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Indeed it is, but still needs work to be done, but at this stage its obvious they learn fast and are committed in doing the necessary changes.

Well, for the moment, things look to have stabilised at the $8k a day mark, which could be seen as both positive and negative.

On the positive side, $8k a day is nothing to be sniffed at and given the remaining time for the project and the expected upswing in the last 48 hours should give us something to keep talking about. Provided the SG distance stays at $10k after the mecha is unlocked then we should see roughly four unlocks every five days, though the exact periods between these will depend on how the pledging lands and the update schedule from RH.

However, the low daily gain means that the next few unlocks are going to take some time (about three full days funding) to reach before we hit the next freebie at $350k. I'm mentioning the freebie as we're likely not going to see what it is until we reach this point and it's going to add value to pledge levels, where as the $330k and $350k paid add-on unlocks don't directly add extra value they just make more options available to backers. Whilst three days doesn't seem like that long, when you're measuring the life of a project in days to begin with anything over 36 hours starts feeling like a long time and drags things out. This could lead to people loosing interest and reducing their pledge or deciding that they're not as willing to put down money at this time and dropping it entirely. Whilst I don't think we are likely to see any negative pledge days there is always that risk as we get closer to the middle of the KS life with so much still to unlock.

At present there are 41 options still locked but detailed in the original images, 12 Jailbirds, 14 Kurganova and 15 Iron Empire. Whist this includes the three SGs that we currently have on the table
two of those are Jailbirds and the closer one is Kurganova, there's no Iron Empire updates for at least $34k, assuming that they have an unlock after the Jailbird mecha at $360k. The individual unlocks don't seem to be taking into account the fact that there are three factions and people may want to focus on a single faction.

If we work on the basis that after $360k the SG interval will remain $10k then there is a significant risk that not everything will be unlocked by the time the KS ends, let along anything new that RH has their guys working on as a precaution against blowing through everything and having nothing left to push in the last few days.

$8k a day gives us roughly $216k extra as we head into the final 24 hours. Based on current funding of $326,294 that gives us a total of $542,294, enough to have unlocked up to the mecha at $360k and then a further 18 SGs (assuming the $10k interval remains). So that's 3 unlocks, including the mecha, and a further 18 out of the 41. This leaves us with 20 unlocks to handle in the last 24 hours. Whilst $200k is doable, it depends how much interest there is in last minute pledge adjustments and how many new people appear after tracking the project to that point, it could worry people who're still waiting for a particular heroine or support option that they were after as part of their pledge reward.

Taking the above numbers further though, if we also assume that the freebie interval remains at $50k then we'll have had three more (on top of the $350k one) and be very close to the $550k freebie. Assuming that the remaining freebies will be heroines (preferably full ones rather than tank stoppers) that's an extra $40 of figures added onto pledge rewards and would start pushing people up from the pledge levels that don't get the freebies to those that do. This is all wild speculation at the moment, based off what limited numbers we've seen and the hope that the first freebie hasn't set a trend and we're going to see tank stoppers for the other two factions at $350k and $400k before moving onto something else at $450k.

I'm sure the people at RH are looking at the situation as well, with a view to making further tweaks and improvements as we move towards the end of the first week. The increased flexibility they've provided may give us a bit of an upswing from those who were initially put off by the more rigid system that was initially provided for pledge rewards. Though part of me can't help feeling that there's still something missing or not quite right with the current situation, I'm just not sure what that is at the moment.

Even if this one ended at 'only' $500K, it would still be quite successful.

But you certainly point out what many have been saying all along - at this pace, everything will not be 'unlocked' until the end, if then.

As well as the problem that exists if you're only wanting to collect a single faction, and having the other stretch goals 'get in the way', so to speak.

Given the trend for the last day to equal or exceed the first day, I'd be very surprised if this one didn't finish in the $800K to $1M range, especially as we near the end and the perceived 'value' of a pledge will certainly be higher than it is now.

The point of course is, all of us in this thread strive to see the project go better than this.

What is probably missing is that the individual purchases have yet to achieve a "sweet deal" status, making them more attractive than simply waiting for discounted retail.

The question is how to achieve it in such a free-form format, the majority of wargaming projects have a box and add to that, this is too freeform and while on units you can add an extra trooper or two, or a weapon option, on heroes or support needs a more elegant solution, maybe adding weapon options? maybe something else, the crucial point is increasing the value without decreasing the cost, because that would have the reverse effect.


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As an afterthought bundled deals could help in increasing the perceived value.

It's all an issue of expectations: is this a niche project, or a blockbuster?

Consider it like the box office of Star Trek: Into Darkness, where opening weekend it made $70 million, and this was considered disappointing. A disappointment because it failed to be as big a hit as the first Star Trek (reboot).

In my discursions in the previous days one will note my repeated mentions of the need for mega funding: but that need remains based in the $20-35k stretch goal unlocks and ~40 figures/units yet to reveal.

While we don't have no idea, we don't have the exact figure for what is the real minimum: the original SGs were $3-5k, which jibes with other campaigns that are doing metal figures puts them at.

Simply put, at $20k+ per SG, they need to make money by the barrel load every day to be a "success". At $3-5k they are already there.

It's fascinating really, the degree to which this project is either on easy street or in terrible trouble is entirely dependent on factors the creators control. Fascinating.

I think we'll see the last 24h exceed 200K. By a long shot. Since most EB "deals" were quickly snapped up, there was little reason for doubters to commit early, but I think there is still a lot of people out there that still want those minis. Game or not.

Who knows, snippets of rules might turn this around. It certainly got Deadzone people talking about it, at any rate.

 Mathieu Raymond wrote:
I think we'll see the last 24h exceed 200K. By a long shot. Since most EB "deals" were quickly snapped up, there was little reason for doubters to commit early, but I think there is still a lot of people out there that still want those minis. Game or not.

Who knows, snippets of rules might turn this around. It certainly got Deadzone people talking about it, at any rate.

I actually don't think any amount of rules would help this at all.

It's been said before, but I'll say it again, and echo this opinion...Backers of this KS are after the minis, not really anything else. They can be used in a dozen different systems and they are extremely nice.

I don't want a game system. I want these hot minis to give me new toys and options in; 40k, Infinity, Deadzone, Warzone, Necromunda, Warmachine, and every other 28mm-32mm system out there.

Buzz, again, strikes a true chord. There's no reason for the massive increase in stretches. That's where they should look to draw in more pledges.

While rules and a game system may intrigue some, I do not think the majority of the backers will be swayed by them.

The only real benefit I can see from them putting out bits of their planned game system in this KS would be to maybe persuade some people to increase their pledge if they're wanting a force that's X size or adding bits to have to Y sized forces.

Personally, I would rather this stay as a figures only KS (with some changes to the SGs and general handling) than have them try and shoehorn the rules into it as well. They'd probably benefit more from their own KS, after the other two that are currently planned by RH. Then they can tie everything together and also use the funds to fill in any gaps in the figure lines to balance them all out.

Did I miss (did I mention it was busy at our store?) discussion on the Kurganova Schok Troops WIP renders?

I'm... somewhat unimpressed. They seem very chunky. Maybe it is the material and I should be glad they are being made at all, or maybe restic shrinks them a bit once it's cast, so they need bigger masters... again if it has been discussed, can someone just point me to the page number?

The kurganova troop sculpts don't look too chunky to me. They actually look the way chicks in body armor should look to me. but that's all subjective. For a troop set of 5 models estimated at $20 retail, I think these will be great.

PsychoticStorm wrote:What is probably missing is that the individual purchases have yet to achieve a "sweet deal" status, making them more attractive than simply waiting for discounted retail.

Sweeter than up to 40% discount plus free miniatures?
Keep in mind this kickstarter is for us to finance RH's project, not for them to finance us.

Buzzsaw wrote:In my discursions in the previous days one will note my repeated mentions of the need for mega funding: but that need remains based in the $20-35k stretch goal unlocks and ~40 figures/units yet to reveal.

1.) Your theory, that unlock level steps are always the same, is obviously false even for the first 5 days.
2.) We are currently at a 10k $ step, at least for the third time.

Yeah, I have to say, if you want the $10 heroines, they are a pretty good deal. Looking around the internet, finding retailers that even CARRY Raging Heroes is proving tough. The Warstore has them, but only a 10% markdown.

Getting those $10 heroines is actually a pretty darn good deal. The $15 heroines aren't well knocked down, nor the troops/support. So if you are looking strictly for bang-for-buck, stick to the $10 heroines for the bulk of the pledge.

 Kroothawk wrote:
Sweeter than up to 40% discount plus free miniatures?

Since this is at least the third time I've seen someone say "up to 40% discount" can you point me to exactly which level this is at?

As far as I can tell, the top level pledge is at best, with rounding, at a 16% discount.

The 40% discount is compared to RPP and it's on the $10 heroines. They are listed as having a future RRP of $16.50. On the KS, at $10, that is a 40% discount, so grabbing these as the bulk of a pledge, you'll end up with more for your money compared to waiting for retail

 recruittons wrote:
The 40% discount is compared to RPP and it's on the $10 heroines. They are listed as having a future RRP of $16.50. On the KS, at $10, that is a 40% discount, so grabbing these as the bulk of a pledge, you'll end up with more for your money compared to waiting for retail

Ahhh, I see. That particular deal is a good deal and no wonder people were clamoring for Heroine Only pledges.

As someone who wants dozens and dozens of troops and only a few Heroes, then the deal isn't that sweet.

I agree. Troops are definitely not well discounted. Hopefully the pledge package improves enough to make it worthwhile though

recruittons wrote:Yeah, I have to say, if you want the $10 heroines, they are a pretty good deal. Looking around the internet, finding retailers that even CARRY Raging Heroes is proving tough. The Warstore has them, but only a 10% markdown.

Getting those $10 heroines is actually a pretty darn good deal. The $15 heroines aren't well knocked down, nor the troops/support. So if you are looking strictly for bang-for-buck, stick to the $10 heroines for the bulk of the pledge.

This is an excellent point, the discount numbers are so all over the place it's astounding. The $10 heroes are a great buy, most everything else...

Which glosses over something else: the MSRP for these is really high. And in many cases seems to have no internal logic: similar appearing figures fit into different price categories, different levels of discounts, yadda yadda.

This creates the problem that whatever the discount, the absolute price is quite high. Tre Manor is putting up $10 characters ($12 retail), but RH will have nothing at retail below $15? Uh, okay...

The discount must also be considered in light of the very long lead time. At up to a year, the simple fact is that from an actuarial standpoint, paying this far ahead is paying a premium. As they teach "Money today is worth more then money tomorrow"; when payment is so far ahead of delivery, a discount at a certain level only serves to normalize the price to retail. Presuming that these figures will be available at the usual suspects for a reasonable discount, all but the heavily discounted $10 heroes are, it can be considered, more expensive then they would be if bought in the usual course of business.

Given the extreme paucity of added value, it seems rather unclear why anyone would buy anything but the best deals.

 Kroothawk wrote:

Keep in mind this kickstarter is for us to finance RH's project, not for them to finance us.

Also keep in mind that this is essentially an interest-free loan. For a company that likely could not have secured anywhere near this kind of numbers in a traditional loan. Which is a very big deal.

~Eric

Kroothawk, I am impressed with your stance on this.

10$ hero models are 40%
15$ hero models are 17%
20$ hero models are 20%

15$ troops are 25% for jailbirds 17% for the others
20$ troops are 20% for the Lulus 16% for the others

15$ artillery are 30%
15$ bikes are 25%
30$ mecha are 17%

40% off is only if you select heavily on a single category other discounts are less, but my point is:

On the majority of the cases the retailer discount will be better or the same and heroes can be purchased by a backer so many times before they are left with nothing to buy, there needs to be an incentive for many backers to feel they need to pledge and pledge heavily in order to get a better deal than just wait, no don't say me if the project fails we will not have them ectr, I know it the bulk of backers for a project either does not realize it or do not care, they do care on getting a great deal.

For me the price does not need lowering it would be bad in my opinion, what you get for the price needs fixing.

@Buzzsaw: that is why I'm piggy-backing on someone else's pledge and just sticking to getting the 4-5 $10 heroines that I really want. It feels like it's the best possible way to get exactly what I want and not feel like I could regret what paid into the KS later (this is not a criticism of those who go big, but a statement of how much of a cheapskate I am ).

 Mathieu Raymond wrote:
Did I miss (did I mention it was busy at our store?) discussion on the Kurganova Schok Troops WIP renders?

I'm... somewhat unimpressed. They seem very chunky. Maybe it is the material and I should be glad they are being made at all, or maybe restic shrinks them a bit once it's cast, so they need bigger masters... again if it has been discussed, can someone just point me to the page number?

You missed the part where experts pointed to all the mind-blowing details on the not-Cadians that make them worth every penny and simply impossible to replicate in plastic.

Honestly, I was not impressed either, especially after all the comments about how this wasn't about rank and file, but the most amazing Show miniatures to hit the earth since God sculpted Adam. It kind of reminds me of the Studio McVey/Sedition Wars hype. Those were also released in restic; how did that turn out, again?

I think people really need to consider the medium here. If I were going heavy in this kickstarter, I'd probably only go for metal models since I know the quality those can achieve.

 Kroothawk wrote:

PsychoticStorm wrote:What is probably missing is that the individual purchases have yet to achieve a "sweet deal" status, making them more attractive than simply waiting for discounted retail.

Sweeter than up to 40% discount plus free miniatures?
Keep in mind this kickstarter is for us to finance RH's project, not for them to finance us.

Buzzsaw wrote:In my discursions in the previous days one will note my repeated mentions of the need for mega funding: but that need remains based in the $20-35k stretch goal unlocks and ~40 figures/units yet to reveal.

1.) Your theory, that unlock level steps are always the same, is obviously false even for the first 5 days.
2.) We are currently at a 10k $ step, at least for the third time.

It's not all 40%. It's disingenuous to suggest it is. Let's look at it assuming everything gets unlocked.

25 Heros at 39.4%
2 Heroes at 20%
11 Heroes at 16.7%
9 Support at 25%
3 Support at 14.3%
12 Support at 30.3%
4 Troops at 14.9%
4 Troops at 16.7%
2 Troops at 25%
1 Troop at 20%

By choice that's a 27.5% discount. With the vast majority of the heavy discount being on the hero choices and not the bulk units needed to build an army. Meaning the discount actually gets lower than 27.5% if your building an army since the average troop choice discount is 17.9%.

It's been said before but the purpose for many backers is to get something in return. I'm not going to apologize for wanting to get value for pre-ordering over a year in advance in a format that is so limited on ways to protect the money I put in. Currently the only value I see is in characters, and only the $10 ones at that.

1. He never said they are the same. Hell, the quote you quote shows a range. Take a breath.

Long story short they need to increase the value to bring more people in because unless they go to all 10k SG's everything isn't going to unlock.

People relatively frugal with their money will just wait for retail. What are the odds of the Warstore or something similar not carrying the product on launch? So by waiting I not only don't put my money at risk for a troop heavy army but also actually get a larger discount and much cheaper shipping.

 PsychoticStorm wrote:
Kroothawk, I am impressed with your stance on this.

10$ hero models are 40%
15$ hero models are 17%
20$ hero models are 20%

15$ troops are 25% for jailbirds 17% for the others
20$ troops are 20% for the Lulus 16% for the others

15$ artillery are 30%
15$ bikes are 25%
30$ mecha are 17%

40% off is only if you select heavily on a single category other discounts are less, but my point is:

On the majority of the cases the retailer discount will be better or the same and heroes can be purchased by a backer so many times before they are left with nothing to buy, there needs to be an incentive for many backers to feel they need to pledge and pledge heavily in order to get a better deal than just wait, no don't say me if the project fails we will not have them ectr, I know it the bulk of backers for a project either does not realize it or do not care, they do care on getting a great deal.

For me the price does not need lowering it would be bad in my opinion, what you get for the price needs fixing.

And on top of all that, as already noted, the ship date for these miniatures currently is March 2014.

So, there's that to consider too.

PsychoticStorm wrote:Kroothawk, I am impressed with your stance on this.

10$ hero models are 40%
15$ hero models are 17%
20$ hero models are 20%

15$ troops are 25% for jailbirds 17% for the others
20$ troops are 20% for the Lulus 16% for the others

15$ artillery are 30%
15$ bikes are 25%
30$ mecha are 17%

40% off is only if you select heavily on a single category other discounts are less, but my point is:

On the majority of the cases the retailer discount will be better or the same and heroes can be purchased by a backer so many times before they are left with nothing to buy, there needs to be an incentive for many backers to feel they need to pledge and pledge heavily in order to get a better deal than just wait, no don't say me if the project fails we will not have them ectr, I know it the bulk of backers for a project either does not realize it or do not care, they do care on getting a great deal.

For me the price does not need lowering it would be bad in my opinion, what you get for the price needs fixing.

An excellent evaluation, thank you for this.

recruittons wrote:@Buzzsaw: that is why I'm piggy-backing on someone else's pledge and just sticking to getting the 4-5 $10 heroines that I really want. It feels like it's the best possible way to get exactly what I want and not feel like I could regret what paid into the KS later (this is not a criticism of those who go big, but a statement of how much of a cheapskate I am ).

Hah! After Deadzone, with Red Box, Warriors of Darkmyre and Cthulu Wars all ending soon, I too feel the need for a bit of sugar to part with my filthy lucre.

Well Psycotic Storm beat me to it but I'm not taking mine down!

@Buzzsaw: Oh don't get me started on Cthulhu Wars! I've been tracking CW and RH to mentally compare how a big board game project with a similar start (however with little lead-up marketing) compares to a big minis only project. It's actually really interesting.

Personally, I'd love it if your post-mortum of RH (I believe you mentioned doing this, correct?) would compare it to CW because they will end simultaneously. You could compare creator comments, daily growth, update quantity, pre-project preparedness, etc.

Hulksmash wrote:Well Psycotic Storm beat me to it but I'm not taking mine down!

Heh, they both add some extra to the conversation.

recruittons wrote:@Buzzsaw: Oh don't get me started on Cthulhu Wars! I've been tracking CW and RH to mentally compare how a big board game project with a similar start (however with little lead-up marketing) compares to a big minis only project. It's actually really interesting.

Personally, I'd love it if your post-mortum of RH (I believe you mentioned doing this, correct?) would compare it to CW because they will end simultaneously. You could compare creator comments, daily growth, update quantity, pre-project preparedness, etc.

Oh, to be sure. It's intriguing how both of them launched so close with such explosive growth. It will be fascinating to watch them both progress and ultimately end within a day of each other!

 Buzzsaw wrote:


Which glosses over something else: the MSRP for these is really high. And in many cases seems to have no internal logic: similar appearing figures fit into different price categories, different levels of discounts, yadda yadda.

Actually, that's quite a good point that hadn't stuck out at me earlier. Though it's not out of keeping with the prices on their webstore, either. (The KS MSRP prices are slightly higher.) Firestorm games in the UK also carries RH, though it seems not with any discount.

http://www.ragingheroes.com/collections/complete-collection

 Taarnak wrote:

 Kroothawk wrote:

Keep in mind this kickstarter is for us to finance RH's project, not for them to finance us.

Also keep in mind that this is essentially an interest-free loan. For a company that likely could not have secured anywhere near this kind of numbers in a traditional loan. Which is a very big deal.

~Eric

Unfortunately, Kroot seems to have lost the sense of perspective that he usually has and is going Full-steam Raging (Heroes) Fan for some reason here. While I usually respect his posts, his bias is showing much too clearly here, and it's best to take most of what he says with a tablespoon of salt and ignore the posts where he goes off the deep end completely. Just the same as a few people tend to do in the Mantic threads.





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 PsychoticStorm wrote:

On the majority of the cases the retailer discount will be better or the same and heroes can be purchased by a backer so many times before they are left with nothing to buy, there needs to be an incentive for many backers to feel they need to pledge and pledge heavily in order to get a better deal than just wait, no don't say me if the project fails we will not have them ectr, I know it the bulk of backers for a project either does not realize it or do not care, they do care on getting a great deal.

Do you know of any online UK retailers that actually stock RH with a discount?

I think that the almost 1 year wait time is quite an important factor here. If I put those money into a stock market for this year and buy the items when they hit retail, one might actually make a better deal than "pre-ordering" them in this KS with a (potential) risk of not actually getting any items at all. Mmm...