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 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Not in the least surprised about Johnson.

In other news, Barnier has done a De Gaulle on us with Non Non Non

and Mogg is predicting a no deal Brexit. He welcomes WTO terms.

Will be an interesting Autumn...

Well yeah. Looks like General de Gaulle was right all along about Britain.

https://www.ft.com/content/8f46b0d4-77b6-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475


Honda's UK plant

Proud managers describe 2m components “flowing like water” to the factory line every working day. Some orders from EU suppliers arrive within five to 24 hours; others, such as customised car seats, are summoned from local suppliers just 75 minutes before use. Not a minute is wasted. 

Honda now fears that the border checks that could be introduced as a result of Brexit will clog up the process. If Britain were to leave the customs union, Honda estimates European parts will take a minimum of two to three days to reach the plant, and possibly as long as nine days. Delivery times of finished cars may be just as unpredictable. 

To a car industry famed for its clockwork tempo, the potential delays pose an existential challenge. A warehouse capable of holding nine days’ worth of Honda stock would need to be roughly 300,000 sq m — one of the largest buildings on earth. Its floorspace would be equivalent to 42 football pitches, almost three times Amazon’s main US distribution centre. And its cost to operate would be as eye-catching as its proportions.

Yeah that'll happen won't it eh ?

https://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

A common assumption in the June 23 referendum debate is that after leaving the EU, the UK could “simply” operate as an ordinary WTO member. Eventually that’s true, but getting there would be far from simple.

Some experts believe that the adjustments would be little more than technical, and that any negotiations would be straightforward. They could be right. It would depend on whether the WTO’s membership is determined to accommodate the UK’s wishes.

But recent experience in the WTO suggests that is unlikely. A closer look at the details suggests some key issues could be politically contentious among the WTO’s members, currently 162 countries.

On top of that, recent negotiating experience suggests that willingness to accommodate each other’s interests quickly is a scarce commodity in the WTO and even a final agreement cannot be guaranteed.

If that is true, then post-Brexit, the UK can expect a long and rough ride.

Negotiating with diverse countries

To be clear, these negotiations would be about sorting out the UK’s legal status quo in the WTO. They would be separate from any free trade agreement such as with the US, EU or anyone else, although the complicated web of talks would feed into each other.

The UK is already a WTO member, but its membership terms are bundled with the EU’s. Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long.

this being the same govt. that has to resort to underhand tactics and out and out lying when trying to get through one of it's own bills.

... can't wait for the debate on what colour our ration books will get to be.

https://twitter.com/TripeUK/status/1020392260180070402

During WWII, tripe was never rationed and was eaten widely. After rationing ended in the 1950s, there were those who rashly predicted it meant the end for tripe.
But we hung on in there. We never gave up. So, if there's post-Brexit rationing, remember - we're here for you.

..we laugh now...

All joking aside, there’s wasteland out the back of my flat. Not entirely sure who owns it, as the other buildings in the street have it as part of their back Gardens.

Might be time to speak with the residents association about getting it turned into a shared veg plot. And one can keep pigs and chickens with little fuss.

Will the post-Brexi public service announcements just consist of the BBC being forces to air nothing but The Good Life.

Or even better, a reboot starring Rees-Mogg in drag as Margot.

An open letter to Remain Dakka members

For at least 3 years, you have defended the EU and its institutions, believing that the key to Britain's future prosperity lay within the EU. On numerous occasions, you cited the difficulty of leaving EU institutions and procedures, built up over 4 decades of integration. You argued that the complexities of these things meant that crashing out overnight, or without even the barebones of a plan, would led to disaster and calamity. Despite disagreeing with these viewpoints, I have always respected Remain supporters for standing up for what they believed in.

I voted for Brexit, and I would not hesitate to vote for it again, for it is my belief that ultimately the British people should have the final say on the make up of the institutions that govern and regulate their daily lives.

None the less, I've always seen myself as pragmatic, and on the point of the complexity of leaving an institution for which we were a member for 4 decades, you as Remain voters were correct to highlight this obstacle, for which I apologise for naysaying you on this point.


Having recently undertaking to study the relationship we have with the EU in areas such as marine regulation, medicines, food, engineering supply chains, aviation, pesticides, herbicides, industrial chemicals, radioactive waste etc etc


I concede to Remain dakka members that it will take a lot of time and effort to unpick ourselves from them . However, the very complexity of this relationship only serves to convince me that the encroachment of the EU into so many areas is reason enough to vote Brexit, that and other arguments I have made about sovereignty, which I will not go into here.

Brexit remains my endpoint, but I love this country, and I love the people of this great island, and because of that, I do not wish to see fellow Dakka members suffer from any economic fallout

For these reasons, and given that 40 years of EU membership won't be undone over night, I have shifted to the EEA/EFTA position.

It will allow us a safe and phased withdrawal. It won't damage our economy, it would IMO, be an acceptable compromise to the vast majority of voters, it adheres to the spirit of the referendum, and most importantly, it buys us time to learn how to govern again, and draft a proper plan for a clean break a few years down the line.

It also presents us with the option of championing a better deal for EEA/EFTA with the other members, which would obviously improve the situation for Britain.

Naturally, of course, the die-hards on both sdes would not entertain this idea for a minute, but in the interests of defending our democratic traditions, we have a duty to respect the referendum result, and EFTA/EEA ticks many of the boxes, and satisfies most of the criteria of the referendum.

I have written to my MP concering the EEA/EFTA option, and I would urge others to do the ame. Thank you for taking the time to read this.

Yours sincerly,

DINLT

I commend your ability to remain civil throughout some heated debates.

That said; I don't believe you're happy with the EEA; it's only a stepping stone to get to your brexit in a way you think won't be undone. Which is at least honest.

I've no doubt EEA will be a worse deal than current and will make a lot of people worse off over a long time.



I'm leaning towards WTO or staying in. WTO will give us the sharp reality shock we need to focus our efforts on what's best for the country and rejoicing. The main dilemma is how to prepare to survive those 6-12 months with rampaging prices, shortages and austerity like we've never seen in peace time.

I think that might be Moggs plan; to short the UK in order for mass buy outs before returning to the status quo massively more wealthy.

Herzlos wrote:
I commend your ability to remain civil throughout some heated debates.

That said; I don't believe you're happy with the EEA; it's only a stepping stone to get to your brexit in a way you think won't be undone. Which is at least honest.

I've no doubt EEA will be a worse deal than current and will make a lot of people worse off over a long time.



I'm leaning towards WTO or staying in. WTO will give us the sharp reality shock we need to focus our efforts on what's best for the country and rejoicing. The main dilemma is how to prepare to survive those 6-12 months with rampaging prices, shortages and austerity like we've never seen in peace time.

I think that might be Moggs plan; to short the UK in order for mass buy outs before returning to the status quo massively more wealthy.

Without a doubt, EFTA/EEA is a means to an end for me.

None the less, your last point about the WTO is exactly the danger I'm worried about. If we crash out hard, Remain can only win from that, and we get no Brexit and we're probably back in the EU.

The Tories are not up to the job - they are a wretched bunch who have ran this country into the ground.

A safe, controlled withdrawal, under the umbrella of EFTA/EEA, even if it takes a few more years, will always be preferable to going off the cliff, and handing the initiative back to Remain.

That is the conclusion I have come to. Half a Brexit is better than none.

Your letter was well appreciated DINLT.

I just look forward to the day when this is all over. I’ve lost friends and even family over this. Permanently too I imagine. In all circles too, including here. I won’t lie, sometimes I regret my vote. I sometimes regret how the idiots in charge are bungling it, and I regret the personal cost too. All that’s keeping me going is the thought that the next big financial crisis and the future EU army (it’s happening, regardless of what anyone claims) will vindicate my vote.

I believe there will be an EU army, which is sad, but I think it is needed.

For my part, I am sorry that you have suffered personally and lost friends over the vote. I think I would also probably fall out with people over it, but weirdly here with the distance and the fact that I see you guys posting on other stuff it is easier for me not to get personally mad at you.

I am annoyed because I think Brexit will impact my parents pretty heavily, and they haven't been having a quiet, stress free retirement for a variety of reasons. But there is still some hope that we might get a sensible resolution I suppose. And well do I know how it feels to regret a vote, having voted for the Green Party who when went into coalition with Fianna Fáil, eventually leading to their destruction after the financial crash.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Your letter was well appreciated DINLT.

I just look forward to the day when this is all over. I’ve lost friends and even family over this. Permanently too I imagine. In all circles too, including here. I won’t lie, sometimes I regret my vote. I sometimes regret how the idiots in charge are bungling it, and I regret the personal cost too. All that’s keeping me going is the thought that the next big financial crisis and the future EU army (it’s happening, regardless of what anyone claims) will vindicate my vote.

Thanks for the kind words.

The EFTA/EEA option is not perfect. It's not a magic wand that gives us 100% of what we want.

But it buys time to rebuild, and regroup, and most importantly, it solves a hell of a lot of problems and stops a disastrous crash that could let Remain sneak in through the back door.

We as a nation have forgotten have to govern, how to negotiate, how to stand on our own two feet, because those useless fethers in Westminster have outsourced governance to Brussels for decades.

But do we need the EEA for that, I'd we ever have an idea of what to so?

I mean, what's the end goal? Canada (there will be no +) or Japan? Why not just extend the transition and move to one of them?

I think you're idea of slowly sneaking out will fail; it's not a big leap from EEA to being back in, and wherever we go after EEA will still drive people back in.

I too echo the sentiments of just wanting this to be over, so we can get on with our lives and go back to complaining about politicians.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I also don't buy this idea that because the EU is hard to leave, is justification for leaving. It'd be hard for me to leave my wife and house but that doesn't make it a good idea.

We've benefited hugely from the closer integration, and integration is the way of the future. We're a long way past governance at the county, city or village state levels.

The end game? The end game is true free trade.

Research? Facts? I love 'em!

My limited research has only just scratched the surface but feth me, regulations are increasingly made at a global level: UN, UNECE, WTO, IPCC, WCO.

It's harmonization, it's common standards, regulations. It's detail baby.

Brussels? Feth Brussels, because Geneva and New York are the places to be. That's where the action is happening. Unknown, forgotten organisations make the rules, the EU adopts them and rebrands them as their own. Everything from car tyre standards and vehicle registration, to fishing and environmental rulings etc etc

Britain needs its seat at those tables and free from the EU we can be there as a member in our own right.

Brussels? It's yesterday's man. It's global standards now baby.

That's where the action is.

Right, so how's that going to work then? we're going to overhaul the WTO to be truly free, customless trade for all?

Herzlos wrote:
Right, so we're going to overhaul the WTO to be truly free, customless trade for all?

I keep getting logged out. Bah.

Anyway, I'm getting a bit carried away here. Of course the EU is a big player, but I am surprised at how much is decided at a global level these days away from Brussels. Very impressive stuff in many respects.

As for the WTO, obviously we can't change things unilaterally, but as an independent state, we can lobby hard with like minded nations to bring about change.

It's going to be a lot longer than 6-12 months.

It's going to be more like 10 years before the UK starts to recover to where we were in the early 2000s.

20 lost years.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
.

As for the WTO, obviously we can't change things unilaterally, but as an independent state, we can lobby hard with like minded nations to bring about change.

So the UK can't find enough like minded nations to change things in the EU (so the Leave narrative goes) but will somehow manage at the WTO?

That sounds like quite a tall order. Especially when economically the UK looks a lot more like other EU countries than anything else in the world.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Research? Facts? I love 'em!

Oh do go and pull the other one. You've spent the last two years doing every kind of mental gymnastics to ignore facts.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
My limited research has only just scratched the surface but feth me, regulations are increasingly made at a global level: UN, UNECE, WTO, IPCC, WCO.

How much of that do you think the eu has a serious input into, as one of the major trading blocs in the world?

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
It's harmonization, it's common standards, regulations. It's detail baby.

So everything you hate about brexit. And detail? Lol, that's a first. I thought you only liked sensationalist headlines.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Brussels? Feth Brussels, because Geneva and New York are the places to be. That's where the action is happening. Unknown, forgotten organisations make the rules, the EU adopts them and rebrands them as their own. Everything from car tyre standards and vehicle registration, to fishing and environmental rulings etc etc

And you seriously,don't think the eu has a big say on these kinds of things? I thought you liked facts all of a sudden?

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:T
Britain needs its seat at those tables and free from the EU we can be there as a member in our own right.

And who will listen?

Christ, you complain about being at the table of 27 and not getting to eat your cake and have it. And now all of a sudden you,are dictating to the world? I guess that's what it's about. To Britain (and more specifically England to a large extent), a 'union' is great when Britain gets to dictate to everyone and push everyone else around, but the second you are one equal amongst many, and it's a bad thing. The world isn't like that, and you are in for one hell of a shock if you,think any different.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Brussels? It's yesterday's man. It's global standards now baby.
That's where the action is.

No, that's London that's yesterday's man. The world will care very little for little Britain after this.

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
As for the WTO, obviously we can't change things unilaterally, but as an independent state, we can lobby hard with like minded nations to bring about change.

Which has more ability to bring change - the eu, or some backwater off the edge of it? You do realise we will have problems actually negotiating our own position at the wto?

jouso wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
.

As for the WTO, obviously we can't change things unilaterally, but as an independent state, we can lobby hard with like minded nations to bring about change.

So the UK can't find enough like minded nations to change things in the EU (so the Leave narrative goes) but will somehow manage at the WTO?

That sounds like quite a tall order. Especially when economically the UK looks a lot more like other EU countries than anything else in the world.

Ahem!


We'll do business with ya.

But only on your terms.

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
But only on your terms.

Erm... come again?

Nothing is stopping you from mirroring the EU agreements...and...we're not the only markets you can trade with either. Yes, ya'll will have to negotiate yourselfs, but you are in the driver seat.

 whembly wrote:

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
But only on your terms.

Erm... come again?

Nothing is stopping you from mirroring the EU agreements...and...we're not the only markets you can trade with either. Yes, ya'll will have to negotiate yourselfs, but you are in the driver seat.

What leverage will we have? We won't have the backup of 26 other economies, we'll be a reduced economy, what reason would a country going through a "these are all terrible deals" phase have to play softball with the UK in that position?

whembly wrote:We'll do business with ya.

None of the statements from the US government have in any way indicated that this would end with good (or acceptable) deals for the UK. The best bet for the UK is (no matter what type of Brexit it'll end up being) to make trade with the EU a thing that works. Those entities are right next to each other (just a tiny bit of water separates us) and need to work together.

That's that makes Brexit so infuriating. To use a wargaming comparison: Instead of working on improving what's already there the UK pushed all the minis off the table and now wants to design a whole new game from the ground up while keeping the old game going without interruptions (the one they just pushed off the table). In this the USA are like somebody shouting an hour later from the next room about their own game variation that barely looks like what the UK wants to play.

Interesting analogy.

The UK is like a 40k player who does not always win, and rather than discussing with the other players they moan about poorly written rules and how everything is so unfair.

The US is the warmahordes player shouting about how much fairer and better written their game is, who is then smashing anyone who comes to their table.

The UK Is like a 40K player who has entered a tournament, got upset about whatever blah blah and now wants his entry fee back if the tournament organisers -- of which he was one -- won't change all the rules to suit him.

So do the Brexiters banging on about wto understand what that actually means? I am pretty sure Moggy and his ilk do but IDNLT and the actual voters not so much.

There are a number of issues with WTO the main one is that were only technically members, we have to split our membership off from the EU and this has to be ratified by every member.
The US,China and Australia have all ready raised objections and that leaves another 125+ countries who also could object and it only takes 1 to stop any progress.

The next issue is if we leave the shelter of the EU's negotiated opt outs and restrictions as full WTO members then it's bye bye NHS. Any nationalised industry that has even a small privatised part has to open the rest for open tender.

This bit is why has the Tory right has such a hard on for WTO as it means that unlike normal after they have fethed up the country Labour cannot fix it ever.

 whembly wrote:

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
But only on your terms.

Erm... come again?

Nothing is stopping you from mirroring the EU agreements...and...we're not the only markets you can trade with either. Yes, ya'll will have to negotiate yourselfs, but you are in the driver seat.

That's not quite correct. A trade agreement is something that both parties must agree on. Ultimately the one with the largest buying power has the greatest say because the smaller country has less to offer. The advantage of being in the EU is that you get collective bargaining power. Yes we might not benefit from the element on oranges, but the same element benefits on apples does help us but not Malta. You also have the advantage of size. Our wine industry is tiny relatively and is unlikely to hold much value in the negotiations. Combine all the wine in the EU however and that is something where we can protect/expand the industry which we would also benefit from.

When you are smaller you can only bring less to the table. Therefore we can't bring oranges as possible part of the trade negotiation, something else has to be offered.

The protection the EU provides isn't just on trade. It also ensures a certain quality of product. For example food. In the UK chlorinated chicken is generally rejected as is hormone treated cattle for beef. To accept these practices means lowering out own standards otherwise our own industries can't compete. The EU provides a soft projection of these practices. They aren't perfect but the EU is one of the more environmentally aware instutions out there. Therefore they generally reject products that don't meet certain standards. The UK on its own can never project its own standards because we don't have the clout to agree this in any agreement. In effect we have to take standards (which our government is slowly waking up to).

My support for Brexit has not budged one inch

But I want it done properly, in a phased, safe manner, as a disastrous crash out can only benefit Remain.

Having looked at the papers, I will concede that Remain dakka members were right. It is complex, but that's to be expected after 40 years of membership and harmonization with the rest of the EU.

It's why I'm pragmatic now, because even if we had a competent government working round the clock day and night. it would still be a hard task.

Sadly, we have this shower of gak running the show.

None the less, there are two major issues that the die-hards on both sides won't face:

1. For Remain to want us back in the EU is fantasy politics. It ignores the 17.4 million and destroys our democracy with regard to the referendum. We're not going back.

2. For Brexit die-hards, the WTO option in March 2019 is also fantasy politics. As if 40 years would be undone over night with this gak storm leading the negotiations.

So if we phase things out, rebuild, gradually de-couple ourselves, and sound out other trade deals around the world in the process, we avoid the crash, slowly get to where we want to be, and stop Remain cashing in on a hard crash.


Sadly, what we have is May's white paper which will probably result in a cave in at the last minute, and widespread anger as we have BRINO

or

A hard crash as agitated by the Tory hard core and Remain sweep back to power and they get whiplash from the speed in which they pick up the phone to Brussels.

IMO, the compromise situation with EEA is the only game in town now. I would urge other Dakka members to adopt this and tell your friends and family about it.






Automatically Appended Next Post:

SeanDrake wrote:
So do the Brexiters banging on about wto understand what that actually means? I am pretty sure Moggy and his ilk do but IDNLT and the actual voters not so much.

There are a number of issues with WTO the main one is that were only technically members, we have to split our membership off from the EU and this has to be ratified by every member.
The US,China and Australia have all ready raised objections and that leaves another 125+ countries who also could object and it only takes 1 to stop any progress.

The next issue is if we leave the shelter of the EU's negotiated opt outs and restrictions as full WTO members then it's bye bye NHS. Any nationalised industry that has even a small privatised part has to open the rest for open tender.

This bit is why has the Tory right has such a hard on for WTO as it means that unlike normal after they have fethed up the country Labour cannot fix it ever.

It's why I've now shifted for the compromise EEA solution.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
My support for Brexit has not budged one inch
.

There's a big piece missing in your analysis.

You are seemingly blaming all of the current woes in the implementation rather than look at the elephant in the room that is why leave for a worse deal (slightly worse is still worse) for no obvious benefit.

There are only shades of economic and social damage. At several levels.

It's not time to reassess the process of leaving, it's time to have a long hard look at exactly what made so many people think they would be better off outside the EU when it's so blindingly obvious it will not be the case, under any scenario.

What do people think about the issues with the Pairing system over the Brexit vote?

jouso wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
My support for Brexit has not budged one inch
.

There's a big piece missing in your analysis.

You are seemingly blaming all of the current woes in the implementation rather than look at the elephant in the room that is why leave for a worse deal (slightly worse is still worse) for no obvious benefit.

There are only shades of economic and social damage. At several levels.

It's not time to reassess the process of leaving, it's time to have a long hard look at exactly what made so many people think they would be better off outside the EU when it's so blindingly obvious it will not be the case, under any scenario.

You guys were right to say that in or out of the EU, you have to follow somebody's rules on a global level, even if it were only basic WTO.

The nature of global trade, inter-linked systems, and modern comms, means that no man is an island. That's the reality.

It's also the reality that trading standards are getting decided elsewhere in Geneva and New York by various global bodies.

None the less, we know that most global growth in the next few decades is happening outside Europe, and rather than focus on purely the trade, the EU is more interested in the politics. If it had stuck with the common market and the trade, the EU wouldn't be in the mess it's in.

That is my long term goal for Brexit: proper trade on a global basis and not bogged down with this moribund, United States of Europe horsegak.

That is the Brexit prize if it's done properly.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Mr Morden wrote:
What do people think about the issues with the Pairing system over the Brexit vote?

The pairing system should be scrapped. I've seen footage of that Lib Dem MP at a Trump protest.


If she could attend that, then there was no reason why she couldn't attend Parliament for the vote.