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 Scrabb wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense.

Why?

Doesn't the US have tons of international air traffic? Aren't our tourists everywhere? I don't get how the US of all places could be timelapsed behind the rest of the world. I seem to remember the US lagging behind other countries in testing Feb/ first half of March, but surely we haven't been affected later?

My opinion is US got the virus from multiple sources by, at the very latest, early January. I really want to know what everyone else does.

It does, but the main vector of infection from China spread in Washington and California. Those states took quick action once the spread was noted and managed to clamp down on the more horrible peaking you see in NY. The NY strain was mostly traced back to the spread from Italy and in both cases seems to have started spreading earlier than noticed. This is why it managed to get so bad in part, besides a lack of testing it was also spreading earlier than anticipated with a clamp down.

Its just that slowdown between California and Washington starting to peak in regards to China and then several weeks later NY in regards to Italy. So in that sense the US is 'behind' Europe in their larger peak coming out of NY. A lot more Europeans got infected in northern Italy so it spread faster once they travelled back, but the US got it subsequently from Europeans and Americans travelling back to the US, through NY.

Italy got completely blindsided by how much it had already spread around the north. A lot of the death toll is a consequence of that, while other countries and NY had a bit more of an advanced warning thanks to how Italy was unfolding.

Voss wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense. But the US hotspot of NY seems no less intense in deaths when you think about the fact that its only 8 mil people and they get as many deaths as entire European countries with larger populations per day. If its spreading as it did in the EU it could get much worse for the US, as it did in the EU, but that all really depends.

Italy got it spreading before it was really noticed and from there to the EU and NY. But since then measures have been put in place which means that NY might bear the brunt of the US.

Unfortunately it doesn't look that way. Thanks to the way the states work, responses varied wildly- California shut down earlier than New York, and so is doing better. Some central states refused to institute any sort of lockdown at all. Ohio locked up tight way early, so is getting off fairly light so far (but that may be changing, they've hit 5000+ cases, but that's a third of some of the neighboring states), but Philadelphia, Detroit and New Orleans are starting to show growth that suggests the next major hot spots. And unfortunately this is a pattern that can repeat over and over again in different areas and different (or the same) cities. And once restrictions start relaxing, it only takes a few cases to start a new fire, or restart the cycle in a city like NYC or LA.

At this point its already everywhere- the lightest hit states are Wyoming and Alaska, and they've already got 200+ cases each. It may end up spreading really fast in some of the central states, despite a relative lack of big cities, because they resisted doing any sort of lockdowns at all, thinking they were safe for being rural and people's rights and whatever.

Yes, hence the ifs and maybes. I'm not sure why they keep running the numbers down on death tolls when there is still a testing gap and a significant difference in lock down approach with normal flights across the US. It might never get as bad per capita as some European countries, but that is very dependent on the actions that reluctant states will take in the future.

@Disciple:

So when we say behind are we talking about time until peak cases then?

And America is further from that then Italy because Italy was basically the worst hit and it can't get much worse for them.

Is that sort of what you're communicating?

 Scrabb wrote:
@Disciple:

So when we say behind are we talking about time until peak cases then?

And America is further from that then Italy because Italy was basically the worst hit and it can't get much worse for them.

Is that sort of what you're communicating?

Yes, it boils down to build up and peak order, China>Italy>Western Europe>NY and most other states. Italy has hit the peak about last week and is seeing hospitals using less beds again. Western Europe has seen this point in the past few days from what Ive seen in the reporting of numbers. The NY area is expected to peak the upcoming week, so deaths might still shoot up.

That is why you can't easily make a one on one comparison right now, circumstances, preparedness and point in time aren't equal.

Two things NY has going against it is the density and reliance of public transportation. With so many people in one spot, and needing to take the subways/busses to get anywhere, something that spreads like the Corona is just going to get everywhere. It’s just a bad scene.

As someone was mentioning before, we really will not be able to make a call on the US peaking until the end of April, because of Easter. We may have a 'double peak' where the 'natural' one occurs then we get a secondary due to large numbers of people violating social distancing orders to attend Easter services in densely seated, enclosed structures.

The 'US' as a whole won't peak anyway. Different cities and areas will peak at different times regardless of Easter.

LA is already (roughly) at peak, NYC looks to be getting there, but other cities haven't even started skyrocketing yet, and it looks like they will. Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans and Philadelphia are all on slightly different stages, and aren't going to move in tandem with LA, NYC or Washington state.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
As someone was mentioning before, we really will not be able to make a call on the US peaking until the end of April, because of Easter. We may have a 'double peak' where the 'natural' one occurs then we get a secondary due to large numbers of people violating social distancing orders to attend Easter services in densely seated, enclosed structures.

USA might not be the only one.

UK saw a spike in people socialising over Mothersday even though it was technically just before full lockdown it was still when Government were telling people not to socialise and for restaurants to be closing etc... It sadly wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people still go out this Easter in the UK even though we are still on full lockdown. Though I'd wager the majority won't, but a significant minority will.


If the USA has some states allowing or even encouraging gatherings then I'd well expect a secondary spike to happen in a few weeks as a direct result. I can see it happening for other countries too; sadly so many people get locked into an attitude that certain things happen at certain times and its very hard to turn them from that viewpoint. Of course at times the will and desire to carry on as if nothing is happening can be a good thing. In war times, eg WWII it was part of the contributing attitude that allows cities to function even whilst under the threat of being bombed. However at a time when direct communal action is the very cause of the core problem (infection spreading); it becomes a negative trait.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Voss wrote:
The 'US' as a whole won't peak anyway. Different cities and areas will peak at different times regardless of Easter.

That's a very true point. It's hard when you're not part of the USA to really appreciate its size and scale at times like this. Especially when most of the general stats and talk we get tends to speak of the USA as a whole. Then again something like easter could spark multiple spikes at the same time across multiple states. I suspect at the end we might be able to see some general spikes and falls from the combined stats of the USA, however yes it should be that there will be quite marked variation state to state.

A big part of what ‘makes America great’ is also why this is going to continue to be a mess here...

Voss wrote:
The 'US' as a whole won't peak anyway. Different cities and areas will peak at different times regardless of Easter.

I didn't think of that, really good point.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Alpharius wrote:
A big part of what ‘makes America great’ is also why this is going to continue to be a mess here...

What -actually- makes the US great is a certain optimism and 'can-do' attitude underlining our culture. Unfortunately that works against us here.

Here in my state (Michigan) there is a steadily growing movement on Facebook that is claiming the state government is evil and trying to take all the citizens' freedoms like they are "Jews in WW2 Germany". While I think some of the measures are overly draconian, people are steadily refusing to obey any of the mitigation procedures, ignoring "those stupid masks" and the like. I've heard it from other states, too. Things are going from blaming our governmental leaders for not doing enough, to claims now that they are trying to turn us into prisoners.

I have no doubt that Easter services tomorrow are definitely going to exacerbate the situation, as people are claiming that "the right to peacibly assemble" and the Freedom of Religion of our Constitution overrules social distancing measures.

It's just saddening and more than a bit discouraging when being super vigilant can be overturned by a ton of idiots who either distrust everything or just don't care. I would imagine people who went through the 1918 Pandemic would be severely unimpressed with what's going on compared to what they had to give up to beat the Flu virus then.

 Scrabb wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Isn't the USA a bit behind many EU countries in the stage its at? Ergo its at an earlier stage in the curve where things don't look as bad, but where there is (sadly) likely far worse to come. Meanwhile countries like Italy are starting to hit a very slow turning point.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

EU started sooner and the US got less surprised in that sense.

Why?

Doesn't the US have tons of international air traffic? Aren't our tourists everywhere? I don't get how the US of all places could be timelapsed behind the rest of the world. I seem to remember the US lagging behind other countries in testing Feb/ first half of March, but surely we haven't been affected later?

My opinion is US got the virus from multiple sources by, at the very latest, early January. I really want to know what everyone else does.

There's a very large Italian-American population in New York City, and many of them retain very close ties with family in 'the old country'.

May not be the whole explanation, but I'd bet it's a strong start.

EDIT: As far as the post-Easter spike goes, it will START two weeks later - so on April 26th. But remember those people will have been out shopping and what-not, circulating the virus and infecting other people. I'd expect the peak to hit two to three weeks later still as geometric progression has it's way with the American population. So early to mid May... give or take.

New York has a lot of strong ties with...just about everywhere, put particularly with Europe, and the Pacific Northwest has a lot of strong ties with a lot of places in Asia.

 Alpharius wrote:
New York has a lot of strong ties with...just about everywhere, put particularly with Europe, and the Pacific Northwest has a lot of strong ties with a lot of places in Asia.

That's true, but it's the Italian connection that is important here.

A tiny glimmer of sanity and intelligence on the viral front coming from an unexpected place.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492346-kentucky-governor-announces-state-will-record-license-plate-information

 Matt Swain wrote:
A tiny glimmer of sanity and intelligence on the viral front coming from an unexpected place.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492346-kentucky-governor-announces-state-will-record-license-plate-information

Very unexpected indeed, take it from someone who lives there. Rarely is Kentucky the one taking the side of sanity when it comes to religious matters.

 AegisGrimm wrote:
Here in my state (Michigan) there is a steadily growing movement on Facebook that is claiming the state government is evil and trying to take all the citizens' freedoms like they are "Jews in WW2 Germany". While I think some of the measures are overly draconian, people are steadily refusing to obey any of the mitigation procedures, ignoring "those stupid masks" and the like. I've heard it from other states, too. Things are going from blaming our governmental leaders for not doing enough, to claims now that they are trying to turn us into prisoners.

I have no doubt that Easter services tomorrow are definitely going to exacerbate the situation, as people are claiming that "the right to peacibly assemble" and the Freedom of Religion of our Constitution overrules social distancing measures.

They need a reminder that those rights stop when they run into other people's rights to not die.

This weekend needed a bigger PR campaign. 'How many people did you murder today? Should have stayed home instead' expresses it best.

Gadzilla666 wrote:

 Matt Swain wrote:
A tiny glimmer of sanity and intelligence on the viral front coming from an unexpected place.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492346-kentucky-governor-announces-state-will-record-license-plate-information

Very unexpected indeed, take it from someone who lives there. Rarely is Kentucky the one taking the side of sanity when it comes to religious matters.

Exalted.

On another front, a pork processing plant has become the 4th leading hotspot for corona in the US, with many workers infected. I believe this is not as dire as it sounds as if pork is cooked correctly the virus will surely be killed. I am not certain how corona will survive freezing. Anyone here have the info on that?

https://ktvo.com/news/local/tyson-foods-suspends-iowa-pork-plant-after-virus-outbreak-04-07-2020

My church has been doing Facebook Live services for the past few weeks with plenty of the regulars tuned in, so there's no need for people to actually get together right now, Easter or not. Unfortunately some other pastors across America are stubborn. God may protect us, but he still wants us to use our heads!

And I've been seeing some of the alarmist posts about taking away our freedoms too. While some good points have been raised, I think that this is a special situation where suspending a few things is for the greater good [/tau]. I don't actually think the government is going to continue to enact these measures once the threat of the virus has gone away. Maybe I'm woefully naive in thinking this, but...eh.

 Matt Swain wrote:
A tiny glimmer of sanity and intelligence on the viral front coming from an unexpected place.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492346-kentucky-governor-announces-state-will-record-license-plate-information

Yeah, but that is very very very very illegal.

Just because it would be for the best for everybody to stay home doesn't mean you can violate 2 Constitutional rights as well as a host of settled case law surrounding those rights. Thats far worse than any harm spreading the virus could do.

1) You can't force quarantine on people who haven't tested positive. That violates the Sixth amendment. Quarantine legally requires Due Process be given. IE: The person has to have been tested positive for a disease AND then have a court order to remain in custody.

2) Saying that you can't meet for religious services, even temporarily, clearly violates the 1st amendment. You are prohibiting the free exercise of religion, as well as the right to peaceably assemble.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ZergSmasher wrote:

And I've been seeing some of the alarmist posts about taking away our freedoms too. While some good points have been raised, I think that this is a special situation where suspending a few things is for the greater good [/tau]. I don't actually think the government is going to continue to enact these measures once the threat of the virus has gone away. Maybe I'm woefully naive in thinking this, but...eh.

This would set a precedent that the government can just "declare an emergency" and then proceed to ignore any rights they choose. That is a terrible idea. Its the line of thinking that led to the Japanese Internment Camps in WW2.

Coronavirus is definitely not serious enough that we can excuse the ignoring of basic rights. Having advice that we should shelter in place and avoid unnecessary exposure is fine. But Enforcing that advice is morally unacceptable.

Well actually reading the article it just says that the state will send people a letter.

And since it's been established in law there's no expectation of privacy in a public setting I don't see how gathering the license plate info is an issue either.

But hey, I guess a country that's so jacked on hyper-individualism that telling folks on a sinking ship to get to the lifeboats is "destroying freedom" is surely a country that's going to do well in a pandemic.

It's merely applying the same limitations on religious gatherings as have been implemented on other gatherings. If sporting events, concerts, and the like are dangerous in the current situation then so are religious events. If you start making exceptions in one case people will start asking for them in others.

 Grey Templar wrote:
[quote=Matt Swain 784835 10769114
Yeah, but that is very very very very illegal.

Just because it would be for the best for everybody to stay home doesn't mean you can violate 2 Constitutional rights as well as a host of settled case law surrounding those rights. Thats far worse than any harm spreading the virus could do.

1) You can't force quarantine on people who haven't tested positive. That violates the Sixth amendment. Quarantine legally requires Due Process be given. IE: The person has to have been tested positive for a disease AND then have a court order to remain in custody.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ZergSmasher wrote:

And I've been seeing some of the alarmist posts about taking away our freedoms too. While some good points have been raised, I think that this is a special situation where suspending a few things is for the greater good [/tau]. I don't actually think the government is going to continue to enact these measures once the threat of the virus has gone away. Maybe I'm woefully naive in thinking this, but...eh.

This would set a precedent that the government can just "declare an emergency" and then proceed to ignore any rights they choose. That is a terrible idea. Its the line of thinking that led to the Japanese Internment Camps in WW2.

Coronavirus is definitely not serious enough that we can excuse the ignoring of basic rights. Having advice that we should shelter in place and avoid unnecessary exposure is fine. But Enforcing that advice is morally unacceptable.

You're barking up the wrong tree trying to point out those things in here mate. People want their illusion of safety too much.

 Grey Templar wrote:

 Matt Swain wrote:
A tiny glimmer of sanity and intelligence on the viral front coming from an unexpected place.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492346-kentucky-governor-announces-state-will-record-license-plate-information

Yeah, but that is very very very very illegal.

Just because it would be for the best for everybody to stay home doesn't mean you can violate 2 Constitutional rights as well as a host of settled case law surrounding those rights. Thats far worse than any harm spreading the virus could do.

1) You can't force quarantine on people who haven't tested positive. That violates the Sixth amendment. Quarantine legally requires Due Process be given. IE: The person has to have been tested positive for a disease AND then have a court order to remain in custody.

2) Saying that you can't meet for religious services, even temporarily, clearly violates the 1st amendment. You are prohibiting the free exercise of religion, as well as the right to peaceably assemble.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ZergSmasher wrote:

And I've been seeing some of the alarmist posts about taking away our freedoms too. While some good points have been raised, I think that this is a special situation where suspending a few things is for the greater good [/tau]. I don't actually think the government is going to continue to enact these measures once the threat of the virus has gone away. Maybe I'm woefully naive in thinking this, but...eh.

This would set a precedent that the government can just "declare an emergency" and then proceed to ignore any rights they choose. That is a terrible idea. Its the line of thinking that led to the Japanese Internment Camps in WW2.

Coronavirus is definitely not serious enough that we can excuse the ignoring of basic rights. Having advice that we should shelter in place and avoid unnecessary exposure is fine. But Enforcing that advice is morally unacceptable.

Seriously? We had a little things called 9-11 in which ~3,000 americans were killed and we got the patriot act, FISA courts, no knock warrants, unlimited surveillance wiretaps, trials with secret evidence the defense was not allowed to see, detention without trial, or legal council, torture, rendition to foreign countries for torture, etc. and it's still going on.

Within a couple days the covid pandemic will kill 10x more americans than 9-11 did. If temporarily violating the rights of church goers to slow it's spread helps, then lets do it. It's not like these people are being held indefinitely without charges, legal council, family contact, etc. it's not like they're being waterboarded or subject to other forms of torture. They're being told they can't go to church for a few months maybe. They think that violates their rights? Waah waah. They mostly want to force rape victims to go thru with a forced pregnancy. I don't give a if they can't go to church for a few months. Waah waah.

Let's face it, the post 911 patriot act and other acts pretty much rendered the constitution moot anyway. We're dealing with something that probably going to kill at least 20x more americans than 911 did. Close the churches.

via Wash. Post.

Bodes well.

Glad the UK is having a normal and sane response to








Telegraph editors having a good easter so far then it seems.




I see we're being our usual selves and approving of the Govt. handling whilst simultaneously believing they're not doing enough testing

Not sure that it's a great claim/success story that 4.5 million or so people believe that 5g relates in anyway at all to the virus though.

"Asked by a journalist about the level of testing for the coronavirus across the US, the president answered: “This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it."

Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Trump doesn't even know difference between virus and bacteria. And clearly doesn't even ask experts on it.

Dunno what's scary. That trump doesn't know or that he basically admits virus is more intelligent than himself...

In fairness I think some of the "government doing things right" viewpoint links to the whole "well they aren't perfect but trying to oust one government for another at this time would only spell utter confusion and doom".

 Grey Templar wrote:

2) Saying that you can't meet for religious services, even temporarily, clearly violates the 1st amendment. You are prohibiting the free exercise of religion, as well as the right to peaceably assemble.

It doesn't have to violate the free exercise of religion, because even religion is limited in its free exercise depending on what the religion entails. Where the interest of the state clashes with religion, the state takes precedence, such as with polygamy.

Temporarily suspending services in the public interest would probably hold up at the SC, because it is not forbidding the practice of said religion, just the assembly of the congregation for a period of time. Meanwhile services can easily continue in a world that has radio, tv and the internet.

The freedom of assembly is also limited by certain factors where the state trumps personal freedom, such as an immediate threat to public safety, which you could possibly argue pretty well in front of the SC for. As these people might get infected at a church service, which is not essential (being food and medication to survive) and then infect people at essential services such as supermarkets and pharmacies. It just cannot unfairly single out church services, but if everything gets suspended, they are not being unfairly targeted.

Yes the first amendment protects quite a bit, but if push comes to shove the state would probably win in the SC based on precedence in similar cases due to the exceptional circumstances of a pandemic.

re that question above (the sane one)
To my understanding corona viruses as a class survive being frozen quite well. Its also, I believe, the standard method for preserving active virus in a lab setting.

Understanding projections is kind of hard. They're not meant to be accurate, they're meant to influence behavior.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This site has helped me get some perspective. They are using the same models used by the White House.

Originally, the projections were that 1-2% of the population would die, then it was 1 - 2 mil, then it was 900k, now it's down to around 60k.

When these models are constructed, they make assumptions about the nature of the virus, the size of the population, medical resources available, and other factors that are known at the time. They adjust them as other factors come into play - changes to any of the previous factors, identification of new therapeutic regimens, implementation of policy to prevent spread, etc.

A few things occur to me:

- The general public does not understand where these numbers come from or their significance. This is public health policy data, all meaning depends on trends and context. The part most people don't get: there is no right or wrong, there's just the projections and how they influence other policies.

- It's very hard to explain the significance of projections. There's moral / social / political inferences that are polluting our interpretation of the data, which makes it hard to have a common understanding of the real risk. What I think Western countries have been doing, and I'm grateful for, is trying to scare the gak out of the public so everyone stays at home. This is probably the best thing that could have been done, given other factors.

- We haven't had a major health scare in the US / EU for a while, these used to be much more frequent. No one is used to having their lives disrupted, the shock seems to be magnifying the reaction. This leads to a lot of misinformation about what's happening, people live in information bubbles and try to find data that agrees with their biases. They want someone or something to blame for this disruption and they're willing to take a lot on faith.

- Public opinion seems to be wildly in favor of protecting all life instead of the economy. There doesn't appear to be a recognition of the long term consequences of keeping the economy shut down, which also involves mortality. The comparative metrics for economic instability aren't available to the public (nor should they be.) A lot of the people chiming in on what should be the next steps are very short sighted, and that's kind of dangerous.

- We live in an information economy, there's an expectation that data will be available in real time or there's a defect. This extends all the way down the food chain to personal testing for the virus. There's a few ways in which this could be called overly optimistic thinking, the things we do have personal tests for kill more people each year than the virus ever will. They took years to make, it's unrealistic to expect they will suddenly appear overnight.

From everything I've gathered, the total number of deaths attributable to the virus is less than what we could have expected from other causes over the same time period (at least in the US.) It's debatable and not meant to sound callous.

But my prescription for the virus would be better thinking. This is an information emergency as much as it is a public health emergency. Being able to think critically about our options will be more important as time goes on, especially if we're plunging into a recession. There will be a lot of voices calling for a lot of remedies, some of which will lead to better days and some of which will create unnecessary suffering and hardship. Knowing how to sort one from the other will be the most important skill to have.

 techsoldaten wrote:


- Public opinion seems to be wildly in favor of protecting all life instead of the economy. There doesn't appear to be a recognition of the long term consequences of keeping the economy shut down, which also involves mortality. The comparative metrics for economic instability aren't available to the public (nor should they be.) A lot of the people chiming in on what should be the next steps are very short sighted, and that's kind of dangerous.

Then by all means, do the math, or find a source. Essential jobs are not shut down, many industries are working from home or just trudging along- so if this economic impact is so dire, what percentage of our economy do we need to keep shut down for a few months to stop the spread of this thing? What percentage of our economy is shut down right now? For that matter, what's unemployment, which is essentially what shutdown does, do to life expectancy? And another factor to consider- how much does each Coronavirus victim's treatment cost? Not even the just the deaths, the ones who are hospitalized for a week and put on ventilators.

Once you've got the numbers of probable deaths from unemployment, compare it to the death toll of an unmitigated Corona virus outbreak. This should give you a raw life comparison, form a very utilitarian mindset.

Adjust for cost of treatment of victims.

Then, finally, calculate the average age of virus victims. Compare with average age of retirement, and average earnings. That'll give you a rough estimate of the economic value of a worker. If you can find something about how much they contribute to GDP or another of the economic factors, all the better. Then you can tell us what this mysterious and feared economic impact is, and why it is more important than the deaths of our friends and family.

The Great Depression was the last time our economy was ruined- and it increased life expectancy. https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy