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 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
Psychology Matters…which is why customers will quit buying product at all if they feel ripped off, and even a slight loss of discount that doesn’t add up to much actual money can have an outsize impact, because many customers are fed up.

Our local market's are looking exactly like this.

The local FLGS I usually go to is starting to fatten up their second hand piles, as people who've gotten word on the 10th edition upcoming are pretty mad about it, considering that 8th- 9th wasn't well appreciated. The fix is in, so to speak.

Second shop to mention has pretty much just kept GW on hand for specifics sales, and he doesn't go out of his way to get you anythung, unless you put about half down, first.

Third shops has drunk the proverbial Kool-Aid, and this ass-clown's pricings are ranking up there with the National Debt.- $55.00- $60 for special characters, 60 to 90.00 for boxed sets... (needless to say, his stock is full...)

We saw the same thing happen in a fishbowl to Privateer Press, BTW. They pulled that crap they pulled on the tail end of Second Edition, and the market bottomed out, and everyone dropped WarmaHordes to the wayside like a bad date.

Wyrd, they pulled it as well, and never recovered the trust, because they pulled theirs too quickly, and that guy in charge was a nutter, when people warned him in the beginning.

I'm not saying the Sky Is Falling, but it is a cloudy day, right about now, and the sky's don't look good if GW continues past the breaking point in outright treating the customer base like shills.

My own gaming purchases have me going between game systems, and looking at trimming my fat, for both cleaning up the room of shame, and just moving on to other systems. Infinity has finally got to the painting table, after a two year lul, where I've had it in boxes, but finally had a slot to start on a small base squad of some Adriana.

I guess we'll have to wait till. What. Financial statement for 2024 to see what effects this has on GW?

It is hard because we will never see the margin between what they get and what they COULD have gotten. The effect will be similar to giving up on compounding interest; exponentially greater as time goes in.

For example I don't think it is a stretch to say the company could easily be double the size it is now if Kirby had quit in 2010*.


*Which is the real kick in the nads for him, heh. Imagine working for the better part of a decade only to realize you would have made -more- money staying home and doing nothing!

I predict they will have made as much profit or more as the last report. People growl (at most) but that wallet still keeps getting pulled out. Nothing is going to change

I can think of two acquaitances that grumble non-stop about GW prices, yet every time something new for SM arrives at the shop they always go "give me two boxes!"

M.

 privateer4hire wrote:
I predict they will have made as much profit or more as the last report. People growl (at most) but that wallet still keeps getting pulled out. Nothing is going to change

The reason this move from GW feels particularly evil is because they're raising the price for businesses, not the end consumer.

Instead of raising the price to customers by 2.5%, they're trying to pull the same revenue by raising sales to independents by 5% (because independents make up about 50% of their sales). For stores that already offer a discount, they'll have to offer less of a discount and probably lose sales volume. For stores that already charge RRP, they'll lose revenue per sale, maybe they'll pick up more sales if people move away from discounters, but enough to make up for the drop in margin? Doubt it.

But because it's affecting stores instead of customers, it's probably not going to have an effect unless stores start saying "feck this, the margins are so slim it's not worth carrying GW kits any more". Maybe that'll happen, probably not.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Miguelsan wrote:
I can think of two acquaitances that grumble non-stop about GW prices, yet every time something new for SM arrives at the shop they always go "give me two boxes!"

M.

One of the weird things about plastic models, you can think they're far too expensive, but unless you're really poor you can still buy them because overall it's overall still a pretty cheap hobby.

So I'm sure there's many people that genuinely think it's too expensive, but it's not so expensive they are going to give up something they enjoy.

Of course there's also quite likely a lot of people who complain about the prices, briefly, then leave, then you don't hear them constantly complaining about the prices because they're now absent. They're not hanging around stores or on internet forums complaining about the hobby because they are no longer actively participating.

It's effectively "survivorship bias", you're only analysing the people who are still around and complaining because the ones that actually quit aren't present to analyse

And their money in flow seems to improve after every price increase. So the folks who left seem to be getting coverage from those new folks and those who remain.

 privateer4hire wrote:
I predict they will have made as much profit or more as the last report. People growl (at most) but that wallet still keeps getting pulled out. Nothing is going to change

The 2010s made it abundantly clear this is not how it works. But I think we all know that really, hyperbole is just such a lure though

Sure. It’s just hyperbole. Different situation back then with some real competition for them at the time. Competition like privateer press that’s essentially negligible nowadays. And x-wing first edition was doing really well. But not so much with the new edition.

And GW makes self aware jokes now. Has social media engagement to at least a minimal level. And they gave people plastic sisters. And squats are back! Along with blood bowl, necrominda and the old world is waiting in the wings.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:


One of the weird things about plastic models, you can think they're far too expensive, but unless you're really poor you can still buy them because overall it's overall still a pretty cheap hobby.

So I'm sure there's many people that genuinely think it's too expensive, but it's not so expensive they are going to give up something they enjoy.

Of course there's also quite likely a lot of people who complain about the prices, briefly, then leave, then you don't hear them constantly complaining about the prices because they're now absent. They're not hanging around stores or on internet forums complaining about the hobby because they are no longer actively participating.

Not necessarily applicable here.
When people stop buying GW they often mean from GW and not from ebay.
In the Kirby years I effectively soft boycotted GW, but collected the armies and was active here on Dakka.
Pricing customers out of the purchase market doesn't necessary price them out of the hobby, miniatures do have a sell by date and when GW does retire model lines or equipment combos in favour of current stock that only makes ex-customers to adapt.
I reckon there are a lot of Guard players, who do not identify as Astra Militarum players, who are adapting their squads to the new equipment restrictions deliberately without going through a storefront to do so.

40K is a big hobby and there are many long term players who have large collections and are no longer active spenders at GW. Many, many, of them are on Dakka.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

It's effectively "survivorship bias", you're only analysing the people who are still around and complaining because the ones that actually quit aren't present to analyse

Darwinism in design.

Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

 Orlanth wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:


One of the weird things about plastic models, you can think they're far too expensive, but unless you're really poor you can still buy them because overall it's overall still a pretty cheap hobby.

So I'm sure there's many people that genuinely think it's too expensive, but it's not so expensive they are going to give up something they enjoy.

Of course there's also quite likely a lot of people who complain about the prices, briefly, then leave, then you don't hear them constantly complaining about the prices because they're now absent. They're not hanging around stores or on internet forums complaining about the hobby because they are no longer actively participating.

Not necessarily applicable here.
When people stop buying GW they often mean from GW and not from ebay.
In the Kirby years I effectively soft boycotted GW, but collected the armies and was active here on Dakka.
Pricing customers out of the purchase market doesn't necessary price them out of the hobby, miniatures do have a sell by date and when GW does retire model lines or equipment combos in favour of current stock that only makes ex-customers to adapt.
I reckon there are a lot of Guard players, who do not identify as Astra Militarum players, who are adapting their squads to the new equipment restrictions deliberately without going through a storefront to do so.

40K is a big hobby and there are many long term players who have large collections and are no longer active spenders at GW. Many, many, of them are on Dakka.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

It's effectively "survivorship bias", you're only analysing the people who are still around and complaining because the ones that actually quit aren't present to analyse

Darwinism in design.

There's no one simplification that covers all people.

There's gamers who complain about the prices and keep buying.

There's gamers who complain about the prices and stopped buying from GW but kept buying from discounters.

There's gamers who complain about the prices and stopped buying new but kept buying used.

There's gamers who complain about the prices and moved to different games or even completely different hobbies.

There's gamers who complain about the prices and left entirely.

There's also newer people who haven't been around long enough to experience the Kirby years and the LotR bubble and whatever.

You might fall into one of those categories, but survivorship bias just means there's a segment of the people that you're missing since they're no longer present to count.

Personally, I didn't buy anything from GW for years, and was maybe only slightly active in the online community and not at all in the local community... but GW coaxed me back somewhat with specialist games where the prices and massive amount of building and painting armies is somewhat mitigated versus WHFB/AOS/40k.

Everyone has their own story that might be unique or shared, trying to figure out how that feeds into revenue, it's always going to be a massive oversimplification unless you could somehow gather a lot of data, including data on people who are no longer active in the community.

 Pacific wrote:
Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

So your “friends” aren’t likely to apply for as many credit cards as they can find, max the credit limit every month on each, pay back the absolute minimum, then when the deals start popping up again, shuffle them all around between different “zero interest on transfers” deals like swapping cars mid-ride on a dodgems rink?

Tyel wrote:
Ultimately Scalping is exploiting the law of one price. Within reason GW or FLGS have to sell to everyone at one price. But as we see in this thread, the value people assign to such things is all over the place. There will be some people who really want certain things. So if you can buy that stock and find those people, you can make the profit on the difference. But if those people can get the product at the regular price, they will do that and not buy from you.
.

Nope. One price isn't culprit. Hell it's been shown in this thread MULTIPLE times there ISN'T one price for GW models(the discounters are leech yes? There's no discount if it's one price...IF you have same kit for 85e, 90e, 95e or 100e how is it one price?).

Scalping exploits SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

If there's limited supply scalping works.

If there's unlimited supply scalping fails big time.

One price isn't relevant. There isn't one price for GW products as is. What there is however is limited supply for certain items and THOSE scalpers scalp. Scalpers aren't buying and selling repulsor tanks. Those GW keeps producing more. They are in for the launch box etc. Because demand exceeds supply. So scalper getting those will mean there will be people who want the box but can't get outside scalper. Unlike repulsor which he can order from GW/FLGS at discount. Why would anybody buy kit from scalper for over RPP when there's multiple shops selling below RRP? As there isn't one price...

 Mr_Rose wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

So your “friends” aren’t likely to apply for as many credit cards as they can find, max the credit limit every month on each, pay back the absolute minimum, then when the deals start popping up again, shuffle them all around between different “zero interest on transfers” deals like swapping cars mid-ride on a dodgems rink?

Not quite sure what point you're making here but I suspect you've made the classic internet blunder of making up a guy in your head and then getting mad about him.

tneva82 wrote:
One price isn't relevant. There isn't one price for GW products as is. What there is however is limited supply for certain items and THOSE scalpers scalp. Scalpers aren't buying and selling repulsor tanks. Those GW keeps producing more. They are in for the launch box etc. Because demand exceeds supply. So scalper getting those will mean there will be people who want the box but can't get outside scalper. Unlike repulsor which he can order from GW/FLGS at discount. Why would anybody buy kit from scalper for over RPP when there's multiple shops selling below RRP? As there isn't one price...

Well yes - but I think you are just stating my point from the other direction. Demand tends to be a function of price - certainly for something like Warhammer.

Let's say GW has 1000 starter boxes.
What you'd expect to find is that some people would pay £200, some £180, some £150, some £100, some £80, some £50, some wouldn't buy it at any price etc.

If GW set the price at £200, and there are exactly 1000 people are willing to buy at that price, then they are fine. A Scalper however is not. They could buy at £200, hoping to find someone willing to pay even more - but they are likely to struggle because as we've seen, only 1000 are willing to pay £200 (or more). So they have likely got hold of their boxes - or aren't interested at paying a higher price.
Now lets say GW set the price at £100. Instead of 1000 people willing to buy, there are now 5000 willing customers. But there are still only 1000 boxes. And we know 1000 of them "would have" been happy to pay £200. So if the Scalpers can get hold of the product at £100, they can try to find people from that 1000 who missed out and are now happy to pay £200 to buy it from the Scalper - as they would have done from GW.

If GW could have some sort of auction system they'd be able to identify the price where supply and demand match - i.e. when the product reaches "one price" (which is basically what the Scalpers/ebay etc are doing). But they can't do that, hence why the mismatch occurs.

 Mr_Rose wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

So your “friends” aren’t likely to apply for as many credit cards as they can find, max the credit limit every month on each, pay back the absolute minimum, then when the deals start popping up again, shuffle them all around between different “zero interest on transfers” deals like swapping cars mid-ride on a dodgems rink?

That's a really bad plan.

It's indeed a question of fighting for the battles that actually matter, not the little meaningless skirmishes like this topic.

GW modifying the rules for independant stores is just a consequence of the whole world economy being bad - not even talking about the ugly situation in UK. Yes, their margins will be lower and that will have an effect on the prices the'll sell to their own customers.

Mantic Games would love to do that too, but since they are dependant of independant stores to broadcast their products because they don't own their own dedidacted stores like GW, they can't. Still they had to rise their prices too. So it's not a scam...it's a general theme, inflation everywhere and production costs aren't making it better. All companies try to find tricks anywhere they can to reduce their own losses, and it's always at the cost of another party. Capitalist snake keeps eating its own tail till the end.

About GW products, yes they're expensive and yes they're not made for the poor people who can't afford a budget for plastic miniature drugs. Some people litterally put themselves in debt for their passion, sure, but that's not the general rule. In majority, the reason why people keep buying is simple : they have more money than others. Bluntly put : we were never equals amongst hobbyists because we don't have the same revenues. That's the key problem in the whole world here. Fight for that instead, it's much more constructive AND it really solves a lot of problems when achieved in reality.

Here, keeping beating the old "GW is evil" horse ? In best situation, GW dies but another company takes its place and does exactly the same things...because you didn't beat capitalism first and since it will be still around, it will still produce the same problems, again and again.

As for me, I must say I basically stopped buying GW products except for special cases because now that I have a 3D printer, I can't help but always think "I can buy a whole bottle of resin for that price that'll give me five times the value in miniatures". But that doesn't mean I stopped collecting more miniatures that I'll ever need in my life, or even five of them...

If I was thinking more about the reality of building, painting and taking time to play games with my miniatures...the pace of releases every week is way too much and too fast for my own free time to be able to handle all of that. That also counts a lot, in the end.

In the end, maybe because I'm becoming older, I do tend to be more selective on what I buy. In fact, lower quality products with cheap prices do tend to get in the way of not buying impulsively, because you can justify "hey look it's cheap so I must absolutely not miss that ! (even if I don't need that at all and will never have the time to build, paint and play a fifth army of 200 miniatures).

GW is walking on eggshells.

I think that GW increasing the trade sales pricing but keeping retail pricing the same shows that they're aware they've pushed retail prices as far they can (for now). Under the current economic climate if GW were to push retail prices any higher, I think they know they'll see some serious consequences.

Adding to the issue is an edition that has pandered so hard to the competitive cupcake, it has driven away a huge swath of customers.

The pandemic saw a wave of sales as hobbyists were locked in their homes, flush with cash, but now that we can return to our LGS's to play; us narrative players are returning to a game that's too competitive, an influence that's too competitive and a player base that's too competitive. A competitive cupcake that is driving new, prospective and narrative players (and their money) away.

GW can survive perfectly fine without competitive players; they've done just fine without them for 25+ years. GW does not make money on tournaments or quantity of games played. GW will wither and die without the narrative players and new recruits. Privateer Press is a cautionary tale that should be heeded.

Pricing increases are something we've all weathered many times before. The competitive cupcake is the more threatening issue. It has become lethal, and needs cut out.

 oni wrote:
Adding to the issue is an edition that has pandered so hard to the competitive cupcake, it has driven away a huge swath of customers.

The pandemic saw a wave of sales as hobbyists were locked in their homes, flush with cash, but now that we can return to our LGS's to play; us narrative players are returning to a game that's too competitive, an influence that's too competitive and a player base that's too competitive. A competitive cupcake that is driving new, prospective and narrative players (and their money) away.

I see this banded about a lot and I wonder if anyone has any data to support the claim. I'm not disagreeing that the game is certainly becoming a pain to follow with all the extra stuff to remember and I gave up due to the truly abysmal balance between Codexes but any time I go past my local GW on game nights or get chatting with the staff, it's always full and their signup sheets are as well. The shop doesn't do regular's nights and it's all about getting people into Warhammer and then letting them loose to the many gaming shops the city has, so it has to be new players/hobbyists. Anecdotal, I know, but I just wondered if this is just the normal grouching (very justified IMO) or if some groups had done surveys and stuff.

Adding to the issue is an edition that has pandered so hard to the competitive cupcake, it has driven away a huge swath of customers.

Seems a swath of competitive players have replaced the swath of narrative players I am afraid to report. So in the end GW really doesn't care as long as they are not losing money directly.

I see this banded about a lot and I wonder if anyone has any data to support the claim. I'm not disagreeing that the game is certainly becoming a pain to follow with all the extra stuff to remember and I gave up due to the truly abysmal balance between Codexes but any time I go past my local GW on game nights or get chatting with the staff, it's always full and their signup sheets are as well. The shop doesn't do regular's nights and it's all about getting people into Warhammer and then letting them loose to the many gaming shops the city has, so it has to be new players/hobbyists. Anecdotal, I know, but I just wondered if this is just the normal grouching (very justified IMO) or if some groups had done surveys and stuff.

What I think a lot of people don't understand is that the Matched Play system created a united language for players regardless of how good/bad people consider it. It is so unified that you can immediately have a pick up game without discussing the finer details of the game. I think a lot of people underestimate how strong this is when it comes to getting people into this system. You learn the basics once and you're off into the 41st millenium. It is, I think, one of the core reasons the game has been growing for the past years. So I'd argue that the game has grown rather than contracted. Matched players also truck along rather nicely with GW's plan as they tend to be more flexible as long as everyone adheres to the core system.

Narrative play, however, is a convoluted mess. I've played my fair share of narrative over the years and the problem is that it is difficult to get it into place where everyone can enjoy themselves. It requires navigating different personalities, egos, and desires, and even after 1-2 games under a certain disagreement it can still dissolve as one or two players in the group are unhappy with how things are. Narrative play requires dedication and conviction, and those are not things GW can sell or enforce. They can, however, sell you a shared language pack that everyone can play according to. Narrative groups also die and lose interest so I'd argue that the churn can be quite high in casual narrative players.

To be honest I am mostly discussing the diaspora where I live. The players who play the most and keep on playing year after year are the Matched Play people. The Narrative people tend to just switch between whatever strikes their fancy.

 Eldarsif wrote:

Adding to the issue is an edition that has pandered so hard to the competitive cupcake, it has driven away a huge swath of customers.

Seems a swath of competitive players have replaced the swath of narrative players I am afraid to report. So in the end GW really doesn't care as long as they are not losing money directly.

Anecdotal again, but in my local area a lot of narrative-focused players have switched from 40k to HH & Titanicus. That started well before 9th though.

I would not call it competitive chancer, but if you made a break it is very difficult to get back into the game and catch up with all the releases and changes
not like you start playing narrative or crusade, don't play for a year and than just continue were you stopped

but this is more because of how GW handles changes and releases and less because of the competitive scene

@Eldarsif: Matched Play and competitive play are not mutually exclusive. Matched Play is not the problem. It is a self-aggrandizing player base that creates the illusion of superiority for meaningless affirmation.

I agree that it's great to have a standard mode of play that makes pickup games easier and Matched Play can definitely provide this. I also agree that the current Narrative Play mode is messy, has too much overhead and in general was a non-starter from day one, but when I refer to narrative play, I'm not specifically referring to the Narrative Play rules, but rather that meticulous balance is not needed for the game to be enjoyable.

@Gert: It's been my experience and the experience of a lot of people I know that Warhammer stores (official GW stores) foster a narrative / non-competitive community as their in-store policies tend to push things in this direction. Generally, by limiting game size, time duration and having a strong awareness of new and unexperienced players. Warhammer store events tend to be things like Mega-battles to promote community and escalation leagues to boost sales - both of which are rather non-competitive.

My point being, if the Warhammer stores are flooded with people, but the LGS's are empty, it's likely because players are flocking to and can expect to enjoy themselves more in the Warhammer stores non-competitive environment.

Now where's that guy that came in and crapped all over the thread starting this 13 pages of BS discourse over his inane ramblings?


Odd.

ccs wrote:

 Mr_Rose wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

So your “friends” aren’t likely to apply for as many credit cards as they can find, max the credit limit every month on each, pay back the absolute minimum, then when the deals start popping up again, shuffle them all around between different “zero interest on transfers” deals like swapping cars mid-ride on a dodgems rink?

That's a really bad plan.

Wow i feel called out!

Economic times are hard, any most people expect them to get worse. Spending on hobbies will take a hit and i'm sure GW are aware of this (probably already seeing reduced sales) This move seems to be them trying to increase their margin without reducing sales, but as others have pointed out if third party retailers have to decrease the discount they offer sales will be hit.

 Mr_Rose wrote:

 Pacific wrote:
Its arguable that the UK (and perhaps other places) having an economy in recession will have more of an impact than a price change of this nature, and thats why sales will drop next year along with everything else.

Friends of mine who, once they have paid rent and energy bills have absolutely no spare money for luxury goods. It doesn't matter how addicted you are to plastic marines that equation won't change.

So your “friends” aren’t likely to apply for as many credit cards as they can find, max the credit limit every month on each, pay back the absolute minimum, then when the deals start popping up again, shuffle them all around between different “zero interest on transfers” deals like swapping cars mid-ride on a dodgems rink?

Im not sure I get the use of the inverted commas sorry.

I have heard of people having to do this just to say afloat financially and for basics: food, rent, energy bills. Its an awful situation to be in and I think happens to more people than we realise. Hopefully they wouldn't be silly enough to blow it on wargames, although you have to say as well how sad it is when people don't have enough money for even some basic luxury items.

I'm surprised she hasn't mentioned the new way of how product range update works for retailers. Before this, retailers would get a full refund for all of the products that were being taken out. Right now, GW will provide refund for maybe 5-6 products. The rest you just pretty much buy from them and good luck selling it. And the new products that are coming in cost around 1k+ euros to add.

On the funny side, any bets that ForgeWorld will increase the msrp by 5% yet again?

It wouldn't surprise me if FW jacked their pricing to set expectations for upcoming plastic kits.

FW: "Whats that? Raise our prices? Your wish is our command!"