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 Overread wrote:
The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off.

This is in my opinion the correct strategy. and those members in the UK need to be aware of the consequences, now. The UK will have the same pattern curve as most western countries, but hopefully not Spain or Italy which were caught with their pants down. This was in come respects inevitable due to the relaxed culture of officialdom of most Mediterranean societies.

What this means is that virus spread will be bottlenecked if at all possible so the NHS only has to deal with a portion of the problem at a time. Now this will not be entirely possible but the UK will see major growth rather than exponential growth in infection cases.

We can expect:
1. Further measure will be taken.
2. Exposure risk will rise individually for the next two months or so.

I cannot forcast beyond that point.
So, what am I saying is: PREPARE NOW.
Get stocks in now, while the RNG for infection for a supermarket visit is relatively low. But tins and frozen goods, but powdered milk for your tea and breakfast cereal, even if you hate the stuff. Wean yourself off any goods that have to be fresh. There will be a peak virus time, you want to be isolated when that happens.
Also save up now. Employment may be heavily disrupted.
If you are quick quiet and level headed there is still much that can be done to improve your situation if you act now. Good luck and start prepping for peak virus.

 Overread wrote:

As for "losing loved ones" its a simple statement of blunt fact. To have avoided it or brushed it off would have been foolish. Confronting it head on in clear and simple language can be a key part in reinforcing the seriousness of the situation to many who might not feel at threat.

Agreed, though the prepared can mitigate the RNG.

You need to read between the lines. The government can prep people for casualties, they cannot tell people to stock up. Not for all 70 million of us, at once.

 Future War Cultist wrote:

I appreciate all that you said but Dakka can’t handle politics. That was proven multiple times over. Not even the staff could conduct themselves with any decorum. By all means concentrate on the science and supporting each other during this time but the politics won’t help.

Sorry but even the last page show otherwise, and nobody here is trying to be party political. The science and the social maneuvering relates to central policy. The politics is totally unavoidable unless you want to reduce the thread to uninformed base platitudes.

I'll add my own experiences to the mix, now.

My wife's a teacher, and her school district started Spring Break today. Yesterday they announced they'll extend it by two weeks, so she's off until April 6th. Me, I still have to go back to work on Monday. Telework is not an option for me, and the only way we're shutting down is if there is a government-wide shutdown, or someone with a confirmed case of the virus is in the building.

Last weekend I bought a big pack of toilet paper at Sam's Club (they were almost out), because I figured I better buy it now in case there isn't any to buy when we run out of what we have. Sam's was otherwise fully stocked of other stuff as the time. This morning I went to the same Sam's Club, and oh boy was it different. At least twice the number of usual shoppers, and about half all had the exact same contents in their carts: a case or two of bottled water, and a big pack of toilet paper and maybe paper towels. I had a bit of fun wandering throughout the store to see what was out-of-stock and what was still remaining. Lots of fish (fresh and frozen) and frozen vegetables left, but almost no meat (fresh or frozen) or fresh vegetables. The pork was all gone, the more expensive steaks were still there, and they were restocking the chicken while I was there. My wife was happy: Diet Coke was still in stock. Some shelf stable things were running low, like pasta, but still lots of canned goods still there.

 Galas wrote:
I don't think the herd inmunity theory will play out.
At the same time I'm no expert and tbh I believe this is taking all the world with the pants down, so even experts will have a difficult time predicting how things will play out (That doesn't mean we shouldn't trust them of course)

Agreed. Society is vulnerable not so much to the virus itself, but to the inevitable logistical disruption directly and indirectly, and to a sales plunge (possibly to near zero) for impacted industries, which can lead to profit warnings, job losses and possibly market disruption. Greed then might tip the whole thing into a general market collapse.

 Galas wrote:

Two weeks ago we were making fun of the chinese. A week ago from Italy. And we are here right now. At least other countries are taking example before things go so bad, unlike we did on Spain with Italy so close to us.

Two weeks ago I was getting trolled heavily for warning that this could get very bad. Not all of us were laughing.
That being said I didnt extend my prep, I had stores ready, so I bought sisters instead. I should have never bought the Sororitas army but should have thought, 'now I know what I am prepping for, how to I tailor my prep in the forewarning period?' I watched coronavirus and saw it had allt he chances of being bad, but didnt buy in specific epidemic prep related stores. So I have hand gel in stock but nowhere near enough.

You will be fine with soap and water, don't worry too much.

The worry I have with the herd immunity plan is it seems to throw the vulnerable under the bus for future economic benefit, it relies on certain assumptions about the virus being true, and it runs the risk of causing a catastrophic overloading on the NHS if the risk model is wrong.

However, basically the same things are true of most other approaches, only time will tell which approach is the correct one. I will be happy to be wrong if the UK approach works, but currently I think a more strict approach with an aim to containment is more prudent.

(fwiw I used to be a vet (as in animal medicine) epidemiologist and worked in risk modelling and prediction for the spread of parasitical diseases. Not viral, not human, obviously, but I have a fair grasp of the principles behind this. Risk models can easily be wrong when they are based on faulty assumptions or incomplete data, so likely most of the models we are working with will be off by a fair bit in one direction or the other. This is a problem when dealing with an exponential curve, because if you are off by a bit it results in a pretty steep increase in infections because of the nature of the curve.)

What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.

 Orlanth wrote:
Sorry but even the last page show otherwise, and nobody here is trying to be party political. The science and the social maneuvering relates to central policy. The politics is totally unavoidable unless you want to reduce the thread to uninformed base platitudes.

If it’s possible to lock out the trouble makers from the start then maybe. I still think it’s a bad idea though. I mean I completely understand were you’re coming from but past experiences here have jaded me.

 Gitzbitah wrote:

 warhead01 wrote:

 Gitzbitah wrote:
Florida, in the US, has closed all schools until the end of March and is deep cleaning them in the hopes of slowing the spread of the virus.

The schoolboard is also refusing to let anyone come back to work after traveling out of the country or going on a cruise until they complete a quarantine period.

2020 the year summer vacation came extra early.
That might explain why the grocery store was so busy.

Yeah, expect pre-hurricane grocery conditions for a week or so as everybody stocks up.

The weirdest thing is that my county, Hillsborough won't be losing any school days- after our Spring break is over, we're supposed to do online school for our students. Theoretically, we won't end up losing any time and Summer break will come normally.I'm very curious to see how it works, and I imagine the powers that be will watch our test scores with great interest.

Hopefully the bean counter will work it out quickly. Just across my FB feed now, my county has extended Spring Break for an extra week which may have been what you were talking about but it seems like a good plan as they students would be out of school for most of that already. Hopefully it'll be good enough.

I just spent 40 minuets vacuum sealing a bunch of dry food. My Dad has been using one of these sealers for years and gave us this one for Christmas. We're using the heck out of it.
Funny on the timing of everything, I just got an enormous chest freezer mid way through last year. Something like 24.8 cubic feet. Hopefully I can work up the energy to stuff our 3 pigs in there.

 Da Boss wrote:
You will be fine with soap and water, don't worry too much.

Thank you for the reassurance. I am not worried, just preparing myself as best I can. My worries I leave to God.

 Da Boss wrote:

The worry I have with the herd immunity plan is it seems to throw the vulnerable under the bus for future economic benefit, it relies on certain assumptions about the virus being true, and it runs the risk of causing a catastrophic overloading on the NHS if the risk model is wrong.

Love ones dying before thier time, in the relevant demographic might not be considered a tragedy by the government. The elderly are sitting on the housing stocks, taking up beds in residential homes and are drawing pensions. Horribly truth is Coronovirus will solve a lot of long term problems in the UK today. Be aware of this and prepare for a big write off. Meanwhile guard your elderly relatives with care. I have gone to great lengths to make sure my dad is stocked up. My mum is in nursing care home, and they have understandably shut their doors to visits.

 Da Boss wrote:

However, basically the same things are true of most other approaches, only time will tell which approach is the correct one. I will be happy to be wrong if the UK approach works, but currently I think a more strict approach with an aim to containment is more prudent.

Containment will not succeed, the incubation rate and R0 are against you. Then we have buttholes who consider isolation is an excuse for a bender:

Nice. 45 minutes on the train with a group of drunks celebrating being on isolation.
Coughing, wiping hands over the tables...
To be expected from your typical English inbred scum.

 Da Boss wrote:

(fwiw I used to be a vet (as in animal medicine) epidemiologist and worked in risk modelling and prediction for the spread of parasitical diseases. Not viral, not human, obviously, but I have a fair grasp of the principles behind this. Risk models can easily be wrong when they are based on faulty assumptions or incomplete data, so likely most of the models we are working with will be off by a fair bit in one direction or the other. This is a problem when dealing with an exponential curve, because if you are off by a bit it results in a pretty steep increase in infections because of the nature of the curve.)

The medical problems are unclear, and yes that hurts things. But lifestock are kept in pens or fields and culling is a thing. Animals do interrelate in complex webs though. You are far better placed than I to tell us what happens when an epidemic kills a portion of a species in an interrelated ecosystem.

 Da Boss wrote:

What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.

Most will, but it only takes one to get through. The points of failure will occur when people are in denial over infection, or down some cold remedy and go to work anyway, or in at least one nasty case go on a pub crawl after being diagnosed positive as a deliberate 'feth you' to society.

I’ve got tinned soup, dry and frozen food, soap, Kleenex, bin bags...and half a dozen Bombay Bad Boy Pot Noodles. I hope that’s everything...and that I don’t explode the toilet.

Also, karma?

https://imgur.com/gallery/K5gnlLO

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve got tinned soup, dry and frozen food, soap, Kleenex, bin bags...and half a dozen Bombay Bad Boy Pot Noodles. I hope that’s everything...and that I don’t explode the toilet.
Also, karma?
https://imgur.com/gallery/K5gnlLO

Trouble is people like that make requisition orders a thing. It would be justice for the local authorities to seize and use those supplies. But then authorities could end up going after conscientous preppers who prepared in the good times.

The UK and Ireland will be added to the US travel ban on Tuesday, largely due to rising number of cases (and possibly an expectation that the lackluster 'strategy' there will quickly ramp the virus up to Italy levels)

Ireland has a very different strategy to the UK.

 Da Boss wrote:
Ireland has a very different strategy to the UK.

I'm sure it does, but given that all of western europe is already on the ban list, and the UK is going on the ban list, it'd be a weird gap to leave them out.

Plus, honestly, its the US government. Just distinguishing between Ireland and the UK is a major accomplishment for them.

I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.

 Da Boss wrote:
I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.

Obviously. That was my point- it would be weird to leave them out because they're too interconnected with both the UK and (obviously) the EU.

You seemed to be objecting to including Ireland in the ban because they have a different strategy.

Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.

I went to like 4 stores today. Not one of them had toilet paper in stock and yes one was like a drug store.

Voss wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.

Obviously. That was my point- it would be weird to leave them out because they're too interconnected with both the UK and (obviously) the EU.

You seemed to be objecting to including Ireland in the ban because they have a different strategy.

To be fair to Da Boss, I read '...the lackluster 'strategy' there...' as referring to both the UK and Ireland, too. It does imply homogeneity of approach.


My uni has abandoned face-to-face teaching from next week. They're still paying those of us on zero hours contracts for teaching we will no longer give which is the absolute minimum they should do, but still a surprise. Schools staying open for now ut it feels a lot like they'll start closing. I'm in two minds about that. I have a lot of respect for the qualifications of Vallance and Whitty but am interested in the critiques of the UK approach appearing from other virologists and (many of) their calls to close schools and mandate isolation, too. I'm also very nervous about throwing poor and abused people under the bus. Not keen on playing 'who's my favourite vulnerable group'.

 timetowaste85 wrote:
Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.

Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.

A lot of people focused on getting the toilet paper like its mission accomplished. Just watched a Yong Yea video he did on that.

You cant keep chasing the problem after it happens, or you will after the next item on the list to have an outage. Stock up on what is there. By the time this crisis is done the stores will be missing a lot more than just toilet paper.

There was no bread or meat at one of my local stores. Also the toilet paper area was a desolation, for some reason though there was plenty of paper towels. My family members who work at schools are now out of work until the end of the month at the very least.

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

 timetowaste85 wrote:
Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.

Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.

The alternative was being like the idiots in my town who said they were gonna wipe their asses with paper towels. Ouch.

 Da Boss wrote:

What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.

Basically this. I see a lot of people trying to drag politics into it and make comments about how 'Boris doesn't care', or 'this strategy is imbecilic, what is the government doing', and so on. But the awkward truth is that really nobody quite knows how to handle this. Everyone's seizing all the research and stats that the Chinese are putting out and praying to God that it's accurate as they try model their response strategy/stats. But given how....liberal with truth the CCP are, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out in two years that casualities were six times as heavy as declared officially. In which case, all the models might as well be thrown out the window.

Yeah. Leadership is basically having to make decisions without all the information. And it must be very tough.
That is what you go in for when you try to become leader of a country though.

We will only see which strategy was right after this has played out. And even then, the analysis will probably allow for a lot of interpretation. As I said, I dislike Boris Johnson quite a lot, but I dislike Leo Varadkar too, and they both made pretty diametric calls on this. It isn't about whether I like them or not, it is a judgement call and there is a logic and an argument behind each one.

Even if they get it wrong, I probably won't feel that harshly toward them. Stuff like this is pretty hard to get right.

That said, I think claiming the disease is a hoax or downplaying it for political reasons is pretty despciable.

Alright guys. In Lithuania were are 8 confirmed cases. Just recently our minister had declared that Lithuania is shutting down. We had closed borders, all non essential (food, pharmacy) shops are closed. All public events are cancelled, Church is also heavily discouraged and religious authorities are likely to cancel it. Nation wide quarantine is announced for 2 weeks starting from Monday.

My worst fears came to be, I'm stuck at home with little to do. I did not took my miniatures or paints. I only took one army which is partly assembled and super glue with me. I hope my room will be still repaired as normal. Though, if worse comes be we will drive back to capital to rescue my gaming pc or my miniatures. Boredom is a main threat to me. Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop. Hmmm, we might as well go tomorrow 500 km total to save my miniatures from this quarantine!


Btw: I love UK's recent innovative solution to overcrowding.

I am gonna look like Shaggy from Scooby Doo at the end of this.

we officially got our first case of death related to corona virus. The deceased was of 81 years and suffered from a number of other serious illnesses.
all things considered we're not doing so bad right now, with 827 confirmed cases and 1 death so far, a pittance compared to other hotspots in EU and abroad.

 Ernestas wrote:
Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop.

Have you considered learning to cut your own hair? I started to ct my own on 06, it get's easier. And with a few weeks stuck at home, if you mess it up you can just cut it really short.

 Ketara wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:

What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.

Basically this. I see a lot of people trying to drag politics into it and make comments about how 'Boris doesn't care', or 'this strategy is imbecilic, what is the government doing', and so on. But the awkward truth is that really nobody quite knows how to handle this. Everyone's seizing all the research and stats that the Chinese are putting out and praying to God that it's accurate as they try model their response strategy/stats. But given how....liberal with truth the CCP are, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out in two years that casualities were six times as heavy as declared officially. In which case, all the models might as well be thrown out the window.

Frankly I think that Boris has made the correct call so far. Scientists will disagree with each other, and the press will seek out those who disagree with the governments position and give them disproportional air time. Had this happened under Theresa May we would be in much worse trouble. Brois Johnson is not a ditherer, and he has the balls to take a position and stick with it. I am sure he is taking good advice and looking at the big picture. The policy backs this up. Herd immunity is getting a lot of heat from some who think that just means let millions of people get infected and watch 2% of those die. Which is just sensationist. The hard fact is that millions will get infected anyway, it is a matter of managing the rate at which it occurs. Carry on as normal but socially distance is the correct policy, and the elderly have been asked to isolate, sick or not, for four months. I cant think of a better way of handling this without a lot of wishful thinking.
Now at least we know how long it is estimate tom take for herd immunity to develop. I hope this works.
Boris Johnson has had to u-turn on one element, closing large venues. This wasn't necessary but pandering to this doesnt hurt efforts and will help a little, so why not. If the public insist we shut down football, it is far better if it came from them to begin with. This government is not stupid.

As for the alternative, total lockdown. First it will not work as some people who are infected but pretends they are not for one way or another will get through. Also if it did work there is no immunity just a walled off section of the populace, when the lockdown emnds there will be a fresh wave of infection. The only beneficial solution is if the community is walled off long enough for a vaccine to be developed. Israel and New Zealand want to try this strategy. Good luck to them.

Keep calm and carry on. It's got us through worse times. When your biggest concern is lack of bog roll, I hardly think we're in that bad a place.

Oddly enough, reading this thread is the only thing that's raising my blood pressure on relation to this whole thing. When I've been out and about this weekend, everyone is just business as usual, thank god. Although I have been paranoid about sneezing in front of people...

 timetowaste85 wrote:

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

 timetowaste85 wrote:
Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.

Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.

The alternative was being like the idiots in my town who said they were gonna wipe their asses with paper towels. Ouch.

Good call, then.

If they have access to paper towels, what about Kleenex or napkins? It sounds like they want an excuse to get rough on their bums. And aren’t paper towels are needed for all the hand washing they should be doing?