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My county just issued a stay at home order AND a curfew - like what the hell is a curfew going to do? We're telling 400,000 people stay in their house for NINE cases, all but one of which were directly travel related and quarantined early. That means there was only one wild case, and given that the tests have an 80% false positive rate, there's a high likelihood of that one being bs as well.
So we just shut in half a million people on a 20% chance that one guy actually has it.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: So in Britain in the last few days, we've had, people robbing schools and nurseries for freezers, people robbing NHS workers for IDs, and people calling 999 to ask the police if they're allowed to leave their houses. Jesus were stupid.
I take it your police have issued the same idiotic decrees about how they will only be responding to certain egregious crimes and will be working at minimal capacity as many of the departments over here have?
in such situations one needs to CALL in all the manpower to maintain order. No quarter given until the people actually realise that they are beeing stupid, then send that manpower back again.
Do you have any idea how much manpower that would entail in a country as big and heavily armed as the United States? With vast swaths of poor rural areas? Here in Appalachia you generally only see a cop when either a local drug dealer fails to pay his "taxes" or shots are fired as is in areas like mine. Actual police protection around here is only for the wealthy. They only exist for the rest of us to enforce the property rights of said wealthy and the government.
First, guns per capita are here verifyably in the Level of texas. More likely more. So no guns have no impact alone.
Secondly depends on Terrain and how willing the state and institutions would be and how converted the Effort is, including Recruiting locals as auxilia etc.
The locals have no interest in being "auxilia". We've hated law enforcement since prohibition. Might work in Texas though.
I would have thought crime would go massively down with a lockdown order?
You mean when all those fully stocked stores and businesses that are just sitting there without guards or employees? Where it could be weeks before anyone comes back to check on them?
Sqorgar wrote: My county just issued a stay at home order AND a curfew - like what the hell is a curfew going to do? We're telling 400,000 people stay in their house for NINE cases, all but one of which were directly travel related and quarantined early. That means there was only one wild case, and given that the tests have an 80% false positive rate, there's a high likelihood of that one being bs as well.
So we just shut in half a million people on a 20% chance that one guy actually has it.
There is no way its 80% false positives, false negatives due to poor techniques of swabbing would technically be possible but not at that rate, they wouldn't do it, now I know they are not 100% accurate, but 80% false positive is not true and by that extrapolation the death rate would be much higher.
Sqorgar wrote: My county just issued a stay at home order AND a curfew - like what the hell is a curfew going to do? We're telling 400,000 people stay in their house for NINE cases, all but one of which were directly travel related and quarantined early. That means there was only one wild case, and given that the tests have an 80% false positive rate, there's a high likelihood of that one being bs as well.
So we just shut in half a million people on a 20% chance that one guy actually has it.
Yes but perhaps they are looking at the borders? It's not as if the USA has checkpoints at the state borders so with it clearly spreading through the USA perhaps their hope is to restrict travel and stop any spreading in from other sources as well.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: So in Britain in the last few days, we've had, people robbing schools and nurseries for freezers, people robbing NHS workers for IDs, and people calling 999 to ask the police if they're allowed to leave their houses. Jesus were stupid.
I take it your police have issued the same idiotic decrees about how they will only be responding to certain egregious crimes and will be working at minimal capacity as many of the departments over here have?
in such situations one needs to CALL in all the manpower to maintain order. No quarter given until the people actually realise that they are beeing stupid, then send that manpower back again.
Do you have any idea how much manpower that would entail in a country as big and heavily armed as the United States? With vast swaths of poor rural areas? Here in Appalachia you generally only see a cop when either a local drug dealer fails to pay his "taxes" or shots are fired as is in areas like mine. Actual police protection around here is only for the wealthy. They only exist for the rest of us to enforce the property rights of said wealthy and the government.
First, guns per capita are here verifyably in the Level of texas. More likely more. So no guns have no impact alone.
Secondly depends on Terrain and how willing the state and institutions would be and how converted the Effort is, including Recruiting locals as auxilia etc.
The locals have no interest in being "auxilia". We've hated law enforcement since prohibition. Might work in Texas though.
Well, money talks i doubt the monetary Situation would not motivite,further who said anything about "asking"
But this is just culture difference i guess
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/24 21:12:15
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
gorgon wrote: That's right. The governors will do what they think is right to protect their people.
Surely there is a line they can't cross, though? Should we allow governors to decide which surgeries are elective or non-life threatening and can't be performed? Shouldn't that be a risk assessment made by actual doctors and their patients? .
Right now that assessment is made by the insurance company. The governor would probably have the patients' wellbeing closer to his or her heart.
Sqorgar wrote: My county just issued a stay at home order AND a curfew - like what the hell is a curfew going to do? We're telling 400,000 people stay in their house for NINE cases, all but one of which were directly travel related and quarantined early. That means there was only one wild case, and given that the tests have an 80% false positive rate, there's a high likelihood of that one being bs as well.
So we just shut in half a million people on a 20% chance that one guy actually has it.
Remember how there were only 15 cases in the US, and now there are 50,000?
That's what the curfew is supposed to prevent. 1 case takes very little time to become thousands.
Yeah one week where you don't know you've got it (and thus spread it around like crazy with casual life in public); a highly infectious disease and then everyone you infect takes a week to show their infection so they spread it around too.
People travel a lot and all over the place. One person in your town might get it and pass it to a dozen other people. Then in turn might travel back home to a dozen different towns, which couldbe an hour away or more. Now its spread over a large area; larger still after a week spreading.
Sqorgar wrote: My county just issued a stay at home order AND a curfew - like what the hell is a curfew going to do? We're telling 400,000 people stay in their house for NINE cases, all but one of which were directly travel related and quarantined early. That means there was only one wild case, and given that the tests have an 80% false positive rate, there's a high likelihood of that one being bs as well.
So we just shut in half a million people on a 20% chance that one guy actually has it.
Did I miss something? Where are you seeing that there is an 80% false positive rate for testing?
There is no way its 80% false positives, false negatives due to poor techniques of swabbing would technically be possible but not at that rate, they wouldn't do it, now I know they are not 100% accurate, but 80% false positive is not true and by that extrapolation the death rate would be much higher.
When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: So in Britain in the last few days, we've had, people robbing schools and nurseries for freezers, people robbing NHS workers for IDs, and people calling 999 to ask the police if they're allowed to leave their houses. Jesus were stupid.
I take it your police have issued the same idiotic decrees about how they will only be responding to certain egregious crimes and will be working at minimal capacity as many of the departments over here have?
in such situations one needs to CALL in all the manpower to maintain order. No quarter given until the people actually realise that they are beeing stupid, then send that manpower back again.
Do you have any idea how much manpower that would entail in a country as big and heavily armed as the United States? With vast swaths of poor rural areas? Here in Appalachia you generally only see a cop when either a local drug dealer fails to pay his "taxes" or shots are fired as is in areas like mine. Actual police protection around here is only for the wealthy. They only exist for the rest of us to enforce the property rights of said wealthy and the government.
First, guns per capita are here verifyably in the Level of texas. More likely more. So no guns have no impact alone.
Secondly depends on Terrain and how willing the state and institutions would be and how converted the Effort is, including Recruiting locals as auxilia etc.
The locals have no interest in being "auxilia". We've hated law enforcement since prohibition. Might work in Texas though.
Well, money talks i doubt the monetary Situation would not motivite,further who said anything about "asking"
But this is just culture difference i guess
Yeah, money might work, as a lot of people around here are pretty broke. As far as "not asking" they'd need the manpower before doing that.
Remember how there were only 15 cases in the US, and now there are 50,000?
Yeah. The US was only testing a few hundred people then. They've only recently, in the past few days, ramped up their testing. That the number of cases should increase as a consequence should be obvious.
Remember, being positive for the coronavirus should not be considered the same thing as being "sick" (especially given the false positive rate). The vast majority of cases do not show symptoms - they are asymptomatic, but this does not mean that they are asymptomatic carriers. Usually, if the body is healthy, it is because it is able to adequately fight the disease, making you either not contagious or not very contagious (you might shed an extremely small amount of the virus that is very unlikely to infect others).
The real fear is that people are most contagious in the 24 hours before symptoms occur. That is, they are not going to stay asymptomatic. They are presymptomatic. Unfortunately, the tests they have are inadequate to tell this, so they just assume everybody that tests positive is presymptomatic - which is more of that fake math they do to make this virus seem far worse than it really is.
It's also worth pointing out that the number of cases is seemingly directly proportionate to testing - you test more, you get more positive results. Obviously, but with a high false positive rate, it would mean that number of "confirmed" cases would still increase as you tested more people, even among a healthy population. Also, saying there are 50,000 cases is not the same as saying there are 50,000 sick people, or even that those 50,000 people are infectious. It's actually a fairly worthless number that tells us nothing about the disease. The existence of the disease in a particular population does not indicate how easily it will spread or how dangerous it will be to those who get it.
The number to look at would be the number of symptomatic patients, and even then, the severity of the disease will be based on the number of hospitalizations and deaths. As Spain and Germany show, it is affecting different communities in very different ways, where they may have similar numbers of positive cases, but very, very different numbers for hospitalizations and deaths.
That's what the curfew is supposed to prevent. 1 case takes very little time to become thousands.
I assure you that the vast majority of transmissions did not happen between 11 pm and 5 am when all the restaurants, businesses, and bars were closed. There's no reason to have an evening curfew, especially when there is already a stay at home order which effectively shuts down anywhere that would host more than a few people at a time.
So, in a society with very few infected people—fewer proportionately than the test gives false positives—there will actually be more who test positive for a disease incorrectly and don't have it than those who test positive accurately and do.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/24 22:02:28
queen_annes_revenge wrote: So in Britain in the last few days, we've had, people robbing schools and nurseries for freezers, people robbing NHS workers for IDs, and people calling 999 to ask the police if they're allowed to leave their houses. Jesus were stupid.
I take it your police have issued the same idiotic decrees about how they will only be responding to certain egregious crimes and will be working at minimal capacity as many of the departments over here have?
in such situations one needs to CALL in all the manpower to maintain order. No quarter given until the people actually realise that they are beeing stupid, then send that manpower back again.
Do you have any idea how much manpower that would entail in a country as big and heavily armed as the United States? With vast swaths of poor rural areas? Here in Appalachia you generally only see a cop when either a local drug dealer fails to pay his "taxes" or shots are fired as is in areas like mine. Actual police protection around here is only for the wealthy. They only exist for the rest of us to enforce the property rights of said wealthy and the government.
First, guns per capita are here verifyably in the Level of texas. More likely more. So no guns have no impact alone.
Secondly depends on Terrain and how willing the state and institutions would be and how converted the Effort is, including Recruiting locals as auxilia etc.
The locals have no interest in being "auxilia". We've hated law enforcement since prohibition. Might work in Texas though.
Well, money talks i doubt the monetary Situation would not motivite,further who said anything about "asking"
But this is just culture difference i guess
Yeah, money might work, as a lot of people around here are pretty broke. As far as "not asking" they'd need the manpower before doing that.
So yeah, cultural differences.
Meh whip and sugarbread allways work.
If you anyways have to go and get some bucks in the side...
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
There is no way its 80% false positives, false negatives due to poor techniques of swabbing would technically be possible but not at that rate, they wouldn't do it, now I know they are not 100% accurate, but 80% false positive is not true and by that extrapolation the death rate would be much higher.
When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
The conclusion that you just quoted is that half or more of asymptomatic cases may be false positives, not that 80% of all positives are.
However, given the dodgy phrasing and the fact that the conclusion seems to be saying something very different to the body of the article, I think there are some translation issues going on there, and I'd wait for it to be covered by someone who can provide a more accurate translation before taking it as gospel.
RiTides wrote: Long story short, I got tested this morning, but results will take 7-10 days to come back. Experiencing some of the symptoms (shortness of breath in particular, which would be an awful coincidence if it was something else, as it feels quite different from a cold to me) along with pretty strong body ache, which came first.
Isolating and let everyone I may have come into contact with know. Not worried about myself but hoping I didn't transmit it to anyone at risk, if I do have it (we were being very careful the last 10 days in particular, but with my little kids who catch everything I figured it was a matter of time).
Just wanted to update, stay safe and socially distant (but ideally still connected, like on here) everyone!
If it makes you feel better, it seems coronavirus simply does not kill children, or even hit them very hard at all. Last I heard there were literally zero deaths below the age of 10. The biggest danger regarding kids is them transferring the disease to adults.
Thanks very much Musketeer, and yeah, I have seen that and it is definitely comforting regarding my kids. It's clear that my symptoms, while still mild compared to at-risk cases, are stronger than theirs.
Prior to this we have been primarily worried about unwittingly getting infected and giving it to older friends / acting as a conduit, hence my jumping on it so quickly when we all started feeling something last night...
Of course, it could just end up being the cold/flu, but we have to react as if it's COVID-19 either way. I'll update when we do finally hear back, assuming we do - they basically just took my name, phone number, and a few basic pieces of information, and said they'd call with the results. I'm sure they're crazy swamped, which is also why we only got a single test for our family. Anyway, nothing to do but isolate and wait now!
Well the lock down was only initiated 24 hours ago, so these were likely before that. And I do wonder how they plan to police the lock down. I imagine the main effort will be in towns and cities, stopping people congregating, but I fail to see how they're going to stop me doing... DUN DUN DUN... 2 exercise sessions a day outside, should I choose to do so.
There is no way its 80% false positives, false negatives due to poor techniques of swabbing would technically be possible but not at that rate, they wouldn't do it, now I know they are not 100% accurate, but 80% false positive is not true and by that extrapolation the death rate would be much higher.
When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
What your then implying is that we have a disease that is far more deadly in that if 80% are false positives, what on earth has killed over 17000 people, all who died of respiratory related disease. Or do dispute the death figure also.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Well the lock down was only initiated 24 hours ago, so these were likely before that. And I do wonder how they plan to police the lock down. I imagine the main effort will be in towns and cities, stopping people congregating, but I fail to see how they're going to stop me doing... DUN DUN DUN... 2 exercise sessions a day outside, should I choose to do so.
You maniac ! maybe that text they sent us put a tracker on your phone, best leave it behind.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/24 22:54:32
Its funny hearing people still say this is, at best a hoax, or at worst "a bunch of over reaction".
Jesus Christ, over the past two weeks 4 of 6 possible family members have been laid out for 4 days each with Influenza B. One of them being my Immunocompromised mom. All because someone got the kid of my babysitter sick. Instead it could have been something that could have seen any of us much sicker, or my mom DEAD.
And she might STILL get it and die, because she can be turned away from a hospital because shes old and undergoing cancer treatment, because so many who think it's all bs are getting sick and clogging up the hospitals.
One infector got a chain of 6 people sick. And with Coronavirus it might be a person who doesn't even know they are sick, starting a dozen of those chains. Oh, and now that I am just getting over being laid out flat shivering and moaning with the flue for four days, a 63 year old guy from my work just self-quarantined after vacationing in Florida for a week (and his wife is an ER nurse where they are treating a patient) and having a sudden-onset fever for no reason.
This virus is not bs. I can point anyone to several things related to it that ARE, however.
Dammit! Just look at Italy! Come one people.
This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2020/03/25 00:37:08
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
The problem is we've grown up in a time when the media has bombarded us with scenes of starving, sick children in far off lands. Tales of earthquakes and wars and disasters in other countries. The vast majority of which have no impact what so ever on our daily lives save for appearing in the news. It basically desensitises people over time, to events in other countries.
Furthermore its human nature to somewhat ignore things we cannot influence, control or which do not have a direct influence on us. They are not "Real" and if we did react to them in a big way we'd be nervous wrecks very quickly with the amount of news we get of disasters all over the world.
So it makes full sense to me that people don't start to react until the event starts to affect them personally - until the shops they want to go too are closed; until the food is gone from the shelves; until the police/army are on the streets; until a loved one or friend etc.... gets sick. These people aren't bad and are often not stupid, the world just isn't on their radar and their viewpoint is much more localised.
AegisGrimm wrote: Jesus Christ, over the past two weeks 4 of 6 possible family members have been laid out for 4 days each with Influenza B.
My dad can't distinguish the cold from the flu, so I'm wondering how many of those who say, "It's only the flu" are actually comparing CoVid with a cold, not the flu.
The number of CoVid cases in the United States is underreported. There are not enough testing kits, kits have been reported as faulty, and CDC criteria has prevented those with symptoms from being tested (and may continue to do so).
CoVid is infectious to others before symptoms appear. So the way tests are administered in the USA does not prevent the virus from spreading, particularly to those in frequent contact.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-testing-decision-likely-213232798.html
YOYO. Even here, in the San Francisco Bay Area, people are congregating on beaches during the warning to stay indoors.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/25 01:17:20
AegisGrimm wrote: Its funny hearing people still say this is, at best a hoax, or at worst "a bunch of over reaction".
Jesus Christ, over the past two weeks 4 of 6 possible family members have been laid out for 4 days each with Influenza B. One of them being my Immunocompromised mom. All because someone got the kid of my babysitter sick. Instead it could have been something that could have seen any of us much sicker, or my mom DEAD.
And she might STILL get it and die, because she can be turned away from a hospital because shes old and undergoing cancer treatment, because so many who think it's all bs are getting sick and clogging up the hospitals.
One infector got a chain of 6 people sick. And with Coronavirus it might be a person who doesn't even know they are sick, starting a dozen of those chains. Oh, and now that I am just getting over being laid out flat shivering and moaning with the flue for four days, a 63 year old guy from my work just self-quarantined after vacationing in Florida for a week (and his wife is an ER nurse where they are treating a patient) and having a sudden-onset fever for no reason.
This virus is not bs. I can point anyone to several things related to it that ARE, however.
Dammit! Just look at Italy! Come one people.
A large number of people, in first world countries, fervently believe the earth is flat.
Overread wrote: I get the feeling that whilst its not been said this evening the UK government still expects the vast majority of people to contract the virus. The shutdown is simply attempting to stem the tide of infections to a level that is easier to cope with than simply letting it run rampant.
The real question will be how well things hold out and how the country will re-activate. I can see them likely relaxing some restrictions, not all, and then clamping down again once the surge of new infections rises.
It might be that we go through several peak and fall periods with the disease.
The problem is we can't afford to let the majority of the population contract the virus. Building group immunity in a way that doesn't overwhelm the medical system will take decades with current Intensive Care capacity. Still a couple years if we manage to increase capacity tenfold. And then there's the risk of the virus mutating so much thanks to having millions of hosts that a vaccine isn't going to cover everything anymore.
80% have mild symptoms and do not require hospitalisation, and 14% require only limited care, the remaining 6% get critically ill. There will be overstretch but possibly not to breaking point. Also herd immunity will reach a point where the isolated do not get it at all when they come out of isolation. The government strategy had a good chance of working, but political pressure got too high, and too many people were totally ignoring all precautions. Lets deal with this sensibly didn't work, too many people are unsensible, now the government must use stick.
I have no idea how many hospital beds there are in England, but here in America we have roughly a million.
Six percent of the population is over twenty million.
I trust you see the problem with having twenty million people needing hospitalization all at once.
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Sqorgar wrote: I think most people would rather take their chances with the Spanish Flu than wake up in East Berlin - but the media makes it sound like a complete loss of liberty, autonomy, and a grotesque invasion of privacy is fun little family vacation. Why wouldn't you want to save Pop-pop's life by complete authoritarian control over all aspects of your life?
Because that's nowhere close to what's being asked of you, and that you equate the two tells me you have never experienced complete authoritarian control over all aspects of your life.
In the early 80's I got to meet relatives from behind the Iron Curtain. You have no idea what bad is. What's being asked of you is positively benign in comparison to what they lived with most of their lives.
gorgon wrote: That's right. The governors will do what they think is right to protect their people.
Surely there is a line they can't cross, though? Should we allow governors to decide which surgeries are elective or non-life threatening and can't be performed? Shouldn't that be a risk assessment made by actual doctors and their patients? Can they shutdown, for example, every bar in a state - many of which can not and will not be able to reopen? Should we give power like that to just one person with no oversight or recourse? It'd be like letting the governor unilaterally deciding to make abortions illegal - oh wait, those are elective and non-life threatening, so you can't get them done right now anyway...
What do you mean, no oversight or recourse? The courts still exist (there's your recourse), and oversight comes every six years. Make yourself unpopular and you're out of a job.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/03/25 02:34:21
So France is now treating people with chloroquine in hospitals ! We'll soon see if hundreds are healed or not. It's gonna be over soon, as it is a cheap and easily available drug.
godardc wrote: So France is now treating people with chloroquine in hospitals ! We'll soon see if hundreds are healed or not. It's gonna be over soon, as it is a cheap and easily available drug.
To the best of my knowledge France is only doing limited trials to test viability. It will be weeks or months before a determination can be made as to its viability as a wide-scale treatment. Even still, its not "gonna be over soon" - early trials indicate its a 3-6 day course of treatment to see results, during which time patients will need to remain in the hospital (if its bad enough to warrant pharmaceutical treatment then the patient in question is likely already hospitalized). By the time the patient arrives in the hospital they have already been contagious for several days, for some portion of that time they will have been asymptomatic, so they have already potentially transmitted the virus to a number of other individuals before arriving or before there was any indication of illness. These other individuals will themselves be potential transmission vectors for the virus, as well as having their own potential for hospitalization, etc. etc. etc.
All what Chloroquine will do is help us prevent deaths, it does not prevent transmission, we still need to maintain active measures to flatten the curve in order to prevent hospitals and healthcare providers from being overwhelmed, otherwise France and other nations will quickly end up like Italy (or for that matter New York City). We will be engaging in mitigation and containment measures for months to come regardless of whether or not chloroquine pans out as an effective treatment.
CoALabaer wrote: Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
If so, I have a hundred or more books to give to anyone who needs some entertainment, mostly sci fi including Horus Heresy paperback novels. I’d send them for the cost of shipping. I previously shipped about 20 books for less than $8.
Not sure if this was already stated but I would be interested to see how they are correlating cause of death to corona. If you’re 85 and battling cancer and this unfortunately puts you over the edge are they counting that as a cancer death? Is it counted as a corona death? Double counted? Especially since the majority of individuals who are succumbing to this pandemic seem to be those with preexisting health issues. I want to see % with zero underlying medical conditions.
I’m asking because that could explain the differences between countries and how they report deaths.
insaniak wrote:The conclusion that you just quoted is that half or more of asymptomatic cases may be false positives, not that 80% of all positives are.
However, given the dodgy phrasing and the fact that the conclusion seems to be saying something very different to the body of the article, I think there are some translation issues going on there, and I'd wait for it to be covered by someone who can provide a more accurate translation before taking it as gospel.
Well, those are actually two different numbers. The test gives an 80% false positive of positives rate, but of the positives, there's a 50% or more chance that it is false. This is actually explained on the Wikipedia page for the false positive paradox. I'll use the example from there directly to save myself some math.
Assume you have a drunk driving test that has a false positive rate of 5% and have a rate of 1 in 1000 drivers being drunk. You arrest a drunk driver and he tests positive. What is the chance that he is actually drunk? 2%, not 95%.
1 driver in 1000 is drunk. 999 drivers in 1000 are not, but will have a 5% false positive rate (5% of 999 is 49.95). So after testing 1000 people, you will have 1 + 49.95 or 50.95 positive tests. So the chance that any one individual that tests positive is true is 1/50.95 or 1.9%.
However, this isn't directly comparable because they are saying that there is an 80% false positive rate only among positive claims, not overall. It can be calculated though using numbers we don't have - which is why they did a multivariance sensitivity analysis to try out all the possible values for the numbers we don't have, and figured it out based on comparing the results of those calculations with known data.
Long story short, percentages are tricky little bastards, and based on some of the mathhammer discussions I've seen on this board, very misleading.
Marxist artist wrote:What your then implying is that we have a disease that is far more deadly in that if 80% are false positives, what on earth has killed over 17000 people, all who died of respiratory related disease. Or do dispute the death figure also.
Well, yes. The mortality rate is a simple equation of the number of cases divided by the number of deaths attributed to it. If the number of cases drops, the mortality rate goes up.
But I don't think the majority of people are dying of the coronavirus, but instead are dying while having the coronavirus. Before you jump down my throat, look at the difference between Spain and Germany. Spain has thousands dead, Germany has dozens. Same virus. Last I checked, they had roughly similar confirmed positive cases. There's something else at play here than just the virus, except in the possible case that Spain has a different virus than Germany (which seems unlikely, given their proximity and the short amount of time between their outbreaks - the virus mutates, but the vast majority of the mutations are worthless).
As I've mentioned before the Spanish Flu wasn't what actually killed anybody. The Spanish Flu did not kill 50 million people. It was bacterial pneumonia. In short, the influenza virus destroyed cells that lined the lungs and bronchial tubes, allowing the pneumonia virus access to infect. If you got the Spanish Flu but not pneumonia, your chances of survival went way, way up.
It is possible that we are looking at something similar here, and that's why the mortality rate can vary between 0.2% and 8% between countries. The coronavirus is itself a catalyst, or there is a secondary disease or condition which operates as a catalyst for the coronavirus. If this is the case, then the number of cases is virtually meaningless without identifying the catalyst.
AegisGrimm wrote: Jesus Christ, over the past two weeks 4 of 6 possible family members have been laid out for 4 days each with Influenza B.
My dad can't distinguish the cold from the flu, so I'm wondering how many of those who say, "It's only the flu" are actually comparing CoVid with a cold, not the flu.
The number of CoVid cases in the United States is underreported. There are not enough testing kits, kits have been reported as faulty, and CDC criteria has prevented those with symptoms from being tested (and may continue to do so).
CoVid is infectious to others before symptoms appear. So the way tests are administered in the USA does not prevent the virus from spreading, particularly to those in frequent contact.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-testing-decision-likely-213232798.html
YOYO. Even here, in the San Francisco Bay Area, people are congregating on beaches during the warning to stay indoors.
Yeah, I know for near-certainty I have the Flu-B, because when my 5yo son got it, we took him to the doc and a test showed it for sure as Influenza B (which really sucked as he got a flu shot this year!). This is the sickest I have been since I got H1N1 in 2009. Then I had to take 4 straight days off work, and this time it was a weekend and two weekdays of pretty intense misery.
Look at it this way. If this Coronavirus is anywhere near as transmissable (or more) as H1N1, back when I had my bout with that it was because someone came to a LARP I played with it.
One person.
The next week, 18 of 26 people in attendance were sick with it. Several of us got it tested for sure, and every person was sick for several days straight. My wife got it less than me, I nearly ended up going to the hospital.
That's almost 70% of the people that shared three buildings on and off for between 24 and for 36 hours, even with tons of fresh air.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2020/03/25 04:16:08
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