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 Inquisitor Bob wrote:
To be honest,
I can't help but think that complaints on dakka is hardly turning the company around..
GW/KIRBY don't do market research.. That way they don't had to show their investors that research.. (Which IMHO would be bad... Very bad)...
So why are Dakkanuaghts not getting together and... I don't know.. If not a market research document then a petition to all the major investing companies.. (Without nerd rage or preamble)
There are enough members that someone would now how to present a professional dossier... And it would at least have a chance to do so much more than nerd rage over first world problems..

Because the investors don't care if we're happy or not, they don't care if GW are refining their plastic from cute orphans, all they care about is a dividend, and, in the main, they have received it.

The only practical option on the table is to withhold as much cash as possible from GW at every opportunity, buying third party, second hand, buying from independents so GW only receive wholesale value, cumulatively it will all count. If enough people are dissatisfied enough to do this, then their income will fall, they will be unable to pay a dividend and then everyone in a position to affect change will have to act.

 Azreal13 wrote:

 Inquisitor Bob wrote:
To be honest,
I can't help but think that complaints on dakka is hardly turning the company around..
GW/KIRBY don't do market research.. That way they don't had to show their investors that research.. (Which IMHO would be bad... Very bad)...
So why are Dakkanuaghts not getting together and... I don't know.. If not a market research document then a petition to all the major investing companies.. (Without nerd rage or preamble)
There are enough members that someone would now how to present a professional dossier... And it would at least have a chance to do so much more than nerd rage over first world problems..

Because the investors don't care if we're happy or not, they don't care if GW are refining their plastic from cute orphans, all they care about is a dividend, and, in the main, they have received it.

The only practical option on the table is to withhold as much cash as possible from GW at every opportunity, buying third party, second hand, buying from independents so GW only receive wholesale value, cumulatively it will all count. If enough people are dissatisfied enough to do this, then their income will fall, they will be unable to pay a dividend and then everyone in a position to affect change will have to act.

Yeah, exactly what Azrael said. While you can always say the typical "companies exist to make money" blah-blah-blah argument, there is a considerable difference in the GW of older years versus the GW today. And that difference is that the current GW does not value their customers. At all. In any way. In fact, they probably think we are simply big kids who mindlessly buy models they themselves see little merit in.

It keeps going back to the TSR thing, over and over. They seem to think that having consideration for customer perceptions if a foolish idea to be derided. They compare themselves to Apple, except Apple actually *does* try to make a product their customers want. They've done tons of research they have a hug marketing campaign.

Kirby must have been watching Futurama at one point and say Fry saying "Shut up and take my money!" and, with a tear in his eye, thought "if only all of our customers were like that!"

That's not a great strategy.. And would probably take 10 years to fruition..
My point is investors aren't stupid... They know where their dividends come from, and who pays for that profit.. And they know it's not Kirby.. And when a large percentage publicly boycott due to policy then it in their interest if not their JOBS to a least investigate further..

They leave Kirby alone to do his job because... As far as they know.. He IS the industry expert he says he is.. And they have no idea just how out of touch with the industry and his customers he is... But they're professional enough to know how much an out of touch company will cost them unmanaged..

As has been pointed out, GW is small potatoes, someone characterised them as the sort of company you'd give to the Junior or Intern to manage at the investor's end.

The investors simply don't care enough to get involved.

If you managed to convince one or more that there was a problem, they wouldn't very likely get involved, they'd more than likely just sell their stake, which, if handled incorrectly, could devalue the stock price, but that's just a made up number anyway, it makes very little difference to the running of the company, the income from customers buying stuff is immensely more vital.

It would hurt Kirby personally though.,,,

EDIT
If everyone stopped buying GW's product, it won't take ten years, I guarantee you'd start to see action in ten weeks.

Though, given that there is no reaction and sales are already falling... the reaction of investors might just be to divest themselves of the stock, until some folks buy it - just to sell at the dead cat bounce.

GW is small enough potatoes that they might not bother to revive it.

The Auld Grump

 -Loki- wrote:
So what would you say, you do here?

Kirby has PEOPLE SKILLS! Why can't you people understand?!

Yeah, he can gauge how good a lawyer or game designer someone is by how firm their handshake is and how much their eyes twinkle. THAT is people skills, people.

I thought such determinations required at least a couch..?

 Inquisitor Bob wrote:
And it would at least have a chance to do so much more than nerd rage over first world problems..

What, like that there you just posted?

I don't think there's much anybody can do at this point. Write a letter? Get people to stop - or merely reduce - spending? Sounds too much like the weekly call to boycott or petition that used to go on at Warseer. At the very outset it'll be like trying to herd cats, and if you even manage that no-one important will likely care. (Especially, as TheAuldGrump says, sales are already going down the pan)

I'm content to sit and watch, whatever happens. I don't really want GW to collapse before turning sane, but I did whatever amount of grieving is due to a toy shop, long ago.

 Inquisitor Bob wrote:
That's not a great strategy.. And would probably take 10 years to fruition..

Errr...its pretty much the best strategy. And really the only one guaranteed to work. It'd also take a lot less than 10 years.

If you stop buying, and I stop buying, and Azrael stops buying, etc, ad nauseum, eventually enough people stop to make an impact. Clearly we've all reached a certain point, seeing as sales have continued to drop, and revenue decreased in spite of increased prices. Sounds like a lot of people have left GW in recent times.

Unless you have a better strategy, I'm all ears. Corporations speak money. I'm speaking their language by not saying a thing.

I think KIrby is dialing it in now.

He can be shown the door and get a golden parachute or the company and investors just wait for his retirement where he still gets compensated through share buyback, dividends, pension or whatever else he is due. Plus a non exec role.

Like others have said GW is too small for most investment funds to bother taking too much trouble over. I have seen funds do company take overs for hundreds of millions - see the business falter - and not bat an eyelid.

Money talks and in a world where the mention of trillions is now commonplace - a trifle - the success or failure of a small toy soldier company is way beyond notice.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Because the investors don't care if we're happy or not, they don't care if GW are refining their plastic from cute orphans, all they care about is a dividend, and, in the main, they have received it.

Contrary to popular belief, most investors do not jump for joy just because dividends are paid. Most want the value of their investment to increase. Dividends do not necessarily do that and, considering the stock value lost this year, do little to offset that loss. In addition, most industrial shareholders (like GW's vast majority), do not like dividends because they create UBIT (unrelated business income tax) for the fund.

 Inquisitor Bob wrote:
They leave Kirby alone to do his job because... As far as they know.. He IS the industry expert he says he is.. And they have no idea just how out of touch with the industry and his customers he is... But they're professional enough to know how much an out of touch company will cost them unmanaged..

They leave Kirby alone because they don't care. If he tanks the value of the company, investors can just sell from his and buy stock in a company not so mismanaged. I agree that probably most fund investors do not understand their market but a lot of their retail ones do. Additionally, the funds may not understand the market and up until this report Kirby might have had them snowed. But any investor realizes complete incompetence when they read a general statement, from any company, of "we don't do market research because we know better than the market" when the revenues a tanking and you open up a report by commenting about how bad your numbers are.

Investors are not that stupid and it has little to do with knowing the market and everything to do with simple business common sense.

 Wayshuba wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Because the investors don't care if we're happy or not, they don't care if GW are refining their plastic from cute orphans, all they care about is a dividend, and, in the main, they have received it.

Contrary to popular belief, most investors do not jump for joy just because dividends are paid. Most want the value of their investment to increase. Dividends do not necessarily do that and, considering the stock value lost this year, do little to offset that loss. In addition, most industrial shareholders (like GW's vast majority), do not like dividends because they create UBIT (unrelated business income tax) for the fund.

I'm aware, it was more a case of simplifying the point for the sake of brevity.

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
I actually think that GW's idea of charging crapton for their models has actually had some positive effects for their product sales that aren't showing, and here's why; there will 100% always be a very large amount of people who will buy their stuff so long as it is made. Why? Because we've (I am one of them) have spent a RIDICULOUS amount of money on it. For me to start to play another board game now is an incredibly stupid idea because
a) like most gamers I know I only have time for one game, and that game is going to be the one that I have put the money into
b) I've put this much money into them that I will take the dicking around because if I quit the hobby I have wasted thousands on their stuff, never to use it again.

c) People don't know other systems than WHFB/40k and assume all wargames just work like that.

Fact is... they don't.

There are many, many games that have streamlined rules. You know, rules where you can play with a beginner using the actual rules and not some half-assed toned down version. DBA's combat rules span over... 5 pages! And yet, it's a hugely popular historical ruleset, not something that's only played by 8 year old kids (they usually play 40k). Streamlined doesn't mean dumbed down.
Or maybe Go and Chess are the dumbest games ever created by the human mind.

There are many, many games that don't require a huge monetary investment. Then again, DBA. Three armies, and enough spare unit to build a forth one cost me... less than £50 (ship. incl.). Wanna start X-Wing? Just buy two starter packs, one Y-Wing, one TIE Advanced (because, hey... it's Vader's ship!) and you're done. Cost me less than 100€.
A naval wargame perhaps? Just ordered a 1200+pts french fleet for Trafalgar. 20£. Yup, that's a twenty. Including shipping, of course.

And there are many, many games that don't require you to invest lots of time. DBA again! Most games last less than one hour. X-Wing again! No painting, you just unpack all the stuff and you're good to go. Trafalgar again! My french fleet is made of seven whips, and while I may spend some time to do some rigging, it's by no means necessary, especially in the 1:2400 scale.

And maybe these three things are GW's current problem.

Litcheur wrote:
one TIE Interceptor (because, hey... it's Vader's ship!)

That'd be the Advanced.

 Platuan4th wrote:

Litcheur wrote:
one TIE Interceptor (because, hey... it's Vader's ship!)

That'd be the Advanced.

Yeah... errr... right.

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
I actually think that GW's idea of charging crapton for their models has actually had some positive effects for their product sales that aren't showing, and here's why; there will 100% always be a very large amount of people who will buy their stuff so long as it is made. Why? Because we've (I am one of them) have spent a RIDICULOUS amount of money on it. For me to start to play another board game now is an incredibly stupid idea because
a) like most gamers I know I only have time for one game, and that game is going to be the one that I have put the money into
b) I've put this much money into them that I will take the dicking around because if I quit the hobby I have wasted thousands on their stuff, never to use it again.

This is what is referred to as the "Sunk Cost Fallacy."

In a nutshell, the money you've put into GW in the past is gone. You're not going to get it back. No matter how long you stick with the game, that money is gone. The money you've spent in the past is not going to make the product any better of an investment, and this emotional attachment you have to money you've spent in the past is preventing you from making better, more well informed decisions with your money going forward. Continuing on with GW might very well be the best financial bet for your future, but merely sticking with it because of the money you've spent in the past is a self-limiting rationale.

It's the same reason that sports teams stick with high-priced stars long after they stop being productive on the team. How often do you hear a statement, "They can't bench Player X; he's got a $XX Million contract!" It ignores the fact that the money is already spent and has no bearing on what the best decision for the future might be.

Here's a great explanation about this concept:

http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

The beginning quote:

The Misconception: You make rational decisions based on the future value of objects, investments and experiences.

The Truth: Your decisions are tainted by the emotional investments you accumulate, and the more you invest in something the harder it becomes to abandon it.

I learned about Sunk Cost fallacy in Economics 101-102. Kind of one of the contributing factors against the idea that humans are rational agents we can rely on to steer economies

Would this pitfall in economic thinking explain GW's current apparent/predicted doubling-down of their (allegedly) failing business strategy?

sciencemile wrote:
I learned about Sunk Cost fallacy in Economics 101-102. Kind of one of the contributing factors against the idea that humans are rational agents we can rely on to steer economies

Would this pitfall in economic thinking explain GW's current apparent/predicted doubling-down of their (allegedly) failing business strategy?

I'd argue that no, it isn't. In their minds, nothing is wrong. You have to acknowledge a problem on some level to start into the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Seen the share price lately ?

Maybe people are waking up, to the mess GW's in.

It seems Matt Ward left GW in May. I find the timing significant, as it allowed GW to roll his redundancy payment into last year's exceptional costs.

Of course he was also one of their main codex writers, so what this may portend for future releases is up for speculation.

Ward is out and isn't that the same time period that James from Mantic went to GW.

Can James turn things around for GW with better rules writing and better codecii? Is this change in the air for GW and a more prosperous company in the future?

If the share price continues to fall, it likely means one or more of the institutional investors is slowly selling out. To my knowledge, they generally divest slowly so as not to cause a panic because they own so many shares.

There's been a few trades. http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=GAW&share=games_workshop
Nothing unusual.

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
I honestly think that people put too much emphasis on these people that do jump ship compared to those who stick around. For every person that has stopped the game due to what they feel is unfair pricing there are many more who stick around because they aren't unhappy enough to change and the pricing has caused them to commit to the game for the long haul.

As a fellow Australian, I don't know how someone can be knowledgeable of the greater hobby and not feel abused when seeing the prices Games Workshop feel they need to charge for their products, especially seeing the effort they've gone through trying to stop us (in particular, Australians and New Zealanders). They're even, right now, trying to put through the limitations they did in the US to stop stockists selling their product online if they don't have a brick and mortar store. There's an investigatory statement on the ACCC's website right now.

Another point - if you've sunk thousands of dollars into 40k, what more do you have to buy? I sunk just over a grand into my Tyranids at full retail, which has gotten me well over 2000pts and a bio-titan. There's not much that you're going to miss out on trying a new game. Your 40k stuff doesn't immediately melt into a puddle of plastic and aerated resin.

Personally, I recently decided to give Malifaux a try. It cost me about $120, which got me the rulebook, a crew (Lilith) and an additional box (Nephilim) which puts me at the maximum point level. Even if I was still actively buying stuff for my Tyranids, that would be what, one less Harpy? To have a complete list and the rules for another game to try?

I personally don't feel the need to 'commit for the long haul' to a company that is actively trying to rob me while removing content to later rob me by asking me to buy it separately, when there's plenty of companies out there who want my money and are willing to give me value for it.

 loki old fart wrote:
Seen the share price lately ?

Maybe people are waking up, to the mess GW's in.

A stock chart over the course of a month doesn't necessarily mean anything. Look at July 21st, the stock was lower than it is currently.

Nor does the value of the stock necessarily indicate the health of the company.

In this case... I believe the stock to be over valued, but that has more to do with the stock market than what the survival of the company looks like.

I sometimes wonder if a good deal of the initial stock for GW was bought by gamers, folks that wanted a slice of GW to call their own... Only for that first wave to sell of the stock, bit by bit, as life happens, as life so often does.

College, marriage, a child, a child going to college....

The Auld Grump

 -Loki- wrote:

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
I honestly think that people put too much emphasis on these people that do jump ship compared to those who stick around. For every person that has stopped the game due to what they feel is unfair pricing there are many more who stick around because they aren't unhappy enough to change and the pricing has caused them to commit to the game for the long haul.

As a fellow Australian, I don't know how someone can be knowledgeable of the greater hobby and not feel abused when seeing the prices Games Workshop feel they need to charge for their products, especially seeing the effort they've gone through trying to stop us (in particular, Australians and New Zealanders). They're even, right now, trying to put through the limitations they did in the US to stop stockists selling their product online if they don't have a brick and mortar store. There's an investigatory statement on the ACCC's website right now.

Another point - if you've sunk thousands of dollars into 40k, what more do you have to buy? ...
... ...

Since GW frequently change the main rulebook and the individual codexes, you need to buy new rules and codexes for any army you own, or you fall out of step with everyone else. Since new rules and codexes also introduce powerful new units like Flyers and Lords of War, you also need to buy new model kits or your army becomes weaker as time goes on as other people's armies get upgraded. Not to mention units being written out of the rules -- I have two Mycetic Spore pods, for instance -- which reduce the army you already own.

The way around this is not to stick with an older edition like 5th or some agreed mash-up of editions. (4th edition Tau codex is rubbish, for example, so you would need to use some stuff from 6th.) This can work as long as your local playing group agrees.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 TheAuldGrump wrote:
Nor does the value of the stock necessarily indicate the health of the company.

In this case... I believe the stock to be over valued, but that has more to do with the stock market than what the survival of the company looks like.

I sometimes wonder if a good deal of the initial stock for GW was bought by gamers, folks that wanted a slice of GW to call their own... Only for that first wave to sell of the stock, bit by bit, as life happens, as life so often does.

College, marriage, a child, a child going to college....

The Auld Grump

Yes, that could easily be true.

Over 40% of the shares are held by people whose holdings are under 3%.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 -Loki- wrote:

 thetallestgiraffe wrote:
I honestly think that people put too much emphasis on these people that do jump ship compared to those who stick around. For every person that has stopped the game due to what they feel is unfair pricing there are many more who stick around because they aren't unhappy enough to change and the pricing has caused them to commit to the game for the long haul.

As a fellow Australian, I don't know how someone can be knowledgeable of the greater hobby and not feel abused when seeing the prices Games Workshop feel they need to charge for their products, especially seeing the effort they've gone through trying to stop us (in particular, Australians and New Zealanders). They're even, right now, trying to put through the limitations they did in the US to stop stockists selling their product online if they don't have a brick and mortar store. There's an investigatory statement on the ACCC's website right now.

Another point - if you've sunk thousands of dollars into 40k, what more do you have to buy? ...
... ...

Since GW frequently change the main rulebook and the individual codexes, you need to buy new rules and codexes for any army you own, or you fall out of step with everyone else. Since new rules and codexes also introduce powerful new units like Flyers and Lords of War, you also need to buy new model kits or your army becomes weaker as time goes on as other people's armies get upgraded. Not to mention units being written out of the rules -- I have two Mycetic Spore pods, for instance -- which reduce the army you already own.

Well yeah, but at the point of having sunk 'thousands' of dollars into the game, you're probably coasting on what you have. New editions would mean a new book, new codex, some new kits if you want them. You're not spending thousands of dollars again on an edition change. Depending on your competitiveness, there's even less to buy since you could mostly be looking at new kits.

Upgrading to 7th edition means paying £50 for the rules and £60 for the already obsolete 6th edition codexes for Tau and Tyranids.

My armies will still be uncompetitive in the sense of being at an automatic disadvantage in casual play against any player who owns the new types of units -- flyers, LoW, and so on -- that were added into the game in 6th edition. Realistically I would be looking at another £150-ish to buy a Riptide, a Flyrant and a couple of AA units, so the total bill for the new edition is going to be £250 to £300. That is something like $500 AUD. I don't actually like Flyers and so on.

If you are saying this is not the same as buying a complete new army, obviously you are right, but it is still a lot of money, especially when I look at what I could buy for say X-Wing or many other games. I could for instance buy Twilight Imperium III, and Rune Wars, and Super Dungeon Explore and have change for some expansion sets.

If I don't want to spend all that money, my 40K armies are still perfectly useable with the 4th and 5th edition rules, which I still own as do many people, or I can make an agreement with a potential opponent to play using 6th edition, which I own, but not to use any of the 6th and 7th edition units.