Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
2023/07/13 00:00:21
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: Ultimately, it's all hypothetical of course because they did turn things around, I simply found it interesting to hear from what I assumed would be trusted sources how close to needing to take serious action they actually were. But I appear to have stepped on ak ideological landmine in the process.
It's interesting to see this information crop up and revist some older threads and debates such as the one I posted above. A lot of people at the time were pointing out that the then path GW was taking was not sustainable and was likely to cause problems. Seems a few commentors were a lot closer to the mark than they thought.
Yeah its scary to think of how GW were at the end of the Kirby days.
In a way they were doing some of what Magic the Gathering and DnD are doing right now. Focusing on the short term profits at the cost of long term gains; resulting in ever shorter and shorter term thinking that often burns bridges and burns out customers. All until they finally tip things over and the bubble bursts. In GW's case that was when AoS launched and it was very clear that they made a slew of wrong choices and that isolation from the actual buying public as well as other marketing and management choices; had walked them down a very very wrong path.
In DnD's case we saw it when they tried ot take away the open licence
In the case of MTG they are still going strong, but the signs are there and already they did a whole "15cards for $1000" (or it might have been more than 15 but it wasn't many) which was a daftness. They are still going strong and in the milking phase; but still making choices that could result in them burning out.
nou wrote: Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something".
I'm not sure that debt policies really had much to do with it. Covid was a bump for most hobby companies, because a lot of people were stuck at home and wound up spending more money on hobby products as a result.
2023/07/13 00:07:54
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: Once more, and for the last time, both what is asserted by the guys in the video and the GW financial reports for the equivalent period can be true.
I am not, and, go back and look, never have, disputed the veracity of the end of year reports.
They can't both be true due to many of the things MDG listed above, but one in particular, who you and your side of the argument undervalue greatly.
GW had no to little debt.
4-6 weeks of liquidity left is not the same thing as 4-6 weeks to bankruptcy. Liquidity crisis can only be deadly if, and only if, you can't get a short term loan from anywhere, usually because you're drowning in debt already. Public company the size of GW, with their IP, with audited financial reports clean as theirs were, can go and get such a loan literaly anywhere they like. What is more - GW, even back then, would be welcomed in any investment bank in the world if they ever wanted to change their finance model from their self-financed-growth to growth-from-perpetual-debt. Companies with such healthy finances as GW has, had and will have as long as they are dominantly self-financed, have years long eventual downward spirals ahead of them.
This whole thread is just a haters wet dream and nothing else. And yes, two guys, even insiders, talking on the podcast about topics they were not responsible for, and which are completely outside their areas of expertise, are not even in the same league of credibility as official financial reports of public company.
Given the context I more or less took that to be what was intended? We have 4-6 weeks until we have to shut the doors unless we do something.
Much like all of the credible arguments at the time were GW is going to go out of business unless they do something.
You also have to remember that we're taking 8 or so years ago here, end phase Kirby, very early Rountree. Before the COVID bump, before share prices in double figures. GW showed flat to negative growth in this period too, albeit while maintaining a profit and paying a dividend.
There's also the question of the £15m that Peachy mentions, now that could represent a variety of things, but, if true, that represents about 20% of GW's annual turnover at the time.
So while, fundamentally, I agree, if things hadn't transpired as they have, they'd have probably found another solution, GW were, at the time, a shrinking company with a notable liability and, because they don't borrow, no track record for credit. Plus, of course, anything you borrow you have to pay back, and if you're looking at flat to falling sales forecasts that may not fill an accountant with optimism.
Ultimately, it's all hypothetical of course because they did turn things around, I simply found it interesting to hear from what I assumed would be trusted sources how close to needing to take serious action they actually were. But I appear to have stepped on ak ideological landmine in the process.
Track record of credit is only a concern of individuals asking banks for loans, not public companies going out in search for a liquidity loan. And you even underline, that they were still making profit back then. Popular "no growth equals imminent doom" mentality is clouding your judgement here. Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something". The event we're debating over in this thread was really small, and moreover, very common short term liquidity problem, not a bankruptcy perspective. "Unless we do something" back then was more like "unless we do literalily anything else apart of running around with our hands in the air, screaming".
So we agree that if they had actually run out of money then they had options? You're right of course, multinationals don't have a credit history per se, but equally a company that trumpets about never borrowing asking for a loan isn't a check in the "pros" column for a potential lender either. Let me be clear, I'm in no way suggesting GW wouldn't have been able to borrow their way out if needs be, simply that they weren't quite as appealing back then as they would be now.
The remarkable part, to me, is how close this apparently healthy company came to needing to, and how closely it echoes what some people were saying at the time.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 00:09:10
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
nou wrote: Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something".
I'm not sure that debt policies really had much to do with it. Covid was a bump for most hobby companies, because a lot of people were stuck at home and wound up spending more money on hobby products as a result.
That is not as easy as that. The biggest bump because of COVID entertainment spendings was in mobile games (as a graphic designer I hugely benefited from this), because of independency of this kind of production on anything material. But many smaller physical gaming companies, like e.g. Awaken Realms struggled to survive due to shipping prices hike alone (nearly 1000% hike in cost of sea shipping containers). There was a room to grow created by COVID, yes, but the ability of GW to seize it was due to huge financial stability they have due to no debt policy. In other words - they had the room to not care, that the world was going down in flames.
2023/07/13 00:18:05
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: Ultimately, it's all hypothetical of course because they did turn things around, I simply found it interesting to hear from what I assumed would be trusted sources how close to needing to take serious action they actually were. But I appear to have stepped on ak ideological landmine in the process.
It's interesting to see this information crop up and revist some older threads and debates such as the one I posted above. A lot of people at the time were pointing out that the then path GW was taking was not sustainable and was likely to cause problems. Seems a few commentors were a lot closer to the mark than they thought.
Yeah its scary to think of how GW were at the end of the Kirby days.
In a way they were doing some of what Magic the Gathering and DnD are doing right now. Focusing on the short term profits at the cost of long term gains; resulting in ever shorter and shorter term thinking that often burns bridges and burns out customers. All until they finally tip things over and the bubble bursts. In GW's case that was when AoS launched and it was very clear that they made a slew of wrong choices and that isolation from the actual buying public as well as other marketing and management choices; had walked them down a very very wrong path.
In DnD's case we saw it when they tried ot take away the open licence
In the case of MTG they are still going strong, but the signs are there and already they did a whole "15cards for $1000" (or it might have been more than 15 but it wasn't many) which was a daftness. They are still going strong and in the milking phase; but still making choices that could result in them burning out.
I came across a new-to-me term recently which I think may well apply to some of the companies that are behaving this way, which is "trust thermocline."
In essence, as your customer base feels hard done by, they'll grumble, but sales will remain largely unaffected. However, if those objections go unaddressed, they accumulate and sales will suddenly begin to drop off rapidly. It was the opinion of the guy writing the article that once that process begins, it's irreversible, and the best that can be hoped for is to arrest the fall before you hit the bottom. But it's never one thing, it's always an accumulation.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
nou wrote: Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something".
I'm not sure that debt policies really had much to do with it. Covid was a bump for most hobby companies, because a lot of people were stuck at home and wound up spending more money on hobby products as a result.
That is not as easy as that. The biggest bump because of COVID entertainment spendings was in mobile games (as a graphic designer I hugely benefited from this), because of independency of this kind of production on anything material. But many smaller physical gaming companies, like e.g. Awaken Realms struggled to survive due to shipping prices hike alone (nearly 1000% hike in cost of sea shipping containers). There was a room to grow created by COVID, yes, but the ability of GW to seize it was due to huge financial stability they have due to no debt policy. In other words - they had the room to not care, that the world was going down in flames.
This is true. I know a good few smaller firms shut down even when they were allowed to operate simply because they couldn't function. Either they couldn't get materials in or afford the increased costs to do business and shipping. Quite a few pulled in international orders because it was just insane to send stuff overseas. Even if customers could afford it the chances of packages getting stuck for utterly ages and being lost in the system was very high. This is the time where post offices had literal seas of packages undelivered and lasting for months at a time. That's a huge problem when customers come wnating a refund because the parcel hasn't arrived in weeks.
The healthy ones used the time to work on infrastructure; investing into growing or fixing things that needed fixing or improving. Much like how some cafes and pubs did new instalments of facilities and such.
Hobby spending was very healthy for "at home" hobbies, but at the same time many firms could not capitalise.
Of course some others did in the wrong ways - those exercise bikes with TV screens over-invested in infrastructure and killed themsleves when the bubble burst. Which is the other side of the coin and a big reason why I think we haven't seen GW invest in another new factory. That Covid bubble was going to burst, even if it left GW with more customers after. Heck we did see their share price drop down because they stopped being the rising star that was not sustainable
Azreal13 wrote: Once more, and for the last time, both what is asserted by the guys in the video and the GW financial reports for the equivalent period can be true.
I am not, and, go back and look, never have, disputed the veracity of the end of year reports.
They can't both be true due to many of the things MDG listed above, but one in particular, who you and your side of the argument undervalue greatly.
GW had no to little debt.
4-6 weeks of liquidity left is not the same thing as 4-6 weeks to bankruptcy. Liquidity crisis can only be deadly if, and only if, you can't get a short term loan from anywhere, usually because you're drowning in debt already. Public company the size of GW, with their IP, with audited financial reports clean as theirs were, can go and get such a loan literaly anywhere they like. What is more - GW, even back then, would be welcomed in any investment bank in the world if they ever wanted to change their finance model from their self-financed-growth to growth-from-perpetual-debt. Companies with such healthy finances as GW has, had and will have as long as they are dominantly self-financed, have years long eventual downward spirals ahead of them.
This whole thread is just a haters wet dream and nothing else. And yes, two guys, even insiders, talking on the podcast about topics they were not responsible for, and which are completely outside their areas of expertise, are not even in the same league of credibility as official financial reports of public company.
Given the context I more or less took that to be what was intended? We have 4-6 weeks until we have to shut the doors unless we do something.
Much like all of the credible arguments at the time were GW is going to go out of business unless they do something.
You also have to remember that we're taking 8 or so years ago here, end phase Kirby, very early Rountree. Before the COVID bump, before share prices in double figures. GW showed flat to negative growth in this period too, albeit while maintaining a profit and paying a dividend.
There's also the question of the £15m that Peachy mentions, now that could represent a variety of things, but, if true, that represents about 20% of GW's annual turnover at the time.
So while, fundamentally, I agree, if things hadn't transpired as they have, they'd have probably found another solution, GW were, at the time, a shrinking company with a notable liability and, because they don't borrow, no track record for credit. Plus, of course, anything you borrow you have to pay back, and if you're looking at flat to falling sales forecasts that may not fill an accountant with optimism.
Ultimately, it's all hypothetical of course because they did turn things around, I simply found it interesting to hear from what I assumed would be trusted sources how close to needing to take serious action they actually were. But I appear to have stepped on ak ideological landmine in the process.
Track record of credit is only a concern of individuals asking banks for loans, not public companies going out in search for a liquidity loan. And you even underline, that they were still making profit back then. Popular "no growth equals imminent doom" mentality is clouding your judgement here. Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something". The event we're debating over in this thread was really small, and moreover, very common short term liquidity problem, not a bankruptcy perspective. "Unless we do something" back then was more like "unless we do literalily anything else apart of running around with our hands in the air, screaming".
So we agree that if they had actually run out of money then they had options? You're right of course, multinationals don't have a credit history per se, but equally a company that trumpets about never borrowing asking for a loan isn't a check in the "pros" column for a potential lender either. Let me be clear, I'm in no way suggesting GW wouldn't have been able to borrow their way out if needs be, simply that they weren't quite as appealing back then as they would be now.
The remarkable part, to me, is how close this apparently healthy company came to needing to, and how closely it echoes what some people were saying at the time.
Again - liquidity problems =/= imminent bankruptcy. Both the studio I work in, and my wifes company had liquidity problems in times of steady growth because of client payments hickups, too rapid investing (not the same as overinvesting), sudden unexpected spendings or all of the above mixed. GW needing a liquidity loan to pay dividend is not a sign of being close to bancruptcy. It is a sign of mismanagement, yes, because someone up there did not pay enough attention to due dates and the margin of operation was too low. But again, typical companies operate on permanent debt and simply because GW does not, they have a huge upper hand. It also means, that they are a tax paying cow, so nobody will let them fall so easily. I don't know if the following is true in UK, but here in Poland, self-financing is often considered a bad practice, because credit cost is lower than taxes. Yes, that is correct, it is cheaper to operate on perpetual debt, than it is to operate with taxable profit.
2023/07/13 00:25:26
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
It's really disappointing to see the direction the conversation here has gone. It was a genuinely interesting podcast with some real insight about why GW operates the way it does. The video title is something they joke about in the show. As for the contentious topic it's worth pointing out that the info about GW being in trouble was a throwaway comment early in the show.
If you look at the actual data GW's profits were at their lowest ebb in 2014 and they had an exceptional cost of £4.5 million that year. A lot of retail businesses lose money for 9 months of the year but make all their profit from Christmas shopping. It is not unbelievable to imagine that a sudden bill for £4.5 million might have put gw in a bit of a hole for a while before Christmas shopping dug them out of it.
The interview is full of interesting tidbits like why GW boxes are the size and shape they are. I really do recommend watching the whole thing. It's just a shame the plasma gun hair dryer never saw the light of day.
2023/07/13 00:26:01
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: Ultimately, it's all hypothetical of course because they did turn things around, I simply found it interesting to hear from what I assumed would be trusted sources how close to needing to take serious action they actually were. But I appear to have stepped on ak ideological landmine in the process.
It's interesting to see this information crop up and revist some older threads and debates such as the one I posted above. A lot of people at the time were pointing out that the then path GW was taking was not sustainable and was likely to cause problems. Seems a few commentors were a lot closer to the mark than they thought.
Yeah its scary to think of how GW were at the end of the Kirby days.
In a way they were doing some of what Magic the Gathering and DnD are doing right now. Focusing on the short term profits at the cost of long term gains; resulting in ever shorter and shorter term thinking that often burns bridges and burns out customers. All until they finally tip things over and the bubble bursts. In GW's case that was when AoS launched and it was very clear that they made a slew of wrong choices and that isolation from the actual buying public as well as other marketing and management choices; had walked them down a very very wrong path.
In DnD's case we saw it when they tried ot take away the open licence
In the case of MTG they are still going strong, but the signs are there and already they did a whole "15cards for $1000" (or it might have been more than 15 but it wasn't many) which was a daftness. They are still going strong and in the milking phase; but still making choices that could result in them burning out.
I came across a new-to-me term recently which I think may well apply to some of the companies that are behaving this way, which is "trust thermocline."
In essence, as your customer base feels hard done by, they'll grumble, but sales will remain largely unaffected. However, if those objections go unaddressed, they accumulate and sales will suddenly begin to drop off rapidly. It was the opinion of the guy writing the article that once that process begins, it's irreversible, and the best that can be hoped for is to arrest the fall before you hit the bottom. But it's never one thing, it's always an accumulation.
Privateer Press I think is a very clear example of this latter point. They fell from being second to GW to now being honestly very tiny and strained.
It wasn't one thing but many things and some of them were indeed long lasting complaints such as their issues with shipping and soforth.
It's very rarely one thing that kills a business, but as you say a series of mistakes, bad choices, situations and such. Each one could be resolved and each one isn't a huge disaster on its own - but they do all add up.
I would add another layer which is that another death-nail is when a firm stops recruiting newblood. Esp a hobby firm ,but any really that stops getting fresh customers in and relies on an established customer base only. Unless you are an insanely big market leader; the moment you stop gaining customers; and you rely on sustaining yourself in established ones; is the time that you're at risk. Because those existing customers will only ever dwindle. Be it to drifting away; complaints unresolved; trying out other things; old age; shifting finances - whatever the reason its a slow death.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Chikout wrote: It's really disappointing to see the direction the conversation here has gone. It was a genuinely interesting podcast with some real insight about why GW operates the way it does. The video title is something they joke about in the show. As for the contentious topic it's worth pointing out that the info about GW being in trouble was a throwaway comment early in the show.
If you look at the actual data GW's profits were at their lowest ebb in 2014 and they had an exceptional cost of £4.5 million that year. A lot of retail businesses lose money for 9 months of the year but make all their profit from Christmas shopping. It is not unbelievable to imagine that a sudden bill for £4.5 million might have put gw in a bit of a hole for a while before Christmas shopping dug them out of it.
The interview is full of interesting tidbits like why GW boxes are the size and shape they are. I really do recommend watching the whole thing. It's just a shame the plasma gun hair dryer never saw the light of day.
I think the interview deserves its own thread. This thread is really about one part of it and one niche aspect taken out and hyper-focused on.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 00:27:00
I would add another layer which is that another death-nail is when a firm stops recruiting newblood. Esp a hobby firm ,but any really that stops getting fresh customers in and relies on an established customer base only. Unless you are an insanely big market leader; the moment you stop gaining customers; and you rely on sustaining yourself in established ones; is the time that you're at risk. Because those existing customers will only ever dwindle. Be it to drifting away; complaints unresolved; trying out other things; old age; shifting finances - whatever the reason its a slow death.
Which, very neatly, is something they talk about at length in the video and how that was a fundamental cause of GWs lack of growth.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 00:28:29
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
nou wrote: Ask yourself this - why COVID was not only not a problem for GW, but a bump? The answer is exactly the same, as in the thread subject case - because they mantain very strict "no debt" policy, then in times of smaller or bigger crisis they have all the room in the world to "unless we do something".
I'm not sure that debt policies really had much to do with it. Covid was a bump for most hobby companies, because a lot of people were stuck at home and wound up spending more money on hobby products as a result.
That is not as easy as that. The biggest bump because of COVID entertainment spendings was in mobile games (as a graphic designer I hugely benefited from this), because of independency of this kind of production on anything material. But many smaller physical gaming companies, like e.g. Awaken Realms struggled to survive due to shipping prices hike alone (nearly 1000% hike in cost of sea shipping containers). There was a room to grow created by COVID, yes, but the ability of GW to seize it was due to huge financial stability they have due to no debt policy. In other words - they had the room to not care, that the world was going down in flames.
This is true. I know a good few smaller firms shut down even when they were allowed to operate simply because they couldn't function. Either they couldn't get materials in or afford the increased costs to do business and shipping. Quite a few pulled in international orders because it was just insane to send stuff overseas. Even if customers could afford it the chances of packages getting stuck for utterly ages and being lost in the system was very high. This is the time where post offices had literal seas of packages undelivered and lasting for months at a time. That's a huge problem when customers come wnating a refund because the parcel hasn't arrived in weeks.
The healthy ones used the time to work on infrastructure; investing into growing or fixing things that needed fixing or improving. Much like how some cafes and pubs did new instalments of facilities and such.
Hobby spending was very healthy for "at home" hobbies, but at the same time many firms could not capitalise.
Of course some others did in the wrong ways - those exercise bikes with TV screens over-invested in infrastructure and killed themsleves when the bubble burst. Which is the other side of the coin and a big reason why I think we haven't seen GW invest in another new factory. That Covid bubble was going to burst, even if it left GW with more customers after. Heck we did see their share price drop down because they stopped being the rising star that was not sustainable
Awaken Realms mentioned above had an open Kickstarter I backed - Etherfields. Second wave was delayed and the cost of shipping went up so much, that according to Awaken Realms themselves, it ate entire profit from this Kickstarter and they asked customers for "tipping" them for an extra token add-on. They survived due to the same policy of keeping away from debt as much as they can, but they came close.
2023/07/13 01:23:05
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
H.B.M.C. wrote: Could be worse. Could be a company that does new Kickstarters so they can pay for the previous Kickstater, stuck on an endless downward spiral.
IIRC, that was what brought TSR down, basically. Releasing a new sourcebook so its profits would pay the printers for the previous sourcebook. It was when stores/distributors returned several unsold printruns all at once that all the bills came due and TSR didn't have the money.
"Through the darkness of future past, the magician longs to see.
One chants out between two worlds: Fire, walk with me." - Twin Peaks
"You listen to me. While I will admit to a certain cynicism, the fact is that I am a naysayer and hatchetman in the fight against violence. I pride myself in taking a punch and I'll gladly take another because I choose to live my life in the company of Gandhi and King. My concerns are global. I reject absolutely revenge, aggression, and retaliation. The foundation of such a method... is love. I love you Sheriff Truman." - Twin Peaks
2023/07/13 08:39:55
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
H.B.M.C. wrote: Could be worse. Could be a company that does new Kickstarters so they can pay for the previous Kickstater, stuck on an endless downward spiral.
IIRC, that was what brought TSR down, basically. Releasing a new sourcebook so its profits would pay the printers for the previous sourcebook. It was when stores/distributors returned several unsold printruns all at once that all the bills came due and TSR didn't have the money.
KS grew on steep discounts. Super cheap product flooding the market.
Now I see more companies pulling back on that if the product is intended for the retail market because they've realised that undercutting the price for the retailer and flooding the market at the same time results in a death period after the KS fulfils where the market is satisfied with the product. Even if its something like a wargame where people will want more; many of the top buyers are burned out having just got a mountain of models. So they aren't rushing to the shops to buy and when the yare they are buying less because "Ohh this price is way higher I might wait till they do another KS" etc...
So I've seen more steadily reducing that insane deal unless its a product intended just to fund through the KS and then have either no or a limited retail shelf life.
H.B.M.C. wrote: Could be worse. Could be a company that does new Kickstarters so they can pay for the previous Kickstater, stuck on an endless downward spiral.
IIRC, that was what brought TSR down, basically. Releasing a new sourcebook so its profits would pay the printers for the previous sourcebook. It was when stores/distributors returned several unsold printruns all at once that all the bills came due and TSR didn't have the money.
It's what's called the Anna Karenina principle: while all functional enterprises fundamentally work the same (more money in than out, chiefly) there are about a million ways to tank a company, and almost everyone has been tried at least once
2023/07/13 08:41:55
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
I would add another layer which is that another death-nail is when a firm stops recruiting newblood. Esp a hobby firm ,but any really that stops getting fresh customers in and relies on an established customer base only. Unless you are an insanely big market leader; the moment you stop gaining customers; and you rely on sustaining yourself in established ones; is the time that you're at risk. Because those existing customers will only ever dwindle. Be it to drifting away; complaints unresolved; trying out other things; old age; shifting finances - whatever the reason its a slow death.
Which, very neatly, is something they talk about at length in the video and how that was a fundamental cause of GWs lack of growth.
Yep, I believe also that that was the time when even the staff training, at least for the USA if I recall right, was focused on the newbie and when GW was shunning the old/established player. I believe the running theory was that GW were maximising on the idea of new people buying in and spending a lot and thereafter considered long term customers after their buy-in-period as a dead duck as their buying power (on average) reduced or even went to 0. A viewpoint, again like many I feel, born of looking at the sales numbers in an office and not looking at the customers to realise that those oldies who weren't buying (or indeed any customers who weren't) but who were playing; WERE a market that was vaible to keep around because they were running the clubs; providing games and soforth for the new buyers.
"Don't worry, we can just borrow more money" wouldn't be what I'd want my finance director to say.
Its entirely possible if GW already had £15m debt that banks might start getting nervous. Unit sales down, prices rising for at best the same (possibly slightly less) revenue. Whether banks would care is an open question but chatter on AoS is extremely hostile. Manufacturers generally don't want to be as geared as some other businesses due to the perceived higher risk/swing on sales. Profits are there for now, but may disappear quickly if the company were servicing more debt.
There's a difference in cash flow hits due to say slow payment by customers and because you are struggling to sell inventory. Maybe people are just "done" with GW products?
Clearly GW didn't go bust and dramatically turned the corner. But that doesn't automatically mean there weren't a lot of crisis meetings as suggested in the video.
2023/07/13 10:41:28
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
What is interesting for me about this thread is the sheer *anger* and knives out, straight for the throat for the OP. I don't know why people feel the need to be so voracious about it. Even if the claims are bollocks, you have to look at the source and this isn't just a spiky bits article from an undisclosed source, and there is no need to make it personal over a multi-million $$$ corporation.
My own thoughts on it are that GW is in a far better place now than it was back then. Thinking back to the early 10s (which I guess could have had the financial knock-on to the period being discussed) I think there is a propensity to forget just quite how bad things were, certainly from a customer perspective. I believe on this very forum either 2010 or 2011 was dubbed 'the summer of terror' as GW seemed to fly in ever decreasing circles with its product range and declare war on its customers with one miss-step after another. Have a look at threads back then and N&R was filled with people bitching. So from that perspective, I don't know how much fo an impact that had on sales, but it has much more of a ring of truth to it than had this been about the mid 00's or even much more recently, where obviously things have improved a great deal, both for GW financially and for us as customers.
Pacific wrote: What is interesting for me about this thread is the sheer *anger* and knives out, straight for the throat for the OP. I don't know why people feel the need to be so voracious about it.
It's not that hard to understand: the thread is fundamentally about an issue that was hotly debated at that time, with lots of bad blood, namecalling and even people developping grudges that persist to this day (childish, but it is what it is - look into any current twitch stream that includes TOW news, and watch people being still bitter and going for each others throats about 'AoS killing WHFB', completely going from 0 to 100 in seconds and without any prompt). And the opening post, as well as the title, are more or less perfectly formulated to fan the flames of that old conflict again: 'Doomsayers were right after all' is literally in the title, as if this thread was aimed to pick up the conflict where it was, almost a decade ago. It's bait, and many people can't resist taking it.
2023/07/13 11:03:24
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Add to that modern PR customer relationships, having far more in common with cults than an actual custommer company relationship and you get people that are highly attached to an uncaring corporate moloch.
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
2023/07/13 11:08:16
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Not Online!!! wrote: Add to that modern PR customer relationships, having far more in common with cults than an actual custommer company relationship and you get people that are highly attached to an uncaring corporate moloch.
Yeah, that too. People get into parasocial relationships with brands, and the result is not pretty.
2023/07/13 11:08:40
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
I recall those days where you used to wait until Friday night at around midnight UK time to then go look at the NZ GW webstore to see what were that weeks new releases. Where rumours and leaks were the only advanced info on new upcoming models and where GW was starting to send out CD letters to everyone - even news and forums (I think) got nasty letters when they were posting rumours.
It was a time when GW was not really caring about their long term fans; pulling back out of running or sponsoring events; hated the internet and was making a lot of wrong choices that would have sunk smaller firms.
The turn around when Kirby left and Roundtree took over was massive.
There was some good though. I'd argue that the choice GW made allowed their dominance to waver. It didn't destroy their dominance, but I think it did open the market up for smaller firms to get a foothold and establish themselves. I think it helped the market in general broaden and that's been maintained through to now even though GW have very firmly re-established their market dominance.
I think the next big phase will be when smaller firms (or basically firms other than GW) can push recruitment outside of established wargamers/hobbyists. Right now there's still a heavy reliance in many regions on GW being the gateway.
Granted I think that also goes hand in hand with the general hostility of the government to allowing highstreets to work which means unless you're a very big game store or basically a restaurant/cafe with games then its very hard to function (and means they are much more likely to lean into high profit card sales over wargames)
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Not Online!!! wrote: Add to that modern PR customer relationships, having far more in common with cults than an actual custommer company relationship and you get people that are highly attached to an uncaring corporate moloch.
I don't think its even modern. I recall brand cults way back in the 90s
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 11:09:19
Gert wrote: And there are people that are attached to hating that company at all times who gleefully drink in bad news and rub it it peoples faces.
Nobody is blameless and both sides of this discussion have acted childishly and have deliberately looked for arguments.
Yeah, the fault in this lies with the community as a whole, and its inability to have a civilized discussion. It's not enough to enjoy the stuff you like personally, other people have to acknowledge its superiority too, and have to hate what you hate
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 11:12:22
2023/07/13 11:13:33
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Modern in a historical sense. Afterall monopolies needed justification, always have.
hence why not copy the methods that are proven to work very successfully.
Granted the 90's been positively tame, compared to nowadays with the common constant social media bombardment.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Gert wrote: And there are people that are attached to hating that company at all times who gleefully drink in bad news and rub it it peoples faces.
Nobody is blameless and both sides of this discussion have acted childishly and have deliberately looked for arguments.
honestly i think it's more caused by the way that GW attempts to insulate it's hobbiests from the rest of TG hobbies.
And by extention those that drop out of that, due to ... questionable desicions on gw's behalf suddendly get confronted with a far wider and more creative hobby, only to be frustrated by GW itself due to GW once being part of that too.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/13 11:17:28
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
2023/07/13 12:33:41
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
I don't think GW tries to insulate in any way other than GW just acts like every other firm in that their marketing only talks about their product and their views and their stuff. Because that's what marketing is.
Like all fandoms be it music, games, football or whatever a VAST majority of the "cult" like behaviour is purely down to how people act and choose to behave.
Heck go back and Football Hooligans were highly organised highly violent gangs. It has zero connection to footballs marketing, or team stuff; but it was 100% there. Even today you can get big fights between rival fan groups of different teams.
It's a human thing not a marketing thing and often behaviour that's discouraged by those engaged in the teams.
Same as how GW doesn't encourage you to go beat up Mantic fans. GW will never market Mantic games, but they don't want you to fight horrifically with the fans of the game and like as not many GW staff do and have collected those models from other ranges.
This is purely an element of how communities choose to behave and how community leaders tolerate and encourage certain kinds of behaviour. When it comes ot the internet its a bit more muddled because you can just go and become a community leader on your own site and encourage the behaviour you want.
There's also an element of trolling in that some people just like to argue, fight or otherwise start trouble. Especially online where it "doesn't matter its just words" and stuff like that.
Plus nothing gets an online conversation going than some controversy or argument.
Chikout wrote: It's really disappointing to see the direction the conversation here has gone. It was a genuinely interesting podcast with some real insight about why GW operates the way it does. The video title is something they joke about in the show. As for the contentious topic it's worth pointing out that the info about GW being in trouble was a throwaway comment early in the show.
If you look at the actual data GW's profits were at their lowest ebb in 2014 and they had an exceptional cost of £4.5 million that year. A lot of retail businesses lose money for 9 months of the year but make all their profit from Christmas shopping. It is not unbelievable to imagine that a sudden bill for £4.5 million might have put gw in a bit of a hole for a while before Christmas shopping dug them out of it.
The interview is full of interesting tidbits like why GW boxes are the size and shape they are. I really do recommend watching the whole thing. It's just a shame the plasma gun hair dryer never saw the light of day.
That's the problem with clickbait. It definitely works and gets people to click on whatever content its baiting regardless of quality. The problem is so much clickbait leads to terrible content that's entirely dependent on the clickbait that people build up a resistance and those people are going to judge you based on the wild claims being made in your headline rather than engage with any substance you actually provide. Boy cried wolf and all that, though in the case of YouTube its like a whole town trying to cry wolf the loudest.
2023/07/13 14:03:56
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Gert wrote: And there are people that are attached to hating that company at all times who gleefully drink in bad news and rub it it peoples faces.
Nobody is blameless and both sides of this discussion have acted childishly and have deliberately looked for arguments.
If you consider rejecting a claim that a successful, IP rich, profit marking organisation was 4-6 weeks away from going bankrupt due to a cashflow issue, when people have already stated numerous avenues for them to resolve the issue with only moderate pain, to be 'childish' then I guess it was. It simply doesn't hold up to any scrutiny with the evidence at hand. GW was not a 10 person SME nor a staggering ailing company that had leveraged itself to the hilt and sold off all it's assets. Ignoring the potential of serious fraud, those are the kinds of companies that get killed by cashflow issues.
2023/07/13 15:02:50
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Kalamadea wrote: Watched it while painting the other night, I found it really fascinating
I tend to do the same.
The Painting Phase is a solid youtube channel. I particularly liked the episode about the who/what/why of killing WHFB.
Would you happen to have a link or remember the specific title?
"Sometimes the only victory possible is to keep your opponent from winning." - The Emperor, from The Outcast Dead.
"Tell your gods we are coming for them, and that their realms will burn as ours did." -Thostos Bladestorm
