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How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice?  [RSS] Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit
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How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice?
Split Evenly between Chance, Skill and Army
Mostly Chance
Mostly Skill
Mostly Army
No opinion
Other (write in)

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Made in us
Lone Wolf Sentinel Pilot






I think there's a good chance these percent breakdowns and overall opinions may shift once people are settled into the new edition, so it may be worth rebooting this poll after 8th hits.

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Made in gb
Sneaky Kommando






How can it be anything other then army when it's this unbalanced

 
   
Made in gb
Renegade Kan Killin Orks






Northern Ireland

Me and a friend played an experiment. We each had exactly the same Space Marines army.

Captain, with command squad.
10 Scouts
Tactical Squad
Rhino
Razorback
Devastator Squad
Venerable Dreadnought

And whatdya know, it came out a (really enjoyable) draw.
Now most surprising perhaps is that I'm no 40k wizz and my friend is a seasoned tournament gamer. So in all honesty he should've beat me. Makes me think more than anything else that army is all it comes down to.


Here's a shot from the gripping conclusion of that game. It came down to an all out slobberknocker between Captains and dreadnoughts!

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/06/04 19:58:42


   
Made in gb
Shas'ui with Bonding Knife






 theCrowe wrote:
Me and a friend played an experiment. We each had exactly the same Space Marines army.

Captain, with command squad.
10 Scouts
Tactical Squad
Rhino
Razorback
Devastator Squad
Venerable Dreadnought

And whatdya know, it came out a (really enjoyable) draw.
Now most surprising perhaps is that I'm no 40k wizz and my friend is a seasoned tournament gamer. So in all honesty he should've beat me. Makes me think more than anything else that army is all it comes down to.


Here's a shot from the gripping conclusion of that game. It came down to an all out slobberknocker between Captains and dreadnoughts!



So you removed the army part of this, so it came down to skill and luck. And no matter how skilled you are, nothing can help you if you roll nothing but 1s

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Made in gb
Renegade Kan Killin Orks






Northern Ireland

True enough I suppose.

My point may be that where I would've expected a player who knows the game inside out to out play me with the same army, he didn't.

But you're right, Maybe he just rolled lots more 1s than me and luck balanced skill to result in a draw.

   
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Sure Space Wolves Land Raider Pilot






I picked skill, but I think that includes army building and ensuring you have a list that can take all comers. I've seen top tier armies get destroyed by low tier armies because they lacked any knowledge or skill when it came to selecting their models/units. The really good players know the armies they play and put their models in a position to win the upper hand. Occasionally the dice will turn on you, but generally the odds will be in favor of those who put themselves in a good position.
   
Made in us
Stubborn Prosecutor





I feel like chance has the biggest contribution, followed by army construction. Even with a ton of terrain on the field and a 6x4' table, most units can shoot each other most of the game. It keeps with the epic feeling GW pitches, but there really isn't a lot of tactics involved.

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The Last Chancer Who Survived




United Kingdom

Oh lord, when will this thread die?

The poll was made in 2012. It's just wildly invalid now...

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/14 15:29:13


 
   
Made in us
Excellent Exalted Champion of Chaos





Army.

I know way too many people that roll others with strong armies but when given something not OP they struggle to win at all.

If skill mattered, then those people should be winning with weak armies as well.

But thats almost never the case.
   
Made in de
Spawn of Chaos




Skill is importent and the most skill is shown in the movement phase where you dont need chance(besides advance rolls).
A good list is also importent because your units have a synergy potential.
Chance is important as feth just look at these meele heavy armies if they dont pass the 2D6 chargeroll to start the fightphase they will get destroyed in their opponents turn.

I mean GW tried to reduce the importance of chance by all these reroll bubbles and stragemes, but otherwise this fact shows how important chance is.
Its still a dice game.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/07/26 15:10:33


12000p
 
   
Made in be
Beast of Nurgle




Belgium

In the end it all comes down to the rolling of dice. All one can do to up your chances of winning is min-max the amount of dice being rolled and the needed results on said dice. So I'd say mostly army list since the faction and list determines most of these.

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Made in gb
Badass "Sister Sin"






Mostly skill.

You can have a well hard army. But if you don't understand what makes it hard, you'll struggle. If you forget to go for objectives, or don't know how to do that effectively, you'll struggle.

You can have it's perks explained to you, but until you're on the field of battle, with random terrain, making it actually work isn't as easy as Netlisting might suggest.

Sure, a strong list can boost a fairly middling player somewhat - but it won't provide someone devoid of skill with a great many wins.

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Made in us
Tzeentch Aspiring Sorcerer Riding a Disc





Orem, Utah

I'm not quite sure what the survey means when it says "army."

Is it your choice of faction, or the actual army build that you're using?

Choice of faction will always be a factor, so long as GW can't get them all totally balanced, but your choices of what to bring within that faction has always been the greatest predictor of victory in 40k.

The intense strategic time is usually spent building army lists- and trying to squeeze every last drop of efficacy out of it. Once the troops hit the table, the game is a fairly simple practice of doing what you came to do- and good target priority.

 
   
Made in us
Beast of Nurgle





Army list has a lot to do with it but luck will ruin or save you without much rhyme or reason.

After that there are decisions you make during the game that can win or lose you the game.



Armies
Death Guard - 2017
Dark Eldar - 2015
Space Wolves - 2009
Orks - 2006 (sold)
 
   
Made in ca
Grumpy Longbeard





Canada

I would be curious to know the split between people who play only 40k/GW and people familiar witb other games in tbe polls.

I'd bet most of the players who voted for even mix or skill are 40k only or mostly players.

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Dwarfs

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Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut



Utah

Some armies are at the mercy of high variance.

Some armies have a very high skill ceiling.

So army choice has a significant impact, with player skill having the most impact.
   
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Keeper of the Flame





Monticello, IN

This edition? Definitely army.

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For 4-6th WFB, 2-5th 40k, and similar timeframe gaming

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Made in us
Tzeentch Aspiring Sorcerer Riding a Disc





Orem, Utah

If army choice means "What faction do you play" then I think that is a factor, but not the biggest one.

Army Building is the most decisive factor in 40k, and has been for a long time.

Faction choice will decide a game between evenly skilled opponents, and can give a decent handicap to a less skilled player making a list.

Luck factors in mostly when you have evenly matched lists (whether or not the players are evenly matched).

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/09/11 17:12:06


 
   
Made in us
Squishy Squig





terra

Chose mostly army, because the models are probably the most important part of the game. second is luck. skill/experience varies greatly, but the former two options are better, because it determines the potential outcome, while the latter option of knowing how things work is advantageous, it doesn't gurantee victory, unlike army composition and luck of the dice roll.

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Stormin' Stompa






Ottawa, ON

Would retention of rules count as skill? I have found that whoever can remember the most bonuses, buffs and stratagems tends to win the most games.

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Made in us
Never Forget Isstvan!






Increasingly in high level tournament play it comes down to dice rolls.

Random matchups, saves, and advance rolls.

In my most recent tournament I was matched up with the overall winner in the last game and it could have gone either way but the dice were just not doing me any favors.

I outplayed him on primaries and he beat me on secondaries. Biggest swings were that my telemon charged guillamen and did no damage, which allowed him to survive through the game on 3 wounds later on (and he was a WWSWF model), his techmarine made a massive 6" advance to pop onto a point on turn 4, that same techmarine survived my callidius grav tank shooting at him by a combination of me only getting 4 wounds on him and him making 3/4 5+ saves, and me failing a charge with my aquilon terminators in turn 2 againgst his leviathan dreadnought, which would have stopped said dread from killing my tanks off.


The final score was 56-63, so it easily could have been my win. Dice just didnt like me.

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Grumpy Longbeard





washington state USA

In my experience prior to 8th ed it was half and half because units had defined role as everything could not hurt everything. a 2 shot 24" range assault melta gun as an example(good strength super good AP and damage) is just as good at killing infantry/heavy infantry as it is vehicles and monsterous creatures in 9th. where as before a las cannon was good at killing or damaging a vehicle with a single shot but was less effective against hordes/monsterous creatures and also could not move effectively. there were hard trade-offs

With the addition of stratagems (loads of them for every faction) the armies almost play on autopilot nearly guaranteeing hits and damage. making it more about what you bring and less about how you use it on the table.



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Made in it
Gargantuan Gargant




Italy

People often confuse "weak" armies with non optimized lists. Skills and luck actually matters a lot.

The best list possible in the hand of an unexperienced player is not going anywere against an optimized list played buy someone who can actually play his army, not matter what tournament results say about his faction.

A non optimized SM list can lose badly against anyone. And a well optimized list of a "bottom" or "mid" tier army can definitely win against anyone if it has skills + luck on its side.

Of course if both players are equally experienced and roll close to averages list building is the most important factor to predict the outcome of the match, but still there's no guaranteed victory for the faction with better win rates.


 
   
Made in pl
Regular Dakkanaut




WH40K is very decision-light. It's what I call a "purchase+luck" type of game, akin to MTG.

Very popular type because people generally like the idea that they can buy something that requires a lot of effort otherwise (things that are supposed to make you fit without diet or exercise say hello ) and the promise of getting lucky now and again is less offputting than the prospect of hard work at getting better.

Cool world and miniatures, but game ? Just no :]
   
Made in us
Tzeentch Aspiring Sorcerer Riding a Disc





Orem, Utah

Generally, the most skill based portion of 40k is in list building. The most successful players I've seen spend quite a lot of time min-maxing their army lists.

Once things hit the table, there are some target priority questions, but otherwise you mostly just do what your force was built to do. Throughout most editions of the game, I have not found myself making lots of crucial choices in the heat of battle, aside from identifying which enemy units are the most dangerous to your force (this can be contrasted against Blood Bowl, where making decisions on your turn is usually the deciding factor).

The luck element comes up, but it is seldom the deciding factor unless you get unlucky at a crucible moment.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/10/30 15:56:00


 
   
Made in de
Regular Dakkanaut




Berlin

I think we agree on:
If two of those are equal the third one will decide the outcome.

IMHO:
Defining a universal numeric weight is impossible.
For one there is no way to measure relative skill, luck or army quality.
And there are many more deciding factors (add table size, terrain, mission, player mentality and I don't know what) which define the outcome.

You can design a battle in which all that counts is getting the first turn and not rolling that bad in the first turn.
In a game of two tournament players who both try to minimise the effect of luck it will have much less effect as in a game where one or both sides gamble.

So the relative value of a factor is "meta" dependent.

As an absolute value I think that "skill" is the most useful of those "qualities" to have, because it is the factor you can rely on most.
And depending on if the players create their army in contrast to give them an army to cope with "Army" and "Skill" are not independent.

On the other hand didn't Napoleon say:
I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?
   
Made in us
Blessed Living Saint




On the Internet

Warhammer Weekly recently did a deep dive on skill in AoS and I feel we can split it up largely the same.

If you win less than two games at a 5 round tournament then you likely fall into the category of neither skill nor the codex determining your wins and it being more luck based.

If you go 2/3 or 3/2 then your skill is less important than the power of the army you have and the power of the army you face. Most of the time ths power boost from the codex will only mean 1 extra win for every 10-20 games but it will be influnced by the book.

If you go 4/1 or better than your skill matters more than the codex in all but games against people of equal skill level where that marginal win boost will increase your odds of winning, but at that level it's likely not a free win for any set number of games.

Now RnG can screw you over at any level but those 4/1 players are also people who push the RnG the furthest in their favor whenever they have to roll dice meaning even their bad games will be better than the majority of the player base.

Arguably because those 4/1 and better players are so skill and game knowledge dependent it should be worth looking at win rates with and without them included in the numbers to get an idea of both how an army is doing overall and how it performs for the average player.
   
Made in at
Discriminating Warrior





Austria

From my personal experience from AoS in the past:

I just wanted to try it and found a Stormcast list that was intresting with the guy playing it claiming he usually wins 4/1, 5/0 on tournaments
because it was a different concept I was not the only one trying it and while I was building and painting, others already played tournaments but everyone struggled to get past the 3/2 victories

so it was claimed to be the superior skill and experience needed to get this list working

until some of his battle reports raised a question on how he used some of the rules with the result that he played the main unit wrong (and the rules did not allow what he is doing)
while he claimed that we all do not understand how the rules work and just don't have the skill, it was FAQed shortly after with him going mad because with this change the list is unplayable and it is impossible to get 4/1 in tournaments with Stormcast


So for me it stays, the faction choice and army list is still the most important factor and than there is skill as the even the most skilled player will struggle with the bad factions/lists

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Made in us
Omnipotent Necron Overlord






 ClockworkZion wrote:
Warhammer Weekly recently did a deep dive on skill in AoS and I feel we can split it up largely the same.

If you win less than two games at a 5 round tournament then you likely fall into the category of neither skill nor the codex determining your wins and it being more luck based.

If you go 2/3 or 3/2 then your skill is less important than the power of the army you have and the power of the army you face. Most of the time ths power boost from the codex will only mean 1 extra win for every 10-20 games but it will be influnced by the book.

If you go 4/1 or better than your skill matters more than the codex in all but games against people of equal skill level where that marginal win boost will increase your odds of winning, but at that level it's likely not a free win for any set number of games.

Now RnG can screw you over at any level but those 4/1 players are also people who push the RnG the furthest in their favor whenever they have to roll dice meaning even their bad games will be better than the majority of the player base.

Arguably because those 4/1 and better players are so skill and game knowledge dependent it should be worth looking at win rates with and without them included in the numbers to get an idea of both how an army is doing overall and how it performs for the average player.

This is BS. Mostly the armies with a strong power level advance. So essentially the "army" factor is nullified (to some degree) and at some point it is going to come down to making the right decisions and just dice. Sometimes youll make the right decisions and and youll roll above average and sometimes below average. Sometimes the only way you can win is to get lucky...it is a skill to know that I suppose.

All these things are important.
Army is certainly the most important factor though. Then skill then luck.

Army>Skill>Luck

I will say though. Good luck trumps everything - it is just unpredictable. However - it is the main reason why invune saves being all over the place is a real problem. A 5++ shouldn't be made at a 90% rate but the number of times it's lost me games is astounding. However if you break it down into a % of games won or lost by army/skill/luck - it would certainly hold true to that pattern.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/06/15 20:01:10


 
   
Made in au
Dakka Veteran




I would say a good player reduces chance as much as possible, an amazing player can pilot underperforming armies. We've seen that with a few Tau tournament wins even recently.
   
 
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