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 kodos wrote:

Vorian wrote:
You're changing your argument.
Did having no points probably affect sales? Sure, it was unpopular.
Changing that was obvious because it basically only had up sides for GW.
What's at issue is that sales collapsed due to rules. That's just an unsupported statement on many levels.

points were not the only thing that changed, but what else was the reason that AoS did not sell until the rules were changed if it was not the rules?

or is you argument that AoS must have sold well and the change just increased the sales because we don't have numbers for low sales?
than what was the reason for the big change at GW HQ if not the low sales for AoS?

and no, my argument is still the same
AoS crashed on release because of the rules, and this crashed caused all sort of changes at GW

regular FAQ/Errata, interaction with the community, at least trying to make playable rules for their games happened because AoS did not sell with the initial rules released

You still have no idea if it crashed, how it compared to Warhammer before or what any changes before or since were due to.

I also have no idea so won't go writing nonsense pretending I do.

All I can see is GW basically continually selling out everything it can produce and announcing record revenue and profits.


Re: Warmaster, depends on what your definition of success or failure is. It died along with all the specialist stuff and obviously not all that can be described as a failure given the amazing sales on their return.

But even if we imagine Warmaster was a failure, the one thing you couldn't blame it on would be the rules - which as stated were generally looked upon very well.

None of this is absolutely anything to do with GW's made to order promise for Kill Team and the effect that has had (namely on scalpers).

 endlesswaltz123 wrote:
None of this is absolutely anything to do with GW's made to order promise for Kill Team and the effect that has had (namely on scalpers).

It seems like they haven't had to dip into the MTO promise at all, so I guess either the promise worked and scalpers stayed away, or maybe GW overestimated the popularity and there was no risk of it selling out.

Yeah, though as stated on the previous page, eBay would suggest scalpers are still making coin. I also think it was potentially poor timing for the pre-order/release.

End of the month is fine for the release, but the middle of August, a typical holiday period that is expensive, I wonder how many people felt they couldn't afford to pre-order at the moment, maybe not a huge amount, but potentially enough to creep into a perceived overstock.

Finally, and baring in mind I have ordered two sets, maybe the price was prohibitive enough for some customers to not order multiple sets like many usually do (I've been extremely tempted to order a third today, but I've held off).

 endlesswaltz123 wrote:
Yeah, though as stated on the previous page, eBay would suggest scalpers are still making coin.

I checked ebay and it didn't seem like there were a ton of scalpers up, only a few, and not tons sold, so I don't know if they're really making much off it.

There'll always be a few weirdos who will pay a big price for something, but it doesn't seem like ebay is crawling with Kill Team scalpers at this point.

Or maybe I'm just missing the listings you're referring to.

People will also buy to resell the parts at a profit but that isn't really scalping.

So long as the release is limited then scalpers will make money. The further away we get from the release, the more they can charge. GW can try whatever antics they want, until they change the basic dynamics of the release being limited, then scalping will bring in money.

If the box is available as MTO and you have X days to order a thing you will be guaranteed a copy of, then IMO that's not limited. I'd argue it isn't even FOMO since we know the Kommando's and DKoK minis will also be available separately. So at most you'll miss out on Ork modular terrain which while cool, isn't really the selling point of the box.

 Gert wrote:
If the box is available as MTO and you have X days to order a thing you will be guaranteed a copy of, then IMO that's not limited. I'd argue it isn't even FOMO since we know the Kommando's and DKoK minis will also be available separately. So at most you'll miss out on Ork modular terrain which while cool, isn't really the selling point of the box.

The terrain will also be available later.

So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

 kodos wrote:

 Wha-Mu-077 wrote:

 kodos wrote:
GW has also proven that if the rules are too bad, sales collapse over night

Did that ever actually happen?

ever heard of the first Version of AoS?
this was not selling until they added something that at least looked like rules to the game

Somewhat a case in point:

First red dot is release of AoS. Second red dot is when points were added. Blue dots are half year reports. 40K 8th came in on the green dot and wouldn't have reported sales until the FYE, so the circled area encompasses whatever sales bump AoS getting points had. But do note that WHC come online at the magenta dot as well as a lot of hyped 40K releases so it's quite hard to discern the real impact. In either case the stock prior was very, very flat.

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

I dunno if the Octarius book will be available separately?'

Reviews have said that the Octarius book is basically what outlines how you should be playing the game, and currently it's only in the boxed set.

And where did that chart come from, given GW don’t, and have never, published by system sales results externally?

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
And where did that chart come from, given GW don’t, and have never, published by system sales results externally?

It's the stock price, not the sales.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

I dunno if the Octarius book will be available separately?'

Reviews have said that the Octarius book is basically what outlines how you should be playing the game, and currently it's only in the boxed set.

It probably will be, since one of the incentives to buy it will be the Missions inside utilising the Ork terrain. It also contains the Veteran Guard and Kommando rules (for KT anyway). I imagine GW will want you spending an additional £30 for those as well as your actual, separate box of them.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
And where did that chart come from, given GW don’t, and have never, published by system sales results externally?

Sorry - to be clear that's just a stock price overlayed with events.

On the green dot GW reported 158M up from 118M ( 2016 ), 123M ( 2015 ), and 123M ( 2014).

Now I will say that before WHC the half year report of May 16 to Nov 16 was up to 70M from 55M so there was a significant bump after AoS points, but before WHC. Some of that could have stull been 40K given the supplement frenzy in that timeframe.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

I dunno if the Octarius book will be available separately?'

Reviews have said that the Octarius book is basically what outlines how you should be playing the game, and currently it's only in the boxed set.

Wouldn't be shocked if the Octarius stuff ends up in the Octarius book...or if they'll do "Kill Team" dedicated branded boxes.

 Gert wrote:
If the box is available as MTO and you have X days to order a thing you will be guaranteed a copy of, then IMO that's not limited. I'd argue it isn't even FOMO since we know the Kommando's and DKoK minis will also be available separately.

To me, FOMO means there is a relevant amount of sales happening due to that fear of mission out; as in those sales would not have occurred otherwise. That is the whole point after all; to generate additional sales.

Do we really think there are a decent number of people buying these limited boxes who would not have if they weren't limited? The only block I see would be scalpers, who aren't in the FOMO category.

Personally I feel it is just that launch boxes are a great way to drive hype and get a lot of product into the community in a burst (which drives community engagement). There is no sinister ulterior motive. But there are a lot of people who want there to be. Especially now with the whole debacle around warhammer+ and content creators people are unhappy with GW and are actively looking for more reasons to justify that. So they see malice where there is none, peers who like GW become brainless sheep, and so on.

But taking a step back it's pretty funny, because there is a laundry list of legitimate criticisms to level against GW that so often go unmentioned in favor of the flavor of the month accusation. Maybe they fear missing out on the latest insult?

It hurts immediate sales when you announce everything will be available separately and a new box is coming every 3 months.

I appreciate the honesty from GW for once. Instead of getting pissed off because we missed something, or paying for things we perceive as having no value (terrain,rules,tokens,models). We can just wait.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 kodos wrote:

 Wha-Mu-077 wrote:

 kodos wrote:
GW has also proven that if the rules are too bad, sales collapse over night

Did that ever actually happen?

ever heard of the first Version of AoS?
this was not selling until they added something that at least looked like rules to the game

Somewhat a case in point:

First red dot is release of AoS. Second red dot is when points were added. Blue dots are half year reports. 40K 8th came in on the green dot and wouldn't have reported sales until the FYE, so the circled area encompasses whatever sales bump AoS getting points had. But do note that WHC come online at the magenta dot as well as a lot of hyped 40K releases so it's quite hard to discern the real impact. In either case the stock prior was very, very flat.

This chart is entirely useless for evaluating the direct financial impact of a game or product line on GWs business operations, stock performance is not directly tied to a companies financial success, there are many companies out there that have their ticker price *drop* despite increases in revenues and sales due to perceived future headwinds, etc. making future growth seem unlikely and thus triggering selling action, etc. I.E. "correlation does not equal causation" when it comes to ticker price.

An actual accounting of GWs financial reporting is more helpful, and conveniently has been floating around online for quite some time:

And where are the markers for the revenue brought in as they shilled all the video game licenses and black library with H.H. Books?

 Theophony wrote:
And where are the markers for the revenue brought in as they shilled all the video game licenses and black library with H.H. Books?

They don't usually break out BL revenue at all, but thats irrelevant anyway because the HH series had been going for basically the entirety of that timeline.

The video game license shilling is basically irrelevant, the revenue generated from licensing in total was about 1.5 million GBP in 2015, 6 million in 2016, 7.5 million in 2017, 9.9 million in 2018 (which is where the timeline ends). Since then its grown to around 16.5 million GBP, but still only a miniscule fraction of GWs total revenue.

So the main Octarius orders (delivery on the 28th) are out of stock. I'm surprised the "made to order" version isn't back up and taking orders, at least for the next week.

 Breotan wrote:
So the main Octarius orders (delivery on the 28th) are out of stock. I'm surprised the "made to order" version isn't back up and taking orders, at least for the next week.

They said it was only for the weekend.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

 Gert wrote:
If the box is available as MTO and you have X days to order a thing you will be guaranteed a copy of, then IMO that's not limited. I'd argue it isn't even FOMO since we know the Kommando's and DKoK minis will also be available separately.

To me, FOMO means there is a relevant amount of sales happening due to that fear of mission out; as in those sales would not have occurred otherwise. That is the whole point after all; to generate additional sales.

Do we really think there are a decent number of people buying these limited boxes who would not have if they weren't limited? The only block I see would be scalpers, who aren't in the FOMO category.

Personally I feel it is just that launch boxes are a great way to drive hype and get a lot of product into the community in a burst (which drives community engagement). There is no sinister ulterior motive. But there are a lot of people who want there to be. Especially now with the whole debacle around warhammer+ and content creators people are unhappy with GW and are actively looking for more reasons to justify that. So they see malice where there is none, peers who like GW become brainless sheep, and so on.

But taking a step back it's pretty funny, because there is a laundry list of legitimate criticisms to level against GW that so often go unmentioned in favor of the flavor of the month accusation. Maybe they fear missing out on the latest insult?

100%. The boxes are essentially GW's method of discounting – Dual boxes (quarterly sale), Christmas bundles (annual sales), and launch boxes (whatever you call a sale that happens 2 out of every 3 years), with Broken Realms/Apocalypse/etc. combos sprinkled in on occasion.

I think people's frustration was that these customer appreciation discounts were being hoarded/scalped by people who saw it primarily as a way to soak fans financially. This MTO promise is a great way to split the baby – fans get a realistic crack at the savings while GW doesn't have to offer the discount in perpetuity. For all the flak GW has caught over animations and their treatment of staff, this is a good example of how to do things right.

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

Discount.

tneva82 wrote:

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

Discount.

Yea, and I wouldn't call the Kill Team box at official GW price much of a discount.

Goose LeChance wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

 Gert wrote:
So to recap, the DKoK, Kommandos, terrain, and rule book will all be available separately. Which leaves, what? The board and maybe a mission booklet?

Discount.

Yea, and I wouldn't call the Kill Team box at official GW price much of a discount.

Checked up how much books etc cost? Add to that terrain and models. Compare to kt price. There's your discount.

When everything comes out separately, you'll see that it really was at a discount.

For GW it does more so, because they pay dividends and higher sales pays a better dividend thereby boosting stock. That chart agrees with mine. Stock and revenue were really flat until WH:C and/or AoS and/or 40K campaigns lifted sales. Honestly I'd go with WH:C being the biggest driver.