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I've got to admit to being mildly surprised to see them reach a deal as despite it being clear everybody wanted to get there it was looking like general incompetence from our glorious leaderette

but now we get to the hard part

Well, I think May has got a lot of things wrong, but actually she is charting a very difficult course between Scylla and Charybdis and seems likely to pull through successfuly this time.

I’m going to reserve judgement until I see the final result. Whilst I can except some alignment (that’s to be expected) I hope this doesn’t turn out to be Remain in all but name.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’m going to reserve judgement until I see the final result. Whilst I can except some alignment (that’s to be expected) I hope this doesn’t turn out to be Remain in all but name.

May has promised Ireland no hard border. At the same time she has promised DUP no regulatory barriers between NI and the rUK.

Not much in the way of wriggle room there....

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’m going to reserve judgement until I see the final result. Whilst I can except some alignment (that’s to be expected) I hope this doesn’t turn out to be Remain in all but name.

It can only be Remain in all but name and influence.

I think we are heading for a situation in which leaving the EU is phased out gradually over a period of 8 years.

There will be an initial transitional two years during which we will effectively remain in the EU for many purposes while setting up the conditions for the next six years during which the ECJ still has some oversight of EU citizens rights and so on. (See the complete text of the announcement for boring but essential details.)

Rather than jumping off a cliff this will be a more careful descent using safety lines and so on, but eventually we will be outside the EU with trade relations set up with them, probably on a basis of shadowing EU regulations to achieve the same end result where necessary to export.

Although I still am convinced that leaving the EU is a major error, the process outlined above at least allows the UK to adjust gradually to the new conditions and gives the best chance of avoiding a sudden collapse.

I am also pretty pleased with this.


Like you said, instead of leaping from said cliff, we May now descend slowly and carefully. Granted the sea might still be full of bad tempered mutated sea bass at the end, or it might be full of warm milk.

Warm milk, honey and off-shore tax havens, is what the Hard Brexiteers are hoping for.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I think we are heading for a situation in which leaving the EU is phased out gradually over a period of 8 years.

There will be an initial transitional two years during which we will effectively remain in the EU for many purposes while setting up the conditions for the next six years during which the ECJ still has some oversight of EU citizens rights and so on. (See the complete text of the announcement for boring but essential details.)

Rather than jumping off a cliff this will be a more careful descent using safety lines and so on, but eventually we will be outside the EU with trade relations set up with them, probably on a basis of shadowing EU regulations to achieve the same end result where necessary to export.

Although I still am convinced that leaving the EU is a major error, the process outlined above at least allows the UK to adjust gradually to the new conditions and gives the best chance of avoiding a sudden collapse.

Agreed. This is actually a reasonable settlement. The financial aspect is not too onerous. The ECJ will continue to have a role in citizens rights after departure, which I think was utterly outrageous as a demand to begin with, but is limited to eight years and goes both ways. That I can swallow. A similar period of time for protection over living and working? Sure, that's not a problem. And in both of those cases, it goes both ways again. Reciprocation is the key word, which when allied with a preset time limit, is A ok.

No, I'm actually quite happy with that. It could all still be sunk by the Irish border of course, but they've another year or so to hammer that one out now.

Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

I think the loony wing of the party is relatively small and May will carry the moderates with her. Remember that the majority of MPs of all parties are anti-Brexit.

The real worry is what the powers behind the scenes will do, but that depends on how much they feel their tax havens are threatened by the current roadmap.

@ Ketera

I read that the EU was pushing for a 15 year period and May proposed 5, so to settle on 8 is pretty good. Yes it does suck that they demanded it in the first place but still. Is there any news about the customs union and fishing rights?

It's not the loony wing she needs to watch for. It's the Weasel Brothers.

She's not exactly popular in her own party, and has made apparently questionable decisions when replacing ministers.

Plus of course I'm sure Farage is about to make a 'surprise' return to politics, bringing with him Aaron 'Toadface' Banks' wallet as well.

This isn't over I'd wager....

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

Is there a chance that BoJo could use his foreign officer powers to get Russian assassins after May?

I mean it would be a page out of a James Bond novel, but imagine the headlines.

If we're being honest here, this is a deal that doesn't really satisfy anybody, and the ball has well and truly been booted into the long grass.

The Tory civil war, which has been rumbling away for decades, will well and truly have to be battled over to the death in 2018. There can be only one, as a certain film franchise once said.

But those are battles for another day. We're coming to Xmas and New Year, so I would say to everybody enjoy the holidays, and forget about the upcoming battles until 2018

Cheers!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
@ Ketera

I read that the EU was pushing for a 15 year period and May proposed 5, so to settle on 8 is pretty good. Yes it does suck that they demanded it in the first place but still. Is there any news about the customs union and fishing rights?

I thought you'd be overjoyed at the prospect of keeping your EU citizenship

I read in the Guardian that the whole of the UK is leaving the CU. I didn't see anything about fishing rights.

 welshhoppo wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

Is there a chance that BoJo could use his foreign officer powers to get Russian assassins after May?

I mean it would be a page out of a James Bond novel, but imagine the headlines.

I seriously wouldn't put it past him.

Mind you, he's got to make it out of Iran first....

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I think the loony wing of the party is relatively small and May will carry the moderates with her. Remember that the majority of MPs of all parties are anti-Brexit.

The real worry is what the powers behind the scenes will do, but that depends on how much they feel their tax havens are threatened by the current roadmap.

You're forgetting that the rest of the EU27 have to ratify a deal, so it's all academic if a 3 man parliament in Flanders pulls the plug on the whole thing a la Canada.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

According the 1922 committee rules, and according to the rules of the house of commons, there couldn't be a general election until at least Febuary, and the Tory leadership contest couldn't happen until least January.

We will finish 2017 with May as PM


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Warm milk, honey and off-shore tax havens, is what the Hard Brexiteers are hoping for.

Well, I looking forward to nationalised trains again, and a generous VAT cut for the Highlands and Islands

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I think the loony wing of the party is relatively small and May will carry the moderates with her. Remember that the majority of MPs of all parties are anti-Brexit.

The real worry is what the powers behind the scenes will do, but that depends on how much they feel their tax havens are threatened by the current roadmap.

You're forgetting that the rest of the EU27 have to ratify a deal, so it's all academic if a 3 man parliament in Flanders pulls the plug on the whole thing a la Canada.

...

You are forgetting that the Canada deal got past the Flanders crew in a few weeks.

Also, as Brexiteers are now fond of pointing out, the veto power is expected to be replaced by qualified majority voting, which apparently is a bad thing the same as a veto is a bad thing.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I think the loony wing of the party is relatively small and May will carry the moderates with her. Remember that the majority of MPs of all parties are anti-Brexit.

The real worry is what the powers behind the scenes will do, but that depends on how much they feel their tax havens are threatened by the current roadmap.

You're forgetting that the rest of the EU27 have to ratify a deal, so it's all academic if a 3 man parliament in Flanders pulls the plug on the whole thing a la Canada.

...

You are forgetting that the Canada deal got past the Flanders crew in a few weeks.

Also, as Brexiteers are now fond of pointing out, the veto power is expected to be replaced by qualified majority voting, which apparently is a bad thing the same as a veto is a bad thing.

The tyranny of the majority?

May has bought the time to make a trade deal.

Her next big hurdle is the cabinet meeting in which they have finally to thrash out what they want to aim for in the trade deal. This has to happen in the next two weeks.

From a purely, Devil's Advocate, Scottish Independence viewpoint, it's an early Xmas present for the SNP.

Because if Northern Ireland gets special treatment, then the logical question will be: why can't Scotland get the same?

And also, a lot of anti-independence arguments collapse into rubble, because if there's no hard Irish border, then nobody can argue for a hard border at the River Tweed.

No wonder Sturgeon's happy.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
If we're being honest here, this is a deal that doesn't really satisfy anybody, and the ball has well and truly been booted into the long grass.

Speak for yourself. I'm reasonably satisfied. I can look at everything that's been announced and either say 'That's fair', or 'That's not great, but has a time limit, so sure'.

Future War Cultist wrote:@ Ketera

I read that the EU was pushing for a 15 year period and May proposed 5, so to settle on 8 is pretty good. Yes it does suck that they demanded it in the first place but still. Is there any news about the customs union and fishing rights?

There's a commitment to keeping politices on Ireland's border roughly aligned, as well as a commitment not to put a border in the Irish sea. So that particular ball has been rolled over for another day, and we're going to have people pushing to use that angle to keep us in the common market. Which is fine if they want to, everyone has an opinion. Maybe it'll happen, maybe not. I would speculate that to be honest, with another few years to work it out, they'll likely thrash out a custom agreement. We'll be part of some stuff with no oversight, independent on others, get slightly preferential access to the common market, but not as much as we might like, etc.

Nothing on fishing, that'll be in future trade talks.

As the BBC put it, the watchword of the day is compromise. Which is good. Everyone is walking away going, 'Yeah. I can stomach this'. It's not perfect, but it's acceptable, and reasonable. And given that it just popped more or less out of the blue, it goes to show that actually, the constant scaremongering by the media and various party politics might not actually be the best way to gauge progress.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

I don't see them making a move yet. Sun Tzu say don't fight a battle until you have already won and I'm not sure either of them could unite the Tory party atm.
I can see Boris waiting for the referendum on the deal and then campaigning against it because it doesn't benefit us enough!

The labour moderates showed earlier in the year that if you make a move to oust your leader and fail, all you achieve is to abdicate all influence over the direction of your party.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
From a purely, Devil's Advocate, Scottish Independence viewpoint, it's an early Xmas present for the SNP.

Because if Northern Ireland gets special treatment, then the logical question will be: why can't Scotland get the same?

And also, a lot of anti-independence arguments collapse into rubble, because if there's no hard Irish border, then nobody can argue for a hard border at the River Tweed.

No wonder Sturgeon's happy.

Northern Ireland isn't getting special treatment, except insofar as it is the only land border with an EU state, and has the special consideration of the Good Friday Agreement.

Neither of these factors applies to Scotland, which in any case will benefit from the arrangement to the same degree as the whole of the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I think the loony wing of the party is relatively small and May will carry the moderates with her. Remember that the majority of MPs of all parties are anti-Brexit.

The real worry is what the powers behind the scenes will do, but that depends on how much they feel their tax havens are threatened by the current roadmap.

You're forgetting that the rest of the EU27 have to ratify a deal, so it's all academic if a 3 man parliament in Flanders pulls the plug on the whole thing a la Canada.

...

You are forgetting that the Canada deal got past the Flanders crew in a few weeks.

Also, as Brexiteers are now fond of pointing out, the veto power is expected to be replaced by qualified majority voting, which apparently is a bad thing the same as a veto is a bad thing.

The tyranny of the majority?

You can either have a veto or not have a veto. If you see both these situations as bad, I am afraid that Churchill's Maxim comes into play.

 Kroem wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Well, I suspect May is toast. Not because of what's been agreed, but because it's clearly not what Gove and Johnson were angling for.

Knives out, gentlemen....new PM by Christmas?

I don't see them making a move yet. Sun Tzu say don't fight a battle until you have already won and I'm not sure either of them could unite the Tory party atm.
I can see Boris waiting for the referendum on the deal and then campaigning against it because it doesn't benefit us enough!

The labour moderates showed earlier in the year that if you make a move to oust your leader and fail, all you achieve is to abdicate all influence over the direction of your party.

Pretty sure the labour 'moderates' choked, because they conflated the Parliamentary Labour party with being the entirety of the Labour Party?

Then Corbyn increased their vote share from 26% to 40% showing the party he was not electoral poison.

Nothing succeeds like success.

However I do think he needs to get the party to stand up clearly for something positive, especially around the Brexit issue.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Then Corbyn increased their vote share from 26% to 40% showing the party he was not electoral poison.

Nothing succeeds like success.

However I do think he needs to get the party to stand up clearly for something positive, especially around the Brexit issue.

If you lose, then 40% of the vote is essentially 40% of zero. But I concede that he did even better than I predicted.

As to the earlier point on the Irish border, it's the principal here, plus the fact that 2/3rds of Scotland voted to stay in the EU, plus a lot of mischief making from the SNP = another major headache for May.

Like I said earlier, the ball has been booted into the long grass, but a lawnmower is heading towards that grass.

Something has to give. 2018 is going to be another cracker if you're into politics. Tory civil war, Scotland, EU negotiations. North Korea, Middle East. We'd be fools to predict anything.

Death and taxes are your only certainties in life, as somebody once said.

I think the complexion of Parliament would be a liittle different if there were 0 Labour MPs sitting now.

70% of Oxford voted to stay in the EU. It doesn't justify a special deal for Oxford.

70% of Grimsby voted to Leave the EU. Now they want a special deal to deflect the bad effects on them of getting out of the EU.

Grimsby can go choke says I, a bloke from the only place in Kent to vote Remain.

You don't get to throw your dinner on the floor then demand the person next to you.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Grimsby can go choke says I, a bloke from the only place in Kent to vote Remain.

You don't get to throw your dinner on the floor then demand the person next to you.

I don't know, I hear human meat is quite tasty.

But I agree, no special exceptions. I'd throw a fit, raise an army and then raze London if it got special exceptions to the rule.