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Overread wrote: And that's why track and trace is the only way to police modern nations with the virus at large. At least until we either hit herd immunity or vaccine or at least gain medical drugs that reduce the worst of the condition.
You can lockdown like crazy, but in the end people move around (this is nothing new even in cave-man days humans moved around a LOT and traded items across vast distances). Goods move, people move and so much of the infrastructure of most countries relies on things from outside.
Yes agree 100%. I think that's why, in part, the UK approach is rather flippant and there is a danger to relieving lockdown while the track and trace system is not working adequately (at least, from the reports I have read about it).
I'm not quite sure who benefits from this approach. Absolutely - open the economy again, get people back to work. But if we now end up with another spike of infections (which, I think going off occurrences in other countries, who saw this happen even with a much lower infection rate, you have to think is likely) then they will end up having to close shop again. Which will cause even more disruption, and with lockdowns arguably far less effective as public confidence will have been eroded.
Hey DukeofStuff, how are you coming on explaining the other side of that "Florida massaging the data" story and why the media was spinning it for partisan purposes? Still interesting in hearing more!
Dukeofstuff wrote: I note that there are two very different stories about that incident and the person involved.
Its a good case study of the media handling something during the plague in a very partisan manner on both sides.
Can you expand on this? Because in the posted story, there really... isn't another side.
Jones, who built the state dashboard, says she was fired May 18 after refusing to “manipulate” COVID-19 data to justify reopening. DeSantis said she was fired because “she didn’t listen to the people who were her superiors.”
Those two sentences are perfectly in sync with each other. You must have some other source you are drawing from, I think?
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
It's weird. Everybody else is going back to work, I'm finally going home to not work for a month or two after being stuck in Angola away from my family due to Corona for 4,5 months.
I'm ever the contrarian.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/06/16 14:18:17
As we open up in Alberta, it is becoming more and more obvious that corporations are taking advantage of the crisis to screw over the workers.
My wife’s retail store has opened. Except she has no other staff. Her assistant manager and full time supervisor have been cut to part time hours if they want to go back to work.
Not only is this illegal, it puts the workers in a bad position, as they will lose all employment insurance pay, because they have been offered a job. But they can’t refuse the job, even though their hours are cut, and by refusing reduced hours and pay, they can get fined for not going back to work.
My wife is currently required to work 7 days a week without OT, and no one else to cover the store. It’s been like this for nearly a month.
While retail might be lamenting the loss of sales, they are taking full advantage of their workers to save money while they can still claim there is a crisis situation which prevents them from hiring anyone else back full time.
As usual the only winners here are the big corporations and companies that are able to skirt laws and screw over their workers on the ground.
They do indeed work, and while they aren't 100% effective, they greatly reduce the spread and transmission.
Unfortunately, not everyone wears masks when out and about, even when they should be.
Sadly, it seems to have become a bit of a political issue, among all the other reasons why people choose to not wear one...
Would have been EASY to get everyone to wear them. Call them "Patriot Masks" and encourage them to be made in red, white and blue. Explain how we're sacrificing just as the Greatest Generation did. That by wearing them we're protecting our first responders and our beloved military. Etcetera. Just would have taken a little interest and attention from a certain branch of the federal government, who has the bully pulpit to make that happen. Would likely have boosted someone's approval ratings also. It really goes to show you, on so many levels.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/06/16 16:17:44
I would be very wary of taking a case of only two examples as scientific proof that masks work.
I think we're all going to be made to wear them anyway.
However, the thing about opening up the shops is that people aren't going to go back to the shops and restaurants until they think it's safe.
UK retailers are reporting footfall down nearly 40% compared to this time last year, despite 10 weeks of pent-up demand and £6bn unspent.
60% of sales sounds a lot better than 0%, but it's low enough to put any retailer underwater once they are paying all their costs of staff and so on again.
I'd wager footfall will steadily rise unless/until there's a major outbreak. Even if its only regional, its report in the media would set things back
We also have to remember that some aspects of shopping will take longer to recover. For example with reduced numbers of people allowed in a shop, right now there's distinct pressure not to brows in shops compared to before. So shops are likely seeing far less footfall and far fewer opportunistic purchases than they normally would.
Similarly some services aren't on offer, like changing facilities in clothing shops. That's going to impact sales directly.
It's removed the "casual" stress free aspect from shopping so people are a bit more on-edge which likely eats into casual buying and also into a lot of shop skills at selling to customers. You can't easily chat your customers up into a sale when you're all hiding behind screens and wearing masks and really not used to such behaviour.
Plus with eateries still mostly shut that also cuts down on a lot of people who used to "go out" for the weekend as an activity - abite to eat at a few places, brows a few shops etc... Until we've a calmer, safer feeling climate (which like as not won't happen until vaccine/herd immunity/next year) I'd wager footfall will remain low, but should steadily increase.
Kilkrazy wrote: I would be very wary of taking a case of only two examples as scientific proof that masks work.
I think we're all going to be made to wear them anyway.
However, the thing about opening up the shops is that people aren't going to go back to the shops and restaurants until they think it's safe.
UK retailers are reporting footfall down nearly 40% compared to this time last year, despite 10 weeks of pent-up demand and £6bn unspent.
60% of sales sounds a lot better than 0%, but it's low enough to put any retailer underwater once they are paying all their costs of staff and so on again.
Yup. I have a trip to London in July. They're mandatory on public transport, so even if, as is usually the case on my slow train back to cholsey, the carriage is empty bar me, I'm still supposed to wear one. Absurd. I'll wear one on the tube, fine, but I will not wear one outdoors.
Kilkrazy wrote: I would be very wary of taking a case of only two examples as scientific proof that masks work.
I think we're all going to be made to wear them anyway.
The vast majority of scientific consensus seems to agree that they work to an extent, in terms of it stopping you infecting someone else - with a lot of the argument seemingly around how much of a difference they make.
Most of the negative advice seems to be behavioural i.e. with people feeling invulnerable while wearing a mask, and in cases (and I think the UK falls into this category) where they didn't want people panic-buying N95 masks when the NHS had a supply shortage.
I also think it has to be a factor in countries, such as Japan and S Korea, which have a very high population density yet lower comparable rates of infection (certainly compared to Europe and the US). There was also some anecdotal evidence of China Town in a city in the US (I can't recall the city unfortunately) which had a much lower rate amongst that area of the city.
So, I think if you were making a cost/benefit/risk analysis of use of masks, it seems to me a fairly low-cost/potential high benefit step to take. Certainly the company I work for is issuing a supply of masks to all staff, which will be based off of a risk assessment made independently of anything that the government here has put forward.
Data for my county is unfortunately showing a notable rise in cases, with the most infected group now 25-34 rather than 65+...
I think this is reflecting folks who aren't taking precautions and don't feel as at risk, resuming their lives without enough social distancing...
I'd love things to be able to stay open, but for that, people need to keep social distancing! Masks certainly help with that, when possible, particularly in places where it's hard to avoid being closer than 6 feet.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/06/16 19:52:41
RiTides wrote: Data for my county is unfortunately showing a notable rise in cases, with the most infected group now 25-34 rather than 65+...
I think this is reflecting folks who aren't taking precautions and don't feel as at risk, resuming their lives without enough social distancing...
I'd love things to be able to stay open, but for that, people need to keep social distancing! Masks certainly help with that, when possible, particularly in places where it's hard to avoid being closer than 6 feet.
Really? Ontario's been on a downward slide. We've hit our third consecutive day of fewer than 200 cases.
I'm in the somewhat-often-discussed in this thread Florida near Tampa, the site just detects Canada for some reason. There's a lot of awesome things here (Tom Brady just showed off his new uniform, for one ) but the numbers are pretty undeniable. We're going to have a long increasing plateau, if not a second spike, if people don't start distancing better.
RiTides wrote: I'm in the somewhat-often-discussed in this thread Florida near Tampa, the site just detects Canada for some reason. There's a lot of awesome things here (Tom Brady just showed off his new uniform, for one ) but the numbers are pretty undeniable. We're going to have a long increasing plateau, if not a second spike, if people don't start distancing better.
Phew, thought we had joined Florida for a second there....
RiTides wrote: I'm in the somewhat-often-discussed in this thread Florida near Tampa, the site just detects Canada for some reason. There's a lot of awesome things here (Tom Brady just showed off his new uniform, for one ) but the numbers are pretty undeniable. We're going to have a long increasing plateau, if not a second spike, if people don't start distancing better.
Phew, thought we had joined Florida for a second there....
Florida men?
To soon?....
Tbf nice looking place but too many Tourist for my liking.
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
I believe the Fatality rate is around 2%, where the 1917-18 Spanish Flu was closer to 18%? Meanwhile, the normal Flu has killed something like 2K people in the US this year and no one is losing their mind.
I don't think most of the posts from January did, and it's a bit unreasonable to call people out on it when there was so much unknown at the time. I myself also was in the "the flu is worse" camp because, well, we had been through so many false alarms in the States - SARS, MERS, Monkeypox, H1N1, Ebola, and so on. I was totally wrong and so were many other people.
I assume it varies by country and surely by demographics, but in the US, there have been a little over 2 million cases. A 2 percent fatality rate would be 40,000 deaths. We in fact have 116,000 dead, which is closer to 6%.
Sure, there are probably undiagnosed cases out there because our testing sucks, but that cuts both ways - plenty of people that died without being tested that didn't get counted. Add in the states where they are massaging the data for political reasons, and we don't know the true number, but there is no reason to think the fatality rate is less than 2%, unless you're just making up numbers because you don't really care.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/06/16 23:38:27
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
I haven't seen anyone suggest these are the actual fatality rate of the virus in the general population, it clearly is at least partially due to the world being caught totally off guard and lacking enough tests... and so those who are getting tested are a self selecting group.
It's bad, obviously... but it's also not 15%+, or anything like that... sucks that we don't have better testing to figure out what it really is.
Ouze wrote: That's only new on the federal level, several states already were massaging the data to some extent, Florida most egregiously.
I do remember seeing an interesting article in the news about the women who was creating the website for one of the states in America was fired after she refused to modify the data for them. Coulda been Florida, this was a month or so back mind you.
I did not read it as that. I read it as 'partisan official asks governors to spin things in a partisan way' which while despicable is pretty normal politics-level of despicable, even if rendered more so because of the lethality involved.
Florida also ordered medical examiners to stop documenting cause of death in public reporting, at least for a while. I think they had to walk that back when the MEs ratted them out to the press.
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
Ouze wrote: That's only new on the federal level, several states already were massaging the data to some extent, Florida most egregiously.
I do remember seeing an interesting article in the news about the women who was creating the website for one of the states in America was fired after she refused to modify the data for them. Coulda been Florida, this was a month or so back mind you.
Yeah, we were talking about this on the previous page (I don't blame you for missing it though--this thread moves fast). Dukeofstuff said he had read a very different telling of the same story, suggesting that the above had been spun in a very partisan way. Hopefully he will get back to us with a source since it is highly relevant to how seriously we treat the numbers she is putting out.
Ah sorry, my mistake. But yeah, I do have doubts if there is many countries out there who have been 100% honest with their statistics. Either by choosing what to gather or what to publish.
What, like because Russians are so indestructible they've got the 3rd highest rate of confirmed cases but the 13th in deaths?
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I had intended to let the matter drop, but now feel I have to post at least one source about the woman. Like I said, I think its a better study in media bias on both sides than it is a study in something real inside government data collection and reporting.
I could give a multiple page long analys of what I do and don't believe about this particular case, but I don't want to bring politics into this thread. Suffice to say, its wise to consume multiple viewpoints of media.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/06/17 02:54:41
Thank you for following up on that, interesting reading. I had searched on my own but had not found this. The second story especially fills in the gaps between what she says she was fired, and why the state said she was fired, which were pretty vague originally. The first one reads more like a hit piece for reasons addressed in the comments on the story, but in any event, the second story was what I was looking for.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/06/17 03:31:41
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
Heresy World Eaters/Emperors Children 
near Tampa, the site just detects Canada for some reason. There's a lot of awesome things here (Tom Brady just showed off his new uniform, for one 
) but the numbers are pretty undeniable. We're going to have a long increasing plateau, if not a second spike, if people don't start distancing better.
