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Here is another one. https://fortune.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-reinfection-fears-grow-cured-patients-test-positive-reactivated-virus/

I’d been reading news aggregators, so shame on me for not checking each source individually.

The point is, people getting reinfected has been a thing since it was still largely confined to Wuhan. No new information has really come forward to change the thinking since that time. Yes, reinfection has possibly happened, but then it could be misdiagnosis, premature discharge, unknown contributory issues, mild immune response being overwhelmed by a much heavier viral load etc etc.

The fact is all people can do is play percentages, and the historic information suggests that assuming immunity is the right call. I mean, people can only get chicken pox once, except sometimes people get it again, but nobody is particularly worried about chicken pox reinfection rates, because, percentage wise, it isn't worth too much concern.

People are worried enough to get shingle shots. Anyway, I hope this Coronavirus is easy to develop an immunity to.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

 Alpharius wrote:
...which will only potentially pan out IF, and only IF, this 'good news' and a general flattening of the curve doesn't lead to Social Distancing being lessened and people trying to 'return to normal' too soon!

That does not sound like a particularly American thing to do at all...

I sense sarcasm...

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
People are worried enough to get shingle shots. Anyway, I hope this Coronavirus is easy to develop an immunity to.

Some people are. Just like some people are concerned about Covid reinfection. That there are people holding a contrary opinion shouldn't detract from following the statistically probable path.

 gorgon wrote:
Although a vaccine may be 2 years away, real treatments could be sooner. And even months of additional study of this bug will help. Lots of ways the distancing is helping.

This is a good point and I should have added it into my list - having effective treatments, therapeutics, etc. will be key in getting back to normal because, as you say, a vaccine is still a long ways off...

On the testing front - a doctor my relative works with tested negative on a "2 day" test result, then positive on a "12 day" test result. I'm guessing the additional test result is due to their being a doctor and having contact with many patients. Unfortunately, they resumed work between the two results

Heck of a lot better to err on the side of caution

What was the time lag between getting the '2 day' test and the '12 day' test?

Could it be as simple as that they had been exposed to the virus between the two tests?

It's two tests of the same sample - from my limited exposure to lab work, "culture" tests with a smaller concentration (i.e. if you're not very sick when tested) can come up negative, then positive if given more time. So, he likely didn't have a very large viral load when taking the test.

Anyway, just wanted to share it as a fyi! I did work on a medical diagnostic, and obviously they're not going to share raw data with the public, but there's often a lot of grey area where you have to make a judgement call on pos/neg, and you establish a minimum criteria for calling a positive.

Obviously, he didn't meet that criteria in the first result, but turns out he was positive on the follow up...


Edit:

It looks like estimates are that up to 1/3 of people may be getting false negatives:

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/questions-about-accuracy-of-coronavirus-tests-sow-worry-11585836001

So basically, the medical advice is to act as if you tested positive (i.e. finish the full length of self quarantine) even if you test negative, if you've experienced any symptoms. Just wanted to share that here - again, better to err on the side of caution, particularly if the rate truly is 1-in-3 false negatives, or anything close to that.

So basically, everyone should self-quarantine now, for 14 days (I guess that would nip this thing quicker!)...or is it everyone with any of the symptoms on the COVID-19 list should self-quarantine for 14 days, regardless of test result?

We really need to get an accurate test - ASAP!

Regarding the test, my reading of those articles is that it's anyone with symptoms and/or likely exposure (although obviously everyone should be social distancing). There's enough uncertainty in the results that people shouldn't take a negative result as a clean bill of health.

So yeah... better testing would obviously be very helpful lol. From reading some other articles just now, it looks like quite a few are being developed - since many medical diagnostic companies have basically dropped everything to work on this.

You can have it but its dormant from what I understand.

US broke 2000 deaths in a day limit. First country so far that has officially broke that one.

tneva82 wrote:
US broke 2000 deaths in a day limit. First country so far that has officially broke that one.

Not really surprising, given the state of their healthcare system (more like lack of).

And as it is US is getting it off lightly compared to size of population unless rate at least doubles...

The U.S. should be compared to all of Europe, though, if looking at simply totals. Things obviously vary massively by region in both places (New York or Italy vs. elsewhere in the region, for example). Thankfully the projections are coming down somewhat with all the social distancing...

If you look whole europe vs US then US should be losing like 2-3 times as much per day and still be off easy...Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, Belgium, Swiss and Netherlands amount to about 4k plus other countries.

US with just 2000 deaths with population over 5 times say Italy which is worst suffering but even at worst was around 1000 deaths shows US is suffering lot less than there was potential. Especially with the extremely slow and half assed response US had to begin with. Suspiciously low numbers.

Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

Some sources predict our (USA) peak could come as early as April 12, 2020 with @ 2,000 deaths that day - with the caveat that things could spike if they cease social distancing measures too early.
Link: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/492189-us-coronavirus-deaths-projected-to-peak-sunday
Link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

I work as a nurse in Saint Louis, MO and most of the providers I speak with think that is a reasonable evaluation.

Stay safe everyone.

Edits due to poor sentence structure. I'm tired and have been working a lot of overtime.

Thanks for all your hard work, complex!!! You guys are amazing

Another 917 deaths reported in the uk, worth remembering these figures are only the deaths in hospitals so the real figure will be higher still

Some uplifting news

https://www.facebook.com/TheArmyPainter/videos/2402071543226167/UzpfSTExNDI3NjQyODYzMjE1OToyOTkxNTI1OTE0MjQwNTE1/

https://www.facebook.com/TheArmyPainter/?__tn__=kCH-R&eid=ARC1OcPZ_tejgVzd-x4yseYHCDtfT211Q4cYSTZmgUtjTOpiAJqEByHkyZ9J1AsIm9Ig69cHwfg5tfXg&hc_ref=ARScpm4F7OioCFwSVozjSs7VEwdZ3e2dfwv0Kon9Qh-8kQCC5gTa-lleBCh0bRu9cVQ&fref=nf

Army painter people are re-purposing their factory to produce hand sanitizer

Nice!

I just bought their Bright Gold to highlight their Greedy Gold. Good stuff, and AP has a metalllics paint set. Also, having good results with AP Quickshade Inks over colored primers so I can paint my miniatures quickly. I painted a halfling wizard and his armored rooster mount with this method. : https://forum.reapermini.com/index.php?/topic/91024-the-assault-groups-halfling-wizard-mtd-foot-on-amoured-rooster/

Anyway, thought I'd post some caps of some coronavirus memes I found in an article...

The WHO issued warnings about the virus in early January, based purely on the fact it was a coronavirus like SARS and MERS, even before it was confirmed to be so dangerous.

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense. But the US hotspot of NY seems no less intense in deaths when you think about the fact that its only 8 mil people and they get as many deaths as entire European countries with larger populations per day. If its spreading as it did in the EU it could get much worse for the US, as it did in the EU, but that all really depends.

Italy got it spreading before it was really noticed and from there to the EU and NY. But since then measures have been put in place which means that NY might bear the brunt of the US.

 mekkiah wrote:
Another 917 deaths reported in the uk, worth remembering these figures are only the deaths in hospitals so the real figure will be higher still

No surprises. Looking out the window all I've seen all done is cars racing, idiots walking up and down to and from shop with booze. Parties in next doors garden with everyone in neighbourhood going round.

And that's just out 1 window.

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense.

Why?

Doesn't the US have tons of international air traffic? Aren't our tourists everywhere? I don't get how the US of all places could be timelapsed behind the rest of the world. I seem to remember the US lagging behind other countries in testing Feb/ first half of March, but surely we haven't been affected later?

My opinion is US got the virus from multiple sources by, at the very latest, early January. I really want to know what everyone else does.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense. But the US hotspot of NY seems no less intense in deaths when you think about the fact that its only 8 mil people and they get as many deaths as entire European countries with larger populations per day. If its spreading as it did in the EU it could get much worse for the US, as it did in the EU, but that all really depends.

Italy got it spreading before it was really noticed and from there to the EU and NY. But since then measures have been put in place which means that NY might bear the brunt of the US.

Unfortunately it doesn't look that way. Thanks to the way the states work, responses varied wildly- California shut down earlier than New York, and so is doing better. Some central states refused to institute any sort of lockdown at all. Ohio locked up tight way early, so is getting off fairly light so far (but that may be changing, they've hit 5000+ cases, but that's a third of some of the neighboring states), but Philadelphia, Detroit and New Orleans are starting to show growth that suggests the next major hot spots. And unfortunately this is a pattern that can repeat over and over again in different areas and different (or the same) cities. And once restrictions start relaxing, it only takes a few cases to start a new fire, or restart the cycle in a city like NYC or LA.

At this point its already everywhere- the lightest hit states are Wyoming and Alaska, and they've already got 200+ cases each. It may end up spreading really fast in some of the central states, despite a relative lack of big cities, because they resisted doing any sort of lockdowns at all, thinking they were safe for being rural and people's rights and whatever.

Yeah, that.

 Alpharius wrote:
We really need to get an accurate test - ASAP!

It won't exist. Period. Unless you want it to cost 100.000$ a pop. Literally every medical/chemical test out there designed to detect minute amounts of anything has uncertainty one way or another - if you want it to detect better, you increase rate of false positives, if you want it to ignore these you get a lot of false negatives. In fact, whole branch of chemists making tests does nothing but tries to establish which way the test errs and how much.

To put things in perspective, one cubic millimeter of virus, divided evenly, has enough virus loads to infect anywhere from 100 million to one billion people. We should be praising the fact we can detect it at all.

tneva82 wrote:
If you look whole europe vs US then US should be losing like 2-3 times as much per day and still be off easy...Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, Belgium, Swiss and Netherlands amount to about 4k plus other countries.

US with just 2000 deaths with population over 5 times say Italy which is worst suffering but even at worst was around 1000 deaths shows US is suffering lot less than there was potential. Especially with the extremely slow and half assed response US had to begin with. Suspiciously low numbers.

USA has population density of 33/km^2. Netherlands has 422/km^2, so do other heavily hit EU regions like north Italy (or Switzerland, where 3/4 of country is just naked rock). For perspective, New York state has 159/km^2. If EU seems 'bad', it's because they are fighting it in environment much worse than even NY, though NY itself makes EU pale in comparison. If USA had EU population density, every single state would look like New York, and half of them would be even worse due to abysmal healthcare systems. As it is, the low density will slow down virus a bit, but will do little to stop it.

 complex57 wrote:
Some sources predict our (USA) peak could come as early as April 12, 2020

What the models ignore, is that it's Easter. Given how many fundamentalists managed to secure no restriction for churches as """essential services""" (and to make it even more depressing, a lot of these issued calls to congregate in tightly packed crowds under various threats or honeyed lies) I am kind of expecting new explosion of cases in two weeks. I wish you were right, but that ain't gonna happen, IMO, the math does not take massive sabotage events into account.