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Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




Also keep in mind that in KT matched play, you'll be able to plan out 20 GK models with different loadouts and specializations, then build your 5 man kill team out of them at the start of each game. This lets us take pretty much every option and then tailor our kill team exactly to what we are facing, and seems like a pretty good advantage over some of the factions that will always be taking 10+ models and be more likely to have a bad match up.
   
Made in us
Hooded Inquisitorial Interrogator





Has anyone tried the incinerator? Thoughts? I've used it twice and it was incredibly effective for a turn or two, then my opponents just avoided him like the plague.

There is no such thing as a plea of innocence in my court. A plea of innocence is guilty of wasting my time. Guilty. - Lord Inquisitor Fyodor Karamazov

In an Imperium of a million worlds, what is the death of one world in the cause of purity?~Inquisition credo

He who allows the alien to live, shares its crime of existence. ~Inquisitor Apollyon
 
   
Made in us
Executing Exarch




Even on the 20 man roster aren't you still limited to a leader and 3 specialists? If so, then the other 16 models are just normal GK strike team members.

I'm planning:
Justicar - leadership
Gunner (psilencer) - hvy weap
Gunner (incinerator)
Striker w halberd x2 (1 Zealot, 1 Vet)

I don't think that the incinerator really needs to be a specialist since he really doesn't need many/any bonii. The biggest problem I have is that my fire team will not advance very often unless the incinerator kills someone. He isn't eligible for the participation experience point because that requires at least 2 members of the fire team be in play and GK are almost always only going to have the Leader and 3 specialists on the board leaving room for only 1 other model.
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

 Zarroc1733 wrote:
Has anyone tried the incinerator? Thoughts? I've used it twice and it was incredibly effective for a turn or two, then my opponents just avoided him like the plague.

I was originally questioning the incinerator vs having a guaranteed 4 shots with a stormbolter+CC multi-damage, but with the amount of negative hit modifiers it could be useful.

Something that changes a little for us vs 40k is that being able to inflict multiple wounds on a target isn’t really as useful anymore...if I wound you 2 times with a storm bolter, only one actually “counts”. For shooting I think this makes the psilencer an autotake since even with negatives you’ve got enough shots to probably get a wound through, and an average of 75% chance to take a model out of action from range. For CC, I need to re-run the numbers to see if “always take falchions” still holds true (though being able to split attacks if you get multi-charged is useful).

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in nz
Unshakeable Grey Knight Land Raider Pilot




 greyknight12 wrote:
 Zarroc1733 wrote:
Has anyone tried the incinerator? Thoughts? I've used it twice and it was incredibly effective for a turn or two, then my opponents just avoided him like the plague.

I was originally questioning the incinerator vs having a guaranteed 4 shots with a stormbolter+CC multi-damage, but with the amount of negative hit modifiers it could be useful.

Something that changes a little for us vs 40k is that being able to inflict multiple wounds on a target isn’t really as useful anymore...if I wound you 2 times with a storm bolter, only one actually “counts”. For shooting I think this makes the psilencer an autotake since even with negatives you’ve got enough shots to probably get a wound through, and an average of 75% chance to take a model out of action from range. For CC, I need to re-run the numbers to see if “always take falchions” still holds true (though being able to split attacks if you get multi-charged is useful).


Agreed on pilencers being the best. I wouldn't see them ever being outclassed by psycannons. Perhaps vs plague marines psycannons might be better thanks to the higher strength? I don't really wanna math it. Will definitely be trying incinerators at some stage. You have to get close but due to the way charging works and your improved mobility (with advance) you can basically ensure that anything that could charge you will definitely be overwatched. I forsee throwing the flamer dude into the enemy line along with the 2+ save stratagem as a crucial breakthrough move.

One thing Ive noted from my first few games is that you will more often than not have targets that are within 2 inches of each other as long as you are playing with enough LOS blocking terrain. There is a natural tendancy to group up your models when trying to gain supremacy over a fire lane, while also taking advantage of the cover available. This means that a single weapon firing multiple 1 damage shots is usually not a detriment, as you just split those shots across your desired targets. Often I would just fire all the shots at a priority target anyway (like damned plasma guns).

   
Made in us
Hooded Inquisitorial Interrogator





So I just realized pox walkers don't have the daemon keyword. Obviously they'll add in some daemons later, and I'm not too perturbed but just wanted to let you all know you won't be getting your daemon buffs at all yet.

I do wonder why our psybolt range is nerfed. Because all of our models are psykers whereas only a sorcerer is for thousand sons?

There is no such thing as a plea of innocence in my court. A plea of innocence is guilty of wasting my time. Guilty. - Lord Inquisitor Fyodor Karamazov

In an Imperium of a million worlds, what is the death of one world in the cause of purity?~Inquisition credo

He who allows the alien to live, shares its crime of existence. ~Inquisitor Apollyon
 
   
Made in us
Guarded Grey Knight Terminator






Psilencer is great. I am liking mine with a demolition specialist. Most models will be obscured so +1 to wound there is nice (and helps offset their obscured bonus), and the +1 to wound for 1cp makes a psilencer wound most anything in cover on a 2.

Things in the open are wounded on a 2-3 depending on toughness with the strategm.

Sniper or comms is awesome too for extra accuracy. Or if you want to make sure something dies, a comms nearby to give the psilencer +1 to hit. Hitting on 2+(3+ in cover) wounding on 2-3 will kill most targets.

As for the incinerators... Would the veterans strategm allow them to move at the start of the first battle round and in the subsequent movement phase? Could make him wicked fast and get in someone's face quick with the flamer. And then he doesn't mind being there against melee armies either because his overwatch can be so devastating.

"Glory in our suffering, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope"
-Paul of Tarsus

If my post seems goofy, assume I am posting from my phone and the autocorrect elf in my phone is drunk again 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





So assuming anti tanl isn’t an issue what’s the best grey knights 500 point army look like? Thinking about taking them with imperial knights

011000100111010101110100001000000110100 100100000011101000110010101101100011011 000010000001111001011011110111010100100 000011101110110010100100000011101110110 010101110010011001010010000001100111011 011110110010001110011001000000110111101 101110011000110110010100100000011000010 110111001100100001000000111011101100101 001000000111001101101000011000010110110 001101100001000000110001001100101001000 000110011101101111011001000111001100100 000011000010110011101100001011010010110 1110  
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




Leo_the_Rat wrote:
Even on the 20 man roster aren't you still limited to a leader and 3 specialists? If so, then the other 16 models are just normal GK strike team members.

I'm planning:
Justicar - leadership
Gunner (psilencer) - hvy weap
Gunner (incinerator)
Striker w halberd x2 (1 Zealot, 1 Vet)

I don't think that the incinerator really needs to be a specialist since he really doesn't need many/any bonii. The biggest problem I have is that my fire team will not advance very often unless the incinerator kills someone. He isn't eligible for the participation experience point because that requires at least 2 members of the fire team be in play and GK are almost always only going to have the Leader and 3 specialists on the board leaving room for only 1 other model.


The 20 man roster is any 20 models of any type and any combination of specialists, with no limits other than you can only have 20. Before each game you have to build a legal kill team out of these 20 models, though. So you can have multible leaders, for example, but only ever play with one at a time.
   
Made in us
Journeyman Inquisitor with Visions of the Warp






Dimmamar

 Smotejob wrote:
Psilencer is great. I am liking mine with a demolition specialist. Most models will be obscured so +1 to wound there is nice (and helps offset their obscured bonus), and the +1 to wound for 1cp makes a psilencer wound most anything in cover on a 2.

Things in the open are wounded on a 2-3 depending on toughness with the strategm.

Sniper or comms is awesome too for extra accuracy. Or if you want to make sure something dies, a comms nearby to give the psilencer +1 to hit. Hitting on 2+(3+ in cover) wounding on 2-3 will kill most targets.

As for the incinerators... Would the veterans strategm allow them to move at the start of the first battle round and in the subsequent movement phase? Could make him wicked fast and get in someone's face quick with the flamer. And then he doesn't mind being there against melee armies either because his overwatch can be so devastating.


I don't think GK have the Sniper specialty, unfortunately....

40k Resources

LVO 2017 - Best GK Player

The Grimdark Future 8500 1000 1500 4500

"[We have] an inheritance which is beyond the reach of change and decay." 1 Peter 1.4
"With the Emperor there is no variation or shadow due to change." James 1.17
“Fear the Emperor; do not associate with those who are given to change.” Proverbs 24.21 
   
Made in us
Guarded Grey Knight Terminator






jcd386 wrote:
Leo_the_Rat wrote:
Even on the 20 man roster aren't you still limited to a leader and 3 specialists? If so, then the other 16 models are just normal GK strike team members.

I'm planning:
Justicar - leadership
Gunner (psilencer) - hvy weap
Gunner (incinerator)
Striker w halberd x2 (1 Zealot, 1 Vet)

I don't think that the incinerator really needs to be a specialist since he really doesn't need many/any bonii. The biggest problem I have is that my fire team will not advance very often unless the incinerator kills someone. He isn't eligible for the participation experience point because that requires at least 2 members of the fire team be in play and GK are almost always only going to have the Leader and 3 specialists on the board leaving room for only 1 other model.


The 20 man roster is any 20 models of any type and any combination of specialists, with no limits other than you can only have 20. Before each game you have to build a legal kill team out of these 20 models, though. So you can have multible leaders, for example, but only ever play with one at a time.


Aka we get a nice side board?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/08/01 23:56:56


"Glory in our suffering, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope"
-Paul of Tarsus

If my post seems goofy, assume I am posting from my phone and the autocorrect elf in my phone is drunk again 
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

Alright, time for some basic killteam math. This will just be a starter baseline for now, obviously with the amount of modifiers available numbers can change. The numbers will reflect a single model target with no modifiers applied, and we'll look at results for T3 5+, T3 4+, and T4 3+ since these are fairly common.

We'll start with shooting, inside 12".

Storm Bolter - 4 shots/2.67 hits
T3 5+: 1.78 wounds, 1.18 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 1.78 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.45 out of action
T4 3+: 1.34 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.22 out of action

Psycannon - 4 shots/2.67 hits
T3 5+: 2.25 wounds, 1.85 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 2.25 wounds, 1.50 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T4 3+: 1.78 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.45 out of action

Incinerator - 3.5 avg shots/3.5 avg hits
T3 5+: 2.92 wounds, 2.43 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 2.92 wounds, 1.94 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T4 3+: 2.33 wounds, 1.17 unsaved, 0.50 out of action

Psilencer - 6 shots/4 hits
T3 5+: 2.67 wounds, 1.78 unsaved, 1.33 avg out of action
T3 4+: 2.67 wounds, 1.34 unsaved, 1.00 avg out of action
T4 3+: 2.00 wounds, 0.67 unsaved, 0.50 avg out of action

And for melee:

Sword - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.34 wounds, 0.28 unsaved, 0.21 avg out of action

Halberd - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.45 wounds, 0.38 unsaved, 0.28 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.45 wounds, 0.30 unsaved, 0.23 avg out of action

Hammer - 1 attack/0.50 hits
T3 5+: 0.42 wounds, 0.42 unsaved, 0.37 out of action
T3 4+: 0.42 wounds, 0.42 unsaved, 0.37 out of action
T4 3+: 0.42 wounds, 0.35 unsaved, 0.31 out of action

Falchions - 2 attacks/1.33 hits
T3 5+: 0.89 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.67 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.89 wounds, 0.74 unsaved, 0.56 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.67 wounds, 0.44 unsaved, 0.33 avg out of action

Warding Stave - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.56 wounds, 0.47 unsaved, 0.35 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.56 wounds, 0.37 unsaved, 0.28 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.45 wounds, 0.23 unsaved, 0.17 avg out of action

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in us
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps




Phoenix, AZ, USA

So ... Falchions and Psilencers.

SJ

“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world.”
- Ephesians 6:12
 
   
Made in us
Journeyman Inquisitor with Visions of the Warp






Dimmamar

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
So ... Falchions and Psilencers.

SJ


Lol, did you expect anything else?
I'm glad I was wrong about the injury roll and damage value, although I do miss my psycannons....

Do you think it's worth it, though, to get an incinerator upfield quickly? Seems like, with Prognosticators, he can be a shot-soak as well as charge deterrent.
I'm gonna try it out at least a few times, even though it means there's only one Psilencer on the board.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 greyknight12 wrote:
Alright, time for some basic killteam math. This will just be a starter baseline for now, obviously with the amount of modifiers available numbers can change. The numbers will reflect a single model target with no modifiers applied, and we'll look at results for T3 5+, T3 4+, and T4 3+ since these are fairly common.
Spoiler:

We'll start with shooting, inside 12".

Storm Bolter - 4 shots/2.67 hits
T3 5+: 1.78 wounds, 1.18 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 1.78 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.45 out of action
T4 3+: 1.34 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.22 out of action

Psycannon - 4 shots/2.67 hits
T3 5+: 2.25 wounds, 1.85 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 2.25 wounds, 1.50 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T4 3+: 1.78 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.45 out of action

Incinerator - 3.5 avg shots/3.5 avg hits
T3 5+: 2.92 wounds, 2.43 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T3 4+: 2.92 wounds, 1.94 unsaved, 0.50 out of action
T4 3+: 2.33 wounds, 1.17 unsaved, 0.50 out of action

Psilencer - 6 shots/4 hits
T3 5+: 2.67 wounds, 1.78 unsaved, 1.33 avg out of action
T3 4+: 2.67 wounds, 1.34 unsaved, 1.00 avg out of action
T4 3+: 2.00 wounds, 0.67 unsaved, 0.50 avg out of action

And for melee:

Sword - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.34 wounds, 0.28 unsaved, 0.21 avg out of action

Halberd - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.45 wounds, 0.45 unsaved, 0.34 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.45 wounds, 0.38 unsaved, 0.28 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.45 wounds, 0.30 unsaved, 0.23 avg out of action

Hammer - 1 attack/0.50 hits
T3 5+: 0.42 wounds, 0.42 unsaved, 0.37 out of action
T3 4+: 0.42 wounds, 0.42 unsaved, 0.37 out of action
T4 3+: 0.42 wounds, 0.35 unsaved, 0.31 out of action

Falchions - 2 attacks/1.33 hits
T3 5+: 0.89 wounds, 0.89 unsaved, 0.67 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.89 wounds, 0.74 unsaved, 0.56 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.67 wounds, 0.44 unsaved, 0.33 avg out of action

Warding Stave - 1 attack/0.67 hits
T3 5+: 0.56 wounds, 0.47 unsaved, 0.35 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.56 wounds, 0.37 unsaved, 0.28 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.45 wounds, 0.23 unsaved, 0.17 avg out of action


Can you do the melee for a Justicar? I'm thinking about a halb on him, to take advantage of the extra attack, and since he'll be going in with tougher leaders anyhow....

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/08/02 15:29:26


40k Resources

LVO 2017 - Best GK Player

The Grimdark Future 8500 1000 1500 4500

"[We have] an inheritance which is beyond the reach of change and decay." 1 Peter 1.4
"With the Emperor there is no variation or shadow due to change." James 1.17
“Fear the Emperor; do not associate with those who are given to change.” Proverbs 24.21 
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
So ... Falchions and Psilencers.

SJ

Yep, nothing really new; though unfortunately you won’t be able to do 2x psilencers and falchions on everyone at 100 pts.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
@Elric
For the Justicar (or anyone else with 2 attacks):

Sword - 2 attacks/1.33 hits
T3 5+: 0.88 wounds, 0.88 unsaved, 0.67 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.88 wounds, 0.88 unsaved, 0.67 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.67 wounds, 0.55 unsaved, 0.42 avg out of action

Halberd - 2 attacks/1.33 hits
T3 5+: 0.88 wounds, 0.88 unsaved, 0.67 avg out of action
T3 4+: 0.88 wounds, 0.73 unsaved, 0.55 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.88 wounds, 0.59 unsaved, 0.44 avg out of action

Hammer - 2 attacks/1 hits
T3 5+: 0.83 wounds, 0.83 unsaved, 0.73 out of action
T3 4+: 0.83 wounds, 0.83 unsaved, 0.73 out of action
T4 3+: 0.83 wounds, 0.69 unsaved, 0.61 out of action

Falchions - 3 attacks/2 hits
T3 5+: 1.33 wounds, 1.33 unsaved, 0.75 avg out of action
T3 4+: 1.33 wounds, 1.11 unsaved, 0.75 avg out of action
T4 3+: 1.00 wounds, 0.67 unsaved, 0.50 avg out of action

Warding Stave - 2 attacks/1.33 hits
T3 5+: 1.11 wounds, 0.93 unsaved, 0.69 avg out of action
T3 4+: 1.11 wounds, 0.74 unsaved, 0.56 avg out of action
T4 3+: 0.89 wounds, 0.44 unsaved, 0.33 avg out of action

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/08/02 21:57:11


Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in us
Guarded Grey Knight Terminator






So... Still falcions on him with a hammer as a close second.

With two psilencers on the table I am running out of points quickly for falcions or hammers.

"Glory in our suffering, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope"
-Paul of Tarsus

If my post seems goofy, assume I am posting from my phone and the autocorrect elf in my phone is drunk again 
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

Yes indeed. A 5-man GK kill team with a justicar and 2 gunners costs 93 points before upgrades.

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

I'm thinking I'll probably take:
Justicar w/sword/halberd - Leader
Grey Knight w/falchions
Grey Knight w/sword/halberd- Combat
Gunner - Psilencer - Demo
Gunner - Psilencer/Incinerator

Basically all your melee guys have 2 attacks, and you have some decent shooting. I think the demo specialist on a psilencer is a great combo since the gun has enough shots to get through a lot of negative modifers and wounding the hidden dude on 2s/3s will clear out obscured models you'd otherwise have to charge.

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in us
Executing Exarch




It looks like you're missing a specialist. Per the rules you can have your leader and 3 other specialists.

I would change your demolitioin specialist to heavy weapons. Unless you are only planning on playing the 1st level skills demolition doesn't really do anything for a psilencer. If anything use demolition on your incinerator then at least the 2nd level pyromaniac skill is also useful to you.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/08/05 01:16:46


 
   
Made in us
Implaccable Grey Knight Paladin




San Diego, CA

I’m probably only doing matched play, so first level of specialists only. So yeah, I’d add heavy to the other psilencer or zealot to a normal dude if I ran an incinerator (thanks for pointing that out).
Here’s why I like demo on a psilencer: it’s 6 shots, S4. So you’re sounding most models on a 3/4, against obscured models or using the tactic for unobscured you’re wounding on a 2/3. With 6 shots you’re still statistically getting 2 hits even at -2, and any successful wounds have a decent chance at taking a model out.

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
 
   
Made in us
Guarded Grey Knight Terminator






Is it two points for a pair of falcions? The book reads 1pt per weapon, and they get two.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Comms and a demo are a must to me.

Anyone think about using a veteran on the other psilencer or incinerator? Does That early move strat count for your movement for the turn or can you move again? Would be nice getting into place with a model and then readying and ensuring you get a nice opening volley.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/08/06 16:47:48


"Glory in our suffering, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope"
-Paul of Tarsus

If my post seems goofy, assume I am posting from my phone and the autocorrect elf in my phone is drunk again 
   
Made in us
Apprehensive Inquisitorial Apprentice



Seattle, WA

What are the thought on fire teams not gaining experience in campaigns without two members in the fire team? Is it worth forgoing one specialist to be able to grow your rank and file grey knights? Or is it better to have one GK than never grows beyond the rank of initiate?

Matched play, one would be a fool not to take all three specialists, but in campaigns...

 
   
Made in us
Executing Exarch




The fire team can grow even if you only have 1 non-specialist. They go up if that non-specialist kills a model in combat. That's why I give my non-specialist the incinerator. He has a decent chance of taking out an enemy per game.
   
Made in us
Stalwart Strike Squad Grey Knight





Hey all, I was doing some Mathhammer on Vortex of Doom and the probability of scoring that sweet sweet D6 Mortal Wounds (instead of D3) on Psychic test of 12+.
I am interested in the affect of casting Vortex of Doom whilst using stratagem Psychic Channelling (1CP) — "when taking a Psychic test roll an additional D6 and discard the lowest result."
Finally, how would the availability of a Reroll stratagem add to this probability?

Here's my findings. Assume you are using a Battle-forged army for the +1 modifier to GK Psychic tests.

8.3%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested.
Spoiler:
Simply the chance of rolling 11+ with 2D6 is
1/36 + 2/36 = 3/36 = 0.083

19.9%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested WITH Psychic Channelling.
Spoiler:
Success Event 1: Rolls 1 & 2 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 2: Rolls 1 & 3 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 3: Rolls 2 & 3 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 4: Two 5's and one 6 are rolled
3/216

Success Event 5: two 6's and one 5 are rolled
3/216

Success Event 6: three 6's are rolled
1/216

SUM OF ALL EVENTS
12+12+12+3+3+1 --> 43/216 = 0.199 = 19.9%


30.9%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested with Psychic Channelling AND availability of a Reroll.
Spoiler:
Successful Reroll Event 1A: Roll 1 is a 5, but others are lower than 5.
1/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 = 16/216
And then you reroll one dice into a 6
16/216 * 36/216 = 576/46656

Successful Reroll Event 1B: Roll 1 is a 6, but others are lower than 5.
1/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 = 16/216
And you reroll one dice into a 5 or 6
16/216 * 72/216 = 1152/46656

Total of 1A and 1B = 1728/46646

Event 2: Same as Event 1, except use Roll 2
1728/46646

Event 3: Same as Event 1, except use Roll 3
1728/46646

SUM OF ALL EVENTS
5184/46656 = 0.11 = 11%

So the availability of a reroll increases your initial odds by 11%
19.9% + 11% = 30.9%


Analysis
For the cost of 1CP, Psychic Channelling effectively more-than-doubles your odds of inflicting D6 Mortal Wounds to the targeted enemy model's unit and any unit within 3" of that model. Not to mention Psychic Channeling significantly increases your odds of successfully manifesting Vortex of Doom (math not shown).

All in all, if you find a great opportunity for Vortex of Doom to affect more than one enemy unit — and those units pose a decent threat — if you have a CP to spare I would recommend using Psychic Channelling to increase your odds at inflicting maximum damage.







This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2018/08/13 01:04:08


 
   
Made in us
Unshakeable Grey Knight Land Raider Pilot




Nairul wrote:
Hey all, I was doing some Mathhammer on Vortex of Doom and the probability of scoring that sweet sweet D6 Mortal Wounds (instead of D3) on Psychic test of 12+.
I am interested in the affect of casting Vortex of Doom whilst using stratagem Psychic Channelling (1CP) — "when taking a Psychic test roll an additional D6 and discard the lowest result."
Finally, how would the availability of a Reroll stratagem add to this probability?

Here's my findings. Assume you are using a Battle-forged army for the +1 modifier to GK Psychic tests.

8.3%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested.
Spoiler:
Simply the chance of rolling 11+ with 2D6 is
1/36 + 2/36 = 3/36 = 0.083

19.9%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested WITH Psychic Channelling.
Spoiler:
Success Event 1: Rolls 1 & 2 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 2: Rolls 1 & 3 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 3: Rolls 2 & 3 add to 11+ (3/36), and Roll 1 is not a 5 or 6 (24/36)
3/36 * 24/36 = 72/1296 = 12/216

Success Event 4: Two 5's and one 6 are rolled
3/216

Success Event 5: two 6's and one 5 are rolled
3/216

Success Event 6: three 6's are rolled
1/216

SUM OF ALL EVENTS
12+12+12+3+3+1 --> 43/216 = 0.199 = 19.9%


30.9%
^Chance to score D6 Mortal Wounds once Vortex of Doom has been successfully manifested with Psychic Channelling AND availability of a Reroll.
Spoiler:
Successful Reroll Event 1A: Roll 1 is a 5, but others are lower than 5.
1/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 = 16/216
And then you reroll one dice into a 6
16/216 * 36/216 = 576/46656

Successful Reroll Event 1B: Roll 1 is a 6, but others are lower than 5.
1/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 = 16/216
And you reroll one dice into a 5 or 6
16/216 * 72/216 = 1152/46656

Total of 1A and 1B = 1728/46646

Event 2: Same as Event 1, except use Roll 2
1728/46646

Event 3: Same as Event 1, except use Roll 3
1728/46646

SUM OF ALL EVENTS
5184/46656 = 0.11 = 11%

So the availability of a reroll increases your initial odds by 11%
19.9% + 11% = 30.9%


Analysis
For the cost of 1CP, Psychic Channelling effectively more-than-doubles your odds of inflicting D6 Mortal Wounds to the targeted enemy model's unit and any unit within 3" of that model. Not to mention Psychic Channeling significantly increases your odds of successfully manifesting Vortex of Doom (math not shown).

All in all, if you find a great opportunity for Vortex of Doom to affect more than one enemy unit — and those units pose a decent threat — if you have a CP to spare I would recommend using Psychic Channelling to increase your odds at inflicting maximum damage.









Thanks for that

What about if you just have the CP re-roll available? If you are short on CP and only had 1 CP to spare, is it worth just reserving one for the re-roll or is the benefit much smaller than psychic channeling?

Because if you get it first time, then theres no need to spend any CP
   
Made in us
Executing Exarch




Don't forget to factor in the fact that you take d3 mortal wounds if you roll a "12" on your 2 dice. I'm really not sure that the reward is worth the risk.
   
Made in us
Guarded Grey Knight Terminator






After playing quite a few kills games so far, I gotta say that grey knights are actually pretty good and it's easy to stack some dangerous high damage output weapons

The only army I have struggled against was a plasma guard army who had an amazing first turn of shooting and the game was over turn 1 (shocker that plasma is good against marines).

I've actually face rolled some of the more "durable" armies. Gk have a very nice damage output and flexible play style.

Lessons learned:
Gk are a shooting army who can assault if need be.
Psybolt is awesome and can really turn the tide early.
Psilencer with demolitions wounds most everything on a 2 (and this model is great as an anchor).
Gk are never shaken but can be broken easy.
I never have the points avail for falcions, so I have swords and halberds mix.
Hug cover and deny as much los as possible. Only make your units visible to what they are targeting.



"Glory in our suffering, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope"
-Paul of Tarsus

If my post seems goofy, assume I am posting from my phone and the autocorrect elf in my phone is drunk again 
   
Made in us
Stalwart Strike Squad Grey Knight





Leo_the_Rat wrote:
Don't forget to factor in the fact that you take d3 mortal wounds if you roll a "12" on your 2 dice. I'm really not sure that the reward is worth the risk.


A good point. I guess you'll have to weigh that risk/reward for each situation. I typically give Vortex to all my Interceptor units, because their mobility sometimes allows them to find great chain-Vortex opportunities. So I'll take the risk of losing 1-3 Interceptors if it increases my chances at dealing multiple D6 mortal wounds to units that are more threatening.

Also consider Psychic Channeling — while it increases your odds of perils on a double 6, similarly decreases your odds of perils on a double 1.

Spartacus wrote:
Thanks for that

What about if you just have the CP re-roll available? If you are short on CP and only had 1 CP to spare, is it worth just reserving one for the re-roll or is the benefit much smaller than psychic channeling?

Because if you get it first time, then theres no need to spend any CP


You could calculate that, but I can't envision a scenario where you're that low on CP yet still want to spend it on a chance at D6 mortal wounds from Vortex.

   
Made in nz
Unshakeable Grey Knight Land Raider Pilot




Nairul wrote:

I can't envision a scenario where you're that low on CP yet still want to spend it on a chance at D6 mortal wounds from Vortex.



Every game because I don't own a Guard battery :(
   
Made in us
Stalwart Strike Squad Grey Knight





Spartacus wrote:
Nairul wrote:

I can't envision a scenario where you're that low on CP yet still want to spend it on a chance at D6 mortal wounds from Vortex.



Every game because I don't own a Guard battery :(


Sure, but I'm saying if you're that low on CP I wouldn't recommend spending a CP re-roll on a Vortex that has already been successfully manifested, just on off-chance you'll turn it into D6 instead of D3 mortal wounds. There are probably more game-deciding rolls to spend your final CP on.
   
 
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