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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 06:57:05
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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[ARTICLE MOD]
Longtime Dakkanaut
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Here are some more "gems" from Warseer:
Yeah, I do that. If i fire my missile it will miss. If I fire the same weapon but call it a rocket, it will hit. No joke.
Yep...because what you call something affects how the dice roll!
Also, has any one else noticed that red GW dice seem to score lower than black or white? I noticed this last year, so (with the help of a very smart friend of mine) i did an experiment testing 2 sets of 30 red dice, 1 set of 30 black dice, and 1 set of 30 white dice, each set rolled 50 times, with the score of each roll added together. For some strange reason, both sets of red dice rolled noticably lower (at least 34%) than either the black or white, which both had similar averages.
And color affects rolling as well!
This isnt right. It depends on the actual Save and Tohit involved. Simply put, the worse the roll (from your point of view) the better it is to boost that one with +1. So for example its much better to modify the 2+ cover save then your 4+ tohit. Modifying the 2+ cover save will net you double (+100%) the chance to get past the save while increasing the 4+ tohit will give you +1/3rd (+33%) more hits.
Here, we have someone talking about Markerlights, reducing cover saves, and boosting BS. We also have someone who will Fail the Monty Haul problem.
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"I was not making fun of you personally - I was heaping scorn on an inexcusably silly idea - a practice I shall always follow." - Lt. Colonel Dubois, Starship Troopers
Don't settle for the pewter horde! Visit http://www.bkarmypainting.com and find out how you can have a well-painted army quickly at a reasonable price. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 07:33:01
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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Wait, is that cover save thing wrong?
Say you shoot pulse rifles at eldar pathfinders and increase your ballistic skill:
2/3 chance to hit
5/6 chance to wound
1/6 chance of getting through the cover save
2/3 * 5/6 * 1/6 = 10/108 = 5/54
Say you shoot pulse rifles at eldar pathfinders and decrease their cover save:
1/2 chance to hit
5/6 chance to wound
1/3 chance of getting through the cover save
1/2 * 5/6 * 1/3 = 5/36
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Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 07:54:20
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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[ARTICLE MOD]
Longtime Dakkanaut
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Orkeosaurus wrote:Wait, is that cover save thing wrong?
It's his logic, not his numbers. He's comparing apples (the wounds past the cover saves) and oranges (the number of extra hits).
<pause>
Actually, on re-reading what he's saying, the poster in question just can't explain himself properly, because he's describing apples as oranges.
sigh.
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"I was not making fun of you personally - I was heaping scorn on an inexcusably silly idea - a practice I shall always follow." - Lt. Colonel Dubois, Starship Troopers
Don't settle for the pewter horde! Visit http://www.bkarmypainting.com and find out how you can have a well-painted army quickly at a reasonable price. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 16:13:30
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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Ah, I see what you're saying then.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/03/03 17:17:00
Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 20:11:44
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Blood Angel Terminator with Lightning Claws
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oomiestompa wrote:My strategy is throwing buckets of dice at my opponent's models. The ones that get knocked over count as destroyed.
That is great! I love it, I want to stencil it on my army transports.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 21:14:33
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Executing Exarch
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Centurian99 wrote:Also, has any one else noticed that red GW dice seem to score lower than black or white? I noticed this last year, so (with the help of a very smart friend of mine) i did an experiment testing 2 sets of 30 red dice, 1 set of 30 black dice, and 1 set of 30 white dice, each set rolled 50 times, with the score of each roll added together. For some strange reason, both sets of red dice rolled noticably lower (at least 34%) than either the black or white, which both had similar averages. And color affects rolling as well! Really, I tend to dismiss anything that's said with the caveat of "my smart friend said..." From the outset you know already know the speaker isn't the sharpest tack in the box. But in this guy's defense, at least they performed an experiment to test the theory. That and in some other experiment I saw run somewhere it was shown that due to the way they indent the pips, GW dice roll 1's more often than they should (~19 or 20% of the time I think).
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/03/03 21:14:54
**** Phoenix ****
Threads should be like skirts: long enough to cover what's important but short enough to keep it interesting. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/03 23:54:25
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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[MOD]
Anti-piracy Officer
Somewhere in south-central England.
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There's an article on it.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 00:36:03
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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::twitch::
I think you can (basically) always make a mathhammer work in your favour.
poster01: flamer kills (assuming it hits 6 marines, which is very likely): 1 marines.
A Marinesquad consists of 5 marines. How to very likely assume 6 hits?
poster01: As in an example I gave in an other thread, given the common situation of both taking a lascannon hit, the chance of wrecking a defiler is 0.44 vs killing two oblits which is 0.55.
A lascannon cannot kill 2 Oblits!
Just be careful with a mathhammer!
It's like a tumor... a horrible lymphatic tumor growing over to our board
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 01:33:00
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Regular Dakkanaut
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I tend to come back here for threads like the "laser cut wood terrain thread" and for threads like this
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/231650.page
I do go to other forums occasionally because there are some AMAZING painters om the b&c.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 02:26:20
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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the big problem that ive had with posting WIP stuff on places like B&C, is that there are just so many marine players, that your stuff just gets washed down the line, with little to no good criticism to help you out with any issues/questions.
anymore, ive only been here and the site i help admin for, which is in my sig  (shameless plug, i know) but yeah, there are some real *geniuses* out there on da interwebz
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 06:33:58
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Angry Chaos Agitator
Rochester, New York
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I think idiots exist within any large gathering of people.
I don't buy the Dakka elitism on the whole, and this isn't support of Warseer.
Yeah, I know because you guys can swear to some extent on this forum and there are a lot of in jokes going around you feel like superior posters and all that, but really - I read both pages and some people on Warseer have valid things to say. Just like some here do, but not too many.
I don't think a sampling of someone who doesn't speak english at all trying to explain probability is any more telling than say, quoting random H.B.M.C posts.
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: 4000 Points : 3000 Points : 2000 Points |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 06:53:40
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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!!Goffik Rocker!!
(THIS SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK)
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He probably should have mentioned the flamers capability of skewing the average statistic (in dozens of recorded instances) with its ability to kill multiple models, where the meltagun at prime rolling can kill only a single marine. You don't throw out the high or low end in a statistical analysis, you roll it up and in doing so generate an average. The flamer has a much higher high end (this can be cosidered the "luck" factor I guess) than the meltagun. Thus at its maximum its capable of doing considerably more damage. People that don't understand how statistics work claim that factors such as this are just "luck" and invalidate the comparison, where in fact they are part of a well designed statistical analysis. One that finds the actual overall average of kills in a series of tests, not just simple mathematical comparisons that never see real world observation. Statistics aren't something you do on a piece of paper with a couple of numbers. They are something you observe, otherwise you will likely miss something skewing your statistic. Rather than doing that though he blankly assumed people don't combat squad and ignored range. He also blankly compared two weapons against an un ideal target. Ones there to kill light targets in cover, the other is designed to kill heavy tanks. One also costs more than the other. As it is this is just cherry picking of a stupid thread. Dakka has those in spades. This isn't exactly the most well mannered or even headed bunch.
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This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2009/03/04 06:57:20
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Do you remember that time that thing happened?
This is a bad thread and you should all feel bad |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 07:15:38
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Calculating Commissar
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Centurian99 wrote:Also, has any one else noticed that red GW dice seem to score lower than black or white? I noticed this last year, so (with the help of a very smart friend of mine) i did an experiment testing 2 sets of 30 red dice, 1 set of 30 black dice, and 1 set of 30 white dice, each set rolled 50 times, with the score of each roll added together. For some strange reason, both sets of red dice rolled noticably lower (at least 34%) than either the black or white, which both had similar averages.
And color affects rolling as well!
That's not automatically ludicrous. It might very well be that different colored dice are made with a different machine, which can introduce numerous little variables and inconsistencies (though it's anyone's guess whether these would be larger than those between two dice coming from the same machine). I'm not a statistician, but I've seen some evidence, though not particularly rigorous by statistical standards, that GW dice don't have an accurate distribution.
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The supply does not get to make the demands. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 17:07:25
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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[DCM]
Tilter at Windmills
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There’s no need to generalize from silly posters to denigrate a forum publically. It’s impolite at best.
Commenting on ridiculous posts = generally cool
Forum Wars = lame.
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Adepticon 2015: Team Tourney Best Imperial Team- Team Ironguts, Adepticon 2014: Team Tourney 6th/120, Best Imperial Team- Cold Steel Mercs 2, 40k Championship Qualifier ~25/226
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A better way to score Sportsmanship in tournaments
The 40K Rulebook & Codex FAQs. You should have these bookmarked if you play this game.
The Dakka Dakka Forum Rules You agreed to abide by these when you signed up.
Maelstrom's Edge! |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/04 17:16:37
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Ridin' on a Snotling Pump Wagon
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I'll actually back up the red dice being treacherous swine!
I stick to my black dice, and they always roll way above average. Much to the consternation and gnashing of teeth by my opponents.
Switch to red dice, and suddenly my Repeater Crossbowmen are reduced to firing clods of earth at the enemy...
Odd but true in my own experience.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/05 04:03:00
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Fixture of Dakka
drinking ale on the ground like russ intended
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I use chesex dice has any one rolled them and land on the corner not on a flat on a corner.
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Logan's Great Company Oh yeah kickin' and not even bothering to take names. 2nd company 3rd company ravenguard House Navaros Forge world Lucious & Titan legion void runners 314th pie guard warboss 'ed krunchas waaaaaargh This thred needs more cow bell. Raised to acolyte of the children of the church of turtle pie by chaplain shrike 3/06/09 Help stop thread necro do not post in a thread more than a month old. "Dakkanaut" not "Dakkaite"
Join the Church of the Children of Turtle Pie To become a member pm me or another member of the Church |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/06 21:52:45
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Incorporating Wet-Blending
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Actually, most dice (anything other than so-called "casino" precision milled dice) are inferior random number generators. It has to do with, ironically, how they are painted! They start by casting the dice in a plastic mold on a sprue. Problem 1: material density irregularity (minor). Then, they clip the raw plastic dice (Problem 2: irregular removal) and dip them in paint to color the pips/numerals. The dice are then chunked in a tumbler that rolls them around until the paint is only left in the recessed areas. In the process, it also grinds them down leaving rounded edges and corners. This is what really ruins them. Dice should be flat with regular sides. The easiest way to see if dice have been modified is to hold two dice with their faces aligned against one another. There should be no gap- it should be flat from one to the other. The edge/corner problem is also apparent when you roll them. Good dice should stop after hitting the surface quickly, not roll around forever. Try stacking 10 or 20 of most dice and compare your towers. There will be a big height difference even assuming you use the same size dice due to the irregular amount of materials tumbled off.
It's not that some dice are off- it's that almost all of them are, just in different ways!
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-James
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/06 23:09:40
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Dominating Dominatrix
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Chimera_Calvin wrote:OK - I'm sticking to dakka because this is obviously the only forum where people speak English...
Obviously you never read typhus' posts
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 03:01:44
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Fresh-Faced New User
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Parts of this thread are why I don't frequent dakka often: while there is a higher caliber of poster to be found here, there is also a nerd arrogance that is just overwhelming. Instead of having a healthy thread of mockery, there is an infestation of several loud, frustrated students willing to indirectly flame "the ignorants". People that must still hold resentments from their childhood, being compelled to lord their "intelligence" and "education" over everyone else.
I am very serious when I say, "shush". Dakka could be so much better without it. I say this so that maybe people will listen and I can enjoy the forum without suffering the whining of children.
Anyway.
"Thus the quality of the generals has changed, forced or contributed - etc - to the allocation of the beatdown/control relationship through direction and application, which, whilst enhanced by army composition, can be independant of it, or so I believe."
This quote did make me laugh out loud.
Yeah, I know because you guys can swear to some extent on this forum and there are a lot of in jokes going around you feel like superior posters and all that, but really - I read both pages and some people on Warseer have valid things to say. Just like some here do, but not too many.
There’s no need to generalize from silly posters to denigrate a forum publically. It’s impolite at best.
Commenting on ridiculous posts = generally cool
Forum Wars = lame.
...And both quoted for truthery.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 04:45:38
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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jhrovii wrote:Parts of this thread are why I don't frequent dakka often: while there is a higher caliber of poster to be found here, there is also a nerd arrogance that is just overwhelming. Instead of having a healthy thread of mockery, there is an infestation of several loud, frustrated students willing to indirectly flame "the ignorants". People that must still hold resentments from their childhood, being compelled to lord their "intelligence" and "education" over everyone else.
I am very serious when I say, "shush". Dakka could be so much better without it. I say this so that maybe people will listen and I can enjoy the forum without suffering the whining of children.
Get over yourself.
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Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 04:51:09
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Fresh-Faced New User
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It's amazing that so many people still get that markerlight info wrong. With only a few exceptions you are always better off with one choice over the other (which choice depends on the cover save and if the weapon is TL or not).
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 04:57:15
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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BrockSamson wrote:It's amazing that so many people still get that markerlight info wrong. With only a few exceptions you are always better off with one choice over the other (which choice depends on the cover save and if the weapon is TL or not).
I was actually surprised myself once I did the math.
Never really bothered to question the "always increase BS" tidbit. (Never played Tau, of course.)
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Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 05:16:52
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Junior Officer with Laspistol
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The nice thing about warseer is that all their threads don't end in a lock. The stupid thing about warseer is that their non-rules oriented threads rarely have any information of value.
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Why did the berzerker cross the road?
Gwar! wrote:Willydstyle has it correct
Gwar! wrote:Yup you're absolutely right
New to the game and can't win? Read this.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 05:50:20
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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Really?
I think WarSeer's background section is top-notch.
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Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 06:17:41
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Fresh-Faced New User
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willydstyle wrote:The nice thing about warseer is that all their threads don't end in a lock. The stupid thing about warseer is that their non-rules oriented threads rarely have any information of value.
Not knocking their moderating staff, but I do think they should "lock" more. It's one of the areas I'm not actually miffed at dakka about.  They're no L.O. but I do think dakka's team does a good job.
Orkeosaurus wrote:jhrovii wrote:Parts of this thread are why I don't frequent dakka often: while there is a higher caliber of poster to be found here, there is also a nerd arrogance that is just overwhelming. Instead of having a healthy thread of mockery, there is an infestation of several loud, frustrated students willing to indirectly flame "the ignorants". People that must still hold resentments from their childhood, being compelled to lord their "intelligence" and "education" over everyone else.
I am very serious when I say, "shush". Dakka could be so much better without it. I say this so that maybe people will listen and I can enjoy the forum without suffering the whining of children.
Get over yourself.
Good day, sar!
*slams door*
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This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2009/03/07 06:19:02
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 14:41:41
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Stormin' Stompa
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I always laugh at these mathhammer-discussions.
I mean, how hard is it to understand?
Mathhammer is a tool to help you make an educated guess at the outcome in a given situation.
It is a tool with limitations like all tools. Not all facets of the game are quantifiable, thus hard to incorperate in the equation.
Does that mean mathhammer should be discarded as a tool? Of course not.
One must just realize the limitations. I wouldn't try to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver either.
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"He died because he had no honor. He had no honor and the Emperor was watching."
18.000 3.500 8.200 3.300 2.400 3.100 5.500 2.500 3.200 3.000
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 15:13:50
Subject: Re:Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Longtime Dakkanaut
The ruins of the Palace of Thorns
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Can't be bothered to register there to quote, so I'll do it here...
Anyone else spot the guy complain about bad maths then do this?...
Approximate Kills with 2 Las Cannon shots as fired by a BS4 model
Defiler - 2*.66*.5*.33 = .22
Unit of Obliterators - 2*.66*.83*.66 = .74
Basic stats mistakes on BOTH lines, but the second line is particularly horrifying from someone having a go at someone else's maths.
You know everyone runs stats to some extent. Just some more than others. I mean most of us can interpret the threat of a terminator squad vs. guard equivalent. A lot of us actually though just find the stats fun. I think it goes with a love of gambling. You can also write lists around forcing less variance in by using hoards and multishot guns. I'm acutually waiting for someone to start doing some serious statistic analysis w/ the 95% confidence intervals and error bars STDevs, and not just pansy percentages. Also in depth simulation computer simulation of 40k battles is probably not beyond some of the guys who work in molecular modeling at my job. It actually would be quite interesting to see how lists stack over several million simulations. Still though, warhammer unlike checkers isn't really possible to "solve".
Range & Error bars in some of my calcs yes, but I've not quite gone as far as standard deviations! That seems a bit over the top! The computer modelling would require a certain amount of user input even before basic simulations to be of real use, but you could even model the "skill" of generals as a variable that assumes skillful generals ensure favourable matchups between their units and their opponents', whereas unsillful generals could be assumed to make unfavourable matchups. You could even include profiles of generals for things like use of terrain, how much terrain there is on the table and how much particular units make use of terrain for considering things like cover saves. Sounds fun.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 16:01:03
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Battlefortress Driver with Krusha Wheel
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My own favourite from the OP link is in the first post of the thread: "I know this isn't an exact science".
Yep, you're right. Maths isn't an exact science. No, wait, it is. And in fact it's pretty much THE exact science. In fact it's such an exact science that all science relies in it's exact nature to prove everything else! You absolute berk!
LONG LIVE DAKKA!
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 16:29:57
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Ridin' on a Snotling Pump Wagon
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Confusing Maths time!
3 people each chip in £10 for a £30 model.
After the purchase, the shop owner remembers that model had £5 of it's price, and so gives them £5 change in £1 coins.
To thank him for his honest, they give him £2, and each keep £1 each.
This reduces each persons spend to £9 each. 3x9=27....
£2 went to shop owner.....making the total spent £29....
WHERE IS THE OTHER POUND?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/03/07 17:26:12
Subject: Look what Warseer's "discovered"...
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Da Head Honcho Boss Grot
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Why does it matter how much the model weighs?
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This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2009/03/07 18:04:43
Anuvver fing - when they do sumfing, they try to make it look like somfink else to confuse everybody. When one of them wants to lord it over the uvvers, 'e says "I'm very speshul so'z you gotta worship me", or "I know summink wot you lot don't know, so yer better lissen good". Da funny fing is, arf of 'em believe it and da over arf don't, so 'e 'as to hit 'em all anyway or run fer it. |
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