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I assume there's no rumors about when we might see Empire?

Or Chaos, for that matter?

(Damnit, I want me some Forsaken!)

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
I assume there's no rumors about when we might see Empire?

My personal belief is Chaos and Empire are last. Chaos because I have a feeling we'll get 4 god dedicated Armies of Infamy and Empire because we're most likely getting 3 sub-factions tied to the 3 Emperors and so will be a heftier release.

Now, of course, I have no evidence for that.

Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

chaos0xomega wrote: If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

It's pretty clear that they *don't* have enough capacity, given that practically everything the release sells out minutes after the pre-order window opens.

 SgtEeveell wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote: If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

It's pretty clear that they *don't* have enough capacity, given that practically everything the release sells out minutes after the pre-order window opens.

There's a reason they're building a new factory.

 Baragash wrote:

 SgtEeveell wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote: If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

It's pretty clear that they *don't* have enough capacity, given that practically everything the release sells out minutes after the pre-order window opens.

There's a reason they're building a new factory.

Wait another one? I thought they'd just built one and the main issue is that they can't even run another one at full capacity because the local electrical grid can't take it?

 Overread wrote:

 Baragash wrote:

 SgtEeveell wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote: If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

It's pretty clear that they *don't* have enough capacity, given that practically everything the release sells out minutes after the pre-order window opens.

There's a reason they're building a new factory.

Wait another one? I thought they'd just built one and the main issue is that they can't even run another one at full capacity because the local electrical grid can't take it?

What I heard when I visited warhammer world was that gw built a second but then had to upgrade the electrical grid to power it. And then the plan was to ramp it up to meet demand, but the spike in demand during covid meant that it basically went to full capacity immediately, thus the talk of another factory.

What about new factory?

You've already had it.

We've had one, yes. What about second new factory?

Last actual newspaper article on it said the "new factory" was just a dedicated packing centre, intended to give some elbow room to the casting operations in the main factory.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/business/warhammer-firm-games-workshop-build-9344258

For those interested

I'm guessing GW are still half worried that some of the covid bubble is going to burst at some point, or rather now that the cost of living is going to bite harder. So a cheaper (than production) new packing factory can at least last long term as a functional component even if things quieten down; and they can squeeze a few more machines into existing factories.

Fingers crossed that the dwarf book ebay leak means GW will feel obligated to reveal the remaining dwarf characters today

Any educated guesses on what the Dwarf 'Royal Clans' army is likely to be?

 Overread wrote:


Releasing 1 codex is an entirely different production lineup to releasing multiple new kits, with new SKUs, new picking and packing, new contents and everything.

Except, that's the thing, it's not different at all. TOW kits are not new kits. They are old kits. There is functionally no difference between launching a TOW faction at this point vs a new codex release for 40k. Both get a production run of existing kits packed up into new boxes with a new SKU that needs to be picked, packed, and shipped off with new supporting materials, rulebooks, etc. It doesn't much make a difference if the last production run for the molds were done 20 weeks ago or 20 years ago, the impact is the same. If you were under the impression that the kits for, I dunno genestealer cults or something, sit in production continuously year in and year out and that they are now adding dwarves to also sit in production year in year out, then you are sorely mistaken in your understanding of how manufacturing works.

 lord_blackfang wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Working in manufacturing as I do, I have to tell you that there is absolutely zero difference between releasing a TOW faction (metal kits notwithstanding) or a new codex release for 40k. The only extra step for TOW is resurfacing the old molds. The production planning, workflow, capacity and utilization impact, etc is all the same. The fact that it's product that they weren't producing before doesn't really change that unless it requires new production tooling - that's where the resource investment actually occurs. Likewise the fact that 40k stuff is in pipeline/rotation already and TOW is being added to it doesn't change much either - GW has been steadily growing their capacity for some time, likewise removing old products from production. If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

All other things being equal it still physically takes longer to manufacture the average ToW box (at least four, can be up to ten, shots of a 4-man sprue and then probably a shot of a separate command sprue and maybe even shield sprues) than it does the average AoS box (max two shots of a 5 or 10-man sprue).

Yes, this much is true, I believe I'm the one that brought that to everyone's attention in the fiest place in practical terms though, that just means it takes longer to produce each TOW kit than it would an AoS kit.

The machines used to produce those older kits also may be a different form factor than the presses used for modern kits, if so there's no real impact to their ability to manufacture other modern kits. That may explain why despite being less efficient to produce the TOW kits, the price is comparatively lower than AoS equivalents.

 Overread wrote:
Beastmen was a surprise for everyone that GW pulled it from AoS and threw it into Old World

No it wasn't a surprise at all. If you look back in this very thread you'd see that I was posting unconfirmed rumors that Beastmen would be cut from AoS like a year ago.

 SgtEeveell wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote: If they're releasing TOW it's because they have capacity to accommodate it without impacting something else.

It's pretty clear that they *don't* have enough capacity, given that practically everything the release sells out minutes after the pre-order window opens.

That's by design in most cases though.

 Overread wrote:
I'm guessing GW are still half worried that some of the covid bubble is going to burst at some point, or rather now that the cost of living is going to bite harder. So a cheaper (than production) new packing factory can at least last long term as a functional component even if things quieten down; and they can squeeze a few more machines into existing factories.

and frankly, they're quite smart to act like the bubble is going to burst. even if it never does, playing it safe is better than continuing to expand, then suddenly having to fire hundreds or thousands of employees, like has become common in the video game industry of late. saves a lot of people a lot of grief

 StudentOfEtherium wrote:

 Overread wrote:
I'm guessing GW are still half worried that some of the covid bubble is going to burst at some point, or rather now that the cost of living is going to bite harder. So a cheaper (than production) new packing factory can at least last long term as a functional component even if things quieten down; and they can squeeze a few more machines into existing factories.

and frankly, they're quite smart to act like the bubble is going to burst. even if it never does, playing it safe is better than continuing to expand, then suddenly having to fire hundreds or thousands of employees, like has become common in the video game industry of late. saves a lot of people a lot of grief

The video game industry has always been insanely volatile, but this recent wave I think was sparked both by "cost of living" but also because of that big firm that was buying up every smaller firm it could and then had a huge deal fall through and has been free falling selling off as much as they can (or just closing studios) to basically survive. So it kind of broke a whole bunch of the industry all at once.


And yes GW taking it slow with expansion has been a huge saviour for them; as has been their choice to only expand with earned profits and reinvestment instead of taking on debt. So many big highstreet brands/stores are dead now, in part because they loaded themsleves up with debt to expand fast and that leaves them vulnerable when sales take a dip

I’m not sure we’re seeing a Covid bubble.

Yes everyone being stuck at home kicking their heels does appear to have positively influenced GW’s sales. But lockdown ended a decent time ago now. And we’re still seeing GW reporting record sales and profits.

To me, it’s another example of GW’s insane luck. Not that Covid came along, but that it came along just after they’d spent a chunk of time and money investing in expanding their offerings.

Consider it’s not all that long ago that playing GW meant 40K or Fantasy, and the costs inherent to that. But now, you’ve much smaller scaled games from Underworlds, via WarCry and Kill Team, then Necromunda, Adeptus Titanicus and so on.

I suspect but of course have absolutely no way to prove many folks returning might’ve started off with one of those games, or a product for it. Especially for painters, where things like Underworlds provide a set cash investment per warband, in exchange for some pretty funky and unique models. And being hex based movement, was quite possibly easily played online, as you just needed a camera, an opponent, and a matching board setup. You wouldn’t even need matching models, as bits of paper to show where your opponent’s models are would do in a pinch.

But daft theories aside, I still think their diversified price points were an attraction to people returning to the hobby for want of literally anything else to do.

I mean, if you Buck Rodgers’d someone into modern GW from 10, 15 years ago? The offerings just wouldn’t compare, to the point (yes yes business practices aside, I’m enthusiastic, not stupid) you might wonder if it’s the same company.

I think GW went from a Covid bubble to a sustained steady market, but that is now being hit directly with the "cost of living" issue. Now hobbies often do well in times of stress because people seek escapism, but at the same time when we've seen almost everything leap up in price (if anything GW's steady price rises leave it feeling actually untouched whilst a LOT of everything else just jumped).

So I think their concern likely went from a covid bubble bursting (which happened to several firms - like those exercise bites with a TV screen) to a potential slowdown if the COLC keeps continuing as it has done. So maybe less of a bursting and more of an eventual slowdown in sales.

Now their Amazon deal and push into more marketing could soak that. So GW might just ride it out by constantly tapping into fresh markets and customers. Much in the same way Video games maintained lower prices and very little price creep for a very long time (esp PC, consoles rose faster)because their market went from a tiny niche to mainstream.

There were press reports the other week of another year’s solid growth, of around 10 percent.

So seems cost of living hasn’t dented them at all, though the annual report due in the next couple of weeks will have the crunchy data for those who wish to crunch it.

https://www.jamessharp.co.uk/market-news/games-workshop-group-plc-year-end-trading-update/#:~:text=Games%2520Workshop%2520is%2520pleased%2520to,23%253A%2520%C2%A325%2520million).

Hobbies are definitely a weird one. Peleton, those bike thingies have a fairly limited market, and rely on people sticking to an exercise regiment month in, month out for subscription income. Whereas anything with a collecting element just doesn’t have that same limit. I’ll spend probably a couple of thousand this year all told, and a couple of thousand next year, and so on and so forth. Spesh now I’m painting - all those brushes and pots and spray cans add up.

And for a collecting hobby with games involved like TTWG as a whole? They create their own advertising with games being seen to be played. And for GW in particular, a long standing intro culture of Going Easy On The New Blood, because you kind of want them as more challenging opponents in the future, and reciprocating the kindness once extended to you. At least, when it’s done “right”. Sadly there’s always folk out there who just want a win, whether it’s NooB Stomping or defeating a Grand Tournament winner. And the really rotten sort who stick to NooB Stomping for reasons best known to their own fragile ego.

 Overread wrote:
I think GW went from a Covid bubble to a sustained steady market, but that is now being hit directly with the "cost of living" issue. Now hobbies often do well in times of stress because people seek escapism, but at the same time when we've seen almost everything leap up in price (if anything GW's steady price rises leave it feeling actually untouched whilst a LOT of everything else just jumped).

So I think their concern likely went from a covid bubble bursting (which happened to several firms - like those exercise bites with a TV screen) to a potential slowdown if the COLC keeps continuing as it has done. So maybe less of a bursting and more of an eventual slowdown in sales.

Now their Amazon deal and push into more marketing could soak that. So GW might just ride it out by constantly tapping into fresh markets and customers. Much in the same way Video games maintained lower prices and very little price creep for a very long time (esp PC, consoles rose faster)because their market went from a tiny niche to mainstream.

Except developper cost should've been down from technological advancement in regards to engines.. Alas Video games decided to cut the project appart instead so the "equal price" really is just a cold hidden inflation of cost.

 Olthannon wrote:
Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

I think Chaos [Warriors] will be 'paired' against High Elves.

GW sailed unscathed right through the 2008+ crisis too.

Cool dudes with chainsaw swords make us happy and maybe when folks can't afford a 5k cruise, you can make a killing on 50$ boxes of chainsaw swords.

 Daba wrote:

 Olthannon wrote:
Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

I think Chaos [Warriors] will be 'paired' against High Elves.

On Valraks latest video he mentions talking about Chaos and High elves coming next in a future video

 Daba wrote:

 Olthannon wrote:
Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

I think Chaos [Warriors] will be 'paired' against High Elves.

Why are folks saying anything will be paired with anything, were greenskins paired with anything?

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Daba wrote:

 Olthannon wrote:
Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

I think Chaos [Warriors] will be 'paired' against High Elves.

Why are folks saying anything will be paired with anything, were greenskins paired with anything?

Mostly due to that stupid rumour born from that stupid influencer video that put up a fake road map with fake pairings that did the rounds a while back. It keeps getting posting across old world groups as people keep falling for it as real even now.

People have it in their heads now that every release has to be paired up, even though orcs & gobbos were on their own and dwarves have been announced as being on their own too.

 lord_blackfang wrote:
GW sailed unscathed right through the 2008+ crisis too.

Cool dudes with chainsaw swords make us happy and maybe when folks can't afford a 5k cruise, you can make a killing on 50$ boxes of chainsaw swords.

yeah, that's certainly something in GW's favor. as bad as their prices can be, the average person isn't going out and buying 2000 points of models every month. if you're just buying a new $50 box each month, or something along that scale, wargaming becomes a much more manageable hobby to be interested in. new stuff every now and then, but while you're treating yourself, you're not breaking the bank to do so

and this connects to the point above about the different offerings GW has these days. a new 2000 point army every month is clearly untenable, but picking up a new underworlds warband to paint, or a new kill team, or so on? that's a lot easier to justify, even when keeping costs down is a concern (for example, all of my purchases lately have been for kill team)

There's a longstanding... I dunno what to call it, maybe belief, in old school investing and business analyst circles that hobby spending is basically recession proof, etc. The thinking is pretty basic - people will cut vacation travel, eating out at restaurants, etc etc etc but will always find time and money to spend on their hobbies.

I'm hoping high elves and Warriors are next...makes sense quintessential good versus evil plus some of their better sellers. And Valrak has a pretty good track record I believe


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Daba wrote:

 Olthannon wrote:
Yep. Agreed. I'm reckoning on Empire v Chaos will be tied into something like a year since TOW first released or similar.

I think Chaos [Warriors] will be 'paired' against High Elves.

Why are folks saying anything will be paired with anything, were greenskins paired with anything?

Just means one release following the other

 Overread wrote:
I think GW went from a Covid bubble to a sustained steady market, but that is now being hit directly with the "cost of living" issue. Now hobbies often do well in times of stress because people seek escapism, but at the same time when we've seen almost everything leap up in price (if anything GW's steady price rises leave it feeling actually untouched whilst a LOT of everything else just jumped).

Very true. With everything going on in the world who can fault me for wanting to escape into a fantasy world where fascist fanatics ruthlessly oppress the citizens? And the only alternatives are aliens and demons who literally want to eat you?

For the Emperor!