Next few months release dates

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**smiling Assassin**

*Sobz*

I don't see any IG on there.

Why so long?

~sA

**Fishboy**

@Fishboy - if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't continue to drive new product for it. *You* may not be seeing the sales, but GW doesn't keep anything they don't make money on.

I believe somewhere out there (no mice please) there is a sales breakdown per product line. I may be relying on older information (3-4 years ago?) but I can't see a major shift in this in recent time. The reason LOTR is still being sold and marketed has more to do with contractual deals rather than profit. The "force" of the new product was dictated in those contracts stating how many new book releases would be made in the time period. Its not that I wish bad for this game but it is a real strugle for most (apparently not yours) after market dealers to sell the product. The majority of sales deal with loyalty to the story and not the game itself. *I* dont see any sales of GW products but *I* sure do buy a lot

**JohnHwangDD**

Again, if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't renew.

**Kroq Gar**

Squig_herder wrote:Feb is possibly Lizardmen

When and what? And how and why? Need to know dammit!!! Any pics rumours or the like?

**Fishboy**

@John It was a long time renewal that trapped GW into the product. I believe someone else made a similar comment so take it for what it is. Again you need to understand that I am not dinging the product but it DOES cause a monitary draw on the company and its retailers. Ask your local vendor and see if he can show you the numbers.

I do know of some guys trying to run some tournaments to get it going again and a few GW community guys are trying to help em out. They are struggling to get people to the events however. We have even tried to get tournies going in the SE and invested heavily to have 2 people show up. Had more in prizes than they did in their armies heheh.

**Kroq Gar**

Squig_herder wrote:
Feb is possibly Lizardmen

When and what? And how and why? Need to know dammit!!! Any pics rumours or the like?

**JohnHwangDD**

I don't think that LotR will ever generate *tournament* interest. It's just not perceived that way.

LotR seems to be a *collector* "game". If GW really wants to push LotR touranments, they're going to have trouble pushing water uphill...

**Archonate**

JohnHwangDD wrote:Again, if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't renew.

Unless they signed a contract with New Line in which they agreed to support the game for 10 or so years... Which they did. (I think that contract expires with this year though. Finally.)

**MagickalMemories**

I don't know, and I don't PRETEND to know how the LOTR line affects GW's bottom line.
That being said:

Fishboy wrote:
I seem to recall reading (fairly recently, even) that LotR was outselling WHFB.

That made me laugh but I would not mind you finding the article.

The reality of it is that LOTR is a drain on GW and its resources. The game did very well when the movie were still in the theaters. Once those ended things REALLY slowed down. Most independant retailers stock it due to GW requirements and that is usually limited to the starter sets. The game started to strugle and some dimwad signed a new contract to continue the game for another 5-10 years. Most people agree that GW's struggles of the last few years are heavily due to LOTR...I think it is more related to bad decision and LOTR.

A great majority of the models sold for LOTR are actually just for people that are into the LOTR movies. They buy the mini's to paint and put on a shelf. If you sell LOTR mini's in blisters at some type of convention you can sell bunches!!!

I did play the game a few times and the rules are pretty good IIRC but I just was not that into the story line and I think that is the limiting factor of the game.

Oh and by the way....What ever happened to Dark Eldar in Nov/Dec?

You come across as quite knowledgeable. Any chance you can take your own suggestion and post links to the information that gave you this opinion? I'd love to see some hard, cold facts.

On another note, I think LOtR has some SPECTACULAR minis with some SERIOUS promise for both, WHFB and 40K conversions.
Oh... and, please , don't tell me I can't convert them. Already have.
Also, don't tall me they can't be used in OFFICIAL GW events... Already have.

Eric

**Fishboy**

Eric I dont have any info to post and probably would get hammered by GW if I did. It is based on some inside knowledge (although other people seem to know about it and their timelines of appx 10 years was correct) that I was able to obtain when looking to start a store. I dont know if they still post their earnings per system but I do know store owners or investors do/did get that information. Down here in the south it has been pretty available. I think the original contract was 5 years. Now what I can offer is some press releases but please note the dates:

Further sales woe at Games Workshop

Fantasy war games retailer Games Workshop has warned its full year profits would fall short of market expectations after interest in Lord of the Rings – one of its mainstay lines – continued to wane.

The Nottingham-based group, which makes model versions of the trilogy, said revenues for the six months to November 27 had fallen from £71.00 GBP million to £57.10 GBP million and profits before tax tumbled from £7.60 GBP million to £119,000 as the "bubble" created by the Lord of the Rings films continued to deflate.

It released interim figures earlier than scheduled because the group said sales for the five weeks to January 1 indicated a further decline of 17% year-on-year.

Games Workshop warned in July that a "bubble-effect" surrounded the trilogy as fans rushed out to buy associated goods soon after the movies' releases but in 2005, with no new films out, interest in the products declined.

The company said sales in the second half of 2005 were 20% down on the first half, which was "slightly more severe" than expected.

Sales to independent toy and hobby retailers also reduced, notably in the US, it said, where smaller operators were closing and its turnover fell from 27.1 million US dollars (£15.4m) to 21.6 million million US dollars (£12.3m).

To combat the slump Games Workshop said it was developing its Hobby stores, where staff offer instore model painting and gaming lessons.

It is also investing in recruitment and training, improving operational efficiency and sourcing products "cost effectively" from Europe and Asia.

Despite the profits slide, the group intends to "re-establish" sales growth by opening more new stores in 2006 although the locations have not been revealed.

The Games Workshop was established more than 30 years ago by three gaming enthusiasts from London. It now operates through more than 300 Hobby centres and 4,000 independent toy shops internationally, including in the UK, US, Canada, France and Germany and the majority of its models and games are made at plants in Nottingham and Memphis, Tennessee.

Copyright (c) Press Association Ltd 2006, All Rights Reserved

The blame, by the way, has been placed squarely on the Lord of the Rings, and a fall-off in interest in the associated games. This doesn't mean the LotR games are a disaster, just that they're not making as much money as they used to make (these crises and judgements are based on the likelihood of whether the company can continue to grow and justify a premium on its price, not whether it's likely to lose money and go bust). Unfortunately for GW, this provides a great angle for journalists and as an example the Independent business pages have a great picture of a Mumak and some infantry miniatures.

Note this was a News blog based on a Rueters article and is also based in 2006

I could find more with more time but most of the articles and earning reports per system are burried at this time and I really dont feel like looking any further for them. I did find a really interesting article from and investment company that stated GW is missing their target market which I beleive is true as well but way off topic for this forum hehe.

I do agree with the tournament scene and LOTR. I asked our few players and they stated pretty bluntly that they dont play to the tournament scene and that they didnt think the game was really designed for tourny play. It is story line and that is it to them.

I also agree that they have some very good minis for the line. I also have seen several great conversion possabilities and yeah you can cut and past all you want. The problem comes when GW takes photos of your mini. They cant post it on the website or in the magazine due to licensing issues. Dont understand the whole picture there but it still holds true.

**boyd**

JohnHwangDD wrote:Again, if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't renew.

or break their contract. if its cheaper to "buy out" the contract they will do that instead and just stop. I know tons of LoTR players - problem is that they don't play at any gaming stores since they don't need the space. Most of their groups are tighter than the 40k and WFB groups I've been in. The people on dakka believe if they don't play it and people they talk to on a frequent basis don't play it, then it shouldn't be made any more. You've got your blinders on- the revenue has to be there otherwise it would have been cut years ago. If its not self sustaining or at least operating at break even, then it would have been cut and people would be complaining that GW has cut yet another one of their product lines and moved it to the nursing home (specialist games - where GW sends all of their games that have a shorter revenue stream to slowly fade away).

**Ghost in the Darkness**

Heck I played LOTR first which is what got me in to the hobby way back when the firsst movie came out then I made the switch to 40k and warhammer, got out of them except for 40k and am slowly rebuilding a warhammer army. Plenty of people I know at my store play the game but boyd is right they dont need they space o plenty of people play at home but, when it is LOTR night at the store the place has plenty of people and their tournaments always are a big hit especially with the longer players who fins the simpler rules set and low cost to get a full army appealing.

**Ratbarf**

^ Same, I also started in the hooby by buying the Fellowship of the ring set. I also brought my 700 point Uruk-Hai army to Gamesday and there were plenty of players there.

As for the article I will see if I can dig it up.

Some similar ones.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/games-workshop-in-fresh-profit-alert-431016.html

http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/Results2007/downloads/GW_year_end_07.pdf

Couldn't find the original article that I read it from. Though I wouldn't really doubt that it did surpass Fantasy at its peak. It brought in a rather large number of non-wargamers who bought the models as gifts and such to LOTR nerds.

**Ratbarf**

And in my search I found something completely unrelated to OP but interesting none the less.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_Games_in_Middle-earth_(magazine)

**Archonate**

MagickalMemories wrote:On another note, I think LOtR has some SPECTACULAR minis with some SERIOUS promise for both, WHFB and 40K conversions.
Oh... and, please , don't tell me I can't convert them. Already have.
Eric

Since LotR minis are scaled much smaller, I'm getting this funny picture of little Uruk hai with gigantic ork arms and choppas, or an ork with a tiny uruk hai head, big arms with tiny swords and maybe one skinny little leg on a rock so the model doesn't have to lean.

Seriously though, they were scaled smaller to discourage cross converting.

**whitedragon**

Have any of you LOTR haters actually "played" the game? And for the comment about only making miniatures for fans of the movies....you do realize that LOTR was a trilogy of novels first, with almost worldwide recognition? That's alot of "fans".

**Stelek**

JohnHwangDD wrote:@Fishboy - if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't continue to drive new product for it. *You* may not be seeing the sales, but GW doesn't keep anything they don't make money on.

Well that's a damn lie.

GW's list of 'epic fail' is endless.

See, being the manufacturer...when something doesn't sell, ultimately, it goes back to bite GW in the ass.

If you aren't sure how that works, please for heaven's sake take an advanced economic class.

Your nerd-knowledge is a big fail.

JohnHwangDD wrote:Again, if LotR were a drain, GW wouldn't renew.

GW renewed after the bubble burst.

Guess I've burst that bubble, so moving on...

**Stelek**

whitedragon wrote:Have any of you LOTR haters actually "played" the game? And for the comment about only making miniatures for fans of the movies....you do realize that LOTR was a trilogy of novels first, with almost worldwide recognition? That's alot of "fans".

Yes.

I played Rogue Trader in Fantasy Skirts.

I enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed Rogue Trader and Necromunda.

I scaled it up, to 1,000 points per side.

Then I did not like it at all.

AT-43 does the phase concept so much better than this game does, primarily because it scales.

That 1,000 point game took 7 hours, by the way.

Imagine a 2,000 point game.

Oh the excitement. :S

**JohnHwangDD**

So Stelek, naturally, you have the detailed sales and profit information for LotR that show it to be underperforming relative to things like, say, WFB, right?

Because it's totally not like you to make grand pronouncements based on your own inflated ego... :S :S :S

**Pariah Press**

Yeah, Stelek. I'm not going to "take an advanced economics class" because you can't be bothered to post coherently. Oh, and "fail" isn't a noun.

**Anung Un Rama**

But "epic fail" is. At least on the internet

On topic: I have no idea if LotR sells good or bad. I never got into it, I just wasn't interested. What I don't get is how they can keep bringing out new modells and factions. I know Tolkien wrote a lot of stuff, but at some point there's only so much you can sell to a not-diehard fan.

**Polonius**

I dunno. Without knowing any of the specifics of the contract between New Line and GW, but as somebody posted above GW would simply buy out of the contract or simply break it completely if they were losing more money from selling the products then they would simply paying New Line off.

We're left with at least a few options that I can think of:
1) LotR makes money for GW
2) While lotR loses money for GW, it's cheaper to produce and support he product than pay New Line and sell nothing.
3) GW is currently losing money on LotR but hopes to turn it around within the contract life.
4) GW is losing money making and selling LotR, more than they would by breaching the contract, but is simply stupid.

GW might not have the finest grasp on PR or long term planning (although you could argue they hoped the LotR bubble would remained propped up by genuine interest in the game), but it's another to say they are going to make a completely bad financial decision (whether to stay in the New Line contract). Of course, if they signed a really awful contract while being stupid, they may simply be living with it until it expires. IIRC GW is mostly held by institutional Shareholders (banks and funds), so the directorships are elected by businesses (if UK corporate law is anything like the US). Assuming a bulk of the directors are elected by financial institutions, that means that officers/execs are hired by those directors, and so high level financial decisions would be made, if not by people that know what they're doing, at least by people hired by people that know what they're doing.

Let's not forget: there are reasons to keep the LotR contract beyond simply how much profit the range brings GW. If GW opts out, New Line could sell the rights to a competitor for a much lower price (since it's not as valuable now). Giving Mongoose or FASA or even WOTC a crack at the LotR minis license might be something GW is willing to lose money to prevent.

It's probably a safe bet that the LotR license is of value to GW.

**BrookM**

Well, at first GW was bound by contract to crank out everything movie related. Only after the movie fad died down and GW was still stuck with things did they turn to the books and started working on major characters that have been left out (Tom Bimbo and his assistant Gold Finger for example) and worked their way down to obscure characters who just got one or two lines dedicated to them (see: Halbarad). However, this also brought us the rather pleasant looking models such as the knights of Dol Amroth and those gits in the chariots.

All in all the LotR franchise is on its last legs with GW, the release of their Legions of Middle Earth book that allows for big games has shown us that much and the amount of releases has been reduced to a slow trickle, with two blisters of models being released in December. And besides there isn't much that GW can do with the franchise other than crank out what has been written down, the artistic liberties are bound to the source materials.

**Ratbarf**

One thing they could do is revamp the rules for larger battles. Larger battles means more minis. Right now you won't see many armies with more than 75 guys or so if you are lucky.

@ Stelek, how did that 1000 pt battle take 7 hours? I have played a 1500 point battle and it only took 4 and a half. And it was against Moria goblins.

**JohnHwangDD**

@Ratbarf: It is entirely possible that Stelek knows less about LotR than his level of bluster would suggest.

@Polonius: If the contract is such that WotC / FASA / whomever could make *considerably* more money, then they would simply buy out GW's interest by paying GW's cancellation fees.

IOW, if GW is losing $1M annually, but their cancellation fee is $1.5M, but WotC determines that they could make $10M annually, then it's a very simple business decision for WotC to pay GW the $2M to make $8M, and for GW to accept the $0.5M net profit on closeout.

**H.B.M.C.**

Just for the record, FASA doesn't exist anymore DD. They went out of business years ago.

BYE

**Polonius**

JohnHwangDD wrote:@Ratbarf: It is entirely possible that Stelek knows less about LotR than his level of bluster would suggest.

@Polonius: If the contract is such that WotC / FASA / whomever could make *considerably* more money, then they would simply buy out GW's interest by paying GW's cancellation fees.

IOW, if GW is losing $1M annually, but their cancellation fee is $1.5M, but WotC determines that they could make $10M annually, then it's a very simple business decision for WotC to pay GW the $2M to make $8M, and for GW to accept the $0.5M net profit on closeout.

I could have been clearer. If GW opts out, than the license is open, and New Line can sell it again. It will sell for less this time, but a company may think they can make a higher profit, even with less sales, if they pay less for the license up front. Meaning: GW sells $3m in models, has $3m in expenses and $1m in license fees. After the opt out, New Line might only be able to sell the license for$0.25 M, and a company with more efficient production and distribution might decide they can make some money on it. It's all speculation, of course, and probably not true.

**Fishboy**

One thing they could do is revamp the rules for larger battles. Larger battles means more minis.

I have talked to the few LOTR players in our area and they have no interest in this. Is this something LOTR players are interested in from other areas?

As for being a LOTR hater, that would be a false conception when concerning me. I played the game a few times and just did not get into it. Does not mean I hate it...BUT I do hate that fact that it IS a drain on the majority of the independant stores in my area. Maybe you guys on the left coast there play it more but here in the east/Southeast it is a very small group, closet players or not.

I would bet that GW held onto the license due to the fact that they thought the Hobit would come out and boost sales. As for selling to another manufacturer, how would GW handle the selling of the model molds etc... Most hobbiest buisnesses are in struggle mode due to the world economy so I would think finding a buyer right now on a loosing system would be hard to find. Hence GW's desire to finish out the contract and the required books. JMO so dont

me...

**Mad Doc Grotsnik**

LotR. Originally, the cost of procuring the license was projected to be recouped somewhere between Two Towers and Return of the King, probably closer to Return of the King.

Cost was recouped half way through Fellowship Of The Ring.

And although sales have shrunk somewhat without the movies to drive awareness, the range still sells very well, and does indeed out strip Fantasy.

The original License only covered the scenes used in the New Line films, until Tolkein Estates decided the game was a winner, and offered GW the extended license to cover more or less all the works.

Opinion is one thing, but knowing facts is even better. LotR is still a popular game system, with simple but solid rules. Just because you don't like it, doesn't mean others don't.

**George Spiggott**

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:And although sales have shrunk somewhat without the movies to drive awareness, the range still sells very well, and does indeed out strip Fantasy.

This is conjecture on your part GW do not release such figures, although I do not doubt that it is true.

It would be nice if GW widened their portfolio of fully supported games. Since LotR was released it seems that GW sells three games to exactly the same demographic (14 year old male gamers) I can’t help thinking that this is probably their biggest problem.