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2012/05/04 04:35:23
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
By major, I mean at a minimum, a continent spanning conflict on par with World War I in which the majority of nations are involved in the conflict.
I'm not really sure if there will ever be another major war among humans ever again. Even though human nature is arguably predicable, it is impossible to really fathom what the world will be like 20, 50, let alone 100 years from now due to the current rapid rate of technological advancement and global communication breakthroughs. Some science fiction authors did predict a global communication network long before the dawn of the internet and a certain story (I don't recall the name) even described the results of such a network on humans with startling accuracy. Despite this, no one really could have imagined a hundred years ago that the internet would even exist, let alone reach the point it as at now, especially with portable devices allowing a near constant connection at all times.
With that said, I think the fear of nuclear reprisal will prevent major powers, EU nations, Russia, China, and the US to ever engage in an open war with one of those other nations. If such a war did occur within the next ten years I think it would be a result of an Israel-Arab conflict or India-Pakistan conflict.
Some people always talk about a China-US war, but I think the combination of joint economic reliance on one another, fear of nuclear reprisal, and China's technologically inferior military (it will take them at least a decade to catch up with the US) will prevent such an event from occurring in the near future.
Several of you are much more knowledgeable about global politics, so I'd appreciate hearing your opinions.
I can't see a major war between anyone. We all know how expensive they can be.
Oh yeah, but I forgot about Israel and the followers of the Religion of peace.
Those fethers are gonna go at it with hammer and tongs.
We are arming Syrian rebels who support ISIS, who is fighting Iran, who is fighting Iraq who we also support against ISIS, while fighting Kurds who we support while they are fighting Syrian rebels.
2012/05/04 06:15:51
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
I predict Lichtenstein being invaded by feral Wiener dogs.
Other than that, though, I question how big of a war could break out between all the major players given how economically interdependent the entire planet has become.
Drink deeply and lustily from the foamy draught of evil.
W: 1.756 Quadrillion L: 0 D: 2
Haters gon' hate.
2012/05/04 07:02:30
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Monster Rain wrote:I predict Lichtenstein being invaded by feral Wiener dogs.
Other than that, though, I question how big of a war could break out between all the major players given how economically interdependent the entire planet has become.
Economic interdependance actually increases the chances exponentially.
2012/05/04 07:04:35
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Unless someone were sure that they were going to be able to conquer the entire planet and pillage its resources going to war with people that owe you a lot of money isn't a smart move. I'm willing to read you reasoning on this, though.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/04 07:05:05
Drink deeply and lustily from the foamy draught of evil.
W: 1.756 Quadrillion L: 0 D: 2
Haters gon' hate.
2012/05/04 07:39:13
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Some people always talk about a China-US war, but I think the combination of joint economic reliance on one another, fear of nuclear reprisal, and China's technologically inferior military (it will take them at least a decade to catch up with the US) will prevent such an event from occurring in the near future.
.
I agree - China is making too much money at the moment, and other than increased belligerence within their own zone of influence (the South China sea for instance), a head to head conflict would be unthinkable. The worlds economy would fall on its bum instantly, and I think both powers would take whatever steps necessary to prevent an escalation.
With that said, I think the fear of nuclear reprisal will prevent major powers, EU nations, Russia, China, and the US to ever engage in an open war with one of those other nations. If such a war did occur within the next ten years I think it would be a result of an Israel-Arab conflict or India-Pakistan conflict.
Yes I think that currently the Middle East and Western Asia represents the most unstable region of the globe. Even if such a war was not intended, there exists the potential for a mistake to be made and then the countries involved to be dragged in to a war - this is compounded by the ownership of Nuclear weapons.
We've got nearly 90 years left. It's kinda hard to say where we'll be 80 years from now with any degree of accuracy. As has been said, though, we've got a pretty bad track record as a species.
DC:80SG+M+B+I+Pw40k97#+D+A++/wWD190R++T(S)DM+
htj wrote:You can always trust a man who quotes himself in his signature.
2012/05/04 09:05:01
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
I actually find the potential for conflict the highest in the Middle East and South America. I don't see a Middle Eastern conflict being particularly large though. A South American one depending on the course of upcoming decades could be quite significant. EDIT: Oh, and of course India vs China.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2012/05/04 09:06:05
Unless someone were sure that they were going to be able to conquer the entire planet and pillage its resources going to war with people that owe you a lot of money isn't a smart move. I'm willing to read you reasoning on this, though.
Well, people said that it was practically impossible for Germany and the British Empire to go to war, for the same reasons, at the turn of the 20th century. Less than two decades later, you have the Somme, Verdun etc.
Just saying.
Also, I'm going to put it out there and say there will be a major middle east conflict within the next decade. From what I hear, the British military will soon be rehearsing an attack (or at least part of an attack) on one of the countries bordering Israel. Obviously can't be too specific because I don't want anyone to get into trouble, but it isn't Iran (uh, which doesn't actually border Israel ). My guess would be that they're concerned that in the event of a war between Israel and Iran, several of Israel's neighbours would have a swing at them. I will say this - I was very surprised when I heard which country it was.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/04 09:44:18
Well it would be a waste to have all these toys and not use them.
We're coming to get you Argentina!
Then we can start on Africa again, they've had their chance. It's about time the Public schoolboys took over again, we do like our (your) diamonds and King William will need some fething big ones for his coronation crown!
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
2012/05/04 10:30:10
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Bromsy wrote:I see a South American Union invading Panama to seize the Canal and the economic power therein. I see the USA possibly disagreeing. If they do ...
call it 2050s
Lots of Chinese influence in the canal zone, they may have something to say about folks from further south taking over.
There are lots of potential conflicts out there, and when the OP talks about war across a continent, I submit a look at Africa right now gives a glimpse of something close, and it will get worse there in the next few decades. Will it break out nicely into two definable sides like WW2 kind of did? Nope. But it will be violence across a continent.
Middle East hint: The 'Arab Spring' ain't over, and it doesn't end nicely or easily.
Aisia: China is has internal pressure that is going to require an external release. Not saying it is a war with the US, but you are going to see (and are already seeing) rising tensions wich will lead to violence.
Every time a terrorist dies a Paratrooper gets his wings.
2012/05/04 11:15:52
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Monster Rain wrote:I predict Lichtenstein being invaded by feral Wiener dogs.
Other than that, though, I question how big of a war could break out between all the major players given how economically interdependent the entire planet has become.
None will stand before the awesome might of Dachshundskrieg.
Oh I thought war will break out between the major powers within 10-15 years. It just a question of which major power. China is pretty much claiming a new East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere. India is becoming a power. Brazil is a power. To quote Agent Smith: It is inevitable.
1. Doesn't mean the US has to be involved. 2. When the EU breaks up, how long before Germany gets antsy and invades France out of habit?
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2012/05/04 11:20:39
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
The centre of a massive brood chamber, heaving and pulsating.
Hmm. I can forsee Israel and various Arab states fighting, with the US taking Israel's side. North Korea and China might decide to attack South Korea and Japan, although I doubt that conflict would spread outside of Asia. If it did happen, it would end either with Japan and South Korea being completely overrun and enslaved, or with China and North Korea being humiliated, and possibly being taken under new managenent ala Japan after WW2. The conflict might drive Japan and South Korea towards a better relationship, but I wouldn't count on it.
Squigsquasher, resident ban magnet, White Knight, and general fethwit.
buddha wrote: I've decided that these GW is dead/dying threads that pop up every-week must be followers and cultists of nurgle perpetuating the need for decay. I therefore declare that that such threads are heresy and subject to exterminatus. So says the Inquisition!
2012/05/04 11:32:42
Subject: Re:Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
Speaking of the glory days:
Russia threatens to commit world suicide if the NATO goes ahead with ABM shield against Iran.
(someone might send them a note to remind them about that whole NATO/10,000 nuke warheads/nuke exchange/nuke winter everybody dies thing)
Maybe they're concerned about global warming and want to counteract it with a little nuclear winter?
MOSCOW – Russia's top military officer has threatened to carry out a pre-emptive strike on U.S.-led NATO missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe if Washington goes ahead with its controversial plan to build a missile shield.
President Dmitry Medvedev said last year that Russia will retaliate militarily if it does not reach an agreement with the United States and NATO on the missile defense system.
Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov went even further Thursday. "A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken if the situation worsens," he said at an international conference attended by senior U.S. and NATO officials.
Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov also warned on Thursday that talks between Moscow and Washington on the topic are "close to a dead end."
U.S. missile defense plans in Europe have been one of the touchiest subjects in U.S.-Russian relations for years.
Moscow rejects Washington's claim that the missile defense plan is solely to deal with any Iranian missile threat and has voiced fears it will eventually become powerful enough to undermine Russia's nuclear deterrent. Moscow has proposed running the missile shield jointly with NATO, but the alliance has rejected that proposal.
Makarov's statement on Thursday doesn't seem to imply an immediate threat, but aims to put extra pressure on Washington to agree to Russia's demands.
The two-day conference in Moscow is the last major Russia-U.S. meeting about military issues before a NATO summit in Chicago later this month. Russia has not yet said whether it will send top officials.
In a candid, lively exchange during a conference side session, officials talked about the high level of distrust remaining between the two sides.
"We can't just reject the distrust that has been around for decades and become totally different people," Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said in addressing U.S. and NATO officials. "Why are they calling on me, on my Russian colleagues, to reject distrust? Better look at yourselves in the mirror."
U.S. State Department special envoy Ellen Tauscher responded that neither country can afford another arms race.
"Your 10-foot fence cannot cause me to build an 11-foot ladder," Tauscher said. "It's going to have to take a political leap of faith and it's going to take some trust that we have to borrow, perhaps, from each other and for each other, but why don't we do it for the next generation?".
At a later news conference, Tauscher played down Makarov's comments on pre-emptive measures
"We've heard it before," she said. "We think that's off on the horizon.We think they were showing us what could happen. I think we're far from there, but we're aware of what they're saying."
The Obama administration tried to ease tensions with Russia in 2009 by saying it would revamp an earlier Bush-era plan to emphasize shorter-range interceptors. Russia initially welcomed that move, but has more recently suggested the new interceptors could threaten its missiles as the U.S. interceptors are upgraded.
The U.S.-NATO missile defense plans use Aegis radars and interceptors on ships and a more powerful radar based in Turkey in the first phase, followed by radar and interceptor facilities in Romania and Poland.
Russia would not plan any retaliation unless the United States goes through with its plans and takes the third and final step and deploys defense elements in Poland, Antonov said Wednesday. That is estimated to happen no earlier than in 2018.
Russia has just commissioned a radar in Kaliningrad, its western outpost near the Polish border, capable of monitoring missile launches from Europe and the North Atlantic.
On Thursday, at the start of the conference attended by representatives from about 50 countries, Russia's Security Council secretary reiterated Moscow's offer to run the missile shield together with NATO. Nikolai Patrushev said such a jointly run European missile defense system "could strengthen the security of every single country of the continent" and "would be adequate for possible threats and will not deter strategic security."
NATO's deputy secretary general, Alexander Vershbow, told the conference that the U.S.-led missile shield is "not and will not be directed against Russia" and that Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles are "too fast and too sophisticated" for the planned system to intercept.
Meanwhile, U.S. Senator John McCain, on a visit to Lithuania, lashed out at Russia's plans in Kaliningrad.
McCain said using missile defense as an "excuse to have a military buildup in this part of the world, which is at peace, is really an egregious example of what might be even viewed as paranoia on the part of Vladimir Putin."
___
Jim Heintz in Moscow and Liudas Dapkus in Vilnius, Lithuania, contributed to this report.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2012/05/04 11:35:30
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
I'm just gonna drop in my 2 cents here.
War is almost inevitable, tension is building in the middle east with the war on terror and religious fanatics trying to wage war on anyone who doesn't belive/like their religion. Also the north korea thing isn't looking too good what with them testing missiles.
TMP
Space Wolves: 10 Grey Hunters, 5 Terminators, 1 Wolf Priest
Dark Eldar: 10 Wyches, 1 Succubus
Skaven: IoB, 3 Extra Rat Ogres, 1 Grey Seer, 1 Warlord
High Elves: IoB
KingCracker wrote: I wont lie, I laughed a bit. I do feel a bit sorry for the poor folks that were sleeping, and suddenly woke up on the ceiling
If there is a major conflict in the Middle East (clearly most likely to be between Israel and surrounding countries) does that constitute a major war for the purposes of the OP's requirement?
Xeriapt wrote:I predict an outbreak of sheep influenza in the next 30 years decimating the worlds sheep population.
But, due to New Zealands isolation they will be unaffected by the shocking sheepy deaths, leading to massive spikes in wool prices.
Leaving the only logical conclusion, we must invade New Zealand.
This video is once again entirely appropriate and applicable.
sebster wrote:
Orlanth wrote:Its a known fact that Aussies are genetically disposed towards crime, we intentionally set them up that way.
But only awesome crimes like bushranging and, if I understand the song correctly, sheep stealing and suicide.
2012/05/04 12:32:14
Subject: Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
azazel the cat wrote:Economic interdependance actually increases the chances exponentially.
Not really. Economically interdependent states might go to war due to trade conditions that are viewed as unfavorable, but the global economy is presently such that there isn't really one single trade relationship that defines any major nation's economy. The one exception being the relationship between the US and Chine, but any conflict there would be so costly that any sort of rational calculus basically prohibits all-out engagement.
Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh.
2012/05/04 14:13:43
Subject: Re:Will there be a major war in the 21st century?
The developing world is emerging and they want a share of Earth's finite resources. Someone's living standards are going to drop.
God help us if there's a shortage, or we don't replace oil... 'cos this is going to happen:
I am worried I'll sound like some early 20th century Darwinist, but I think in such conditions, some quasi-racial war is inevitable.
In the BF2142 example; it's a contest spawned when a planet which has suddenly had its workable resources shrink overnight has no change in its population; ultimately a conflict has to be waged and the losers face annihilation, or at least a precipitous drop in living standards.
Everyone wants a slice of the pie, and the white man has sat on it far too long.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Hazardous Harry wrote:If there is a major conflict in the Middle East (clearly most likely to be between Israel and surrounding countries) does that constitute a major war for the purposes of the OP's requirement?
Xeriapt wrote:I predict an outbreak of sheep influenza in the next 30 years decimating the worlds sheep population.
But, due to New Zealands isolation they will be unaffected by the shocking sheepy deaths, leading to massive spikes in wool prices.
Leaving the only logical conclusion, we must invade New Zealand.
This video is once again entirely appropriate and applicable.
In a future war, would New Zealand rely on Oz?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/04 14:15:09
