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That, right there, is the easiest way to deal with TMCs. Sniper weapons. Pathfinders are perfect for the task, with their added AP.

95% CI, ie you +/- z*s.e(u) where z is close to 2, is done for statistics analysis when the data is distributed normally.

The beauty of dice is that we know the distribution exactly. We don't have to guess. We don't have data on hrs worked and hrs sleep and try to find the relationship. We have dice that (assuming they're fair) follow the binomial distribution.

So CI are pointless for dice. For the hrs worked and hrs sleep relationship, we can say for every hr extra you work, you sleep 0.1 hrs or 6 minutes less. However because, unlike dice, we don't know the exact distribution, we give a 95% CI, thus while it is expected you sleep 6 minutes less for every extra hr of work, we are 95% confidant you sleep between 3 minutes and 9 minutes less for every extra hr of work.

Once someone gives you the distribution, like I have for the dakkafex, you take those numbers as given. They are just as accurate as saying the chance of flipping heads is 50%. You want to work out what you have a good chance of getting? Just look at the numbers, they tell the story.

And yes when I noticed the 4*5 pathfinders, I laughed. Great anti-zilla unit right there. Lemme do the distribution for 5 pathfinder shots, brb.

Olinari, one thing I think most people forget about numbers (myself included) is that things will balance over time. We all have to remember that the math will balance out through the course of all the games we play and won't always work at the moment that we think it should.

Orion

If I flip a coin, and I flip heads, what's the probability of me flipping tails next flip?

It's still 50% as everyone knows.

It will not "balance out" like people say it will.

All you can say is that, after flipping the first heads, over time that extra heads will become less significant.

If you rolled 3 6's, doesn't reduce your chance of rolling that again. It's just that over time, that roll becomes insignificant. It does not "balance out", you will not "counter" all your hits with misses.



Just because your dakkafex didn't kill a marine this turn, doesn't mean it will kill 4 marines next turn to balance that out. It's just over 100 turns, that one turn of not killing marines will become insignificant.

<table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Pathfinders vs dakkafex
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code"># success - P(# success)
0               - 0.237
1               - 0.396
2               - 0.364
3               - 0.0879
4               - 0.0146
5               - 0.000977
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Average = 1.25.

This is quite true, and in my opinion this is what people mean when they say balance out.

This is because statistics say that over the course of those one hundred tosses the average will be 50 heads and 50 tails, even if at some point you string 13 heads in a row.

It is just like in third grade math when the teacher formed three or four groups and had each group flip a coin one hundred times. At the end the three groups tended to show the statistical average even if one group was predominantly heads.

We may debate the semantics but our general viewpoint is the same. The phrase "balance out" and "the law of averages state" are pretty much the same thing here and well proven and accepted by society.

Orion

I see why you say this, but I dunno...

As you point out, nobody is going to inflict 1.67 wounds in a round. They'll do 1 or 2. Or whatever other integer value.

On the other hand, a confidence interval and average is always three values. With the Dakkafex, there's only 8 shots, and thus only 9 possible outcomes. But if there's 50 shots, there's 51 possible outcomes. Even if some of those are dismissably unlikely, there's still probably a good 20 or so that are all equally likely.

I like the confidence interval and average because you know that no matter how much shooting is going on, you've still got three values.

I am going to play in the ‘ardboyz tournament at Game Empire in Pasadena.

Darrian13 has shown them the wonders of the Godzilla list, and I will have to get by at least one of them. Last RTT there, I fought 3 Godzilla lists in a row….I went 2-1 only losing to Darrian13.

No bug list is undefeatable, but they are not easy to beat. Generally what I do is back up making sure that I keep the Dakkafexes out of range, while shooting the crap out of the little bugs that are advancing. After I take out the little bugs, I go after the big bugs with shooting and assault.

To many people on this board that have shown you in post after post that the GoDzilla list is not DUH BOOM you think it is.  Eldar player dropped the nid list, and taking out a Hive Tyrant in hth as well. I have done that with two squads of marines ( I lost two marines ).

2nd ed guy said his army never lost. He ran 117 model for his nid army and from everything I heard. He had never lost a game because of the layers you have to fend off to get to the back row. I looked at it and new, that I should be able to handle it. The end of the game my chaplin was kicking the snot ouf ot what was left on the board for the Nids. Granted I had very little left and he did as well, It was a VP win and I won the game.

Onlainari---------------Please re-read what I post about wounds bro. You really need to read before you post, that way you don't  mis quote somebody.

Both of you go roll 7 dice and see how many wounds you get?  Maybe you might see your MC die to bolter fire. I dont care to post my list because that is all you want. You want something you can use your math to rip apart. Math does not win games! Maybe on a computer game because it is base off math. P

 ((((failing to understand the SAFH Marine concepts that Ed himself helped develop?))))  I dont know about you, but when the WD hit the shelfs about combat squads. I was all over that, and I have been playing from that point on. Everybody has said that five men with a upgrade is a waste of time. Add a p gun and make it six or eight men ie even number is always better. Five men works great me, and if they redo the book it will only change my set up. I carry enough heavy to assault weapon to make four ten men tact squads easy.

If I am not mistaken Phyryxis, post after post talked about keeping the daks safe from hth. Now if you dont have that chance to keep them safe. What happens to them then bud, they die and that is something the list will grind to a halt if that happens.

I really dont think you understand set up for a full FOC chart. I have 17 units to place and each unit is placed the way I want to. I will burn you out of option and then set up what I want to kill after that. I have done it to many times. My dev squads are dirt cheap because they are made for placement. You have already started to set out your heavies. When I do get to vets, you are looking at str 10 lascannon, thou they are not str for you. I run a balanced list and you think its crap because its balanced. Mutli melta not tended too are still tank killers once in range. Once it really in range because you are trying to work other units on the board, its going to bake the tank.  Two of these have put many wounds on carnies and Tyrant in games. If the fact that you have so much to deal with, you can just snip here and snip there. You have to face an army of marines, an army that does not stop because you nock off a few lascannon. Guess you forgot about rapid fire plasma guns now, Oh wait gen charging. Nope they are already dead because you cant block ever path to the targets I wish to kill because of placement.

I have enjoyed your math thou, both of you. Yet you fail to understand the power of the DICE GODS!  Sniper dropped a blood thirster bud. The only shoot for the squad and it was the only guy. It was the last turn, and it had one wound on it. I was like what the heck, plank, dead, omg. YAAYYAYAY. Glory in dropping a Bloodthirster in the last round!

Could it be the new list needs a few wins to help people buy up nid product?  GW does things like that in order to spice up product. They did it with bikes did they not. You could also think that there are not that many SM players in that area of the country.

You have taken math and removed the spirt of the game. This is why you have place your army on the wall.

 

In 3rd end, I faced four MC maxed out with 64 hormies at 1500 points. Turn six was a Hive Tryant that killed two marines the whole game. Shock and ahhh baby cause this guy to freak out. Ya, he made a mistake but it was the raw power of the SM horde on the board. My 3rd game was vs MC with 4 maxed gen backing. Guy did not go over the hill to face the two dev squads. He went around the hill to the other side and face all the bolters instead. He got a few marines, and I got all four squads. When you put your army on the board, you are looking to freak somebody out. Dam, I have to face that.....

  You keep telling me your key unit is the Dakfex, and yet everybody on the board has talked about the hth factor.

When the day come that I get a chance to face this army at 1850 and I have lost the game. I will post everything, until as it goes nids have died each time to my list and prior list. So as of now, I have not lost a game because of my list.  Its not grand, it just a crap load of guys with guns, knifes and a good old 3 plus save.  Maybe you should try a horde Nid army with same save across the board. You matter how much fire power he has, he is still just ripping apart 5 plus saves. You still have chunch half to go and only one more turn.

 

Will talk later on,,,

 

Choas  vs Dak, Dak would still win Phy because the lascannon guy would still be shooting things that a lascannon shots. Why on earth would you waste a str 9 on a grunt.....

 

Posted By Tarval on 09/01/2007 9:58 PM

Yet you fail to understand the power of the DICE GODS!

You fail to read the goddamn math. I am taking the dice gods into account you moron.

All right, Tarval get back to us when you have won the preliminaries in the 'Ard Boyz tourny. Then we will see how you do at the semi's with your list.

After that you can certainly claim it is well balanced and adequate to all challengers. At the same token no one else will be able to claim you are off base because you can back up your words with deeds.

If you don't want to prove it in theory then prove it in reality.

I thought you've never played against Godzilla? I thought you've never lost?



OMFG... Dude, read what YOU post before you post it.

Half of it is incomprehensible nonsense.

Seriously, what the hell is wrong with you? You NEVER pay attention to anything anybody else says, then you post incoherant gibberish yourself, crap we have to read ten times to even take a guess at what you're trying to say, and now you're demanding that we pay attention to what you say?



You're basing your tactics off of WD articles? That's awesome, dude.

What does "combat squads" even mean to you? Are you playing from the Dark Angels list? Or from the vanilla Marine list?



What are you even talking about? If I can't keep them safe? Why can't I? I don't have countercharge units anymore?

I give up, dude.

You're so belligerantly stupid, it's impossible to even communicate with you.

Got to give him credit where it's due though, he spelled my name right.

Posted By Phryxis on 09/01/2007 10:29 PM

Darrian13 has shown them the wonders of the Godzilla list, and I will have to get by at least one of them. Last RTT there, I fought 3 Godzilla lists in a row….I went 2-1 only losing to Darrian13.

I thought you've never played against Godzilla? I thought you've never lost?

That is my quote. He does not know how to quote people.


But as far as that quote goes, lets me do some explaining. I am not a local "game store hero" who is able to beat all of the regulars. If you look at my sig. below, you will see my record at the largest GW events. This year I am <st1:date month="11" day="2" year="2002">11-2-2</st1:date> against the best players in the country, and not just the people who come to my store.

  So I can say that I am a pretty good player. A Godzilla list played by someone who does not know what they are doing is very hard to beat. A Godzilla list played by someone who does know what they are doing is next to impossible to beat. And if you notice, I did lose to Darrian13 who is another top player. I would also like to point out that in the Adepticon Gladiator tournament (Which is the same battle points only format as the ‘ard boyz tournament+forgeworld) I was able to beat an army with 2 warhound titans, but my one loss was to a Godzilla list.

Here is where we know that your list is not that great. In the 2 GTs this year, Space Marines did not go very well, and the footsloggers I would imagine did even worse. But the Godzilla Nids did do very well.

You are right, the Godzilla nids did not win all of their games, but they won a lot more than they lost. And it is again important to know that armies at GTs are played by some on the best players around.

 

Oh, and to the rest of you, I get the impression that Torval is around 13-15 years old. Who else uses White Dwarf to get there tactics from?

Posted By Orion_44 on 09/01/2007 9:03 PM
The opponent had 6 fexes, 2 flying Hive tyrant, 2 squads of genies, and all the rest spine gaunts.

You do realize he was playing an illegal list, right?  Max 1 flying tyrant per list.

Actually no, I assumed this was okay as I faced him at a few tourneys with two flying tyrants. I don't live in Washington anymore so I won't face him now but I will let someone know.

Thanks. I don't have my nid dex as I am in the process of moving across the country and it is all packed up.

Orion

Some of us more casual players read the tactic articles in WD and take something from them. I don't think any1 reads them as the word of the Emperor, but they have helped me a bit in the past.

So Phryxis, how does it feel knowing you have now spent at least 6 pages trying to tell a guy that Zilla Nids is powerful, only to find out that he:

1) plays Dark Angels (and thinks combat squads are the greatest thing since sliced bread)

2) uses multi meltas, plasma pistols and power weapons with basic marines

3) reads white dwarf strategy articles

4) is oblivious to math and statistics

5) is incapable of writing out a coherent arguement/defense to support his claims

6) has a super secret awesome list that massacres everything!!!!!11 (and its probably fluffy to boot!)

7) is going to the 'ardboyz tournament and expecting not to get laughed out of the room. (god I wish I could go now)

You know, I have a distinct feeling that you're TRYING to make me cry...

Well...

It WORKED.... *runs off sobbing to gently cradle a Dakkafex*

I just want to say thank first off because I am at work killing time.  Also, it was almost to the end of my shift last night and I was trying to finish out the post. I am sorry that some of the words and spelling was mis-typed. I was typing as fast as I could because the other guy was ready to take over the shift.

Phryxis, You said you play 81-82 marines and yet you still have no clue as to how I play. If you know how marines work, then why do I have to explain my list to you over and over again? You should of already figured out what my list is?

I, am thinking that some of you have not played that long. Being is you don't know about the WD that talked about combat squads. This WD allowed you for the first time to buy combat squads. You no longer needed to TAKE TEN MEN SQUADS. How many times did a hth god like mob/unit slam into your ten man unit, and finish it all off with ease. There was no tactical article about combat squads on the page. It just allowed you to have five men and the area I played in required you to have the page. I cut out the article so that I could field them in my army. It was not long that I soon fielded five men in every unit.  

Phryxis, No I do not play the DA codex. Thou I have been thinking about returning to the DA chapter. I hated them in 3rd ed and went vanil because of the no fear rule. I enjoyed fleeing because it allowed me to blast that unit that just assaulted my unit. Worked like a charm as well, many time seeing a leader just up and bit it.

I take a lot of gear because people over look it. Well, until it bits them in the arsk when it hits their lines.  Its a well rounded foot slogging army. 

Every now and then I do pick up a WD, only if it has a lot of articles about 40k. I just would rather read up on 40k then warhammer, or LOTR.

THE ENEMIES OF THE EMPEROR FEAR MANY THINGS. THEY FEAR DISCOVERY, DEFEEAT, DESPAIR AND DEATH. YET THERE IS ONE THING THEY FEAR ABOVE ALL OTHERS. THEY FEAR THE WRATH OF THE SPACE MARINE!

Onlai, I would really like to get a chance to get to some of these event. Thou as of now I am building other things that mean more to me than 40k. Thou it would help if GW did not trash the DFW area over price wars. This alone killed the 40k gaming in my area for years. I dont know about you, but it was nice going to 24 to 30 man tournies. Thou that all changed when GW told the local owners to stop giving out 10 percent discount.

Blackmoor, I did not quote anybody via name. I only used text off a page to inform Phryxis that people said they did not have a problem with nids zilla.

Phryxis Yep, never played them.  I would bash your raeindg skills, thou smilpe mistake like that cost you the game.

Thank Orion 44, for pointing out how their math can go so far south its not even funny.

Orion 44 Said, "If you don't want to prove it in theory then prove it in reality." How do you prove something in theory via a list. Do you only prove a percent in theory or the whole thing. There are to many things to factor in a game then just math. We could set up shop and roll for the mission and it could be the mission from hell for the nids. I would still get you list is a joke from the boards. I have based my information off a few games, or the one game vs the mech eldar. I blasted that list so far back in time, it was not even funny.  It not that my list is grand, its because its basic. It does not matter what part you work on, its all the same.

Lets just look at how many MC will die a turn. I would say two MC on the first turn. After that, I would say about another two to three for the last few turns of the game. Planking MC in cover is the reason it would be that way.

Oh well, back to finished up a few models for the Ard Boys. I just hope I have the time to make the finals if I do get to the finals. AC armies are the bane for my army, thou I have played them a few times and won each time. Its just really hard to face something like that.

That would just be Grand to have Phryxis and myself in the finals for the Arb Boys. Clash of the Titans,

Haha two MC's on the first turn. You are a nutter.

I have never and I mean never lost more than one MC in a turn. Normally no one even finishes off one in a turn, they plink it a few times and have to finish it off next turn.

I seriously suggest you play some 40k instead of just making gak up.

Or perhaps you play on empty boards with no terrain and all your guns have infinite range, and ballistic skill 5 and twinlinked with rerolls to wound, and your opponent has to reroll successful saves.

I might not get to if you go and try to hide them all in terrian. Thou I did play on 90 percent terrian in my last game. Its not that I get all the shooting, its that I have so many lanes to shoot from. If you move you fall into another lane of shooting and so on.  Hell, I saced a tact lascannon unit for a Flying Hive Tyrant, got hte hive tyrant...

 

Daks have to be in range and if you are in range. You are going to face everything in my army. Anything out in the open will be dead. I guess once you see the army, you too will run and hide in the terrian. Trying to out shoot me with your 18" and 24" range beind 30 plus inches away.

Longshot, roll 7 dice will ya. Bolter fire get any wounds?

Posted By Longshot on 09/02/2007 9:13 PM
Or perhaps you play on empty boards with no terrain and all your guns have infinite range, and ballistic skill 5 and twinlinked with rerolls to wound, and your opponent has to reroll successful saves.

You mean that isn't how you are supposed to play?

If you roll 7 dice, 2.33 will miss, .77 will wound and .13 will wound an extended carapace fex. Nice try tho.

Zath, the seven dice are already wounds inflicted via bolter fire. So, what you are saying is that a Dak will take 2.33 wounds via bolter fire from seven wounds? Few more hits and he is dead, and now we will plank them with the ap gear,  Maybe another one dead?, or assault if I wanted to.

First off, let me apologize to everyone for responding to Tarval again. There's something magical about his posts that just demands attention.

Tarval: I can tell you have a hard time reading. I'm going to make things bold to help you pick out key points.



I have no clue how you play because you can't explain yourself. Seriously. LISTEN: What you type is almost totally impossible to make sense of. You need to understand that nobody knows what you're talking about. It may make sense to you, but it's barely English.

There's two main reasons I keep asking for your list:

1) To see if it's even legal.
2) It's incredibly insane that you won't post it.

You already admitted to have Multi-Meltas in it. That's all I need to know that you have no clue. Clearly you're not going to post the list. You're not man enough.



Are you living in the same reality as the rest of us?

What WD issue are you even talking about?

Marines have been able to take 5-10 man squads for the last two Codexes at least, and I don't feel like digging out anything older to see what it says.



Uhhhhm. Did you really just criticize my "raeindg" skills? Seriously? Dude, there are seven letters in the word "reading" and you managed to put five of them in the wrong place.

Somehow it's my fault that you don't know how to use quotes? Are you trying to make some kind of joke?

This is a quote that makes me think you're actually an elaborately crafted internet personality, meant to drive people like me insane.



Ok, WHY. WHY DO YOU SAY THAT? You can't explain yourself, you just make unsupported statements.

This is why the rest of us are using math. We can show that the shooting of a given list should be able to do a certain thing, based on statistical averages. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Of course if you don't play it right, it certainly won't... But when we make claims, we have statistics to back it up.

You don't seem to get it: Nobody is saying math wins games. What we're saying is that math gives the basic picture of what a model can do, so game winning tactics can be developed.

Do you follow sports at all? Do you do any betting on sports? Oddsmakers will look at the stats for teams playing, and set a points spread. They examine the stats in detail, and predict the outcome. Stats don't win sporting events, but they let you predict outcomes with more accuracy than just guessing.

Your version of prediction is just "The Patriots will beat the Colts 476 to 38!" No reason why. Plus so comically, retardedly wrong, that I can't restrain myself from mocking you, yet again.



What in the holy hell is "planking" anyway? Are you trying to say "plinking?" As in shooting small caliber firearms for fun? What does that have to do with anything?

I appreciate that you're trying to explain your reasoning, but I assure you, you're talking nonsense. To amend my previous quote, what you're saying is basically "the Patriots will beat the Colts 476 to 38 because Tom Brady is a bruckfindler, raise the roof!"

Seriously, dude, what the hell? You come in here talking like you're smarter than all of us, like we're the dumb ones for not getting your point, like you're too cool to bother reading our posts. Do you not have ample evidence in your daily life that you're an idiot? I mean, I promise, you are. There's no question about it. But don't people tell you this? Your boss? Your co-workers? Do they not get irritated with how dumb you are? Or have you just lifted so many weights that they're scared to tell you, because they think you might punch them to death or something?

Dumb people are a lot easier to deal with in real life. You can do small things to mock them. I'm sure he gets away with being dumb without people getting as frustrated with him as we are right now. Probably got dumb friends, if any.

Save yourself the white hairs, Phryxis, and just give up already. He's either a sock-puppet poster designed to annoy people, or a sincere poster who's simply too dense to be worth talking to.

My turn!

 

We should know what a good, foot-slogging, marine, SAFH should look like, but then you start to say things like Multi-melta, plasma pistols and power weapons and it confuses us. Not only that, but we all thought you are playing Dark Angels since you say that you use combat squads. Then you say you are playing vanilla marines, and we really don’t have a clue.

#1. People who have played a long time rarely read White Dwarf. It is just a marketing tool for GW to sell models, and has very little useful content. Sure some long-time players read it, but that is mostly for either nostalgia, or something to do when they are on the crapper.

#2. Vanilla Marines can’t take combat squads (that is another reason why we want you to post your list). There are only 3 armies that can: Dark Angels, Blood Angels and the new Chaos codex. I think you are reading the Blood Angeles codex in WD?

Never. No one takes 10 man squads. That is why almost everyone hates the new combat squads rule. Everyone has been taking 6 man las/plas squads.

Are you sure? Again, what White Dwarf, and what page lets vanilla marines take combat squads?

 

You can’t be both footslogging, and well rounded.

You need to use the quote function when you use other peoples writing, or everyone thinks that you said it. And here is how you quote some one: Before someone’s text you put ]quote[ and at the end of what they wrote you put a ]/quote[. But instead of using ][ in the example, you need to use [] (just turn the brackets around). If you do it right, it should put a box around the text that you are quoting so we know what you are responding to, and that it is not what you said, like I have done with all of your writing.

Since you will not post your list, no one knows on average how many TMC you can kill. But if you have enough lascanons and missile launchers, I can see you possibly taking down two.

Actually it all makes sense. Tarval's marines have a multi-melta and power weapon each. Surely that trumps Nidzilla...