Stranger83 wrote:

Out of interest what are you basing this assumption on?

One senior EU official BuzzFeed News spoke to in Brussels described an independent Scotland’s chances of joining the EU as a “slam dunk”.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

Stranger83 wrote:

Out of interest what are you basing this assumption on?

The constant stream of comments such as

One senior EU official BuzzFeed News spoke to in Brussels described an independent Scotland’s chances of joining the EU as a “slam dunk”.

link

The EU is clearly keen to accept Scotland and politicians from member states, even Spain, have also been making positive comments. In terms of realpolitik though, can you really see the EU refusing Scotland when it already complies with nearly all EU regulations and because it will really piss off the English?

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

Stranger83 wrote:


Incidently, for every positive comment from a 'senior official' I could add something from one of the presidents, for example this by Mr Juncker who says that there should be no new expansion until after 2020. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/

 Whirlwind wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

Actually it's a better move than you are giving her credit for.

Deny the vote and you only strengthen SNPs argument that Westminster are just stuck in a colonial past.
Grant it and don't actively engage the Scottish parliament (as May is doing and just ploughing on regardless of consequences) then you only strengthen SNPs argument
Grant it and engage with SNP then May will have to concede a lot (such as free movement and trade) else the above occurs.
Corbyn getting involved in the indyref2 is likely to hand SNP the victory (they would probably be better to lock him in cage somewhere during campaigning)

Already we can see the right wing Tory attitude is to do the best for them and that they don't care about anyone else (and that's form England) so playing on this Tory approach to the world could heavily swing the odds in the favour of Scotland leaving the UK (this might be compounded if it hits the Scottish economy harder than elsewhere). There is a reason that Empress May is trying to prevent a new referendum - it's because she fears it will mean Scotland will leave, she will then be forever known as the PM that was in charge during the breakup of the UK.

As for whether Scotland could quickly rejoin the EU I'm not sure it is such a problem people are making out. Scotland already has to comply with EU regulations and the EU are already mooting that UK citizens will still be able to apply to be an EU resident (I'm all for handing in my UK passport for an EU one) so it's not a far stretch to think they might offer the same thing to the whole of Scotland (and there are advantages for the EU for this, such as in fishing rights as the UKs territorial waters would be severely reduced if Scotland leaves the UK. It would be interesting if other member states decided to join the Scotland in this endeavour. At that point it would be more little England leaving the UK group...


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Stranger83 wrote:


Incidently, for every positive comment from a 'senior official' I could add something from one of the presidents, for example this by Mr Juncker who says that there should be no new expansion until after 2020. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/european-commission-independent-scotland-would-have-join-queue/

But that's why SNP want a referendum soon, they won't have to leave (and rejoin) then at all. It would just be England/Wales/NI(?) leaving.

Boris Johnson has just told the House of Commons he will support proposals to build a new Royal Yacht Britannia

 reds8n wrote:


Maybe Scotland leaving will be the saving grace.

have to keep a clear/free border there ...and that'll be the backdoor into/out of the EU zone maybe ?


...never happen.


Least the Brexiteers are on the case :

https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/841369848634580996

Boris Johnson has just told the House of Commons he will support proposals to build a new Royal Yacht Britannia

...TBF maybe we'll borrow an idea from our new friend overseas and get Scotland to pay for it -- the walls already done after all.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Spain has repeatedly said that if Scotland LEGALLY leaves the UK as per the constitutional framework of the UK, then Spain will not veto Scottish membership of the EU.

Only the other day, the Spanish said that Scotland and Catalonia are vastly different...

Sweden has been promising to sign up to the Euro since day 1 of the Euro but has not done so...

I post these points, because if I had a quid for every time I've had to repeat them, I'd be a millionaire, and yet, ignorant journalists and political commentators keep parroting contrary information...

I suspect it's deliberate...

So much so, I really ought to get those two points tattooed to my forehead...

and another thing: SCOTLAND HAS NO DEFICET!

It's is not an independent country. it is part of the UK...

Sorry for the caps, but I'll be getting that point tattooed to my forehead as well.

The PM is considering setting the condition that the SNP must win an outright majority in Holyrood elections in 2021, says the Times

Stranger83 wrote:


'Scotland' has never been part of the EU, it is the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom is leaving the EU. If Scotland wants to be in the EU it'll need to join, weather this is before or after the UK leaves is immaterial.

This has been made abundantly clear to everyone, even the SNP accept this - why you think it'd be different I have no idea.

 reds8n wrote:

The PM is considering setting the condition that the SNP must win an outright majority in Holyrood elections in 2021, says the Times

... http://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx

are you going to tell her or....

 Whirlwind wrote:

Stranger83 wrote:


'Scotland' has never been part of the EU, it is the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom is leaving the EU. If Scotland wants to be in the EU it'll need to join, weather this is before or after the UK leaves is immaterial.

This has been made abundantly clear to everyone, even the SNP accept this - why you think it'd be different I have no idea.

The United Kingdom however is not a country; it is by its very meaning a conglomerate of individual countries. The UK joined the EU and by doing so accepted all the individual nation states. If the UK decides to divide then there appears to be no reason why Scotland couldn't remain in the EU as it's own separate nation state as it is currently. It's only colonialism that prevents people seeing that Scotland as its own country.

However maybe we should start calling ourselves DUK (as in Disunited Kingdom). Perhaps then we'll have better terminology with the fiasco that is Brexit. We will be a "DUK out of water" and relative to new investment a "dead DUK"

The NATO secretary general has told Sky News that Scotland would no longer be a member of NATO if it voted to leave the UK.

Jens Stoltenberg was commenting hours after Scottish First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to hold a second independence referendum.

He said: "If it happens (Scotland becomes independent), then UK will continue as a member of NATO but a new, independent state has to apply for membership and then it is up to 28 allies to decide whether we will have a new member.

"By leaving the UK, it will also leave NATO.

"But of course it's absolutely possible to apply for membership and then the allies would then decide whether a new independent entity or state will become a part of NATO."

Although an independent Scotland would probably satisfy most NATO criteria, the accession process typically takes many years and it would have to be ratified by the other 28 members.

The SNP was previously opposed to NATO but reversed that position in 2014. Ms Sturgeon said she would seek to join NATO were Scotland to achieve independence.

One issue would almost certainly be the SNP's opposition to the UK's nuclear deterrent which is currently based at Faslane on the west coast of Scotland.

It is unlikely the UK would allow its nuclear submarines to remain in an independent Scotland, which involves an expensive relocation process.

And NATO might look dimly on Scotland's opposition to nuclear weapons considering NATO is fundamentally a nuclear alliance.

Scotland would be entitled to its fair share of the UK's current armed forces and would need to build its own defence capabilities.

Chancellor Philip Hammond, who was defence secretary during the 2014 referendum, made fun of that suggesting that Scotland would get five Chinook helicopters, 10 fighter jets, one sixth of an aircraft carrier and less than one Red Arrow.

Independence could also affect the Scottish economy.

The country is a hub for defence manufacturers with major companies such as BAE Systems and Thales having bases north of the border.

Most Royal Naval warships are built on the Clyde outside Glasgow, but the Westminster government would transfer those facilities south, probably to Portsmouth, for national security reasons.

The UK's two new aircraft carriers are also being built in Scotland - the largest ships the UK has ever built.

Stranger83 wrote:


The point is, IF Scotland does go independent (and I have said before I believe that is a choice for them to make) they WILL need to apply to rejoin the EU, and the rest of the EU might not want to have another drain on it's resources after just losing one of the major contributing countries in the UK (I'm assuming that Scotland would not be a net contributor to the EU, but I suppose the deal may go quicker for them if they agree they will be)

jouso wrote:

I'm sure the rest of EU members would rather have a lesser economic power in than a major one that's disruptive to the group.

 alanmckenzie wrote:

jouso wrote:

I'm sure the rest of EU members would rather have a lesser economic power in than a major one that's disruptive to the group.

Perhaps not when that lesser economic power is running a deficit of roughly 10% of their GDP.... worse than any other EU member.

 alanmckenzie wrote:

Perhaps not when that lesser economic power is running a deficit of roughly 10% of their GDP.... worse than any other EU member.

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:


I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

On this basis then as the Scottish voted in the SNP as their government you should be supportive that they want another referendum and should cede to the request because being "your countrypeople" should mean you are more empathetic to their wishes because you care more about them. If you don't support that view then I'm not sure Germans would want you to consider them your countrypeople.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 alanmckenzie wrote:

Perhaps not when that lesser economic power is running a deficit of roughly 10% of their GDP.... worse than any other EU member.

Do we?

Spoiler:

Simply this: if there is to be meaningful debate on this issue then the SNP have a lot of work to do to produce best possible data. The last thing they should do is trust that from London.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:


Also you have to hand it to the Daily Mail, no one does unbiased reporting quite like them:

The SNP want us to take a gamble. It is right that we know what it would mean for our currency, our borders, the British rebate, structural funds, CAP which is worth £600 million, the CFP and all the other aspects of Scottish life that are influenced by our membership of the EU.

All of these unanswered questions point towards the biggest question of all. Why on earth would you do this?

Scotland is already a member of the EU through the UK. Why would we throw away all that we have gained through that membership – the opt outs on the Euro, Border Controls and the UK’s rebate just to satisfy the desires of a minority of people who would say and do anything to break up the UK?"

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:


I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

On this basis then as the Scottish voted in the SNP as their government you should be supportive that they want another referendum and should cede to the request because being "your countrypeople" should mean you are more empathetic to their wishes because you care more about them. If you don't support that view then I'm not sure Germans would want you to consider them your countrypeople.

I do support that view. I've made clear several times in this thread that I don't want Scotland to leave but will respect their wishes if they vote to Leave.

I however disagree with the timing. There is no justification for holding Indyref2 right in the middle of the Brexit process. Scotland is leaving the EU regardless, even if only temporarily, so a snap independence referendum won't prevent it.

 alanmckenzie wrote:
[
It's the Scottish Government's own data.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 alanmckenzie wrote:
[
It's the Scottish Government's own data.

You mean the GERs data that is based on assumptions and guesswork?

 alanmckenzie wrote:

Which the Scottish Government described as " the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances"? Yes.