Coronavirus

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**Overread**

Gitzbitah wrote:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Analysis of the data is mixed. Germany relaxed restrictions 2 weeks ago ( https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-relaxes-virus-rules-fallback-clause-70535448 ), so there should be the initial surge of new cases happening- but daily new cases still looks relatively low (1155, as opposed to their peak of 6933). It will be very interesting to see if this indicates a true increase in the curve, or if it is just one of the fluctuations that happen in the graph historically.

Weirdly though, the daily death total spiked quite high- 282, which is pretty close to their darkest days 333. I don't understand why that would be the case.

I'm not trying to support or oppose the Germany claim, but I'm hoping their situation will help us know what to expect as the USA opens up.

Death rates going up is likely because as you relax the lockdown more of the highly vulnerable become at risk once again. Some will not maintain lockdowns and will relax their own isolation just like younger/not at risk groups will. Plus you'll get more people wanting to visit parents and relatives. Basically a fresh wave of vulnerable people becomes exposed which sends the death rate up; even if the overall infection rate isn't increasing very rapidly.

**Ouze**

Grey Templar wrote:
Azreal13 wrote:
That still means that statistically 200 people will be in charge of a vehicle that probably shouldn't be yet.

True, but there are plenty of people who have passed driving tests who definitely shouldn't be on the road. Be it because they're irresponsible teens or old people with failing mind and body.

For sure. My mother in law, when she was alive, comes to mind. She drove for at least 10 years more than she should have.

**Bran Dawri**

Could just be a one-time spike. Alternatively, death rate will trail behind infection rate at any given time.

**queen_annes_revenge**

Exactly. thats why you need to give it a little time to see where the stats go. provided the healthcare system of said country isnt overwhelmed, that shouldn't really be an issue.

**gorgon**

Prestor Jon wrote:
I agree with everything you said.

I think two other important components to the problem are the lack of testing and lack of information. It’s perfectly rational to want to return to normal behaviors if you feel normal. We’ve been self quarantining for a month and a half now and if you feel healthy at this point you probably believe you don’t aren’t infected so why not go out? There isn’t testing available for asymptomatic people so people that honestly believe they are healthy can’t be sure whether or not they’re putting others at risk. It’s crazy that we’re opening back up with no widespread testing. What is different from when the lockdown started? Why is it safe now if it wasn’t then? And if we can’t safely end the lockdown without testing and we don’t know when we’ll have widespread testing how can we keep everyone locked down indefinitely?

We don’t seem to have a comprehensive plan. Coupled with that we don’t have good information. We can’t tell who has it or has had it unless they’re actively sick. We’re not sure what treatments are effective, how many strains of the virus are out there or if people can get infected more than once. Some research has been done on some states in regards to how widespread the virus has been. We know there’s been more cases than just the confirmed ones but we’ll never get an accurate count. That ties back into not knowing if you are infected or have been infected if you were asymptomatic. It’s a very confusing and anxious situation.

I agree that moving forward with no real information seems...crazy. Like I've said, my heart tells me we'll navigate this thing, but my brain just keeps screaming that we're walking into a buzzsaw.

My state (PA) is at least planning to hire citizens to do contact tracing. I dunno if it's enough people to make a real difference, and my understanding is that work requires some real training. But it's something. And the name -- Commonwealth Civilian Coronavirus Corps, or CCCC -- obviously plays on the Depression-era CCC. Which my grandfather was a part of.

https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/pennsylvania-set-to-hire-civilians-to-ramp-up-coronavirus-contact-tracing/

We'll see how implementation goes.

**DominayTrix**

NinthMusketeer wrote:
AegisGrimm wrote:
We are so monumentally, horrendously screwed by stupidity here in the US. Seriously, I already had a somewhat low opinion of my fellow human beings, but I am even revising that previous thought.

I am a work tool and appliance delivery driver who has just got back to work after the shelter in place orders have been lifted partially, and everyone slammed back out into the public like nothing has even changed.

It might as well be May of 2019.

In the past three days of deliveries, I have been met by exactly ONE maintenance guy out of at least 30 properties all across my state who wore a mask, and he only remembered it because he saw me wearing mine. None of my shop wears even one piece of PPE, and they think that that masks are "stupid and pointless". Today they were all eating from a single communal pizza for lunch.

I have actually been scoffed and eye-rolled at by customers for wearing a mask, and even given unsolicited advise about how all of this is a hoax and barely anyone is REALLY getting sick. One guy said that yeah, he used to wear a mask, but it was too much of a pain to talk in, so he said in his words "Eff it, I'll either die or I won't". One of the guys has been in our shop every day to buy materials with no mask or anything, and is from an apartment complex maybe 1/8 of a mile away that he openly states has several confirmed resident cases.

Some of the properties I deliver to are even majority-senior housing, and it's like nothing is going on!

My mom and dad live next door to my wife and kids and I, and we had been sheltering in place together. Unfortunately, I have had to go back to quarantining my family from them, because Mom is going through cancer treatments and so is immune-comprimised. I figure I am so exposed at work that there is no reason to take the chance.

Sorry if it sounds like I am venting, but hey at least it's relevant and non-political!
Wow, how different things are by state. Here in San Diego it is very much the opposite. Mask requirement started in May, but I would say 80% of people (and all workers) were already wearing masks anyways. People are going out of their way to maintain distance, barely any traffic on the roads, pretty much completely inverted.

Even within the state itself things vary massively. Orange County has done a whopping 40k tests total and the only testing I can find that doesn't require a referral is literally Sean Penn's non-profit. San Diego county has cleared roughly 65k so roughly 50% more despite a 4% population difference. LA county is offering free testing and can clear a whopping 18k tests a day,

**Laughing Man**

Prestor Jon wrote:
Azreal13 wrote:
That still means that statistically 200 people will be in charge of a vehicle that probably shouldn't be yet.

But frankly its probably less scary than it appears from a UK perspective where our population density and congested road network, as well as our propensity for manual transmission cars, makes the thought of allowing drivers with only half a licence (you have both a theoretical and practical exam to pass over here, not sure if that's mirrored) out on their own (not to mention eligible to travel the motorway/interstate network,) is terrifying.

True. It also would t surprise me if the need to clear the backlog and issue tens of thousands of teens their DL which is typically the only govt issues photo ID people have or carry is more of an impetus than letting teens drive. Few people are driving anywhere these days.

If all they need is ID, non-drivers licenses exist, and are valid anywhere a driver's license is.

**Grey Templar**

Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

Hardly surprising as getting a vaccine for any coronavirus ranges from difficult to impossible.

But what happens is what probably happened with all of the past viruses that now make up the pool of generic cold and flu viruses. They burn out and become a background disease after they've eliminated all of the individuals who are vulnerable to it. It'll kill a good amount of people, but it will end as quick as it came.

Even if a vaccine can be made, it will probably happen long after the virus has worked its way through the entire population.

**queen_annes_revenge**

Grey Templar wrote:
Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

Hardly surprising as getting a vaccine for any coronavirus ranges from difficult to impossible.

But what happens is what probably happened with all of the past viruses that now make up the pool of generic cold and flu viruses. They burn out and become a background disease after they've eliminated all of the individuals who are vulnerable to it. It'll kill a good amount of people, but it will end as quick as it came.

Even if a vaccine can be made, it will probably happen long after the virus has worked its way through the entire population.

Yup. its not a nice thought, but I think that what you say is basically inevitable, sooner or later. People talking like we will somehow get rid of the virus, or eliminate it, especially those using it as a way to try and promote longer and more draconian lockdowns, are just naive in my opinion. It isnt going away. shield the vulnerable as best as possible, thats all we can do.

**Grey Templar**

People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

**Laughing Man**

Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

There's vaccines for the flu. The problem is they only confer short term immunity, and there's about a hundred different strains that rotate through every year. Since we can't immunize against them all, we operate on a best guess basis, which is why you can still get the flu after getting your yearly jab.

**tneva82**

Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

**Future War Cultist**

tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

First, how in the feth did you get anti vac from that?

And second, where’s your source for your claims on Germany? I’m going to keep asking until you post it.

**Prestor Jon**

Laughing Man wrote:
Prestor Jon wrote:
Azreal13 wrote:
That still means that statistically 200 people will be in charge of a vehicle that probably shouldn't be yet.

But frankly its probably less scary than it appears from a UK perspective where our population density and congested road network, as well as our propensity for manual transmission cars, makes the thought of allowing drivers with only half a licence (you have both a theoretical and practical exam to pass over here, not sure if that's mirrored) out on their own (not to mention eligible to travel the motorway/interstate network,) is terrifying.

True. It also would t surprise me if the need to clear the backlog and issue tens of thousands of teens their DL which is typically the only govt issues photo ID people have or carry is more of an impetus than letting teens drive. Few people are driving anywhere these days.

If all they need is ID, non-drivers licenses exist, and are valid anywhere a driver's license is.

True but they'd still have the 20k backlog for DLs that they'd have to clear later. This way it's 2 birds 1 stone.

**Stevefamine**

Musk is on Rogan round 2 today - curious if he talks about it

**Prestor Jon**

gorgon wrote:
Prestor Jon wrote:
I agree with everything you said.

I think two other important components to the problem are the lack of testing and lack of information. It’s perfectly rational to want to return to normal behaviors if you feel normal. We’ve been self quarantining for a month and a half now and if you feel healthy at this point you probably believe you don’t aren’t infected so why not go out? There isn’t testing available for asymptomatic people so people that honestly believe they are healthy can’t be sure whether or not they’re putting others at risk. It’s crazy that we’re opening back up with no widespread testing. What is different from when the lockdown started? Why is it safe now if it wasn’t then? And if we can’t safely end the lockdown without testing and we don’t know when we’ll have widespread testing how can we keep everyone locked down indefinitely?

We don’t seem to have a comprehensive plan. Coupled with that we don’t have good information. We can’t tell who has it or has had it unless they’re actively sick. We’re not sure what treatments are effective, how many strains of the virus are out there or if people can get infected more than once. Some research has been done on some states in regards to how widespread the virus has been. We know there’s been more cases than just the confirmed ones but we’ll never get an accurate count. That ties back into not knowing if you are infected or have been infected if you were asymptomatic. It’s a very confusing and anxious situation.

I agree that moving forward with no real information seems...crazy. Like I've said, my heart tells me we'll navigate this thing, but my brain just keeps screaming that we're walking into a buzzsaw.

My state (PA) is at least planning to hire citizens to do contact tracing. I dunno if it's enough people to make a real difference, and my understanding is that work requires some real training. But it's something. And the name -- Commonwealth Civilian Coronavirus Corps, or CCCC -- obviously plays on the Depression-era CCC. Which my grandfather was a part of.

https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/pennsylvania-set-to-hire-civilians-to-ramp-up-coronavirus-contact-tracing/

We'll see how implementation goes.

We're trying to expand and improve contact tracing here in NC too but testing is still a problem. The test is just a nasal swab witch isn't a big deal but the swabs have to be sent to a lab for testing. Typically the turnaround was a couple days because tests were sent to third party labs but they were able to send them to the local UNC hospital lab for testing that cut the tiime down to 1 day. However, as testing increased the UNC lab got swamped so they had to send the backlog out to third party labs so testing results became a 3 day turnaround. So with testing only available for people who have symptoms and needing 3 days to confirm infection most people who are sick and don't need hospitalization only have to stay home for about 10 days. The downside to contact tracing is that self quarrantining is still voluntary. Nobody is keeping infected people under surveillance or punishing them for breaking isolation. Infected people are told to stay home but as of right now if they have compelling reasons like work to leave their home there's nothing in place to keep them from going out or punishing them if they do.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

And in the US tens of thousands of people (averaging around 40k) a year die from the flu even with flu shots being free and easily accessible. The vaccines don't eliminate the danger we just accept the consequences of flue season and keep society operating normally.

**Not Online!!!**

Future War Cultist wrote:
tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

First, how in the feth did you get anti vac from that?

And second, where’s your source for your claims on Germany? I’m going to keep asking until you post it.

I mean i have seen hegel, i have seen other philosophers, but the mental gymnastics from this i agree is worth olympia gold.

**Laughing Man**

Prestor Jon wrote:
And in the US tens of thousands of people (averaging around 40k) a year die from the flu even with flu shots being free and easily accessible. The vaccines don't eliminate the danger we just accept the consequences of flue season and keep society operating normally.

And that's because there's over a hundred flu strains (essentially all of which we have vaccines for), not all of which are vaccinated against every year. Since the vaccines only allow temporary immunity to the flu, and they can't reasonably vaccinate against all of them, we get a vaccine against the CDC's best guess of what will be circulating that year. Sometimes they get it wrong, and often people don't get their shots, so people still get the flu, and some of them die.

**BrookM**

Hey folks, if we could kindly pump the brakes a bit and stop with accusing one another of things, that would be great.

**queen_annes_revenge**

tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

no way.. This is my favourite post on this page. Flu vaccines are made on a best guess strategy, on which strains are going to be most prominent that season. As has already been mentioned. Its a complete guessing game. Which is what a vaccine for cv19, if one is even possible, will likely take the form of.

**Laughing Man**

queen_annes_revenge wrote:
tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

no way.. This is my favourite post on this page. Flu vaccines are made on a best guess strategy, on which strains are going to be most prominent that season. As has already been mentioned. Its a complete guessing game. Which is what a vaccine for cv19, if one is even possible, will likely take the form of.

No, it won't. There aren't terribly many strains of COVID-19, one of them is extremely dominant, and it remains to be seen if a vaccine can be effective against more than one of them. Flu vaccines are ineffective specifically because they need to be tailored to exactly one strain's shell. This isn't the case for all diseases.

**queen_annes_revenge**

True. I guess it remains to be seen if they could make something for the few strains of cv. I thought that coronavirus ability to mutate was what effectively stopped vaccines being made.

**Prestor Jon**

Laughing Man wrote:
Prestor Jon wrote:
And in the US tens of thousands of people (averaging around 40k) a year die from the flu even with flu shots being free and easily accessible. The vaccines don't eliminate the danger we just accept the consequences of flue season and keep society operating normally.

And that's because there's over a hundred flu strains (essentially all of which we have vaccines for), not all of which are vaccinated against every year. Since the vaccines only allow temporary immunity to the flu, and they can't reasonably vaccinate against all of them, we get a vaccine against the CDC's best guess of what will be circulating that year. Sometimes they get it wrong, and often people don't get their shots, so people still get the flu, and some of them die.

You are 100% correct. I'm not making any arguments or statements disputing that. I was trying to point out that even with a vaccine we are still vulnerable to the flue and we just keep operating like normal anyway because we've come to accept the risk. We don't know when we'll get a vaccine for covid19 or how effective it will be. Hopefully we get a vaccine eventually and it wipes out any danger from the virus but that might not happen, we may have to accept coronavirus as being somethng we just have to live with and accept like the flu. We don't have enough information to be able to make a reasonable prediction for the future.

**Laughing Man**

queen_annes_revenge wrote:
True. I guess it remains to be seen if they could make something for the few strains of cv. I thought that coronavirus ability to mutate was what effectively stopped vaccines being made.

There are plenty of coronaviruses with vaccines. If you're referring to the common cold, it's because the common cold isn't caused by any one virus. It's a collection of symptoms caused by hundreds of different viruses, usually rhinoviruses.

**queen_annes_revenge**

Dude, didn't you hear? A few more weeks in lockdown and the virus will be gone. Nothing to worry about!

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Laughing Man wrote:
queen_annes_revenge wrote:
True. I guess it remains to be seen if they could make something for the few strains of cv. I thought that coronavirus ability to mutate was what effectively stopped vaccines being made.

There are plenty of coronaviruses with vaccines. If you're referring to the common cold, it's because the common cold isn't caused by any one virus. It's a collection of symptoms caused by hundreds of different viruses, usually rhinoviruses.

Are you sure? Not being facetious, I'm genuinely curious. As far as I was aware the 6 pre cv19 coronas have no effective vaccines, those being mers, Sars 1 and OC43, -HKU1, HCoV-229E, -NL63, the 4 mild human cv. Wikipedia page has it that there are no vaccines for those. I'd be interested to hear otherwise.

**KamikazeCanuck**

Laughing Man wrote:
Prestor Jon wrote:
And in the US tens of thousands of people (averaging around 40k) a year die from the flu even with flu shots being free and easily accessible. The vaccines don't eliminate the danger we just accept the consequences of flue season and keep society operating normally.

And that's because there's over a hundred flu strains (essentially all of which we have vaccines for), not all of which are vaccinated against every year. Since the vaccines only allow temporary immunity to the flu, and they can't reasonably vaccinate against all of them, we get a vaccine against the CDC's best guess of what will be circulating that year. Sometimes they get it wrong, and often people don't get their shots, so people still get the flu, and some of them die.

There's more to it than that. The flu vaccine's legendary ineffectiveness is caused more by genetic drift during the creation process than the WHO choosing the wrong strain. The antigen for flu vaccine is grown in chicken eggs and always comes out slightly different than the virus it's trying to imitate. If it's close enough you'll produce antibodies that protect you from the real virus if it's off just a little too much the vaccine is ineffective.

**NinthMusketeer**

Even permanent immunity would mean little due to how fast a virus genome will change. Think of it like a drunk person copying a book, then passing it to another drunk who does his best to copy that, before passing it to another, and so on. And there is no proofreading allowed.

**Bran Dawri**

In other news, it seems that recovery from the virus is more difficult than previously imagined.
In the Netherlands people recuperating after surviving now aside from reduced long capacity also seem to suffer from damage to other organs, like the heart and kidneys, and some exibit symptoms of a brain infarct (is that an aneurysm in english? I always confuse the term).
It's unclear if and which of these problems are due to the respirators and associated drugs, and which are after-effects of the infection, but it seems something's wrong with their blood afterwards.

Personal conjecture: If your lungs are so badly damaged that you need a respirator, brain damage from lack of oxygen seems quite possible to me.

**Grey Templar**

Future War Cultist wrote:
tneva82 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
People think this is a disease like Smallpox or Bubonic plague where you can actually cure it. But its a Cold/Flu virus on steroids. You can't cure the common cold, you can't cure a 'roided up version of it either.

Ah so you are anti-vacc disbeliever? Seeing we have vaccines for influenza.

First, how in the feth did you get anti vac from that?

And second, where’s your source for your claims on Germany? I’m going to keep asking until you post it.

Yeah, I mean seriously. I didn't say anything about vaccines at all. I said Cure. A Cure is something that can eliminate a disease with nearly perfect results. In such a fashion that the disease can be completely eliminated, like we did with smallpox. A Cure might be a vaccine, like Smallpox was. Bubonic plague and leprosy are cured by antibacterial drugs.

Influenza vaccines basically suck, as far as vaccines go. They're only good for a year and they don't even fully protect you unless you get lucky. Saying they are a cure is completely false. The flu shot is just rolling the dice and hoping you get lucky. It might not work for you as an individual, it might not work against the strains you contact, and your immune system might not even need the help given the particular strains that year. Flu shots are only useful because they're cheap and don't hurt your chances so you might as well get one. If they weren't inexpensive and/or had bad side effects they would be useless because of how poorly they protect you.

I'm definitely not an anti-vaxxer.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Laughing Man wrote:
queen_annes_revenge wrote:
True. I guess it remains to be seen if they could make something for the few strains of cv. I thought that coronavirus ability to mutate was what effectively stopped vaccines being made.

There are plenty of coronaviruses with vaccines. If you're referring to the common cold, it's because the common cold isn't caused by any one virus. It's a collection of symptoms caused by hundreds of different viruses, usually rhinoviruses.

Which is why a vaccine for COVID-19 is basically a semi-useless goal. By the time it exists, COVID-19 won't be the problem. It'll be COVID-9 billion thats causing problems. And even if COVID-19 were still causing issues, Coronavirus vaccines are pretty ehhhh in terms of effectiveness.

**Overread**

It might also be that the volume means that some of the respirators being used are perhaps not the best on the market; or that staff aren't fully trained in their specific use so there could be mistakes happening (even really small ones) that could be compounding the situation.

Long term effects of recovery are really hard to understand right now; even china is only a few months out from their infection wave and recoveries.

I believe I recall reading that lung capacity should increase during recovery, though to what degree is hard to say and likely varies a lot depending on the health of the person when they go in; what treatments they get and how long they are infected for. And that's before considering any other ailments that might get them at the same time (eg pneumonia)