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In a one vs one fight, who stands a better chance of winning, Lelith or Abbadon?
What other IC's stand a match against her on the tabletop?

I'd be surprised if she took a single wound off Abbadon. It's a total no contest.

One is a renowned arena gladiator.

The other is a 10,000 year old genetically engineered super soldier wielding daemonic, sentient weapons and weapons of ages so advanced as to appear magical, and infused with power as the mortal champion of dark gods who has fought shed blood in just about every imaginable battlefield against every imaginable foe.

Fluff or tabletop - Abaddon by a country mile.

Lelith's getting an unsaved Wound 11% of the time with 7 Attacks (4 +2 from A League Apart +1 from two hand weapons) at Initiative 9, Abbadon's getting an unsaved Wound 9% of the time with 5 Attacks (4 +1 from two hand weapons) at Initiative 1. I'd actually call it for Lelith if she had Eternal Warrior, but she doesn't, so one hit from Abbadon downs her.

I'd call it Abbadon, but Lelith takes two Wounds off him first (expected 0.77 Wounds per round of combat for Lelith and 0.45 Wounds per round of combat for Abbadon).


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Vaktathi wrote:
One is a renowned arena gladiator.

The other is a 10,000 year old genetically engineered super soldier wielding daemonic, sentient weapons and weapons of ages so advanced as to appear magical, and infused with power as the mortal champion of dark gods who has fought shed blood in just about every imaginable battlefield against every imaginable foe.

A renowned arena gladiator with WS 9 who ignores armor regardless of what weapon she's using? Wait, forgot to factor in Lelith's Shardnet, and Abbadon's weapons are both Specialist Weapons. Abbadon's only getting three Attacks, expected 0.27 Wounds per round of combat, compared to Lelith's unchanged 0.77, both die on round four of close combat, but Lelith's higher Initiative means she kills Abbadon first. Call it even on the tabletop.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 jetstumpy wrote:
In a one vs one fight, who stands a better chance of winning, Lelith or Abbadon?
What other IC's stand a match against her on the tabletop?

As far as who I'd pit against Lelith in close combat, give a generic Grey Knight character a Nemesis sword and a storm shield for a 2++ Inv, he'll grind her down soon enough. Otherwise throw something at her that she can't wound with S 3 and plasma grenades, anything with any close combat ability and T7+ should be fine.

No model in the GK codex is permitted both NFS and storm shield. A warding stave will fill that role of 2++ in combat.

I would pit either Draigo, Mephiston, or a thunderwolf Lord with SS/frost blade against Lelith in CC. They only need to land once to gib her, and Lelith needing 6s to wound someone isn't good for her. Lower WS, wounding on 2+ with no rerolls means that such a model making 4 attacks will have a 45% a turn to kill Lelith on the spot. Draigo is a little hazier with a MC weapon instead of 4A but with that many attacks, MC is rather close to +1A in effect. Mephiston lacks an invuln and dies relatively quick but between Unleash Rage and Transfixing gaze, his ability to generate rerolls and force saves kicks his chance to kill up rather nicely.

Incidentally, because Abaddon *does* have two specialist weapons, he does get to claim the +1A for two weapons and thus makes four attacks against Lelith. He only needs one from the Shredding talon to land and he actually has a 51% chance per turn to kill lelith with it.

You can't use so-called expected wounds to calculate this, you need to use the chance that lelith's opponent lands at least one attacks if they're at least S6 or force weapon armed.

Having killed said Dark Eldar woman more times than I care to think about with Kharn, Abbadon and others I dare vote for Abbadon The Despoiler.

AnomanderRake wrote:

A renowned arena gladiator with WS 9 who ignores armor regardless of what weapon she's using? Wait, forgot to factor in Lelith's Shardnet, and Abbadon's weapons are both Specialist Weapons. Abbadon's only getting three Attacks, expected 0.27 Wounds per round of combat, compared to Lelith's unchanged 0.77, both die on round four of close combat, but Lelith's higher Initiative means she kills Abbadon first. Call it even on the tabletop.

Methinks you're not quite accounting for everything here.

Abaddon has 4A base, and both weapons are Specialist Weapons so he gets the +1A (the rule isn't that you need 1 identical weapons, rather both weapons must have the Specialist Weapon rule) so he's still rolling with 4 attacks at worst even if denied the bonus for 2 CC weapons, can get an additional D6 attacks with one weapon or can ID Lelith and reroll failed wounds with his other weapon, plus he's got Rage and Counterattack so if he charges he's got 6 attacks and 5 if lelith charges.

Even with only 3 attacks, using Abby's claw, you're looking 3 attacks hitting on 4's resulting in 1.5 hits, S8 rerolling failed wounds is 1.46 wounds, lelith saves 2/3 and we end up at .48 wounds each round that inflict ID.

I believe lelith strikes at normal S3? If so, then we're looking at 7 attacks, 4.66 hits, .77 wounds and Abby's 4+ invul drops that to .388

So even with only 3 attacks (when he should have at least 4 assuming I'm not missing anything) he's not only inflicting more wounds but also inflicting ID.


Am I missing something? It's possible, but I don't think so

I'm not arguing either way, as I don't have a Chaos 'dex.

Lilith has a Shardnet, so Abby gets -1 attack.
Lilith has 4A base +1 for 2CCW and +whatever from WS difference. I don't know what Abby's WS is, but I would think that would be about +3 or 4.

Only +2, Abbadon is a cut above your typical Marine HQ

 AnomanderRake wrote:

As far as who I'd pit against Lelith in close combat, give a generic Grey Knight character a Nemesis sword and a storm shield for a 2++ Inv, he'll grind her down soon enough. Otherwise throw something at her that she can't wound with S 3 and plasma grenades, anything with any close combat ability and T7+ should be fine.

I wish my Stormshield had 2+ invuls.

Don't worry, Draigo is the only GK with a SS and he doesn't have a NFS.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Don't worry, Draigo is the only GK with a SS and he doesn't have a NFS.

Draigo does not have a NFW, but the Titansword is a Master crafted Force weapon. so he can still insta-gib.

Yeah, I was responding about GKs getting a 2++ with a Stormshield.

Abaddon in fluff. Because he's Abaddon and helps the narrative.

Abaddon on the table. If I've done my calcs right. Wielding Drach'nyen, he has 4+Daemon weapon, and dependent on who gets the charge if at all, he may have another +1 or 2 on top for his MoK.

Lelith hits firsts with 6 attacks, 4 hits, 0.66 wounds, Abaddon takes 0.33 wounds. Which rounds to 0.

Abaddon hits back with average of 8 attacks with Drach'nyen assuming no charge bonus and average roll of 4 on Daemon Weapon.
4 hits, 3.33 wounds. Lelith's 3++ saves 2.22, leaving 1 woumd which kills her due to ID

Fascinating math so far

However there are some differences.

Anyone have a definitive math hammer?

Lets just say both charge and then both do not charge.

my guess is Abbadon

 Deadshot wrote:
Abaddon in fluff. Because he's Abaddon and helps the narrative.

Abaddon on the table. If I've done my calcs right. Wielding Drach'nyen, he has 4+Daemon weapon, and dependent on who gets the charge if at all, he may have another +1 or 2 on top for his MoK.

Lelith hits firsts with 6 attacks, 4 hits, 0.66 wounds, Abaddon takes 0.33 wounds. Which rounds to 0.

Abaddon hits back with average of 8 attacks with Drach'nyen assuming no charge bonus and average roll of 4 on Daemon Weapon.
4 hits, 3.33 wounds. Lelith's 3++ saves 2.22, leaving 1 woumd which kills her due to ID

You're not asking the right question, mathematically. You can't just take the mean and assume it's dispositive either, you need to use binomial distribution. The correct analysis is 'what is the chance that at least one of abaddon's attacks generates an unsaved wound?' Abaddon can only gib Lelith if he's attacking with the Talon, as hits from the daemon weapon are S5 for him. So he doesn't generate the d6 attacks from the daemon weapon if he's looking for the ID. An attack from the Talon has 1/2 to hit, 35/36 to wound, and 1/3 to be unsaved, so 181/216 to be nonlethal. In order to generate zero wounds, ALL attacks must be nonlethal, and thus we take the chance of failure to the nth power, where n is the number of events, aka, number of attacks. For four Talon attacks to fail, the chance is about 49%. The chance for five to fail is about 41%. Lelith's chance to generate lethal damage on the first turn of combat is trivial, and to do so in any timely manner is improbable as well. We have p<.05 on the fourth round of combat for Abaddon attacks to still fail to kill her, so we can reasonably assume that as an endpoint. In four turns of combat including the charge, lelith generates 29 attacks. Probability of Lelith generating four or more unsaved wounds on abaddon by this time is only about 7.5% so we can conclude abbadon will usually splatter her. Against WS7/T5/3++ (eg, Draigo) she has only a 2.5% chance to generate 4 wounds by round four, and against WS6/T5/3++ (Thunderwolf Lord), she only has about 3.3% to go lethal by round 4. At this point she has likely been gibbed by a frost blade, Hammerhand, or the Talon of Horus. Against Mephiston and his extra wound, she has a 22% chance to kill him by round 4 but he has by far the best chance to kill her between Unleash Rage and Transfixing gaze making him very likely to get at least some rerolls. If he transfixes at least once, we have p<0.05 that he kills her by round 3.

In short, Lelith becomes horribly inefficient as target toughness increases beyond 4, especially in the presence of invulnerable saves.

I would only like to add a couple things people havnt factored in on these battles. 1 is if the person uses the daemon weapon and then rolls that one abby becomes...well just ouch. second if the GK player is going to use any of his Powers and perils of the warp. and 3rd is what if the player rolls like me? (that is 5/6 dice are ones!)

Nevermind...

Lelith might have pain tokens, though.

Abbaddon is going to use the Talon, so no FnP for Lelith.

Furious charge might make a difference though Her math on turn one is a bit better if she gets the charge.

I'll agree that Abaddon has the edge in this fight. Lelith's 3+ Inv in CC has to fail sometime, and usually does for me. Her weapons ignoring regular armour is great, until you run into an invulnerable save...

 Vaktathi wrote:

AnomanderRake wrote:

A renowned arena gladiator with WS 9 who ignores armor regardless of what weapon she's using? Wait, forgot to factor in Lelith's Shardnet, and Abbadon's weapons are both Specialist Weapons. Abbadon's only getting three Attacks, expected 0.27 Wounds per round of combat, compared to Lelith's unchanged 0.77, both die on round four of close combat, but Lelith's higher Initiative means she kills Abbadon first. Call it even on the tabletop.

Methinks you're not quite accounting for everything here.

Abaddon has 4A base, and both weapons are Specialist Weapons so he gets the +1A (the rule isn't that you need 1 identical weapons, rather both weapons must have the Specialist Weapon rule) so he's still rolling with 4 attacks at worst even if denied the bonus for 2 CC weapons, can get an additional D6 attacks with one weapon or can ID Lelith and reroll failed wounds with his other weapon, plus he's got Rage and Counterattack so if he charges he's got 6 attacks and 5 if lelith charges.

Even with only 3 attacks, using Abby's claw, you're looking 3 attacks hitting on 4's resulting in 1.5 hits, S8 rerolling failed wounds is 1.46 wounds, lelith saves 2/3 and we end up at .48 wounds each round that inflict ID.

I believe lelith strikes at normal S3? If so, then we're looking at 7 attacks, 4.66 hits, .77 wounds and Abby's 4+ invul drops that to .388

So even with only 3 attacks (when he should have at least 4 assuming I'm not missing anything) he's not only inflicting more wounds but also inflicting ID.


Am I missing something? It's possible, but I don't think so

Abbadon's hitting on a 5+ and Lelith on a 3+, WS 7 v. WS 9, and you're not factoring in Lelith's Shardnet (-1 Attack to every model in base contact with her). I assumed neither charged; I missed the Shred rule and miscalculated Lelith's to-wound roll, looks like that weights it a bit more towards Abbadon. Rerolling to Wound gives Abbadon a slightly better chance at things with 10.5% chance to wound instead of 9% (rerolling a 2+ doesn't really change a lot), Lelith's wounding on 6% of cases, if Abbadon's got four attacks still that makes it 0.42 wounds per round of combat. I'd put it as victory to Abbadon, but Lelith wounds him once or twice.

On the other hand, Lelith is a full hundred points cheaper than Abbadon, which gives us leeway to put an Archon with an Agonizer in the fight on Lelith's side, who is dealing another 0.62 wounds per combat round, giving the two a fighting chance of killing Abbadon by virtue of higher Initiative.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Wait...bugger, that's changed...never mind, Abbadon is hitting on a 4+ after all, Abbadon wins.

 AnomanderRake wrote:
Lelith's getting an unsaved Wound 11% of the time with 7 Attacks (4 +2 from A League Apart +1 from two hand weapons) at Initiative 9, Abbadon's getting an unsaved Wound 9% of the time with 5 Attacks (4 +1 from two hand weapons) at Initiative 1. I'd actually call it for Lelith if she had Eternal Warrior, but she doesn't, so one hit from Abbadon downs her.

Right, but here's the thing, either Abaddon doesn't have only 5 attacks, or 1 is enough. With the sword on average he is putting out 7-8, 9-10 if it is on the charge, not just 5. And with the Claw that one unsaved wound kills her outright. She really does not stand a chance against him.

Abaddon invokes the powers of Slaanesh, something that is well within his power as the champion of Chaos who has made many pacts with all 4 Gods.

Lelith becomes a plaything in the Warp for eternity.

Or kills him in his sleep, after one wild night

Abby only hits on a 5+ if he rolls a 1 for daemon weapon, you still hit on a 4+ if they have a higher WS up to the point it becomes more than double. Seriously she wounds him on a 6 baring a pain token charge and any of his wounding attacks in return causes her insides to shower about like a pinata.

There is a reason she is almost 100 points cheaper.

Abby VS Swarmy so, might as well continue the carnage.....

"Wait...bugger, that's changed...never mind, Abbadon is hitting on a 4+ after all, Abbadon wins. "

Nope, the chart for close combat hasnt changed in decades.