Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Welp, found out Saturday that someone I worked closely with in the call site has been tested and confirmed positive. Had no outward symptoms, which is good, no coughing or sneezing, but I have been told to quarantine by my supervisors. I have the ability to telework so now just juggling that with taking care of my kids who are home since they cancelled schools for 6 weeks.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with everything they are doing, the most impact is made by keeping people apart from each other. Currently I have my kids watching Nat Geo documentaries so we can at least keep some sort of education going until we figure out something else, and I am working away remotely, hoping my co-workers (who also had contact with this person) are able to telework soon.

 techsoldaten wrote:

Try to remember there are differences in how cause of death is recorded in China compared to Western countries.

If someone comes down with Corona Virus and they were diabetic, we call that a CV death. In China, they call that a diabetes death.

It would be difficult to separate the two, practically. For instance, the Spanish Flu did not kill most of the people who died from it. It was a secondary bacteria pneumonia infection which, had they not gotten that, many (even most) would've lived. So did the flu kill all those soldiers, or did pneumonia?

It's also worth pointing out that the general flu's mortality rate is exaggerated as well. When they say 50,000 Americans die from the flu every year, that's not strictly true. They generally combine the deaths of the flu and pneumonia into one number, and also include a lot of other illnesses with flu-like symptoms for which they never tested. There's actually only about 500 deaths due directly to the flu in the US each year. The CDC apparently also triples the number of flu hospitalization cases, since they are only reported if the flu virus is actually found and the CDC considers it to be underreported by a factor of 2.7 and adjusts their numbers based on this estimation.

Welp.

Parents had their holiday cancelled yesterday.
My opponent at the games club tonight is self isolating.
Club is cancelled indefinitely from next week.

Better buy some more models in case I run out of stuff to paint.

We needed to get some prescriptions filled so we ended up stopping at the big supermarket even though I didn't wanna. Surprisingly it wasn't bad at all. TP was all gone, but everything else was fine. Some canned goods were running low, but they were there restocking. With schools all closed and more people at home I expected it to be a madhouse, but it really wasn't too crowded. Though it was pretty busy for a monday afternoon.. maybe like the same you would see on a sunday. We were able to stock up on a lot of stuff.

the diner we like to go to was all closed down though :( I feel bad for them, it's a small family run joint, they really don't do take out. I can see why they made the call to close dining rooms though, in our area anyway most restaurants are swamped on weekends, and people in general are slobs. Better safe than sorry I guess. We also drove by an Applebees and the lot was empty at lunch time, but we saw a few people loading up their cars full with boxes of food, dunno if it was big take out orders or if they were letting employees take home food that would spoil?

When we eventually beat this bastard I propose we call the celebration VV day.

The UK betting on "Herd Immunity (eventually)" feels like a bit of a risk - and with 70+ year old people being told to possibly quarantine themselves for up to 4 months?

Yikes.

 kodos wrote:
20% of the cases needs hospital treatment, the difference in numbers in different countries for deaths depends mostly on how much places are available and how many people need them at the same time

North Italy has much more ill people than beds available and therefore the death rate is higher

I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number. Assuming that is the case, it almost certainly does not control for various factors that could impact the virus' severity. For example, I doubt that 20% of women aged 20-30 with good nutrition, access to clean water and sanitation, which don't smoke or have any underlying conditions will require hospitalization. Similarly, we have no idea how many people out there have contracted the novel coronavirus and are asymptomatic or which have symptoms too mild to bother getting tested. I think the CDC and WHO's numbers are projections based on overly simplistic models that tend to exaggerate the dangers by several orders of magnitude - do you remember when they were publishing articles about how the world's temperatures would rise 6 degrees and 8 million will die from global warming by 2020? Same difference.

No doubt, overwhelming the hospitals is a serious concern and does greatly affect the mortality rate of the disease. This disease primarily targets the immocompromised, which represents the worst case scenario for the disease and its care. There's a reason why the average age of the people who die from this virus are in their 80s. I just believe that there are ways that we can support and help these at risk people than a full shutdown of our society. Quarantining is almost completely ineffective at even a moderate scale, and social distancing can be done without shutting down all the restaurants, gyms, and grocery stores. In fact, the lack of exercise and nutrition as we can't leave our homes and live off stale crackers will make us more susceptible to the disease.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Alpharius wrote:
The UK betting on "Herd Immunity (eventually)" feels like a bit of a risk - and with 70+ year old people being told to possibly quarantine themselves for up to 4 months?

Yikes.

Herd immunity feels like a theory than a tested hypothesis. For instance, they credit the MMR vaccine for creating a herd immunity that has eradicated the measles - but the MMR vaccine doesn't have a 100% protection rate (I think it is 99% after two vaccinations). Mixed with an unvaccinated population and the fact that the MMR vaccine loses efficiency over time at an uneven rate means that we probably have less than 90%-95% coverage mathematically necessary for herd immunity (probably a lot less). In fact, in recent measles outbreaks, a majority of the cases were in the vaccinated (including an outbreak on a navy ship with 100% vaccination rate).

The best way to eradicate a virus would be a pulse vaccination, in which they vaccinate people all at the same time. This would ensure maximum vaccination efficiency in a controlled population. If they did vaccinate in this manner, I'd have more faith in herd immunity being a thing, but the truth is, we don't actually know the vaccination efficiency of people right now. Don't get me wrong, it makes a huge difference, and competent and measured response to outbreaks also helps. I'm just saying that we don't actually have the numbers for complete herd immunity so making decisions on the assumption that it has worked before might be a bit naive.

me and my wife have come up with a social distancing plan. at weekends we are going to head into the oxfordshire countryside for walks with our daughter. they way I see it is we'll hardly see another soul, we'll get fresh air and exercise, and the benefits of experiencing nature.

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
me and my wife have come up with a social distancing plan. at weekends we are going to head into the oxfordshire countryside for walks with our daughter. they way I see it is we'll hardly see another soul, we'll get fresh air and exercise, and the benefits of experiencing nature.

I live in the Scottish highlands I just open the door.

As to running out of models to paint my back log is massive.

This is not a society ender, but is already a tradegy with worse to come. Good luck to everyone and support your friends , neighbours and family and support the medical staff, as we are getting busier already and don't call unless you have too.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 kodos wrote:
20% of the cases needs hospital treatment, the difference in numbers in different countries for deaths depends mostly on how much places are available and how many people need them at the same time

North Italy has much more ill people than beds available and therefore the death rate is higher

I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number.

from ECDC:

The evidence from analyses of cases to date is that COVID-19 infection causes mild disease (i.e. non-pneumonia or mild pneumonia) in about 80% of cases and most cases recover, 14% develop more severe disease and 6% experience critical illness. Severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions, with these risk groups accounting for the majority of severe disease and fatalities to date. In the event of a disruption of healthcare services, the impact could be very high.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/current-risk-assessment-novel-coronavirus-situation

Driving to a few coworker's houses to get them set up to work remote

Got a minor promotion just before this / now I have some people under me. Fun times

Can I paint my Vraks traitor guard now?

 Stevefamine wrote:
Driving to a few coworker's houses to get them set up to work remote

Got a minor promotion just before this / now I have some people under me. Fun times

Can I paint my Vraks traitor guard now?

I guess.

 kodos wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number.

from ECDC:

The evidence from analyses of cases to date is that COVID-19 infection causes mild disease (i.e. non-pneumonia or mild pneumonia) in about 80% of cases and most cases recover, 14% develop more severe disease and 6% experience critical illness. Severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions, with these risk groups accounting for the majority of severe disease and fatalities to date. In the event of a disruption of healthcare services, the impact could be very high.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/current-risk-assessment-novel-coronavirus-situation

Fair enough, though it does say that severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions - basically that risk does not control for contributing factors like health and age, giving an exaggerated impression of the risk to the average person (creating panic). In practical terms, this means that the actual risk is extremely dependent on certain factors, and how common serious disease is will be dependent on those factors.

For example, Italy has something like 25% of its population over 65, while the US has about 16%. On that statistic alone, it shows that the coronavirus will have a significantly lesser effect on the US than Italy.

I feel like it is really irresponsible of the media and of the WHO to present flat percentages like that without context. It overwhelmingly drives a panic that is not based on a reasonable presentation of the facts.

And half of the intensive care patients in France are below 50.

it is not as simple as "won't be as worse because there are less old people"

 kodos wrote:
And half of the intensive care patients in France are below 50.

it is not as simple as "won't be as worse because there are less old people"

There's other mitigating factors as well. University of Maryland just released a thing saying they studied the climate that the coronavirus propagates in, and found that the places with the outbreaks right now all have similar climates. They found that the virus has an easier time surviving in a 39F environment with humidity between 20 and 80 percent. Though the northern parts of the US are in this band (or will be, as temperatures rise), the southern parts are not. That's not to say there can't be outbreaks in these areas, but that they won't be nearly as bad.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Welp.

Better buy some more models in case I run out of stuff to paint.

I figure I'm good for a couple years worth of quarantine on that front.

 Togusa wrote:
People need to clam their tits. This is no worse than seasonal flu.

I mean, I know that's the hot take down Fox News way, but it's laughably incorrect. Last year 35 million people in the US got the flu, and 35K died. that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. The mortality rate for coronavirus is is, depending on the situation, 3% or so.

That's 30 times worse.

In the US, right now, there are around 4200 confirmed cases. If this was the flu, 4 people would have died. In fact, 74 people have died - nearly 2%. So, 20 times worse than the seasonal flu, right at the onset, here in the US, when we're in as good a shape as we're going to get. it's only going to get worse as this goes on.

So, you're pretty badly wrong.

edit: removed that slur you used from that quote.

I now have an excu-I mean, plan to stay at home and not interact with anyone for several weeks.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Ouze wrote:

 Togusa wrote:
People need to clam their tits. This is no worse than seasonal flu.

I mean, I know that's the hot take down Fox News way, but it's laughably incorrect. Last year 35 million people in the US got the flu, and 35K died. that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. The mortality rate for coronavirus is is, depending on the situation, 3% or so.

That's 30 times worse.

In the US, right now, there are around 4200 confirmed cases. If this was the flu, 4 people would have died. In fact, 74 people have died - nearly 2%. So, 20 times worse than the seasonal flu, right at the onset, here in the US, when we're in as good a shape as we're going to get. it's only going to get worse as this goes on.

So, you're pretty badly wrong.

edit: removed that slur you used from that quote.

Mate there are some things that you shouldn't dignify with a response.

Ouze, I don't normally did this, but I went to Fox News just now and it's wall to wall coronavirus coverage, none of it minimizing it from what I can tell. This matches what I heard on a fivethirtyeight podcast analyzing coverage of it so far. Let's not get this into the weeds unnecessarily... this is really serious, and we should all be treating it as such.

 Ouze wrote:

I mean, I know that's the hot take down Fox News way, but it's laughably incorrect. Last year 35 million people in the US got the flu, and 35K died. that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. The mortality rate for coronavirus is is, depending on the situation, 3% or so.

That's 30 times worse.

The coronavirus has a 0.6% (and dropping) mortality rate in South Korea, and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 2% mortality rate). Even in China, the mortality rate differs considerably based on where. Wuhan has a mortality rate of about (I think) 5% to 7%, while outside of Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 0.7%. And this is all based on the amount of testing done, which is rather insignificant outside of South Korea - which means that when all is said and done, the mortality rate (globally) will probably continue to inch closer and closer to normal flu rates.

 RiTides wrote:
Ouze, I don't normally did this, but I went to Fox News just now and it's wall to wall coronavirus coverage, none of it minimizing it from what I can tell. This matches what I heard on a fivethirtyeight podcast analyzing coverage of it so far. Let's not get this into the weeds unnecessarily... this is really serious, and we should all be treating it as such.

What you just said is definitely nor accurate, certainly over the last few weeks. On the other hand, you also said I can't rebut it here. So, feel free to PM me if anyone wants copious sources of various fox news people doing exactly what I said they have been doing.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Sqorgar wrote:
and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 0.02% mortality rate).

You sure about that math, buddy?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I see you edited your post. I will take that as an agreement that yes, it is at least 20 times worse that the seasonal flu, and we can start dismissing out of hand anyone who makes that comparison.

 Ouze wrote:
You sure about that math, buddy?

It was already corrected before you responded. Even at 2%, you have to factor in that the US is simply not testing people for coronavirus in a sufficient quantity unless they are already exhibiting severe symptoms, so the numbers are biased considerably - even then, it is still less than the quoted 3%.

Edit: The US has tested 8,554, or 26 tests per million people.

It's worse than flu, my hospital doesn't close 2 wards to elective patients , to free up beds for flu patients. Worryingly 1 is already full.

So now we're arguing about whether it's 20 times or 30 times worse than the seasonal flu?

I rest my case.

@ Scorgar: Um, a theory IS a tested hypothesis.

In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.

In the Netherlands, about 50% of those hospitalised with severe symptoms are below 50 years of age. Then again, the average age of actual casualties was as of this morning 79 years old. Some 25 people dead out of ~1400+ confirmed cases there, but numbers are rising rapidly.

In Italy, the death toll is much higher, 1800+ of <24800 confirmed cases this morning, approaching 7,5% - presumably because their healthcare system is overtaxed. That's not counting people who die because they can't get the care they need for other diseases due to said overtaxing, and obviously not counting unreported cases. It does fairly closely match the worldwide numbers though.

That overtaxing, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.
There's fairly simple graphs going around the interwebz that illustrate this.

...

I'm still more worried about catching malaria where I am now. That and being stuck here some 7000 kilometers from my wife and kids while this thing runs its course.

Edit: On a lighter note, yesterday the Dutch government mandated closure of all horeca (restaurants, pubs, snackbars etc). So naturally, within half an hour there were massive lines at coffeeshops as those with a taste for the stuff wanted to get their supply of marihuana for the duration of the emergency . Good to see people have their priorities straight.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Ouze wrote:

I mean, I know that's the hot take down Fox News way, but it's laughably incorrect. Last year 35 million people in the US got the flu, and 35K died. that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. The mortality rate for coronavirus is is, depending on the situation, 3% or so.

That's 30 times worse.

The coronavirus has a 0.6% (and dropping) mortality rate in South Korea, and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 2% mortality rate). Even in China, the mortality rate differs considerably based on where. Wuhan has a mortality rate of about (I think) 5% to 7%, while outside of Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 0.7%. And this is all based on the amount of testing done, which is rather insignificant outside of South Korea - which means that when all is said and done, the mortality rate (globally) will probably continue to inch closer and closer to normal flu rates.

I so love the people who say there is hundred of thousands of unknown cases but want to use the same mortality rates, talk about intellectual dishonesty. I don't know what the "final numbers" will be but I do know we don't know near enough accurately at this point and I'd trus the numbers out of SK alot more than Id trust the numbers from China, just have to figure out what the variables are hidden in the numbers.

Bran Dawri wrote:
So naturally, within half an hour there were massive lines at coffeeshops as those with a taste for the stuff wanted to get their supply of marihuana for the duration of the emergency . Good to see people have their priorities straight.

Illinois closed bars, restaurants, etc - and the first question I heard a lot was "what about the dispensaries?"

Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.

London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask

 Dr Coconut wrote:

Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.

London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask

The mask isn't pointless. The mask he has will, 100%, prevent aerosol transmission.

I'm going to work in the office tomorrow, and work from home for the rest of the week, probably.