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 Gert wrote:

FezzikDaBullgryn wrote:
The TV show is due in March of 2022, and might as well be called the "Game of Simarills" what with all the sex and violence the director said he is including.

Lord of the Rings is a violent setting though, can't comment on the sex stuff because I haven't nor do I intend to read the Silmarillion.

Tolkien didn't do sex. His characters 'begat.'
Sometimes the woman involved even appeared on the page, briefly.

100% yes. If this was any other company their gakky rules would be laughed at. GW can get away with publishing garbage rules and people ignore it because "ooh shiny miniatures".

 Sim-Life wrote:
Yes, it's absolutely true and I think only a few people who lack any kind of self-awareness would deny this.

There's always things to improve, but I just did a 6 round tournament and all of my games were a blast. I guess I didn't actually have fun?

beast_gts wrote:

Cronch wrote:
Why would disney ever buy the IP? It completely doesn't fit their profile and it may be recognizable, but it's so small in comparison.

Wizards of the Coast / Hasbro would be a better fit.

"Better fit" is laughable at best.

If that happens I'm not sure anyone would like the result.

It's a broad church. Gw do enough, adapt enough and reinvent themselves enough to stay relevant and successful. They give people what they want at the end of the day. Hobby is yours.

They're a lot cleverer and than folks give credit for, for the most part - they've left plenty howlers through the gate but that's true for every company in the industry. They've done enough besides that to keep people invested and draw new people in.

Once or twice? Yeah, fine. Fluke. Broken clocks are right twice a day, and all that. 40 odd years of continued success though? That's no fluke. They know what sells. They know what works. They know what people want.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 Sim-Life wrote:
Yes, it's absolutely true and I think only a few people who lack any kind of self-awareness would deny this.

There's always things to improve, but I just did a 6 round tournament and all of my games were a blast. I guess I didn't actually have fun?

Obviously you were having the wrong kind of fun and you don't realise that you were exploited during every single one of those games, duh. Sheepl these days... /s

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 Sim-Life wrote:
Yes, it's absolutely true and I think only a few people who lack any kind of self-awareness would deny this.

There's always things to improve, but I just did a 6 round tournament and all of my games were a blast. I guess I didn't actually have fun?

I'm not sure how you got that from what I said. Your sense of fun has nothing to do with GWs success. People have fun hitting cars with a crowbar, that doesn't make Ford successful.

Does Apple succeed in spite of itself?


So many people here confuse "What I think about how the policies of a company affect me as a custommer" with "How economically viable is a company being driven by the people at charge" and, normally, both are mutually exclusive with oneanother.

It doesn't matter that GW screws you as a customer. Saying that they don't know what they are doing comes as inmature. "They did bad to me so they are bad!" nah fam. Thats not how the world and capitalism works.

If GW or any other company launched 40k today with these rules and this quality miniatures, this amount of cool artwork and backstory, BUT at the price level they do today, NO ONE would pay attention.

GW's success is based on a long-running fanbase that motivate each other and draw in a new crowd. But I question how long it will last.

Certainly it has lasted longer than I would have expected, but just look at the new Black Templar started with 13 models and thin, thin volume of rules at 200 USD or even worse, 1200 DKK.

Where do they go from here? One space marine in a box for 300 USD?

It's a joke. And I doubt it is sustainable. I think they have been riding the coattails of their box games and board games and IP to be honest. But I can't see many young people going to a store or even online store and look at a starter with 13 models at 200 USD and think, WOW I am grabbing that.

You can almost get a half decent resin printer soon for that price.

The one thing I am watching is Warhammer The Old World. Considering how they nickle and dime you in their other games, I think that will be an interesting case. I would probably get the rules if it looks good, but I have a hard time imagining it will be what people expect or priced anywhere decently. Esp. if they do a split with Forge World where a bunch of special stuff, characters etc. comes out of.

Then again, I predicted GW's demise before and they sure take a good long time about it, soooo

Sgt. Cortez wrote:
Lotr didn't fail. At some point it was just finished and GW ... killed a big part of the fanbase.

Wait, what? This should have been a bigger scandal if true.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Deadnight wrote:
It's a broad church. Gw do enough, adapt enough and reinvent themselves enough to stay relevant and successful. They give people what they want at the end of the day. Hobby is yours.

They're a lot cleverer and than folks give credit for, for the most part - they've left plenty howlers through the gate but that's true for every company in the industry. They've done enough besides that to keep people invested and draw new people in.

Once or twice? Yeah, fine. Fluke. Broken clocks are right twice a day, and all that. 40 odd years of continued success though? That's no fluke. They know what sells. They know what works. They know what people want.

Yeah. I've been in this hobby since 1988 and online since 1995 or so, and I don't remember a time when people weren't prophesising GW's imminent collapse due to high prices or bad decisions. Meanwhile all of the companies said to have been 'the next big thing' nipping at their heels have instead dried up and withered away.

While I'm sure some will argue that 'it's just a correction' and while I agree that GW stock was overvalued...

It's gone from $160 a share to $130 a share, almost annihilating an entire years gains since September 20th. That's not good, no matter how you slice it.

 Draccan wrote:
GW's success is based on a long-running fanbase that motivate each other and draw in a new crowd. But I question how long it will last.

The "fanbase" didn't get me into the hobby, being a child and seeing cool SciFi stuff did, which GW does very well.

Certainly it has lasted longer than I would have expected, but just look at the new Black Templar started with 13 models and thin, thin volume of rules at 200 USD or even worse, 1200 DKK.

Where do they go from here? One space marine in a box for 300 USD?

It's a joke. And I doubt it is sustainable. I think they have been riding the coattails of their box games and board games and IP to be honest. But I can't see many young people going to a store or even online store and look at a starter with 13 models at 200 USD and think, WOW I am grabbing that.

There's hyperbole and then there's that. Also, the BT box isn't getting sold as a proper "starter" box like the starter boxes or Start Collecting/Combat Patrols are, it's literally a limited run product.

Then again, I predicted GW's demise before and they sure take a good long time about it, soooo

People have been "predicting" GW's demise since I started the hobby, why stop now when they're still wrong and will continue to be wrong unless certain events turn the UK into Mad Max land.

 Draccan wrote:
If GW or any other company launched 40k today with these rules and this quality miniatures, this amount of cool artwork and backstory, BUT at the price level they do today, NO ONE would pay attention.

But that's a good business model, no? Exploit the position you are actually in.

As much as GW's prices can be eye-watering at times, I would rather be gouged and have a stream of new models available than pay reasonable prices but watch the business collapse two years later.

 Draccan wrote:
GW's success is based on a long-running fanbase that motivate each other and draw in a new crowd. But I question how long it will last.

Certainly it has lasted longer than I would have expected, but just look at the new Black Templar started with 13 models and thin, thin volume of rules at 200 USD or even worse, 1200 DKK.

Where do they go from here? One space marine in a box for 300 USD?

It's a joke. And I doubt it is sustainable.

It has literally been sustainable for over 30 years.

 BaronIveagh wrote:
While I'm sure some will argue that 'it's just a correction' and while I agree that GW stock was overvalued...

It's gone from $160 a share to $130 a share, almost annihilating an entire years gains since September 20th. That's not good, no matter how you slice it.

That's because they announced a huge dividend cut as a result of shipping and supply costs. The stock market has little to do with how customers value products.

soviet13 wrote:

 Draccan wrote:
If GW or any other company launched 40k today with these rules and this quality miniatures, this amount of cool artwork and backstory, BUT at the price level they do today, NO ONE would pay attention.

But that's a good business model, no? Exploit the position you are actually in.

As much as GW's prices can be eye-watering at times, I would rather be gouged and have a stream of new models available than pay reasonable prices but watch the business collapse two years later.

 Draccan wrote:
GW's success is based on a long-running fanbase that motivate each other and draw in a new crowd. But I question how long it will last.

Certainly it has lasted longer than I would have expected, but just look at the new Black Templar started with 13 models and thin, thin volume of rules at 200 USD or even worse, 1200 DKK.

Where do they go from here? One space marine in a box for 300 USD?

It's a joke. And I doubt it is sustainable.

It has literally been sustainable for over 30 years.

About the business model. I gave a clear example with the Black Templars on why it isn't sustainable. Just because something worked a long time doesn't mean it will forever. You have to factor in, that their revenue is in large parts based on them raising prices beyond an inflation rate. The discrepancy will be too big one day. We are getting there.
The fact it has been sustainable for 30 years says little. Kodak lasted a pretty long time, but went bankrupt because they couldn't adapt to the times.

I think GW has to adapt to the 3d printing business or die. And they have to find a way out of price rises to cover the loss in revenue. Now it is 13 space marines in a box for 200. Like I said, where can they go from here? 1 model for 300?
What kept them afloat in my opinion is the currency situation before Brexit, the hardcore fans promoting it all over the web, blogs, painting videos, clubs etc., leasing the IP for big games, splash standalone box games and board games.

It's true, GW's obituary have been written too many times. And I am not saying they are going under tomorrow. But I think they have painted themselves up into a corner. They are nearing the end of the endless price hikes, they seem to have a hard time growing the core games fanbase and other financial realities might begin to really hit home...

You don't need to have a crystal ball to see that people can 3d print better and better and better, and quicker, with less and less technical obstacles. The amount of FB groups supporting 3d printing of even small niche games and 3d printing services offered... The bottom will eventually go out of the market - it's a matter of time..

Twaddle, balderdash, poppycock and indeed factually inaccurate.

Go look at their published (and independently verified under U.K. law) year end financials.

Look at the past 5 or 6 years, and how much their sales have gone up.

Work that out as a percentage increase.

Then come back and claim “they’re only increasing income by increasing prices higher than inflation” with a straight face. Because you won’t be able to do it. On account it’s a claim not at all supported by the facts.

"Abusive spouse" is absolutely the pair of words I'd use.

I had used them, in fact, at some point, because they encapsulate 40K in 2020 for me. I got back with them to see 9th, assured they had changed, and I let it smack me in the face for six months because of the times we'd had and stories we'd told with My Dudes back in 3rd-5th. Then I wised up, had a trial separation sometime on the tail end of the Marine release train, which became proper divorce papers around the time of the TTS debacle.

To further extend the unsavory analogy, I even had a rebound fling with Battletech for a month before settling on a more stable relationship with One Page Rules.

Except I still come around occasionally to complain about how much I hate my ex.

Now, I can already see someone calling comparing 40K tantamount to domestic violence hyperbolic, if it hasn't happened 12 times already in this thread, and... yes, it is. It is 100% hyperbolic. I mean absolutely no insensitivity to anyone who has suffered any form of actual spousal abuse. But it's still a descriptive analogy because... 40K is kind of an insidious thing. The problems seem obvious from the outside - the game's awful and bloated and slow, the models are overpriced, the books are day one DLC, GW's policies are increasingly ham-fisted, so why don't they just leave? - but the emotions involved are much more complicated. Between nostalgia, the lore and setting, the game's own self-feeding popularity, and the stories you've made for your Dudes within that setting over years, It's surprisingly hard to let go of even if you despise the game and what it's doing, and since I'm still here, even I obviously haven't 100% succeeded.

Creatively divorcing my ideas and Dudes from the 40K universe wasn't easy, but it had to be done at some point to escape.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Twaddle, balderdash, poppycock and indeed factually inaccurate.

Go look at their published (and independently verified under U.K. law) year end financials.

Look at the past 5 or 6 years, and how much their sales have gone up.

Work that out as a percentage increase.

Then come back and claim “they’re only increasing income by increasing prices higher than inflation” with a straight face. Because you won’t be able to do it. On account it’s a claim not at all supported by the facts.

If you only read things half-assed, that people write and reply haphazardly, what's the point?

I never said they ONLY rose prices.. I specifically mentioned other areas as well, including successful box releases and selling their IP: And the currency market. It's clear people bought a lot more toys when they were in lockdown and/or working from home.

What I DID say - and no one can counter this; they have had prices rises as part of their strategy and they have continually raised prices above inflation, year by year and what I said was, where do they go from here? They are hitting a brick wall at some point. And it will - whatever you say - affect their business of core products. Their best hope is to diversify, but when you look at the report a lot of their income comes from third party retailers. And that can be a fickle thing to rely on in the future.

Do you honestly, and seriously believe GW can continue to raise prices above inflation? And where do you see they will grow their revenue? Do you believe the amount of 40k (and other GW games) players will go up or down in the next five years? (Can they grow the player base.) And how do you think technology will affect GW (3d printing) Those are the questions whose answers will determine where GW will be in 5 years.
I for one can't see a way for them to continue price hikes in a sensible way. I can't see them growing the player base over time. And currently they are not finding ways to combat 3d printing.

Bigger companies than GW has fallen. And there are new disruptors in the marketplace.

 Draccan wrote:

What I DID say - and no one can counter this; they have had prices rises as part of their strategy and they have continually raised prices above inflation, year by year and what I said was, where do they go from here?

They don't raise their prices every year. WHC now announces changes each time - we haven't had an increase yet this year. First was brushes and paints in 2018, start collecting in 2019, and an increase on existing kits in 2020.

Many kits do not go over inflation. Landraider was $60 is 2005 and with inflation it should be $96+ depending on the year it actually came out. Newer kits are a higher quality than the old ones and are going to have a higher price point.

 Draccan wrote:

What I DID say - and no one can counter this; they have had prices rises as part of their strategy and they have continually raised prices above inflation, year by year and what I said was, where do they go from here? They are hitting a brick wall at some point. And it will - whatever you say - affect their business of core products. Their best hope is to diversify, but when you look at the report a lot of their income comes from third party retailers. And that can be a fickle thing to rely on in the future.

Do you honestly, and seriously believe GW can continue to raise prices above inflation? And where do you see they will grow their revenue? Do you believe the amount of 40k (and other GW games) players will go up or down in the next five years? (Can they grow the player base.) And how do you think technology will affect GW (3d printing) Those are the questions whose answers will determine where GW will be in 5 years.
I for one can't see a way for them to continue price hikes in a sensible way. I can't see them growing the player base over time. And currently they are not finding ways to combat 3d printing.

Bigger companies than GW has fallen. And there are new disruptors in the marketplace.

The thing is that I've been reading variations of this post for nigh-on 20 years and the predicted fall has never come true. Yes, they've wobbled a couple of times, but they have also course corrected afterward.

I think GW are quite clever in testing the waters to see how far their pricing can go. When something works they keep doing it, when it doesn't they back away. We also see that they target different price points for different parts of the fanbase. Something like the Templars box is targeted at the hardcore fans who want the Blanche art book and need the new kits now now now, so they know they can charge a lot of money for a small amount of models and it will sell. But they also have various discount boxes available for those who are less fanatical or more price-sensitive.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
They don't raise their prices every year.

They don't need to. They raise prices with individual releases. Compare the Battlewagon now to Battlewagon + upgrade sprue prior to them putting it in the same box (and look at how everyone was stunned at the price of the Kill Rig). Compare how prices have risen for single frame characters since their introduction. Look how large models come out at once price, and then a similar model comes out at a slightly higher price, and then another similar (yet, admittedly bulkier) model comes out a significantly higher price, followed by much thinner model at the same price rather than the same price as the last one rather than a price that matches the first of the four given they're roughly equivalent in size. And then something like this comes out, is more expensive than a Bloodthirster, and we assume it's KOS sized, but it's actually much smaller.

Or just compare Rhinos - Marine (Rhino sprues + Marine Accessory + Razorback), Chaos Rhino (Rhino sprues + Chaos accessory + spiky accessory) at a slightly higher price, and Sisters of Battle (Rhino sprues + Sisters accessory sprue) at a significantly higher price, despite having fewer sprues than the other two. I mean, the Castigator and the Predator are not the same kit, but they're also not that far apart from one another... except in price, where the newer on is 168% the cost.

So again, them not raising the prices every year is irrelevant when then raise them with individual releases.

Any critique of GW based on price runs into the very simple fact that people have been bemoaning GW's price increases for literal decades.

I agree that it's crazy expensive, and I don't know how anybody collects it, but they seem to find a market. For every person they price out of the hobby, they seem to find new people willing to start. It's just ridiculous to say that they are overcharging when prices are crazy high and they still can't completely meet demand.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:

 Daedalus81 wrote:
They don't raise their prices every year.

They don't need to. They raise prices with individual releases. Compare the Battlewagon now to Battlewagon + upgrade sprue prior to them putting it in the same box (and look at how everyone was stunned at the price of the Kill Rig). Compare how prices have risen for single frame characters since their introduction. Look how large models come out at once price, and then a similar model comes out at a slightly higher price, and then another similar (yet, admittedly bulkier) model comes out a significantly higher price, followed by much thinner model at the same price rather than the same price as the last one rather than a price that matches the first of the four given they're roughly equivalent in size. And then something like this comes out, is more expensive than a Bloodthirster, and we assume it's KOS sized, but it's actually much smaller.

Or just compare Rhinos - Marine (Rhino sprues + Marine Accessory + Razorback), Chaos Rhino (Rhino sprues + Chaos accessory + spiky accessory) at a slightly higher price, and Sisters of Battle (Rhino sprues + Sisters accessory sprue) at a significantly higher price, despite having fewer sprues than the other two. I mean, the Castigator and the Predator are not the same kit, but they're also not that far apart from one another... except in price, where the newer on is 168% the cost.

So again, them not raising the prices every year is irrelevant when then raise them with individual releases.

Sure. They're going to use every opportunity to price at the new level. The battlewagon is probably the most ridiculous outcome for any kit in their history.

 Polonius wrote:
Any critique of GW based on price runs into the very simple fact that people have been bemoaning GW's price increases for literal decades.

So, what, we call it a wash and never bring it up?

 H.B.M.C. wrote:

 Polonius wrote:
Any critique of GW based on price runs into the very simple fact that people have been bemoaning GW's price increases for literal decades.

So, what, we call it a wash and never bring it up?

I think you can bring it up whenever you want, I’m not the take police, but I’m not sure it’s relevant to a discussion about GWs success. Or, it’s actually incredibly relevant, because GW has increased sales despite price hikes, which shows they have a good sense of what the market will bare.

“Look how stupid GW is, they’re raising prices while growing the market!”

Yeah, GW's high prices are certainly a valid topic of discussion... but what they're not, is a sign of impending doom.

I got into 40K in 1994. There was a price rise 6 months later that everyone decried as being the death of the game. The argument that they're sooner or later going to price themselves into oblivion feels weaker with every successive price rise that doesn't trigger the apocalypse that's been predicted as imminent for 30 years.

Like the claim that the rules are 'unplayable' it's one of those places where people often seem to mistake their own opinion for that of the majority of the player base.

Sunny Side Up wrote:
LoTR failed, despite the IP
Warhammer Fantasy failed, despite the IP
X-Wing basically disappeared, despite the IP

LOTR and X-wing are IP based but IMHO don't count. because the game isn't a "centerpiece by which the IP revoles around"

Warhammer (be it 40K AOS or fantasy battles) are, ultimately, ruled by the minis and table top war game. if you get into those IPs you're going to be strongly drawn towards the game. LOTR and X-wing do not have those, you can be huge fans of the franchise yet not even know those games exist

 Polonius wrote:
“Look how stupid GW is, they’re raising prices while growing the market!”

Well I never said that...

 insaniak wrote:
Like the claim that the rules are 'unplayable' it's one of those places where people often seem to mistake their own opinion for that of the majority of the player base.

Unplayable is just hyperbolic shorthand for "they write bad rules". And they do. They write terrible rules.

Wayniac wrote:
100% yes. If this was any other company their gakky rules would be laughed at. GW can get away with publishing garbage rules and people ignore it because "ooh shiny miniatures".

Some (a lot?), of us also have ignored substandard rules because we’d prefer to at least get some games in and often it’s play GW or play nothing.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:

 insaniak wrote:
Like the claim that the rules are 'unplayable' it's one of those places where people often seem to mistake their own opinion for that of the majority of the player base.

Unplayable is just hyperbolic shorthand for "they write bad rules". And they do. They write terrible rules.

Sure. But whether or not that is actually a problem is a matter of personal opinion, not a universal truth. Because, like the price rises, they've been writing terrible rules from the beginning, and yet people keep buying them, and playing the games, and enjoying it.

So the rules being terribly written isn't a sign that GW are doing something wrong. Just a sign that they're not writing rules for people who care about the rules being technically sound or well-written.