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Fair enough

Personally the only thing I am interested in with this boxset is the 40 marines and the normal Praetor. The Dreadnought is literally just a bigger Leviathan. Turret is very boring. Saturine Terminators look terrible, as does the Saturine Praetor, and I've no interest in the 3.0 rules at all. Even at £125, I am largely untempted.

Darkpshere are also matching the discount and dropping prices.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

rich1231 wrote:
Hi everyone,

Love the engagement and much appreciated.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

A single store has offered a deeper discount than normal for a boxed set which, being an ongoing stock item cannot sell out. Therefore……that’s a sign the game is a dud.

No one here has concluded the game is a dud. Insane strawman. People have said that one major store appears to be having problems with Saturnine demand, and allowed people to make their own deductive conclusions about what that might mean for other stores and wider demand.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

And yet…..the four I buy from with varying regularity and preference haven’t.

Irrelevant. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Beyond that basic logical truth, not every store struggling with demand will react with an extra discount. In a landscape of soft demand many stores will still be able to absorb the loss and/or keep the product in stock forever until it sells for what they originally wanted. Or until they change their mind and discount it.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
What’s more likely? Wayland may have over ordered. Wayland might be trying to steal a march and future sales with a deeper discount. Or the game isn’t selling anywhere ever, despite other large online suppliers not deepening their discount?

There are of course other possibilities (maybe Wayland is somehow deep in the financial poop, and need a swift return is an out there, unsupported but ultimately possible explanation) I’ve not covered.

Untrue. It is not more likely that Wayland over-ordered or are in paralyzing secret deep. That conclusion depends on you assigning incompetence to them for which their is no evidence (despite your ratlike attempt to question their competence by referring to some apparent webstore issue from 10+ years ago).

Beyond that untruth, no one has said the game isn't selling anywhere. You are continuing to over-correct in an inexplicable effort to defend the health of this game.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Right. But you’re still not covering all the bases.

How many did GW make? How many did Wayland order? How many has Wayland sold on pre-order? What about the other online discount sellers?

We don’t know. And we’ll never know.
...
I’m happy to admit I’m wrong on these things, if and/or when better and greater information is available. But I’m confident the Droop Group will just flounce away on to the next moan, like nothing ever happened.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

What we’d need for any kind of accurate comparison are the production and sales numbers for 2nd and 3rd Ed.

But we’re simply never going to have those. Ever. From anyone. Except some Johnny No-Stars off of out of The Internet, who should be considered entirely suspect unless they can name, verify and evidence their source.

And so, our only conclusion? Is that GW have produced More Than Enough.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

We can conclude nothing.

There are many possible reasons why Wayland might’ve increase their discount. I’ve suggested some possibilities, and hopefully made it clear those were by no means the only possibilities.

But we’ve Bad Faith Actors in this very thread desperate to pretend their claim isn’t only The Truth, but The Only Possibility.

Again, I’m perfectly happy to be wrong, should further evidence and information come to light. Will the Droop Group do so? No. They’ll just slink off into the peanut gallery once again. Because their only interest appears to be hating a company which doesn’t even know or care that they exist, any more than said company knows or cares that I exist.

Quite easy to see your dishonest rhetoric here (and how you're the Worst Faith person on any side of this discussion). Your MO is to ask for impossible evidence (like GW production and sales numbers, or exhaustive private information about a single store) and then to say, "I'm a totally reasonable guy who'd change his totally reasonable opinion if you could only provide me with this impossible-to-acquire evidence." Except you already know your standard of evidence is bullshiit. You also hold any number of opinions that do satisfy that standard of evidence.

By your (knowingly fake ass) standard of evidence we cannot determine that, say, Warhammer Fantasy didn't sell well. We can't see GW's raw internal numbers, guess we can never know for sure!

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

Certainly as a trend, GW seem to have had fewer stock issues in recent months compared to recent history, going back to Indomitus.

Untrue/unproveable. You're just saying stuff you didn't verify in any way. Interesting that tons of extant HH products are still impossible to buy at the moment, though.




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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
If we take it at face value. Apologies, but career has made me a suspicious Bar Steward.

Ladies and gentlemen, The Most Skeptical Man In Wargaming (except when GW does something).

Pick a lane, learn how to evidence, then learn how to debate.

You’ve contradicted yourself at least twice there. I pointed out certain data points and evidence will never be available to us mere smelly plebs. You then base your entire claim on those, and say I’m wrong because I can’t provide them. Try. Harder. Or at least as hard as you can.

And yes. I’m incredibly skeptical, due to career. Hence I’ll continually call you out on your cherry picking bs until the cow’s come home. Via the abattoir. Because that’s how unlikely it is your cows will ever come home. Sausages and Steaks don’t count.

But. Remember. I’m perfectly happy to be wrong (another professional courtesy to the wider world. And professionally, I have been initially wrong and so adapted my view to new facts).

You?

I doubt it.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:


You’ve contradicted yourself at least twice there. I pointed out certain data points and evidence will never be available to us mere smelly plebs. You then base your entire claim on those, and say I’m wrong because I can’t provide them. Try. Harder. Or at least as hard as you can.

Please tell me WHAT my entire claim is.

I count like 3-4 times in this conversation where you'd completely fabricated strawmen positions on behalf of the people you're scolding. "The game is a dud" etc.

Tell me what my claim is, as you understand it.

I admit to not paying too close attention to it, but when was the last time Wayland dropped to this sort of discount on a pre-order?
And we've now had a confirmation from the owner that its a combination of an overly large order and sales not meeting expectation, so not sure what else can be said on that matter.

Some products for Middle Earth and Legions Imperialis. While I left it too late to act on that box of lovely Solar Auxilia Infantry, even 20% discount is wonderful enough.

 Pacific wrote:
I admit to not paying too close attention to it, but when was the last time Wayland dropped to this sort of discount on a pre-order?
And we've now had a confirmation from the owner that its a combination of an overly large order and sales not meeting expectation, so not sure what else can be said on that matter.

I think it's funny that that confirmation will support both poles of the argument .

"Overzealous LGS orders too much stock"
vs.
"Experienced LGS sees less demand than expected"

edit: I have never heard of any store doing an extra discount, and in fact I thought that the allowable level of discount was governed by terms of trade with GW.

Dark Sphere is also hitting the 35% discount bandwagon, so I think its safe to say this isn't just an isolated issue. I know my locals are having trouble shifting their inventory.

 Lathe Biosas wrote:
Anyone seeing these discounts stateside?

US trade policy is much more restrictive than in the UK. I dont expect to see anyone advertising discounts like this here in the near term.

The large online discounters in Australia have the maximum allowed discount (21%) and they have plenty in stock for pre-order.

chaos0xomega wrote:
Dark Sphere is also hitting the 35% discount bandwagon, so I think its safe to say this isn't just an isolated issue. I know my locals are having trouble shifting their inventory.

 Lathe Biosas wrote:
Anyone seeing these discounts stateside?

US trade policy is much more restrictive than in the UK. I dont expect to see anyone advertising discounts like this here in the near term.

IIRC with the previous GW flops, rare though they are, the US got stuck with normal price for a fair while but then everywhere started dumping stuff at massive discounts for Black Friday(likely as loss-leaders to get people into/onto their stores), so perhaps you guys will be getting even nicer deals in a few months. I have seen a few US people online withdrawing their preorders once things started looking a bit wobbly hoping for just that outcome.

I'm not going to buy into the argument over whether there is any evidence that 3rd Edition is under-performing. It's still in its pre-release phase, for a start. But I would be amazed if the online furore over the 3rd Edition changes, together with the selective appeal of the Saturnine models, doesn't make some kind of a dent in GW's projected sales. I would also guess that the more limited appeal of the Saturnine models would be the most important factor, since only a minority of customers are really engaged with what goes in online and potential new Heresy players aren't going to care about lost units or options. By contrast, my recollection of 2nd Edition's release was that the reaction to the AoD boxed set was overwhelmingly positive - even non-Heresy players were excited about it when the first leaked photos appeared. A few die-hards grumbled about the inclusion of the Spartan kit, but it was generally regarded as a great start to a Heresy army. The new boxed set just doesn't have the same broad appeal; if the Saturnine aesthetic isn't to your taste then you probably aren't going to buy the box. Personally, I think the inclusion of the gun battery was a mistake, and it should have been some kind of cool vehicle (like a land speeder, or maybe a Sabre).

The good news from my local shop HH3 related?

Full order arrived today. Nothing missing. Everyone who pre-ordered stuff will get what they ordered. And the shop is happy with the lv of stock they ordered for the shelf.

So it's not all doom & gloom.

one thing to consider here is that this is now the first big HH release after GW split the lines with 40k

40k by itself is a magnitude bigger than anything else, even other GW games, and sales from other model lines are driven to a point by their demand for 40k
With the changes the past years, using anything smaller than a Primaris for Marines fall out of favour and selling Contemptors as alternatives to the classic Dread as well.
The 2nd edition box was appealing to 40k players to a point and being the smaller game this could have still been a larger amount of sales as expected

for the 3rd Edi box, it is missing a tank, if the gun platform would have used a Rhino chassis or would have been a Whirlwind, it would appeal more while at the same time the Saturnine design itself is too big to make it an "addition" for existing army (while it is fine as focus for a new army) from a collectors point (and a gun platform that looks flat compared to the Dread in the box doesn't look good in the shelf either)

add in that the 2nd Edi box looked good to start an army with it on its own, while the 3rd Edi box is much more something you want to split because of the very different design between the models (and for a lot of people it is easier to buy the half they want off ebay over trying to find someone who wants the other half or sell the stuff they don't want)

those are all things that influence sales without taking into account that 3rd Edition got a bad reputation and negative advertising from those who are sopposed to create hype

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
And yes. I’m incredibly skeptical, due to career.

And due to career, you just stop posting for a week after being wrong instead of acknowledging it in any way (they're not cutting units and options, guys)

It's possible for GW to fumble, we've seen it with the AoS 3 launch starter (discounted -30% by GW themselves, forcing retailers to match) and AoS 4 launch starter (giving palettes of it away for free)

You won't see Saturnine discounted by GW however, as unlike those boxes it's intended to be available for 3 years anyway.

 Dryaktylus wrote:

 Albertorius wrote:

All the books are 35% off too.

Not the German ones.

Well, atleast here german ones are discounted.

It's interesting that the community always proclaims one extreme or the other for these things. Either 'roaring success' or 'DoA', but in reality it will be something on a scale in between.

If you think 2nd edition came after a very long-lived original, had possibly one of the most iconic selection of minis (a mega box of beakies! - I knew of people that bought it with no intention to play the game) and as others have said it had a lot of crossover appeal. There was such a widespread excitement about the release.
This set, despite some lovely-looking minis, I think hasn't that wide appeal. It's also expensive, and the 3-year life cycle of 2nd edition I think caught a lot of people flat-footed. We know it has caused discord amongst the veteran gamers who play HH, some of whom favour of it for previously being a port in the storm from 40k's rapid turnover. Being told you cannot play with your toys (even though partially rectified afterwards), the rules being a word-salad and not easily accessible/frightening for newcomers, again I think will not have helped.

So I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say this box will not sell as well as AoD.. but the HH community is massive (I think dwarfing other specialist games, probably ToW too) and even with the splits in community that will result of this game, the game and box will still sell in relatively good volumes.

 Pacific wrote:
I admit to not paying too close attention to it, but when was the last time Wayland dropped to this sort of discount on a pre-order?
And we've now had a confirmation from the owner that its a combination of an overly large order and sales not meeting expectation, so not sure what else can be said on that matter.

It's the first time I've ever seen it, personally, and I use to buy from them.

Not saying it has never happened before, only that I've never seen it, on preorders.

Alchemist are on track to sell through 20% of their supposed allotment in the pre-order period, which to me seems very slow.

The other was already sold out at the start of 2.0

Dark Sphere sees Waylands 35% and raises with 30% on the entire HH-range.

... And meanwhile, I have to lament the fact Wayland doesn't ship to my place anymore. :|

Your move Wayland (I suggest 40% off everything storewide).

JWBS wrote:
Your move Wayland (I suggest 40% off everything storewide).

Hi my wallet has informed me that I have to serve you notice of court action due to you causing "Critical Emotional Distress and Abuse"

Alchemist have now reduced the price to £138 according to their website, although Saturnine is still showing at £150 on the actual item page.

So that's Wayland, Darksphere and Alchemist that have reduced their price during the pre order period.

Unprecedented

 Undead_Love-Machine wrote:
Alchemist have now reduced the price to £138 according to their website, although Saturnine is still showing at £150 on the actual item page.

So that's Wayland, Darksphere and Alchemist that have reduced their price during the pre order period.

Unprecedented

Are we there yet Mad Doc?

Not necessarily, no. We still only have online sellers having something of a price war.

We understand Wayland over ordered, but nothing to say Darksphere or Alchemists are doing anything other than keeping their pricing competitive.

Remember. I’ve not ruled anything out. My entire argument here is people are jumping to conclusions, and pretending there are no other possible explanations or factors.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Not necessarily, no. We still only have online sellers having something of a price war.

We understand Wayland over ordered, but nothing to say Darksphere or Alchemists are doing anything other than keeping their pricing competitive.

Remember. I’ve not ruled anything out. My entire argument here is people are jumping to conclusions, and pretending there are no other possible explanations or factors.

I'm not going to fundamentally poo-poo your stance, I'm just curious what you might want to see that could be considered a problem really.

Obviously your threshold is higher than mine, but how much higher I suppose is the question

Honestly? I don’t know.

Locally, I’ve a couple of FLGS. One tends to carry a small selection, typically one of each box as standard stock. The other barely carries anything. Tiny shop, TCG focussed, but can order in anything I want.

So neither of those can really provide me with anything useful in terms of data/evidence. If both sell out? Well, you’re talking maybe five or six big boxes between them.

If stuff languishes on the shelf? Might be a point in support of the naysayers. But it’s still anecdotal.

Local clubs might be more useful there. If nobody is playing? Nobody is playing. I’m in contact with a couple of different clubs, so if both lack 3rd Ed players? Again, could be a point in support of the naysayers.

But there are still factors the serial whiners can’t and won’t consider. It is an expensive box, and money is tight for many folks. That they’ve not bought right now doesn’t mean they’ve no intention of buying it in the future.

As I and others have speculated earlier, it could be that due to the contents, the box isn’t seen as attractive a prospect as the 2nd Ed box.