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I don't think we will get a second referendum anyway.

I think the most likely result is a last minute fudge in which the EU gives May some of what she's asking for but not all of it, and we will have a fairly soft Brexit, and end up with a Swiss kind of deal. This will be accepted by Parliament as the least bad choice.

I honestly do not believe there is enough support in Parliament or the country for a genuine Hard Brexit, though it could happen by default.

Yeah, a referendum can be binding or non binding. Cameron went for the latter. If they made a second one that was binding that would be consistent with the rules.

@ Kilkrazy

I would bet money that that’s what eventually happens.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Yeah, we know we spent 2 years telling you that referendums are non-binding, that the result was not legitimate, and we know we called you thick, stupid, and racist for expecting the result to be honoured.

Can you ever make a statement without twisting what other people have said.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Yeah, we know we spent 2 years telling you that referendums are non-binding

It was. That is a legal fact.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

that the result was not legitimate

Because the leave side lied and broke the law to win.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

, and we know we called you thick, stupid, and racist for expecting the result to be honoured.

No one ever said any of that. The facts showed that leave voters tended to have a lower level of education, as well as being older and in lower socio-economic groups. You took that as thick and stupid. The campaigning showed that far right groups and anti immigration groups were pro-brexit and that anti immigration had a big part to play in the campaign, and that a large part of this was racially driven. Racially motivated crime spiked around the referendum. No one ever used these as insults for expecting the result to be honoured.

Leave broke the law to win. Now you insist that does not matter. Then you have the gall to claim people who voted remain are ideologically motivated.

That’s the other thing; since Leave effectively cheated, it’s really undermined any legitimacy the vote had. I cannot tolerate cheating. Believe it or not, I do actually have standards. It must be 100% fair and square. And it wasn’t so...

I think people are overlooking 2 major factors that would stop any referendum.

1. The party before country Tories, who will hang on to the bitter end and not risk a major split a referendum would bring.

2. Time. Pure and simple. Where does the time come from? We're on summer holidays for Parliament, back for a few weeks in the Autumn, then a break for Conference season, a possible Tory leadership campaign, last minute talks with the EU, Christmas. Are we going to hold a referendum in March? Very doubtful.


And then you have to get it through the Commons. Might not be easy, and then, even after the referendum, Gina Millar has established a precedent that an act of parliament is needed to pass any result of this magnitude. Tory rebels might wreck it in the Commons.

If there's a referendum before March 2019, I'll change my name to Dakka MacDakkaface

What is the difference, for the British people, between a hard brexit and a soft brexit ? I get that the Union wants to keep access to you fishing area, so wants a soft brexit. What would you get with a soft brexit ?
How did Leave cheat ? That's the first time I read this, I would like to know more

 godardc wrote:
What is the difference, for the British people, between a hard brexit and a soft brexit ? I get that the Union wants to keep access to you fishing area, so wants a soft brexit. What would you get with a soft brexit ?

Fish is a sideshow in a small part of the whole Brexit thing. It only gets talked so much because at one point UKIP made it a key sovereignty issue.

It's one small bullet point at the end of a very long memo.

The union wants to keep Britain in because no one wants to deal with a shrinking budget, the PR effect of one of the biggest countries leaving the Euro and very especially the years-long re-aligning process which will bring lots of opportunities for long-term acrimony between former partners.

OTOH Britain has proven to be a less than reliable partner, often derailing and destabilising key negotiations if things didn't go their way. Which led to appeasement in the form of opt-outs and diminished participations which in turn led to tensions between the bigger partners who do their work.

At this point both Britain actually leaving or staying will have major implications in the way the EU conducts themselves in internal negotiations. It will be a major turning point either way.

 godardc wrote:
What is the difference, for the British people, between a hard brexit and a soft brexit ? I get that the Union wants to keep access to you fishing area, so wants a soft brexit. What would you get with a soft brexit ?
How did Leave cheat ? That's the first time I read this, I would like to know more

Apart from the fairly obvious lies, like the £350 million Brexit Bus, there were offences against election law, involving overspending, collusion between legally separate campaigns, and cheating on their record keeping in order to cover up the previous. Some record fines have been handed out for this.

Various Leave campaign members have been reported for to the police for possible criminal proceedings for these issues.

For what it's worth, they also used the unethically gathered Campridge Analytica data from Facebook.

Finally there is a whiff of Russian involvement, though nothing has been proved.

My boy is at Oxford this week. The British version of the Libertarian Party doubled in size!

What's he doing, Frazz?

jouso wrote:
Fish is a sideshow in a small part of the whole Brexit thing. It only gets talked so much because at one point UKIP made it a key sovereignty issue.

The British fishing industry is worth approximately as much as the British dog insurance industry. If it doubles in value due to Brexit (ha! ha!) it would be worth a little bit more than the British pet insurance industry. In 2016 fishing employed 11,800 fishermen across the UK, of whom approximately 2,300 were part-time. For comparison the British car industry directly employs 169,000 in manufacturing and in excess of 814,000 across the wider automotive industry.

Nigel Farage, then leader of UKIP, and still an MEP is a member of the influential European parliament fisheries committee. Over three years, he turned up to one of 42 meetings. Research by Greenpeace shows that during the three major votes on the common fisheries policy, Farage failed to vote in favour of improving the legislation.

As a general rule of thumb only the UK's most incompetent, most corrupt politicians supported Brexit before the referendum.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Well, the uk is a fairly big market of what, 70 million people? Lot of money to be made there. We’re also apparently good at robotics and weapons if that’s your thing. Medicine too I think. Jaguar Land Rover make some of the best cars in the world, although it’s India who owns them. Mini, Vauxhall and Nissan manufacture here too. Part of our problem is focusing on services over manufacturing though. I’d always back the former over the latter.

FYI, this smug dismissive attitude towards the UK (what are you even good for?) is probably one reason why remain lost imo.

EDIT: I forgot Astin Martin and McClaren, and our contributions towards Formula 1 racing. We could, if we put our minds to it, become a major player in the world of film, if we’re not already there.

It's hilarious how my genuine curiosity was framed as being a smug dismissive attitude, but I guess I should not have expected anything less from a brexiteer. It also nicely highlights why I am tired of them; their unceasing arrogance. Thankfully, this arrogance does tend to backfire in spectacular fashion every now and then. We've seen it during Black Wednesday (remember that one? What is it with Torries and making an already bad situation worse with a cavalcade of dumb mistakes that proceed to cost the UK billions?), and we'll hopefully see it when the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Imagine that, an EU without the special needs child that always takes an arm when it's offered a finger. A country whose citizens can't seem to figure out that the reason that their politicians are not getting anything done in the EU, is because they want to be treated like they are big, special and important, like a child.

Oh well, I suppose the UK will have good luck with their fishing and car manufacturing industries. On a bit of a side note: I work at a public notary and have noticed a steady increase of Britain based people starting businesses in the Netherlands, which is an interesting development on its own.

 Cruxeh wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Well, the uk is a fairly big market of what, 70 million people? Lot of money to be made there. We’re also apparently good at robotics and weapons if that’s your thing. Medicine too I think. Jaguar Land Rover make some of the best cars in the world, although it’s India who owns them. Mini, Vauxhall and Nissan manufacture here too. Part of our problem is focusing on services over manufacturing though. I’d always back the former over the latter.

FYI, this smug dismissive attitude towards the UK (what are you even good for?) is probably one reason why remain lost imo.

EDIT: I forgot Astin Martin and McClaren, and our contributions towards Formula 1 racing. We could, if we put our minds to it, become a major player in the world of film, if we’re not already there.

It's hilarious how my genuine curiosity was framed as being a smug dismissive attitude, but I guess I should not have expected anything less from a brexiteer. It also nicely highlights why I am tired of them; their unceasing arrogance. Thankfully, this arrogance does tend to backfire in spectacular fashion every now and then. We've seen it during Black Wednesday (remember that one? What is it with Torries and making an already bad situation worse with a cavalcade of dumb mistakes that proceed to cost the UK billions?), and we'll hopefully see it when the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Imagine that, an EU without the special needs child that always takes an arm when it's offered a finger. A country whose citizens can't seem to figure out that the reason that their politicians are not getting anything done in the EU, is because they want to be treated like they are big, special and important, like a child.

Oh well, I suppose the UK will have good luck with their fishing and car manufacturing industries. On a bit of a side note: I work at a public notary and have noticed a steady increase of Britain based people starting businesses in the Netherlands, which is an interesting development on its own.

Maybe you shouldn’t call Britain the special needs child? Because it gives off the wrong impression.

 Future War Cultist wrote:

 Cruxeh wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Well, the uk is a fairly big market of what, 70 million people? Lot of money to be made there. We’re also apparently good at robotics and weapons if that’s your thing. Medicine too I think. Jaguar Land Rover make some of the best cars in the world, although it’s India who owns them. Mini, Vauxhall and Nissan manufacture here too. Part of our problem is focusing on services over manufacturing though. I’d always back the former over the latter.

FYI, this smug dismissive attitude towards the UK (what are you even good for?) is probably one reason why remain lost imo.

EDIT: I forgot Astin Martin and McClaren, and our contributions towards Formula 1 racing. We could, if we put our minds to it, become a major player in the world of film, if we’re not already there.

It's hilarious how my genuine curiosity was framed as being a smug dismissive attitude, but I guess I should not have expected anything less from a brexiteer. It also nicely highlights why I am tired of them; their unceasing arrogance. Thankfully, this arrogance does tend to backfire in spectacular fashion every now and then. We've seen it during Black Wednesday (remember that one? What is it with Torries and making an already bad situation worse with a cavalcade of dumb mistakes that proceed to cost the UK billions?), and we'll hopefully see it when the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Imagine that, an EU without the special needs child that always takes an arm when it's offered a finger. A country whose citizens can't seem to figure out that the reason that their politicians are not getting anything done in the EU, is because they want to be treated like they are big, special and important, like a child.

Oh well, I suppose the UK will have good luck with their fishing and car manufacturing industries. On a bit of a side note: I work at a public notary and have noticed a steady increase of Britain based people starting businesses in the Netherlands, which is an interesting development on its own.

Maybe you shouldn’t call Britain the special needs child? Because it gives off the wrong impression.

It is not a wrong impression if it is true.

https://twitter.com/SheRa_Marley/status/1021434135586516993

so if you're not doing anything for 2 hours tomorrow then you can get paid to pretend to welcome the king of Qatar.

...hope that's their govt. paying for this.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I don't think we will get a second referendum anyway.

I think the most likely result is a last minute fudge in which the EU gives May some of what she's asking for but not all of it, and we will have a fairly soft Brexit, and end up with a Swiss kind of deal. This will be accepted by Parliament as the least bad choice.

I honestly do not believe there is enough support in Parliament or the country for a genuine Hard Brexit, though it could happen by default.

The issue here though is an assumption that the Hard right nutcase won't want to bring May down at the prime opportunity. That she runs scared of them and not of the Remainers says a lot about where the power really is. If they block any deal then May is in a hard place. If she calls an election Tories likely lose to a combined swing towards SNP/Labour/LDs. As she puts party before country then she will probably resign. That leaves open a leadership race. The likelihood is that we will end up with a Remainer vs Hard leaver. Tory party faithful members are mostly hard Wrexit nutcases. Therefore the person winning is likely to be on the hard right. That probably puts JRM in contention as he is the only one not tarnished by everything, just sniping daft ideology.

Hence we could see the following:-

EU won't sacrifice their 4 main tenets (a bit like asking the US to give up its constitution). In addition every other trade deal, those in EFTA etc will all be asking why the UK gets special treatment - it could leave bad blood between those countries and the EU.
May takes some form of compromise, which will either end up as a) falling out the EU and relying on a FTA and the UK is split down the Irish sea or more likely full customs union.
The nutcase hard right object and vote against the plan
May resigns triggering a leadership election
A hard right nutcase is voted in (e.g. JRM)
They plough ahead with no deal Wrexit.
Transport of goods and services comes to a grinding halt
Supplies start running short after a couple of weeks
The military is brought in to distribute food/medicine
Rationing is applied on food/medicine and then fuel
People start protesting / riots break out in areas where there is a shortage of food / fuel
As a backstop for the wasted resources on protests and riots, curfews are applied banning protests and limiting journeys to essentials/work
The police being underfunded for years can not deal with the situation.
Military duties expanded to police the country
The lack of food/medicines results in people being forced to work in certain areas (forced labour for prisoners for food picking etc).
Emergency powers are enacted to give Government overriding control, elections are withheld for the foreseeable future...

If I was in London I would be tempted to try and get a load of friends to sign up for that. No need to protest. Just stand around and look board and disinterested.

 Cruxeh wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Well, the uk is a fairly big market of what, 70 million people? Lot of money to be made there. We’re also apparently good at robotics and weapons if that’s your thing. Medicine too I think. Jaguar Land Rover make some of the best cars in the world, although it’s India who owns them. Mini, Vauxhall and Nissan manufacture here too. Part of our problem is focusing on services over manufacturing though. I’d always back the former over the latter.

FYI, this smug dismissive attitude towards the UK (what are you even good for?) is probably one reason why remain lost imo.

EDIT: I forgot Astin Martin and McClaren, and our contributions towards Formula 1 racing. We could, if we put our minds to it, become a major player in the world of film, if we’re not already there.

It's hilarious how my genuine curiosity was framed as being a smug dismissive attitude, but I guess I should not have expected anything less from a brexiteer. It also nicely highlights why I am tired of them; their unceasing arrogance. Thankfully, this arrogance does tend to backfire in spectacular fashion every now and then. We've seen it during Black Wednesday (remember that one? What is it with Torries and making an already bad situation worse with a cavalcade of dumb mistakes that proceed to cost the UK billions?), and we'll hopefully see it when the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Imagine that, an EU without the special needs child that always takes an arm when it's offered a finger. A country whose citizens can't seem to figure out that the reason that their politicians are not getting anything done in the EU, is because they want to be treated like they are big, special and important, like a child.

Oh well, I suppose the UK will have good luck with their fishing and car manufacturing industries. On a bit of a side note: I work at a public notary and have noticed a steady increase of Britain based people starting businesses in the Netherlands, which is an interesting development on its own.

It is worth remembering that the UK might be a Special Needs Child (not my words) but it was also one with a wallet full of cash that most of the other kids wanted to tap.

Rightly or wrongly many people see the EU as a direct drain on our resources and the hope for many was that without this drain they could spend it on the peope who needed it here. Now its fair to say many also saw that that the self interested "representatives of the people at Westminster" are not the best people to help the rest of the country but I guess it was also thought our dodgy dealers (MPs) are better than foreign dodgy dealers (Euro MPs and Commisoners).

I think there is a also a psycolgical difference in that Britain, unlike most of the EU was neither conquered or was the conquerer during the 2nd World War so whilst it might have destroyed its re-eminent position in s merely survivng and helping liberating Europe it did not have the same background in the creation of the EU.

Again rightly or wrongly - whilst much of Europe looks back (understandably) at WWII as the dark days they want to avoid - many in the UK see it as our final finest hour.....

 reds8n wrote:




https://twitter.com/SheRa_Marley/status/1021434135586516993

so if you're not doing anything for 2 hours tomorrow then you can get paid to pretend to welcome the king of Qatar.

...hope that's their govt. paying for this.

Doesn't say you can't protest. Take an EU flag or two....

 Kilkrazy wrote:
What's he doing, Frazz?

Mad scientist theoretical math/computer science symposium thingy. No presentation this time but he will be presenting in Paris next year.

 Frazzled wrote:
My boy is at Oxford this week. The British version of the Libertarian Party doubled in size!

If he is in to his gaming I can highly recommend going to thirsty Meeples.

 Iron_Captain wrote:


Maybe you shouldn’t call Britain the special needs child? Because it gives off the wrong impression.

It is not a wrong impression if it is true.

Like night follows day Labour get a lead in the polls and up pops a blairite right winger to attack Cobyn.

Now call me old fashioned but it seems a little off to call your boss a fething racist anti-semite in public and to then get huffy about being brought up on an disciplinary.

But hey I'm not a multi millionaire tax dodging hypocrite what despises there boss and everything he stands for.

 Frazzled wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
What's he doing, Frazz?

Mad scientist theoretical math/computer science symposium thingy. No presentation this time but he will be presenting in Paris next year.

Well done him!

Expected it to be Weiner Assault Strategy and Effective Lawn Shouting myself?

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Expected it to be Weiner Assault Strategy and Effective Lawn Shouting myself?

Thats me or the daughter. She's fierce and has silver hair right now.

So whats with this Boris guy? Is he a Bond villain?

 Frazzled wrote:
So whats with this Boris guy? Is he a Bond villain?

He wishes he was that competent. He's more in the Johnny English league.

Not even that.

He plays the Buffoon, but is, in his own mind and those of simpletons, a Machiavellian Political Genius.

Except he let the mask slip, and now is widely regarded as an entirely self serving, slimy, untrustworthy turd.

And worse, in his mask slipping, so are the Tories expose.

Eff everyone else if I can make a few quid might as well be their next campaign slogo.

I think the argument for Brexit has been comprehensively defeated when the only 2 defenders of it left on this forum are trying to find a comptomise to mitigate the worst of its consequences and even Jacob Rees-Mogg concedes that it could be 50 years before the UK may see a benefit from this venture.

On top of Brexit, centrist politics and the Conservative party have failed the country in every single area. I have never before seen Govts in this country recommend that we start stockpiling resources against a future they have created.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/24/theresa-may-brexit-no-deal-panic-stockpiling-food-civil-unrest

Is this careful, prudent economic management? A steady hand on the tiller? I've just watched Owen Jones discussing the rise of communist ideology amongst millenials with my jaw agape. I cannot believe that the Conservatives have brought things to such a state that some idiots are seriously touting communism as a solution. Where are the Tories on this forum? Any of them care to justify and defend the path of their political ideology?

I thought not.

Boris and Jacob Rees-Mogg are both symptoms of the disease in English faux intellectualism where if someone speaks with an RP accent and throws in the odd reference to history and the classics, people think they are a genius. I can remember plenty of Oxbridge educated columnists and so on saying that Boris was "fiercely intelligent". I see no evidence for this in his actions, he is a hollow man, a venal narcissist. Rees-Mogg is a more dangerous character, but he is also not very bright.

Few enough anymore in the UK political and media classes seem to have any sort of technical education. I think it is a serious problem. This is after all the country that gave us anti-vaccination scares on a huge scale due to it's scientifically illiterate press. The PPE degree that many politicians do as preparation for being parachuted into a safe seat contains no scientific education whatsoever. I really think this is why logistical stuff like medicines supply, food supply and so on goes over the heads of the people in charge - they are just not used to thinking in those real, concrete terms.

I have been thinking about the factors in English society that have lead to it's hollowing out and failure as this debacle progressed and perhaps it is just my own bias (my background is in agricultural science and physics) but this really seems to me to be a big slice of the problem along with the absolutely rotten political system that creates these "safe seats". In a democracy no seat should be safe, it allows incompetence to rise to the top.

I mean look at the Tory leadership. To be considered, you have to be in a "safe seat". But to win a marginal, you need to be quite a good MP. So the good MPs get dispatched to the marginals and therefore count themselves out of the leadership jostling while those with the "right" background and connections get parachuted into a safe seat and can play silly buggers trying to get a top job. Same is true in the Labour Party of course, it was the Blairites who pioneered all this stuff.

I find it all fascinating, because growing up I always had a grudging respect for the way politics was conducted in the UK, I always wished Irish politicians would be more like those in the UK. Now I really do not feel that way any more.