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2012/08/10 15:12:29
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
Yeah, a lot of armies can take a Doomseer with Runes and a cheap troop, park them in area terrain >6" from your own guys and get psychic defense and Doom for pretty cheap.
Doomseer with Runes - 95
5 Rangers - 95
Look on your opponent's face when you Doom one of his squads and then wreck face with your Nob Bikers? Priceless.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Might even be a time when Pathfinders are worth it, to get the added cover protection for the Farseer.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 15:13:15
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2012/08/10 15:13:34
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
Ricter wrote:How did your doomscythe get such an extreme angle in turn 2?
It looks like it came in at an angle hugging Jy2's board edge. Easy enough to pull off even without using your 90 degree turn.
Doesn't the model have to be completely off the board going back 36"?
The flyer will have to start off the board edge, but I believe it can move anywhere from 18" to 36" when zooming. Anyway, it would look like this in practice:
Red line being the Scythe's movement. Hope that answers your question?
Lovin the diagram.
If the red line in the diagram is 36" long the necron player would have cheated. It would probably need to be no more than 30" to be a legal move but this depends on the angle. I think this is what the person asking originally meant.
Something to keep in mind.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/08/10 15:17:00
2012/08/10 15:39:40
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
Aleinikov wrote:This is an example of what not knowing the enemy does for you. Did the SM Biker player have any idea how a Doom Scythe works? The way he lined up the bikers is almost as good as conceeding the game.
I had actually played another Necron army two rounds before that had two Doom Sythes. It was also Hammer and Anvil. In that game I had stayed back and when his first Doom Sythe Came in I was a little better spaced and I made an appropriate amount of jink saves. So the initial damage wasn't so bad. Then I just hammered it with MultiMeltas and plasmas.
The problem this game was there were 4 fliers instead of 2, and I was being threatened with the wraiths wheras the last game a bunch of warriors just hung in the back field.
In both games playing Hammer and Anvil I unfortunately have too many bases and not enough room. I'm trying to stay right at 23" so I can shoot buy not likely get charged. But there isn't enough realestate in this deployment to get spaced out like you can in dawn of war. Believe me everything about this mission had me cringing (single objective, hammer and anvil, necron flyers).
So I felt like I had to take the risk to try to down those wraith or get the barge to as least get first blood.
Alas that didn't happen, he got first blood, and I would eventually lose the game by one point (if I recall). My only loss of the tournament (I tied one other game).
And jy2 is spot on when he said it was this was the list I wanted to play least. I knew I would be on table two day two and have to play either mech GK, mech BA, or Necron Fliers. All the guys are great generals but GARGH fliers of doom was the last thing I wanted to see for this particular game. If it had been just about any other mission and deployment I felt like I could have had a chance.
So I'll admit I was a bit flummoxed as to what to do to pull out a win this game.
But certainly hats off to jy2 for a great tournament win!
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 15:43:32
Aleinikov wrote:This is an example of what not knowing the enemy does for you. Did the SM Biker player have any idea how a Doom Scythe works? The way he lined up the bikers is almost as good as conceeding the game.
I had actually played another Necron army two rounds before that had two Doom Sythes. It was also Hammer and Anvil. In that game I had stayed back and when his first Doom Sythe Came in I was a little better spaced and I made an appropriate amount of jink saves. So the initial damage wasn't so bad. Then I just hammered it with MultiMeltas and plasmas.
The problem this game was there were 4 fliers instead of 2, and I was being threatened with the wraiths wheras the last game a bunch of warriors just hung in the back field.
In both games playing Hammer and Anvil I unfortunately have too many bases and not enough room. I'm trying to stay right at 23" so I can shoot buy not likely get charged. But there isn't enough realestate in this deployment to get spaced out like you can in dawn of war. Believe me everything about this mission had me cringing (single objective, hammer and anvil, necron flyers).
So I felt like I had to take the risk to try to down those wraith or get the barge to as least get first blood.
Alas that didn't happen, he got first blood, and I would eventually lose the game by one point (if I recall). My only loss of the tournament (I tied one other game).
And jy2 is spot on when he said it was this was the list I wanted to play least. I knew I would be on table two day two and have to play either mech GK, mech BA, or Necron Fliers. All the guys are great generals but GARGH fliers of doom was the last thing I wanted to see for this particular game. If it had been just about any other mission and deployment I felt like I could have had a chance.
So I'll admit I was a bit flummoxed as to what to do to pull out a win this game.
But certainly hats off to jy2 for a great tournament win!
Why didn't you mass assault turn 2? You would have been safe when his fliers arrive and can always combat tactics out later to fry his troops when they arrive. Wraiths are not that good in combat especially after doom shooting one unit to nothing. Either that or hang back on your edge like jy2 apparently did all tournament lol. Hey come get my wraiths.... to bad come get my bikes. His four fliers would not be able to take down that whole mob in just few turns. They fly on max and hope to get a few hits with only tesla (out range the death ray.) then boost under the fliers toward the center so he can't hit you and have to fly into ongoing reserves. That would limit them to what, one or two good turns of fire. I also could not figure out why you would start a bike squad in terrain on your objective.
The Multi assault probably would have been the best idea. I did not thinking haning back for long would fix my problem. I figured turn 2 he would move fliers up and scoot the wraiths up, then turn 3 there would be nowhere for me to run.
But yes the multi assault would have been the best call. Even if I wasn't killing much in the way of wraiths I probably would have stuck in combat and been pretty safe from fliers for a turn. Then I could try to combat tactics out of assault if I wanted on my turn for another round of shooting and charging.
I have been mauled by wraiths before (not with my bikes) and I think my head was already spinning about pulling up what I felt was a bad matchup for the scenario.
Good call! I will definitely take not of this for future games!
Captn Dees wrote:The Multi assault probably would have been the best idea. I did not thinking haning back for long would fix my problem. I figured turn 2 he would move fliers up and scoot the wraiths up, then turn 3 there would be nowhere for me to run.
But yes the multi assault would have been the best call. Even if I wasn't killing much in the way of wraiths I probably would have stuck in combat and been pretty safe from fliers for a turn. Then I could try to combat tactics out of assault if I wanted on my turn for another round of shooting and charging.
I have been mauled by wraiths before (not with my bikes) and I think my head was already spinning about pulling up what I felt was a bad matchup for the scenario.
Good call! I will definitely take not of this for future games!
No problem mate, I make the same mistake myself. It's hard paying with different units against an old adversary and not looking at the situation with tinted vision. Wraiths definitely took a hit this edition though (all assaulty units actually) and being able to shoot his numbers down a couple before charging would have ensured your safety. Especially dooming his warlords unit. Just break off the farseer, doom the destroyer wraiths and maybe try to charge his A barge or join the fray. This way you don't have to risk the jet bikes early on. Remember t5hat seer is expendable
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 16:42:45
Red Corsair wrote:I also could not figure out why you would start a bike squad in terrain on your objective.
I can understand hiding them; he absolutely had to hold his own objective, and in this all-bike army, there weren't a lot of choices to use for that role.
But 3 failed DT tests, followed by 3 failed armor saves?!? Ouch.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 17:01:17
Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?
2012/08/10 17:26:37
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
If the red line in the diagram is 36" long the necron player would have cheated. It would probably need to be no more than 30" to be a legal move but this depends on the angle. I think this is what the person asking originally meant.
Something to keep in mind.
Yes, that is what I meant, although poorly explained.
If the red line in the diagram is 36" long the necron player would have cheated. It would probably need to be no more than 30" to be a legal move but this depends on the angle. I think this is what the person asking originally meant.
Something to keep in mind.
Yes, that is what I meant, although poorly explained.
Keep in mind that a Scythe arriving from reserves still gets a 90 degree turn at the end of its move. It could fly on at a less extreme angle than in my diagram then turn to face its target (so, at the end of its move, it looks parallel to the board edge). From my own experience with Flyers, that Doom Scythe's position looks very reasonable.
2012/08/10 18:01:31
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
Incorrect, 90 degree t the start only. When entering reserve you can come on a whatever angle you want so long as you don't leave play that same turn but you do not get a pivot at the end.
Automatically Appended Next Post: unless I missed something that gives NS vector dancer?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 18:03:04
Red Corsair wrote:I also could not figure out why you would start a bike squad in terrain on your objective.
I can understand hiding them; he absolutely had to hold his own objective, and in this all-bike army, there weren't a lot of choices to use for that role.
But 3 failed DT tests, followed by 3 failed armor saves?!? Ouch.
So why not put the objective in the extreme corner so it could be screened off with a bike squad? It doesn't make sense to me either way to put your bikes in terrain where he did. They lack the range of a support squad and where the objective was placed a NS transported unit of warriors could have contested it at any time from the other side last turn.
Red Corsair wrote:I also could not figure out why you would start a bike squad in terrain on your objective.
I can understand hiding them; he absolutely had to hold his own objective, and in this all-bike army, there weren't a lot of choices to use for that role.
But 3 failed DT tests, followed by 3 failed armor saves?!? Ouch.
So why not put the objective in the extreme corner so it could be screened off with a bike squad? It doesn't make sense to me either way to put your bikes in terrain where he did. They lack the range of a support squad and where the objective was placed a NS transported unit of warriors could have contested it at any time from the other side last turn.
Trying to avoid getting shot to death? Tesla Destructors are really nasty guns - they still wound T5 on a 2+. (And remember, "extreme corner" is still limited to 6" in from the edges, which is pretty close to where the objective is, so far as I can tell from the pictures.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 18:18:33
Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?
2012/08/10 18:55:31
Subject: The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
OK and your point being that attempting to hide 5 bikes in DT is a good plan? Then why barely move and suffer the 5 tests? No, sorry, but I have to disagree. Put it in a none dangerous corner and grab it with your closest units later. Leaving it only encourages him to disembark his warriors early. If he doesn't until last turn (which would be smart) then my point stands. The best way to beat fliers is with mobility and target saturation. Hiding a unit, in DT to boot, simply gives the flying list one less target to have to choose between. As I said, I would have engaged in CC turn two with everything possible (even the farseer) except the jet-bikes who can out range his army every movement phase do to the restrictions on zooming.
Edit: after double checking they weren't even out of sight, a flyer hugging the edge would see down on most of the unit....and there's a fething door lol.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 19:02:25
whigwam wrote:Keep in mind that a Scythe arriving from reserves still gets a 90 degree turn at the end of its move. It could fly on at a less extreme angle than in my diagram then turn to face its target (so, at the end of its move, it looks parallel to the board edge). From my own experience with Flyers, that Doom Scythe's position looks very reasonable.
This is what concerned me - many people aren't understanding/restricting flier movement appropriately and making them more potent than they should be. Unless noted that somehow the Doom Scythe gets Vector Dancer, which I couldn't find. Again, it's likely a fine move anyways.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/10 19:34:18
Red Corsair wrote:OK and your point being that attempting to hide 5 bikes in DT is a good plan? Then why barely move and suffer the 5 tests? No, sorry, but I have to disagree. Put it in a none dangerous corner and grab it with your closest units later. Leaving it only encourages him to disembark his warriors early. If he doesn't until last turn (which would be smart) then my point stands. The best way to beat fliers is with mobility and target saturation. Hiding a unit, in DT to boot, simply gives the flying list one less target to have to choose between. As I said, I would have engaged in CC turn two with everything possible (even the farseer) except the jet-bikes who can out range his army every movement phase do to the restrictions on zooming.
Edit: after double checking they weren't even out of sight, a flyer hugging the edge would see down on most of the unit....and there's a fething door lol.
No it was a horrible plan.
To be honest I was beat by his list and over thinking. I was so panicked about the wraiths I made plenty of bad calls. I should have just lined up and gone after him in assault with the bikes as pointed out earlier. Getting back to an objective has never been a problem for me so... meh, what else can I say. I was a hot sweaty mess that game!
Though to be fair bikes I have not had much problem with bikes and cover. Rolling an occasional one and then getting an armor save means usually not many dead bikes.
Not sure if anyone has brought this up - but did your opponent in Game 4 also fail his armour saves against the terrain tests? I assume so if he lost 3 bikers - but that is some terrible odds (1 in 18 now to kill a bike via terrain!
Captn Dees wrote:Though to be fair bikes I have not had much problem with bikes and cover. Rolling an occasional one and then getting an armor save means usually not many dead bikes.
Usually...
Seriously, I think probability of failing 3 (of 5) Terrain checks and then 3 armor saves is something along the lines of 8000:1.
2012/08/10 23:37:19
Subject: Re:The Road to the Golden Throne GT (Game #1 p.2, Game #2 & #3 p.3, Game #4 on p.4)
calypso2ts wrote:Not sure if anyone has brought this up - but did your opponent in Game 4 also fail his armour saves against the terrain tests? I assume so if he lost 3 bikers - but that is some terrible odds (1 in 18 now to kill a bike via terrain!
He rolled 3 1's for dangerous terrain. He then rolled 1,1,2 (or maybe 1,2,2) for his armor saves. My heart went out to those bikers. They died before my deathray could vaporize them....
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/11 00:09:12
At the last 'Ard boys semis I played a guy with two, two-man oblit squads. Turn one he rolls for plasma canon over heat and gets snake eyes, he then rolls for saves....snake eyes. OK, next unit, snake eyes for over heat.....snake eyes again for armor saves!!!! He had also just rolled his first DT with a rhino in terrain right before that, I had never seen such bad rolling in my life the kid refused to roll on that side of the table for the rest of the game ha ha.
Literally the first 9 rolls he made of the game were all !!! Poor guy had the worst luck I had ever seen, it didn't stop there all match either rofl.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Captn Dees wrote:
Red Corsair wrote:OK and your point being that attempting to hide 5 bikes in DT is a good plan? Then why barely move and suffer the 5 tests? No, sorry, but I have to disagree. Put it in a none dangerous corner and grab it with your closest units later. Leaving it only encourages him to disembark his warriors early. If he doesn't until last turn (which would be smart) then my point stands. The best way to beat fliers is with mobility and target saturation. Hiding a unit, in DT to boot, simply gives the flying list one less target to have to choose between. As I said, I would have engaged in CC turn two with everything possible (even the farseer) except the jet-bikes who can out range his army every movement phase do to the restrictions on zooming.
Edit: after double checking they weren't even out of sight, a flyer hugging the edge would see down on most of the unit....and there's a fething door lol.
No it was a horrible plan.
To be honest I was beat by his list and over thinking. I was so panicked about the wraiths I made plenty of bad calls. I should have just lined up and gone after him in assault with the bikes as pointed out earlier. Getting back to an objective has never been a problem for me so... meh, what else can I say. I was a hot sweaty mess that game!
Though to be fair bikes I have not had much problem with bikes and cover. Rolling an occasional one and then getting an armor save means usually not many dead bikes.
Usually...
I hear ya mate, I find it hard to even WANT to continue playing 40k by my fourth game let alone more after. Sometimes I drop when or if their is an odd number even if im in contention to win it because I find it no longer fun and want to watch the other games. So brain farts are not uncommon by then, especially if your prone to overthink. Love your army comp btw, must be a fun list to play.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/08/11 01:46:04
whigwam wrote:The flyer will have to start off the board edge, but I believe it can move anywhere from 18" to 36" when zooming. Anyway, it would look like this in practice:
Red line being the Scythe's movement. Hope that answers your question?
Right, so I phrased that rather poorly. The flier can, at most, move 36". Since the entire model has to start off the board edge, that means if you move it straight backwards 36", the entire model would be off the board. I guess, to me, it looks like the flier is parallel (or nearly) with the long board edge. It could just be the angle, but it doesn't seem like the flier would be off the board if moved backwards up to 36". In the end it wouldn't have effected the game either way, I just want to make sure I hadn't missed anything.
It can be done easily enough. That move requires about 30" of movement to pull off (+/- a couple of inches). There is room left to spare. You also have a 45 deg arc afterwards so you can defintely hit units in the more extreme angles if you came in along the long board edge. And if you couldn't with the tesla, you could with the deathray. That gun gives you a little more leeway.
Aleinikov wrote:This is an example of what not knowing the enemy does for you. Did the SM Biker player have any idea how a Doom Scythe works? The way he lined up the bikers is almost as good as conceeding the game.
He's played against them once before, in the same tournament. I think its a combination of fatigue (after 5 games) and a little bit of panic.
Ricter wrote:
Aleinikov wrote:This is an example of what not knowing the enemy does for you. Did the SM Biker player have any idea how a Doom Scythe works? The way he lined up the bikers is almost as good as conceeding the game.
The games really seem more and more like examples as to why you need to read your opponent's codex before playing them. It seems so far not a single opponent has known how to play against Necron air force.
The BRB is still new. Many people haven't gotten a lot of games in yet. And probably the more diehard fans who are constantly lurking through the internet forums will probably have an idea of how the power builds are like. But for many here (and around the world in various tournaments), I think it's going to be a learning experience.
Also, sometimes reading about something and then playing against them are 2 completely different things. You may know what its stats are, but how well it synergizes on the table with the rest of the army can you won't know until you face it for the very first time.
wuestenfux wrote:
pretre wrote:Doom doesn't affect a friendly unit, just an enemy unit, so non-BB still get it.
This can be quite nasty! But it wasn't in game 5.
It did probably help him kill 1-2 more wraiths. But mainly, it makes the eldar allies somewhat useful against a non-psychic army.
pretre wrote:Yeah, a lot of armies can take a Doomseer with Runes and a cheap troop, park them in area terrain >6" from your own guys and get psychic defense and Doom for pretty cheap.
Doomseer with Runes - 95
5 Rangers - 95
Look on your opponent's face when you Doom one of his squads and then wreck face with your Nob Bikers? Priceless.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Might even be a time when Pathfinders are worth it, to get the added cover protection for the Farseer.
I like the jetseer with guardian jetbikes much better. More expensive, but a lot more utility with that mobility of theirs, including objective grabbing/contesting and Linebreaker.
Captn Dees wrote:I had actually played another Necron army two rounds before that had two Doom Sythes. It was also Hammer and Anvil. In that game I had stayed back and when his first Doom Sythe Came in I was a little better spaced and I made an appropriate amount of jink saves. So the initial damage wasn't so bad. Then I just hammered it with MultiMeltas and plasmas.
The problem this game was there were 4 fliers instead of 2, and I was being threatened with the wraiths wheras the last game a bunch of warriors just hung in the back field.
In both games playing Hammer and Anvil I unfortunately have too many bases and not enough room. I'm trying to stay right at 23" so I can shoot buy not likely get charged. But there isn't enough realestate in this deployment to get spaced out like you can in dawn of war. Believe me everything about this mission had me cringing (single objective, hammer and anvil, necron flyers).
So I felt like I had to take the risk to try to down those wraith or get the barge to as least get first blood.
Alas that didn't happen, he got first blood, and I would eventually lose the game by one point (if I recall). My only loss of the tournament (I tied one other game).
And jy2 is spot on when he said it was this was the list I wanted to play least. I knew I would be on table two day two and have to play either mech GK, mech BA, or Necron Fliers. All the guys are great generals but GARGH fliers of doom was the last thing I wanted to see for this particular game. If it had been just about any other mission and deployment I felt like I could have had a chance.
So I'll admit I was a bit flummoxed as to what to do to pull out a win this game.
But certainly hats off to jy2 for a great tournament win!
Thanks Dan,
It was a rough matchup for you for sure. Your army actually made me have to think. Should I go after your objective with my wraiths and get all shot to death or should I just defend mine and try to contest at the end with my warriors in scythes? Honestly, I didn't take your army lightly as I think SM bikers have gotten a major boost this edition.
But a couple of things worked in my favor. Hammer and Anvil deployment forced you to bunch up because you were trying to maximize firepower against my wraiths (so that every unit and everyone in that unit could shoot).
Also, you didn't quite know how to play against my list. You were basically playing instinctively against it how you would have played against every other army.
But you are now a game wiser. The next time we play, I expect you to be able to table me.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/08/11 14:28:30
jy2 wrote:It can be done easily enough. That move requires about 30" of movement to pull off (+/- a couple of inches). There is room left to spare. You also have a 45 deg arc afterwards so you can defintely hit units in the more extreme angles if you came in along the long board edge. And if you couldn't with the tesla, you could with the deathray. That gun gives you a little more leeway.
Oh, of course. That's why I said earlier it didn't effect the game - the 45 degree arc means you had plenty of leeway, really. Actually, just thinking about it now, but you more punished yourself with that move than anything - you could have essentially come in at a 45 degree angle from the board edge, and had a much wider area you could move the next turn.
I guess I am a little disappointed so far, though. I was hoping to see strong tactics from your opponents, and maybe a few close games. Instead, it seems you've rolled over everyone without trying, mostly because not a single opponent seems to have any idea what to do against Necron Airforce. Every single one has played into your conservative "hang back and burn time until fliers arrive" strategy. All credit due to you for using the right strategy and I'm not trying to take away from your win - but it'd be nice to see if someone playing a ground list using proper tactics can throw up a competitive game, and we've not seen that yet.
Captn Dees wrote:Though to be fair bikes I have not had much problem with bikes and cover. Rolling an occasional one and then getting an armor save means usually not many dead bikes.
Usually...
Seriously, I think probability of failing 3 (of 5) Terrain checks and then 3 armor saves is something along the lines of 8000:1.
I think it's somewhere along the line of 5/3 (5 guys/3 tests) x 1/18 x 1/18 x 1/18 = 1/3499, or about 3500:1, but I could be wrong. My math's a little rusty.
Red Corsair wrote:At the last 'Ard boys semis I played a guy with two, two-man oblit squads. Turn one he rolls for plasma canon over heat and gets snake eyes, he then rolls for saves....snake eyes. OK, next unit, snake eyes for over heat.....snake eyes again for armor saves!!!! He had also just rolled his first DT with a rhino in terrain right before that, I had never seen such bad rolling in my life the kid refused to roll on that side of the table for the rest of the game ha ha.
Literally the first 9 rolls he made of the game were all !!! Poor guy had the worst luck I had ever seen, it didn't stop there all match either rofl.
All I can say to that is.....
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Ricter wrote:
jy2 wrote:It can be done easily enough. That move requires about 30" of movement to pull off (+/- a couple of inches). There is room left to spare. You also have a 45 deg arc afterwards so you can defintely hit units in the more extreme angles if you came in along the long board edge. And if you couldn't with the tesla, you could with the deathray. That gun gives you a little more leeway.
Oh, of course. That's why I said earlier it didn't effect the game - the 45 degree arc means you had plenty of leeway, really. Actually, just thinking about it now, but you more punished yourself with that move than anything - you could have essentially come in at a 45 degree angle from the board edge, and had a much wider area you could move the next turn.
I guess I am a little disappointed so far, though. I was hoping to see strong tactics from your opponents, and maybe a few close games. Instead, it seems you've rolled over everyone without trying, mostly because not a single opponent seems to have any idea what to do against Necron Airforce. Every single one has played into your conservative "hang back and burn time until fliers arrive" strategy. All credit due to you for using the right strategy and I'm not trying to take away from your win - but it'd be nice to see if someone playing a ground list using proper tactics can throw up a competitive game, and we've not seen that yet.
Don't worry, I get quite a fight coming up in my next 2 games - against Christian and Frankie, both of whom are very good players from Team Zero Comp. As a matter of fact, Christian is ranked #3 and Frankie #20 in the US on RankingsHQ.com. Christian was also the winner of the Bay Area Open last year.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/08/11 15:03:16
Captn Dees wrote:Though to be fair bikes I have not had much problem with bikes and cover. Rolling an occasional one and then getting an armor save means usually not many dead bikes.
Usually...
Seriously, I think probability of failing 3 (of 5) Terrain checks and then 3 armor saves is something along the lines of 8000:1.
I think it's somewhere along the line of 5/3 (5 guys/3 tests) x 1/18 x 1/18 x 1/18 = 1/3499, or about 3500:1, but I could be wrong. My math's a little rusty.
(5/6)(5/6)(1/6)(1/6)(1/6) * (1/3)(1/3)(1/3) = 25 / 209952 = 1 / 8398 ish. I think you forgot to account for the fact that he did pass two of the tests. Of course, that's a bit misleading - that's the probability of failing exactly 3 dt tests of 5 and failing every armor save - there are a lot of ways he could have ended up with 3 (or more dead). Still pretty bad odds, though.
And not trying to derail the thread, but since everyone is talking flyer tactics I wanted to point out this article James Curry wrote for us about getting the maximum amount of shots out of a flyer, it is really well done.
So after 5 games, there are only 2 undefeated players left, Christian with his Grey Knights and me with my Necrons. Christian is a very good and successful tournament player. He won the Bay Area Open GT 2012 as well as Comikaze 2011. He also got 2nd at the Grand Waagh 2011 last year. He is currently ranked #3 overall in the USA according to RankingsHQ.com and was ranked #1 for a while.
I've actually played him once before at a tournament at Game Kastle (battle report here http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/346664.page ). He brought his vicious mechguards and I brought my shooty tyranids. We actually tied in our match against each other and overall as well. However, he got the tiebreaker against me so ended up 1st whereas I took 2nd.
It appears we finally get our long-awaited rematch.
1500 Necrons
I used a slightly tweaked version of my list #3.
Destroyer Lord - Mindshackle Scarabs, Resurrection Orb, Weave - 190
5x Warriors - Night Scythe
5x Warriors - Night Scythe
5x Warriors
5x Warriors
3x Henchmen - Razorback w/Psybolt Ammo + Searchlights
3x Henchmen - Razorback w/Psybolt Ammo + Searchlights
3x Henchmen - Razorback w/Psybolt Ammo + Searchlights
3x Henchmen - Razorback w/Psybolt Ammo + Searchlights
3x Henchmen - Razorback w/Psybolt Ammo + Searchlights
Dreadknight - Heavy Incinerator, Personal Teleporter
Psyfleman Dread - 2x TL-autocannons, Psybolt Ammo
Psyfleman Dread - 2x TL-autocannons, Psybolt Ammo
Christian has brought a very shooty grey knights army. His type of army is what is refered to in the competitive meta as MSU, or multiple-small-units. Basically, the philosophy behind MSU is to take maximum advantage of min-max army configurations. You minimize the squad size and then maximize the number of squads. This brings increased firepower, increased redundancy and target saturation for the opponent. It really emphasizes efficiency of build and maximal firepower. Its main drawbacks? Weak troops who can't really hold objectives well and a high amount of Kill Points, or in this case, Victory Points for the Purge the Alien scenario.
Back in 5th edition, MSU was considered one of the most competitive army builds. The question now is, how well will it hold up in 6th Edition? Is MSU still king, or one of the kings of competitive 40K? Well, so far, my opponent has been wrecking house with a 5-0 record up til now. But now he's about to run into what may be the future of competitive 6th Edition - my scythe-crons.
PRE-GAME THOUGHTS: My opponent's shooting is fearsome indeed. Of all the armies in this tournament, his may well be the shootiest one. It's got good ranged AT and while his anti-infantry may not necessarily be the best, it's pretty darn good. As for assault, some may look at the 3-men henchmen units and go, "Huh? What assault?" But we veteran players know better. MSU armies don't rely on assault. What they do is either tarpit you (with dreads) or screen out with sacrificial units. You may kill that unit, but he's just bought himself another turn of shooting with the sacrifice of that screening unit. Honestly, I think that MSU is still a very competitive build in 6E despite the slight nerf to vehicles (i.e. they are easier to kill now).
Also, the key to killing flyers is massed shooting. The more the better. And twin-linked shooting is IMO the most efficient way (in the absence of skyfire) to do it. My opponent has got a lot of twin-linked shooting in spades, and that isn't just his vehicles. With psychic powers, he can also make his purifiers twin-linked with 8 psycannon shots a turn. His shooting is actually a large concern of mine. How well the game goes will depend on how well his shooting goes. If he shoots well, he will win. If not, I will win. Simple.
In spite of all his shooting, my opponent is going to have his hands full. If there is one thing my army excels in, that's taking out vehicles, including those AV12 dreads. I will get the alpha strike every time my flyers come in. The doomscythe is almost a guaranteed 1 kill at least, whereas each night scythe has a very good chance to take out his AV11 transports. If my wraiths can hold out until my flyers can come in (I'm going to need them to kill his infantry), then I think I will have the advantage, because every wave of flyers that come in will reduce his firepower and allow my wraiths to play more aggressively.
Also, one thing to note is that his dreadknight is actually dangerous now. With his S10 and force weapons, he is a threat to both my wraiths and my Lord. He may just be the X-factor in this game.
BTW, Coteaz gets the power that let's 1 unit re-roll hits (Prescience) as well as the power that gives a unit 4++ invuln (Forewarning). Every turn, he would cast Prescience on his own Purifier unit.
I am very fortunate this turn. Shooting from his entire army only puts 1W on 1 wraith in each squad as well as 2W on my Warlord.
He also takes off 1 Hull Point from my AB with a glancing shot.
While it's sad that I won't be able to use my Dlord to tank his shooting anymore (I am down to just 1W left), at least I haven't lost a single model this turn.
Necrons 1
Spoiler:
Crons advance. So stupid of me....I move my annihilation barge 12". I should have just moved it 6" so that it can fire at full Ballistic Skill.
Anyways, it fires in snapshot mode and takes off 1 HP from Coteaz's ride. I was planning to get First Blood with my AB, but now my opponent has the chance to do that. I'm going to kick myself if I lose because of First Blood.
My wraiths attempt to charge his rhino. Overwatch from Coteaz's unit, which by the ways is twin-linked due to Prescience, takes out 1 wraith. I then fail my charge.
Grey Knights 2
Spoiler:
His dreadknight moves to about 20" away from my wraiths.
Now he starts to spread out in anticipation of my doomscythes.
His shooting is awesome this turn as he wipes out 1 entire unit of wraiths! He also gets First Blood for doing so.
He also kills 1 wraith my from my other wraith squad.
Overall, a very good turn of shooting for my opponent.
Necrons 2
Spoiler:
Payback time! Both doomscythes come in.
My wraiths take the bait and go after his dreadknight. Warriors head for the Relic.
I roll low for 1 deathray and it only hits his vendread and a psyback. I glance/pen his dread to death (exploded) and stun a psyback (which he fortitudes off on his turn).
Actually, I roll low for both deathrays. The other doomscythe only kills the dread on the hill (exploded as well).
Finally, I assault his dreadknight. He then challenges my Warlord and I accept.
Mindshackle fails to go off and he kills my Warlord. We play it as, even though his dreadknight is in base contact with my wraith's whip coils, he didn't get reduced to Initiative 1 because he is in a challenge.
My Dlord would fail to get back up. I knew I shouldn't have accepted his challenge....
Not looking too good for me right now. 1 unit of wraiths and my Warlord both gone. The other unit stuck in combat against his dreadknight....
Grey Knights 3
Spoiler:
GK movement. Both his purifiers stay still.
Shooting completely wipes out 1 unit of warriors and 1 model from my 2nd unit.
Then his shooting gets really hot. He downs 1 doomscythe and takes out the deathray on the other doomscythe!!!
In assault, I do 1W to his dreadknight and he insta-kills 1 wraith.
Necrons 3
Spoiler:
Neither of my night scythes come in!!!
Doomscythe moves 18". AB tries to get cover behind the ruins. Warriors make a dash for the Relic but will need another turn....assuming they survive.
AB wrecks his psyback that was heading for my deployment zone.
Doom scythe shoots at his last dread. I take 2 HP's off and stun it (which he fortitudes off next turn).
Finally, wraiths take off another 1W from the dreadknight and he kills another wraith.
He's basically eliminated all my major threats (doomscythes, wraiths, Warlord) as well as wiped out 1 troop unit. He still has all his scoring units as well as both units of purifiers.
Victory is looking more and more "un-possible" at this point.
Grey Knights 4
Spoiler:
He goes in for the kill. Both units of purifiers disembark and swarm the Relic to prevent my warriors from taking it.
They lay waste to my unit of warriors.
He fails to do anything to my doomscythe.
I believe he takes off another 1 HP from my AB with another glance.
Finally in assault, I do another 1W to his dreadknight.
Necrons 4
Spoiler:
Finally, my night scythes automatically come in from reserves. I go right after his purifiers and Coteaz.
My doomscythe flies off the board and into Ongoing Reserves.
Focused-fire takes out 3 purifiers and insta-gibs Coteaz (I believe he also failed his Look Out Sir).
At least I get 1 VP for slaying his Warlord.
I believe the tesla arc zaps the rhino behind for another Hull Point (1 HP left).
My AB snipes down his last dread.
Finally, I finish off his dreadknight.
Despite a decent turn from me, I am still behind.
Grey Knights 5
Spoiler:
GK movement. He moves his guys and transport to protect the Relic.
Transports mobilize. His unit of henchmen finally goes to claim the Relic, which he didn't plan to do until this turn.
To stop my wraiths from meddling, he shoots them down.
Last but not least, he moves his transports flat-out in the Shooting phase to protect his guys.
Necrons 5
Spoiler:
So he's got the Relic. I think I can wrestle that away from him if I can shoot down his henchmen.
We've both killed each other's Warlord.
And he's winning right now by First Blood.
I have a slight chance at a draw. My opponent makes a mistake that I thought was uncharacteristic of him. He forgot to get one of his units into my deployment zone for Linebreaker.
So I need to kill off the unit with the Relic, get 1 of my troops into his deployment zone....and then pray that the game ends.
I've set up my last turn exactly for this strategy.
Doom scythe comes in. 1 night scythe zips forwards 18".
The other night scythe zips 36" into his deployment zone and drops off my troops another 6". It then flies off the board with its flat-out move and my troops run behind cover.
Shooting wipes out his troops! Though I have to fire both my AB and doomscythe at them because they went-to-ground.
My night scythe wrecks his psyback. I would have shot at his henchmen, but it was iffy if I could have shot them due to the 45 deg vertical arc of my teslas (I probably could but I didn't want to take the chance).
So now he no longer has the Relic. He's got my Warlord and First Blood for 2 VP's. I've got his Warlord and Linebreaker also for 2 VP's.
I pick up the die and pray to the dice gods to see if I can pull off a Frankie on my opponent. (Twice against his fellow teammate Frankie, when he was thoroughly thrashing my army, I get those 2 games to end after 5 to give me the win.)
So I roll to see if the game continues and.....
Grey Knights 6
Spoiler:
The show must go on....
Vehicles go and try to protect his fragile troops. My opponent is trying to block my LOS to his troops so that I cannot shoot them down. The smaller unit of purifiers go after my AB.
Another unit of henchmen jumps on the Relic to claim it.
Shooting immobilizes (locks the velocity of) my night scythe and takes off 1 HP.
He shoots at my warriors in his deployment zone and bring down 2. 1 gets back up.
Transports move flat-out to make sure I can't see his troops.
Finally, his purifiers assault my AB with his S10 hammer and explode it.
Necrons 6
Spoiler:
Doomscythe comes in from ongoing reserves. I can see his troops with the Relic. My "immobilized" night scythe flies off the board and the other doom scythe moves to where the night scythe was.
I shoot down the henchmen out in the open. However, I fail to shoot down his henchmen with the Relic as he successfully makes his cover saves!
Uh oh! If the game ends now, I lose as Christian is in possession of the Relic.
We roll to see if it continues and.....
Grey Knights 7
Spoiler:
The game isn't over til the plump lady sings....which should be at the end of this game turn.
His purifiers go after my warriors.
One unit of henchmen disembark from his psyback after it moves 6". They then run into the forests in my deployment zone.
Finally, his purifiers shoot down my warriors.
And that is game....
Necrons 7
Spoiler:
I just finish up my turn for formalities. Doomscythe comes in.
My night scythe goes and drop off my troops into his deployment zone for Linebreaker.
Doomscythe sees and shoots down his henchmen with the Relic. If only I had been able to do that last turn. Le sigh.....
.....Bay Area Open GT 2013 - Best Tyranids 
.....LVO GT 2014 Team Tournament - Best Generals
!!! Poor guy had the worst luck I had ever seen, it didn't stop there all match either rofl.
! Coteaz then makes me re-roll and I fail the second time around. 
