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 Future War Cultist wrote:

 djones520 wrote:
Erdogan is "safe".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying-jets-and-gunfire-heard-in-ankara1/

Ah darn.

Just mean he hasn't been harmed, not that he hasn't been removed from power. Martyr's are bad.

The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

This is all assuming the coup comes off.

 Ketara wrote:
The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

This is all assuming the coup comes off.

Same thing happened in Egypt. Most people cheered that one.

I thought Erdogan was vacationing out of the country?

Military locking down comms, to include social media in an attempt to prevent any counter-coup/pro-Erdogan forces from organizing/coordinating.

And major US news outlets missed it until it looks like it is a done deal.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Okay. This is huge.
On one hand, if it gets rid of Erdogan, that will be good. But on the other hand, more instability in the region is exactly what we don't need...
Best we can hope for I think is that the coup succeeds and that the military will set Turkey back on the secular, liberal course of Ataturk and then hand over power to civilian authorities again. If the coup fails, Erdogan's wrath will be terrible, his retribution swift.

Liberalism is kind of gaking itself all over these days so even if that happened it isn't a guarantee for anything long-term and that's without fully considering the home-grown Islamists who aren't going to like this at all.


Basically: pre-emptive RIP, countless people.

I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

#BREAKING TURKISH JUSTICE MINISTER SAYS US-BASED IMAM FETHULLAH GULEN'S FOLLOWERS IN MILITARY ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE POWER

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) July 15, 2016

Who's that?

"US based" imam?

o.O

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

Incirlik is nowhere near Istanbul. And the Turkish military is not stupid enough to make a play along those lines.

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

??? what do you mean.


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 djones520 wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

Incirlik is nowhere near Istanbul. And the Turkish military is not stupid enough to make a play along those lines.

Isn't that where the NATO resources are stationed?

 whembly wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

??? what do you mean.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 djones520 wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

Incirlik is nowhere near Istanbul. And the Turkish military is not stupid enough to make a play along those lines.

Isn't that where the NATO resources are stationed?

And the US gets along with the Turkish military a lot better than they got along with Erdogan. Very close mil-to-mil ties at all levels.

And if this stops the Islamization of Turkey it will be a damned good thing.

 Ketara wrote:
What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

Political Science calls it a hybrid regime, but this isn't a new status quo in Turkey. The Turkish military has intervened into Turkish politics about a dozen times since the formation of the Republic. And of course, there's still 1993, where maybe there was a coup, maybe there wasn't.

People in the West would actually be surprised how popular the military can be in countries like Egypt and Turkey for doing this sort of thing. So long as they don't impose harsh martial law and military regimes, and a more democratic government is restored to power, it's often seen as a good thing that protect people from government going rampant.

It kind of tears at me. As an American I'm pretty much hardwired to believe in democracy as a solution to ills, however imperfect it may be. As an academic, I know better than to put stock into that hokus pokus. Erdogan wanted to be a dictator, and he was making progress in getting. Part of me is really happy that the military is jumping in and removing him (me lol typos) to protect the country. Part of me knows that's hokus pokus too. I'll probably have to wait a few years before I can know if I'm really happy or sad that this happened.

 whembly wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

??? what do you mean.


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 djones520 wrote:

 Ashiraya wrote:
I wonder if the US regrets storing nukes in Turkey now.

Incirlik is nowhere near Istanbul. And the Turkish military is not stupid enough to make a play along those lines.

Isn't that where the NATO resources are stationed?

There not idiots.
There not going there

State TV is saying the military is now in control. I'd say this bird is cooked.

 djones520 wrote:

 Ketara wrote:
The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

This is all assuming the coup comes off.

Same thing happened in Egypt. Most people cheered that one.

Yeah, but the military were in power before Morsi, they were just reasserting control. This is a bit different.

 LordofHats wrote:
As an American I'm pretty much hardwired to believe in democracy as a solution to ills, however imperfect it may be.

Isn't the whole point of the second amendment to allow a coup against an oppressive government? This seems like an entirely American event.

 Peregrine wrote:

 LordofHats wrote:
As an American I'm pretty much hardwired to believe in democracy as a solution to ills, however imperfect it may be.

Isn't the whole point of the second amendment to allow a coup against an oppressive government? This seems like an entirely American event.

Edit: Not at all on topic.

 Ketara wrote:
The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

This is all assuming the coup comes off.

That's only if the military is only doing it for their own interests, and not the interests of the people. If the military is taking the side of the people, then it's not necessarily as bad as it looks. Lately, it seems like in some of the more westernized majority-Muslim countries (I'm thinking of Egypt as another example) the military has kind of been functioning as an alternative or a supplement to a checks and balances type system. It may not be the way we operate in the US and western Europe, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily all bad (again, with the caveat that the military acts in support of the people, and not simply the military leaders' own interests or ambitions).


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 Ketara wrote:

 djones520 wrote:

 Ketara wrote:
The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

This is all assuming the coup comes off.

Same thing happened in Egypt. Most people cheered that one.

Yeah, but the military were in power before Morsi, they were just reasserting control. This is a bit different.

Only because they took control from Mubarak, and then allowed elections to take place. This could potentially be the same kind of situation (or not). But we don't know that yet.


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 Peregrine wrote:

 LordofHats wrote:
As an American I'm pretty much hardwired to believe in democracy as a solution to ills, however imperfect it may be.

Isn't the whole point of the second amendment to allow a coup against an oppressive government? This seems like an entirely American event.

That's certainly part of it, but not the only part.

 LordofHats wrote:

People in the West would actually be surprised how popular the military can be in countries like Egypt and Turkey for doing this sort of thing. So long as they don't impose harsh martial law and military regimes, and a more democratic government is restored to power, it's often seen as a good thing that protect people from government going rampant.

If people weren't sick of the military, though, AKP wouldn't have won so many votes. I doubt this is going to be very fun.

Coup d'tat or hors d'oeuvres? Only your taste-buds know for sure.

What if....

Erdogan asks NATO for help....


That could get interesting.

 CptJake wrote:
What if....

Erdogan asks NATO for help....


That could get interesting.

Against whom? There was no foreign aggressor.

Erdogan refused landing privileges at Ankara Airport. Seeking asylum in Germany - per NBC


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 djones520 wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
What if....

Erdogan asks NATO for help....


That could get interesting.

Against whom? There was no foreign aggressor.

NATO is supposed to be against the overthrow of elected member gov'ts, no?

Guess I'm not too familiar with politics in turkey. At the risk of sounding like an idiot, could anyone estimate a 'badness' rank of this event, where a 10 is 'full blown ISIS takeover of country' and a 1 is 'welcome removal of oppressive tyrant'?

Or is it kind of hard to tell at this point?

Just saw a video with folks cheering as military vehicles rolled down the street.

 whembly wrote:

#BREAKING TURKISH JUSTICE MINISTER SAYS US-BASED IMAM FETHULLAH GULEN'S FOLLOWERS IN MILITARY ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE POWER

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) July 15, 2016

Who's that?

"US based" imam?

o.O

Gulen is to Erdogan what Emmanuel Goldstein is to Big Brother. A more or less imaginary enemy of the state leading this huge conspiracy that is behind everything going wrong in the country.

 Kap'n Krump wrote:
Guess I'm not too familiar with politics in turkey. At the risk of sounding like an idiot, could anyone estimate a 'badness' rank of this event, where a 10 is 'full blown ISIS takeover of country' and a 1 is 'welcome removal of oppressive tyrant'?

Or is it kind of hard to tell at this point?

I would go with 3 at this point. It is NOT an DaIsh take over. The military is secular and disliked Erdogan's move towards Islamization.

EDIT: I read your scale wrong, thinking 1 was DaIsh take over... Sorry

 Kap'n Krump wrote:
Guess I'm not too familiar with politics in turkey. At the risk of sounding like an idiot, could anyone estimate a 'badness' rank of this event, where a 10 is 'full blown ISIS takeover of country' and a 1 is 'welcome removal of oppressive tyrant'?

Or is it kind of hard to tell at this point?

Let me jut get my history book from the future...

 Kap'n Krump wrote:
Guess I'm not too familiar with politics in turkey. At the risk of sounding like an idiot, could anyone estimate a 'badness' rank of this event, where a 10 is 'full blown ISIS takeover of country' and a 1 is 'welcome removal of oppressive tyrant'?

Or is it kind of hard to tell at this point?

Kind of hard to tell at this point I think, but it probably won't take incredibly long to find out. It could be below 5. It could be way over (but definitely not 10 if 10 is a ISIS/Daesh) takeover.

 Ketara wrote:
The problem here is that like him or not, Erdogan WAS democratically elected. Sure he wanted to be a dictator, but he isn't one yet.

What this says is that if the public elects someone the military disagrees with, they'll remove him. That effectively means that any elected politician now rules at the sufferance of the military, and can be removed if he irritates them. In other words, it ceases to be a democracy.

Turkish democracy always had that nod-from-the-military shtick going. It wasn't always obvious, but it never went away.

Rosebuddy wrote:

 LordofHats wrote:

People in the West would actually be surprised how popular the military can be in countries like Egypt and Turkey for doing this sort of thing. So long as they don't impose harsh martial law and military regimes, and a more democratic government is restored to power, it's often seen as a good thing that protect people from government going rampant.

If people weren't sick of the military, though, AKP wouldn't have won so many votes. I doubt this is going to be very fun.

The thing is that in Turkey there is this huge divide between conservative rurals (who tend to be pro-islamist and huge Erdogan fans) and secular urbanites. The Turkish military tends to share the same values as the urban population (in fact, they are often seen as the guardian of those values). So that means that while a large portion of the population may be fed up with the army as it opposes their values and their elected government, there is another smaller but more influential part of the population that tends to see the army as champions of Ataturk's secular principles (which undoubtedly is how the Turkish military likes to see itself too) that is now taking down an out-of-control government.
How much fun it is going to be depends on how much of the army is behind the coup and on what part is still loyal to Erdogan.