay got 2 books (or AdMech in the past), because there were too many sets for a single release, and a 2nd release without a book won't sell as well

That is why Necromunda got that many books instead of just releasing the new models or why Blood Bowl has seasons and why 40k is so focused on Marines because vanilla sets sell with every other flavour

Which basically means that anything for TOW without a major release won't sell as well as those that have one
But also that GW doesn't expect those to sell, which also might be why we got reports that the sales surprised GW as on release "everything" sold, saw a spike again with the Journal and now it is back to what is expected

In other words, it has been doing reasonably OK despite GW's best efforts.

Actually whilst I think new models sell well alongside a book I don't think its required that new models sell alongside a book for good sales.

We have to consider a few things

1) Back then GW generally didn't do many releases outside of when a book got released for an army. So armies which went a long time between codex/battletomes not only had to run with out of date rules; but also had an aging model line. Sisters of Battle are a perfect example of this.

2) As a result of Chapterhouse and also the increase in 3D printing, the 3rd party market today is capable of bringing a model to the market before GW can. As soon as GW previews something; makers can start making.
As a result GW doesn't want to release 1 book with half an army of unreleased models inside because the 3rd party market will swoop in.

3) GW today releases a good chunk of models that don't come in a battletome/codex. Heroes are released all the time for AoS armies; Killteam and (when it had updates) Warcry also add models to armies without coming alongside a main army book.


I think its more true to say that models get a bump in sales during their release window; but that that release window doesn't have to coincide with a new book. Of course pair the two up and the potential is greater; but functionally if you're adding a lot of models you typically need to be adding a book of some kind for the new elements being introduced.

Also lets not forget its been a large number of years since Chapterhouse. GW as a firm; the market and so forth might well have shifted in patterns since then.

 Overread wrote:
Actually whilst I think new models sell well alongside a book I don't think its required that new models sell alongside a book for good sales.

may not be required, but at the moment, the sales strategy from GW is what it is, new models only alongside new books and no real "support" outside the release weeks.

and yes, 3D artists trying to get their "almost" copies out the same weekend as GW releases their models (sculpting them off the pre-order previews) just confirms that to a point

Also Killteam is an example for this, models outside the book release not worth doing in the main game, so a side game is used to get them done and sold.
Might be that enough 40k players buy them as well but the "release" isn't new models for 40k without book support but a new Kill Team box

no one saying that it doesn't work any other way, just that GW settled with it and it works very well for them

On staggered releases? There’s also hobbyist’s budgets to be considered.

GW has the data from its sales to break that down to median and average. We do not. And of course I can’t prove, but I strongly suspect that whatever the average identified is? It’ll correlate with a release wave, and the gaps between them.

Example of what I’m wibbling about, with numbers purely for illustration?

If your sales data shows that the average sale for a new army is £250 in a month? Then you probably don’t want to be releasing units where the combined cost is £400. Instead, you stagger it across a couple of waves, allowing hobbyist budgets to refresh in between.

This also helps guide your production volumes overall.

Again, this is just a wild claim by some tosser on the internet. I have no privileged information, I cannot support it beyond the absolute certainty that GW has access to the sort of sales data that would allow for such considerations.

GW did an errata-updated rulebook for MESBG (standalone and in a big shiny starter set and accompanied by MESBG's first heavily discounted "combat patrols", promoting the system to new players) a year before releasing a full rewrite edition. Invalidating new books is just a regular Tuesday to them. "It wouldn't have a long shelf life" is never a good argument against GW doing something

I'm not sure why any discussion of TOW's profitability would apply the same metrics for success as their more conventional lines. TOW is almost entirely comprised of kits whose molds and sculpts were paid for literally decades ago. It doesn't have to sell well to still turn a profit when the investment and overhead are negligible, and only the new kits have any need to recoup design and tooling costs.

If TOW really is struggling and GW is considering pulling the plug, the first thing they'll do is stop pumping more money into it. So if we go, say, a year without any substantial releases, then it's time to worry.

Not Online!!! wrote:
In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.

Yeah, TOW needed more. I am an oldhead now, I suppose, but not such an oldhead that the 20th century skeletons have enough charm in them for me to pay 2026 GW prices for them.

Cathay was great. We needed more of that and sooner.

The community really will get all pent up and upset about anything these days, spawning rumours of nowhere. The reason why TOW hasn't seen anything for a while is obvious - 40k 11th edition, GW always clears the decks for a major 40k edition release in the summer and doesn't want anything conflicting with it.

If TOW hasn't seen another substantial release before the end of the year, then maybe we can all start doomposting about stagnant sales and GW screwing up TOW.

For what it's worth, I fully expect the 1.5 book and the long rumoured starter set to drop some point in late summer/early Autumn once 40k clears away. What I'm more interested in is what we see next - if Dark Elves or Kislev get announced this year or early next, then I think that alone will destroy any rumours that the game is struggling.

 Londinium wrote:
The community really will get all pent up and upset about anything these days, spawning rumours of nowhere. The reason why TOW hasn't seen anything for a while is obvious - 40k 11th edition, GW always clears the decks for a major 40k edition release in the summer and doesn't want anything conflicting with it.

If TOW hasn't seen another substantial release before the end of the year, then maybe we can all start doomposting about stagnant sales and GW screwing up TOW.

No need to be so dramatic. People are just speculating, no harm in that.

It is a little jarring for all the Youtube guys to be like, "Oh my God, they pulled the rulebook from the website, a 1.5 rulebook must be coming!" and then you go to a forum and it feels like people are going, "Well I guess the game's dead now."

Obviously they pulled the rulebook because they're releasing a new rulebook, they may well have pulled the battalion boxes to release new battalion boxes, or just more expensive identical battalion boxes. We have to wait for 40K to come out, the new TOW stuff will still probably be announced in June. People looking for this game to not get a lot of new kits and support are going to be sorely disappointed.

 lord_blackfang wrote:
GW did an errata-updated rulebook for MESBG (standalone and in a big shiny starter set and accompanied by MESBG's first heavily discounted "combat patrols", promoting the system to new players) a year before releasing a full rewrite edition. Invalidating new books is just a regular Tuesday to them. "It wouldn't have a long shelf life" is never a good argument against GW doing something

funnily enough, there are rumours for a TK vs WE box to progress the story as TK are moving into Athel Loren
And that there is a box with Chaos VS Cathay coming

People assuming that it must bei either with a 1.5 book but could ss well be that it is both with 1.5 now with Cathay and 2.0 soon with TK.

The Warhammer Old World project was a little cynical on first release

it was deliberately released with the two worse selling army's for the last Warhammer cycle

Brittionans
Tomb kings

Both sold like hot cakes when 1st released but the battalion boxset both fell off a cliff sales wise once the froth had died down with in 6 months

due to two things - everyone who wanted one bought them / everyone else dusting off the old army in the loft

But

The sales were enough in the 1st 6 months to tell GW there´s enough life in WoW to plough investment in to a new army ´Cathy´

also GW was wise enough to cap expectations of only a limited range of armies. it wasnt going to be the sprall of the old warhammer times
again but

now theyve reached the end of the line with all release´s for all armies they said they would do

-------

do they let it die by doing a sporadic release of the odd item for each over the next 2 years / cast order old classics
or
throw a curve ball / release a legacy faction...

each army before release. all old boxsets in Aos was out of stock for 6 month beforehand especially empire / beastmen
Dark elves are currently out of stock / have been for about 2 months


will there be a surpise annoucement of a new dark faction rise in WoW

 Ashiraya wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:
In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.

Yeah, TOW needed more. I am an oldhead now, I suppose, but not such an oldhead that the 20th century skeletons have enough charm in them for me to pay 2026 GW prices for them.

Cathay was great. We needed more of that and sooner.

Wasn't kislev on the rumor mill for some time aswell?

Kislev were pretty much the first new thing we saw for Old World in concept art. So they are certainly in the works. I'm still unsure if we'll see them as a tail end of the current edition or as a launch set release for a 2.0 rules edition.

Either way they'd be the next NEW army I'd be expecting to see. Now granted we might see Dark Elves before then since that's using already in production models making a game jump.

As for updates to older armies I'm very sure they are coming, its just a waiting game.

 Ashiraya wrote:

 Londinium wrote:
The community really will get all pent up and upset about anything these days, spawning rumours of nowhere. The reason why TOW hasn't seen anything for a while is obvious - 40k 11th edition, GW always clears the decks for a major 40k edition release in the summer and doesn't want anything conflicting with it.

If TOW hasn't seen another substantial release before the end of the year, then maybe we can all start doomposting about stagnant sales and GW screwing up TOW.

No need to be so dramatic. People are just speculating, no harm in that.

It is a news and rumours thread, though – not a speculation one.

It has had speculation too from basically the onset.

Seriously, go back in the 400 previous pages of this thread. You will find so, so much speculation, large and small. Same with the other N&R threads, actually.

Not Online!!! wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:
In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.

Yeah, TOW needed more. I am an oldhead now, I suppose, but not such an oldhead that the 20th century skeletons have enough charm in them for me to pay 2026 GW prices for them.

Cathay was great. We needed more of that and sooner.

Wasn't kislev on the rumor mill for some time aswell?

I cant see it being kislev

4th human army - straight after Cathy, very unlikely

skaven are big in AoS, so got to be darkelves or curve ball of chaos dwarfs looking at whats hit in Bloodbowl

.

I hope it's Dark Elves. I'd be in the market for some of their infantry, especially if they came in a nicely discounted battalion!

I remain deeply ambivalent about the game itself though. I'm just very happy it's easy to pick up the miniatures again!

 rockgod2304 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:
In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.

Yeah, TOW needed more. I am an oldhead now, I suppose, but not such an oldhead that the 20th century skeletons have enough charm in them for me to pay 2026 GW prices for them.

Cathay was great. We needed more of that and sooner.

Wasn't kislev on the rumor mill for some time aswell?

I cant see it being kislev

4th human army - straight after Cathy, very unlikely

skaven are big in AoS, so got to be darkelves or curve ball of chaos dwarfs looking at whats hit in Bloodbowl

.

If its new stuff - Not sure they care if they are human or not - its a new army that no one has so should see fine?

Tiger Warriors of Cathay are another possibility

 rockgod2304 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:
Wasn't kislev on the rumor mill for some time aswell?

I cant see it being kislev.

If you go back to the early WarCom posts about The Old World, Kislev is the first new thing that gets discussed as being worked on for it - they talk about how they worked with the TW:W devs on designing the faction, and effectively producing an 8th ed army book to use as a bible.

I don't think they ever mentioned where they were with digital sculpts, or anything, but they were definitely putting in the dev work.

 Da Boss wrote:
I hope it's Dark Elves. I'd be in the market for some of their infantry, especially if they came in a nicely discounted battalion!

I remain deeply ambivalent about the game itself though. I'm just very happy it's easy to pick up the miniatures again!

They've got to be out soon, right? Every DE model from aos is now OOP, except for witch elves (which likely means we'd get the metal versions, which is fine)

I just want cold one knights :/

I'm also waiting for them to reveal new chaos warriors, since both them and knights are just gone now.

Yeah unless GW rushes out new Daughters of Khaine models I expect Old world to get the old Witch Aelves and Cauldron.

They might get a new morathi sculpt though as the original on pegasus broke last time they did a made-to-order run,

known reliable rumormongers on TGA and elsewhere have been saying for quite some time there is no indication of any of the Legacy factions being released in the near future.

Any rumors on future MtO releases?

chaos0xomega wrote:
known reliable rumormongers on TGA and elsewhere have been saying for quite some time there is no indication of any of the Legacy factions being released in the near future.

To be fair the near future is all going to be 40K new edition for a bit

Also, "the near future" is three months at most unless you actually have a line on the dev team and/or sculptors and I'm pretty sure they have 24/7 bodyguards/surveillance on them now. Most of the leaks seem to be from third parties making proof pre-prints of books and boxes.

 Overread wrote:
Yeah unless GW rushes out new Daughters of Khaine models I expect Old world to get the old Witch Aelves and Cauldron.

They might get a new morathi sculpt though as the original on pegasus broke last time they did a made-to-order run,

Frankly I'd be fine with that. The thought of getting a unit of Witch Elves for cheaper than the current aftermarket stupidity is appealing to me.