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queen_annes_revenge wrote: Keep calm and carry on. It's got us through worse times. When your biggest concern is lack of bog roll, I hardly think we're in that bad a place.
Oddly enough, reading this thread is the only thing that's raising my blood pressure on relation to this whole thing. When I've been out and about this weekend, everyone is just business as usual, thank god. Although I have been paranoid about sneezing in front of people...
Population of a tad under 65 million, of which there are about 1140 known cases, and approximately 10k or so pre-symptomic.
You can go out and live life as normal and not get Cornavirus on anything but a crit fail, today. But those odds wont last long. Use the time.
Those people who are telling you to prepare are not doing so to scare you, but to wake you up to a rising danger. Don't be part of the Golden Horde, who don't prepare until it is way too late then get desperate and/or blame everyone else. If you ignore this long enough you might be caught up with a multitude of unprepared all out of the same gak. You will have blood pressure worries then.
Remember a conscientious prepper wants to be proven wrong. I would be happy for you to point to this thread in six months time and say I listened to you Orlanth and bought a lot of supplies yet it all blew over, and my cupboard is full of tins I dont need. I hope I am wrong here, I really do.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Overread wrote: The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off
Reminds me of the "flatten the curve" movement that started in late February. Essentially, social isolation has been shown to slow down transmission of a contagious disease to not overwhelm hospital beds. The irony is that, afaik, in the US, it's not an official CDC-recommendation, despite it being based on CDC paper back in 2007 to reduce the impact of contagious diseases. While US practices quarantine, it's been portrayed as part of a "containment" measure. With containment being less and less likely, this curve emphasizes "mitigation", meaning that we can't stop a contagious disease, but can at least slow it down so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. fwiw, Like vaccination, social isolation is a "herd effect", meaning that some of those who ignore taking precautions against the virus will still benefit, though will obviously be at higher risk. I'm interested in knowing the extent of permanent or long-term lung damage happens in recovered victims.
"It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent."
Overread wrote: The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off
Reminds me of the "flatten the curve" movement that started in late February. Essentially, social isolation has been shown to slow down transmission of a contagious disease to not overwhelm hospital beds. The irony is that, afaik, in the US, it's not an official CDC-recommendation, despite it being based on CDC paper back in 2007 to reduce the impact of contagious diseases. While US practices quarantine, it's been portrayed as part of a "containment" measure. With containment being less and less likely, this curve emphasizes "mitigation", meaning that we can't stop a contagious disease, but can at least slow it down so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. fwiw, Like vaccination, social isolation is a "herd effect", meaning that some of those who ignore taking precautions against the virus will still benefit, though will obviously be at higher risk. I'm interested in knowing the extent of permanent or long-term lung damage happens in recovered victims.
"It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent."
It also doesn't do a lot of good if only some places adhere to it. Here in Kentucky all the schools are closed down but the vast majority of my friends are still expected to go into work every day. We work in a variety of places that you would think should be closed down in this kind of event, restaurants, recreation, retail, and all sorts of other jobs that involve heavy interaction with the public. You know, the stuff that's recommended to close but for some reason isn't.
I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky. Especially stuff like retail, fast food, and pretty much any other entry level job. A lot of bosses wouldn't care if it's the zombie apocalypse, they'd still expect you to come in. I remember being a pizza guy and trying to call in sick. I could tell them I had a fever and my stomach was all torn up and their reaction would be "well you're the only driver for 4 hours, come on in for now and we'll just relieve you when someone else shows up" The best most places can hope for is that a coworker tests positive and has their position temporarily closed, and they get lucky enough to not catch it. Otherwise they just have to keep showing up and being put at risk by random folks who are either too stubborn to stay home while knowing their sick, people unaware they have it, or are people in their same boat and can't afford to stay home.
Yes, most of these people aren't at much risk themselves, but a lot of elderly work these jobs now to help with retirement. If this virus really does take a while to show symptoms while still allowing you to be a carrier, you've essentially screwed all the people in these positions and created ready made areas for Mass contamination. It essentially shows the massive problem we have in the USA with the stigma against sick leave and how a few morons abusing it ruined it for everyone. Times like this where we should be staying home and playing it safe just lead to people coming in sick because they can't afford to lose hours or worse, be considered lazy by management. Just like every. Other. Flu season. Ironically giving less sick days leads to more sick workers and less productivity, but good luck explaining that to whoever wrote the rules for most companies.
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I wonder what is going to happen with people who are public transport and other jobs, how are we going to make money for those who can't? Are they just going to lay down and drown in drought?
Its crazy to think we have never had this happen in the modern world.
We seriously have to consider some form of supplementary income.
From whom are unforgiven we bring the mercy of war.
Went to get more stuff at shops. Shops around me are still being hit hard.
Vinegars, soaps, handwashes, tissues, toiletpaper, hand towels, antibacterial wipes, disinfectants, dish drops etc all bought out.
Grabbed half a dozen bags of frozen green beans, peas and brussels. Most frozen veg were gone.
Grabbed a dozen cans of kidney bean/four bean mixes. Most canned food was gone. FETHING TINNED TOMATOES WERE GONE! and those make up half the bloody shelf.
Seeing as virus persists 48 hours on soft surfaces and 72 on hard, I suggest if you do end up eating out avoid handling salt/pepper shakers before eating (unless you are willing to wash your hands in between) as it is likely these are handled often but rarely washed.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 09:54:30
Ernestas wrote: Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop.
Have you considered learning to cut your own hair? I started to ct my own on 06, it get's easier. And with a few weeks stuck at home, if you mess it up you can just cut it really short.
this one is actualy my least problem. my natural hairloss came faster then i accepted and my mind cant tolerate that fact, so i removed the problem from my mind: set the buzzcutter to 1mm and cut my hair every 7 days.
But over to the bad news, allmoust 1100 infected and 3 dead in norway, we had more or less 0 infected by the end of februar.
So far just one person that was fully infected has recovered and the person describes it as a living hell to go thru.
The person was healthy and fit yet got the full force of it......
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Collects: Wild West Exodus, SW Armada/Legion. Adeptus Titanicus, Dust1947.
When? The classic 'KCaCO' period in the UK didn't really do that well in terms on keeping calm and carrying on. WWII saw rationing as a specific response to panic buying and the blitz brought a leap in rape, murder, robbery, and burlgary.
It's a thing to aim for, but we should expect, and be entirely prepared for, people to behave unpredictably and selfishly, and appealing to a misleading social memory doesn't get us very far, I don't think.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 12:10:00
I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
My trip to New York in late June is now in question :(
Weak, weak sauce.
My assumption is the summer is pretty much cancelled. I was meant to be at a wedding in Chicago in June and had work in Israel and Iraq coming all of which I expect to fall. Holiday to Turkey also expected to be cancelled. I have a conference in Boston in November. Maybe that will pan out...
MrMoustaffa wrote: I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky.
You are absolutely correct that this is a problem. Schools are closing, but what if both parents have to work? Furthermore, many Americans do not have health insurance, have a high deductible, or otherwise have a disincentive to go to the hospital -- including simply not showing signs during the incubation period. The incubation exceeds 14 days, so taking two weeks off doesn't really solve anything. (IIRC, The two-week quarantine period is based on MERS (?) or another virus, since that's all the information they had at the time. Now, the incubation period is as long as 27 days.)
Pretty obviously, if we know who has the virus, we can do something about it. But we can't. The CDC have been incompetent in testing for the virus. IIRC, They did not use test kits used in other countries, then, when they did issue test kits, half (?) of them were faulty. On top of this a scarcity of test kits meant that, at least at one time, someone had to have been traveling to be tested, so "community spreaders" went undetected. : https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/a-single-coronavirus-case-exposes-a-bigger-problem-the-scope-of-undetected-u-s-spread-is-unknown/
As for accessibility to health care, take a look at this video. Jump to 2:00. Essentially, it explains that our current system, with multiple private insurers with fewer customers each, has less leverage over hospitals than public insurance (eg. Medicare, VA) so has higher costs. In other words, it's the classic, "Why can they charge so much? Because they CAN."
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 13:16:24
MrMoustaffa wrote: I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky.
You are absolutely correct that this is a problem. Schools are closing, but what if both parents have to work? Furthermore, many Americans do not have health insurance, have a high deductible, or otherwise have a disincentive to go to the hospital
Put simply, the ability to self-isolate is a class issue. Unfortunately, given the intense need for immediate funding to deal with the virus, you can't address the surrounding social issues. Consequently, loads of people are going to find themselves evicted, in extreme debt and so on. In the worst situations, abused people are going to be mandated to stay in a pressure cooker 24-hours a day with their abusers for weeks on end. Then there's the homeless.
And that's everywhere. Nations with extremely expensive, or very poor, healthcare are massively worse. It's certainly going to lead to some serious ruminations on the delivery of healthcare and the appropriate ways to prepare for pandemics (but not on this board!)
Nightlord1987 wrote: I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
I'm really sorry. I felt really bad for the workers in my local super market. I think they should be given gloves and maybe masks already to help protect them. The rest of us are relying on you guys keeping going to keep us fed. Thanks for doing this.
Harvard epidemiologist expresses disbelief over the UK's herd immunity plan. I wonder whether this will be like the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK, where the government under Tony Blair took steps based on a risk model that did not factor certain costs into it's calculations, resulting in a devastating outcome for farmers.
I hope not. But it seems like the UK approach is a pretty big gamble.
Edit to add: It should be uncontroversial that a private, insurance based and individualistic system is worse at preventative medicine. In a situation like a pandemic, prevention becomes even more important and those problems become even more apparent. However, it is the choice of those countries to have systems like that. Ireland has a similar (not quite as extreme) system and I expect it to collapse. When it does, people should reflect on how they have enabled the system to be created in this way and never voted in large numbers to change it. It is too late now to do anything about it.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 13:29:09
I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. except for meats because we don't have enough room in our freezer to keep a lot. But we have a local small family butcher shop nearby that has great quality stuff so I'll just be going there, they were pretty cleaned out yesterday but they get new stuff in twice a week. I got a pork belly brining away to turn into bacon next weekend. They also have a market down the road with fresh milk from their own cows, eggs from their own chickens and lots of dried beans and veggies. They make a great veggie soup mix. So they will be getting more of my business over the next few weeks. I usually just go there every other month or if I want some special cut of meat to try something new. We're all stocked up on paper goods and cleaning supplies, my fiance always has tons of stuff stocked up, our cabinets are always full. She's a clean freak. I also ordered a bunch of different types of beans online the other night, so we'll have plenty of stuff in the pantry to keep us going (and farting) a while. One thing we are missing are cans of tomatoes, how can we have pasta without tomatoes? It's just not Italian that way. I think it's just this first week or so that there will be a mad dash to get everything in sight, it'll calm down soon.
Nightlord1987 wrote: I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
I'm really sorry. I felt really bad for the workers in my local super market. I think they should be given gloves and maybe masks already to help protect them. The rest of us are relying on you guys keeping going to keep us fed. Thanks for doing this.
Harvard epidemiologist expresses disbelief over the UK's herd immunity plan. I wonder whether this will be like the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK, where the government under Tony Blair took steps based on a risk model that did not factor certain costs into it's calculations, resulting in a devastating outcome for farmers.
Foot and mouth was very different. Blair was grandstanding, he wanted to make flashy decisions that made him look good. Effectivness wasnt a relevance. The farmers were not compensated decades later for lost herds.
The EU also got involved, banned UK produce, even from uninfected areas, and demanded large scale culling. There was an outbreak in France. Farmers shot infected cattle, buried them, the diseas became locally in the farming community as 'le JCB' because of how infected cattle were buried. Government and EU both turned a blind eye.
I hope not. But it seems like the UK approach is a pretty big gamble.
All approaches are gambles. First gamble is taking the correct decision rather than the one that best appeases the public. I am very pleased that the government are not pandering on this one. This is the strategy so lets follow it, and if the press howl let them howl. There has been a lot of outside the box thinking going on, like talking to arms manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers to build medical ventilators. This is so different from normal procedural thinking.
Edit to add: It should be uncontroversial that a private, insurance based and individualistic system is worse at preventative medicine. In a situation like a pandemic, prevention becomes even more important and those problems become even more apparent. However, it is the choice of those countries to have systems like that. Ireland has a similar (not quite as extreme) system and I expect it to collapse. When it does, people should reflect on how they have enabled the system to be created in this way and never voted in large numbers to change it. It is too late now to do anything about it.
This and the lack of social provision for low paid workers will bite America on the arse very deeply soon. This could well be the catalyst for the public, in real danger by this point the populace might for once become stronger force than the lobbyists. Socialism has many problems but the US has gone too far the other way for too long, when the middle class suffer alongside the poor, and problems are too pressing and cannot be ignored then it will no longer how much funding lobbyists have to spend, change must come.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Necros wrote: I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. e
Bad idea. Very bad idea. Go to your supermarkets, wear a mask (bit like your avatar) if you can. You need two months minimum, preferably four in hard supplies. Also supermarket visits are likely to be safe for now. You can catch COVID-19 in public in the US right now, but chances are still low. Roll those dice. You do not want to have to go out for supplies one month from now. First there might not be many, second there may be queues where they are, or rationing or both. Worst of all the % risk of infection will be a lot higher.
Do not be a fool. Prepare now. If I am wrong you end up with a full larder, no biggie, if I am right you have mitigated a lot of trauma that may well be headed your way. I do not want to be right, but my track record in this thread has been accurate so far.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/03/15 15:52:53
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
I would estimate we have about 3-4 months worth of paper goods along with dried / canned food like soups, rice and beans. We also have a big stock of dehydrated fruits that we mostly use for dog treats, mostly apples. But maybe 2-3 weeks worth of meat in the freezer, that's the most we can store. I do have a lot of space taken up with premade frozen work lunches that I make with dinner leftovers, so we're gonna be eating those up first to make room for more meats. Mostly chicken and pork since it's cheaper than beef, we'll probably just do ground beef and a few chuck roasts. Thinking about signing up for an online meat service like Butcher Box where you get a bunch of stuff every month. We also have a lot of bottled water since my fiance never drinks tap water. So we keep a good stock of stuff, and we just replenish what we use weekly.
I've been wanting to get one of those dead body chest freezers to put in my garage, but our garage is too small and it'll be tough to fit the cars inside, we don't have large SUVs (A jeep compass and buick encore) but i swear they design those things for mini coopers
I may head to the grocery store early in the morning this week, but I'll probably wait till around wednesday so they can restock some stuff now that the panicy types are hopefully done. But I'd rather stick to the small stores, I'd rather support those guys anyway.
One thing we really need is some new jars of Better than Bouillon, that stuff is liquid gold.
Necros wrote: I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. except for meats because we don't have enough room in our freezer to keep a lot. But we have a local small family butcher shop nearby that has great quality stuff so I'll just be going there, they were pretty cleaned out yesterday but they get new stuff in twice a week. I got a pork belly brining away to turn into bacon next weekend. They also have a market down the road with fresh milk from their own cows, eggs from their own chickens and lots of dried beans and veggies. They make a great veggie soup mix. So they will be getting more of my business over the next few weeks. I usually just go there every other month or if I want some special cut of meat to try something new. We're all stocked up on paper goods and cleaning supplies, my fiance always has tons of stuff stocked up, our cabinets are always full. She's a clean freak. I also ordered a bunch of different types of beans online the other night, so we'll have plenty of stuff in the pantry to keep us going (and farting) a while. One thing we are missing are cans of tomatoes, how can we have pasta without tomatoes? It's just not Italian that way. I think it's just this first week or so that there will be a mad dash to get everything in sight, it'll calm down soon.
Mac n cheese?
With bacon?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 16:34:59
Necros wrote: I would estimate we have about 3-4 months worth of paper goods along with dried / canned food like soups, rice and beans. We also have a big stock of dehydrated fruits that we mostly use for dog treats, mostly apples. But maybe 2-3 weeks worth of meat in the freezer, that's the most we can store. I do have a lot of space taken up with premade frozen work lunches that I make with dinner leftovers, so we're gonna be eating those up first to make room for more meats. Mostly chicken and pork since it's cheaper than beef, we'll probably just do ground beef and a few chuck roasts. Thinking about signing up for an online meat service like Butcher Box where you get a bunch of stuff every month. We also have a lot of bottled water since my fiance never drinks tap water. So we keep a good stock of stuff, and we just replenish what we use weekly.
Paper goods? If these are edibles then, OK, your good then. Three months stores is reasonable and if SHTF comes you will be able to stretch three months to four. I would still buy more if and when you can, but you can more or less consider yourself a prepper now, whether accidental or no. When the music stops you have a full larder, that is what counts.
I may head to the grocery store early in the morning this week, but I'll probably wait till around wednesday so they can restock some stuff now that the panicy types are hopefully done. But I'd rather stick to the small stores, I'd rather support those guys anyway.
Panicky types are a fixture until this is over. As more people will wake up and try to prepare as things get worse. Also some panicky types wont know when to stop, or will prep for the wrong reasons, trying to buy way more than needed and resell at ludicrous prices. If SHTF comes those people will be first to be targeted by the Golden Horde, noone likes a gouger.
One thing we really need is some new jars of Better than Bouillon, that stuff is liquid gold.
It's all gold when you are hungry. Last tip for you. Dont advertise your prep. Neighbours are friendly now, but if SHTF comes they will be at your door soon enough, and may be increasingly desperate.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 16:59:33
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
From what I'm aware even the closed borders are still open to deliveries and shipments. Food should continue to remain accessible through most of this disaster. The biggest risk is if food processing factories are forced to shut down and one would think it would be more effective to provide them with protective equipment so that they can continue to produce food (accepting that most should be pretty safe environments anyway in terms of germ control).
The highest risk is certainly at the supermarket level for staff - agian they could be provided basic training and PPE (gloves/mask*) to, again, provide a safe service.
If this had hit during harvest time it might be another matter, but we are leaving winter and going into spring. In theory this means food stocks, at least of many core produce, should be accessible.
*yes I'm aware it doesn't stop you breathing it in; but it does stop you rubbing your mouth with your gloved hand by accident
Da Boss wrote: A decent mask is at least effective against droplets, which is better than nothing.
There is a service gas mask in the garage. It is old but well wrapped so it should not have degraded much. Will it be of any use?
I dont mind looking a fool, but only if there is a benefit. It might be of use later.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Rest of the world better hope us doesn't find vaccine first. Seeing trump tried to get german company to sell potential vaccine to us on us only terms...non us company better find out vaccine first.
Too bad likeiy no international law against that kind of hostile stunt
By paper goods I meant TP, paper towels, stuff like that. I really don't feel that food supply chain will be messed up, there might be small disruptions here and there and some items slow to restock, but once the lemmings get through their panic buying in the beginning and stores start to restock it will get better. I really think it will be fine as long as I don't see zombies in my yard.
tneva82 wrote: Rest of the world better hope us doesn't find vaccine first. Seeing trump tried to get german company to sell potential vaccine to us on us only terms...non us company better find out vaccine first.
Too bad likeiy no international law against that kind of hostile stunt
I imagine he'd rather play the US up as the saviour of the world.
Da Boss wrote: A decent mask is at least effective against droplets, which is better than nothing.
Which is funny, because our media is quick to point out that masks do not help against the virus. This is obvious lie, but I'm thinking why they would tell it. It is probably just ignorance, but desire to limit demand for masks might be also another cause, though it is very far fetched.
In the end, I believe this is Nurgle's blessing. We simply struggle to see the beauty and elegance of his gift to mankind.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/03/15 18:25:06
"If the path to salvation leads through the halls of purgatory, then so be it."
Death Guard = 728 (PL 41) and Space Marines = 831 (PL 50)
Slaanesh demons = 460
Khorne demons = 420
Nighthaunts = 840 points Stormcast Eternals = 880 points.
The best most places can hope for is that a coworker tests positive and has their position temporarily closed, and they get lucky enough to not catch it. Otherwise they just have to keep showing up and being put at risk by random folks who are either too stubborn to stay home while knowing their sick, people unaware they have it, or are people in their same boat and can't afford to stay home.
