Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

@ jah-joshua:
With those other ranges you're talking about a completely different thing, miniatures ranges being released with larger miniatures. That's not the same thing as miniatures for the dame thing getting bigger in a game causing the old figures to be dwarfed by the new ones and look out of place. This is no crusade, just a single comment that two posters thought they needed to dispute.

Just this week I've just started painting 28mm miniatures again after a long period paining 15mm miniatures. So I can appreciate the benefits of a larger canvas. This has nothing to do with old miniatures looking out of place next to new ones because the new miniatures for the same thing are bigger.

 Vermis wrote:
I dunno. I never said anything about five month.

So sorry, did not mean to attach that to you directly; just a little passive-aggressively

--Below is pointed at no-one.--

In the future, there may be some kick-arse Tzeentch(or Nurgle) 'marines', some people who are not currently impressed, may or may not like, that improves the consumption of product.....maybe.

Nb43rdparty 'true-scale' bolt gun.

It is hard for me to outright believe the good models just stop coming. I personally think 'End Times' was a pretty good send-off. Did the general consensus ever like the fantasy rules, for any edition?

 Talys wrote:
Oh yes -- a whole new brush range that's way bigger than the old one, new paints, a line of figurine cases, and something like a codex a month, and the Khorne fellas that I can't remember the name of.

Soooo... if GW Death Spiraled anymore, they'd need new releases twice a week O.o

A lot of people see this as furiously bailing out the boat as its sinking: yes, they're working hard (and producing some amazing kits!) but ultimately they're not getting anywhere.

You would hope that with the amazing rate of releases, they would be improving. Last year saw a significant increase in release schedule over the previous, but ended up with falling sales. I think we might see the same again this year despite (or perhaps because of) the rapid release rate.
Compare this to Warmachine, Infinity, XWing where the release schedule is much more leisurely yet sales appear to be growing steadily.

So yes, I think if we DO see GW releasing every Wednesday AND Saturday and they still don't increase their sales numbers, that definitely would be signs of imminent collapse.

 Mysterious Pants wrote:
How did this thread get to 16 pages without someone correcting the painful spelling error in the title?

Anyway, I've stopped hoping that GW goes under because it's kind of spiteful. You know, if you like the stuff GW is producing good for you, enjoy yourself. I just think it's garbage.

I do hope that other games keep rising in popularity, and maybe that one day a different company will have the number one spot.

you think GW miniatures are garbage? what juju powder are you smoking? if any thing GW are the leaders of making miniatures... their games are average sure... but come on, this hobby is all about the miniatures.... I am just surprised more people are not using GW miniatures in their others games (or do those game creators stop them from doing so)


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Trasvi wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Oh yes -- a whole new brush range that's way bigger than the old one, new paints, a line of figurine cases, and something like a codex a month, and the Khorne fellas that I can't remember the name of.

Soooo... if GW Death Spiraled anymore, they'd need new releases twice a week O.o

A lot of people see this as furiously bailing out the boat as its sinking: yes, they're working hard (and producing some amazing kits!) but ultimately they're not getting anywhere.

You would hope that with the amazing rate of releases, they would be improving. Last year saw a significant increase in release schedule over the previous, but ended up with falling sales. I think we might see the same again this year despite (or perhaps because of) the rapid release rate.
Compare this to Warmachine, Infinity, XWing where the release schedule is much more leisurely yet sales appear to be growing steadily.

So yes, I think if we DO see GW releasing every Wednesday AND Saturday and they still don't increase their sales numbers, that definitely would be signs of imminent collapse.

GW is so successful and large that it (in a business sense) has multiple ways to survive, even if they close down all their stores and stop producing fantasy and other stuff like their "hobby kits" (which are expensive, buy any hardware store quality ones) and focus only on 40k (which technically would make PERFECT business sense) they would still be the top dogs in miniature world... GW is not going to die in any way, it has layers upon layers of safety nets to keep alive, at worst if AoS fails GW will leave fantasy and close down the majority of their stores (apart from the popular ones) :/ it will still be alive and kicking though

Trasvi wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Oh yes -- a whole new brush range that's way bigger than the old one, new paints, a line of figurine cases, and something like a codex a month, and the Khorne fellas that I can't remember the name of.

Soooo... if GW Death Spiraled anymore, they'd need new releases twice a week O.o

A lot of people see this as furiously bailing out the boat as its sinking: yes, they're working hard (and producing some amazing kits!) but ultimately they're not getting anywhere.

You would hope that with the amazing rate of releases, they would be improving. Last year saw a significant increase in release schedule over the previous, but ended up with falling sales. I think we might see the same again this year despite (or perhaps because of) the rapid release rate.
Compare this to Warmachine, Infinity, XWing where the release schedule is much more leisurely yet sales appear to be growing steadily.

So yes, I think if we DO see GW releasing every Wednesday AND Saturday and they still don't increase their sales numbers, that definitely would be signs of imminent collapse.

>.<

Those models are very expensive to tool up and produce in plastic. I don't think any other company could even afford to do so. Of course, since we don't have their financials, it's impossible to obsess over their performance.

An alternate view: 40k is selling better than ever, Fantasy was flagging, and LoTR is fading into nothingness. In the midst of this, GW is still highly profitable, enough so to produce TONS of new sculpts (and books and art, etc.) and make them a reality.

If all those releases were just books, yes, I'd agree that it was all just a desperate last gasp. But they aren't. They are a brick ton of real, actual models -- that people who enjoy the aesthetic think are the some of GW's best work ever, with even more models coming down the pipeline. In half a year, they're producing more new stuff than the next 3 largest companies put together without breaking a sweat.

 Talys wrote:

An alternate view: 40k is selling better than ever,

It's not though, just selling better than anything else GW produce.

There is a BIG difference.

 Talys wrote:

Trasvi wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Oh yes -- a whole new brush range that's way bigger than the old one, new paints, a line of figurine cases, and something like a codex a month, and the Khorne fellas that I can't remember the name of.

Soooo... if GW Death Spiraled anymore, they'd need new releases twice a week O.o

A lot of people see this as furiously bailing out the boat as its sinking: yes, they're working hard (and producing some amazing kits!) but ultimately they're not getting anywhere.

You would hope that with the amazing rate of releases, they would be improving. Last year saw a significant increase in release schedule over the previous, but ended up with falling sales. I think we might see the same again this year despite (or perhaps because of) the rapid release rate.
Compare this to Warmachine, Infinity, XWing where the release schedule is much more leisurely yet sales appear to be growing steadily.

So yes, I think if we DO see GW releasing every Wednesday AND Saturday and they still don't increase their sales numbers, that definitely would be signs of imminent collapse.

>.<

Those models are very expensive to tool up and produce in plastic. I don't think any other company could even afford to do so. Of course, since we don't have their financials, it's impossible to obsess over their performance.

An alternate view: 40k is selling better than ever, Fantasy was flagging, and LoTR is fading into nothingness. In the midst of this, GW is still highly profitable, enough so to produce TONS of new sculpts (and books and art, etc.) and make them a reality.

If all those releases were just books, yes, I'd agree that it was all just a desperate last gasp. But they aren't. They are a brick ton of real, actual models -- that people who enjoy the aesthetic think are the some of GW's best work ever, with even more models coming down the pipeline. In half a year, they're producing more new stuff than the next 3 largest companies put together without breaking a sweat.

From all appearances here it looks like there is a fair number of people in my area looking forward to the new look of Warhammer and are pre ordering as well as getting back into fantasy. Mantic is also benefitting from the change because of those that don't like the new direction.
A rising tide raises all boats, at least in this area. I think I'll enjoy playing both game systems.

 Talys wrote:
An alternate view: 40k is selling better than ever, Fantasy was flagging, and LoTR is fading into nothingness. In the midst of this, GW is still highly profitable, enough so to produce TONS of new sculpts (and books and art, etc.) and make them a reality.

They produce them because they're still hiring the people to make them. No point hiring a design team and manufacturing personnel if they're sitting on their asses doing nothing. Even the very rapid releases shows a short term mindset. Much of it is limited time availability, and restricted to online sales directly from them. This shows that while they're tooling molds (not very much a big deal for them, they have staff and equipment on their payroll to do it themselves, it's only expensive when you're outsourcing it), they don't have the staff or production resources to actually make enough, so they're strangling sales avenues to maximise direct sales, and giving quick 'limited time' tag to those releases.

GW are cutting costs everywhere they can to bring profits up. Yes, this is normal behaviour. However, you cut costs and raise prices to increase your profit. As it is, it's been flat for many years. Which says that price rises and lower operation costs are merely making the company keep up with declining sales.

Which isn't too bad, until you run out of costs to cut and market will no longer bare your price increases. Falling sales (again, indicated by flat revenue, cut costs and raised prices - the only place for it to happen is lower sales) would indicate that the market is no longer baring the costs - people are either not buying altogether, or, as research suggests with other miniature companies expanding rapidly, buying elsewhere. The fact that stores are pretty regularly closing and opening in less than favourable areas, staffed by single people and the design team is a shadow of what it was, they're really running out of costs to cut. They can't exactly cut stores altogether, since they're been very antagonistic to independent retailers over recent years.

It takes a very special type of person to look at GW's aggressive pricing, cost cutting and flat revenue to say 'yep, everything looks rosy'.

 -Loki- wrote:

It takes a very special type of person to look at GW's aggressive pricing, cost cutting and flat revenue to say 'yep, everything looks rosy'.

In that case, half the people here on Dakka and all the other 40k forums are Special, since so many of them INSIST that there is nothing wrong with GW right now and those who are complaining are just a "vocal minority."

 Talys wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Pacific wrote:

They didn't have to keep on churning out new editions... I think a lot of people (and I know a bunch of WFB playing guys who were really into the game, playing lots of tournaments each year etc.) might have hoped they had just kept the previous 8th edition on sale, alongside, AoS.

I don't think anyone begrudges GW releasing this new game. It's more the fact that they've set up something new, while completely disregarding the loyal fanbase of WHFB who have played the game for 20-30 years. TOs now have a difficult choice of trying to keep appeal to those players, or do they go with the new AoS? What will probably happen is a split down the middle, with a detriment to those tournaments that lose players to other games as well as AoS, and those that just stop bothering with it.

And this new game isn't WHFB in terms of the character of play, mechanics, balance, tactics employed to play. The chances are it's not going to scratch that itch for a lot of players, and the fact that forums are already abuzz with attempts to try and introduce some semblance of a balance mechanic before the game has even be released; you don't know whether to laugh or cry about it.

The whole thing is actually like a nightmare.. I still can't believe it has happened, or that GW would do something so crass.

I suppose, they could have. I personally think they should have forked the product into a skirmisher and a big-model-count game. But I'm not sure keeping 8e out there makes any sense; I mean, it obviously isn't attracting new players, so who's going to buy all those books that take up space on the shelf?

The game could have continued in a similar manner to how Specialist Games functioned for many years. Reduce to a core product line, have a service so you print the rules as people buy them once existing stock levels have been depleted. GW have this production capacity in place as they use it with some of the older BL books.

You wouldn't have even had to have it on sale in GW stores and independents, just direct only. In terms of effort, it would have taken very, very little. In fact, I heard that when the 'Specialist Games' lines (although they weren't called that at the time) were taken off sale they were going to be dropped entirely. No rules available, no miniatures. But, Jervis Johnson agreed to take them under his wing (in addition to his other duties in the company), which is why they lived on for as long as they did.

It would have taken very little effort and would have been kind to the tens of thousands of veteran fans who play and love the game. AoS isn't warhammer, but instead I think (by the very fact that GW haven't continued to sell 8th edition) that they are trying to shoe-horn all of those veterans into the new game.

I hope I don't need to point out to you why this might have been a 'good' thing to do..

bitethythumb wrote:
their games are average sure... but come on, this hobby is all about the miniatures...

For some people, crazy as it sounds, the wargaming hobby is about the games.

I am just surprised more people are not using GW miniatures in their others games (or do those game creators stop them from doing so)

They don't, for the most part. GW themselves do that, with their goofy prices and the 'official' attitude they seem to have infected people with.

GW is so successful and large that it (in a business sense) has multiple ways to survive, even if they close down all their stores and stop producing fantasy and other stuff like their "hobby kits" (which are expensive, buy any hardware store quality ones) and focus only on 40k (which technically would make PERFECT business sense) they would still be the top dogs in miniature world... GW is not going to die in any way, it has layers upon layers of safety nets to keep alive, at worst if AoS fails GW will leave fantasy and close down the majority of their stores (apart from the popular ones) :/ it will still be alive and kicking though

Holy moley.

How long can GW be the top dog if even their 40K revenues continue to drop? What are their layers and layers of safety nets? (From what I hear, they've already fallen through quite a few of those) How large and successful (in a business sense) do you think GW is, compared to bigger, more successful businesses that have since croaked? I'm pretty sure some people thought TSR would be around forever, too, just because it's demise was unthinkable to the fans. But wishful thinking doesn't trump astoundingly bad business decisions and cold, hard, financial report facts.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Relapse wrote:

A rising tide raises all boats, at least in this area.

It depends if the tide rises over the sharp, pointy rocks that the good ship GW has been steadily chugging towards, lately. In either eventuality, I don't know if your area will be enough to save them.

With GW, I think it is a case of death by a thousand cuts. At the moment, there is no one GW-sized competitor coming up on the inside track stealing GW market share. What there is instead are a myriad of smaller companies and rulesets all nibbling away at the GW hegemony. I think gamers now have an unprecedented choice in what games to play; even going back as short a timespan as 5 years you can see the difference - so many more games and companies have sprung up and they are all claiming their piece of the pie. This whole AoS business is a reaction to that; GW are in a bit of flap, especially regarding tanking Fantasy sales and AoS is the attempt to reboot it and reignite interest. I don't think it will work in the long term, for many of the reasons already given. I do find it interesting that GW are effectively willing to adopt a 'scorched earth' policy regarding their, what?, 30 years of Fantasy lore in order to follow this line of thinking. I find it a shame really and that is coming from someone who doesn't play fantasy and has no real attachment to the fluff so God knows how those who are primarily Fantasy players are taking it.

It will be interesting to see if GW take this to the ultimate conclusion and apply it to 40K too. At the moment, I think 40K sales are just about keeping on track, thanks in part to a frenetic release schedule, but I don't think that can be sustained for long and nor are there too many costs that can be cut that haven't already been cut. If 40K sales start to slide, how long will Kirby's finger be hovering over the AoS 40k button?

 filbert wrote:
W even going back as short a timespan as 5 years you can see the difference - so many more games and companies have sprung up and they are all claiming their piece of the pie.

Over a 5 years time span, GW improved their piece of the pie.

2009 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 113.9m
2009 Operating profit - GBP 9m
2009 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 7.5m


2014 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 125.9m
2014 Operating profit - GBP 12.3m
2014 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 12.4m

Wonderwolf wrote:

 filbert wrote:
W even going back as short a timespan as 5 years you can see the difference - so many more games and companies have sprung up and they are all claiming their piece of the pie.

Over a 5 years time span, GW improved their piece of the pie.

2009 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 113.9m
2009 Operating profit - GBP 9m
2009 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 7.5m


2014 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 125.9m
2014 Operating profit - GBP 12.3m
2014 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 12.4m

And yet....

 Osbad wrote:

Mymearan wrote:

It would be interesting to see GWs revenue before LotR. If it was more along the lines of their current revenue or even less, then is it not possible that what happened is this: The success of LotR caused GW to grow faster than they could reasonably sustain in the long run. With LotR and Fantasy sales falling rapidly, and the competition growing fiercer every day, they are now forced to take desperate cost-cutting measures to avoid shrinking back to a more sustainable size (which is probably what they actually should do). At the same time they cut LotR and make a last ditch effort to save Fantasy.

This is a graph I've kept running for the last few years, well decade. You can see how GW's revenues and profits have performed since 1997, and the impact that the stock exchange listing and the LOTR effect have both had in that time.

The dark lines show real value (i.e. discounted for RPI), and the lighter lines show cash values.

Just to confirm that the LOTR bubble effect seems to have ended in 2006, and since then LOTR sales have been pretty negligable overall. As was said earlier in the thread, the real sales, which are a proxy for their voume sales show a very worrying trend, i.e. that the amount of product sold now is no larger than it was at the turn of the century, and given GWs price rises proably outstrip UK RPI, they are probably actually somewhat less. 15 years of no net volume growth says all it needs to say about Kirby and his teams abiities to grow a business.

Lies, damned lies and statistics or something...

Fact is, GW saw a slight rise due to some pretty heavy handed cost cutting (one man stores and all that) that can't really be repeated (unless they go to a revolutionary 0 man store model!) but as Osbad points out, they have fallen right back again. It remains to be seen if the trend continues but I think my point still stands; despite GWs attempts to prop up falling sales volumes with cost cutting and price rises, the miniature wargaming market as a whole is growing and more companies than ever are taking a share of that pie.

Wonderwolf wrote:

 filbert wrote:
W even going back as short a timespan as 5 years you can see the difference - so many more games and companies have sprung up and they are all claiming their piece of the pie.

Over a 5 years time span, GW improved their piece of the pie.

2009 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 113.9m
2009 Operating profit - GBP 9m
2009 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 7.5m


2014 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 125.9m
2014 Operating profit - GBP 12.3m
2014 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 12.4m

I don't know where you got those numbers, but according to GW's financial statements (http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2009-10_FinalFullYearReport.pdf) the numbers for 2009 were:

Revenue at constant currency: GBP 125.7m
2009 Operating profit - GBP 5.5m
2009 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 9.0m

So while they have increased their profits (thanks to very aggressive cost cutting measures that happened in 2010, if you analyse the profit evolution since 2010, their profits are down as well), their revenue has actually declined.

PhantomViper wrote:


I don't know where you got those numbers, but according to GW's financial statements (http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2009-10_FinalFullYearReport.pdf) the numbers for 2009 were:

If you want numbers for 2009, it helps to take the 2009 statement, not the 2010 version

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/GW_Report09_Full.pdf

Wonderwolf wrote:

PhantomViper wrote:


I don't know where you got those numbers, but according to GW's financial statements (http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2009-10_FinalFullYearReport.pdf) the numbers for 2009 were:

If you want numbers for 2009, it helps to take the 2009 statement, not the 2010 version

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/GW_Report09_Full.pdf

The 2010 version has the correct numbers for 2009 inside.

The numbers that you posted are the Revenue numbers if the GBP was at 2008 values (read the * at the bottom of the page).

Which also means that the correct values for their revenue in 2014 is 123.5m and not 125.9m, showing an even bigger decline in revenue.

Revenue at constant currency is useful if you wan't to compare consecutive years but for anything other than that its a meaningless number.

Wonderwolf wrote:

 filbert wrote:
W even going back as short a timespan as 5 years you can see the difference - so many more games and companies have sprung up and they are all claiming their piece of the pie.

Over a 5 years time span, GW improved their piece of the pie.

2009 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 113.9m
2009 Operating profit - GBP 9m
2009 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 7.5m


2014 Revenue at constant currency - GBP 125.9m
2014 Operating profit - GBP 12.3m
2014 Pre-Tax profit - GBP 12.4m

If you assume the pie did not grow, but if it grew only 15% over five years, GW's share fell.

Of course we have little than guesses as to the amount of growth or decline.

 Kilkrazy wrote:


If you assume the pie did not grow, but if it grew only 15% over five years, GW's share fell.

It did only if you count things like boardgames and CCG like MtG. Strictly wargames did not grow.

Wonderwolf wrote:
Strictly wargames did not grow.

Source? Proof? Numbers?

Genuinely curious, best I've seen is when all those things are lumped together.

Wonderwolf wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:


If you assume the pie did not grow, but if it grew only 15% over five years, GW's share fell.

It did only if you count things like boardgames and CCG like MtG. Strictly wargames did not grow.

There was an article in ICV2 a while ago that stated that non-collectable wargame sales are growing.

We've had individual company reports stating growth from the likes of Privateer Press (10-15%) Corvus Belli (40%), Hawk Wargames, Wyrd Warlord Bolt Action (which is apparently selling extremely well) I don't need to mention FFG and X-Wing/Armada in there.. Slitherine, who make FOG, are reporting big growth in that sector.

Attendance figures for the UK's largest wargaming and miniature show, Salute, were bigger this year and they had to expand the hall size.

While the ICV2 article is muddy in terms of where it segregates tabletop wargaming/CCGs/board games, I think there are more than enough evidence there of an overall growing market, rather than a stagnant or shrinking one. Certainly, anecdotally, I will say the shelves of the better FLGS are a hell of a lot more varied and colourful than I remember them being 4-5 years ago even!

Wonderwolf wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:


If you assume the pie did not grow, but if it grew only 15% over five years, GW's share fell.

It did only if you count things like boardgames and CCG like MtG. Strictly wargames did not grow.

We just don't have accurate figures.

Empirical evidence is that wargames have grown significantly. One only needs to consider the large number of new rulebooks published during the period,. including Field of Glory, Bolt Action, Kings of War, De Bellis Magistorum Milites, 7TV, Hail Caesar, Star Wars X Wing, and others . Also the many new 28mm plastic soldier boxes coming from Perry Bros, Warlord, and SF/Fantasy manufacturers like Mantic. Plenty of 28mm metal and resin too, not to mention 10mm (Dropzone) and space and naval games.

I could go on, but I feel my point is amply made. It is very hard to suppose that all this new stuff would come on to the market if people were not starting to buy it in increasing amounts.

Anyway, why exclude boardgames? Super Dungeon Explore, Zombicide and Gears Of War are the kind of cross-over 3D Boardgame that AOS is rather comparable to.

 Talys wrote:
A lot of 40k'ers will give Sigmar a go because it's a low model count game with an aesthetic that they're probably going to like.

I beg to differ. A lot of 40k'ers will give Age of Sigmar a pass precisely because there is no points values or army building structure. Whether the new models are awesome or not is irrelevant. Some 40k'ers may buy AoS for conversion fodder. While your meta is full of superfans that buy every release, my meta is full of hobby enthusiasts who have entirely moved on. Any interest in AoS has been strongly dampened by the perceived unplayability of the rules.

IMHO, while I think that GW's plastic miniature technology is generally beyond reproach, the competition is rapidly catching up. In a few years, Malifaux may be ready to challenge them for the crown. At present, they have some model assembly issues to sort out in engineering, but in terms of detail, they are very close, if not better (in some cases) than GW.

Maybe it is b/c I lack interest in the war gaming side, but when I look around, the other producers are just as expensive, with less to offer. I'm not seeing the great GW thereafter, where happiness reigns for all, with great rules.

I have no delusion, GW needs to do better, but the alternatives are not as great as they are made out to be, IMO. I'd hate to think FFG was the best/top rules/game company. I like Descent, but it ain't no D&D. Arkham Horror better than Ravenloft, LOL no. Nice dinky little cheap games, yes. I like Privateer Press, only got so much time and money, never hit me as something worthwhile.

I don't care for sci-fi skirmish, so I'm not qualified to comment on alot of other games/companies; Except none have caught my eye, or the eye of anyone around me.

I collect D&D and Pathfinder pre-painted minis, and the current cost per piece is pretty high these days. Each piece costs a little more than 2 dollars, in random sealed product. Look around ,the cost of gaming is crazy period.

 keezus wrote:

 Talys wrote:
A lot of 40k'ers will give Sigmar a go because it's a low model count game with an aesthetic that they're probably going to like.

I beg to differ. A lot of 40k'ers will give Age of Sigmar a pass precisely because there is no points values or army building structure. Whether the new models are awesome or not is irrelevant. Some 40k'ers may buy AoS for conversion fodder. While your meta is full of superfans that buy every release, my meta is full of hobby enthusiasts who have entirely moved on. Any interest in AoS has been strongly dampened by the perceived unplayability of the rules..

A lot of 40Kers will give AoS a go because it has Space Meh-rines now and they love space marines enough to take any ol rubbish GW salty warms down their throats.

 Torga_DW wrote:

 Talys wrote:

 Torga_DW wrote:
You're assuming there that sales can only go up for fantasy. That is incorrect, they can still go down at this point. Enough to kill the particular franchise completely. What happens remains to be seen.

In the mid/long term, I agree; it could be a flame that burns out. In the immediate future, I think Sigmar will do fine.

My prediction is it will struggle to do fine in the immediate future, but we'll know either way when the financials are released for this half. Kinda funny to me that the last financials haven't been released yet and already i feel like they're obsolete.

 Talys wrote:
The few people that I know who play 8e Fantasy rarely (almost never?) buy new models for their armies -- certainly not like the 40k folks I know.

Thats a correlation/causation issue though. Are they not buying because they are the sort of people that generally don't buy new things? Or are they not buying because they're dissatisfied with the way things were going? Would be interesting to know.

In my local group it was the rules that drove the bulk of us to Kings of War.

One of the players went and bought several sets of Islands of Blood and threw the rules away - he plays elves in Kings of War, and is actually likely to buy a few more IoB sets if he can get them cheap on eBay.

Pretty much everyone else is using their old Warhammer armies - though there is a new Mantic Orc army being built, and I have a crap ton of Mantic Dwarfs. (As well as a big pile of Mantic Orcs, which I am mostly using for RPGs at the moment, though my good lady has played them as an army.)

So, for a lot of us, yes, it is because we do not like the way the direction that Fantasy was going - and AoS only confirmed a decision made with eighth edition.

As for not liking change... we all piled onto a new game system, and I was one of the few that had tried it before we made the jump. (Those few of us were fairly persuasive.).

A third category uses a big old pile of minis from every which where - in part because Mantic is willing to allow this, even in official tourneys. (One of these centuries there may even be a local tourney....)

This includes newcomers that had never played Warhammer. (Though most of them had played Mordheim.)

I am afraid that eighth edition made leaving Warhammer all too easy.

The Auld Grump

I think what'll keep WH-AOS from becoming more popular, other than the balance issues, will be the costs of future releases.

The box set is a good/reasonable price, but with upcoming items like the $40 dice shaker, and GW's singular focus on profit above all else, I imagine the cost of all future items is going to be quite extraordinary. Might just be a hunch, but I'm guessing that part of this dial-down in army size will result in units being more expensive than previous.

I stopped buying WHFB because of the direction of the game. The crucial moment for me was when I looked at my existing collection and realized that I would've had to spend hundreds of dollars more to field a full-sized, effective army. (Granted, I was building skaven, but still.) The costs were too much.

Age of Sigmarines could've gotten me back in. While I sold most of my armies, I kept the fun stuff, like my doomwheel, and my character models. If I could've played a decent skirmish game with my collection, plus one or two new boxes, I'd have tried it, especially with free rules.

Instead of a decent skirmish game, we got Age of Sigmarines.

Still waiting for Wonderwolf to present the facts about the wargaming hobby not growing.

 Blacksails wrote:
Still waiting for Wonderwolf to present the facts about the wargaming hobby not growing.

As are we all.