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I think it would have a positive effect on other companies in the short term, as former GW customers would look for alternatives, but in the long term the effect would be negative as there would be less new people getting into the wargaming hobby.
GW is far more visible than all other wargaming companies combined thanks to their retail store chains in prominent, busy places and the popularity of their IP which also includes videogames and the like.
The vast majority of wargamers starts with GW and learns of the existence of the Wargaming hobby by being exposed to GW products/IP.

Riquende wrote:
You don't just 'jump in to the void' because it exists. Star Trek had been cancelled (by Abe Simpson no less) and there was no grand wave of sci fi that followed it. TV networks, film studios and the public didn't have a sci fi void that needed filling, they didn't want sci fi. Gene Roddenberry couldn't get his Phase 2 show off the ground throughout the 1970s, the pilot was later turned into The Motion Picture after Star Wars.

Yarp. Just yesterday I was reading the memoirs of a guy in the toy biz (this bit, after the Mickey puppet photo, in particular) saying that after the moon landing in 1969 (the year of ST: TOS's cancellation too) nobody was interested in space anymore. At least not in buying 'space toys'. It wouldn't be before 1977 until space became popular again. And even then it might not have happened: nobody was at all interested in what George Lucas came up with until audiences saw it in cinemas. At a mid-production showing for the industry, only one guy thought that there was any promise in it at all. Some guy called Steven...
(And then, after making a few mediocre films and a hit trilogy, it started to unravel and people saw that he really wasn't much of a genius filmmaker and his success was actually due to the people around him. A lot like Peter Jackson...)

 Iron_Captain wrote:
I think it would have a positive effect on other companies in the short term, as former GW customers would look for alternatives, but in the long term the effect would be negative as there would be less new people getting into the wargaming hobby.

There are fewer new people getting into the hobby via GW anyway. It could be that GW is increasingly chasing people away from the wargaming hobby.

GW is far more visible than all other wargaming companies combined thanks to their retail store chains in prominent, busy places

That's becoming less true, too.

and the popularity of their IP which also includes videogames and the like.

How popular are they outside the 'oh man these guys are just like my 40K army' set? Anyone got the sales figures and some comparisons?

The vast majority of wargamers starts with GW and learns of the existence of the Wargaming hobby by being exposed to GW products/IP

Before GW no wargamers started with GW. Maybe after GW the influx will be reduced a little, but I don't think it'll be as moribund as some make out. GW never advertised or marketed except with a B&M presence and word of mouth. After GW, I expect a resurgence in FLGSs and average gamers pimping their new favourite games will have some of the same effect. The latter's happening right now, especially since the 'word' about GW, more and more, is 'stay away'.

I said earlier that today's grognards are the ones who still scratch their heads about GW's popularity. In the event of GW's demise I expect the next generation of grognards to scratch their heads about GW's popularity too, except to wonder where it all went wrong, and why none of the kids give a rat's backside about their 50,000pts of spakky marians. That's happening right now too, with all the denials about GW's stupid decisions and how that turns people - including new kids - off.

 Vermis wrote:
GW never advertised or marketed except with a B&M presence and word of mouth.

That's less than true. GW used to buy ads in magazines such as Wizard back in the early 90's.

I'm sorry. Maybe that's the key to their revival. Another couple of magazine ads to keep them going for the next 20+ years?

I'm torn. I do want GW to crash and burn, but I also don't know what it would do to the hobby. If it would hurt the hobby, then I'd want GW to stay afloat. If it wouldn't hurt, then let them go down.

My ideal would be for GW to slowly die into irrelevancy while several other companies take its place.

But honestly, I have no idea and can only guess.

I think that GW going under will have exactly the same effect as TSR going under - a lot of panic, a bunch of people going 'No! this cannot be!'

And somebody either buying the tattered remains of GW or scooping up the IP.

I do not see GW successfully selling themselves to another company until the end - while 40k is a good property, I believe that GW overvalues it (and themselves).

The effects of a collapsing GW on supporting companies are the only downsides that I currently see for GW falling like a souffle in an earthquake.

The Auld Grump

The death of GW will be something like the Horus Heresy. A champion of destruction will unite gamers from across the world to lead an assault on Holy-Nottingham. The remaining Loyalists will retreat to the inner sanctums of Warhammer World, aware of their God-Emperor Kirby's demise, yet stalwart in their faith to the last. The battle will be grim, but at the end a champion of GW will strike down the demon princes of Privateer Press and Corvus Beli in single combat.

The remnants will rebuild their once-glorious empire, never truly allowing the masses to know that their great leader died, so many years ago.

I suspect the death of GW will put the hurt on all the companies that make GW alternative models (Maxmini, Kromlech, etc.) as there will be less demand for their now unsupported product, but will benefit companies that make complete games (Corvus Belli, Privateer Press, Bolt Action, etc.) as demand will grow for currenty supported product.

Unless there's some looming disaster they're hiding, GW won't collapse overnight. Independent stores have time to prepare and ween themselves off a reliance on GW product. Many have already taken a blow when GW suddenly ended worldwide mail order. That put quite a dent in the sales of some stores, who sold product around the world, but they mostly managed. My local store has a huge amount of GW stock but all the other product lines are expanding and it's MtG where the killing seems to be made. I'd be more worried if MtG was going to suddenly vanish.

GW closing wouldn't be a help as they do create sales, but this is quite a big hobby and a lot of people aren't interested in what GW are selling, if they ever were. Also I think the benefits GW bring are overstated. GW bring some people into the hobby, but they've also made huge efforts to stifle the rest of the hobby by cutting their customers off from it. The decline in independent stores in the UK is largely due to the aggressive expansion they undertook in the 90s. GW doesn't help the wider hobby that much, they serve their own interests and are hostile towards all other manufacturers. Many customers seem to leave the hobby once they tire of GW, having little exposure or experience of anything else.

If GW *did* go out of business, I wonder if there would be any fan-organized effort to keep the game going, ala Blood Bowl. There's certainly such an abundance of WHFB and 40k products, and people definitely want to still be able to use their minis for gaming purposes. Of course, this effort wouldn't be anywhere near as strong as still-operating companies like, say, Privateer Press or Covrus Beli selling their current-and-up-to-date products, but I feel all these GW models will get used somehow.

 Howard A Treesong wrote:
Unless there's some looming disaster they're hiding, GW won't collapse overnight. Independent stores have time to prepare and ween themselves off a reliance on GW product. Many have already taken a blow when GW suddenly ended worldwide mail order. That put quite a dent in the sales of some stores, who sold product around the world, but they mostly managed. My local store has a huge amount of GW stock but all the other product lines are expanding and it's MtG where the killing seems to be made. I'd be more worried if MtG was going to suddenly vanish.

I've already seen a shift in many stores where GW sections have gotten smaller whilst other miniature sections have gotten larger and not just to make room for all the new games on the market.

 Accolade wrote:
If GW *did* go out of business, I wonder if there would be any fan-organized effort to keep the game going, ala Blood Bowl. There's certainly such an abundance of WHFB and 40k products, and people definitely want to still be able to use their minis for gaming purposes. Of course, this effort wouldn't be anywhere near as strong as still-operating companies like, say, Privateer Press or Covrus Beli selling their current-and-up-to-date products, but I feel all these GW models will get used somehow.

Comparatively speaking, Blood Bowl is a much smaller, and much better written game than 40K, and thus takes far less effort on the part of the fans to keep it supported. On the 40K side, just look at how even the big tournaments can't all agree on one set of standards to use. Look at Dakka's YMDC forum to see how "easy" it is for people to agree on rules interpretations.

TheAuldGrump wrote:I think that GW going under will have exactly the same effect as TSR going under - a lot of panic, a bunch of people going 'No! this cannot be!'

And somebody either buying the tattered remains of GW or scooping up the IP.

I do not see GW successfully selling themselves to another company until the end - while 40k is a good property, I believe that GW overvalues it (and themselves).

The effects of a collapsing GW on supporting companies are the only downsides that I currently see for GW falling like a souffle in an earthquake.

The Auld Grump

This is essentially my point of view. However, if hypothetically GW did disappear completely, the following would happen.

1-Aftermarket suppliers using near-GW images and selling to GW customers would take a HUGE hit. Some would succeed on their own merit, but most would fail. GW is by far the biggest driver of the conversion parts market.
2-FLGS's would initially see a small dip as some GW players leave wargaming altogether. FLGS's would probably make this up and more shortly as folks move to other games and GW store shoppers start to shop at the FLGS instead.
3-The big winers would be the other large and established games that would welcome GW fans with open arms. Flames, WM, Infinity, mantic, etc, all would get new customers.
4-LOTS of companies would try to jump in with their own "mass-battle" games. Some of these companies would over-extend themselves financially, so we would loose
5-Some smaller companies would beniift. Most GW fans would probably migrate to a new all-in-one system, but without the necessity of spending all their $ on GW, some gamers might branch out into indie games as well.
6-There would be some competition and reshuffling at some game companies as ex-GW staff flood the job market. GW store staff are probably out of luck, but GW studio and design (and even some corporate) staff probably have lots of options.

Sum up, the big winners are FLGS owners (who get some ex-GW store customers) and the other "big games" are the big winners. In the past, I would have said that the hobby as a whole would suffer since GW has been the gateway drug for so many wargamers. I just don't think it's entirely the case anymore. GW is still probably the biggest gateway, but there are so many other popular games now that if GW disappeared newbies would enter from other doors.

I think a great example of game companies going away over night is- Wizkids. They was a very popular company Mechwarrior they had a lock tight copyright and patent on the Click system as a whole hero clicks and everything else. But then came pirates the card game that you built ships out of cards and made them. Then Wizards was working on a pocket model version of star wars. Now wizards released the Star Wars game and Wiz instantly sued claiming IP their game and design after all was patented. What people did not know was the game designers from wizkids that made pirates went to work for WoC and designed the Star Wars game. Now what ended up happening is instead of paying Wizkids ( they knew they had a lock tight law suit and was going to get a huge settlement) Hasbro just bought WizKids. What they did was pretty sketchy they went to upper deck and basically bullied them into stopping production of all products from Wizkids. So now Wizkids is all but dead and Wizards does not even make the pocket model games any more.

Flames of war and all those games look great on paper but historical mini games have been done and done and done. They always end the same way normally gone or no one plays them after the newness wears off. I think GW does need to change things. They need to start making Rules and stop being a " Model Company"

With that said Star Wars attack wing is a dead game it self. All the designers are gone. They still have never fixed BORG and are just finishing the run they all ready had planned. They always was on 1/2 bail mode if the model orders slowed down they was going to can the game and still will. But they cannot openly say this if they do everyone will run immediatly to a new game actually causing them to end it sooner.

Same with GW if they come out and say hay guys we are stopping production after 7th edition of 40k for 4 years.(new models / Codexes) Then everyone and there mother would drop it on e-bay the stores would stop orders and they would go belly up within 3-4 months.


I think the problems with GW started around the time they start the Lord of the Rings crap. They diverted so many people to that game, making rules, designing models, and they went on auto pilot on 40k and Fantasy both. Now they are slowly learning and trying to repair it.

I've not heard anything about that for wizkids at all. If anything, it's the opposite.

Attack Wing was launched in August 2013. - Pretty much exactly a year later, ICV2 released the stats that Attack Wing was the 3rd highest grossing wargame in the USA.

Now, I'm not going to disagree that the game has massive games balance problems, but to be frank, how much impact has that had on GW games for the last 35 years?

Well in itself not a lot but bleeding out of 1 cut is nothing, Getting cut by razor wire from a dozen different games that did not exist 5 years ago is. The wizkids deal went down almost 7 years ago now. The Wizkids today is not the same company by far it used to be. It basically got broken apart. Now they got a lot of money out of it but the player base is what got hurt. I remember selling my Mech warrior stuff for around 5k dollars then less then 3 months later they was gone. The game store that bought all them from me actually called me about it and asked if I knew they they was not going to be around before I sold them the models. And I'm talking multiple drop ships, ever tourney prize le mech's since the start Dark Age and over 3 cases of product per edition including the last one. They went from being worth a lot to nothing over night.

OMG it is true! So much hate towards GW and now even the mods make a thread about killing GW [joke]

Yes, i believe that companies that make "only" conversion parts will suffer. But as we seen before, the void left by discontinuing
other systems in GW were filled by other companies, also a lot of people who were hesitating to jump ship will finally do so.

If I were a company that only made stuff for GW models, I'd start diversifying. Maybe make complete models that could fit several different types of games or even their own small game.

I find this whole thread very interesting being an Australian.

I kind of see our market as what the US will turn unto if GW continue their current decline. We seem to have almost entirely, with a few die hard fanboy exceptions, weaned ourselves off GW and we seem to be thriving.

I imagine it could be a sudden blow for other markets if GW disappeared tomorrow but if its anything like what's currently happening here the only people hurt by it will be those foolish enough not to shif their focus despite a ton of warning signs.

As it is here most places only seem to carry the bare minimum GW stock and there are plenty of people being brought into the hobby by friends and starting with Warmachine or dyst wars while people wandering into GW stores almost die of shock at the price.

A lot of people seem to be quoting the positive effect GW plc used to have in the 1990s.

When they had a lots of good game with good rule sets, and brought a wide range of people into the table top war game hobby.
With lots of good sized stores in high foot fall areas,that were 'hobby centers'.

Now GW plc seem to appeal to a very much smaller demographic , and seem to have such a negative effect in the wider world.

Just to point out 40k and WHFB were on a decline before LoTR was launched.(From the financial reports and other information available.)

The easy success the LoTR licence brought GW plc made them loose focus on what they were ,(by gamers for gamers,) and what was important (Customers needs.)

But its much easier to pretend nothing is wrong , when the alternative is having to make a massive U turn, and engage with customers in a meaningful way.

Even 5 years ago loosing GW plc would put a massive dent in the table top games hobby .
But now thanks to GW incompetent management , the effect will be quite minimal in 3 to 5 years time.

See how you can find a good side in anything if you try really hard.!

In the short run, GW disappearing in a puff of logic would have a beneficial effect on all other companies, as customers would migrate to them.
In the long run, GW's sudden absence would reduce the number of miniature gamers quite drastically as they are one of the big entry companies.
In the very long run, I think the miniature game scene would rebuild, but with more diversity. This can also happen if GW keeps bleeding customers.

Lanrak wrote:
A lot of people seem to be quoting the positive effect GW plc used to have in the 1990s.

Honestly, the main difference is that you could buy a blister pack of something useful GW-related every week by saving a bit of lunch money.
The closest thing now is 3 push-fit plastic space marines at £6, or 5 skeletons for £6.

Considering I fondly remember buying 30 skeletons, 8 skeleton horsemen and a chariot for £10, it's a bit on the steep side these days.

Does anyone know -- how much commonality is there between GW and other miniatures companies in secondary contractors, distribution channels, and the like?

For all its issues, 40k is still "the big game", and if it goes under, lots of people will quit entirely, lots of gaming stores will go out of business or give up shelf space to higher-margin products (read: Magic), and lots of secondary businesses will vanish (I don't think Battlefoam and the like would survive without is 40k related sales).

I also suspect that, for die-hard 40k/WHFB players (and that's what's left at this point), if GW goes down, they're just going to quit wargaming entirely. After investing all the time and money in a game and have it just vanish, I don't know that they would want to start over with Warmachine or whatever.

If someone buys GW, it's probably going to be for the IP, not the model business. Disney's very expensive acquisition of Marvel had everything to do with their stable of characters, and almost nothing to do with their monthly comic book sales. A lot of GW's dipping revenues are due to the loss of licensed video game revenue. It's possible to imagine a scenario where some well-heeled multimedia company buys the company, ditches the vestiges of the retail chain, aggressively pursues using the 40k IP in video games, comics, and other media, and maybe even outsources tabletop rules development and leaves Nottingham focused on the one function they are undeniably good at, the production of miniatures.

I kind of think the ideal scenario is that things go badly for GW, and then something happens to turn it around. Right now they are one of the only companies that can actually grow the market and the hobby in any meaningful way. Anecdotal: virtually every wargamer I've ever spoken with started playing with 40k, even if they've long since moved on to another company's games.

One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.

I don't doubt that they are significantly less than 95%, but even if they're as low as 20%, that would still really shake up alot of stores, suppliers. 1/5 of the market disappearing would be revolutionary in any area of business.

if GW is 20% of a game store's business (proably accurate for some FLGS), and it suddenly goes out of business. It's going to take at least a little while for GWers who do shift to other games to make the shift. A loss of 20% of revenue for a couple months is huge. Imagine what happens if those two months happen to be over the thanksgiving/christmas season, which is make-or-break for so many stores. 20% of sales for those 2 months could be HUGE, and could be more than some stores can cope with, especially if they don't have large reserves.

The market will survive, gaming will survive, most FLGS's will survive, but we would loose some FLGS's and some small GW-dependent companies.

I think the players are less than 20% of all players, the amount of money spent is more than that because GW stuff is a lot more expensive, but since the bulk of it goes through their own shops and webstore, the impact on FLGS would be less severe.

It probably would be worse in the USA where there are more FLGS and fewer GW shops.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.

While 95% is obviously not the case (not since the mid 90's anyway) I think you sell them a little short. The inclusion of X-wing probably does push them below 50% of the market. Maybe even down below 40% (less likely but possible).

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.

Either way, even at 20% you'd see a huge shake-up if they went belly up overnight. That said they aren't likely to go overnight. So it's not nearly as large a deal.

I think in the short run some companies will benefit while a fair number of FLGS take a solid hit. Medium term you'll see a stabilizing and possible growth of the existing major companies. Long term unless you start to get a pressence like GW currently has (i.e. being everywhere) you'll see a decline in the number of kids entering the hobby. Like it or not many, many, many of the people who get into wargaming come into it thru GW. Why? Always available demo games at a ridiculous number of public stores. While some people might be available to run demos of games at the FLGS the simple fact is that if someone isn't there to run a demo game you don't get nearly the number of new players.

We'd just have to wait and see though.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
If you are talking about players then possibly. But that wasn't what your post indicated.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

Assume we are just talking about the fantasy/sci-fi market here? Historicals wargaming existed many years before GW, would exist many years afterwards if it were to suddenly disappear. I don't think people who only play 40k say or post on a forum or two realise how big that side of the market is.

In answer to the OP, I think it would no doubt cause a big ripple, but the effect in 2014 would be far less than probably even 5 years ago. If you only played or knew of GW games for wargaming then it might cause you to quit altogether, but these days you can't really play in GW stores and if you do play in a club/FLGS then it's almost certain that you would know of the existence of other games. And, even if GW stopped making new games remember that the existing kits and rulesets would probably stay in circulation for many years.

 Hulksmash wrote:

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.
.

Spartan games too.

Historicals make up a far bigger section of war games, and war games players than you give credit for hulksmash.

Gw is an undeniable big fish in the sci/fi fantasy element of wargames, but bear in mind, this is only a small part if the greater hobby.

Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year. When I quit magic around 06 when my daughter was born I sold cases of cards I have won and never opened. Starcity games bought part of my collection and several unopened boxes of alliances from me and even then it was the highest value they had ever paid for 1 collection. I went to my local gaming store and opened my last sealed box of it and gave the owner and a few of the people I played with a unplayed force of will right out of the pack. All of them still have then to this day most are still unplayed.