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Posted By IntoTheRain on 08/31/2007 6:47 AM
you mean the 16 units on the 15 unit organization chart didn't give it away?

when did nids drop to a 15 slot foc? there were 17 slots last time I checked.

Posted By skyth on 08/31/2007 6:19 AM
In other words, 'I'm a troll'

Hey, he's not a troll, he's just playing fair.  It's not sporting of us to use Math, or statistics, or common freaking sense in analyzing an army list.  What's far more important is that we take the word of a clueless blowhard who tells us that his super list really whips the gomers down home.

Please, if you can't believe irrational braggarts on the internet, who can you trust?

Devourers are utterly horrific.
They mulch me, even with 4+ cover saves.
Uuurggh.

Tarval every tournament I've run Nidzilla at has been 2000pts so this is not Nidzilla rules at 1500pts only. I've lost 1 game to super shooty Eldar and that was a minor loss at that and I was playing a friend at the tournament who had 1st place if I lost. At the time about 50% of my army was unpainted so even with 3 massacre's I wouldn't place due to being almost 18pts behind everyone to start with.

So there wasn't any point in beating my friend as it would only knock him out of the tournament. So I played friendly by deploying in a horrid fashion, and running all my genestealers across open terrain straight at his Dire Avengers. lol.

However after many tournaments I need to two hands to count how many times I've heard the words "Oh my god I'm dying to Tyranid shooting!" not counting the times I've had people simply walk away from the table turn 3, and throw in the towel.

It's far from unbeatable however the general tactics I see from the majority at tournaments simply cannot overcome the brutality of the list. It's not a this is the only way I can win as I will throw my Dark Eldar down on the table, and have taken them to many tournaments. They make Nidzilla look "friendly".

Now this year I didn't do the GT thing as I was busy volunteering at Games Days but wasn't the tournament at 1750? In the Pacific Northwest where I have been the past year or so all the tourneys have switched to this point value. And I beleive the Nids are doing great everywhere. Eldar were ruling the day at the beginning of the summer in the Seattle area, but there aren't as many nid players up there.

Where Godzillas shine is the "Take-all-comers" lists at RTTs.

It is very hard for a "balanced" list to overcome that many TMC.

There are some lists that can give it a run for it's money..Both kinds of Eldar come to mind.

And Torval, your list is not balanced. You will lose to almost any missions where you have to move for bonus victory points. .

He mentioned using combat squads so he can indeed have more 'scoring' units then the FOC normally allows.

So I'll go out on a limb and figure he's using 3 dev squads split into seperate combat squads and then a number of tacs with lascannons? Still, don't see how a shooty DA/BA list can compete with a true nidzilla list.

Maybe the nidzilla guys were idiots.

I am inclined to believe that a maine horde is a tough list, even with DA inefficiencies but it will have a jon killing zilla. It can be done if the tacticals are loaded with lascannon (or heavy bolter) combat squads and melta & fist combat squads. DA can provide the lascannon firepower, and the fists required to fight zilla. Libararian's force weapon should also deal with monsters too, but all these have got to get there.

Twelve Dev missile launchers and about four tac lascannon shooting the gunfexes, two tac heavy bolter combat squads shooting the stealers, eight fist/command squads dealing with the dakkafexes and flyrant. It can be done I think, but I would not think you could consistently beat zilla with it. Its slow, filled with expensive choices (I havent looked at the costing yet) and a smart zilla player will pick off those fist squads that are the most threatening.

Five man squads with Fists are not going to stand up long. You also have to worry about Torrent of Fire.

And the whole list is so static that a terrain-heavy board would be a nightmare.

POST.  YOUR.  GOD.  DAMN.  LIST.

POST IT.

POST THE LIST.

Good lord...

How do you make decisions in the game?  Do you base it off which models look the meanest?  Which colors are the brightest?  Your horoscope?

I'll answer for you:  You base it off the capabilities of the models.

What math does is gives us precise means to understand what a model's capabilities are.  There is still an element of chance.  There is still a need to apply the understanding math gives us...  But mathematical probability is the basis for understanding what should and should not work.

The fact that you don't understand this, and instead base all your judgements off the tiny sample set of things that have happened in your last few games, undermines your credibility as an authority on 40K tactics.

Additionally, POST YOUR LIST.

You don't bother with math, but you can see whole games playing out in your mind, and in detail, and different point levels.  I'm skeptical.  It feels like having a homeless guy tell me about the stock market.

I play 1500 point games.  It offers plenty of room for customization, but is reasonably quick to play.  I've played countless games at 1750 and 1850 as well.

I'm not trying to trap you into anything.  1500 is where I build my lists.  I think a lot of people do these days.  I didn't choose it because I think it helps my argument, I chose it because I play there, and so do a lot of other people.

Take Godzilla to 1750 or 1850...  It just means another Tyrant, more Gaunts, Raveners, etc. etc.

Regardless of the points level, why not POST YOUR LIST?

Or, instead, POST YOUR LIST?

You just dismissed math as "pointless."  You're the one who won't factor things in.  You base everything off of a few recent games you played, especially ONE, where you failed to even finish off the limited number of MCs the guy brought.  You're factoring in a single game, and only the parts you like.  That's "everything?"  No, that's "a fraction of a tiny fraction."

The rest of us are factoring in math, our own experiences, the experiences of others, game theory, tactical theory and countless other variables.

The reason I am presenting you with math is not because it proves, in and of itself, that Godzilla always wins.  I'm bringing it up because I want you to see that your perceptions are off.  The very foundations of your decisions are baseless.

For example, you play Marines.  Knowing you, you think a Lascannon is just the best thing ever.  So, ask yourself, and remember you answer:  Which is more dangerous to your Marines, the shooting of a Dakkafex, or the shooting of 3 Marines with Lascannons?

Got your answer?  You're guessing 3x Lascannons, right?

WRONG.  3 Lascannons shots at BS4 will kill 1.67 Marines.  And that's in the open.  In 5+ cover, it's only 1.1.  And the Dakkafex will kill 2 every turn, cover or not.

That's my point.  I'm not saying that math tells us everything about winning the game.  It tells us the basic stuff that we then expand upon to win the game.  You don't even get the BASICS.  You're going to beat one of the most broken, unbeatable lists in the game, and you don't even understand the basic capabilities of the list?

No.  You're not.

POST YOUR LIST.

You're scared to post your list because I'll "use math" on it?  What is math to you?  Some barely understood magic power?  Am I a Jedi because I understand very basic principles of probability?

Post the list.  I'm willing to bet I won't even need math to pick it apart.  Something tells me you don't even know the rules well enough to build a legal list.

Post the list.

I've tried to be nice to this point, but you're impossible.  You won't post your list, you won't listen, you won't produce a cogent response.  I know you're not going to get any smarter in the immediate future, but the LEAST you could do is post your list.

Do you think it's some sort of magic formula that will allow everyone else to be as fictionally awesome as you are?

Is it the formula for Coke?

Just post the goddamn list, dude.

In reading Phryxis's response, I almost fell out of my chair laughing 5 times.

 

My favorite line was about probability being a Jedi mind trick.  Epic.

Posted By Phryxis on 08/31/2007 5:16 PM

I am just saying that I dont think this list could handle my list.

POST.  YOUR.  GOD.  DAMN.  LIST.

POST IT.

POST THE LIST.

Additionally, POST YOUR LIST.

Regardless of the points level, why not POST YOUR LIST?

Or, instead, POST YOUR LIST?

POST YOUR LIST.

Post the list.  I'm willing to bet I won't even need math to pick it apart. 

Post the list.

I know you're not going to get any smarter in the immediate future, but the LEAST you could do is post your list.

Just post the goddamn list, dude.

So, what are you trying to say?

I refuse to read any more of this thread because somebody will use math on me.

This thread is great.  It gets me thru a dull day at work.


PS:  Tarval, Post your list.

Posted By Polonius on 08/31/2007 8:00 PM
I refuse to read any more of this thread because somebody will use math on me.

Oh noes! The chance of rolling a 6 can't be 1/6! MY BRAIN HURTS. Stop using probabilities!

Mate, what is so wrong with saying the chance of flipping heads is 1/2? I don't see anything wrong with that...

Admittedly, the math in this thread sucks, but that doesn't mean it can't be good.

Mathhammer - The guide

PS:  Tarval, Post your list.

After a long sucky evening of procrastination and bursts of work, this has cheered me up.
Cheers lads.
ps. post the list mate.

Funny how everybody wants me to post my list. Post post post, I have not lost a game and am not saying my list is just the zilla killer of all time. I am just saying after looking what the list has to offer, I dont see it stacking up at 1850. Now a few post back, talked about how 1500 was more of a game for the zilla because of what you could fit in at that point lvl.  He has a good point and I pointed that out as well. You might be doing great at 1500 but at 1850 it a new area of play. 

I live in Texas and I have always played 1750 or higher and that has been that way for years. Your list functions off your Tyrant and your gen. With out that you list will fail once hth hits your wall of MC.  You talk as if I will have two marines dead a turn like it a common thing. First you have to hit me, you have a good chance to wound me but you could still fail. Then I get a 3plus save, if not a cover save from your few AP weapon you do have.

17 slots in the FOC btw for the person that posted only 15.

I have played a lot of games and most of the people that I play after the game talk about the 3plus save. Man you just have to man saves.

What is wrong with saying that I know that my army can stand up to a GoDZilla list.  I have not faced it before and you have not face my list before. You might of played somebody that has something like my list, but you did not play the general behind the list.

Lascannon are the win, thou I only have four of them in my army. Multi Melta, Plasma guns, Plasma Pistols, missle launchers, power fist, power weapon. I have a all kinds of gear to take apart another army. 

 

Thou I did like the guy that post about reading up on this at work. I myself enjoy reading up on it as well, thou I did not have a lot of time tonight to post anything. Will talk some more. 

 

KEEP THE TOPIC ROLLING

Okay, now you're just out to annoy Phryxis.
As long as it results in more comedy gold I don't mind, but I don't think you realise that his numbers (2 dead marines) factor in the chance to hit and wound, and your save. It's an average number, sometimes it will be higher, sometimes lower, but it should hover around 2.

The shooty DA infantry horde has a chance against Godzilla Nids.

They have a lot of high strength/high AP weapons in 5 man squads that can sit back ans shoot. Also they have a lot of plasma guns that can shoot at the little bugs and then plasma the dakkafexs after they are dead.


There are a few things going for the Nids though.

#1. Terrain. It will have a huge effect on the game. The more terrain, the higher the chance of the Nids winning.


#2. Nids can move and shoot, the Marines really can't. So the Nids can move to good shooting positions where they can unleash their full shooting potential, while limiting the amount of return fire,

#3. The high point limits mean Ravenors. They will hit the lines in a hurry, block LOS, and cause havoc to your gun line.


Of course when Torval starts to talk about Plasma pistols, Multi-meltas and power weapons he starts to lose me.

Yeah, tarval clearly is a noob.

<table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Dakkafex vs marines</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code"># success - P(# success)
0               - 0.108
1               - 0.277
2               - 0.311
3               - 0.200
4               - 0.0802
5               - 0.0206
6               - 0.00331
7               - 0.000303
8               - 0.0000122</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Phryxis, don't feed the troll.

I am ok with people having radically different opinions, and going against the flow. Hell I do so myself, its cool so long as you post all the information to back up your words. But if you won't defend your arguement it has no value. Tarval has nothing to say, ignore all future comments from him on this thread.

Due to the fact that I am half Jedi on my uncle's room mate's side, my chances of rolling a six are one in 1.67 in or out of cover, unless pathfinders are shooting. Then I will always roll a 3 or a 7 (on one die). But your chance to fail your 2+ save is 16 in 96.

Orion

P.S. Tyranids don't need math, it doesn't break down into biomass. All that's left after they are done with a planet is a lifeless, airless rock and math. And maybe some killer space marine lists.

P.P.S.  Thou and though are very different words.  Thou is the medieval vulgar argot  way of saying you or you all.  It goes with thee, thou, thine, (you, you all, and yours)

I really dont think you have faced 82 marines. Guy that I last played with nids almost finished me off. Thou I got the crushing victory because I have played too long. I keep planking his carni, and put some wounds into another MC. He only had a flyer over half str to take one board edge. 500 x3 plus what I killed vs what he killed got me the crushing victory.  Once again, after the game David talked about the three plus save. Its not that I get a three plus save, its that I get 82 of them to work with. Do you really have the fire power to burn down 17 units off the FOC? You talk as if you are going to kill two a turn, 3x2x6=36 marine dead in 6 turns. What about the other 46 marine that you have yet to talk about. Venom cannon take two a turn if you get lucky so will go 50/50 1. that is another 24 marines dead if your lucky, minus saves inv. 22 marine still on the board for you to kill with pie plates that give saves. I'll give you half that, 12 marines still on the board at turn 6. Your hth, I will give you nill because it will only cost you more to seek out hth then to just sit around and do nothing. If you want your hth, I get your Tyrant and your gen with ease. You get 10 marines if your lucky, that is if you dont get a bad roll for moving in cover like this one guy did with his gen. Only to have that unit burned down because he rolled the famous one, thinking he was going to get a better roll.

You kill two, I still have three in the squad. This is going to force you to focus your fire to burn down the problem in that squad. You only have so many units to shoot with, and if you fail to finish you task. That unit is going to return fire again the following turn.

  This number does not even factor in how much damage I will put out.  50 bolter shoot, 15 percent, about 7 wounds a turn? You list shows that you are taking 3plus on three or even six of your MC. Question is if you run all your MC at 2plus save or just a few.  I am thinking you dont because you are looking to branch out with other item on the FOC. So, roll seven dice and see how many one's and two's you get ok. Hell, you just might see a MC die to bolter fire? BTW two plus save did not save the Hive Tyrant in hth when he assault me.

If I did post a list you would only come back with oh oh, this list owns that list.  I am just saying that I think I have a really good chance of taking this list apart. The list is new like most posters posted and said.  People dont always bring what they think they will need. When people face my list, just like yours, they are ahh shocked. They just dont have what is needed to take the list apart.

Thou a lot of you are going hard core with the smack talk. My list has not lost a game, your's has! Let work with numbers ok. 0 lost games, 3-6-9 something what ever lost games.  There are some list out there, that have cause you to lose a game?  There are only a few list out there left for me to play a few time to cause me to have a lose.

I am bringing 87 men to the Arb Boys and maybe I will get lucky to see a Zilla GoD list, maybe?   If I do, I am going to pull out the old 1850 and give it a smack down.

Walking in a six turn game is not a problem for my army gang. I have done it to many times because I dont run a heavy weapon in every squad. Not ever heavy weapon will have something to shoot at once it has finished its task.

 

Will chat some more gang, enjoyed the post thus far. Killed some time at work as well, which I do enjoy. Thanks

 

Funny how you still won't. And in this case, by "funny" I mean "incredibly sad."



Yet again, something you wouldn't say if you knew anything about the list. The core of the list is are the three Elite Dakkafexes. They're an incredible deal for the points, capable of huge volumes of fire, capable of shrugging off huge volumes of fire. The other models change, but these three guys do not.

Some lists don't even use Genestealers. I wouldn't if I had the Gaunts painted.



There's nothing wrong with saying it.

The problem is when you can't explain why. The problem is that when you try to explain why, you demonstrate a total lack of understanding of the Godzilla list, and of the fundamental concepts of the game. The problem is that you brag on your list for a dozen posts, but refuse repeatedly to post it.



AHAHAHAHAHA.

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAH...

AHAHhhahahahAHAHHA....

Good GOD, dude. Good god.

You literally don't even know what probabilities are, do you? When I tell you that a Dakkafex kills 2 Marines per turn, you think I'm like you, and just speak in blurted, baseless assertions. I just picked 2, and I think that's what feels right.

Dude, NO. The statistical average Marines killed by a round of shooting from a Dakkafex is 2. I didn't make that up, that's how it works. Do you understand what an average is?



Holy CRAP dude. You have Multi-Meltas in your list? You are, by definition, clueless. Multi-Meltas are junk. They're not a weapon that any seriously powergamed army will field on infantry.

No wonder you don't want to post your list, it's a joke.



You really don't listen, do you?

I've PLAYED 82 marines. The army I have the most experience with is Marines, shooty biased, infantry heavy. I play your army, and I'm willing to bet I play it better than you do, with your Multi-Meltas and your 16 squads.



Yeah, 36 dead marines out of 342 points. You're talking about less than a quarter of the points in the list. There's still 1158 points worth of other models also killing on your Marines.

Be honest. Are you slowed?



What? Now you're going to use math? Good, young Jedi, give into the hate. Give in to the darkside of thinking. Give in to logic and fact, instead of baseless speculation and stupidity.

Let me show you how the dark side works.

50 bolter shots... BS4 means 2/3 hit, so you get 33.3 hits. Each hit has a 1/6 chance to wound a T6 Carnifex. So you get 5.56 wounds. Each wound has a 1/3 chance to get past the 3+ save. End result is 1.85 wounds.

So, no, not 7 wounds per turn.

But 7 is a number, instead of a base, animal emotion, so you're already expanding your tactical vocabularly. Bravo!



So what? It's not like you listen to anything anybody says, or care what's being explained to you. I'd just like to have a nice laugh at your idea of an unbeatable list.



Bro, I tried to start out polite. I tried. You're being incredibly stubborn, you brag endlessly on the power of your list, you absolutely REFUSE to read what's being posted by anybody else. In the end, it's all so disrespectful I just have to return the favor.

Post your list. Stop acting like we're the ones who can't be trusted to respond fairly. Have you not noticed that EVERYONE in this thread thinks you're a moron? Are we all stupid? Are we all being unfair to your list? Do you know how statistically unlikely it is that we're ALL messed up in the head, and you're the only one that's not?

Oh, wait, of course not. You don't even know what statistics are.

BTW, is anybody else reeling at the irony that Ed Maule started this thread, and now isn't here to see this guy so totally failing to understand the SAFH Marine concepts that Ed himself helped develop?

Um, just because I would like to further my own knowledge, what is SAFH? I looked around for a glossery or something and couldn't find one for the life of me. I don't mean to hijack the thread, I'd just like to know.

Posted By onlainari on 08/31/2007 11:02 PM
Yeah, tarval clearly is a noob.

<table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Dakkafex vs marines</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code"># success - P(# success)
0               - 0.108
1               - 0.277
2               - 0.311
3               - 0.200
4               - 0.0802
5               - 0.0206
6               - 0.00331
7               - 0.000303
8               - 0.0000122</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Hahaha, that is pretty ironic phryxis. At least I think it is. I'm a stats person not a language person.

SAFH is shooting army from hell.

Lets do the 50 bolter shots, to compare with the dakkafex I posted up there. Recall that just because you kill 2 on average, does not mean you will kill 2. In fact a dakkafex has 10.8% chance of doing nothing. It is more useful to know the distribution than the average.

<table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Marines vs dakkafex
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code"># success - P(# success)
0               - 0.152
1               - 0.291
2               - 0.275
3               - 0.169
4               - 0.0764
5               - 0.0270
6               - 0.00779
7+            - 0.00236
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Hahaha tarval said around 7 wounds. What a moron. The chance of between 7 and 50 wounds is one in 424!

Admittedly one in 424 happens occasionally (everyone has horror stories), but good luck trying!

It's WAY more useful. It's also much more time consuming to calcuate, and much more difficult to represent.

I should probably get off my ass and remember the combinatorics classes I took, then write myself a little application to generate a simple distribution notation.

What I think would be nice would be to have three values, the average, then the high and low results that define the range in which, say, 80% of the results will fall. Or 90%, or whatever makes sense.

Not sure exactly how to calcuate that, short of brute force. Any ideas onlainari?

Okay, I just want to talk about tailoring lists against a list that you post versus posting a list to illustrate your point. For instance I haven't been too troubled by Zillla lists at tourneys as here is a list I actually took and used at a tourney. I change between each tourney to keep my regular opponents on their toes but this did face a zilla list and I acheived a solid victory and all bonus points (getting a massacre would have been very hard)

My list

Avatar

Farseer with doom and mindwar (one per turn only)

2 x 10 Dire Avengers with exarch/2 shuricats/Bladestorm

4 x 5 pathfinders

10 Harlequins/shadowseer/all with harlie kisses

10 Fire dragons w/exarch/dragons breath/crack shot in Waveserpent with TL Brightlance/vectored engines/spiritstones

Wraithlord with 2 flamers/Brightlance

3 Deathspinner artillery batteries

Total 1848 points

The opponent had 6 fexes, 2 flying Hive tyrant, 2 squads of genies, and all the rest spine gaunts.

In turn one I killed one of the tyrants with the rangers, caused 4 wounds that were AP1. This took three of my ranger squads and was pretty lucky. The other squad wounded one elite fex (it failed its regualr 3+ save) The d spinners hit on target and removed most of one swarm of gaunts. wave serpent hid, wraithlord hit with brightlance but fex regenerated in its turn. Wraithlord took one wound in return. Nid player charged forward and got pretty close to range.

Turn two rangers inflicted 2 wounds ona dakka fex and killed the elite fex. One squad eaten by a fex. One genestealer squad nailed by d spinner killing 6 of 10. Wraithlord put another wound on the dakka fex but took another wound in return. Injured unit of gaunts and one additonal unit blade stormed out of existence (doom used on uninjured squad to ensure death) One unit of DA wiped out by remaining gaunt units. Avatar charged by winged tyrant, tyrant took 2 wounds avatar 1.

Turn three. Dragons moved to put heavy flamer on unit of gaunts and wiped out all but three. Wraithlord with only one wound flamed and locked last squad of gaunts in CC. Rangers finish off wounded dakka fex, one more squad eaten. Harlies moved up to charge genies, missed distance, charged in return, in simo combat all 8 genies dies to 6 harlies (made some great saves, mostly luck) remaining 2 genies fled and wiped out harlies moved to take out elite fex in next turn. Avatar took one more wound but killed tyrant. D spinners missed every thing. dragons charged by gaunts lost one but wiped out gaunts.

Turn four d spinners drop on dakka fex, no wounds. Dragons able to kill one elite fex, avatar shot to death by dakka fexes, harlies kill other elite fex but killed in turn by four remaining genies from first squad (but do kill two). Wraithlord wins combat but gaunts stay with snake eyes. ranger and serpent able two wound one dakka fex four times but it regens 3 of them! Farseer decides the demons in the warp are cool and blows his own head off. DA take one objective, FD take additional objective opponent moved in wrong direction to kill avatar and forgot to take 3rd objective with dakka fex.

End of game due to time. Rangers performed above average, harlies saved above average, farseer commited suicide and avatar just about average performance. Denied most of the spine fist shooting to the nid player which could easily have killed my harlies or even my avatar. He charged forward a little too much (he admitted he was new to spine gaunts as he usually took hormies).

Now, many of the nid players here will probably see things wrong in my opponents tactics, targeting, list etc. but this shows how I am prepared for a Zilla list with my regular balanced list, also this list won against necrons and ultramarines in the same day. And this was the last 1850 tourney I played in. Since then they have all been 1750.

BUT the important point is I have posted my list, shown how it worked in a game and I am not afraid to look at math or what if scenarios. On paper and post boards everyone wins. In reality it is different but you won't learn how to play your army better unless you field the what ifs. Then when you see something in real life you have at least contemplated the scenario and don't need to panic.

Orion