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 Alpharius wrote:
I think RH will be OK.

In fact, once the actual miniatures are available, and all quality, scale and delivery questions are no longer in question, I'm guessing they'll end up being more than OK!

There's a number of people I've spoken in person with who were interested in the models, but didn't want to commit without a finished product to look at. I think that once they hit retail they'll be sitting in high cotton.

Buzzsaw - I appreciate this post. You present a variety of data that gives a great deal of perspective on the campaign, and I think that, like you, I'm interested in seeing how Kickstarter affects the gaming industry. I appreciate you giving it a more thorough going-over. Fascinating stuff to try and digest.

I see a potential trap: the problem of proportions. When the models finally arrive, they will be either A) truescale or b) heroic.

If a), then all the people who wanted minis to use in 40k will be upset, and we've heard a few of them raise their concerns during the kickstarter. You can imagine how much negativity one backer can raise if he finds out he spent more than $200 on models he can't use--now imagine a dozen or more. RH will also have cut themselves off from one of the most lucrative parts of the wargaming market, as well.

If b), then all the people who backed based on RH's previous output and fine concepts will be devastated. RH's core of enthusiastic backers will spawn some of their harshest critics. RH will lose their reputation and boutique status.

In either case, you are likely going to see a lot of negativity and gnashing of teeth when the models hit the streets. Throw in a delay or two, and you have a Sedition Wars situation, where all most potential customers hear about your product is that it was disappointing in some way.

Showing more renders and prints before the end of the KS may have cost RH tens of thousands of dollars in pledges from one group or the other, but not showing anything during the KS means many backers paid big money with an incomplete picture of what they were getting. It probably won't be as bad as the Kings of War effect, but someone is going to be mad down the line.

Is there any data available on how many of the surge at the end of the timelines are people who'd already seen the kickstarter previously, but had put off committing to it until it was almost over? I wonder if some of the lack of a tail on this one was because a disproportionate number committed early instead of waiting, and it'd be interesting to see how many people put off the decision to commit to projects until the end.

Hmm first post

Good summary, but those wondering should note that it is possible to cap the total amount to an extent, one company I watched producing a Lucida drawing device did this by having no add ons, and a fixed number of "early birds" for each level, opening up new ones at +$1 to the limit of their production capacity, some 10 days out from the finish they were accepting no further backers.

really interesting data, thanks for posting it up.

Too many kickstarters have killed the retail market for their products, e.g. Mantic is practically gone from the German market.

this is a bad example, Dreadball has sold four times as much through retail than they did at kickstarter. ronnie himself said they would never have achieved this without the kickstarter phenomenon to hype the game before release. they've also just released a german language version of the game.

this idea that kickstarter ruins retail sales is a mix of myth and retailers getting freaked out that all of their sales are gone, which is ludicrous when you think about it because there are more than 2500 gamers in the world. mantic's german presence has more to do with distributors fighting over exclusivity for the market.

This might be something specific to KS and the German market

as I've seen specific reports of Mantic, Mierce and at least one other company becoming 'dead' in the German gaming stores after successful KS campaigns

I guess it could be German gamers are very proactive and back KS more heavily than other markets so there's less post KS sale chances?

or German stores may be more prone to following the 'if it's been on KS i'm not stocking it' bandwagon ?

or maybe German distributors are more risk averse so once a KS happens they pull the plug so stores don' even get the chance to stock stuff without a lot of extra hassle

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
This might be something specific to KS and the German market

as I've seen specific reports of Mantic, Mierce and at least one other company becoming 'dead' in the German gaming stores after successful KS campaigns

I guess it could be German gamers are very proactive and back KS more heavily than other markets so there's less post KS sale chances?

or German stores may be more prone to following the 'if it's been on KS i'm not stocking it' bandwagon ?

or maybe German distributors are more risk averse so once a KS happens they pull the plug so stores don' even get the chance to stock stuff without a lot of extra hassle

I'd be delighted to get more info on that!

I'm really just guessing here based on what's been posted in KS threads by folk with German flags beside their names, about their local stores/distributors no longer wanting to be involved with KS companies

It feels like a more uniformly negetive response than I see from UK/USA posters where you get stores doing the same thing, but others embracing KS products (and doing well from it too)

The question is why ?

Is it some peculiarity of the German market (I guess it could be and gave some possible reasons above, but it could be something else entirely)

or the German posters on Dakka & the other forums I visit might have that impression (even if it's not actually the reality) ?

Excellent analyses as always, thanks for doing it Buzz!

This is off topic, but one last thing:

Before kickstarter there was at least one major distributor for Mantic in Germany, now I know of none. Even Battlefield Berlin was very reluctant to take one or two boxes of second wave Dreadball into its program, and usually they stock almost everything by small companies. Battlefield was not happy with the communication with Mantic and not enthusiastic to deal with them. So whatever sales Mantic makes with Dreadball, it seems not to be on the German market, which is a huge market.

Zombicide, Sedition Wars and Super Dungeon Explore also seem to have no distributor in Germany. Seems they can't guarantee stock in sufficient numbers.

 Guildsman wrote:
What really turned me off of the campaign, and what I believe directly and indirectly caused a lot of the ill will amongst the community was the obvious manipulation of stretch goal amounts. Now, I understand that every campaign decides what is an acceptable amount to ask for the next stretch goal based on a variety of factors, including what they feel they can get away with. However, seeing it play out in full view in front of me just seemed dishonest. Shifting the stretch amount between $10k, $20k, and $30k so many times made us question the value of the figures, leading to a lot of the "pledge value" foolishness, which RH made worse by their awful communication.

This is exactly my issue with the campaign too. It seemed to me like they had planned to unlock minis at a level comparable to what other mini KS's did, where a new sculpt would be unlocked every $5-10k. And then they blew the roof off the goal before they had put that down, in such a way that all subsequent unlocking just seemed haphazard.

But, this meshes with my other experience with the company, so I guess it's business as usual. I ordered one of their ork warbosses over a year ago (probably closer to two). I got an email shortly after placing the order, saying that they had made a mistake, and had sent me two warbosses, from different shipping sites. They asked, since they were a small operation, could I return one. I said sure, let me know where to send it and cover shipping and I'll be happy to send it wherever you want. And waited, and waited. And posted in Kroothawk's thread, and PMed with him, and someone else from the company, and waited, and waited. And never received the information. Now, it strikes me as really odd that a company that was so small that they were asking a customer to fix their mistake would then just drop that request. It just screams really bad organizational skills.

And that's what the kickstarter felt like too. They took four months to get it started. And then did so without stated stretch goals, such that I (and probably others) never knew what was actually a stretch goal, and what was just something they were unlocking just because.

In the end, I'm happy with my pledge, but never felt the need to increase it, because I never actually felt like were stretching for anything.

On the whole I dislike stretch goals. I prefer the whole offer to be out there at the beginning, so I can see what I am being asked to support, and choose the level I am happy with.

I didn't pledge mainly because I have zero faith that I would see everything I pledge for reach me before end of 2015 if at all. I just have grave doubts they have the capability and logistical ability to make, cast and ship what they have promised.

The way the KS progress just solidified my fears.

It is not an unreasonable fear.

I still haven't received my PDFs of OGRE. I registered interest in the project before it was made a Kickstarter.

(I wanted the whole game, but it grew so massive that the cost to ship to the UK became prohibitive, so I reduced my pledge. The whole project has been a big downer for me personally, and take much longer than anyone expected.)

Steve Jackson is a publisher with 35 years experience. If he can get a Kickstarter wrong it can go wrong for anyone.

I have to disagree that the 'Raging Heralds' thing was successful. To all appearances RH handed out directives to spread the word but gave no concrete rules about interacting with their client base after said-word was spread.

You absolutely do not want anyone, who is in any way associated to the company or product, demeaning other customers because they find different value in said product. There is no 'right' or 'wrong' way to buy something, you just want them to buy and be damn grateful they did. When threads devolve in back and forth nit-picking about HOW or WHAT someone else loves about it, or expects from it, while still supporting the product, that is a PR cluster-feth.

If I were them, I would have made sure to tell all my heralds and enthusiastic supporters to cultivate interest, whatever form it takes, even if they disagree with the value priority. Never turn a like into a dislike... ever.

 Redbeard wrote:
But, this meshes with my other experience with the company, so I guess it's business as usual. I ordered one of their ork warbosses over a year ago (probably closer to two).

Erm ... Raging Heroes doesn't make Orks

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It is not an unreasonable fear.

I still haven't received my PDFs of OGRE. I registered interest in the project before it was made a Kickstarter.

(I wanted the whole game, but it grew so massive that the cost to ship to the UK became prohibitive, so I reduced my pledge. The whole project has been a big downer for me personally, and take much longer than anyone expected.)

Steve Jackson is a publisher with 35 years experience. If he can get a Kickstarter wrong it can go wrong for anyone.

I'm in the opinion that it is the overall use of stretch goals that hamstrings some of the projects. The phrase that someone used with me a few months back in a discussion was "Eyes too big for stomach."

Companies use these extended goals to entice sales, everyone gets caught up in the momentum, and at the end of the show- reality of logistics and production set in.

RH did the same thing everyone has done, but they did it in a pretty slapped together and there was a pretty half stepped thought out way of doing business. More of trying to please everybody all the time.

We will probably see what sort of logistics they have, or we see more of the same half stepped delays and changes of focus.

 Kroothawk wrote:

 Redbeard wrote:
But, this meshes with my other experience with the company, so I guess it's business as usual. I ordered one of their ork warbosses over a year ago (probably closer to two).

Erm ... Raging Heroes doesn't make Orks

They released this one in March 2012, which fits that timeline. Redbeard posted it was in-hand Jun 2012.

Kroothawk wrote:

 Redbeard wrote:
But, this meshes with my other experience with the company, so I guess it's business as usual. I ordered one of their ork warbosses over a year ago (probably closer to two).

Erm ... Raging Heroes doesn't make Orks

Sci-fi orcs are orks. Are you really quibbling over spelling now?

Comment on OP's work: Great analysis. Great to see the graphs so others can compare results.
I wish the Robotech kickstarter was in the list as well: they appear to have been VERY successful.

I agree with others that the sketches show the bones of what they plan on making but the heroic / truescale or true to sketch methods of production should have been clearly defined.
The heroic 28mm will make 40k players happy to be playable with their models, truescale / true to sketch will make the artists happy to have a svelte model to paint.

Managing expectations is important BUT by not defining which it is, you do not have either group drop out of the backing.
A bit evil perhaps but customers are still getting that model.

Marketing is like politics: do not alienate a potential customer by nailing down the details.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
On the whole I dislike stretch goals. I prefer the whole offer to be out there at the beginning, so I can see what I am being asked to support, and choose the level I am happy with.

I agree with this. I've backed quite a few nongaming Kickstarter projects, and stretch goals tend to be a rarity among them. I pledge for what I want, and I do not expect to get something more than that. When I go buy a car, I don't expect to see a sign saying I'll get X free accessories if they sell Y cars that month.

Also, it is possible to put a cap on a Kickstarter project. I believe any and all pledge levels can have a limit to the number of pledges.

Fascinating writeup and graphs, Buzzsaw! Thanks very much for putting in the effort to do this!

Your custom / comparison graphs are definitely the most interesting to me:

Buzzsaw wrote:

I think it definitely shows your points:

-RH did a really great job prepping their campaign ahead of time!
-But the middle/end of the campaign suffered as a result of some of the communication and decisions made throughout.

Still a huge success, and it is really informative to show it side-by-side with other campaigns like that. Again, cheers for doing it!

Interesting write up. After experiencing the negativity on the thread in news and rumours I'm not sure if I'm ever going to read a kickstarter thread again. I just really want my miniatures.

Things that struck me about this campaign, people complaining about a French company updating out of US time , coming from Aus I'm used to never having updates in my time zone and found it rather strange that some expected updates to happen in "their" time.

All in all, I found this kickstarter was run in a way that i found entirely palatable , I'm not looking for a marketing deluge and am quite happy with an update a day.

I think it's not so much the amount of updates as to their content, or lack thereof, and the comment down the line that invalidated it or changed it in an important way.

Since I'm not on a smartphone, I got the updates whenever they came and that was fine by me as well. The number of updates in the beginning was very low, imho, They became more frequent, but I could not say I was excited by what was being communicated.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It is not an unreasonable fear.

I still haven't received my PDFs of OGRE. I registered interest in the project before it was made a Kickstarter.

(I wanted the whole game, but it grew so massive that the cost to ship to the UK became prohibitive, so I reduced my pledge. The whole project has been a big downer for me personally, and take much longer than anyone expected.)

Steve Jackson is a publisher with 35 years experience. If he can get a Kickstarter wrong it can go wrong for anyone.

Too old to rant about Steve. Sorry about your problems.

 Kroothawk wrote:
Yeah, obviously I deny the obvious fact that 200,000$ raised in the first 2 hours is a sign of supreme failure. Only a blind fanboy could spin these 200,000$ to another sign of success, right?

The initial burst was a success of the pre-Kickstarter buildup, not the Kickstarter itself. It happened before they posted a single update.

 Guildsman wrote:

 PsychoticStorm wrote:
What dos this mean? For me it means RH failed to expand and acquire more backers from their core market, that can potentially be a bad thing.

This is possibly the most worrisome idea that's come along so far. What happens when TGG gets to retail? Will there be a market for it?

I don't think there will be. There's no foundation on which to build an army - you start with $43 for 10 guardswoman-equivalents and it rises from there, and there's no cheap alternative that won't look terribly out of place. Some people will pay that much for guardsmen, like Forgeworld's Elysians, but they're also the ones who have already dropped $500 during the Kickstarter.

 AlexHolker wrote:

 Kroothawk wrote:
Yeah, obviously I deny the obvious fact that 200,000$ raised in the first 2 hours is a sign of supreme failure. Only a blind fanboy could spin these 200,000$ to another sign of success, right?

The initial burst was a success of the pre-Kickstarter buildup, not the Kickstarter itself. It happened before they posted a single update.

I think what Kroot is getting at, and maybe being missed in the OP, is that in a way maybe this number of backers was all the kickstarter was going to have.

Lets say there were 2500 people who would have backed this kickstarter.
The 'typical' gaming Kickstarter debuts on the website, perhaps with a few days pre-warning on their own website. In 12 hours or so someone on DakkaDakka picks up on it, starts a thread. In 72 hours, you have 250 backers. Then it chugs along for 3 weeks, gaining another 1000 backers; and in the last 72 hours, it gains 1250 backers from all those fence-sitters who wanted to see how good things would be at the very end.

TGG instead had a 4 month advertising campaign. The effect of this campaign was to *shift* people from the middle-3-weeks and last-72-hours group to the first-72-hours group. People knew about the campaign before it started, the didn't hear about it on DakkaDakka after 2 days were already done.


That's just a theory. Perhaps the advertising campaign didn't bring in any more backers, it just changed the time at which those backers made their pledges by making them aware earlier. I'm not saying the campaign was perfectly or badly run, just that this could be a possibility.

Perhaps another part is that the campaign was running shortly after many people looking at alternative 40k models were reeling from their Deadzone pledges?

Redbeard wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:

 Redbeard wrote:
But, this meshes with my other experience with the company, so I guess it's business as usual. I ordered one of their ork warbosses over a year ago (probably closer to two).

Erm ... Raging Heroes doesn't make Orks

Sci-fi orcs are orks. Are you really quibbling over spelling now?

Simple answer: Just forgot about that one mini. It was a one shot (incl. fantasy variant) not fitting the rest of their releases. The expression "one of their ork warbosses" misled me.

AlexHolker wrote:
The initial burst was a success of the pre-Kickstarter buildup, not the Kickstarter itself. It happened before they posted a single update.

Advertising a kickstarter is of course part of the campaign. And one major critique of this campaign is that the advertising (incl. social media campaign) was too successful and reached 70-80% of all potential early backers, concentrating their pledges on the first two hours instead of the first two weeks as usual. Lessons learnt: Never do effective advertising, people pretending that the advertising never happened will pretent that mobilising all early backers is a sign of incompetence.

MajorTom11 wrote:You absolutely do not want anyone, who is in any way associated to the company or product, demeaning other customers because they find different value in said product.

Surprisingly, the quality of the product was rarely the topic of the thread or the discussion (except for the short discussion of the troop renders). People talked about how the campaign was done. And the one or two heralds, who were losely associated with the company, didn't demean other posters AFAIK.

Thanks for the post, Buzz. Interesting reading - again.

 Kroothawk wrote:

Yeah, obviously I deny the obvious fact that 200,000$ raised in the first 2 hours is a sign of supreme failure.

Pretty sure that no-one is stating or even obliquely implying that.

Then read again the quote I responded to.