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If the UK is apparently "imploding" then I'm not sure how I'd describe the USA....
One profit related factor is labour cost. The UK has seen year on year rises in the national living wage which tends to impact most wages, not just the lowest, as well as increases to what employers legally have to pay into a pension. On top of that there is a labour shortage in Nottingham, where they are based, so this impacts starting wages and costs.
My feeling is we are going to see £60 SC sets.
Compared to equivalent products then most, not all, are still good value. Paint is a non issue, in most towns and cities in the UK it's the only paint range on the high street. Even in Nottingham I couldn't tell you if anyone has Vallejo as the only other stockist is in Derby.
Looking at other UK business then these rises are actually quite restrained tbh.
TheSecretSquig wrote: UK 2019 forecasted inflation is predicted to be around 2%. GW's £0.20 rise on paint pots is 8%. I'm sue there's some logic there............... Just struggling to see it.
When was the last time GW incresed the cost of the paint cost and what have the accumulated inflation been under that time?
also the pound has lost in value and with brexit it will lose more, so all production cost will increase
But every sale outside the U.K. will be worth more, and frequently at a higher GBP price than U.K. RRP.
This only works if they can buy materials to produce these in the UK. Every single thing they need to import, no matter what it is, paper, plastic, mould tools, anything really, will also go up eating these sales and making UK sales worse comparatively. Add to that big possibility of no deal REMOVED, DO NOT CIRCUMVENT THE LANGUAGE FILTER - BrookM adding tariffs on top of that, both ways, and I can see why GW is scared.
Luciferian wrote: Vallejo was a better deal than Citadel paints before, it will be even more so after this. I think that GW's model prices are pretty fair, but I don’t know where they get off charging so much for their paint.
One thing I don't get is why GW does so little to promote their paints. I saw a video recently showing '12' ml of GW being pretty much equal to '18' ml of others (well emptied GW pot filled dropper bottle to about same level as fresh competitor) but the PR damage from under-reporting is huge. I saw hundreds of videos or articles saying "buy Vallejo, they give you 50% more" or dividing GW price by lower capacity to show they are more expensive. If they transitioned to a dropper bottle (say, call it 'bolter shell' design or whatever if they need to trademark it), claimed it now has 20 ml for the same price, then even with little change to actual paint content they would start selling much more. And it's not like they are even limited in any way in paint production seeing it's completely outsourced.
The only explanation I can think of is the fact technical paints probably don't like dropper bottles and GW doesn't want to run two different bottle sizes...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 17:35:39
Overread wrote: I think the share price also took a hit because the bubble on their outstanding rise started to burst and GW themselves noted that they expected things to level off. So they likely saw a loss of value and investors who were in it for the fast gains and who have now likely moved onto other fast growing companies. Also lets not forget that, at least last time I checked, their share price is still way up for GW in general.
Yes shares always do a bit of that. However there was a clear issue with their last financials in that their sales were still on the same upward trend but their profits were stalling. Given what we know about the business model - big upfront costs but low production costs for models - that should not happen. An increase in sales should see a larger increase in profits from the simple economics we see discussed on threads like this but clearly that has not been the case in 2018.
Given that their profits did not track their sales as expected the likely dividends similarly will not and the shares are then worth less. At one point the price had dipped into what I would consider an over-correction just as when they were heading for GBP40 I believed they were overvalued - even so the current price seems to factor in some problem with turning sales into profits. As a business GW would want to deal with any such problem and nip it in the bud. I would guess that the change in SC set pricing is part of that.
The paint prices are just a non-issue from a business point of view, they put them up infrequently but this increase looks to be in line with general inflation on that basis. On a personal point of view we would all like stuff that effectively gets cheaper over time with fixed prices that ignore inflation but that is not a business-like way of looking at things.
Looking at the number of new models being dropped I am wondering if profit stalls are due to upfront costs of making so many new moulds.
timetowaste85 wrote: So, I confess to not knowing much about other companies’ paint “blends”...but GW having pricier paints that come pre-set as shades, base paints, layers, edges, dries, washes, glazes...part of that upcost is having the paint styles ready made for everyone to pick up and use immediately without having to fish for that correct blend. Or pigment changes that allow for good coverage for difficult colors like red, yellow and orange. $0.25/pot increase won’t kill me. The SC cost increases suck though...gonna snag 2 Slaanesh SC boxes off eBay before the hike hits.
The market proposition for GW paints is really very different to the competitors. They are part of a whole approach including video tutorials (Peachy and Duncan), an app that will remind you of workable combos and store staff who can advise on colours and combinations. It is all extremely beginner-friendly for a hobby that could be a bit hard for beginners to get into at a decent level. Everything about their range - even the bottle design so despised in this thread - is designed to be beginner-friendly. A 2.70 pot of paint that comes with all that easily accessible support and guidance is far better value for money for a beginner than a 1.80 dropper bottle that does not. The pot prices are going up in line with inflation since they last went up, the proposition and market positioning of their paints is not changing at all.
This is only true for absolute beginners though. GW's paint system is actually really impressive, i wish it was in place when I still worked at an FLGS as I still recommend GW paints as the best option to absolute beginners. But ONLY to absolute beginners! If you have any experience painting anything then you'll get just as much mileage out of Reaper's Triad system of paints (for significantly cheaper) or Warcolours 1-5 system (for significantly cheaper), and Armypainter washes are every bit as good as GW washes (for significantly cheaper) and you can colormatch near enough any GW paint with Vallejo Game Color or Model Color (for significantly cheaper).
GW has crafted an amazing step-by-step system to getting new players up and running quickly and effectively with good table-top quility paintjobs. They've become the Ikea of miniatures painting
The market proposition for GW paints is really very different to the competitors. They are part of a whole approach including video tutorials (Peachy and Duncan), an app that will remind you of workable combos and store staff who can advise on colours and combinations. It is all extremely beginner-friendly for a hobby that could be a bit hard for beginners to get into at a decent level. Everything about their range - even the bottle design so despised in this thread - is designed to be beginner-friendly. A 2.70 pot of paint that comes with all that easily accessible support and guidance is far better value for money for a beginner than a 1.80 dropper bottle that does not. The pot prices are going up in line with inflation since they last went up, the proposition and market positioning of their paints is not changing at all.
Let's be honest, though; you don't have to be a pro painter to realize that crimson red is crimson red or that you can thin your paints a little more and get a different level of opacity out of them. The painting tutorials are already free and apply equally to other paint ranges as long as you have the capacity to compare like colors. I'm color blind and even I can do it. The only additional value proposition in the GW paint system is that, instead of Duncan saying, "I'm going to use a dark red and thin it out a bit more than I would for a base coat," he says, "now I'm breaking out my Mephiston Red Layer Paint (tm)" in an effort to get you to buy several bottles of the same color with a slight adjustment in medium, hoping that you won't realize that every other company out there has a nearly identical shade of red with a more mundane name and that any paint can be a base, layer or glaze depending on how much water or medium you add to it yourself.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Looking at the number of new models being dropped I am wondering if profit stalls are due to upfront costs of making so many new moulds.
Was thinking same. Also weren't they in process of building new production capacity due to capacity issues? Was that 2017 or 2018? Ie could that have been making dent in profit line.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 18:46:08
Paints last went up mid-2015, Base paints went from £2.40 to £2.55, Edge paints from £2.55 to £2.75, Shades went up in price but also pot size.
Well remembered.
In that case this price rise is almost exactly in line with inflation since the last price rise, so there is really nothing worthy of discussion on the paint prices.
Overread wrote: I think the share price also took a hit because the bubble on their outstanding rise started to burst and GW themselves noted that they expected things to level off. So they likely saw a loss of value and investors who were in it for the fast gains and who have now likely moved onto other fast growing companies. Also lets not forget that, at least last time I checked, their share price is still way up for GW in general.
Yes shares always do a bit of that. However there was a clear issue with their last financials in that their sales were still on the same upward trend but their profits were stalling. Given what we know about the business model - big upfront costs but low production costs for models - that should not happen. An increase in sales should see a larger increase in profits from the simple economics we see discussed on threads like this but clearly that has not been the case in 2018.
Given that their profits did not track their sales as expected the likely dividends similarly will not and the shares are then worth less. At one point the price had dipped into what I would consider an over-correction just as when they were heading for GBP40 I believed they were overvalued - even so the current price seems to factor in some problem with turning sales into profits. As a business GW would want to deal with any such problem and nip it in the bud. I would guess that the change in SC set pricing is part of that.
The paint prices are just a non-issue from a business point of view, they put them up infrequently but this increase looks to be in line with general inflation on that basis. On a personal point of view we would all like stuff that effectively gets cheaper over time with fixed prices that ignore inflation but that is not a business-like way of looking at things.
Looking at the number of new models being dropped I am wondering if profit stalls are due to upfront costs of making so many new moulds.
They’re opening a new factory. The upfront investment is large for that. Of course shareholders are lemmings and probably saw slightly lower profit margins and started bleating “raise prices! Raise prices!” Like moronic sheep. The inability for publicly traded companies to do any investing without raising a tizzy over margins because all profit has to happen RIGHT NOW leads to gak like the 08 crash.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 19:40:34
2019/01/05 19:44:43
Subject: Ok, 5 pages? Time for an omnibus reply...
Arbitrator wrote: They probably figure if they do this now, people will defend it and some might even support it out of some weird place of fanboyism.
Already happening, including right below my last post:
I just want to say thank you to GW for the heads up on the approaching price rises! Another sign of their big attitude change toward gamers!
That's someone defending, nay, thankingGW for this, because they told us in advance. It shows the 'big change' in their 'attitude'.
I saw this one and it immediately made me laugh. Has to be a GW plant
I think the most hilarious thing is that GW make this big announcement and then restrict independents to 1 copy of each sc per week making the warning worthless other than as pr spin.
As another poster likes to say Smoke and Mirrors.
Your last point is especially laughable and comical, because not only the 7th ed Valkyrie shown dumber things (like being able to throw the troopers without parachutes out of its hatches, no harm done) - Irbis
Chimaera wrote: So you don’t believe post March the Pound as well as the Euro won’t see fluctuations as well as global currency ones as currencies realign? I am guessing we could see swings larger than GW price hike until things stabilise, whatever that may look like? If there is no deal these could be more varied as well as import export tariffs being introduced, go figure.
If GW’s bankers are worth their salt they are already hedging deals.
I don't believe pound fluctuations have much if anything to do with what they decide to charge in other denominations. If anything, if the pound drops that will only mean they will be earning more from their overseas sales. Usually, if you're an exporter, having your home coin be weak drives sales like nobody's business.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 20:02:25
2019/01/05 20:05:02
Subject: Ok, 5 pages? Time for an omnibus reply...
I think the most hilarious thing is that GW make this big announcement and then restrict independents to 1 copy of each sc per week making the warning worthless other than as pr spin.
So would it be smarter to allow a run on SC kits? They're already having production issues.
2000 Khorne Bloodbound (Skullfiend Tribe- Aqshy)
1000 Tzeentch Arcanites (Pyrofane Cult - Hysh) in progress 2000 Slaves to Darkness (Ravagers)
Wait, there are people that still buy GW paints? Jesus, why?
If you mention second edition 40k I will find you, and I will bore you to tears talking about how "things were better in my day, let me tell ya..." Might even do it if you mention 4th/5th/6th WHFB
Theophony wrote: I’m one of the real wackos as I prefer the GW paints as I paint straight from the pot, no dropper bottles is my preference. That said I have about 100 various dropper bottles from the different ranges to fill in colors. Guess I’ll be trying out the instar paints soon.
Also I had been considering getting some start collecting sets, but then have continuously walked away thinking I can still get better value from other brands. GW still has improved greatly over the last few years.
Instar is awesome.
You will not look back.
Now is the time to change.
This is why people who download gw books have no reason to feel ashamed.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 20:48:38
"I learned the hard way that if you take a stand on any issue, no matter how insignificant, people will line up around the block to kick your ass over it." Jesse "the mind" Ventura.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Looking at the number of new models being dropped I am wondering if profit stalls are due to upfront costs of making so many new moulds.
Was thinking same. Also weren't they in process of building new production capacity due to capacity issues? Was that 2017 or 2018? Ie could that have been making dent in profit line.
2017/early 2018.
The building upgrades were delayed, supposedly, because of structural code issues that needed to be solved first.
My point was a number of folks here seem to explain away or ignore anything bad GW does because they've "changed", and most of that change amounts to a social media presence.
A great video looking back on the year's miniatures does not undo the bull gak of an unnecessary price rise.
What does "bad" mean? That you simply don't like it or that GW is being malign?
Costs probably went up for paints just like how tariffs going up just mean the cost gets passed to the consumer. SC were too good a value and cannibalizing standard kits.
There is plenty of choice for paint out there. If SC pricing breaks your hobby ability with ubiquitous 15% discounts on top plus the occasional additional 10 o 15% off on eBay then it's really the wrong hobby to be in (yes, not all locales benefit in this way).
Considering that you're self professed whale this affects you pretty marginally, right? The company will charge what the market will bear. As long as you continue to buy prices will not cut into their margins more than necessary. And as long as they re-invest their capital into expanding in a sustainable way then I don't really care.
This is a far cry from the old excel sheet of price increases for everything they make.
As always with GW, its those down under I feel sorry for.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Overread wrote: I just want to say thank you to GW for the heads up on the approaching price rises! Another sign of their big attitude change toward gamers!
Is this serious ?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/05 21:37:42
My point was a number of folks here seem to explain away or ignore anything bad GW does because they've "changed", and most of that change amounts to a social media presence.
A great video looking back on the year's miniatures does not undo the bull gak of an unnecessary price rise.
What does "bad" mean? That you simply don't like it or that GW is being malign?
Costs probably went up for paints just like how tariffs going up just mean the cost gets passed to the consumer. SC were too good a value and cannibalizing standard kits.
There is plenty of choice for paint out there. If SC pricing breaks your hobby ability with ubiquitous 15% discounts on top plus the occasional additional 10 o 15% off on eBay then it's really the wrong hobby to be in (yes, not all locales benefit in this way).
Considering that you're self professed whale this affects you pretty marginally, right? The company will charge what the market will bear. As long as you continue to buy prices will not cut into their margins more than necessary. And as long as they re-invest their capital into expanding in a sustainable way then I don't really care.
This is a far cry from the old excel sheet of price increases for everything they make.
Rayvon wrote: As always with GW, its those down under I feel sorry for.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Overread wrote: I just want to say thank you to GW for the heads up on the approaching price rises! Another sign of their big attitude change toward gamers!
Is this serious ?
Yes why shouldn't it be?
I'm not saying that I like paying more nor am I thanking them for raising the prices. I'm saying thank you for informing us a month in advance of a price rise. The rise is going to come whether they told us about it in advance or not. So telling us in advance is good customer service that should be thanked because it gives us some time to react to the change (ergo spend before it rises - if one has the opportunity to do so).
It is an attitude change and a positive one from GW. Price rises are going to happen, them telling us with advanced warning is a very positive thing and a big attitude change from them. I see no reason why they shouldn't be thanked for it.
It's perfectly possible to thank someone for informing you of something even if the thing that they are telling you about isn't something you like.
Rayvon wrote:As always with GW, its those down under I feel sorry for.
What? No love for us Canadians?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/07 00:44:37
Agies Grimm:The "Learn to play, bro" mentality is mostly just a way for someone to try to shame you by implying that their metaphorical nerd-wiener is bigger than yours. Which, ironically, I think nerds do even more vehemently than jocks.
Everything is made up and the points don't matter. 40K or Who's Line is it Anyway?
Auticus wrote: Or in summation: its ok to exploit shoddy points because those are rules and gamers exist to find rules loopholes (they are still "legal"), but if the same force can be composed without structure, it emotionally feels "wrong".
Rayvon wrote: As always with GW, its those down under I feel sorry for.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Overread wrote: I just want to say thank you to GW for the heads up on the approaching price rises! Another sign of their big attitude change toward gamers!
I'm not saying that I like paying more nor am I thanking them for raising the prices. I'm saying thank you for informing us a month in advance of a price rise. The rise is going to come whether they told us about it in advance or not. So telling us in advance is good customer service that should be thanked because it gives us some time to react to the change (ergo spend before it rises - if one has the opportunity to do so).
It is an attitude change and a positive one from GW. Price rises are going to happen, them telling us with advanced warning is a very positive thing and a big attitude change from them. I see no reason why they shouldn't be thanked for it.
It's perfectly possible to thank someone for informing you of something even if the thing that they are telling you about isn't something you like.
They announced price increases in advance during the 'Kirby' era. Are you conveniently forgetting that to fill this narrative of 'a change in attitude' from GW?
Chimaera wrote: Really got to love the race to the bottom on pricing logic some people propose on here
As for apologism suggested, no just reality.
Which ever way you cut it GW produce great figures and the box sets are great value.
Different market but big companies, compare the SW’s Legion offering to Dark Imperium. One cost £80 and the other £95. One gives you loads of card and 33 poor quality figures, the other offers some paper but 53 very high quality miniatures. Which one is better value?
Of course this is a narrow comparison but the point is still valid i.e. how is GW over priced in the market on a quality like for like basis.
Or I could play historicals, where I can get infantry en masse with better sculpting and proportions than GW models for astronomically low prices in comparison. Defending GW prices is nothing but delusional apologism while you're getting fleeced by a company bloating its prices via incompetency. GW needs to finally expand and shift production into cheaper markets with better powergrids than a suburban area.
“There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance.”
Because I paint GW figures and I'm partially color blind - specifically similar shades of blue and green. Following their paint by numbers approach, I can get figures to look how they are supposed to look. Even when I paint Infinity figures, I still use GW's paint system for the colors and highlights.
Sqorgar wrote: Because I paint GW figures and I'm partially color blind - specifically similar shades of blue and green. Following their paint by numbers approach, I can get figures to look how they are supposed to look. Even when I paint Infinity figures, I still use GW's paint system for the colors and highlights.
GW's paint system is incredibly intuitive for those for those of us inexperienced with painting (or colour blind, or both!).
I'm colorblind, but I still know that red is red and green is green even if I have trouble telling them apart. There's really nothing stopping anyone from using GW's paint methods with comparable colors from other companies.
GW paints are actually quite good, just the fact they cost more and give less than basically every other paint out there is a little bothersome since there's no reason for either of those things. There's no reason they should give 12mL for more than you can get 17/17.5mL from Vallejo/Army Painter/P3/anyone else excluding cheap craft paints which are even more for even less at a cost of overall quality.
According to my GW for the US it's paint going up 30 cents and SC going up by 20%.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/01/07 04:52:54
2000 Khorne Bloodbound (Skullfiend Tribe- Aqshy)
1000 Tzeentch Arcanites (Pyrofane Cult - Hysh) in progress
2000 Slaves to Darkness (Ravagers)
