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Blood and Slaughter wrote:Um, no.

6s to hit, with a reroll for twin-linking is 11/36 chance of a hit. 4 shots, your chance of no hits is about 5% per dreadnought. That's a 95% chance of at least one hit per dreadnought. So let's be conservative and say 3 hits for 3 dreadnoughts.

Incorrect again. 4 TL shots needing 6's to hit, get 0.6 hits each.

I think we should agree to disagree, because just like the Dragiowing debate, you are set in your own personal fondness and experiences, and I am set in the tournament experience of me and my friends here as well as the statistical and tactical appearances. Simply, we aren't going to agree I think, so let's not clog up the thread.

well I am going to continue preaching about the transport capability of the Storm Raven I love it, even though the squad inside gets cooked should something bad happen, if you are careful an pick your targets well that shouldn't happen.

Its an amazing vehicle, People used it as a transport and while the 4+ cover save for flat out in 5th was nice, an 3+ if you had a Libby inside the 5+ jink is still useful. Those Str10 Ap1 hits are a b*tch though.

No guts no glory.


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for 258pts (a bargain IMO) you can have 10x Purifiers with 4x Incinerators, 4x Halberds, an 2x Deamon Hammers coming out of a Storm Raven thats a whole lotta cover ignoring pain, Tau dead, Orcs dead, Guard dead, an Terminators having to take a massive amount of 2+ saves. Its an all purpose beat stick for 463pts

valace2 wrote:No guts no glory.

That's fine - it's fun and when it works it's amazing; I guess the question is "Is it reliable enough for a solid list?"


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Godless-Mimicry wrote:

Blood and Slaughter wrote:Um, no.

6s to hit, with a reroll for twin-linking is 11/36 chance of a hit. 4 shots, your chance of no hits is about 5% per dreadnought. That's a 95% chance of at least one hit per dreadnought. So let's be conservative and say 3 hits for 3 dreadnoughts.

Incorrect again. 4 TL shots needing 6's to hit, get 0.6 hits each.

6's to hit, with a reroll is 11/36 chance of a hit, which is a 25/36 chance of a miss (roughly 70%). The chance of 4 misses in a row is 25/36 * 25/36 * 25/36 * 25/36 I think, which comes out at 0.23 (23%). So it's a 77% chance (100-23) of at least one hit per dreadnought. The chance of missing with 4 dreadnoughts would be 0.23 * 0.23 * 0.23 * 0.23 = 0.003 (0.3%).

Not quite sure where the 0.6 hits comes in?

I don't see why you have to hover to engage dreadnoughts.

I do agree that ravens have the upper hand. Then again, if they're engaging dreadnoughts, they're likely not engaging paladins with mindstrikes. . .

Still, TL multi-melta has a 32% chance of destroying a dreadnought in one hit (assuming no cover save applies), which is not shabby, and a TL assault cannon, psybolts should put a hull point one one (two with some luck). So you can reliably hope that two ravens will remove a dreadnought a turn. With some luck, they might get one each.

As I say, I like ravens, I run 3 at 2000, they suit my style. Also opponents tend to panic when they see two or more coming on the board in turn 2.

I do, however, think that as people become used to flyers and stop panicking so much, we won't need universal flakk missiles for ground based lists to hold their own.


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6's to hit, with a reroll is 11/36 chance of a hit, which is a 25/36 chance of a miss (roughly 70%). The chance of 4 misses in a row is 25/36 * 25/36 * 25/36 * 25/36 I think, which comes out at 0.23 (23%).

No, mate.

.69 for one shot
.48 for two
.23 for 3
.05 for 4.


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Incorrect again. 4 TL shots needing 6's to hit, get 0.6 hits each.

Actually you are incorrect again.

a single shot has a .69 chance of missing.
therefore 4 have a .05 chance (see above).

Like I said before in another thread, I think ground based lists are fine so as long as they have something to reliably deal with multiple flyers. All depends on the rest of the list of course as well, as some armies can use movement to negate their effect as they slowly try and whittle them down, but the problem is that as they attempt that they are usually losing a counter a turn. Unfortunately IMO Grey Knights can't play it this way, as we are too small and without the right sort of gun/troop combos to handle it. I will always take my two Ravens in every list, because they do so much more than just counter flyers (and have never died so far). But I will never again buy into 3 Dreads working in 6th edition. I tried it a few times, and they never made their points back, they just died.

Well I am 5-1 in 6th ed games with transport Ravens an have only lost one
with boots onboard.

you are set in your own personal fondness and experiences, and I am set in the tournament experience of me and my friends here as well as the statistical and tactical appearances

Two things here.

First I don't tend to go telling people what are 'must haves' except where a specific choice (eg a stormraven) may well have an optimal build for its purpose (hence always take a stave in a paladin squad because it's hugely useful)

Second. I actually have the stats on my side and I think I've probably got just a little experience against 6the edition lists played by decent players.

But we may certainly agree to disagree.

valace2 wrote:Well I am 5-1 in 6th ed games with transport Ravens an have only lost one
with boots onboard.

So you've won 5 games in the new edition by taking 3 stormravens each time when barely anyone has defenses against them yet.

Congrats

BTW Sethorly is actually right on this one, I looked at it, and ran the numbers again with a different perspective and got that each Dreads has a 68.9% chance of missing completely. Not sure where you are getting your numbers from, as looking at what you have posted makes no sense to me. Your first number matches mine and Sethorly's, but after that it makes no sense.

Also, I don't like how you blanketly imply that the players you have played against are better than the ones I have played against.

daedalus-templarius wrote:

valace2 wrote:Well I am 5-1 in 6th ed games with transport Ravens an have only lost one
with boots onboard.

So you've won 5 games in the new edition by taking 3 stormravens each time when barely anyone has defenses against them yet.

Congrats

And yet according to this thread and the people valace is arguing against we do have defences against them

by taking 3 stormravens each time when barely anyone has defenses against them yet.

In fairness I think most codices do actually have the tools to deal with 3 ravens, it's mainly that at the moment people either don't choose to take them (and the tools are not limited to weapons options in codices, flyers have in game weaknesses that can be exploited without necessarily shooting at them) or they panic when the flyers appear and concentrate more on them than on the mission.

daedalus-templarius wrote:

valace2 wrote:Well I am 5-1 in 6th ed games with transport Ravens an have only lost one
with boots onboard.

So you've won 5 games in the new edition by taking 3 stormravens each time when barely anyone has defenses against them yet.

Congrats

OK way to assume there.

Been mainly running 2 but have grown to like 3, an in the last one my opponent had 2 vendettas. 2 of the games were against a really good player who didn't mind me running 2-3 flyers.


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An the game I lost was to a great Tau player who had no flyers or fortifications

Blood and Slaughter wrote:

by taking 3 stormravens each time when barely anyone has defenses against them yet.

In fairness I think most codices do actually have the tools to deal with 3 ravens, it's mainly that at the moment people either don't choose to take them (and the tools are not limited to weapons options in codices, flyers have in game weaknesses that can be exploited without necessarily shooting at them) or they panic when the flyers appear and concentrate more on them than on the mission.

And this is what I've been saying all along. It's fine to not take flyers if you have other anti-air tools, but some people seem to think you can ignore them. And this is why Ravens are a must for Grey Knights unless you are taking allies, because they just happen to be our only reliable method of anti-air (our math aside, even if 3 Dreads and a Quad took down one a turn, that's not reliable, and it is assuming that those means are still alive by turn 2).

valace2 wrote:
OK way to assume there.

Been mainly running 2 but have grown to like 3, an in the last one my opponent had 2 vendettas. 2 of the games were against a really good player who didn't mind me running 2-3 flyers.


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An the game I lost was to a great Tau player who had no flyers or fortifications

How is it an assumption when that is what you said?

daedalus-templarius wrote:

valace2 wrote:
OK way to assume there.

Been mainly running 2 but have grown to like 3, an in the last one my opponent had 2 vendettas. 2 of the games were against a really good player who didn't mind me running 2-3 flyers.


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An the game I lost was to a great Tau player who had no flyers or fortifications

How is it an assumption when that is what you said?

Where did he say he won 5 times specifically with 3 Ravens?

valace2 wrote:Well I am 5-1 in 6th ed games with transport Ravens an have only lost one
with boots onboard.

What?

So in some he had 2, this wasn't specified when he said this.

Your comment was kinda rude actually, you implied that it was a no brainer that I would win running three flyers without knowing the details of the games.

You're quite right, actually, I made a silly mathematical error, sorry.

Even so 23% chance of missing is in fact balanced by the fact that you will not always get one just hit.

But having done what I should have in the first place, here's some stats:

3 dreadnoughts firing at a zooming raven have a 41% chance of wrecking.

a quad gun has a 17% chance to destroy

the four units combined have a 66% chance to destroy (cumulative galnces making the difference)

Now a raven firing at a dreadnought not in cover has a 40% chance to destroy with its melta and a 17% chance with its 'psycannon' or a 15% chance with a lascannon.

Certainly a raven has a much better chance of destroying a dreadnought than the dreadnoughts and quad gun do a raven. Two ravens should (over the game) win the battle. But if they both come in on turn two, it'll take them til turn five (as a comnservative average) to do so. Assuming they can remain on the board and engage for all three turns.

You're forgetting that the Stormraven will most likely Jink, dropping your chances of wrecking that Stormraven to around 40%.
And you're dedicating 505 points of firepower to do it.so, we're still talking about expected kill value of ~90 points per turn of shooting from those 505 points.
Now, if that SR jinks you don't have to worry about it's shooting too much, I give you that. But unless no-one shoots back, you'll be hard pressed to kill two SR's during game with 3 Psyfleman and single quad-gun.

valace2 wrote:Your comment was kinda rude actually, you implied that it was a no brainer that I would win running three flyers without knowing the details of the games.

Taking 3 Ravens when not many people have proper defenses against them as a no brainer was what I was implying.


Also, why the hell are avatars not showing up on my browser when I don't have them toggled off?

Blood, remember that's a 40% chance for an explode result alone. He should be taking a second hull point with the Assault Cannon on average. Then the second Raven splits using POTM and kills that Dread with the Assault Cannon (last hull point) and still has a 40% chance to pop a second. All in one turn. If this happens, as is more likely the case than the Raven being downed first, then your chances of taking out one of the Ravens from then on is laughable.

Just to add, I realise you aren't arguing that Dreads will beat Ravens, I'm just adding to what you already said at this point.

Luide wrote:You're forgetting that the Stormraven will most likely Jink

No it won't 'cause then it either isn't flying high, or isn't shooting at full BS.

Godless-Mimicry wrote:Blood, remember that's a 40% chance for an explode result alone. He should be taking a second hull point with the Assault Cannon on average. Then the second Raven splits using POTM and kills that Dread with the Assault Cannon (last hull point) and still has a 40% chance to pop a second. All in one turn. If this happens, as is more likely the case than the Raven being downed first, then your chances of taking out one of the Ravens from then on is laughable.

Just to add, I realise you aren't arguing that Dreads will beat Ravens, I'm just adding to what you already said at this point.

Luide wrote:You're forgetting that the Stormraven will most likely Jink

No it won't 'cause then it either isn't flying high, or isn't shooting at full BS.

That all depends, if its an Ap1 or 2 an even more so if I have troops on board. If its Str7 or higher with troops on board I jink, if its ap 1 or 2 an no troops I prolly still jink.

Flyers aren't too bad, I played against Necrons with a few Scythes yesterday. I ran:

Rune Priest - Divination
Coteaz - Divination

10 Purifiers - 4 Psycannon, 3 Hammer, Razorback w/ Psybolts, Searchlight
5 WG - 4 Combi-melta, 1 Plain

4x 5 Grey Hunters - Melta, Rhino
10 Strikes - 2 Psycannon, Hammer on Justicar, Razorback w/ Psybolts, Searchlight
3 Henchmen - Razorback w/ Psybolts, Searchlight

5 Purgation - 2 Incinerator, 2 Psycannon, Razorback w/ Psybolts
2x5 Long Fangs - 4 Missiles
Aegis Defence Line - Quadgun

I was able to reliably hit the flyers and take them out. Prescience is magic. Big units with 2+ Psycannons and rerolls should reliably put flyers down. If you clog the field and use Coteaz's I've been expecting well you can even get multiple alpha strikes on the flyers. GK's shouldn't have much of a problem with the new meta-game since we have some of the best anti-infantry items/abilities (Cleansing Flame, Incinerators, Psycannons, Stormbolters).

Thing is though, that isn't a Grey Knight list, that's a Space Wolves list with a few Grey Knight Allies. Thus it doesn't entirely apply to discussion in the Grey Knight thread.

Played a 5 player game of Relic; Dreadknight was MVP. He absorbed so much fire and killed so many units; my rolls for him were on fire apparently.

They spent a couple turns shooting at the Paladin deathstar, but when Draigo saved everything off and then some, they decided to shoot at my allies instead (and my Dreadknight). Their MC Psycannons pretty reliably turned everything they fired at into mush, would have loved to bring Coteaz but when fighting an Eldar, pretty sure he would have just peril'd himself to death.

Quadgun fired at my friend's Vendetta for like 3 turns, scored a single glance, and the firer on it was BS5 how does that even happen.

Anyways, more math! (stuck at work)

AC dread has a 7.22% chance to take down (explode/wreck w/e) a flier per 4 shots

Roughly it will take you 11-10 psycannon shots (non-twin linked) to achieve the same same kill ratio at around 7.98 to 7.07% chance to destroy. With 4 shots each, that's about 3 psycannons! (if they jink save themselves of course)

casting divination on them will just require some 3-4 psycannon shots (or 1 psycannon) to get almost 7 to 9.8% kill chance

Quad gun with someone with BS 4 shooting it - about 18.16% chance to down an AV 11 flier.. You will need exactly 8 shots from combined 2 AC dreads to equal that kill chance. (with them jink saving for a 5+ of course)

It will take some 20 psycannon shots to equal that at non-twin linked (or roughly 5 psycannons - 2 to 3 squads of purifiers or 3 large squads of strike squads) without divination to equal that.

BTW just ran the numbers for a squad of 10, shooting 20 shots, you can get 38.66% of a wreck off on AV 11. If you are shooting at a Jink'ing skimmer, that's cut down to 18.13% wreck.

Vs shooting at a flier - 1.72% of a wreck, if they Jink, that's cut down to 0.57% wreck.

------------------------------------------------

Not very good odds :/

Bottom line though, good chance or at least decent of wrecking a rhino in a single round.

Just for comparison - for that 20 points, you can get say get 2 hunter killer missles for your anti-tank - and then get roughly 7.27% of a wreck for 2 shots with jink/5+ save. or 10.80% without a cover save.

Vs flier - 2.76% of wreck for those same 2 shots. Down to 1.84% to wreck with jink save.

Overall, pretty decent investment for a 20 point investment at 10man shooting 20 shots.

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The break even point appears (where you tie with the 2 hunter killer missles) - on non-fliers (damn fliers lol) is around 9 to 10 shots fired (so 5 man or 6 man with a psycannon, or 7 man with 2 psycannons if say using purifiers)

at 9 shots it's 6.89% vs 10 shots at 9.06%. With jink, it drops to 15-16 shots to break even. (so like 8 guys, or 10 guys with 2 psycannons, and less useful the more psycannons you take)

Quite interesting after running the math.

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Just for fun, Psycannons - 1 psycannon 4 shots shooting at fliers - 3.86% to destroy, 2.51% vs Jink save
2 psycannons -9.36% 5.57% with jink

Vs non-fliers:

1 psycannon - 2 shots ( assault mode) - 7.27%, vs 4.88% with jink
4 shots - 23.57% vs 12.83%
8 shots - 65.38% vs 38.91%

Stuff I dragged up from page 10 and 11. Want me to just stick this stuff on the first page? seems to come up alot

Psycannon vs flier (just for clarification) (AV 11) (assuming no skyfire and 5+ jink save)

4 shots - at least wreck - 2.49%
8 shots - 5.37%
16 shots - 13.26%

That's about 5% less chance as a quad gun, and you need about 4 squads of 5 man purifiers worth of psycannons to do this.

Vs AV 12 (5+ jink)

4 shots - 1.24%
8 shots - 2.63%
16 shots - 6.33%

As to the sw + gk discussion, I actually like that sort of thing and frankly it's one of my more favorite combos as it's got excellent psy defense as well as access to drop pods and some fany elite choices like a lone wolf that gives alot of tactical flexibility.

In my local area, we have the full on necron air force, which is already morphing to a more balanced list that I'm sure many of you guys will see soon. It is NOT easy to beat, heck I've still yet to beat it except when he first started it and only killed it when I went with SW allies/main what have you and drop pod assinated his one guy hiding behind LOS by turn 1 for a cheap win

My psy powers "abuse" as many have started calling it with psykers buffing the heck of eachother is making at least 2 people ally with just an eldar farseer on bike with some guardian for the compulsatory choice just to shut me down. Ork + rune of warding is a pain in the butt to fight as you can't depend on your cleansing flame or pie plates. This of course then has forced me to always take at least 1 raven just for the mindstrikes which are still painful to get past ghost helms... still working on assasinating that thing. Believe me, it's tough to get everything you want at 1500.

Quite alot of good points so far and I have a feeling that you guys often play at 2k? due to game lengths, we've cut everything down to 1500. an almost 500 point unit is a much bigger risk to take at these points. at 2k I can totally risk it. 1500, might be too risky to do on a long term basis. If it goes bad, it's practically an auto loss. If it goes good, you can do decent as the enemy can definately dance around.

They really need to FAQ Runes of Warding unless they just want everyone to take an allied Farseer with them to totally shut down everyone casting anything ever.

daedalus-templarius wrote:They really need to FAQ Runes of Warding unless they just want everyone to take an allied Farseer with them to totally shut down everyone casting anything ever.

Not really since unless you are Battle Brothers Runes of Warding will affect allies as well. There's more too it than that also, as taking the Farseer means spending points on a least an Eldar Troop choice, which is points not spent on your own army, which in a lot of cases is better. Unless you need to ally, it is best not to.

@sudojoe, we play 1850pts over here, though some events are now pushing to 1999pts to see how it goes.

Godless-Mimicry wrote:

daedalus-templarius wrote:They really need to FAQ Runes of Warding unless they just want everyone to take an allied Farseer with them to totally shut down everyone casting anything ever.

Not really since unless you are Battle Brothers Runes of Warding will affect allies as well. There's more too it than that also, as taking the Farseer means spending points on a least an Eldar Troop choice, which is points not spent on your own army, which in a lot of cases is better. Unless you need to ally, it is best not to.

@sudojoe, we play 1850pts over here, though some events are now pushing to 1999pts to see how it goes.

Well I guess I'll tell him this. If he chooses to bring them, no psychic powers for anyone!

He might be switching to Necrons anyway.

Not really since unless you are Battle Brothers Runes of Warding will affect allies as well. There's more too it than that also, as taking the Farseer means spending points on a least an Eldar Troop choice, which is points not spent on your own army, which in a lot of cases is better. Unless you need to ally, it is best not to.

Just not worth it for us to take really but as other armies likeTau, ork(even as desperate), DE, black templar, dark angel, and even some SM armies like bikes and IG, they can really shift the battle. With divination I can outshoot alot of folks, without, some of these fire power armies really have an edge.

One really good combo that's kind of been kind of overlooked lately I think has been Tau + Eldar. Really good long range fire power, buffs can go around, psy power defense, and alot of mobility to get out of assault range with jetpack moves.

Other than the necron air forces, flying daemons, and 2++ reroll combos (fate terminators/vect bomb), I have a feeling tau + eldar will be a force to be reckoned with after we get some nice balanced lists out there. Also don't count out nids, They've actually been a good challenge either that or the nid players near me have been pretty good.

Sorry to shift the convo back to flyers, but I see someone brought up a Farseer so I just have to comment. If I play Eldar now what will be the first thing to die? It will screw with communion, but I always try for the Warlord trait that allows rerolls on reserves, as soon as a Storm Raven hits the table it is going Farseer hunting, another reason I like the change to PotW that Farseer will be toast whithin 1-2 turns.