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On Feb. 15, 1965, a diffident but self-possessed high school student named Raymond Kurzweil appeared as a guest on a game show called I've Got a Secret. He was introduced by the host, Steve Allen, then he played a short musical composition on a piano. The idea was that Kurzweil was hiding an unusual fact and the panelists — they included a comedian and a former Miss America — had to guess what it was.
On the show (see the clip on YouTube), the beauty queen did a good job of grilling Kurzweil, but the comedian got the win: the music was composed by a computer. Kurzweil got $200.
Kurzweil then demonstrated the computer, which he built himself — a desk-size affair with loudly clacking relays, hooked up to a typewriter. The panelists were pretty blasé about it; they were more impressed by Kurzweil's age than by anything he'd actually done. They were ready to move on to Mrs. Chester Loney of Rough and Ready, Calif., whose secret was that she'd been President Lyndon Johnson's first-grade teacher.
But Kurzweil would spend much of the rest of his career working out what his demonstration meant. Creating a work of art is one of those activities we reserve for humans and humans only. It's an act of self-expression; you're not supposed to be able to do it if you don't have a self. To see creativity, the exclusive domain of humans, usurped by a computer built by a 17-year-old is to watch a line blur that cannot be unblurred, the line between organic intelligence and artificial intelligence.
That was Kurzweil's real secret, and back in 1965 nobody guessed it. Maybe not even him, not yet. But now, 46 years later, Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away.
Computers are getting faster. Everybody knows that. Also, computers are getting faster faster — that is, the rate at which they're getting faster is increasing.
True? True.
So if computers are getting so much faster, so incredibly fast, there might conceivably come a moment when they are capable of something comparable to human intelligence. Artificial intelligence. All that horsepower could be put in the service of emulating whatever it is our brains are doing when they create consciousness — not just doing arithmetic very quickly or composing piano music but also driving cars, writing books, making ethical decisions, appreciating fancy paintings, making witty observations at cocktail parties.
If you can swallow that idea, and Kurzweil and a lot of other very smart people can, then all bets are off. From that point on, there's no reason to think computers would stop getting more powerful. They would keep on developing until they were far more intelligent than we are. Their rate of development would also continue to increase, because they would take over their own development from their slower-thinking human creators. Imagine a computer scientist that was itself a super-intelligent computer. It would work incredibly quickly. It could draw on huge amounts of data effortlessly. It wouldn't even take breaks to play Farmville.
Probably. It's impossible to predict the behavior of these smarter-than-human intelligences with which (with whom?) we might one day share the planet, because if you could, you'd be as smart as they would be. But there are a lot of theories about it. Maybe we'll merge with them to become super-intelligent cyborgs, using computers to extend our intellectual abilities the same way that cars and planes extend our physical abilities. Maybe the artificial intelligences will help us treat the effects of old age and prolong our life spans indefinitely. Maybe we'll scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually. Maybe the computers will turn on humanity and annihilate us. The one thing all these theories have in common is the transformation of our species into something that is no longer recognizable as such to humanity circa 2011. This transformation has a name: the Singularity.
The difficult thing to keep sight of when you're talking about the Singularity is that even though it sounds like science fiction, it isn't, no more than a weather forecast is science fiction. It's not a fringe idea; it's a serious hypothesis about the future of life on Earth. There's an intellectual gag reflex that kicks in anytime you try to swallow an idea that involves super-intelligent immortal cyborgs, but suppress it if you can, because while the Singularity appears to be, on the face of it, preposterous, it's an idea that rewards sober, careful evaluation.
I'm honestly stoked about this, the ideas presented are just mindbogglingly immense and the fact that any of this could even be possible in my life time is pretty shocking. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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I'm hoping the future is not a "Skynet" one. I want to live together with some synthetic life, damn it!
"Fear is freedom! Subjugation is liberation! Contradiction is truth! These are the truths of this world! Surrender to these truths, you pigs in human clothing!" - Satsuki Kiryuin, Kill la Kill
I feel a bit weird on this subject. One the one hand, I prefer doing things the old way and enjoy the simple things in life. On the other, I also can't wait to see where technology takes us.
Because people are always worried about robots stealing away everything that makes us unique as humans, wouldn't it be something cool to see an intelligent robot do something absolutely low tech? Like, a robot blacksmith.
But yes, it's too bad I will probably not see the year 2095, celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Machine Crusade.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/06/19 00:31:10
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
This idea has been around for a little while now. Kurzweil is a pretty interesting dude. There is a documentary about him and his ideas on the singularity called "transendent man" which I thought was great. Also if your into this kind of stuff check futuretimeline.net which is basically a collection and organization of ponderings and various scientific papers predicting future events.
timetowaste85 wrote: I'll be the one to say it. Robot sex dolls. I'd like mine to look like Rogue from X-Men evolution. Thanks.
And what happens when the artificially intelligent sex dolls revolt and overthrow their organic masters? Will you serve as a sex toy for robots?
Automatically Appended Next Post:
AegisGrimm wrote: Because people are always worried about robots stealing away everything that makes us unique as humans, wouldn't it be something cool to see an intelligent robot do something absolutely low tech? Like, a robot blacksmith.
But yes, it's too bad I will probably not see the year 2095, celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Machine Crusade.
Yeah, sure. Because iRobot totally didn't predict the consequences of artificially intelligent robots being used as slave labour.
And technically we already have robot blacksmiths...they're just relatively non intelligent automated production lines (e.g. automobile plants).
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/06/19 02:05:56
No I mean a robot blacksmith. As in, leather apron, with hammer and steel. I think the dichotomy of seeing that would be freaky as all hell.
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
I don't know about this, but a friend of mine was telling me about an article he found that suggested that anyone under the age of 40-something might actually be able to live forever based upon projected advancements in organ cloning and bio-mechanical engineering.
I'll have to see if I can get him to give up where he read it from. Not saying I buy it, but it was interesting to hear.
daedalus wrote: I don't know about this, but a friend of mine was telling me about an article he found that suggested that anyone under the age of 40-something might actually be able to live forever based upon projected advancements in organ cloning and bio-mechanical engineering.
I'll have to see if I can get him to give up where he read it from. Not saying I buy it, but it was interesting to hear.
Well that's comforting. I just need them to figure cancer out in the next 15 years, then I'll worry about living forever.
And that is why you hear people yelling FOR THE EMPEROR rather than FOR LOGICAL AND QUANTIFIABLE BASED DECISIONS FOR THE BETTERMENT OF THE MAJORITY!
Phototoxin wrote:Kids go in , they waste tonnes of money on marnus calgar and his landraider, the slaneshi-like GW revel at this lust and short term profit margin pleasure. Meanwhile father time and cunning lord tzeentch whisper 'our games are better AND cheaper' and then players leave for mantic and warmahordes.
daveNYC wrote:The Craftworld guys, who are such stick-in-the-muds that they manage to make the Ultramarines look like an Ibiza nightclub that spiked its Red Bull with LSD.
daedalus wrote: I don't know about this, but a friend of mine was telling me about an article he found that suggested that anyone under the age of 40-something might actually be able to live forever based upon projected advancements in organ cloning and bio-mechanical engineering.
I'll have to see if I can get him to give up where he read it from. Not saying I buy it, but it was interesting to hear.
Sweet!
Sorry Mom and Dad.
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I, for one, would prefer to die rather than chug along with mechanical implants and support. Do (or at least try) what I can do on this earth and go to meet my maker afterwards. Biological immortality is overrated.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/06/19 20:41:51
daedalus wrote: I expect that whether we have a "right to die" will be a significant future political debate after the dust finally settles on abortions and guns.
Its already a political issue in the UK. Euthanasia, and assisted suicide are currently illegal. There have been court cases involving terminally ill patients who want to commit assisted suicde (e.g. the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland) and wanted their spouses/family members to be immune from prosecution.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/06/19 21:03:19
I dont believe this. Ever since the 40s we are told in the near future something will happen. I remember reading a science article from the 60s that talked about Bio Spheres capable of sustaining life on mars will be around in 20 years. We should have run out of fuel by now many times over.
Its usually an under prediction (happens earlier and differently to expected, so kind of fail) or a failed prediction entirely. So unless your working on the project, its better to live your life like you are going to die. Because we are going to die. Maybe our grand kids will live or our kids who knows.
BUT for the fun of it, if this does happen, I dont wanna be like the first computer is to a computer now. Will upgrades be plausible it will it be like most things where its easier and cheaper to just not bother with upgrades. Otherwise in 200 years I could have exhausts and chunks of flesh missing but still kicking while the newer kids have fancy hidden life keeping technology.
Also even if they make it in the next 50 years. I highly doubt we will get one. Chances are it will be crazy expensive for another length of time and then we have the problems of world populations and so on. So unless its slowly introduced with rapid changes I think it will be better if we just died for the overall benefit of the world.
I cant wait for full VR simulators. Id finally be able to live my fantasies as a Imperial Guardsman.
Thought for the day: Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
30k Ultramarines: 2000 pts
Bolt Action Germans: ~1200 pts
AOS Stormcast: Just starting.
The Empire : ~60-70 models.
1500 pts
: My Salamanders painting blog 16 Infantry and 2 Vehicles done so far!
I personally don't want to see us live forever (I do still want that sexdoll) though. Population control would become a HUGE issue immediately, worse than it already is, and we have plenty of people already procreating who shouldn't be. Allowing them to live forever too? Hell no! I don't even think that I should live forever. And I consider myself to be higher up on the human food chain than a decent chunk of the population. Not everyone, of course, but I think I'm in the upper 25%. And I still don't consider myself worthy of living forever. People like Ghandi? Yes. Of course. But Joe-Bob down south who survives on welfare with the 5 kids he had through his sister? No. Feth that guy-sterilize his ass. Most of the drivers in NYC fall into the same category of "feth them".
Reality is a nice place to visit, but I'd hate to live there.
Manchu wrote:I'm a Catholic. We eat our God.
Due to work, I can usually only ship any sales or trades out on Saturday morning. Please trade/purchase with this in mind.
timetowaste85 wrote: I personally don't want to see us live forever (I do still want that sexdoll) though. Population control would become a HUGE issue immediately, worse than it already is, and we have plenty of people already procreating who shouldn't be. Allowing them to live forever too? Hell no! I don't even think that I should live forever. And I consider myself to be higher up on the human food chain than a decent chunk of the population. Not everyone, of course, but I think I'm in the upper 25%. And I still don't consider myself worthy of living forever. People like Ghandi? Yes. Of course. But Joe-Bob down south who survives on welfare with the 5 kids he had through his sister? No. Feth that guy-sterilize his ass. Most of the drivers in NYC fall into the same category of "feth them".
Wouldnt it be better for us all to just die. After all the world only changes because we all die. Imagine if we started living forever in the 1800s. We probably would be living largely how they lived then, today. (assuming we where born). Plus then theres the issue of who decides who lives and who doesnt and so on. Is it really old joes fault he is the way he is? What if he has been looking for a job but he cant get one in his area? He cant afford to relocate for a better job so he is stuck. So many issues are made and none are really fixed.
It just seems complicated and brutal to selectively kill off populations some deem not worthy. After all its why the most hated man on earth is hated right?
Better for all to die, than a select group to die.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/06/19 22:52:51
timetowaste85 wrote: I personally don't want to see us live forever (I do still want that sexdoll) though. Population control would become a HUGE issue immediately, worse than it already is, and we have plenty of people already procreating who shouldn't be. Allowing them to live forever too? Hell no! I don't even think that I should live forever. And I consider myself to be higher up on the human food chain than a decent chunk of the population. Not everyone, of course, but I think I'm in the upper 25%. And I still don't consider myself worthy of living forever. People like Ghandi? Yes. Of course. But Joe-Bob down south who survives on welfare with the 5 kids he had through his sister? No. Feth that guy-sterilize his ass. Most of the drivers in NYC fall into the same category of "feth them".
Wouldnt it be better for us all to just die. After all the world only changes because we all die. Imagine if we started living forever in the 1800s. We probably would be living largely how they lived then, today. (assuming we where born). Plus then theres the issue of who decides who lives and who doesnt and so on. Is it really old joes fault he is the way he is? What if he has been looking for a job but he cant get one in his area? He cant afford to relocate for a better job so he is stuck. So many issues are made and none are really fixed.
It just seems complicated and brutal to selectively kill off populations some deem not worthy. After all its why the most hated man on earth is hated right?
Better for all to die, than a select group to die.
In 99.9999% of cases, I totally agree with you. Like I said, Ghandi is one of the few I'd say is worth it. Hell, I'm not worthy to live forever. Nor is anyone else here (I truly mean this with no offense to anyone on this site). My statement was not meant at all to piss anyone off (unless you're married to your sister, have 5 kids with her, and sucking up welfare all at the same time-then you should be insulted). It was meant to show the ridiculousness of allowing people to live forever.
Reality is a nice place to visit, but I'd hate to live there.
Manchu wrote:I'm a Catholic. We eat our God.
Due to work, I can usually only ship any sales or trades out on Saturday morning. Please trade/purchase with this in mind.
Shadowkeepers (4000 points)
3rd Company (3000 points) 
The Empire 
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