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Dracos wrote:One thing that is missing from all the comparative values given, is a value for average kills from a Sgt. with no special weapons. If you add that in, and compare both power fist and power weapon averages, then you will get a better picture of what your 15 and 25 points are getting you.

Comparing them to each other is somewhat of a folly, since they are different point values and do not have a starting point to show what each gets you on its own.

.... really? fine, fine ....

Bolter and bolt pistol or bolt pistol and CCW
2,3 or 3,4
MEQ
3/6 3/6 2/6 = 18/216 = 8.3% ... so unlikely to kill.
GEQ
4/6 4/6 4/6 = 64/216 = 29.6%

Dracos

If I swing at something 4 times and each shot has a 25% chance to kill you can't conclude from that that I'll definitely kill 1. I don't really know how to work it out past that point I just know that you have 4 distinct swings at (in this case) 3 distinct objects (Kans in a squad). It's not at all unlikely that the 4 meltaguns will kill 2 or even 3 of the kans, which is what the 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 4/4 or 1 argument overlooks, besides, as you said, the probability of killing even 1 never reaches 100%

AF


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really my only point was that the meltaguns are a better way to deal with the mob of kans than a power fist. however likely or unlikely it is that 4 tl meltaguns will nuke the whole mob ithey're wwwaaayyyy more likely to get the job done than a sergeant swinging with a power fist, who has 0 chance at killing all 3 in 1 combat. Unless he charges I guess. Which would be gutsy indeed.

I was referring to the squad and the powerfist killing 2 or 3 MEQs, not the fist alone.

It doesn't hurt my feelings when you ignore my excellent points, it just annoys me to have to repeat them. And I wasn't annoyed that you were ignoring my posts specifically, but also Tri and Sanctjud who seem to have a pretty solid grasp of tactics versus a wide variety of opponents.

Someone math hammer a melta gun killing a kff obscured man vs a powerfist in a squad of 10 marines in CC, would you? Just out of curiosity.

And I've tried to bow out of the snarkiness gracefully, AF. Let's not be pissy anymore.

Now this is where you've got me wrong I'm perfectly within my rights to say that # will probably do #. If i said they will cause a wound then I'd be wrong.

If you must know you work out the odds of doing it once, this case X, and find out the odds of it not happening raise that to the power of the number of shots. That will find you the odds of failing to kill one model with # number of shots.
1-(1-X)^#
This of cause fails when you want to find out the more complicated things like the chance of 4 meltas killing 3 Kans. Then what you need to do is add the odds of all the out comes where you manage to meet the criteria.
ABCD
1111 = X*X*X*X
1110 = X*X*X*(1-X)
1101 = X*X*X*(1-X)
1011 = X*X*X*(1-X)
0111 = X*X*X*(1-X)
= X*X*X*X + X*X*X*(1-X) + X*X*X*(1-X) + X*X*X*(1-X)


Melta guns ..
(4/6, 33/36, 4/6, 3/6) + (4/6 2/36 2/6 3/6) = 1632/7776 = 20.9%
TL Melta guns.
(32/36, 33/36, 4/6, 3/6) + (32/36 2/36 2/6 3/6) = 13056/46656 = 28.%
Power fist Vs Killa Kan (AV11 WS3)
(4/6 2/6 3/6)+(4/6 1/6 1/6) = 28/216 = 12.96%
& with 2 attacks = 24.2%
& with 3 attacks = 34%

Tri
yes I'm very likely to kill at least 1 kan but you can't say, based on those numbers, that I'll *only* kill 1. Just guessing 2 is far more likely.

You will Probably kill one.
You may also: kill nothing, kill one, kill two, kill three, kill four times (wasting the 4 since there's no one left).
You may also have unlikely things like, one of the killer kanz explodes. Since your melta guns with in 6" so you may also loose 0-All space marines in range of the blast.
, these things have a very low probability but they may happen. If you like i can tell you the odds of it happening but its unlikely to come up.

Samus_aran115 wrote:

AbaddonFidelis wrote:on that note I wish this game had a built in side board system, like in magic. It's dumb to tell me I have to stick with flamers if that's what I bought. Like we're not smart enough to pack a few plasma guns in that rhino just in case. idk even modern armies can do that. seems like the game should have a little better flexibility in that regard.
AF

That's a actually a really good point. Go tell GW

And have them spit in your face...

Monster
you said: "I've tried to bow out of the snarkiness gracefully, AF. Let's not be pissy anymore."
Fair enough

Sorry if I gave the impression I'm ignoring points. I'm talking to Tri at length.... as for sanct... yes I am ignoring him.... because I've talked to him so much in the past that I know what he's going to say before he says it: "it's all shades of grey... their roles are different... you cant compare... actually its not all that bad... it's all personal preferences..." blah blah blah. I don't have anything to say to this approach to the game, so I don't say it. But anyway if he wants to whine about being on my ignore list that's fine.... It's touching to know he cares

about the power fists... well if you want to kill another meq in cc why not take the power weapon? it's cheaper and gives about the same results per swing, but, importantly, it swings at init 4. The big thing witht he power fist is init 1. the higher init value you kill someone at the less opportunity they have to attack you, so the power weapon is the more aggressive play. It's not as big a deal on loyalist marines but on a berserker or on a noise marine it's huge. everyone you kill at init 5 is potentially one of your guys who lives. or just a strait up fight between a guy with a power weapon and a guy with a power fist. again the power weapon wins. The power fist doesn't synergize well with combat squads either, which is supposed to be one of the great things about tactical squads.

the meltaguns came up because tri was making a point about its usefulness about kans. without doing the math I'd guess they have about an equal shot at killing them; the power fist doesn't get obscured by the kustom force field but it's not twin linked or ap 1 either so they'll probably balance out.

AbaddonFidelis wrote:the meltaguns came up because tri was making a point about its usefulness about kans. without doing the math I'd guess they have about an equal shot at killing them; the power fist doesn't get obscured by the kustom force field but it's not twin linked or ap 1 either so they'll probably balance out.

Note i Have ^ On the charge the fist wins, and to quote you it has the possibility of kill all three.
TL Melta guns = 28.%
Power fist Vs Killa Kan (AV11 WS3) = 12.96%
& with 2 attacks = 24.2%
& with 3 attacks = 34%
But then why not take both and up the odds even more?

ummm...yes 1 power fist is more likely to kill a kan than 1 meltagun. who shoots 1 meltagun though? If you make it a strait points comparison then 28/100 x250/100 = 70/100 or 70%
meltas win again

Yes it's possible that the power fist will nuke all 3 killa kans in 1 combat if you charge but this is getting way out into the hypothetical..... I mean if you're on the table are you really going to risk the whole squad of marines on a 1/3 chance of killing 1 kan with a power fist?
AF

AbaddonFidelis wrote:ummm...yes 1 power fist is more likely to kill a kan than 1 meltagun. who shoots 1 meltagun though? If you make it a strait points comparison then 28/100 x250/100 = 70/100 or 70%
meltas win again

Yes it's possible that the power fist will nuke all 3 killa kans in 1 combat if you charge but this is getting way out into the hypothetical..... I mean if you're on the table are you really going to risk the whole squad of marines on a 1/3 chance of killing 1 kan with a power fist?
AF

well If you've just meltagun it ... you might as well get the charge, its that or its shooting you and then charging. Melta guns have 12" range ... Kans can move 6" and assault another 6".

Well... on average the fist does better vs. MEQ than the power weapon.
The Fist cost more though, but that's because it does more.

I care because I want others to have a balanced view of things, not just the one way street.

I mean, just look at a point I make that he is dismissing: The role.
What could he mean?
That the role of the Sarg. makes no difference to the equipment used?
That the role of the power weapon and the power fist are in fact one and the same?

Edit: took out unneeded last liner.

the way I'd deal with the kan wall is to hit it with a mass of meltaguns from about 12" away. I mean like 8 or more. You don't really need the 2d6 vs armor 10 and this will let you stay out of their charge range, and that of the guys behind them, since in a kan wall you're dealing with more than 1 kan squadron.

I agree with you that just hitting it with 4 meltaguns won't be enough. hitting it with 4 + a power fist might do it if you have enough casualties in the squad to survive to init 1, but even if you pull it off it's a suicide mission, since there are presumably more kans behind those. It will come out to a 1:1 trade at best, which is not really the best...

and this is just 1 marginal situation. what's the value in a marine vs marine fight? against an ork horde army? against guard? etc. I think on the balance power fists are out... at least on squad sergeants.
AF

Kans have 2 attacks, and ws 3. If you attack a squadron of 3 with more than 3 marines your fist will get to swing, most likely.

Tri your not organizing the math in a coherent way, at least not to me.

@ Abaddon: If you read what I quoted of you, was that you stated that someone could not say what was probable to happen. My point was that you can say what is probable, but not what is going to happen.

Using as base Sgt with Bolt pistol+CCW: if you plan on having your Tacticals get into combat, it makes sense to outfit with bolt pistol + CCW instead of just a bolter as basis for analysis (IMO, if you want to know what its like for just a bolter, the math isn't complicated)

Against GEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 4*4/6*4/6*4/6~1.19 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 3*4/6*4/6*4/6~0.89 kills average

MEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 4*3/6*3/6*2/6~0.33 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 3*3/6*3/6*2/6~0.25 kills average


Sgt with bolt pistol + power weapon

Against GEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 4*4/6*4/6~1.78 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 3*4/6*4/6*~1.33 kills average

MEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 4*3/6*3/6~1 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 3*3/6*3/6~0.75 kills average

Sgt with power fist

Against GEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 3*4/6*5/6~1.67 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 2*4/6*5/6~1.11 kills average

MEQ:
Tacticals assaulting: 3*3/6*5/6~1.25 kills average
Tacticals assaulted: 2*3/6*5/6~0.83 kills average

A sgt is worth approximately 26 points (5 man squad is 90 = 4(16) + 26, 10 man squad is 170= 9(16) + 26)

Therefore, in order for an upgrade to be worth its points, it would have to increase the model's total output overall by a % equal to its % cost. Power weapon is 60% of the cost of the Sgt model and therefore must increase by 60%. Powerfist is 96% and therefore must increase by 96%.

Sgt with bolt pistol + power weapon (same number of attacks make % increase for assaulting and assaulted the same)
Against GEQ :
Assaulting:50%
Assaulted:50%
MEQ:
Assaulting:200%
Assaulted:200%

Sgt with power fist
Against GEQ:
Assaulting:40%
Assaulted:25%
MEQ
Assaulting:278%
Assaulted:232%

So while its clear that each turn the unit is in combat with MEQ, the weapons will increase the output by enough to justify themselves, the real question is how frequently you are going to be able to use the increase.

What does the math actually tell us then: If you find your tacticals in combat frequently with MEQ, then the upgrades are not only worth it, but suggested.

It all comes down to how you use your tactical squads. If you don't spend many turn in assault with MEQ, then the upgrades are not going to be worth the expense. Personally, I fall into this category.

Monster
ok good point. sorry dont know much about kans besides av 10 and dccw. and some surprisingly effective ranged fire power....


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Dracos
yeah I couldnt follow his math either


Automatically Appended Next Post:
yeah I'm not really interested in having my MEQs fight theirs either. So I'd agree with you it's a bad buy. 3+ power weapons are meaningful, just 1, no. I only suggested the power weapon bc it's a cheaper alternative for people who just have to give their sergeant a weapon.

I just don't think it's meaningful to add up percentages. You can say each shot has a certain percentage chance of doing something but you can't conclude that because each shot has a 1 in 4 chance then 4 chances equals certainty or near certainty. Saying for instance that 4 swings at 25% chance each will kill on average 1 guy ignores the possibility that 3 will die, which is also possible. Mathematically that has to be accounted for in some way. I admit I don't know what exactly you're supposed to do past figuring out the likelyhood of each swing. If you're confident that you do then I think it's fair to ask: why? what are your credentials? If you have none, can you reference someone who does?

AF

AbaddonFidelis wrote:the way I'd deal with the kan wall is to hit it with a mass of meltaguns from about 12" away. I mean like 8 or more. You don't really need the 2d6 vs armor 10 and this will let you stay out of their charge range, and that of the guys behind them, since in a kan wall you're dealing with more than 1 kan squadron.

I agree with you that just hitting it with 4 meltaguns won't be enough. hitting it with 4 + a power fist might do it if you have enough casualties in the squad to survive to init 1, but even if you pull it off it's a suicide mission, since there are presumably more kans behind those. It will come out to a 1:1 trade at best, which is not really the best...

and this is just 1 marginal situation. what's the value in a marine vs marine fight? against an ork horde army? against guard? etc. I think on the balance power fists are out... at least on squad sergeants.
AF

Kans are AV11,11,10 though you are unlikely to need 2D6 to pen them you'll need to roll higher then you need.
Melta's not at half range are ... wait you want this a TL won't you sigh...
TL-Melta over half range VS AV11.
32/36 3/6 4/6 1/2 + 32/36 1/6 2/6 1/2 = 224/1296 = 17.2% ... Now to get upset but quick bodge works out about 50 are need.

As to what a fist will bring against other armies ...
IG you want to charge them. If you can charge and destroy a tank so much the better.
Nids Let me think which codex has the most nasty deep-striking MCs?
Daemons, Sure they have eternal warrior and invulnerable save but you'll still be wounding them on a 2+.
Eldar, Waveserpents have enegy fields, But fists still hit the rear armour. There are also things like Avatars and Wraithlords to watch out for. Much like guard you want to get into close combat with them.
Space marines don't like power fists to the face. They also sport a range of vehicles that the fist works on.

End of the day taking a fist on a unit in a rhino gives you one more option. Not taking it is up to you personally but you're missing out.

edit oh and Draco, i just list the percentage odds of it happening, normally once unless mention.

yes it should always be twin linked. I wouldnt run marines without vulkan. ever.

I'm not upset tri... I just dont agree with your math.

Your odds on each meltagun killing its target are right. However you can't add the percentages together (if you could then forcing a marine to take 3 power armor saves would kill him 100% of the time since 1/3 x3 = 1.) If you're going to invoke the absolute, final authority of math you have to follow its rules precisely. You're not doing that so I don't accept your conclusion.

Even if you could though I'm curious where your 50 meltaguns idea comes from. The number I got was 17.6 since 17x17.6 = 300 or 3 kans.

And again........this is 1 marginal situation. to bring the conversation even remotely back to topic even if power fists completely wrecked kan walls it wouldn't make the case that they're an awesome buy for the sergeant. You'd have to show that they're useful in *most* close combats, not just *a few*
AF

Theoryhammer =/= true gameplay. It's mere statistics, AF. By adding the percentages together, you get the averages. On average, out of 3 marines, 1 should fail an armour save. 2 may fail, none may, but on average, 1/3 should die.

Simple.
Also, if you only run with Vulkan, then why not play with only terminators with 2 5 man scout squads, since you hate marines so much. You sound like a little kid when you say 'I don't accept your conclusion.' You may not accept it, but it's the truth. You can say, 'nah nah nah I don't accept the earth is a sphere (relatively)', but at the end of the day, it's pretty much a sphere. Power fists are useful around the board, since they can insta-kill nobs, murder ork boyz, devastate guardsmen, eradicate eldar units (aka wound wraithlord on 4+), punch out tanks, beat up walkers, slay Armoured Sentinels (as YOU said yourself), destroy most (if not all) nids, slay tau even better, and can do SO many things, for only 25 points. That's a bloody bargain!

Quick dirty way of finding how many shots you need to destroy X number of targets, on average; is to divide the number of targets by the fraction to do it once. In this case we have 9 dreads and being destroyed at 0.172 that works out at 52.07: now you can fire less then that but chance of destroying all 9 Kanz will diminish.

but its simple to see that 10 meltas won't do it.

Oh and you do realize that all percentage figures are fractions multiply by 100: before you can use it else where it need to divide back down as well.

JSK
I'm sorry if you're finding this conversation frustrating... you know what's good for getting rid of frustration? Exercise. Really clears the mind. You'll still be wrong afterwards of course but you'll feel better

Anyway I've pretty much said what I had to say. If you have something new to bring up I'd be interested to hear it though.
AF


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Yes tri I realize that a percentage is a fraction of 100. Per cent. Per 100. If you check my math I think you'll find I followed that ruIe.

I see where you're getting 50 from.... Ummm.. I guess at this point I've pretty much said what I had to say on the subject. Cheers.
AF

AbaddonFidelis wrote:JSK
I'm sorry if you're finding this conversation frustrating... you know what's good for getting rid of frustration? Exercise. Really clears the mind. You'll still be wrong afterwards of course but you'll feel better

Anyway I've pretty much said what I had to say. If you have something new to bring up I'd be interested to hear it though.
AF


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Yes tri I realize that a percentage is a fraction of 100. Per cent. Per 100.

I see where you're getting 50 from.... Ummm.. I guess at this point I've pretty much said what I had to say. the math on your power fists killing the kans is comparable, but the meltaguns are cheaper. Anyway Cheers.
AF

Frustrating? Pfft. I never get frustrated. Also, nice job completely avoiding the rest of what I said.

I've answered the rest of what you said in great... Tedious... Exhaustive.... Detail.... I can see how from your perspective it would be better if I typed it all again but life is short so just scroll up ok?

Unless monster rain has something else to add I'm pretty much done with this topic.
AF

It might be time to agree to disagree.

Or ignore each other.

Or "IGNORE" each other.

But certainly do NOT insult each other.

That would be... against the rules.

In all-comers lists I by default give all my sergeants powerfists. If there are leftover points after fleshing out my entire army I will then consider combi-weapons that match the assault weapon already put into the squad.

I'm not really sure what all this talk about vulcan marines came in.

Here is my final thoughts on this topic:

For the vanilla codex with no special characters taking away combat tactics: No upgrades except maybe a power weapon, or a melta bomb. Bolt pistol and chainsword is good enough
For vulcan marines from Codex:SM Give him a combi melta.
For Blood angels: tacs sarges same as vanilla, but assault sarges have CC options that should be taken.
For space wolves: lol, they get sarges?
Black templars: lol same as space wolves.
Dark angels: meh, I almost forget they exist, they are the rarest SM where I play, and vanilla does nearly the same thing and has more options.

I don't include the other special characters for Codex:SM since they aren't nearly as common as vulcan or plain vanilla. My personal SM is just vanilla, I don't ever take special characters, use librarians mostly (cheap and utilitarian) and only use tacticals to unlock razors and to score with. I don't really like paying too many points for what I plan on using the squad for, so I invest the saved points into the excellent support options that space marines have in every slot that isn't troops.

AbaddonFidelis wrote:
I've answered the rest of what you said in great... Tedious... Exhaustive.... Detail.... I can see how from your perspective it would be better if I typed it all again but life is short so just scroll up ok?

Unless monster rain has something else to add I'm pretty much done with this topic.
AF

We have officially agreed to disagree, I think.

Maybe someday we will meet at a GT or something and I can teach you the error of your ways. .

agree to disagree
lol yeah maybe you'll have the chance to...ummm... teach me... one day.

notabot187 wrote:I'm not really sure what all this talk about vulcan marines came in.

AbaddonFidelis always runs him so wanted to test TL-meltas Vs powerfists.

One point I'm going to try and get across is that no army can rely purely on shooting to win ... bar IG since they can both shoot hundreds of guns and afford to loose hundreds. Space marines have one of the best all round statline and even without special close combat weapons can win against most enemies. If nothing else by charging your marines you stop the enemy getting a bonus attack and shooting you. Now at the end of your enemies assault phase is a great time to fall back as you may get away and rally or simply shoot them.

By adding a power weapon you improve your attacks against infantry; by adding a power fist does every thing a power weapon does and also increase what you can attack. 25pts lets you hurt things that you'd otherwise have to rely on shooting. I think its worth it since you can never predict what you enemy will have.

I believe the term is, 'Expect the Unexpected.'
If you don't want to bring powerfists, some guy will have 6 dreadnoughts holding you marines in limbo for about 4 turns. If they are ironclads, without a pf, you can't even glance it!
You would lose, and be unhappy as a result. If you remembered to bring the occaisional trusty pf, you would win since they would be overwhelmed by a pf blowing up their dreads, and you would take victory with your infinately flexible Tacticals!