The Island of Despair - WH Fantasy Mafia Game (Game Over - The daemon takes all)

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**Thor665**

ferrett
Mordoskull

The ball is back in your guys court - Rusty isn't likely to be the lynch today, so you need to either attack the other two wagons and show why they suxx0rs, and/or parade around how awesome your wagon is.

or

You need to consider flipping onto one of these wagons. They are both at L-2 (two votes from lynch).

**the_ferrett**

Voting without a reason is suspicious. Even if that reason is his socks are purple, that's still a reason.
I cannot for the life of me think of a reason to vote either of the other two.

**RiTides**

Well, there are LOTS of reasons listed- I'm guessing you're just saying you don't agree with the ones posted so far.

Which is fine... it would just be nice to get more than 1-3 sentences out of you every once in a while, though

**RiTides**

Up...

**Thor665**

We are in a 2 way tie and deadline is tomorrow. If there is no motion from any of the rest of you I will unvote Drk_O and vote Mordo to ensure a lynch.

If you want a no lynch and are trying to make it happen, at least have the grapefruits to claim as such.

**Mordoskul**

Hell, I'd be happy with a no lynch.

Unvote:RustyKnight
Vote: No Lynch

**BishopGore**

(Dang it Mordo, posting while I'm writing this!

)

Current Voting Situation
0 - n0t_u
3 - Drk_Oblitr8r (Thor665, RiTides, n0t_u)
1 - RustyKnight (the_ferrett)
0 - the_ferrett
0 - WARORK93
3 - Mordoskul (RustyKnight, WARORK93, Drk_Oblitr8r)
0 - RiTides
0 - Thor665

1 - No lynch (Mordoskul)

Not voting (-)
Not posted during Day 2 (-)

If the day ended now, nobody would be lynched

With EIGHT alive it takes FIVE to lynch before the deadline is reached

Day 2 ends at 0900 GMT 5th April 2011 [0 Days 10 Hours 45 Minutes]

RustyKnight votes Thor665
Thor665 votes Drk_Oblitr8r
RiTides votes Thor665
the_ferrett votes RustyKnight
Thor665 unvotes Drk_Oblitr8r
Thor665 votes RustyKnight
Drk_Oblitr8r votes n0t_u
Mordoskul votes RustyKnight
WARORK93 votes Thor665
RustyKnight unvotes Thor665
RustyKnight votes Mordoskul
Thor665 unvotes RustyKnight
RiTides unvotes Thor665
RiTides votes Mordoskul
WARORK93 unvotes Thor665
WARORK93 votes Mordoskul
Drk_Oblitr8r unvotes n0t_u
Thor665 votes Drk_Oblitr8r
RiTides unvotes Mordoskul
RiTides votes Drk_Oblitr8r
Drk_Oblitr8r votes Mordoskul
n0t_u votes Drk_Oblitr8r
Mordoskul unvotes RustyKnight
Mordoskul votes NO LYNCH

**RiTides**

Hrm... I wanted Drk_O gone, but I agree- Rusty is the only one who I think could be convinced, and nobody seems to be checking this frequently enough. If we do this now, we'll get 5 votes and ensure a lynch.

Unvote: Drk_O
Vote: Mordoskul

**the_ferrett**

You..... male chickens.
Making me chose someone.
I don't like this.
At all.
If someone nullifies this I am very much kicking ass.
so NOONE CHANGE SIDES.

So we have playstyle shift, and silence versus inane comments and silence from an unknown player.

This vote comes down to which silence indicates more of a guilty party.
And I have to say Mordoskull is just tipping the scales, mainly because he's saying just enough to hint that he's not disinterested.

Vote:Mordoskul

**RiTides**

I am not super-happy about this, but Mordoskul has given no good defense of himself and as my #2 suspicion, I'm ready to see him gone before the night phase (does that also mean we'll get to find out what his role was, if the lynch happens with 5- before the night phase hits?).

**RiTides**

So that's it then! We probably simul-posted but that's 5... = lynch.

**BishopGore**

Story Post

The arguing continued until the very end of the day with opinion flowing and changing with each passing minute. Long periods of sullen silence, short bursts of angry shouting, and constantly the growing threat.

Mordoskul stood apart more and more, and the groups gathered, more voices raised in suspicion and anger against his attitude.

FInally the seven men surrounded Mordoskul. Thor and n0t_u stood back a little, suspicious, but not certain, whilst three stood forward, Rusty, Warork and Drk_O holding him down, watching the rest. Finally, almost simultaneously, Ferrett and RiTides, stepped forward and thrust their swords through him. As darkness fell the blood flowed, and as the frenzied men tore Mordoskul apart they were again greeted by the sight of flesh and blood and watched another soul be sucked into the woods, feeling the gloating and laughter of the spirits around them.

Mordoskul was a human soldier.

Crying with frustration and fear growing ever more potent with each moment that you had not found the killers, each of you again finds solace in your own lone sleeping positions. A few try to stay awake this night, but that same languor steals over your limbs and fall into that deep, dreamless restful sleep that punctuates each night in this place.

Actions

Those of you with night actions, please send them to me by the deadline of MIDNIGHT GMT THURSDAY 07 April 2011 [3days]

Everyone else, enjoy some quiet time away from the game, we will see you again in a few days, ready to begin Day 3.

**BishopGore**

I have received all Night Actions and decided to open Day 3 early. Just to mess with all of you.

Story Post

You awaken again feeling refreshed. After the events of yesterday morning you watch each other as you awaken, wondering who else may have died during the night, victim of evil sorceries.

You look around and count the people around you. Six. Six other people. Hang on, that's how many people there were besides you last night. It takes a moment for this to sink in. No further deaths. You're all still here. You all glance around, suddenly uneasy. Was this planned. Are they playing with you, or have they found better sport elsewhere? Has some guardian spirit saved you, or is this another one of their games?

Relief turns to paranoia and the fighting breaks out immediately, people taking sides and knives drawn before anyone has a chance to stab them first. Threats and snarls, shouting and the threat of imminent violence tinges the air.

With nothing forcing you to break camp, you don't even bother. You're trapped here and if you don't find the killers then you're never getting out.

Never. Getting. Out.

Actions

Day 3 has begun. The two week deadline has begun.

Day 3 ends at 1800 BST (British Summer Time)/1700 GMT Wednesday 20th April

**WARORK93**

Well, I'll be the first to say that that little plan didn't work out too well did it?

I must wonder the reason why nobody was killed last night though, its beyond me really...anyone got theories? I'm dyin to hear em.....

...........no pun intended

**Thor665**

@Warork - allow me to venture out the theory that our protective role (the mage) did good last night.

We currently have seven alive by my count.

The mage knows for a fact about two town (himself and whoever he protected) That means we have five options to hit two scum within. Our optimal goal is to lynch from within those five.

I'm going to have to go crunch some numbers to puzzle out whether it's best to have the doc claim now or not till tomorrow. I'm pretty sure it's best to claim now but I want to run the figures and make sure. I'll be back later with that.

**RustyKnight**

Where'd you hear that our doc was the mage?

**Thor665**

@Rusty - It was either in the pre-game thread or in one of the PMs we exchanged while discussing game balance. Probably both.

So the breakdown is this going with worst case scenarios;

7 alive with 2 scum and 2 confirmed town whose names we don't yet know.

If doc claims that gives us 5 potential scum.
We lynch one (worst case - town), scum kill doc.
Tomorrow is 5 alive - 1 confirmed town 4 possible scum.
40% chance to lynch scum and than a 50% chance to lynch scum - we lose if we get both wrong.

If we do not have the doc claim unless we're about to lynch him or the confirmed town we lynch from the pool of five.
Scum kill either the doc or the confirmed town.
Doc can claim if he's alive - confirmed town can't claim if Doc is dead.

Best case scenario is Doc doesn't claim, we lynch from the pool of five by dumb luck, and the scum kill someone else from the pool of 5 and then Doc claims tomorrow.
So pool of 5 = 40% chance to lynch scum
Scum kill from pool of 5.
Doc clears two players, so we have a pool of three (66% to lynch scum and we have to get this one or the 40% one right or we lose)
Scum kill Doc.
3 player lylo - 50% chance to win.

I see a full claim by the Doc now as being the "safer" of the bets. Even the optimal with Doc not claiming isn't much better than what we get with him claiming, and the worst case is...well, worse.

Anyone see any holes I'm missing?

**the_ferrett**

The fact that the claimed Doc might actually be a scum?

**Thor665**

We 100% have a doc though - so if Doc claims and then a second Doc claims we lynch from amongst the them and have a 100% chance of lynching scum within our two lynches, which is good for us. I'd actually prefer it if scum fakeclaimed Doc.

**Drk_Oblitr8r**

I think it's a trick

I think maybe the scum decided to not lynch anybody, to try and convince doc to come out of hiding.

You see, all that we're told is that nobody died. This suddenly makes everyone think that there's a Doc in play. Now, you watch. The one who it seems we're about to lynch will claim to be Doc, in the hopes of convincing everyone to not lynch them.

I'll take this time to say kudos to the Doc, whoever they are. You'd have to be superspecialawesome and incredibly smart to make it this far, most don't make it to Day 2.

**Thor665**

It's not a trick unless scum are stupid. If they had killed last night they would have been in position to win the game with a single mislynch today - instead now they're at needing two mislynches to win, best case.

In exchange they out the doc and...what, *maybe* end up as confirmed town? Or end up with a town being confirmed, which is more likely. It would be an exceedingly convoluted and risky plan if they no killed.

**RustyKnight**

Thor is on the money: I vote for a doc reveal.

**the_ferrett**

I do enjoy the way that this morning has started, with massive hints that neither of us three is the doc. We wouldn't be so hyperthetical if we were.

(Hint: I'm not said doc)

**SagesStone**

RustyKnight wrote:Thor is on the money: I vote for a doc reveal.

Why would you want someone so beneficial for the town to reveal themselves. I doubt they're able to use their ability on themselves. I'm not sure I'm following you both on it being a good idea for them to paint a big target on their heads.

**RiTides**

I, too, think it'd be helpful for the doc to reveal themselves and who they protected... it would narrow the pool of possible villains down to 5. Right now I feel like we're still flying blind and could very easily mislynch again.

However, this also makes sense to me:

Thor wrote:If we do not have the doc claim unless we're about to lynch him or the confirmed town we lynch from the pool of five.

We could just begin our round of accusations again, and simply expect that if the person has any sense, they'll pipe up before we lynch them. The detective didn't do so, and although saying something would have doomed him, I think it would've been smart to speak up because it'd have saved us from a false lynch and forced the killer to take him out (and the doctor could always protect him, after all).

But I don't think there's any point waiting around... we are rather where we were before, except with the assurance that if we start seriously planning to lynch the confirmed innocent or the doctor, they can warn us about it.

I'm not sure, though. At the moment, we still don't have any clue who the killers are, apparently. Making the doctor reveal themselves could help with that... The downside is we then likely lose the doctor this night. Having him wait till tomorrow might not help our odds much... Especially if we mislynch. Doing that should be our biggest concern, I think. On the other hand, a reveal right now would give us more information to lynch correctly... Can't really decide to be honest. This could be a side effect of the crazy work week I've had

. Or the fact that all my suspicions so far have proven wrong. Really, does anyone have a strong suspicion (with supporting evidence) now that we've lynched wrong again?

**SagesStone**

I'm not sure the doc would be aware of the role of who they block though. At most it would clear one person, but every time I've seen someone claim they are a protown role, they usually end up the lynch that day or the night kill, if not the lynch of the next day as next to no one believes them and it's not all that difficult for the bad guys to roll with the disbelief.

I guess I'm just seeing it as too much of a gamble.

There will be clues, we just need to open our eyes and look for them harder.

**RiTides**

*Up*

**Thor665**

n0t_u wrote:
RustyKnight wrote:Thor is on the money: I vote for a doc reveal.

Why would you want someone so beneficial for the town to reveal themselves. I doubt they're able to use their ability on themselves. I'm not sure I'm following you both on it being a good idea for them to paint a big target on their heads.

I explained this, let me try again.

What is more beneficial to the town right now?

Absolute knowledge of two confirmed town?

or

A 1/6 chance to avoid a nightkill tomorrow?

**SagesStone**

Now I get it. 1/6 or 1/3.

Perhaps it is an alright idea. Still a little skeptical of it though.

So any ideas on who it could be?

**Thor665**

Everybody is sitting around waiting for brilliance - here it is;

@Doc - claim, seriously, no one has presented a viable case for you not to claim.

@Everyone else - let's not wait for that claim, because we still need to try to lynch scum and we can always move votes after said claim.

Vote: theferrett

Last minute shift to Mordo, and unlike RTides didn't comment on the simul-vote.