This one actually has the potential to be a problem, unlike Ebola. Ebola is too easily contained and too deadly to spread in anything other than poor hygiene environments.
Coronavirus's real benefit over Ebola is that it can spread during the incubation phase and isn't too deadly. Which means this disease actually has the potential to spread even in societies that practice basic hygiene.
We're not at the stage where anybody should be panicking though. For all the hype, we're still talking about something only a few thousand people have contracted. If we assume the Chinese are heavily downplaying the number of people getting sick and say maybe its tens of thousands instead, that is still a tiny number of people.
The real test will be, now that it is in the US, if the # of US cases skyrockets to a few thousand in the next week or so then we might have a real issue.
As for how fast its spreading in Asia, I actually wonder if the cultural inclination for habitually wearing face masks and over-sanitizing everything contributes to weaker immune systems which leads to diseases spreading faster when they do occur. You might not catch the flu as often, but you're more vulnerable when a real disease comes along.
Grey Templar wrote: This one actually has the potential to be a problem, unlike Ebola. Ebola is too easily contained and too deadly to spread in anything other than poor hygiene environments.
Coronavirus's real benefit over Ebola is that it can spread during the incubation phase and isn't too deadly. Which means this disease actually has the potential to spread even in societies that practice basic hygiene.
We're not at the stage where anybody should be panicking though. For all the hype, we're still talking about something only a few thousand people have contracted. If we assume the Chinese are heavily downplaying the number of people getting sick and say maybe its tens of thousands instead, that is still a tiny number of people.
The real test will be, now that it is in the US, if the # of US cases skyrockets to a few thousand in the next week or so then we might have a real issue.
As for how fast its spreading in Asia, I actually wonder if the cultural inclination for habitually wearing face masks and over-sanitizing everything contributes to weaker immune systems which leads to diseases spreading faster when they do occur. You might not catch the flu as often, but you're more vulnerable when a real disease comes along.
agreed. make or break time coming up.
Is China playing it up to look worse or something to scare the rest of the world? They're making it look really terrifying!! the conspiracy theory part of me says this actually has something to do with the trade war.
I believe the Fatality rate is around 2%, where the 1917-18 Spanish Flu was closer to 18%? Meanwhile, the normal Flu has killed something like 2K people in the US this year and no one is losing their mind.
To be fair though, the Spanish Flu struck at the tail end of World War One, and we've got much better health care systems today than a hundred years ago.
AlmightyWalrus wrote: To be fair though, the Spanish Flu struck at the tail end of World War One, and we've got much better health care systems today than a hundred years ago.
True, but that is the last Pandemic we can compare for future/current pandemics.
We also travel a lot more than we used to. From what I understand the incubation period of the coronavirus is 10-14 days, and its fully infectious even when you have no symptoms, which makes it pretty hard to contain. Doesn't matter if its only 2% lethal if a billion people get it.
Because of their high population densities many diseases that start or have a major outbreak in China can appear to be far worse than they actually are to the general world population; especially once you add proper safeguards and medicalcare on top.
It's a bit like how Ebola was all the fear for a year or so, but it wasn't actually a massive threat once you took into account the fact that it only spread so fast and so heavily in its originating country due to poverty, education and social reasons (I believe one big reason was that women preparing bodies for burial were coming directly into contact with infected body fluids which is primarily how Ebola spreads).
I'm afraid that the media does somewhat hype things up from time to time with things like this; a bit like how each year the UK gets "worst weather on record predicted for winter" and "snowstorms could cause chaos" etc.... even when we go through an exceptionally mild winter where much of the country hasn't even seen more than one or two short morning frosts, let alone actual ice or snow.
It's a worrying pattern because it means when we do get something major that is an actual threat in a big way, many will overlook it as "media hype". [and yes I do realise that me saying this means that I'm already buying into my own theory - potentially).
We will have to wait and see what happens in the next two weeks. As mentioned above the incubation period is up to two weeks and asymptomatic carriers apparently are infectious. It's estimated there could be 100,000 people going about infected but so far without having fallen ill.
All that being said, so far we have 81 deaths in a city of 11 million people. China kills 5.5 people a day in road accidents, which will have dropped significantly during their current transport lockdown.
China has thrown insane money into their construction though. So not only can they do it, but they've got the prefabs and infrastructure already in place to allow building on that kind of scale. It's the same way they can build new cities and towns and such in a fraciton of the time it would normally take most countries.
Though I've heard that their construction industry is basically a ticking time bomb before they basically run out of stuff to build/demand for building and it implodes and contracts
kb305 wrote: Well i just lost a gakload of money on my stock market investments. WHO raises risk from moderate to high. over 100 dead now.
This is getting pretty sketchy.
Comparatively, the response has been pretty good. (The last major disease outbreak, which was SARS, they tried to hide it). This time they're doing the right things, though the infectious incubation period complicates it.
The real risk is other countries are pretty varied in locking down travel, and in many cases waited too long to start screening arrivals from Wuhan and the surrounding regions, but so far international cases are very low.
We're actually past due for a major epidemic (they happen on fairly predictable cycles, and crowded urban conditions should make them much worse than they are, thanks to science and medicine), and by the standards of such things, this is looking pretty mild (2% death rate is fairly low). It may well get worse, but so far the deaths are largely elderly or had existing respiratory problems. Its not the kind of disease that has healthy people dropping dead in the streets.
Crispy78 wrote:This blew my mind. China reckons they can get a new hospital built for this in 6 days...
Like others have said, prefabs. We're not talking about a state of the art hospital, but a big series of buildings with space for a lot of beds, and maybe some decent lab space with some passable isolation doors.
They'll roll in mobile equipment and generators while they hook into local power and hope they don't brown-out the district.
Its a good thing to do, because they'll be able to sort and isolate the infected from the general population, but at best its warm beds and functional facilities for a few months.
At worst it'll be a plague pit with additional complications from the rushed construction, particularly in the area of sewer/water.
Overread wrote: I'm afraid that the media does somewhat hype things up from time to time with things like this
I have to speak out here--it is unfair to lump the overreaction on media. Media is just perpetuating the response, regular people are perfectly capable of starting an overreaction on their own. Not only that but it is people's desire to view over-reactive content that pushes the media to produce such content.
What I think is interesting is that just prior to hearing about the Coronavirus, I saw a few memes about how there have been epidemics/pandemics in the 1920s, 1820s, 1720s and all the '20s of each century going back to the Black Plaque of the middle ages.
Don't know how true it is, but it would certainly be an interesting thing to study.
Galef wrote: What I think is interesting is that just prior to hearing about the Coronavirus, I saw a few memes about how there have been epidemics/pandemics in the 1920s, 1820s, 1720s and all the '20s of each century going back to the Black Plaque of the middle ages.
Don't know how true it is, but it would certainly be an interesting thing to study.
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Thing is with urban living, plagues and such can spread really fast through a population - especially if understanding of how disease spreads and basic facilities, living conditions etc... are really poor.
It also makes sense that after a lethal epidemic you'd have a period where the population density would have reduced which would then take time to recover. You might still get a major outbreak of something during the recovery period, but because the population would be much reduced and spread out chances are it would spread through far less of the population before it simply can't find means to get carried to a fresh uninfected population. Plus the numbers would be much reduced so it might not appear "as bad" even if it is far more lethal on a per infected person level.
Also when it comes to recovery remember that with reduced medical understanding and poor environments etc... the child mortality rate might be very high (especially in the poorer, more densely populated social groups). So chances are it would take time to build up to a critical point of high population density once again. Though that would get complex and other things can come in - such as the baby boom we saw after WWII
So it wouldn't surprise me if you could see this pattern happening over and over again, though it would honestly shock me if it hits every 100 years on the dot like that. I would assume that the meme might well be inaccurate in that regard. It might be they are using the wrong dates; or could even be that whoever came up with it cherry picked events to fit the timescale. Once you look at a global pattern you could pick different regions and likely get closer. If they then consider the 20s as a 10 year period rather than a single year - again you increase the chance that you could have an "accurate" meme. It just wouldn't mean that you get a global disease outbreak only every 100 years on the dot.
Nature can throw up some surprising cycles and patterns, but its rare that they are so perfectly timed to human timescales.
Now here's the scary part. Imagine someone infected with this virus working in a fast-food joint. Up to two weeks of working with people's food while being contagous but asymptomatic is scary.
That's how it's going to explode in America, if it gets that far. Just one fast-food worker could infect tens of thousands...
Thank God this happened in the Chinese interior. China has the infrastructure and civic doctrine to shut down a city. If case zero was in London we would all be fethed.
For once I am backing the CPC and wishing them well in their endeavours.
Build a 1000 bed hospital in four days, the West cant do that.
I am impressed frankly.
Now as for the bug. I would not be complacent it is already a big killer and has every chance to become a Pandemic. I suspect it already may be. Yes, it has under a 2% mortality, but that is in China, and China moved quickly and competently and Wuhan is an internal migration hub with a relatively younger healthier demographic. This could be almost as bad as Spanish flu, we will know if the natural death rate is higher once it hits places like Africa. 2% likely wont jump to 18% but it wont remain at 2%.
Meanwhile we have global communications far in advance of 1919 and a culture of take-a-pill-and-get-back-to-work due to current marketplace attitudes to sick time. We have only this early window to contain the virus, once we get a secondary breakout in a country with less centralised control and slower civic responces than China, which frankly means just about everywhere else, this has every chance to get very nasty indeed.
Keep an eye on this one, it will be a long campaign, if there is a major outbreak anywhere else it will then go global, you cant put a virus with a long latency period back in the box. Its a race for containment, then a race for vaccine.
Orlanth wrote: Thank God this happened in China. China has the infrastructure and civic doctrine to shut down a city. If case zero was in London we would all be fethed.
For once I am backing the CPC and wishing them well in their endeavours.
Build a 1000 bed hospital in four days, the West cant do that.
I am impressed frankly.
I fully expect CPC members to under-report or flat out lie about the number of cases and how fast it is spreading to both their own government as well as the WHO. CPC leadership had to pointedly threaten their own members about it.
Western governments haven't been ruthless about this sort of thing because we haven't had to be. If we needed to be, we would. It doesn't take much convincing to get police and military to use lethal force to keep potential plague carriers OVER THERE, NOT OVER HERE.
Orlanth wrote: Thank God this happened in China. China has the infrastructure and civic doctrine to shut down a city. If case zero was in London we would all be fethed.
For once I am backing the CPC and wishing them well in their endeavours.
Build a 1000 bed hospital in four days, the West cant do that.
I am impressed frankly.
I fully expect CPC members to under-report or flat out lie about the number of cases and how fast it is spreading to both their own government as well as the WHO. CPC leadership had to pointedly threaten their own members about it.
Western governments haven't been ruthless about this sort of thing because we haven't had to be. If we needed to be, we would. It doesn't take much convincing to get police and military to use lethal force to keep potential plague carriers OVER THERE, NOT OVER HERE.
Remember sars?
Yeah even their own people don' t trust their numbers.
Overread wrote: Because of their high population densities many diseases that start or have a major outbreak in China can appear to be far worse than they actually are to the general world population; especially once you add proper safeguards and medicalcare on top.
The reason people get worried about a coronavirus say above others is that it is a virus that only has a single strand RNA. Us, for example, have a double helix DNA structure which provides advantages in that any random mutations are usually locked away behind the still functioning properly 'other part' of the instruction. This breaks slightly during reproduction as it splits and you merge two strands (which is why certain disabilities can be hereditary and stronger in boys/men) - but effectively this is the dirty side of evolution and I digress.
With the coronavirus with only one strand of RNA means that it can mutate rapidly. As it grows and divides rapidly then the number of potential mutations that can arise can be staggering. It might not be too lethal now (although there is one report of a doctor dying from it), however a mutation could make it more infectious, easier to transmit and potentially more lethal. This is where the risk lies. Without any effective antivirals it could mutate and become devastating in a short period of time. Cities aren't isolated now because of the current risk, it is because of the future risk. The wider it gets into the population the more likely it is to mutate (just statistics) but also if it does mutate to lethal levels then you have already contained (sacrificed) the population in that area but that lethality is much less likely to get out.
Orlanth wrote: Thank God this happened in China. China has the infrastructure and civic doctrine to shut down a city. If case zero was in London we would all be fethed.
For once I am backing the CPC and wishing them well in their endeavours.
Build a 1000 bed hospital in four days, the West cant do that.
I am impressed frankly.
I fully expect CPC members to under-report or flat out lie about the number of cases and how fast it is spreading to both their own government as well as the WHO. CPC leadership had to pointedly threaten their own members about it.
Western governments haven't been ruthless about this sort of thing because we haven't had to be. If we needed to be, we would. It doesn't take much convincing to get police and military to use lethal force to keep potential plague carriers OVER THERE, NOT OVER HERE.
Remember sars?
Yeah even their own people don' t trust their numbers.
That was then, this is now. China has contingencies, which is why they had a prefab hospital ready to build at short notice. I very much doubt we are as well prepared. China learned from SARS, one of the lessons is that the CPC doesn't need a propaganda reaction, plagues are not their fault, cover ups do not work and have no value. The talk about unreported cases is just scaremongering, the numbers are quickly quietly rising because latent cases develop into symptomic illness, not because Chinese propagandists are losing control of the numbers.
I can imagine what will happen if this reaches a city in the UK. Mass handout of masks like in China? No. First there will be a select committee to make the action, lets us say it moves quikcly. Then they have to find contractors they will milk the system, civil servants will get procedural and politicians will dither. considerations over cost will be raised by the Treasury and the NHS will grandstand because it may mean a bigger departmental budget next year. A massive amount of talk and paperwork will be generated before anyone actually does anything tangible about the problem.
Then what happens if you needed to lockdown Birmingham or Glasgow because there are seventy cases recently found (hypothetical). First the police will be sleepy, and at most semi-competent, the local authority will be unresponsive and leaders will be more concerned with their reelectability than solving the problem. Then along comes human rights groups protesting any seal, other groups demanding that not enough is done for one or other subsector of the community when resources will be scarce in total, meanwhile the press goes ape and dials everything to 11.
Meanwhile infected people who dont give a feth about anyone will take some cold remedy and go back to work as usual, either out of denial or because they work the gig economy and if they don't work they don't get paid.
That was then, this is now. China has contingencies, which is why they had a prefab hospital ready to build at short notice. I very much doubt we are as well prepared. China learned from SARS, one of the lessons is that the CPC doesn't need a propaganda reaction, plagues are not their fault, cover ups do not work and have no value. The talk about unreported cases is just scaremongering, the numbers are quickly quietly rising because latent cases develop into symptomic illness, not because Chinese propagandists are losing control of the numbers.
Ever heard of the Mandate of Heaven? In China, disasters are viewed as the fault of the current government. If it happens on your watch, you're at fault because it's on your watch.
Just maybe China has learned they can't keep stuff like this under wraps anymore. Not like they could during SARS.
As for that hospital, we'd probably just set up tents, because that prefab hospital will be abandoned and fall apart within a few years, just like the one they built for SARS was. A 'permanent' structure is overkill.
Point is they built it. I doubt we have contingencies even remotely as sophisticated. You any idea how much BS and red tape there is to set up medical infrastructure in most western countries.
I doubt we even have the tents.
Vulcan wrote: Now here's the scary part. Imagine someone infected with this virus working in a fast-food joint. Up to two weeks of working with people's food while being contagous but asymptomatic is scary.
That's how it's going to explode in America, if it gets that far. Just one fast-food worker could infect tens of thousands...
I'll believe the worldwide epidemic scare-fest when I see it. In the meantime, what-ifs can be anything; "what if an asteroid we haven't seen coming hits earth tomorrow and kills all life?"
Ouze wrote: [
What if it hit a known hub for human trafficking?
No more serious than any other port. Human trafficking numbers are miniscule compared to legal travel, and it occurs near transport hubs anyway, so the extra people wont make a difference.
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NinthMusketeer wrote: I'll believe the worldwide epidemic scare-fest when I see it. In the meantime, what-ifs can be anything; "what if an asteroid we haven't seen coming hits earth tomorrow and kills all life?"
No. I reject that utterly. Asteroid impacts can happen and are only remotely scary because we are now aware of them, but the odds are astronomically low, literally, major impacts are tens of millions of years apart. Supervolcanoes are more of a threat and they are tens of thousands of years apart.
A virus with a long latency period is not something to be handwaved away. You are infectious prior to onset of symptoms, so it spreads very quickly and efficiently, and it doesn't kill its host quickly. This is a dire threat, 2% fatality is a huge number when you consider the number of people it can effect. A normal flu bug can run through a large portion of the population, literally millions of people. A bug that kills 2% of those kills a lot of people.
Those are direct casualties, then you have to factor in poverty and ill health as factors. So the average selfish jackass who gets coronavirus, decides not to tell anyone but takes some cold medicine and gets back to work is ok, its the vulnerable people around him who are truly at risk.
If this gets out of its Wuhan cage it can kill a lot of people, especially if it reaches places that are densely populated and relatively poor, once that happens worldwide spread will be impossible to stop.
There is a difference between alarmism and rational concern. This is rational concern, the virus is holding a lot of the cards, its easily spread, has already mutated so it may mutate again hampering efforts to contain, infectious prior to onset of symptoms and has a low enough lethality that it can spread very far. Those are all rational concerns. However China is doing a good job of containment, foreign governments are taking this threat seriously with quarantine measures being implemented by several governments. I have every confidence that the can best this bug, but not every confidence that we will.
Take a look around you. Governments do not implement mass quarantine for giggles, people from multiple jurisdictions with more info on this virus than Dakka members are taking fairly extreme measures, measures that are socially as well as politically costly. Australia has announced full 14 day quarantine for all people who visit Wuhan, so has France. They are not pissing about.
Ouze wrote: [
What if it hit a known hub for human trafficking?
No more serious than any other port. Human trafficking numbers are miniscule compared to legal travel, and it occurs near transport hubs anyway, so the extra people wont make a difference.
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NinthMusketeer wrote: I'll believe the worldwide epidemic scare-fest when I see it. In the meantime, what-ifs can be anything; "what if an asteroid we haven't seen coming hits earth tomorrow and kills all life?"
No. I reject that utterly. Asteroid impacts can happen and are only remotely scary because we are now aware of them, but the odds are astronomically low, literally, major impacts are tens of millions of years apart. Supervolcanoes are more of a threat and they are tens of thousands of years apart.
A virus with a long latency period is not something to be handwaved away. You are infectious prior to onset of symptoms, so it spreads very quickly and efficiently, and it doesn't kill its host quickly. This is a dire threat, 2% fatality is a huge number when you consider the number of people it can effect. A normal flu bug can run through a large portion of the population, literally millions of people. A bug that kills 2% of those kills a lot of people.
Those are direct casualties, then you have to factor in poverty and ill health as factors. So the average selfish jackass who gets coronavirus, decides not to tell anyone but takes some cold medicine and gets back to work is ok, its the vulnerable people around him who are truly at risk.
If this gets out of its Wuhan cage it can kill a lot of people, especially if it reaches places that are densely populated and relatively poor, once that happens worldwide spread will be impossible to stop.
There is a difference between alarmism and rational concern. This is rational concern, the virus is holding a lot of the cards, its easily spread, has already mutated so it may mutate again hampering efforts to contain, infectious prior to onset of symptoms and has a low enough lethality that it can spread very far. Those are all rational concerns. However China is doing a good job of containment, foreign governments are taking this threat seriously with quarantine measures being implemented by several governments. I have every confidence that the can best this bug, but not every confidence that we will.
Take a look around you. Governments do not implement mass quarantine for giggles, people from multiple jurisdictions with more info on this virus than Dakka members are taking fairly extreme measures, measures that are socially as well as politically costly. Australia has announced full 14 day quarantine for all people who visit Wuhan, so has France. They are not pissing about.
Exactly. Governments have and are proving extremely capable of dealing with this issue. When was the last time the first world had an epidemic? How many casualties were there? How many reasons for harm and or death are more likely to affect the average person? Rational concern would be the impact that the stress of worrying about coronavirus will have on your health, people have plenty of that already and don't need more. I absolutely do not support giving people needless stress.
Exactly. Governments have and are proving extremely capable of dealing with this issue. When was the last time the first world had an epidemic? How many casualties were there? How many reasons for harm and or death are more likely to affect the average person? Rational concern would be the impact that the stress of worrying about coronavirus will have on your health, people have plenty of that already and don't need more. I absolutely do not support giving people needless stress.
Sounds like complacency to me. Governments are taking this seriously, that doesnt mean they will win.
a case in point:
I'll believe the worldwide epidemic scare-fest when I see it.
When you see it you have already lost.
Here is the problem, the virus only needs to break out long enough to spread. Governments need to contain it on an ongoing basis until the virus burns out or there is a vaccine. The problem here is that containment is expensive, economically and socially and governments may be under pressure to release containment measures if no progress of the virus is found. Sadly this can lead to premature action and the proliferation of the virus.
We're not at the stage where anybody should be panicking though. For all the hype, we're still talking about something only a few thousand people have contracted. If we assume the Chinese are heavily downplaying the number of people getting sick and say maybe its tens of thousands instead, that is still a tiny number of people.
Wasn't there a report yesterday from a Chinese nurse claiming the number is actually in the 90k range?
Exactly. Governments have and are proving extremely capable of dealing with this issue. When was the last time the first world had an epidemic? How many casualties were there? How many reasons for harm and or death are more likely to affect the average person? Rational concern would be the impact that the stress of worrying about coronavirus will have on your health, people have plenty of that already and don't need more. I absolutely do not support giving people needless stress.
Sounds like complacency to me. Governments are taking this seriously, that doesnt mean they will win.
a case in point:
I'll believe the worldwide epidemic scare-fest when I see it.
When you see it you have already lost.
Here is the problem, the virus only needs to break out long enough to spread. Governments need to contain it on an ongoing basis until the virus burns out or there is a vaccine. The problem here is that containment is expensive, economically and socially and governments may be under pressure to release containment measures if no progress of the virus is found. Sadly this can lead to premature action and the proliferation of the virus.
What do you propose people actually do then? Because without action this is just giving people more stress they don't need. I may not LIKE people in general but I don't believe in needless suffering, even if that is merely stress over something with an irrelevant chance of happening.
Also when was the last epidemic in the first world and what were the casualties? I am honestly interested in that information if anyone could point me in the right direction.
The Spanish Flu was the last major worldwide epidemic. It killed millions, even in developed countries. The thing is its often forgotten because it happened at the same time as WW1, so its danger gets overlooked.
Yes, we learned a lot and have plans for the next epidemic. The thing is that that ability for modern society to contain a worldwide epidemic has never been put to the test. We simply haven't had one yet. And that's the reason a lot of people are rightfully concerned, we've had a century to prepare for a worldwide epidemic but haven't actually tested it. We don't know if we're ready, but time is up. Worldwide epidemics are cyclical and happen roughly every 100 years or so, so we are overdue and its a little concerning.
NinthMusketeer wrote: What do you propose people actually do then? Because without action this is just giving people more stress they don't need.
First world problems.
People outside the western bubble deal with stress all the time. Real nasty stress, like daily life in Iran or North Korea, or dealing with guerillas in the nearby jungle, or Ebola, or the tsetse fly etc.
Coronavirus is genuinely scary, welcome to hard reality. Toughen up a bit. Dont let fear consume you.
I may not LIKE people in general but I don't believe in needless suffering, even if that is merely stress over something with an irrelevant chance of happening.
The chance of this reaching the west is reasonably high. It already has but it has been contained. It only needs to break containment, proliferate in a high traffic environment and be detected too late for it to spread worldwide.
The good news is that like living in a village next to roaming tigers, you are unlikely to perish, but it will happen to someone. Say you catch Coronavirus, unless you are very unhealthy you are likely to survive, and even if you are not healthy western medicine gives you a fighting chance. Its a flu, so once you have had it and rolled your d100 and passed you don't need to worry about it again. You will not be making death saves every week.
Cancer and heart disease are far bigger risks, as are automobiles, yet you probably are not losing sleep over them. Place coronavirus in perspective, its a genuine risk, its however not like you are being called up to fight the Germans and have to take a troop ship through U-boat infested waters to make a beachhead invasion on the other wise then a land campaign.
We westerners are too soft nowadays, life has inherent persistent risk for most people outside the golden billion. Only occasionally like this does risk come to all.
Also when was the last epidemic in the first world and what were the casualties? I am honestly interested in that information if anyone could point me in the right direction.
People outside the western bubble deal with stress all the time. Real nasty stress, like daily life in Iran or North Korea, or dealing with guerillas in the nearby jungle, or Ebola, or the tsetse fly etc.
Coronavirus is genuinely scary, welcome to hard reality. Toughen up a bit. Dont let fear consume you.
Smug platitudes aside, the question still stands - what do you want people to *do*?
It's not like a natural disaster where people can stock up on supplies, or evacuate, there's no action that can be taken ahead of time. So it really is useless stress.
NinthMusketeer wrote: What do you propose people actually do then? Because without action this is just giving people more stress they don't need.
First world problems.
People outside the western bubble deal with stress all the time. Real nasty stress, like daily life in Iran or North Korea, or dealing with guerillas in the nearby jungle, or Ebola, or the tsetse fly etc.
Coronavirus is genuinely scary, welcome to hard reality. Toughen up a bit. Dont let fear consume you.
Oh, that's where you are at. Nevermind then.
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Grey Templar wrote: The Spanish Flu was the last major worldwide epidemic. It killed millions, even in developed countries. The thing is its often forgotten because it happened at the same time as WW1, so its danger gets overlooked.
Yes, we learned a lot and have plans for the next epidemic. The thing is that that ability for modern society to contain a worldwide epidemic has never been put to the test. We simply haven't had one yet. And that's the reason a lot of people are rightfully concerned, we've had a century to prepare for a worldwide epidemic but haven't actually tested it. We don't know if we're ready, but time is up. Worldwide epidemics are cyclical and happen roughly every 100 years or so, so we are overdue and its a little concerning.
Exactly! Just look how bad the West reacts to major natural disasters. It takes hours to pledge resources, and a day or two to send rescuers and materials across the globe from multiple countries. Horrible and inefficient.China and other authoritarian regimes are much better at under-reporting...there is no war in Ba Sing Se.
Exactly! Just look how bad the West reacts to major natural disasters. It takes hours to pledge resources, and a day or two to send rescuers and materials across the globe from multiple countries. Horrible and inefficient.China and other authoritarian regimes are much better at under-reporting...there is no war in Ba Sing Se.
Meanwhile in switzerland, local chinese swiss double citizens (often critical of the regime) are organizing via societies help and ressources...... on top of the federal council.
But we are unprepared, (milions of masks ready, not to mention tents and military hospitals allready existing) underfunded () and not capable of fast solutions and medtech (ever been in basel?) and we are not ready to help our neighours (even tough we joke about ours, doesn't mean we wont help them and work with them also scientific integration is at an all time high with the EU).
But i reccomend to you happily willfully suporting the regime orlanth, you are a real hero of the (soon to be looking at the radishes from under the earth) people.
As serious as this may or may not turn out to be, listening to the news and YouTube being full of vids, I really can’t help the urge to go home after work and put the division on the Xbox.
People outside the western bubble deal with stress all the time. Real nasty stress, like daily life in Iran or North Korea, or dealing with guerillas in the nearby jungle, or Ebola, or the tsetse fly etc.
Coronavirus is genuinely scary, welcome to hard reality. Toughen up a bit. Dont let fear consume you.
Smug platitudes aside, the question still stands - what do you want people to *do*?
It's not like a natural disaster where people can stock up on supplies, or evacuate, there's no action that can be taken ahead of time. So it really is useless stress.
Sometimes there is little you can 'do' to fight the virus. Trick is not to feel powerless because of that, and no that isn't being smug, its just a bit of common sense.
Awareness is key. If coronavirus spreads you will receive warning in time. Don't panic. If it hits your town wear a mask even in public, avoid restaurants and cook at home. Don't shake hands, don't touch your face with your hands and wash your hands with clinical gel like you do when you visit a hospital. Take basic precautions and risk is minimal.
If you do get infected dont keep it to yourself, inform your doctor. Stay at home, follow medical advice, avoid contact with people. Everyone in the west except the very poorest or most infirm will be ok. Diseases of this kind kill those well below the poverty line and not others.
NinthMusketeer wrote: What do you propose people actually do then? Because without action this is just giving people more stress they don't need.
First world problems.
People outside the western bubble deal with stress all the time. Real nasty stress, like daily life in Iran or North Korea, or dealing with guerillas in the nearby jungle, or Ebola, or the tsetse fly etc.
Coronavirus is genuinely scary, welcome to hard reality. Toughen up a bit. Dont let fear consume you.
But i reccomend to you happily willfully suporting the regime orlanth, you are a real hero of the (soon to be looking at the radishes from under the earth) people.
Orlanth wrote: So the average selfish jackass who gets coronavirus, decides not to tell anyone but takes some cold medicine and gets back to work is ok, its the vulnerable people around him who are truly at risk.
I'd like to remind you the 'average selfish jackass' who doesn't have sick leave doesn't have much choice; it's show up or get fired.
Worse, Mr. Average there is contageous with this bug for two weeks before he even knows he has it. You can't really be mad at someone who doesn't call in sick when they aren't sick!
Orlanth wrote: So the average selfish jackass who gets coronavirus, decides not to tell anyone but takes some cold medicine and gets back to work is ok, its the vulnerable people around him who are truly at risk.
I'd like to remind you the 'average selfish jackass' who doesn't have sick leave doesn't have much choice; it's show up or get fired.
Worse, Mr. Average there is contageous with this bug for two weeks before he even knows he has it. You can't really be mad at someone who doesn't call in sick when they aren't sick!
This is taken into consideration. Someone who doesnt know they are ill cannot be blamed and it is a force multiplier in favour of the virus that it has this dynamic.
However there are plenty of selfish jackasses who know they are ill and dont give a feth about anyone else. Here is a nasty example from history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon
Even hire and fire societies generally have contingencies in place for events like this. 'I got fired because I didn't turn up for work because I had coronavirus' will get you a lot of support even if you have non-unionised employment. Governments will help these cases because they know the consequences of not doing so. Most sane employers will also be understanding.
What is more likely to happen is people turning up for work knowing they are sick because it means extra money.
Oh don't worry, the only emotions I am struggling with here are pity and contempt.
Sadly for you they are not justifiable.
Coronaviruas might cause you stress so why discuss it? We discuss it because it is topical and we can keep each other informed.
You may be lucky, most viruses dont like cold temperatures so snowflakes might be immune!
Oh don't worry, the only emotions I am struggling with here are pity and contempt.
Sadly for you they are not justifiable.
Coronaviruas might cause you stress so why discuss it? We discuss it because it is topical and we can keep each other informed.
You may be lucky, most viruses dont like cold temperatures so snowflakes might be immune!
You must never need to visit the barber with discussions going over your head that fast.
Orlanth wrote: So the average selfish jackass who gets coronavirus, decides not to tell anyone but takes some cold medicine and gets back to work is ok, its the vulnerable people around him who are truly at risk.
I'd like to remind you the 'average selfish jackass' who doesn't have sick leave doesn't have much choice; it's show up or get fired.
Worse, Mr. Average there is contageous with this bug for two weeks before he even knows he has it. You can't really be mad at someone who doesn't call in sick when they aren't sick!
I appreciate someone actually trying, but considering Orlanth's posts consist of asserting how other people think/feel then decrying those asserted thoughts/emotions as badwrong for not being identical to his own thoughts/emotions there's really no point trying to have a conversation.
I can see why Ninth disengaged on this, it's quite unappealing to see someone textually masturbating like that.
I appreciate someone actually trying, but considering Orlanth's posts consist of asserting how other people think/feel then decrying those asserted thoughts/emotions as badwrong for not being identical to his own thoughts/emotions there's really no point trying to have a conversation.
This is a serious issue that requires serious thought. The subject matter is not pleasant and human nature is often dark and selfish.
Cynicism may sadly well be realism when an outbreak occurs.
We see this a lot in the thread already about China bad this and China bad that, while they are fighting this fight. Few stop to think about the mismanagement that western government can descend into in a crisis of this nature. While the west has had no human epidemics there have been several animal ones, and mishandling in government, scare amongst the populace and gross selfishness is sadly rife.
However to go back to your actual comment. Evidently you have been assuming on how it 'feels' rather than reading the actual text. I am a rationalist and don't hold back for anyone, if you want to take a piece of me come back this a logical counter and I will stand my ground and read it, rather than an ad hominem on 'feels'.
Also please show some mental integrity rather than accusations of 'textual masturbation'.
It's hard to say as there isn't decent mortality data yet (most of those with the disease are still in hospital),
but it's far less lethal than SARs or MERs (actually a bad thing as it's spread is a lot worse as people don't become symptomatic until they've plenty of time to infect others)
I suspect it's going to be comparable to Flu, possibly one of the bad strains (but not end of WWI pandemic flu), at the moment those showing up at hospital with severe symptoms seem to be elderly or those with messed up immune systems or lung problems (which depressingly includes me)
It's hard to say as there isn't decent mortality data yet (most of those with the disease are still in hospital),
but it's far less lethal than SARs or MERs (actually a bad thing as it's spread is a lot worse as people don't become symptomatic until they've plenty of time to infect others)
I suspect it's going to be comparable to Flu, possibly one of the bad strains (but not end of WWI pandemic flu), at the moment those showing up at hospital with severe symptoms seem to be elderly or those with messed up immune systems or lung problems (which depressingly includes me)
Mortality for coronavirus is listed at 2%, I think slightly less than that, so lets round down and call it 1%.
So if there are 41 million cases like 2019 flu there will be 410,000 deaths at 1% mortality 820,000 deaths if mortality is at 2%. Now if this reaches Africa, or poorer parts of Asia mortality could well exceed 2% due to poor infrastructure and access to advanced healthcare.
This wouldnt be as bad as Spanish flu or heavens forbid, the plague, but it would count as a major epidemic. Mongolia has now shut the border with China. Things like this don't happen for regular flu.
NinthMusketeer wrote: That makes me wonder how much of the diseases' potency relies on Chinese respiratory health, which is dramatically different than most countries.
Different in which way? Searching....
https://aqicn.org/city/wuhan/ Wuhan pollution data, doesnt look good, most figures in the orange at time of posting.
That's actually a very good point, air quality is very low in a lot of big urban areas for China. Their almost insane growth has come at a cost and one is environmental damage from their development and factories. I suspect that becoming ecologically green is, at some stage, going to become important for them* and one can only hope that their accelerated development speed makes them accelerate their drive to improve the quality of their environment - accepting that already vast damage has already been done.
* I think the Olympics had some effect on this when they were shown up having tides of green waste seaweed from their offshore farms. However I also recall that they shut all the factories around one major urban area for around a month to clear the air for a major celebration. The fact that it took a month (I might have been several months I can't recall) to clear and yet only a day or two to get back to where it was once the factories were turned on - has to be something that is alerting the population to their problems. Even if only in relation to air quality.
And how does one misunderstand your boss telling you "Get your backside in here, I don't care HOW sick you are!"?
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
Moreover, 45 percent of Americans have no paid sick leave at all, according to a 2016 study published in the journal Health Services Research.In the more than 100 comments on Mr. Kurutz’s article, readers talked about what it’s like to work while passing a kidney stone, undergoing cancer treatment and coping with other illnesses. Some managers described their insistence that sick employees stay home and rest.
Nearly a quarter of US adults have been fired or threatened with the sack for taking time off to recover from illness or to care for a sick loved one, according to Family Values at Work, which campaigns for paid leave.
This climate is particularly tough for women, who are still the main caregivers for young children and elderly relatives, says Leanne DeRigne, whose research suggests some families could be spending more on medical bills because they are delaying treatment rather than taking time off.
It can also have serious repercussions for public health.
According to a recent report from Robert Half, 57% of employees sometimes come in to work while sick, and 33% always come in to work while sick, which means that as much as 90% of workers go to work while under the weather.
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
That's not remotely how any of that will happen.
It is how it has already happened. I even gave a link. During the typhoid epidemics the infected were expected not to turn up for work, and harsh punishment was doled out when one did.
There are also indirect parallels with the Macondo oil disaster. As a punitive measure BP were forced to pay for a furlough of other oil companies workers while their own drilling was stopped for a safety review. Relevant as it proves the mechanics to force a company to offer out of work payments already exists.
Add the two together and employees forced to work with potential coronavirus symptoms will likely result in workplace closure and forced escrow to pay for all workers, maybe even contracted ones. I expect authorities will be very draconian about this because the message will need to be sent. After some company managers are raked through the coals the others will be more cautious.
Yes bosses can be arses, a friend sent me this based on his own recent experiences with a harsh boss, and there are more employee rights in the UK than the US
however there are some things you don't mess with, and where harsh measures can be taken if one does.
It it comes to this we will likely already have road closures, quarantines, possibly even national guard deployments. If this is not the case it will be at the point of public discussion on rollout provision. It is not a business as usual situation.
I have some sympathy with management too, this is an excellent opportunity bunk off with a sickie.
Hiowever the lack of sick pay provision in the US will prove to be a problem, I wouldnt fear errant bosses as much as I would be concerned about sick employees, or bosses, who feel that cannot afford to miss a work day.
It is how it has already happened. I even gave a link. During the typhoid epidemics the infected were expected not to turn up for work, and harsh punishment was doled out when one did.
You highly underestimate the exploitative nature of the US employment system, especially as it relates to low income populations.
Add the two together and employees forced to work with potential coronavirus symptoms will likely result in workplace closure and forced escrow to pay for all workers, maybe even contracted ones. I expect authorities will be very draconian about this because the message will need to be sent. After some company managers are raked through the coals the others will be more cautious.
You truly have no concept of how toothless public health authorities in the united states are when it comes to dictating to private business.
It it comes to this we will likely already have road closures, quarantines, possibly even national guard deployments. If this is not the case it will be at the point of public discussion on rollout provision. It is not a business as usual situation.
You're saying that you don't have some old coroner who throws a fit and campaigns for basic rights of the small people every time a new body comes across his table that didn't die of old age?
And how does one misunderstand your boss telling you "Get your backside in here, I don't care HOW sick you are!"?
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
Assuming, of course, the employee knows this is an option. Most do not. It's not like ANY business goes out of their way to educate their employees on their rights.
Hiowever the lack of sick pay provision in the US will prove to be a problem, I wouldnt fear errant bosses as much as I would be concerned about sick employees, or bosses, who feel that cannot afford to miss a work day.
For most restaurant workers, it's not 'feeling' they cannot afford to miss work (and it's not for a day, it takes 7 to 10 days to recover from a cold or flu and no longer be infectious). It's that they ACTUALLY cannot afford to miss the work. You misunderstand how poorly these people are paid in America, and how expensive it can be just to pay for rent, food, and transportation.
Overread wrote: You're saying that you don't have some old coroner who throws a fit and campaigns for basic rights of the small people every time a new body comes across his table that didn't die of old age?
Or did Quincy retire?
Theyre mostly just thrilled that its not a gunshot or an overdose.
From what I recall the restaurant workers (esp the serving staff) aren't even paid a full wage, but are instead supposed to make it up with tips. Which is why tipping is such a huge thing in America because its not a "tip" its actually paying their wage. Meanwhile in the UK serving staff get an actual wage so a tip is a tip on top.
Then again the USA has some odd anti-consumer/worker things like that. A bit like how many stores price things but don't put the price with tax on the label. So your shopping appears cheaper because they aren't including tax. UK side the only time you get that is if you're in a retail establishment that's mostly only selling to companies that can recover/refund the VAT or are exempt from it (ergo they won't be paying it).
Overread wrote: From what I recall the restaurant workers (esp the serving staff) aren't even paid a full wage, but are instead supposed to make it up with tips. Which is why tipping is such a huge thing in America because its not a "tip" its actually paying their wage. Meanwhile in the UK serving staff get an actual wage so a tip is a tip on top.
Tipping seems a bit more nonsensical from outside US culture than it actually is. The mentality behind tipping is giving the consumer control--if someone goes into a restaurant and feels the service was inadequate they have the power to pay less for that service, or if the service was particularly good they are empowered to give extra.
Obviously there are problems with such reasoning, but that's for another thread. In the meantime service workers generally have to make at least minimum mage and if tips are insufficient the difference is made up by the employer. But that is separate from the issue that many, many Americans literally cannot afford to miss two weeks of work.
Overread wrote: From what I recall the restaurant workers (esp the serving staff) aren't even paid a full wage, but are instead supposed to make it up with tips. Which is why tipping is such a huge thing in America because its not a "tip" its actually paying their wage. Meanwhile in the UK serving staff get an actual wage so a tip is a tip on top.
Then again the USA has some odd anti-consumer/worker things like that. A bit like how many stores price things but don't put the price with tax on the label. So your shopping appears cheaper because they aren't including tax. UK side the only time you get that is if you're in a retail establishment that's mostly only selling to companies that can recover/refund the VAT or are exempt from it (ergo they won't be paying it).
How it generally works is that Servers get paid either minimum wage OR the sum of their tips. Whichever is greater.
I fully agree that tips should be in addition to whatever their hourly rate is, not a method to supplement the restaurant's labor expense.
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
Ah yes. The deep and abiding mystery of which employee called in sick, didn't want come to work and subsequently filed a complaint when told they had to anyway. Who could it possibly be?
Grey Templar wrote: The Spanish Flu was the last major worldwide epidemic. It killed millions, even in developed countries. The thing is its often forgotten because it happened at the same time as WW1, so its danger gets overlooked.
Yes, we learned a lot and have plans for the next epidemic. The thing is that that ability for modern society to contain a worldwide epidemic has never been put to the test. We simply haven't had one yet. And that's the reason a lot of people are rightfully concerned, we've had a century to prepare for a worldwide epidemic but haven't actually tested it. We don't know if we're ready, but time is up. Worldwide epidemics are cyclical and happen roughly every 100 years or so, so we are overdue and its a little concerning.
With some extra concern, considering how badly we're currently failing at measles, a disease problem we used to have solved.
You truly have no concept of how toothless public health authorities in the united states are when it comes to dictating to private business.
You say this, even after I gave a DIRECT EXAMPLE of authorities dictating to very powerful private business. It is not the public health authorities doing the stick wielding, they just point out who the stick wielders go after.
If you need any further convincing take a look at the Reston virus outbreak in 1989. Ebola Reston is a virus only effecting monkeys, but it is a form of Ebola and it could cross species, as is usual it is named after the place where the first reported case was confirmed and is the second of the Ebola family of viruses not to have an African origin.
The Reston virus outbreak was handled my AMRIID and that is considered pattern for a serious virus outbreak in the US. The CDC is civilian, but AMRIID is not, the researchers have military rank. The idea that epidemic control would be handed straight to the military is not unlikely, so if you think those are the toothless public health authorities you speak of, good luck with that.
It it comes to this we will likely already have road closures, quarantines, possibly even national guard deployments. If this is not the case it will be at the point of public discussion on rollout provision. It is not a business as usual situation.
It goers like this. An employee phones the CDC and asks for anonymity, then says "A co-worker wants to call in sick with flu like symptoms and the boss is forcing them to come in to work. I am worried."
Imagine the rapidly descending shitstorm of officialdom that will then happen, and yes the employee will get anonymity.
Ah yes. The deep and abiding mystery of which employee called in sick, didn't want come to work and subsequently filed a complaint when told they had to anyway. Who could it possibly be?
Reading comprehension is not hard. I directly showed a scenario where a third party might call in, with reasons why. Bosses may well think as you do and assume it is the sick person who called in. However there are reasonable and even obvious contingencies how it might be a someone else. It still boils down to self interest.
Dear fething god there's literally nothing correct in what you just posted. Stop talking about countries you clearly have no knowledge of whatsoever.
SARS, MERS and Ebola (yes, fething Ebola) events in the 2000s and 2010s in the US were handled by the CDC, with logistical assistance where necessary from the US Military (mostly in the form of getting personnel to places without having to rely on commercial aircraft). I know this because I was there, and treated patients involved in the latter two scenarios. What you're describing are contingency plannings, roughly on the same likelihood of contingency plannings for what to do in the case of coordinated nuclear attacks on this country.
In other words, it aint ever happening. So stop scaremongering.
SARS, MERS and Ebola (yes, fething Ebola) events in the 2000s and 2010s in the US were handled by the CDC, with logistical assistance where necessary from the US Military
Reston wasn't. None of the above events were in much danger of breakthrough. Reston was scary, nobody knew how bad it was and containment was swift and went strtaight to military. May I recommend you read Virushunter by CJ Peters. Colonel Peters was in command of the Reston containment and cleanup. Interesting chap. He made it look like it wasnt a military op, Racal suits made that easier.
(mostly in the form of getting personnel to places without having to rely on commercial aircraft). I know this because I was there, and treated patients involved in the latter two scenarios. What you're describing are contingency plannings, roughly on the same likelihood of contingency plannings for what to do in the case of coordinated nuclear attacks on this country.
Nice that you use the word contingency, then at least I know you are partly on the same page. THAT IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, and no things do not have to go nuclear or on par with nuclear for the contingencies to be enabled.
Congratulations, you've managed to read the news, and unsurprisingly gave it your own apocalyptic alarmist spin.
A WHO emergency does one thing: allow for particular resources to be used across borders, and clears some administrative hurdles for said allocation.
Put the rattle down please. Yes I can read the news, yes I can post a relevant announcement here, and no I am not scaremongering.
Assuming you are able to read the big words I suggest you read what I actually posted on this thread rather than accuse me of scaremongering. I have done the opposite, saying that China is doing a good job, contingencies are in place and if needs be they can be strengthened. Non-alarmist people should take some comfort that if civilian measures at halting disease fail there is a second option, it doesn't mean democracy is dead or essential rights will be removed, it doesn't mean the apocalypse has come either.
I put up the video before I watched it, because it was relevant either way. It is interesting that what the spokesperson for WHO stated at the start of the video mirrors what I wrote on page 2 of this thread, the parts that people started mocking me for then, just as you mock me now. Maybe I am not the idiot you take me for.
Yes I can read the news, yes I can post a relevant announcement here, and no I am not scaremongering.
bs. You're entire presence in this thread has been "ZOMG THE NATIONAL GUARD AND FORCED QUARANTINES ARE COMING!!!! THE CDC IS GOING TO SHUT DOWN YOUR STORES!!!".
You've repeatedly demonstrated your exceptional ignorance of the various groups involved in a response inside the United States, the social dynamics of this population, and the situation at hand. You're deliberately talking up a public health situation in stratospherically alarmist terms. This is how disinformation fueled panics start, and you're doing an amazing job of stoking those fires.
Assuming, of course, the employee knows this is an option. Most do not. It's not like ANY business goes out of their way to educate their employees on their rights.
CDC are not idiots, they will get the message out. Politicians will reinforce this, if you are sick do not come into to work.
Let us assume you are right though and too many frightened low paid wageslaves turn up to work sick due to financial necessity or employer pressure. I believe that will occur BTW so I am not saying you are wrong there. it only takes one to make the phone call and one boss to face extreme censure for that message to spread.
For most restaurant workers, it's not 'feeling' they cannot afford to miss work (and it's not for a day, it takes 7 to 10 days to recover from a cold or flu and no longer be infectious). It's that they ACTUALLY cannot afford to miss the work. You misunderstand how poorly these people are paid in America, and how expensive it can be just to pay for rent, food, and transportation.
I don't misunderstand at all. This is a clash of contrary realities. The lack of workers rights in the US vs an epidemic. It is at that point things change. There would likely be a Rosa Parks of restaurant workers, and she (or he) will be difficult to stop.
Yes I can read the news, yes I can post a relevant announcement here, and no I am not scaremongering.
bs. You're entire presence in this thread has been "ZOMG THE NATIONAL GUARD AND FORCED QUARANTINES ARE COMING!!!! THE CDC IS GOING TO SHUT DOWN YOUR STORES!!!".
Challenge accepted. Prove that. Fething quote me saying it, and dont edit the quotes down to twist their meaning.
Or stop and grow up.
You've repeatedly demonstrated your exceptional ignorance of the various groups involved in a response inside the United States, and the situation at hand. You're deliberately talking up a public health situation in stratospherically alarmist terms. This is how disinformation fueled panics start, and you're doing an amazing job of stoking those fires.
Second challenge accepted. Remember to add context.
Yes I can read the news, yes I can post a relevant announcement here, and no I am not scaremongering.
bs. You're entire presence in this thread has been "ZOMG THE NATIONAL GUARD AND FORCED QUARANTINES ARE COMING!!!! THE CDC IS GOING TO SHUT DOWN YOUR STORES!!!".
You've repeatedly demonstrated your exceptional ignorance of the various groups involved in a response inside the United States, the social dynamics of this population, and the situation at hand. You're deliberately talking up a public health situation in stratospherically alarmist terms. This is how disinformation fueled panics start, and you're doing an amazing job of stoking those fires.
Yes I can read the news, yes I can post a relevant announcement here, and no I am not scaremongering.
bs. You're entire presence in this thread has been "ZOMG THE NATIONAL GUARD AND FORCED QUARANTINES ARE COMING!!!! THE CDC IS GOING TO SHUT DOWN YOUR STORES!!!".
You've repeatedly demonstrated your exceptional ignorance of the various groups involved in a response inside the United States, the social dynamics of this population, and the situation at hand. You're deliberately talking up a public health situation in stratospherically alarmist terms. This is how disinformation fueled panics start, and you're doing an amazing job of stoking those fires.
Bashing your head against a brick wall mate.
Its evidently not going to cause him harm or me worry.
I was on personal leave to spend Chinese New Years in my hometown, Fuzhou, aka F U city, or happy city by direct translation.
The situation here isn’t as bad as reported elsewhere, civil workers still cleans the streets and keeps the grocery store open; only the self small businesses are all shut down, needless to say the restaurant and public gathering areas, though some small shops are open.
We did have a scare though(about 7-10 days ago) a resident on 12th floor came back from Wuhan at one of my uncle’s building; we visited his place a few days earlier, so we potentially shared the same elevator. How did we know? My uncle’s wife came back one day and saw hazmat suit guys going up and stopped at the 12th floor, she was awestruck, they said she can keep going up, apparently they have already cleaned the path.
The worst part about this is that it ends my potential travel elsewhere, finishing up personal paperwork in Xiamen; delay my travel home, and spending time browsing and buying stuff on evilbay! $500+ and counting...
Bran Dawri wrote: To help you: stop staring at evilbay. I challenge to watch all of youtube instead.
That’s just it, I don’t have access to some of App and websites I normally visit, like YouTube, Gmail cannot read new mail, no Imgur, no Facebook, no instagram, cannot pay my PayPal MasterCard due to server restrictions, lists goes on..
Some things I did get is setup a Chinese bank account, I now have WeChat pay, a lot easier than using cash; toys like LEGO are extremely cheap, I bought a giant armor car kit(for my cousin’s kids)with crew for only 220 rmb, about $32; in the US it would of been $200+
Deals I’ve bit on so far:
DE Mandrakes(metal new sculpt) NIB- $24+6 shipping+tax
Deathwatch Corvus Blackstar NIB- $50+tax
Bretonnia Gamesday 1998 LE knight with greatsword- $37+ 8.5 shipping +tax
Bretonnia Battle Pilgrims x10 NIB- $28+ 5 shipping +tax
IK Perceptor upgrade sprue NIB- $13+ 3 shipping +tax
OOP Bretonnia decals(12 sheets) NIB- $28+ 8 shipping +tax
3 Ork buggies(Snazzwagon, Scrapjet, Squigbuggy) NIB- $110 after eBay code
Skyshield Landing Pad NIB- $47+ 5 shipping +tax
Dkok heavy mortar and thudd gun with crew- $48+ 7 shipping +tax
So long as you can actually afford all that, what is the problem. Maybe +tax is the problem, Getting good Bretonnia stuff is a step towards fixing up a difficult army to collect.
There are Brets I need to buy, because I have not been able to find all of my army and key units are missing, it is a cost I have put off many times.
On a related note: The flu season in the U.S. seems to have been particularly bad. Some 140,000 cases requiring hospitalization and 4000 confirmed dead.
On the unrelated note: Bretonnia is actually fairly easy to collect so long as you're not dead set on using GW minis. LOTS of historical mini companies make historical knights and men-at-arms you can use instead.
Huh. I actually have a bunch of old Brets (~4th/5th edition) in the attic I've been meaning to sell but haven't gotten around to sorting, much less selling yet.
Good to know they're hard to get. If anyone's interested, PM me or something. It might give me the kick in the pants I need to actually do something about that.
Also, maybe TOR browser can get around some of those blocks? Otherwise I suggest just going on a gaming spree of those 400 Steam games everyone has that they've never played, much less finished. Or a bingewatch of epic proportions, say all 17 or so seasons of Stargate.
...
Enough derailing the thread. How far has Heineken, err, corona spread today?
As I will be travelling to Angola soon, which has a sizeable population of both Indians and Chinese it is a point of interest to me.
(Even so, I'm more worried about malaria, but I admit, it is an extra concern.)
Vulcan wrote: On a related note: The flu season in the U.S. seems to have been particularly bad. Some 140,000 cases requiring hospitalization and 4000 confirmed dead.
Basic flu will 100% kill orders of magnitude more poeple this year than this latest light beer virus that's only in the news to distract from global warming, as has been the case with every fad virus so far.
Vulcan wrote: On a related note: The flu season in the U.S. seems to have been particularly bad. Some 140,000 cases requiring hospitalization and 4000 confirmed dead.
Basic flu will 100% kill orders of magnitude more poeple this year than this latest light beer virus that's only in the news to distract from global warming, as has been the case with every fad virus so far.
NOTHING will distract the media from... what are they calling it now? Oh yeah, the climate crisis.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Nah, media just has a strong tendency to overreact with events like these. No scheme required, only stupidity.
Well, to repost something I said in an Ebola thread:
Ouze wrote: This isn't really directed at the OP, but it's got me thinking - why do we, as a society, worry about the wrong thing all the time, over and over again?
We worry about sharks, but let our kids play near pools unsupervised. We worry about terrorism even as we bite into 1500 calorie cheeseburgers. We buy guns to guard our houses which don't have smoke alarms or fire extinguishers. We panic about airport security, but drive to work tired, or home from the bar tipsy.
We seem as a people wholly oblivious to the most dangerous things around us.
Blaming "the media for this is wrongheaded, I think. The media are a disparate group of business entities designed to sell advertising and they don't exist in a vacuum; they are delivering what delivers clicks or viewers, and that overwhelmingly is Celebrity Trash, White Women in Trouble, Things That Might Kill You (but statistically absolutely won't), and so on.
Blaming "the media" is essentially handwaving away and abdicating the general public's appetite for the dumb stuff they want, just like we blame narcotics traffickers in different countries and not the domestic citizens hoovering up however many tons of blow per year.
Oh, I see how it looks like I am BLAMING the media. I'm not, the other half of this is that I feel the media (and politics) is only crappy because the population consuming it's output is. They are just producing what the people consume.
Primarily I was dismissing Tony's climate change conspiracy nonsense.
People were always the same tho, it's the media that have abandoned their responsibilities as "the 4th branch of government" and started serving easily consumable dreck and putting ad revenue above truth and journalistic integrity.
Vulcan wrote: On a related note: The flu season in the U.S. seems to have been particularly bad. Some 140,000 cases requiring hospitalization and 4000 confirmed dead.
Basic flu will 100% kill orders of magnitude more poeple this year than this latest light beer virus that's only in the news to distract from global warming, as has been the case with every fad virus so far.
The western world has a high rate of vaccination for the seasonal flu. Flu deaths would be a lot higher without that. The coronavirus is at least as deadly as your average flu, and we've got no vaccine. This is the problem.
Fortunately we learned some lessons from SARS in 2003 and most countries are locking things down a lot quicker. Modern medicine can handle this, provided it doesn't get overwhelmed with too many cases too quickly. Wuhan doesn't have the capacity to deal with the number of cases right now, either in terms of doctors, hospital beds, or medicine.
lord_blackfang wrote: People were always the same tho, it's the media that have abandoned their responsibilities as "the 4th branch of government" and started serving easily consumable dreck and putting ad revenue above truth and journalistic integrity.
I disagree that the media has such a responsibility. We tell the media via ratings that we (on average) want it to produce sensationalist crap, it's incredibly irresponsible to then turn and say 'well the media has a responsibility to not do what we ask of it!'
NinthMusketeer wrote: Oh, I see how it looks like I am BLAMING the media. I'm not, the other half of this is that I feel the media (and politics) is only crappy because the population consuming it's output is. They are just producing what the people consume.
Primarily I was dismissing Tony's climate change conspiracy nonsense.
I'd be elated if you can point to a single element of conspiracy nonsense in my post. If not, we can consider this a slanderous personal attack.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Oh, I see how it looks like I am BLAMING the media. I'm not, the other half of this is that I feel the media (and politics) is only crappy because the population consuming it's output is. They are just producing what the people consume.
Primarily I was dismissing Tony's climate change conspiracy nonsense.
I'd be elated if you can point to a single element of conspiracy nonsense in my post. If not, we can consider this a slanderous personal attack.
Oh, you accept the validity of the climate change crisis then? My apologies, I misinterpreted.
Once again, you responded condescendingly to comments that didn't exist. Do I think there is a considerable shift in climate happening? Of course. Do I think it's manmade? Not entirely. Do I think CO2 is going to be the magic fix? No, not at all. CO2 is not the most plentiful greenhouse gas, NOR is it the most affective of the gasses, yet it has been latched on to as the magic bullet that will fix everything. Without addressing the gases that are causing the majority of the warming all we will be doing by eliminating carbon emissions is castrating industry in all countries except those that have no intention of abiding by any accords such as Russia and China, and watch as they take an industrial lead to the rest of the civilized world.
lord_blackfang wrote: Basic flu will 100% kill orders of magnitude more poeple this year than this latest light beer virus that's only in the news to distract from global warming, as has been the case with every fad virus so far.
I'm not sure it's a good idea to put much faith in the official numbers released by the CCP. This is a visual representation of the numbers that have presented.
If you look at the Hubei province (where Wuhan is located,) there's about a 2% mortality rate. Look at any of the surrounding provinces. I can't find one with more than a 0.02% mortality rate.
Viruses don't care where you live, trying to explain differences based on environmental factors seems odd. Just under half the population of Wuhan escaped the city prior to the quarantine. It's reasonable to expect some of the people who left would be carriers.
A possible cause: there are substantial differences in how morbidity is reported in the West and in China. If you die from the flu in the West, doctors report it as the flu. If you die from the flu in China and you suffer from a pre-existing condition, the cause of death is reported as the pre-existing condition. Something like 60% of Chinese nationals have a pre-existing condition, asthma is one of the biggest.
If you follow the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the CCP injected about $340B into the markets last week to avoid a crash. They are starting to dip back down again, my guess it we are going to see $1T in liquidity injected before the month is over. The Shenzhen Composite Index is an interesting measure of sentiment, it's primarily a measure of Series A and B shares, which can only be owned by Chinese nationals and are often handed out to high-level party members.
Without going too far into the numbers, healthcare stocks in these exchanges rallied last week to keep first-day losses to around 8%. Were it not for that sector, losses would have been around 18%. In addition, there are limits in how much someone can sell off on protected class stocks over a 10 day period. While it's not possible to measure how much people would have sold without these limits, one gets the sense the markets would have totally crashed in their absence.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist but I do find reasons to question the numbers being described by authorities. Large stock market swings don't happen in the absence of a triggering event, large investments of capital in stock markets don't occur in the absence of predictable behavior. Differences in how mortality are reported between the East and the West are well known, I've been very surprised to hear the rhetoric about how the flu kills more people annually than NCP (the official name for the virus is now Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia.) Anyone who reads the Lancent would understand that's a very dubious claim.
Regardless, the true impact of NCP is probably not best measured in mortality rates, but in economic impact. China reported 6% growth last year, a figure many people find reason to question. Cities the size of Chicago are being shut down right now, Beijing is under partial lock down as a preventative measure. This event has already cost China Billions, if the quarantines drag onto March that number will likely balloon into the Trillions (plural.) China's GDP is around $12T USD and this is the second major health event in the last 6 months (swine flu being the first.)
It will be interesting understanding the economic impact and how that relates to morality rates. Currently, for each reported case of NCP, the Chinese economy has lost close to $1.5 Bil. If the number are correct, that sounds very expensive for something that's less lethal than the flu.
lord_blackfang wrote: Basic flu will 100% kill orders of magnitude more poeple this year than this latest light beer virus that's only in the news to distract from global warming, as has been the case with every fad virus so far.
I'm not sure it's a good idea to put much faith in the official numbers released by the CCP. This is a visual representation of the numbers that have presented.
If you look at the Hubei province (where Wuhan is located,) there's about a 2% mortality rate. Look at any of the surrounding provinces. I can't find one with more than a 0.02% mortality rate.
Viruses don't care where you live, trying to explain differences based on environmental factors seems odd. Just under half the population of Wuhan escaped the city prior to the quarantine. It's reasonable to expect some of the people who left would be carriers.
A possible cause: there are substantial differences in how morbidity is reported in the West and in China. If you die from the flu in the West, doctors report it as the flu. If you die from the flu in China and you suffer from a pre-existing condition, the cause of death is reported as the pre-existing condition. Something like 60% of Chinese nationals have a pre-existing condition, asthma is one of the biggest.
If you follow the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the CCP injected about $340B into the markets last week to avoid a crash. They are starting to dip back down again, my guess it we are going to see $1T in liquidity injected before the month is over. The Shenzhen Composite Index is an interesting measure of sentiment, it's primarily a measure of Series A and B shares, which can only be owned by Chinese nationals and are often handed out to high-level party members.
Without going too far into the numbers, healthcare stocks in these exchanges rallied last week to keep first-day losses to around 8%. Were it not for that sector, losses would have been around 18%. In addition, there are limits in how much someone can sell off on protected class stocks over a 10 day period. While it's not possible to measure how much people would have sold without these limits, one gets the sense the markets would have totally crashed in their absence.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist but I do find reasons to question the numbers being described by authorities. Large stock market swings don't happen in the absence of a triggering event, large investments of capital in stock markets don't occur in the absence of predictable behavior. Differences in how mortality are reported between the East and the West are well known, I've been very surprised to hear the rhetoric about how the flu kills more people annually than NCP (the official name for the virus is now Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia.) Anyone who reads the Lancent would understand that's a very dubious claim.
Regardless, the true impact of NCP is probably not best measured in mortality rates, but in economic impact. China reported 6% growth last year, a figure many people find reason to question. Cities the size of Chicago are being shut down right now, Beijing is under partial lock down as a preventative measure. This event has already cost China Billions, if the quarantines drag onto March that number will likely balloon into the Trillions (plural.) China's GDP is around $12T USD and this is the second major health event in the last 6 months (swine flu being the first.)
It will be interesting understanding the economic impact and how that relates to morality rates. Currently, for each reported case of NCP, the Chinese economy has lost close to $1.5 Bil. If the number are correct, that sounds very expensive for something that's less lethal than the flu.
I can see eeasons why mortality would vary by region- differing levels of air pollution and deprivation could make a huge impact. Virus do care if it affects the underlying health of the population- I will be far less susceptible than someone my age who has asthma, smokes, has poorer nutrition, drinks heavily etc. The fact that most cases are also quarantined means that the Wuhan healthcare services will be seeing the majority of cases, and will be overloaded with a corresponding increase in mortality. Whether that could explain the disparity you mention, I have no idea. It is well documented that mortality rises when services are overloaded.
The differences in reporting between China and the West is interesting. At least in the UK, you get a degree of both with the somewhat archaic* "1a 1b 1c 2" system of reporting causes of death. The above example would be 1a Novel coronavirus pneumonia 2 Asthma, and both would be recorded on the mortality statistics.
*Archaic because the format hasn't been updated to match the large volume of very co-morbid patients in the modern age. It is getting increasingly difficult to pin the cause of death on one condition for patients in chronic multi-organ failure.
Wuhan will also have had the highest level of infected who didn't get any care, or if they did got care that was inappropriate as nobody knew what they had from the beginning of the outbreak
by the time significant numbers were infected and showing symptoms elsewhere medics & hospitals were on alert and would have tried to provide the right care
i'm sure that's responsible for at least some of the difference, how much I guess we'll find out in time
Oh, and the UK has now implemented laws for mandatory quarantine for sufferers & those that are thought to be exposed after one of the folk evacuated from China tried to leave before their 14 days was up
Easy E wrote: Read an interesting article that claimed some of the Coronavirus hype is actually thinly veiled racism against Asians and Chinese in particular.
I will see if I can dig it up and link it here.
On January 21, over 7,000 articles were published worldwide claiming talking about the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia is racist.
That's not journalism, that's a public relations campaign. And it's a bad idea not to discuss a potential pandemic.
There are a lot of people using this as an opportunity to be racist though, but that is a whole different topic.
The only area I can see skirting close to racism when discussing the epidemic directly is when looking at the factors that lead to China being the source of so many epidemics.
The problem is that there are a lot of false things being spread around like claiming the virus came from Chinese eating bats alive that is grounded in racism more than truth. It excuses people to revel in showing contempt for the chinese rather than serving any valid discussion about their sanitation and food practices.
I’m currently stuck in China somewhere between Tianjin and Beijing. Got stuck between holidays, returned from Mariana islands and was going to travel across China when this blew up. Holiday was cancelled and then things locked down.
I think my experience is pretty normal for here. There has been the first reported case in my province though I’m likely at little personal risk. But long distance travel is now heavily restricted or impossible, some trains have started to operate but, taxis and buses into the cities are not running and roads are closed. There’s nowhere to go anyway, all tourist places are closed and most shops shut.
Shops that closed for new year have extended their closure, so who knows when they’ll open, postal services are still closed. Shops running out of bread and a lot of dairy, alcohol hand wash and face-masks are gone. Drinking water ran out today and if that doesn’t get a delivery in the next couple weeks things will be interesting. If you order a delivery from one of the few services available, you have to meet them at the gate of the housing estate to collect, but most aren’t operating anyway. Everyone gets a temperature check being entering the estate, they record you name, address, phone number etc. In some areas, they are turning people away from areas where they don’t live, so just trying to visit someone is not allowed. My girlfriend went back to Beijing and has a card dated upon arrival, she cannot leave the estate for a fortnight, until when she will get another card that allows her out. The estate has a couple tiny shops for food and that’s it. Jeeze.
My school’s opening has been suspended until further notice. People outside the area, such as staff abroad, are not allowed to return by authorities. We have to run ‘online lessons’ but despite collecting a computer from work the internet is so slow as to be unusable. I will have to send materials to pupils via wechat. Which would be my preference anyway, it’s much easier. This will put real pressure on my AS-level classes who will lose at least ~12 hours class time assuming we open in March. And there’s no indication if that will happen.
I’m not exactly happy with the UK Foreign Office giving no help or advice whatsoever, and I see little indication from them as to whether they have confidence in either the Chinese data being published or their methods to control. Telling us to ‘leave if we can’ is not good enough. For a start, most transport options are restricted. I could get on public transport going by rail and metro, but frankly that has hazards of its own. Further, if I leave the area but had to turn back for some reason, I might find that quite difficult. What do I do if they refuse me entry? For now I feel more secure just holed up and waiting for it to blow over.
Easy E wrote: Read an interesting article that claimed some of the Coronavirus hype is actually thinly veiled racism against Asians and Chinese in particular.
I will see if I can dig it up and link it here.
On January 21, over 7,000 articles were published worldwide claiming talking about the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia is racist.
That's not journalism, that's a public relations campaign. And it's a bad idea not to discuss a potential pandemic.
The CCP loves to use crybully tactics. Try being non-Han Chinese inside China if you want to see racism.
Easy E wrote: Read an interesting article that claimed some of the Coronavirus hype is actually thinly veiled racism against Asians and Chinese in particular.
I will see if I can dig it up and link it here.
On January 21, over 7,000 articles were published worldwide claiming talking about the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia is racist.
That's not journalism, that's a public relations campaign. And it's a bad idea not to discuss a potential pandemic.
The CCP loves to use crybully tactics. Try being non-Han Chinese inside China if you want to see racism.
I have and it sucked just worse than the non-anesthetized dental surgery I had to have while I was there. 95% Han ethnostate that thinks everyone else is a moron, the level of corruption was staggering.
So all that talk about racism was just about bat soup, and not an attempt to distract from what was really going on?
I have and it sucked just worse than the non-anesthetized dental surgery I had to have while I was there. 95% Han ethnostate that thinks everyone else is a moron, the level of corruption was staggering.
So all that talk about racism was just about bat soup, and not an attempt to distract from what was really going on?
It can be both. People can be racist towards Chinese and the CCP can cry about racism as a distraction from their failure to contain the coronavirus. But their complaints of racism are completely shameless.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Here I thought having a huge number of humans with compromised respiratory health concentrated in a small area was cause enough for an epidemic.
That is true, but China is particularly good at breeding new infections, because it has the above alongside still having a large, dense population living in close proximity to chickens and pigs. It is an environment that fosters zoonosis. Most of the more dangerous human pathogens are zoonotic, like TB and smallpox. 'Flu is another good example, and China has often been the epicentre for new 'flu strains causing epidemics.
NinthMusketeer wrote: Here I thought having a huge number of humans with compromised respiratory health concentrated in a small area was cause enough for an epidemic.
That is true, but China is particularly good at breeding new infections, because it has the above alongside still having a large, dense population living in close proximity to chickens and pigs. It is an environment that fosters zoonosis. Most of the more dangerous human pathogens are zoonotic, like TB and smallpox. 'Flu is another good example, and China has often been the epicentre for new 'flu strains causing epidemics.
The chicken and pigs thing is especially relevant because the chickens and pigs are in close proximity to each other. Virus mutates in chickens and jumps to pigs (harmless to humans at this point), then mutates in the pigs to jump to humans. Bird flu -> Swine flu -> Human flu. Separate the chicken and pig raising and it basically shuts it down, barring the very rare possibility of Bird flu -> Human flu mutation.
The zoonosis danger is an aspect of Chinese agriculture, rather than their human genetics.
In fact, in the UK there is increased racism against all oriental people regardless of their culture identity or citizenship. For example, racism against British born Chinese, against Japanese people.
All that said, racism against "foreigners" of any type has been increasing for several years, but we had better not get into that line of discussion, because it would be political.
Race hate claims in the UK should always be looked at with caution, as what is determined to be racial hatred is obfuscated by many factors including who is being targeted, who is making the comments and what form of offence taken and with skewed entry levels of magnitude.
This imbalance is now inherent, doctrinal and reinforced by a generation of brainwashing.
I went into central London a fortnight ago for my annual health assessment. In a London supermarket I saw Chinese people with face masks, only they were wearing them and lots of people around them took notice. This was before any known cases in the UK. Some ignorant people might be triggered by this in some way; fear does this. I would not presume as to which demographic might be triggered, but society does.
Or just a false sense of security inspired by fear. I saw locals with those same masks on an internal flight in Angola because they were afraid of Corona.
Chinatown here has always had a fair few mask wearers even before the virus, probably folk who came from China were the pollution means even a rubbish mask does help and once you've got the habit it's just going to be like putting on a coat before you go out
Anyone who lives in central London, or anywhere else with a large number of Far Eastern tourists or first generation immigrants, will be totally used to seeing people wearing face masks.
On a slight tangent, I often see groups of Far Eastern tourists stood in groups next to tour busses in Oxford, face masks pulled down around their chins so they can smoke...
Face masks are a regular occurance. Mainly tourists. In Birmingham I have been told that this has recently been because of the reported issues with air quality.
Also, Friends in Brighton now have their kids home from school in quarantine. A week before half term.
Masks are worn to prevent breathing the pollution. You see it everywhere, if it looks foggy in the morning, that’s the pollution. It’s awful.
Masks will help prevent you catching flu or cold but only in conjunction with regular hand washing. The hand washing itself does most of the work.
One filthy habit chinese people should pack in is public spitting. It’s revolting and known to spread disease. What’s the point in wearing a mask and then repeatedly gobbing on the floor? Flu is spread by infected liquid usually being coughed out, so deliberately spitting in public places should be banned. Don’t want to walk in it or breathe it in from the air. Yet you see it repeatedly every time you go out, pavements are dotted with spit. And that’s no exaggeration.
Howard A Treesong wrote: Masks are worn to prevent breathing the pollution. You see it everywhere, if it looks foggy in the morning, that’s the pollution. It’s awful.
Masks will help prevent you catching flu or cold but only in conjunction with regular hand washing. The hand washing itself does most of the work.
One filthy habit chinese people should pack in is public spitting. It’s revolting and known to spread disease. What’s the point in wearing a mask and then repeatedly gobbing on the floor? Flu is spread by infected liquid usually being coughed out, so deliberately spitting in public places should be banned. Don’t want to walk in it or breathe it in from the air. Yet you see it repeatedly every time you go out, pavements are dotted with spit. And that’s no exaggeration.
I had no idea it was that common in Asia.
I do remember seeing some videos about the hygienic revolution in western society and that was one of the things that was a forefront concern at the time. In conjunction with hand washing and other basic hygienic practices, spitting in particular was called out and banned in many places.
Howard A Treesong wrote: Masks are worn to prevent breathing the pollution. You see it everywhere, if it looks foggy in the morning, that’s the pollution. It’s awful.
Masks will help prevent you catching flu or cold but only in conjunction with regular hand washing. The hand washing itself does most of the work.
One filthy habit chinese people should pack in is public spitting. It’s revolting and known to spread disease. What’s the point in wearing a mask and then repeatedly gobbing on the floor? Flu is spread by infected liquid usually being coughed out, so deliberately spitting in public places should be banned. Don’t want to walk in it or breathe it in from the air. Yet you see it repeatedly every time you go out, pavements are dotted with spit. And that’s no exaggeration.
Yeah that is grim, wherever you see it. although I must admit that I do like to rid myself of mucus when I have a cold, but at least try to get it down a drain or something.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Those dust masks are less than useless too.. They aren't going to stop virusus getting in.
This is dangerously vague and/or ignorant. A "facemask" or "dust mask" is a generic term. A surgical mask does little to nothing to protect against the current coronavirus, but it can help reduce the spread of it by proving a physical barrier for mucus etc. It also helps reduce the spread of other non-viral droplets etc. An N95 mask, also referred to as a medical respirator, will provide protection against the coronavirus as long as it is used properly and proper hygiene is used. (Wash your hands, don't touch your face etc) A lot of "dust masks" in industry are rated to be used as a medical respirator and may even have a higher rating like the n99 masks. There are also P95 masks which are effective against oil based pollutants. The key is to look for something with a N95, N99, or P95 rating.
Spouting off assumptions and a lack of precision in language could literally get someone killed. Take this seriously.
So, as someone who has lived, and is living in East Asia, for over 3 years, let's have a juicy PoserMcBogus look at some of the stuff coming up in this here lil ol' Coronavirus Thread.
What's up with Asian people wearing masks? I don't do that... You're right. Most people in the west don't wear masks, unless doing forensics, surgery, dental work, or something involving hazardous substances. The reason people in Asia wear masks is multifarious. Some have been brought up already - pollution, for example. Some regions get particularly bad air contamination, between factories and transport. If you go about not protecting yourself adequately, you at best get a nasty headache, irritated sinuses, and exciting exotic flavors in your mouth, like metal, that hang around for more than is fun.
Additionally, parts of this end of the Eurasian Supercontinent can be extremely arid over vaaaaast swathes of land. A lot of this will be natural, but even people without allergies will have respiratory issues if the dust clouds produced by this weather aren't adequately safeguarded against.
I also know more than a few people who use masks as a way of not standing out. Be it social shyness, not wanting to be bothered.
However, as has been pointed out, people also do this pretty often on account of sickness, or fear of sickness. Due to work culture out here, some people either aren't comfortable with taking time off for something like a cold, or even the flu, because they don't want to either use up their paid leave, or burden others with their absence, or because workplace culture can in some jobs, be brutally strict. There is a different attitude in the countries I have lived in to the west, but even then there is no uniform Asian way to respond to being sick at work. At my school in Korea, I've seen people come in to work literally green in the face, because they'd rather been seen to be pulling their weight than causing an issue for others. In instances like this, I was really fething glad that Tae-Hyun was wearing a face mask, because it might not be much, but whatever the hell he has looks like it's nearly killing him, and God knows I don't want it. A lot of employers in Korea have a "Well why the feth did you let yourself get sick?" attitude.
In Japan, where I am right now, though ymmv, people come into work ill out of a sense of obligation, and wanting to save face. But if someone is signed off work sick, it's usually regarded very sympathetically. I was signed off over summer with a particularly nasty bout of tonsillitis, and had colleagues I barely knew stop by my home to make sure I had enough food, and to check to see if I was alright. When Teachers that I work with have had sore throats, they'll often use masks as a signal to students that this is the case. Unlike kids where I'm from, even amongst more rambunctious classes, this is usually respected, as the person trying to teach you is doing so despite it causing them pain. Kids will sympathetically belt up and let the teacher get on, while other members of staff try to fill in the gaps wherever they can.
I can't speak to much for China, having only visited once, and only knowing a few Chinese nationals, but the attitude is broadly cohesive with this. Masks are usually a mix of protection and a way of preventing yourself from getting other people sick. They are used mostly in case of trivial stuff like colds, as the flu is regarded quite seriously out here, across the board.
Do wearing masks prevent disease? Man, I'm no doctor, but it's probably kinda better than nothing? Especially where some people are double-masking, and/or wearing swimming goggles, too. I can't speak for everyone, but in my experience at least in Korea, people don't really cover their mouths to cough or sneeze. As anyone with a little kid will tell you, having your mouth coughed in is pretty gross, but when it's a stranger's kid, who you know is sick... whole other level of yucky. I'd rather have the masks in that situation than not.
HYSTERIA!!! PANIC!!! Like, yeah, kind of. In Europe, the disease is being spread by jet-set rich-os flying about the world for the most part. Out here, it could be carried by anyone. Even Kanazawa, where I live, a small, kinda boring city, gets a lot of tourist traffic. They come from all over, and have nearly all passed through MASSIVE international transport hubs. Literally anyone you see could be a carrier, and with the 2-week incubation time, it's impossible to know if you've already got it, and are spreading it about the place. It's kind of like a zombie LARPG. Only you could also die from a disease we still don't super understand, which is fun, in a kind of awful I-hope-no-one-I-love-gets-infected way.
Which brings me back to masks. Nearly every pharmacy (slightly annoyingly, always a favorite among Chinese tourists) has sold out of masks. A lot have started putting up signs in Chinese and English saying things along the lines of "masks sold out!". Those that haven't, such as my local, are rationing them to one pack per person (one pack has about 3, so 3 days worth for one person). Oddly, a really good place to grab them reliably are big-city Don Quiotes, though some of these places are rationing them too.
Which brings me to my next point...
RACISM Damn. The R-bomb. This is my own opinion, but I think the outbreak has stoked racial tensions, and allowed other pre-existing prejudices to bubble into the open * glances at all the brazenly anti-Chinese sentiment in this thread with suspicion *. I went travelling to Sapporo recently, and there is usually a large number of Chinese and other East Asian tourists there. Wherever there were foreign tourists, locals would be putting on their masks. Someone starts speaking a language that isn't Japanese or English on public transport? On go the masks. In any kind of space that is shared with East Asian tourists? Masks. See someone in the street who looks a bit 'not-from-round-here'? Mask. How do I know? I was doing it, too. It's very easy to participate in a herd mentality and demonize and fear outsiders when you feel like there's a chance that you might be physically harmed by them. But all of these tourists have been cleared for entry, and subjected to newly-introduced, pretty stringent health checks. The populace with the disease in Japan is small, contained (mostly on that one cruise ship), and seemingly unspreading (for now, for obvious reasons) Doesn't stop people being shifty when they hear Chinese being spoken in public by an-almost-certainly-clean stranger.
I'm especially in this thread gonna call BS on a particular claim that Chinese people are too physically close with animals.
This is literally the oldest dogwhistle in the book. Gerald of Wales pulled it against the Irish in the middle ages.
Chinese cities are DENSE. Impossibly dense. Some parts of those cities, due mostly to the sheer mass of people, can become less than sanitary. Much of China is, or gets, tropical weather on the regular. Transport is fast, easy, and often, nowadays, quite affordable. China is geographically massive, and historically really, really really difficult to administrate effectively These are, unfortunately, ripe conditions for epidemics.
To get a notion of Chinese population numbers, look at ancient Chinese history. Wars in China could rack up body counts the West wouldn't reach until nearly the 20th Century. The middle kingdom is huge, and when things go wrong, they can go extremely wrong, extremely quickly, for literally millions.
That said, the entire time I visited China, along with the accounts of many of my friends, few of them, bar like, the ones who grew up in the literally backend of rural china have been in close proximity with livestock. Yes, there are live animals in some Chinese markets. There are also live animals in almost any market in East Asia, Korea and Japan included. This is a thing throughout a fair portion of the world. Yes, some animals are kept alive as long as possible, to stop meat spoiling in tropical conditions. Yes, there are certainly unscrupulous slaughterhouse owners who operate their businesses in less than hygienic conditions. This is unfortunate, and dangerous. But this in a reasonably rare proportion of the Chinese population, and to make out that most Chinese people don't mind living in close quarters with the pigpen is, at best, the kind of ignorance that racism thrives in.
BUT CHINESE GOVERNMENT BAD! Yes. Politics is banned on this forum. But I think we can all agree this point.
But, shock! The same reason people in China put up with them, is the same reason people put up with Trump, put up with Obama, put up with [insert unpopular political figure not violently diposed of your choice here!]. Even moreso, most people in China remember when times were harder. The Government largely understands that people are more interested in good living conditions, and stability. There's some pretty substantial evidence to suggest that the Chinese learned from SARS, and are trying what they can. People responsible for blunders have been sacked. Things haven't been completely perfect, but anyone who has worked for military intelligence will tell you that the Chinese are not capable of some mega psy-op number distortion nonsense, especially with social media being what it is today. Do I trust the Chinese Government to tell the truth? No. Not at all. Do I trust them to be able to suppress it entirely? Also, again, absolutely no.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Those dust masks are less than useless too.. They aren't going to stop virusus getting in.
This is dangerously vague and/or ignorant. A "facemask" or "dust mask" is a generic term. A surgical mask does little to nothing to protect against the current coronavirus, but it can help reduce the spread of it by proving a physical barrier for mucus etc. It also helps reduce the spread of other non-viral droplets etc. An N95 mask, also referred to as a medical respirator, will provide protection against the coronavirus as long as it is used properly and proper hygiene is used. (Wash your hands, don't touch your face etc) A lot of "dust masks" in industry are rated to be used as a medical respirator and may even have a higher rating like the n99 masks. There are also P95 masks which are effective against oil based pollutants. The key is to look for something with a N95, N99, or P95 rating.
Spouting off assumptions and a lack of precision in language could literally get someone killed. Take this seriously.
True, but the vast majority of masks that I see getting worn are definitely not N95+ masks. They're just cheapo dust masks you'd use if you're putting up drywall or something.
Orlanth wrote:Appreciate a nice big well thought through post like this.
Thanks. There's a lot of misinformation floating around. I'm certainly not the Dakka user closest to ground zero, but I figured I might be able to add some perspective. We just had our first Coronavirus death here. The guy was old, so unfortunately it's to be expected, but there's a very real sense of people and the government bracing for what could be a very nasty bout of disease. It's not really something to be speculated about in East Asia. It's happening to us.
Grey Templar wrote: True, but the vast majority of masks that I see getting worn are definitely not N95+ masks. They're just cheapo dust masks you'd use if you're putting up drywall or something.
And your point is, what, precisely? It's probably better than nothing, and even if it is only a psychological thing, worried people are unhealthy people. No one thinks a mask makes you immune, or is a magical cure. And out here, masks are in short supply.
You don't care for it? So what?
It's a small barrier, that isn't particularly significant, but honestly it's probably slightly better than brushing against someone on the bus or the subway who's just sneezed on their hands or onto their elbows or something, or being breathed all over by someone with the flu.
But there are clearly bigger issues at work here than debating the virtues of wearing, or not wearing a mask.
Came in today, alot of responsible people have been sacked in Wuhan supposedly, ( going after swiss news) aswell as beeing forced to change official counting of cases meaning more people then first assumed have been infected.
Hooo boi that will bring quite a bit of political fallout to the place for Xi not to mention if this further escalates that might actually be big enough for a lot of internal pressure to be released.
Came in today, alot of responsible people have been sacked in Wuhan supposedly, ( going after swiss news) aswell as beeing forced to change official counting of cases meaning more people then first assumed have been infected.
That isn't what happened.
The sudden surge in cases (~15,000) came from a switch in detection methods, from blood samples only (each of which takes days) to CAT scans (which will give false positives, but you'll get results in under an hour). The blood method would have caught up to those numbers eventually, but its better for a quarantine to have the possibly infected identified sooner.
A doctor in my home town has gone full-on nutso. He started doing his rounds for a few days in a complete hazmat suit (the enclosed air kind), was warning patients and staff of how the medical system would be overwhelmed, and was handing out pamphlets that were Alex Jones levels of conspiracy theory.
When questioned about his actions by the hospital higher ups he basically rage quit.
cuda1179 wrote: A doctor in my home town has gone full-on nutso. He started doing his rounds for a few days in a complete hazmat suit (the enclosed air kind), was warning patients and staff of how the medical system would be overwhelmed, and was handing out pamphlets that were Alex Jones levels of conspiracy theory.
When questioned about his actions by the hospital higher ups he basically rage quit.
I recently went to a large car show in Toronto and there was a man walking around wearing latex gloves, a face mask AND a dust mask on top of that. Don't know why he didn't just stay home. People can be weird, especially when we reflects upon theoretical dangers.
cuda1179 wrote: A doctor in my home town has gone full-on nutso. He started doing his rounds for a few days in a complete hazmat suit (the enclosed air kind), was warning patients and staff of how the medical system would be overwhelmed, and was handing out pamphlets that were Alex Jones levels of conspiracy theory.
When questioned about his actions by the hospital higher ups he basically rage quit.
I recently went to a large car show in Toronto and there was a man walking around wearing latex gloves, a face mask AND a dust mask on top of that. Don't know why he didn't just stay home. People can be weird, especially when we reflects upon theoretical dangers.
There are definitely end-of-the-world enthusiasts in every town, it just freaks me out that a guy who's literal profession it is to know better doesn't. At least he's not one of those anti-vax doctors though.
Well with people in usa refusing to go to chinese restaurants due to virus...
Some measures are getting "bit" over. It's not that much different if at all to 2009 us one and countries weren't rushing to shut down us from rest of the world now did they? (and unlike now it was younger people that died then mostly) people in europe didn't refuse to go to mcdonalds now did they?
And spring comes soon enough getting rid of flu's then.
Racism or stupidity, either way this is being blown out of proportions.
Update from Fuzhou aka F U city/prosperous city: 2 deaths so far related to corona virus; public gathering areas has reopened, but people must wear masks and be checked for temperatures.
Wuhan remains a hotspot, but everywhere else has been declining as far as cases and deaths go in China. But I have seen some report that a cruise ship docked in Japan and end up causing some more infections; as well as Taiwan.
I also read/seen reports about vicious act: such as intentionally rubbing hand against car door handles, tossing 100 RMB(Chinese currency) bills out the window from high rise housing. So beware out there.
My personal affairs: international flight was canceled and the system automatically moved me back a day to 3/1/20; I was accommodated by the company to move my flight from 2/22/20 to 3/1/20 locally; now I just need to move my local US flight back a day too.
Was there a recent update regarding the incubation period? Last I read it was between 17 to 24 days with out showing symptoms. Has that changed? I haven't seen anything about that recently.
One of the network news channels here speculated last week that the incubation period 'might' be longer. This is, of course, extremely helpful.... in spreading paranoia.
Tonight (and most of the last week) they just blithely rattled off 'nearly 80,000 cases worldwide' and didn't bother with the slight nuance that 75,569 of 76,769 were in mainland China. Because a worldwide pandemic sounds more threatening and gets better ratings.
Mind you, the US Center for Disease Control web page doesn't help much either. Countries with confirmed cases are just all universally mapped in dark blue, regardless of if they have just 14 cases total (like the US), maybe 2 like Russia or Sweden, or 75,000 cases like China.
*numbers from WHO's Feb 21st report.
In a lot of ways the misinformation and public handling is worse than disease itself. Ukraine apparently had a riot protesting the arrival of buses transporting Ukrainians home from Wuhan. Rocks thrown at the buses and at cops.
None of the arrivals have tested positive for the disease.
Iran is reporting deaths from the Coronavirus but nobody seems to have come into contact with any foreigners ? They claim the victims have never left their local village/town ?
The potential for a longer incubation period was linked to a patient in China’s Hubei Province, where the virus was first detected in December. A 70-year-old man was infected with coronavirus, but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government reported."
The patient tested positive during a check-up 10 days after being discharged, the center said in a statement. Similar cases have been reported in other regions.
The positive result after discharge was likely due to a discrepancy in samples, the state media People’s Daily reported late Friday, citing an expert.
Official guidelines say patients must test negative for the virus twice, with at least a day between tests, before being discharged.
Hospitals had used nose and throat swabs for such tests before discharging patients, but are now required to use samples from lungs, where the virus is most likely to be detected as it develops, Lei Xuezhong, a doctor working on a treatment for coronavirus-caused pneumonia in Sichuan province told People’s Daily."
I wonder what the sensitivity and specificity of the tests they are using is. If it is low, you could get a lot of false positives or false negatives. Would not expect them to be particularly good given the virus is new.
One thing I've been wondering, and what might make this worse, is if people who have recovered from the virus continue to shed it after recovery. Its not unheard of for survivors of many diseases to become asymptomatic carriers. Even if they are healthy, they still shed the disease. Given we know that you can shed it prior to symptoms it seems possible that you'd keep shedding after recovery.
Reading the news now, I cannot see any other option but a pandemic. I cannot see poorer countries being able to contain this and its just a matter of time.
Its not doom and gloom its going to happen and we all have to deal with it.
Lets hope the scientists come up with something quickly.
Kilkrazy wrote: I think we have to assume that the WHO are pretty good at assessing infectious diseases and desgning the protocols for dealing with them.
We don't have to assume that at all. In fact, given that they dragged their feet for a week at the very beginning, hem, hawed, and refused to call it an emergency or put any protocols in place, we have evidence of exactly the opposite.
Even once they have protocols, individual countries putting them in place and enforcing them is an issue.
darkness screamer wrote:Reading the news now, I cannot see any other option but a pandemic. I cannot see poorer countries being able to contain this and its just a matter of time.
The ones currently failing this weekend are South Korea and Italy. There aren't a lot of reports of 'poorer countries' having problems.
Lets hope the scientists come up with something quickly.
Average time to create, test and distribute a new vaccine is about 10-15 years. Treatment is a different matter. There are apparently some positive signs with some old malaria drugs (Chloroquine phosphate), but its not clear how much of that anyone has lying around.
That all said, the flu is still killing more people this year, and the short/medium term economic effects from the panic are likely more earth shaking than the disease. Once things settle down, its another respiratory illness that's not particularly distinct (in effect) from the ones already in circulation.
The biggest thing about it is the live demonstration that our regional and global epidemic control measures are unsurprisingly inadequate.
Poorer nations might be more resilient in terms of having fewer of their population travelling, at least outside of the major urban trade/transport hubs. If anything richer nations are more at risk since a far larger body of the population is active and mobile and capable of long distance holidays and the like.
As for the WHO dragging its heels its likely a really hard judgement call to make between a minor outbreak and a major one. We are such a mobile world today with so many economic systems heavily reliant on the regular transportation of goods and people all over the place that pulling out the stops and shutting things down costs a fortune and can cripple countries and destroy businesses.
Kilkrazy wrote: I think we have to assume that the WHO are pretty good at assessing infectious diseases and desgning the protocols for dealing with them.
The way viruses work, it seems a bit unlikely someone could be pumping out lots of particles for weeks without having any symptoms.
I think the danger is more that a mild case of Corona virus is like having a cold, or mild flu, so people won't go to the doctor.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-china-intl-hnk/index.html "The WHO's praise of China's response have led critics to question the relationship between the two entities. The UN agency relied on funding and the cooperation of members to function, giving wealthy member states like China considerable influence. Perhaps one of the most overt examples of China's sway over the WHO is its success in blocking Taiwan's access to the body, a position that could have very real consequences for the Taiwanese people if the virus takes hold there.
The WHO's position regarding China has also renewed a longstanding debate about whether the WHO, founded 72 years ago, is sufficiently independent to allow it to fulfill its purpose."
The Geneva-based UN agency said in a situation report late Sunday that the risk was "very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level."
In a footnote, the WHO explained that it had stated "incorrectly" in its previous reports on Thursday, Friday and Saturday that the global risk was "moderate".
The correction of the global risk assessment does not mean that an international health emergency has been declared."
The WHO also has a legacy which includes the West Nile experiments on children, Ebola & HIV experimentation which infected over one million Africans under the guise of a false polio vaccine, the overreaction and fear mongering around swine flu in 2009, its inadequate response to the Ebola outbreak in 2013-2016, their International Agency for Research on Cancer having a political bias in their studies, and appointing Mugabe as a goodwill ambassador after he oversaw the decline of his country's healthcare system.
darkness screamer wrote: Reading the news now, I cannot see any other option but a pandemic. I cannot see poorer countries being able to contain this and its just a matter of time.
Its not doom and gloom its going to happen and we all have to deal with it.
Lets hope the scientists come up with something quickly.
Yes, with the news today from Italy, It's looking worse - it has changed my tune.
We are on the knife's edge - the next 2-3 weeks will be telling to where this will all end up in a few months.
The ones currently failing this weekend are South Korea and Italy. There aren't a lot of reports of 'poorer countries' having problems.
Though whether poorer countries report is another thing.
Still. South korea 51 million people, 830 or so cases. Not like it's even knocking down significant people to the flu.
And in Britain violence against chinese people over the corona. China gave warning to people not to go to US and for good reason. Not safe to go to western countries.
There are mixed reports on casualties in Iran, and a possible spike in fatality rates. Though a climb in fatality as the virus spreads to developing world countries is likely, I think the claims of 25% fatality seen in the press are due to infection statistics being less complete than fatality statistics.
I do think Iran is in trouble with COVID-19 but how much trouble is anyones guess. Trouble is this is not stopping the press from guessing.
Thought I'd pop out a quick update, because stuff is happening out here.
Over the weekend, my prefecture had its first 4 cases. A government worker, his teen son, a nurse at the hospital where the government worker was treated, and a businessman who had been working with Chinese companies. All in the same area as me... ...and both my girlfriend and I technically work for the same government offices as him... There's been a little mention of what happens if it gets bad out here, but not a lot. If the school I work at is shut, it means we have to use our paid holiday... I don't have more than 2 weeks left (wasn't planning for a big disease outbreak back in July when I went to Okinawa, silly me ), so it'll be taken out of next year's holiday .
Information is a bit blurry otherwise. A lot of people who, I will be totally honest, I don't trust for accurate info on literally anything else, have been posting stuff about how it seems worse for older men, with young kids especially being more or less unaffected (which is nice). Fatality rate remains lower than just plain spaghetti flu, which is a comfort...
...however, flu cases around here have spiked the hardest I've seen in a few years (first year in Korea and 70% of kids were off sick around late December, nationwide, if I remember right...), and part of me wonders if it's not similar to swine flu in the UK a few years back, where all summer everyone panicked, then got a weird summer flu, a few people were declared to actually have swine flu, and then it all blew over and quite a few people, myself included, turned around and said "hold up, did I catch swine flu, and it just wasn't all that bad...?". So who knows.
Went to work today after the holiday for the Emperor's birthday (thanks Naruhito!), and everyone at work was wearing masks. I even had a co-worker tell me that I should probably wear one (in the most indirect, polite, Japanese way possible) from now on. I'm down to my last, however, and am tempted to hang onto it in case things get really pear-shaped. They've completely sold out now, though I suspect that supply is being directed to larger cities etc. where tbf it's better to focus on doing what can be done for containment.
To go back to that R-word, stuff has been rising. While the local facebook page for the foreign community did have a random nutter jump in to rant about "Wuhan Flu", and say some unpleasant things to some Southeast Asian people, most of it...
...has been on the part of the expats, in my opinion. I won't name names (countries) but there is a pretty solid contingent who A. rant about how Japanese people "never wash their hands after using the toilet it's so disgusting and unclean"...
Spoiler:
they do it more than us brits, in my experience, and what a little bit o' wee-wee is gonna do about the coronavirus is...?
...and B. being dead keen to be victims of racism - a thing about NO FOREIGNERS SIGN FOUND AT RESTAURANT SOMEWHERE and all the pearl-clutching that comes with does the rounds pretty regularly, but I've seen no such thing, not now, nor in places where you get lectured about how you'll see such things, but again I never have.
I'll try to keep posting about stuff happening, and I imagine now it's in the local area, there'll probably be more cases soon.
People starting to panic stockpile food here in Slovenia, in preparation of hordes of infected Italians raiding our supermarkets once theirs are empty. Somewhat peeved that I have to stockpile food now in case these fools collapse the supply chain.
Went to work today after the holiday for the Emperor's birthday (thanks Naruhito!), and everyone at work was wearing masks. I even had a co-worker tell me that I should probably wear one (in the most indirect, polite, Japanese way possible) from now on. I'm down to my last, however, and am tempted to hang onto it in case things get really pear-shaped. They've completely sold out now, though I suspect that supply is being directed to larger cities etc. where tbf it's better to focus on doing what can be done for containment.
One of my cousin who is a biochemistry professor tells everyone that you can use boiling water and pour over the masks(outside/inside/ear or head wrap), then let it hang dry for reuse. If the water starts to leak through the mask then you should replace it. Wash your hands first when coming home, then use alcohol disinfectant and wipe down things like keys, wallet, phone, etc. Pour boiling water over the bottom of your shoes too, never know where you might have walked over.
lord_blackfang wrote: People starting to panic stockpile food here in Slovenia, in preparation of hordes of infected Italians raiding our supermarkets once theirs are empty. Somewhat peeved that I have to stockpile food now in case these fools collapse the supply chain.
The BBC did a drive-by piece on Italy's 'quarantine' yesterday. And I use the word loosely, as the road they picked had a handful of cops and some road barriers, which they moved to let people through and just let people hand off items across the 'boundary.'
No wonder they're having problems with containment.
I reckon it is impossible to stop something like this spreading, as we have seen. Not saying we shouldn't try or that being lax is okay, but I think most places are going to see this disease before long.
I reckon the fatality rate in countries with decent medical systems will not be too bad though. And the virus will likely get less virulent with time, they usually do.
Kilkrazy wrote: Japanese are obsessively clean in my experience.
Well I have seen plenty japanese leave toilet without washing hands...but then again plenty of non-japanese as well. That seems to be more of person to person rather than country to country. Weird but in japan at least since they shake hands less than elsewhere less of an issue for me personally.
One of my coworkers just got back from Italy and seems happy enough to wonder about the place as he pleases. Annoyingly though, if he has got it and he has passed it along I won’t be able to visit my grandma anytime soon, and I promised I’d visit more after grandad passed away.
Hand washing aside, another factor I haven't seen mentioned is personal space. The buses I rode in Korea were shoulder to shoulder standing room only. This isn't to disparage anything it just came to mind after hearing about the outbreak in Korea. In my experience it's just how it is there, at least where I was at the time. The US is a little different, we like more space.
The funny part of that bus story is we went to McDonalds, near either Anjeong-ri or Pyeongtaek, and that was the best double cheese burgers I have had. Sadly there was a small bit of a language problem and I ended up with two meals and not the two burgers I had tried to order. I guess that's my equivalent of the Howard Moon pencil box story.
Kilkrazy wrote: Japanese are obsessively clean in my experience.
Well I have seen plenty japanese leave toilet without washing hands...but then again plenty of non-japanese as well. That seems to be more of person to person rather than country to country. Weird but in japan at least since they shake hands less than elsewhere less of an issue for me personally.
I'd be very happy if this put a nail in the handshake culture. I hate having the obligation to take other people's greasy, clammy, smelly paws.
The BBC website is currently running 'live updates' on the virus. Its waffling between somewhat informative and outright fear-mongering though..
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51628990
I don’t doubt that coronavirus is something to worry about, but so is seasonal flu. And we don’t crap ourselves over that too much.
It's the difference between 'news' and 'olds.' A shiny new thing focused on watching the counter tick is far scarier (more ratings) than the much larger but more familiar numbers for flu. It's also that for the flu, people have either pushed the associated death rate to the background as 'normal' or are ignorant enough to be unaware there is one.
Human psychology is fun and scarily easy to manipulate. And for much of the world (particularly the industrialized world), disease is a buzzword that they don't know how to cope with anymore. Smallpox is on its way out of living memory, Spanish Flu is barely remembered, and the major modern diseases are geographically located (Ebola) or still (wrongly) viewed as associated with specific groups. The general populace doesn't know how to process a new general contagion, so, the fear cycle spikes.
Let us put this in true perspective, flue kills far fewer people than strokes or heart disease, yet there is no 'fear' of fast food.
Flu happens, obesity related illness or smoking related illnesses happen, they ARE background, they ARE casual.
COVID-19 has its own distinct dynamic, and is no irrelevance. The fact that more people die of others things is not relevant, influenza is endemic to the human population and I don t know of any serious plan to eradicate it, and there are much larger killers out there which we can do something about but collectively wont because the diseases themselves are symptomic of our society.
COVID-19 is neither, and it is making a big hit where it strikes, and most notably there is something we can do about it. We cant stop flu, but human action can stop this. It isnt 'news' and 'olds', but a more localised threat we can deal with vs a larger one we cannot.
Let us take a completely different example. What is the difference between hit and run drives on a rampage and general driving while tired. Which kills more people? A handful of people die in hit and runs, tired drivers kill a multitude. There is a limit to what we can do to regulate driving while tired, but the police will be all over a hit and run driver. Also accident statistics don't make the news, but a psycho behind the wheel will. I do not see the focus as illogical.
The focus isn't 'illogical,' but the way its being covered by the media (and WHO and national disease organizations) is encouraging panicked behavior and paranoia. The current headlines I'm reading right are basically now 'the Italian outbreak' is creeping everywhere because of those evil Italians are sneaking in to other countries, and quibbling over the exact definition of pandemic to avoid calling it one. Neither take is actually helpful.
Lots of diseases were endemic to the human population. Smallpox certainly was. Some, like smallpox, were eliminated. The bubonic plague was reduced to a nuisance (its still around, but basic antibiotics clear it right up). Other diseases, like malaria, were targets for elimination, but efforts to wipe it out made it disease resistant and worse.
Your 'example' makes no sense. 'Hit and Run' and 'Tired Driver' aren't mutually exclusive, and neither has any meaningful relationship to a 'psycho behind the wheel.' Either circumstance, or neither, could involve a 'psycho.' Hit and Runs largely happen when the driver panics after an accident and takes off. The cause of a 'hit and run' can be anything.
Voss wrote: The focus isn't 'illogical,' but the way its being covered by the media (and WHO and national disease organizations) is encouraging panicked behavior and paranoia.
Warning people has this inevitable effect. Now the media is overegging this, but that is what the media do. Got any problem, social, scandal, economic, military etc the media hype it up, so viruses are no different.
The current headlines I'm reading right are basically now 'the Italian outbreak' is creeping everywhere because of those evil Italians are sneaking in to other countries, and quibbling over the exact definition of pandemic to avoid calling it one. Neither take is actually helpful.
Lots of diseases were endemic to the human population. Smallpox certainly was. Some, like smallpox, were eliminated. The bubonic plague was reduced to a nuisance (its still around, but basic antibiotics clear it right up). Other diseases, like malaria, were targets for elimination, but efforts to wipe it out made it disease resistant and worse.
Your 'example' makes no sense. 'Hit and Run' and 'Tired Driver' aren't mutually exclusive, and neither has any meaningful relationship to a 'psycho behind the wheel.'
It makes sense when you look at it from the human perspective. these are not subsets in a Venn diagram, they are highlighted social issues and this have blurred boundaries. Look at it that way and it should make more sense to you.
Either circumstance, or neither, could involve a 'psycho.' Hit and Runs largely happen when the driver panics after an accident and takes off. The cause of a 'hit and run' can be anything.
You are misreading this, maybe I should have been more clear, maybe you should read it more carefully, whichever is the case. Psychos were mentioned specifically. Use the context to critique the context correctly. I was not referring to any hit and run, which can just be a regular accident with someone leaving illegally afterwards to evade responsibility. I mentioned 'hit and run drives on a rampage' and 'psycho behind the wheel', this is way different from a regular hit and run. Its a deliberate act, and unlike a hit and run does make the news when it happens. Big time. There was a recent attack in Germany, there was one in the US last year at an Antifa rally. In both those cases the vehicle was stopped (it still counts as a hit and run, as that involves any accident where the driver causes harm and deliberately keeps on moving), but in many cases it keeps on going, or even escapes. Now crazies using vehicles for ramming is a tiniest proportion compared to those who die from mundane traffic collision events, such as taking the most innocuous case as the opposite extreme, driving while tired.
I choose these as two extreme examples, I could have used regular hit and runs vs drink drivers, but the analogy doesn't stack so well and much is done to combat drink driving in most civilised countries. Driving while tired however is more casual and harder to regulate against, its impact (sic) is similar to that of going to work anyway while still having the flu. Its not a story the press can bite into and not an issue any authority can adequately regulated or educate against.
The point here is that casual events can cause more harm than highlighted problems. A tired driver is unlikely to kill as many people in one place than someone who deliberately drives a car into a crowd, so there is a statistical spike. COVID-19 is like that in a way, its a localised threat which can cause a nasty casuality spike in a local area in a short period of time and cause immense disruption. It is not in any way unreasonable that it attracts more press attention and official sanctioned action, than influenza or other medical threats that make influenza only a comparitively minor issue.
Look at this on a societal level and the media and government focus because more logical and reasonable.
No politician is going to say, 'we ought not to overfocus on Coronavirus but instead tackle high fast diets and smoking'. Even though with regards to lives at risk high fat diets and smoking is a far bigger societal threat than COVID-19.
posermcbogus wrote: Haha, thanks for the tip big Mac, but the masks I could get hold of aren't nearly high quality enough to survive something like that unfortunately...
I was informed by another source that hot water does kill germs but it also kills the effectiveness of the mask, so the best solution is to use a hair dryer and blow it on hot for 3-4 minutes, and it should be good for reuse.
Argive wrote: All im saying is if there is a full on outbreak im moving to North Korea.They have no cases of Coronavirus at all! Not a single one
In the unlikely case that this anti communist virus were to get past the border guards into North Korea the great leader as devised a cunning quarantine plan. Everybody inside the quarantine zone will be shot.
It's not just how infectious it is, but also because of how highly mobile we are today. The average person in the developed world can travel all the way around the world without much trouble. Business trips and holidays are affordable and if you're really strapped for cash you can go camp out in the airport and wait for them to sell off seats dirt cheap to fill the plan due to people cancelling or not turning up at the last moment. Of course you might not get a direct path to where you want to go that way so you might end up hop-skipping around a few air-ports to get from A to B.
Even within a country we think nothing of being able to travel from one end to the other in a day (perhaps a bit longer for those in the USA by road).
For containment this is a nightmare because very quickly things spiral. The UK has 15 cases but is issuing 7000 tests. And those are likely the people they can directly trace, it ignores all the random people on the street/airport etc.. that might have come into contact with the 15 infected.
That's where the real panic sets in, its the high mobility society allowing an infectious disease to spread at a very fast rate. Whilst our social and economic situations don't really allow us to just shut everything down and stop moving for a couple of weeks on the offchance.
...a TON of public events have been cancelled. Including our annual end-of-academic-year party (that means no getting super blasted with the elderly Japanese teachers who are the most fun to drink with... ). Masks still sold out, and apparently testing kits for the virus are in pretty short supply. Most folks seem to think if you're not in REALLY bad shape, you should just self-quarantine, and everyone's being advised to top up any emergency supplies they have (or, if you're stupid, like me, actually go out an buy some for the first time because even though we rarely get natural disasters here, turns out, ya still need 'em.), so panic buying is almost certainly going to be a thing.
The number of official cases in my prefecture have risen, but only to 5 people to my knowledge, as of writing this.
BUT! Perhaps most significantly!!! Looks like all schools are being closed until April??? Which means I'm probably going to have an awful lot of free time... All out of my paid holiday, I'd assume I'll keep ya all posted in the mean time.
Also, as a former resident in Korea, I'd like to let those joking about the north to know that the most likely reason the North hasn't reported any infections is because they don't have the financial means to properly test and screen their citizens. There's a lot of transit between N.K. and China, and if there are over 1500 cases in the South, you can bet the North is worse.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Looks like I might be needing those mask tricks, after all, Mac...
Switzerland now also got it's cases, too be expected really considering Trade and buissness relationships are all over the block.
BUT! Perhaps most significantly!!! Looks like all schools are being closed until April??? Which means I'm probably going to have an awful lot of free time... All out of my paid holiday, I'd assume
I'll keep ya all posted in the mean time.
posermcbogus wrote: Haha, thanks for the tip big Mac, but the masks I could get hold of aren't nearly high quality enough to survive something like that unfortunately...
I was informed by another source that hot water does kill germs but it also kills the effectiveness of the mask, so the best solution is to use a hair dryer and blow it on hot for 3-4 minutes, and it should be good for reuse.
If you are going to give medical advice please cite sources. If you are wrong and someone re-uses a mask that they think is safe you could get someone killed. A hairdryer for 3-4 minutes on hot is probably about as effective at fighting covid-19 as "sending hopes and prayers" on facebook. While this is a different strain of coronavirus, here is an article describing the temperatures and times required to kill the original SARS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14631830 A quick google search suggests the average maximum temperature on a hair dryer is around 50-60 degrees Celsius so if covid-19 has the same heat tolerances then it would take about 90 minutes of blow drying.
idk how many times I have to mention this, but there are no masks of any kind out here. I've got one crappy one that I'm hanging onto in case I catch it and have to get to a hospital somehow, just to try and stop myself infecting other people in the worst possible case scenario. I'd love the luxury of double-masking, let alone fancy equipment like that. But it just isn't available. Demand outstrips supply by the millions.
I think it's pretty clear that those comments are presented as hearsay. I appreciate the efforts, and certainly the tone. Calm down.
(ALSO ALSO! Forgot to mention, the graduation ceremony - one of the biggest events in the school calendar - has had special restrictions put in place. Only graduating students and their parents are allowed in. Very unusual. A lot of the younger students are bummed about this.)
posermcbogus wrote: idk how many times I have to mention this, but there are no masks of any kind out here. I've got one crappy one that I'm hanging onto in case I catch it and have to get to a hospital somehow, just to try and stop myself infecting other people in the worst possible case scenario. I'd love the luxury of double-masking, let alone fancy equipment like that. But it just isn't available. Demand outstrips supply by the millions.
I think it's pretty clear that those comments are presented as hearsay. I appreciate the efforts, and certainly the tone. Calm down.
(ALSO ALSO! Forgot to mention, the graduation ceremony - one of the biggest events in the school calendar - has had special restrictions put in place. Only graduating students and their parents are allowed in. Very unusual. A lot of the younger students are bummed about this.)
DominayTrix wrote: If you are going to give medical advice please cite sources. If you are wrong and someone re-uses a mask that they think is safe you could get someone killed.
Maybe if you are seeking out critical medical advice on a forum for toy soldiers, and you got sick, you kind of did it to yourself a little bit, though?
DominayTrix wrote: If you are going to give medical advice please cite sources. If you are wrong and someone re-uses a mask that they think is safe you could get someone killed.
Maybe if you are seeking out critical medical advice on a forum for toy soldiers, and you got sick, you kind of did it to yourself a little bit, though?
DominayTrix wrote: If you are going to give medical advice please cite sources. If you are wrong and someone re-uses a mask that they think is safe you could get someone killed.
Maybe if you are seeking out critical medical advice on a forum for toy soldiers, and you got sick, you kind of did it to yourself a little bit, though?
Pretty much THE worst place to go. Nerds tend to think they're experts on everything, especially in areas where they have no practical experience.
DominayTrix wrote: If you are going to give medical advice please cite sources. If you are wrong and someone re-uses a mask that they think is safe you could get someone killed.
Maybe if you are seeking out critical medical advice on a forum for toy soldiers, and you got sick, you kind of did it to yourself a little bit, though?
Pretty much THE worst place to go. Nerds tend to think they're experts on everything, especially in areas where they have no practical experience.
Wargamers are second highest IQ per hobby group after astronomers. You will get a shotgun splatter of opinions and chances are some will be good.
You can learn a lot from Dakka when you think past the memes of internet knowledge.
Exactly...IQ <> knowledge, and nerds tend not to be the type to say "I don't know." They'd rather give an invented answer in order to sound smart(-er than you), and any real knowledge tends to get lost in the noise.
If I want to learn about the most efficient SM build, what anime I should watch, or other random nerd stuff...sure, this place is valuable. But not for basically anything else in life, LOL.
gorgon wrote: Exactly...IQ <> knowledge, and nerds tend not to be the type to say "I don't know." They'd rather give an invented answer in order to sound smart(-er than you), and any real knowledge tends to get lost in the noise.
If I want to learn about the most efficient SM build, what anime I should watch, or other random nerd stuff...sure, this place is valuable. But not for basically anything else in life, LOL.
Knowledge comes from thinking, not only from asking others to think for you. Every idea originates from someone, and not all have a source solely in empirical science. Opinion is not invaluable, the internet dilutes value but doesnt eliminate it. Have more faith in your fellow forum members there are many voices here worth listening to, you can find which ones by yourself.
Easy E wrote: The mortality rate on this is still startling small for the "panic" that it is generating.
It's not the mortality rate that's troubling, it's how contagious it is.
Indeed. 2% mortality rate doesn't sound bad, until you realize that it is very likely that a significant majority of the worlds population will be infected with it at some point. Sooner rather than later.
327 million people in the US. If everybody catches it and the mortality rate holds, that is 6.5 million dead in the span of at most a couple years. That would be a pretty major catastrophe. It would be on par with the Spanish flu which was around 2-3% fatality rate, but potentially more infectious AND its not sneaking in with WW1 as a distraction for public awareness.
And if there is any truth to China covering up how many people are dying and suppressing the numbers the actual mortality could be higher.
Yep. Pretty much only bowing been my experience. Except finnish speaking friends who come here requlary. And one grand motherly woman who did neither. She gave high five followed by bear hug much to my bemusement.
gorgon wrote: Exactly...IQ <> knowledge, and nerds tend not to be the type to say "I don't know." They'd rather give an invented answer in order to sound smart(-er than you), and any real knowledge tends to get lost in the noise.
If I want to learn about the most efficient SM build, what anime I should watch, or other random nerd stuff...sure, this place is valuable. But not for basically anything else in life, LOL.
Knowledge comes from thinking, not only from asking others to think for you. Every idea originates from someone, and not all have a source solely in empirical science. Opinion is not invaluable, the internet dilutes value but doesnt eliminate it. Have more faith in your fellow forum members there are many voices here worth listening to, you can find which ones by yourself.
Humans imo have two ways to learn:
A: Learn from own mistakes. Most effective generally.
B: learning from others mistakes. Requires a bit of thought sometimes.
It's not in my workplace yet, but it is having a big impact on what we can make and sell as nothing is happening in China and a lot less planes are flying around
Easy E wrote: The mortality rate on this is still startling small for the "panic" that it is generating.
It's not the mortality rate that's troubling, it's how contagious it is.
Indeed. 2% mortality rate doesn't sound bad, until you realize that it is very likely that a significant majority of the worlds population will be infected with it at some point. Sooner rather than later.
327 million people in the US. If everybody catches it and the mortality rate holds, that is 6.5 million dead in the span of at most a couple years. That would be a pretty major catastrophe. It would be on par with the Spanish flu which was around 2-3% fatality rate, but potentially more infectious AND its not sneaking in with WW1 as a distraction for public awareness.
And if there is any truth to China covering up how many people are dying and suppressing the numbers the actual mortality could be higher.
Not to mention the massive economic impact of having so many people with reduced labor capacity, and the impact of their changes in spending habits while sick.
It's not in my workplace yet, but it is having a big impact on what we can make and sell as nothing is happening in China and a lot less planes are flying around
Thanks Kroem, much appreciated.
Spoiler:
Ernestas wrote: My country already have one confirmed case. 40 kilometers from my home town, yay I guess. People here are on an edge already and if it turns out that virus is out and infecting people on its own, nation will be closed down and some people are already buying out stores. Woman who contracted virus obviously traveled through airport, went through major town, maybe took bus. With incubation period of up to one week we will know only next week if virus is spreading or not. Our company had released a mandate that anyone who came back from country where this virus spreads gets half a month of paid holiday (remote work). No exceptions. No matter how you feel.
If you ask me, instead of fearing it, we should view it as a generous gift for what it is. We should spread it instead, sell it that no home would go without this gift. Vials of virus cocktails should be available where individual could use it to infect himself with diseases. One to get sick. Another to inject weakened virus through most unfavorable conditions. In this way, actual mortality and severity of disease would drop severely as individual effectively immunitized himself. Hmm, I think Nurgle was right all along! Even air here grew cold as this gift had arrived. Coincidence? I think not!
In the end, I enjoy this pandemic. I'm one tough bastard and I'm rather amused and welcome this challenge. So, I'm not worried at all about this cute little disease doing me any harm. Yet, this panic and fear is useful that it is quite likely to get paid vacation time for free.
Ernestas also wants you to throw away your lasrifle and only use your sword in combat. Not only is he promoting the waste of Emperor Gifted weapons, but also the audacity to propose that regular infantryman should be issued with swords like their higher ranking betters!
He's clearly insane and touched by the taint of chaos.
Not to mention that whilst physical fitness is a good benefit for fighting off sickness, its not the only thing. MANY a strong and powerful person has been struck low by sickness without warning or any chance of recovery without medical aid.
Ernestas, while I admire your pluck and apparent physical fitness, I feel like I ought to warn you - if you're a man over 40, you really should be careful. Moreso than any other group, that one seems most affected. We've actually had official government correspondence telling us so. Maybe you are a tough dude, but you might just be unfortunate enough to be pre-disposed to catching this. Take care of yourself, please.
As for shortages and panic buying... Also not fun. My town has run out of toilet paper for some reason??? Also, people are starting to buy up the rice, and other dried foods. Might be a crazy one.
As for PM Abe closing the schools. Most regional governments here spent all of today in a flap. Seems to be going off of a school-by-school basis, with a lot of local politicians trying to win points by either siding with, or rejecting the PM. I've still not heard what my school is going to do, seems like we'll have a better picture on Monday.
I work for a vacation company for my day job. It’s effecting our biz a lot, customers are canceling left and right but for the most part are happy to exchange for something 6-12 months later or a different destination. What really sucks for customers is they can’t cancel their airfare.. airlines never give refunds. Biggest crooks of all time. But there are still people booking trips, so at least not everyone is drinking the kool aid the news media is handing out. Still has me a bit worried about my cruise in June, final payment is due next week, and we already paid for our non refundable flights so we kinda have to go.
This sort of epidemic was inevitable given global travel patterns. It is somewhat surprising it took this long for one to take off.
It is sad for the people who are especially vulnerable - older people and those with pre-existing medical conditions. I don't think it will be easy to contain the disease unless you have some sort of significant geographical barrier. Even then, it would take fairly draconian measures that most democracies would not take to stop the spread.
As a young(ish) person with no medical issues, I am not super worried for myself, but I am concerned about my elderly relatives, particularly my in laws who are in their late seventies and eighties. My wife already lost her father in November, I don't want anything to happen to her mother or aunt and uncle. Edit: Though I know it was just a hypothetical, I think it is unrealistic to imagine the entire population of any country or even city being infected. A lot of people world wide will probably die, but the chances of EVERY person being infected...well it is unrealstic to think that. 2% mortality on something this contagious is obviously pretty bad though. I hope they can get a vaccine up and running soon.
Edit2: Huh. My school is closed for students on Monday. I work in an International School, we have been on Spring Break. I guess it makes sense, we have many students from China, Iran, Italy and other places where the outbreak is more severe than here. I will be going in in any case to be informed about the plan. It might be that we are only closed for a day or so as we get procedures in place for how to deal with this, or we might be closed more long term. As a hub of international travel, we are a greater risk for sure.
Necros wrote: I work for a vacation company for my day job. It’s effecting our biz a lot, customers are canceling left and right but for the most part are happy to exchange for something 6-12 months later or a different destination. What really sucks for customers is they can’t cancel their airfare.. airlines never give refunds. Biggest crooks of all time. But there are still people booking trips, so at least not everyone is drinking the kool aid the news media is handing out. Still has me a bit worried about my cruise in June, final payment is due next week, and we already paid for our non refundable flights so we kinda have to go.
I've found now is actually the best time to travel. So many travel sites are cutting costs and hotels are almost empty in some places. It's quite nice to pick and choose for relatively cheap prices.
Orlanth wrote: Knowledge comes from thinking, not only from asking others to think for you. Every idea originates from someone, and not all have a source solely in empirical science. Opinion is not invaluable, the internet dilutes value but doesnt eliminate it. Have more faith in your fellow forum members there are many voices here worth listening to, you can find which ones by yourself.
This quote could be directly pulled from every parent who goes to a facebook group or mommy blog for advice on vaccines.
I stand by my statement that if you come to the Dakka OT for medical advice, you deserve what you get.
Orlanth wrote: Knowledge comes from thinking, not only from asking others to think for you. Every idea originates from someone, and not all have a source solely in empirical science. Opinion is not invaluable, the internet dilutes value but doesnt eliminate it. Have more faith in your fellow forum members there are many voices here worth listening to, you can find which ones by yourself.
This quote could be directly pulled from every parent who goes to a facebook group or mommy blog for advice on vaccines.
I stand by my statement that if you come to the Dakka OT for medical advice, you deserve what you get.
Leave it to Ouze to succinctly say the obvious.
My only recommendation is this: discuss any questions that you may have with your healthcare providers. If your employment has an Occupational Health coordinator, start there... if you, like I do, work in the healthcare field, reach out to your Infection Control department. The health institutions and various levels of governments has plans in effect and/or in the works to address this.
I'm surrounded by pharmacists in my line of work and everyone here has the finger on this "pulse". The biggest difference I have found in the literature and my discussions between this virus and other flu viruses is that there is no vaccine for this one. Also, since this strain is new folks never had it before, so our bodies have had no previous experience with which to build up an immunity, i.e., a means of fighting it off naturally. So we’re more than likely to get sick if we contract the virus.
Further, this one is airborne, it seems, which many people are now casually citing as “proof” that this coronavirus is different from a flu. Where In fact, many other flu viruses are also airborne viruses.
Frankly, what the amount that medical experts know about any virus is dwarfed by the amount they don’t know, which is why they are continually correcting themselves and adjusting the textbooks.
SIDEBAR: it's really interesting to work with numerous viologist/microbiologist where they almost always fit in two category:
1) The germophobe kind - they know the bugs and where they live
2) The 'eat food off the floor' kind - they know the bugs and where they live
Almost no daylight between the two.
Is coronavirus technically a flu virus? At the moment, many sources say “there are differences,” but then they cite differences that have more to do with severity or intangible unknowns about this virus, rather than essentially non-influenza facts about it.
It acts a lot like a flu, is spread like a flu, has symptoms like a flu, and it is being compared most closely to the SARS and MERS outbreaks, which those are now categorized as influenza outbreaks. Treatments strategies are very similar between the two and over time we'll figure out the optimal treatment plans.
TL;DR: This coronavirus-19 is a virus that causes symptoms explicitly comparable to flu symptoms, and requires treatment like a flu, and is susceptible to an eventual vaccine discovery, like flu viruses. It is something we ought to be aware of and take precautions just like the seasonal influenza we experience every year. But, as it stands it is not The Black Plague nor the Spanish Flu of 1918 (a strain of H1n1), so there's no reason to start inching towards your bug-out bag and disappear. Just practice the same common sense as you do during flu seasons... that is, wash yo hands you filthy animals!!!!
It's really weird. Normally, I'm more concerned about catching something and infecting my family when I get back whilst on a work rotation.
Now I'm actually safer than my family, as two cases have been confirmed in the Netherlands with a bunch more just across the German border, and here in Angola there's nothing yet.
Orlanth wrote: Knowledge comes from thinking, not only from asking others to think for you. Every idea originates from someone, and not all have a source solely in empirical science. Opinion is not invaluable, the internet dilutes value but doesnt eliminate it. Have more faith in your fellow forum members there are many voices here worth listening to, you can find which ones by yourself.
This quote could be directly pulled from every parent who goes to a facebook group or mommy blog for advice on vaccines.
I stand by my statement that if you come to the Dakka OT for medical advice, you deserve what you get.
Leave it to Ouze to succinctly say the obvious.
Leave it to Ouze to crop a quote to destroy its actual context, and then mis-attribute it to a different subtopic. The above was a reply to a specific point.
I did NOT say going to Dakka for medical advice was a good idea. That was another persons conversation deeper in the thread, and seen correctly as a joke comment. Come on guys reading isn't hard.
What I said was that you can get a decent range of opinions from Dakka. We can have an intelligent conversation on COVID-19, well some of us can. This doesnt mean we are claiming to be doctors.
Stop with the strawman BS please.
The weird thing is I'm not even really directing a single thing I said at you, but rather that other person in the thread, who kept scolding people who gave out allegedly bad information about facemasks that "could get someone killed". Yeah, that's what you get when you get medical information from 40K message boards, and blaming the message board for army men for not being the CDC is... wrong-headed, lets say.
Sure, there is value in having general discussion here, I mean it's an interesting news topic. But it definitely cannot and should not be a vehicle for anything in terms of practical, useful medical advice and getting upset that it isn't isn't really different than getting upset they didn't make your Big Mac correctly at Taco Bell.
Ouze wrote: I quoted your entire post, 100% of it. Claiming I cropped it to distort your meaning is a bald-faced lie, but you do you.
What you didnt do is quote the context.
Leave it to Ouze to crop a quote to destroy its actual context, and then mis-attribute it to a different subtopic.
You misappropriated to a different subtopic, getting medical advice from Dakka rather than the actual conversation with gorgon which was to claim that you can get useful opinions from Dakka.
Let me put it another way in the hope you understand more clearly:
We can discuss sports tactics in an american football game without needing to be the quarterback. We might have something valid to say, pundits often do. Sometimes they see things the coach does not.
We can have discussions on historical subjects without having been there.
This is normal.
The weird thing is I'm not even really directing a single thing I said at you, but rather that other person in the thread, who kept scolding people who gave out allegedly bad information about facemasks that "could get someone killed". Yeah, that's what you get when you get medical information from 40K message boards, and blaming the message board for army men for not being the CDC is... wrong-headed, lets say.
That is fine, and is a good case in point. I was going to link an article from the Guardian today, which covers this and another topic. In fact lets do this right now.
It is quite reasonable to get 'valid medical advice' from an everyday citizen, including a Dakka member, if the everyday citizen heeds the broadcast medical advice on how to use masks properly or similar broadcast information. There is no irony in this as the advice is broadcast simply and in non medical language so that ordinary people can inform each other.
Anyway the article was also useful to the thread also for this:
Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
Might help with the 'flu is worse' aspect of this thread.
Sure, there is value in having general discussion here, I mean it's an interesting news topic. But it definitely cannot and should not be a vehicle for anything in terms of practical, useful medical advice and getting upset that it isn't isn't really different than getting upset they didn't make your Big Mac correctly at Taco Bell.
Sure, normally. However in times like these medical professionals would hope to disagree with you. Public cooperation is a requirement to beating COVID-19, so health agencies are trying to get through the BS and hype and deliver advice, said advice is intended to be simplified so the common man can not only remember it but tell others. We can link sources here on Dakka, and more people should do that when they put forward an opinion. Not enough people back up their comments with quotes.
Hypothetically, if the 2% mortality rate that the Chinese are saying is true, I don't think that number will be accurate for the US and Europe.
Nutrition, medical care, education, and clean air all play a part in how deadly this virus is, and how much it spreads. Since the Chinese populous is lower in all these levels I think it might be deadlier to them than others.
However, perhaps I'm wrong, this is just a leman's view.
What's worrying me is the reports that are coming in of people who had the virus, then tested negative testing positive again several weeks later
If this is true it suggests either
1. a person might not totally clear the virus with a normal immune response meaning they'll come out of quarantine and potentially start spreading the virus again before they realise something is wrong (and subseqentyly people will need to be quarantined for a lot longer)
or
2. The virus does not generate a strong immune response meaning you can catch it again very quickly after you've had it and also that man made vaccines could very well have similar problems (although they might be able to trick the immune system into a more long lasting response with a vaccine)
Hopefully its option 1 and with some identification that people can become a second ticking time-bomb of infection an extension of any isolation measures can help reduce that dramatically. Of course this only works if a person is identified as having had the sickness.
Anyone who might get sick, not report it and then return to life as normal could potentially spread it around and start the whole thing over again.
Now, there is a point in here, however the disease is known to affect people with pre-existing respiratory issues particularly badly. Anyone from and built up, industrial city, or anywhere were there are high levels of pollution - so where I grew up, inner-city London and under the Heathrow flight lines - should be cautious. Just because China has a (pretty well-deserved) reputation for pollution, doesn't mean the rest of the world needn't be vigilant. With deaths pretty steadily trickling in from most infected nations, the only thing that's very remarkable about China is that as the epicenter, they've so far been hit hardest.
Ouze wrote: I quoted your entire post, 100% of it. Claiming I cropped it to distort your meaning is a bald-faced lie, but you do you.
What you didnt do is quote the context.
Leave it to Ouze to crop a quote to destroy its actual context, and then mis-attribute it to a different subtopic.
You misappropriated to a different subtopic, getting medical advice from Dakka rather than the actual conversation with gorgon which was to claim that you can get useful opinions from Dakka.
Let me put it another way in the hope you understand more clearly:
We can discuss sports tactics in an american football game without needing to be the quarterback. We might have something valid to say, pundits often do. Sometimes they see things the coach does not.
We can have discussions on historical subjects without having been there.
This is normal.
The weird thing is I'm not even really directing a single thing I said at you, but rather that other person in the thread, who kept scolding people who gave out allegedly bad information about facemasks that "could get someone killed". Yeah, that's what you get when you get medical information from 40K message boards, and blaming the message board for army men for not being the CDC is... wrong-headed, lets say.
That is fine, and is a good case in point. I was going to link an article from the Guardian today, which covers this and another topic. In fact lets do this right now.
It is quite reasonable to get 'valid medical advice' from an everyday citizen, including a Dakka member, if the everyday citizen heeds the broadcast medical advice on how to use masks properly or similar broadcast information. There is no irony in this as the advice is broadcast simply and in non medical language so that ordinary people can inform each other.
Anyway the article was also useful to the thread also for this:
Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
Might help with the 'flu is worse' aspect of this thread.
Sure, there is value in having general discussion here, I mean it's an interesting news topic. But it definitely cannot and should not be a vehicle for anything in terms of practical, useful medical advice and getting upset that it isn't isn't really different than getting upset they didn't make your Big Mac correctly at Taco Bell.
Sure, normally. However in times like these medical professionals would hope to disagree with you. Public cooperation is a requirement to beating COVID-19, so health agencies are trying to get through the BS and hype and deliver advice, said advice is intended to be simplified so the common man can not only remember it but tell others. We can link sources here on Dakka, and more people should do that when they put forward an opinion. Not enough people back up their comments with quotes.
Thank you. This is literally all I was asking for is that if someone makes a claim, especially if its medical advice or something along those lines, to please cite a source. The person I "scolded" was claiming their cousin is a biochemistry professor as an appeal to authority and then proceeded to give out incorrect advice which I refuted. WITH SOURCES.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: What's worrying me is the reports that are coming in of people who had the virus, then tested negative testing positive again several weeks later
If this is true it suggests either
1. a person might not totally clear the virus with a normal immune response meaning they'll come out of quarantine and potentially start spreading the virus again before they realise something is wrong (and subseqentyly people will need to be quarantined for a lot longer)
or
2. The virus does not generate a strong immune response meaning you can catch it again very quickly after you've had it and also that man made vaccines could very well have similar problems (although they might be able to trick the immune system into a more long lasting response with a vaccine)
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: What's worrying me is the reports that are coming in of people who had the virus, then tested negative testing positive again several weeks later
If this is true it suggests either
1. a person might not totally clear the virus with a normal immune response meaning they'll come out of quarantine and potentially start spreading the virus again before they realise something is wrong (and subseqentyly people will need to be quarantined for a lot longer)
or
2. The virus does not generate a strong immune response meaning you can catch it again very quickly after you've had it and also that man made vaccines could very well have similar problems (although they might be able to trick the immune system into a more long lasting response with a vaccine)
There was japanese woman who caught it second time. Tough luck
My boss's business travel to Seoul and Japan has been cancelled because the people he was going to meet will be in quarantine.
Meanwhile I'm on a rush job to make printable digital files of the first three units of a bunch of course books, because the physical printed books can't get out of China, where all our printing is done.
To put a human face on things, here is a piece written by a Chinese guy who caught it.
Grey Templar wrote: Apparently the first death in the US just occurred. Elderly women in Washington.
Updated with a correction: 50 year old male (the error was the CDCs, not yours).
I think he also had the "Underlying Health Condition" before he caught the virus - something which most likely made him less able to fight off/survive this infection.
If you have "underlying health conditions", that's where this one probably really kicks in hard.
Everything I've read is saying the usual "Flu Precautions" work here - wash your hands, don't touch your eyes/nose/mouth and avoid large crowds as much as possible.
cuda1179 wrote: Hypothetically, if the 2% mortality rate that the Chinese are saying is true, I don't think that number will be accurate for the US and Europe.
Nutrition, medical care, education, and clean air all play a part in how deadly this virus is, and how much it spreads. Since the Chinese populous is lower in all these levels I think it might be deadlier to them than others.
However, perhaps I'm wrong, this is just a leman's view.
Mortality is like 0.5% in South Korea, right?
This scaremongering is deplorable. We are sold out of disinfectants and face masks nation wide, scalpers are charging 10x the old price and denying them to those who actually need them all year round.
This disease is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. It's gonna join the current array of seasonal viruses and when it circles the globe a second time next winter it won't even make the news.
Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
So. If 1% fatality holds and it reaches as many people as seasonal flu, we are talking approx 5 million deaths. At 0.5% 2.5 million deaths.
Allowing for the voracity of this infection, long incubation times, long infection latency and the chance of reinfection after exposure it could well be far worse than that.
Yes it is a threat, and no that isn't scaremongering.
Containment is a good idea.
There *is* a bit of sensationalism with regards to covid-19 when you see the word pandemic and no vaccine. There are influenzes that are literally pandemics and certain strains where there are no vaccines for it, which has also caused over 80k deaths in the US alone this year.
Of course, we should be concerned and of course we should be exploring containment strategies. Especially those whom are already compromised and would be especially vulnerable. But, the "scaremongering" and "sensationalism" is a wee bit much.
The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?
People have went nuts buying out stuff in Australia after media fearmongers put out a list of stuffs stock that would be effected by the virus. Also disaster profiteers trying to flip toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
Someone even stabbed someone with a knife in the toilet paper aisle of a supermarket today.
Dropbear Victim wrote: People have went nuts buying out stuff in Australia after media fearmongers put out a list of stuffs stock that would be effected by the virus. Also disaster profiteers trying to flip toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
That's... pretty weird. Toliet paper seems utterly unrelated, and the frequent medical advice here (from various gov't and media doctors') doesn't mention hand sanitizer at all. They skip it and suggest frequent hand washing... with soap and water.
Like the masks, they're pretty dubious on the effects on hand sanitizer.
@Easy E- who do you work for that they have the authority to issue travel bans? And where are they banning?
For Hand Sanitizer its the perception that it is helpful. Frankly I'm of the opinion that it contributes to super bugs. Only useful if in need of a quick clean and can't use a sink.
With Toilet paper its one of those products that always becomes scarce in the event of any emergency. Bottled Water and Toilet paper are the most common things that sell out in a disaster.
The toilet paper thing is apprently down to a bogus rumor about it being produced in China, and the factories have been affected by the manpower crisis due to quarantines etc. We've got the same situation here. Sold out for a while.
One of the major computer game fairs has also cancelled/delayed. Apparently they are not only refunding tickets, but there's also a collection going on with them and the bigger companies attending in order to help out smaller and indie firms who were going to attend in order to cover the costs of things outside of the ticket. All the banners/equipment etc... that they have to invest in to put on a stall. Small costs for the big names, but for indies they can be a considerable investment.
https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-gdc-relief-fund-is-raising-money-for-indies-affected-by-the-postponement/
So its not all doom and gloom and its nice to see the games industry taking a step to help the smaller names through what is (hopefully and likely) going to be a short term blip in terms of conventions and events.
nareik wrote: The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?
Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...
nareik wrote: The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?
Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...
The smaller predatory flu viruses have obviously fled their usual hunting grounds scared off by an invasive new pred ~ Coronazilla!
It's a shame so many conventions are closing down, however some can hopefully adjust to a new time slot; for those closed I just hope they don't collapse until next year.
Really hard hit will be the small time attending companies and people. Those who might have pinned major launches of their products at these events.
Kilkrazy wrote: London Book Fair has been cancelled after a bunch of medium and large publishers pulled out.
My brother works for a company in the trade show business. They have had to lay off almost all staff with business going away completely as more companies are either canceling their attendance in shows or shows canceling completely.
Thus far, despite multiple confirmed cases in town and a half dozen deaths a couple hours north in Seattle, my office remains open and unfazed, while our annual trade show on the east coast has gone off without issue.
Our supply chain people however are making noises about supplier shortages and disruptions. Delays will shortly start to make themselves felt.
My cousins wife is a doctor, and neither one of them are bothered about this. And seeing what germaphobes they usually are, I find that significant.
I’ve had a slight runny nose today, 5 days after being exposed to that halfwit coworker, but that doesn’t seem to be one of the symptoms. Cough, sore throat, headaches, fever, but not a runny nose. And I almost always get a runny nose at this time of year anyway.
nareik wrote: The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?
Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...
The smaller predatory flu viruses have obviously fled their usual hunting grounds scared off by an invasive new pred ~ Coronazilla!
Haha. I suspect craze over corona has rather made people take extra care with hygiene with people washing hands ridiculously lot, avoiding large crowds etc thus doing what would cut down influenca down on any year.
At least that's my guess on the reason. People are doing what they can to avoid the new craze advertised on the news and steps that help vs that also happens to help vs influence.
BTW out of curiosity what was the period person who has caught the virus can infect others? Just wondering is there even remote chance I might carry it having met with person who came from Japan from Sapporo snow festival where are confirmed cases of corona.
Not worried though as a) it's about(I think tad more) since she was at the festival and b) I'm not on big danger group anyway. Would suck to get any kind of flu AGAIN Last month there was literally not a week I wasn't at least 1 day suffering from one kind of a bug. Should have taken rest properly and not get back to work too soon.
Boss freaked out more of that meeting though Then again he's on the age where mortality rate starts to climb so he has at least more of a reason to worry. Well as said it's quite a while since possible infection plus no symptoms on her or any of her family in this time. Doctors weren't even interested testing her out(in Finland unless you have been to Wuhan or those north italian towns don't bother to ask for checks seems to be policy)
First case just confirmed in Slovenia, a tourist recently back from Morocco via Italy. Waited until it was visually obvious that he was sick, then said SCREW PROTOCOL, I'M A BOOMER, and went to a waiting room in a general hospital, got the doctor and nurse quaranteened
You know, the funny thing is that if the coronavirus turns out to be a bust in terms of infection rate and so on (which I am sure we are all hoping for), cancelling big public events and more diligent public hygiene probably means less people getting the flu (and dying from it).
Ouze wrote: You know, the funny thing is that if the coronavirus turns out to be a bust in terms of infection rate and so on (which I am sure we are all hoping for), cancelling big public events and more diligent public hygiene probably means less people getting the flu (and dying from it).
So, lemons out of lemonade!
As i mentioned that is already happening in japan and seems same thing(less flu cases than usual) has been noticed in finland.
Ouze wrote: You know, the funny thing is that if the coronavirus turns out to be a bust in terms of infection rate and so on (which I am sure we are all hoping for), cancelling big public events and more diligent public hygiene probably means less people getting the flu (and dying from it).
So, lemons out of lemonade!
As i mentioned that is already happening in japan and seems same thing(less flu cases than usual) has been noticed in finland.
So not all bad
If it gets more people to wash their hands - especially after going to the bathroom?
I keep hearing on the radio about people bulk buying tons of toilet paper. whats that all about? people are treating it like its an actual apocalypse or something, but even if it was, why toilet paper? people are weird.
I keep hearing on the radio about people bulk buying tons of toilet paper. whats that all about? people are treating it like its an actual apocalypse or something, but even if it was, why toilet paper? people are weird.
That's happening in Australia I believe. Something about somebody bought a huge amount of toilet paper and another customer thought what do they know that I don't ? Domino effect followed.
Apparently a local newspaper printed blank pages to be used as spare paper.
I can understand wanting all the TP if the virus causes death by diarrhoea. If you're on your way out like that, at least you can avoid a chapped ringpiece.
no its happening here too! people buying 50 rolls at a time.. crazy. like even if you were to hypothetically run out of toilet paper, so what? use a sponge on a stick like the romans did, or just get in the shower.. maybe I'm just a grim serviceman but that really doesnt both me in the grand scheme of things. I actually think toilet paper is pretty wasteful in this era of saving the planet.
I keep hearing on the radio about people bulk buying tons of toilet paper. whats that all about? people are treating it like its an actual apocalypse or something, but even if it was, why toilet paper? people are weird.
It's a response to toilet paper shortages in Hong Kong including an armed robbery of 600 TP rolls. Hoarding like TP is going to disappear is silly, especially when you can just buy a bidet. Keeping a 14+ day supply of basic necessities you need in case you are quarantined is more reasonable. Little things like getting a pack or two of canned vegetables instead of expecting to buy them fresh at the market. If you go through a 2L bottle of soda a week, buy a couple extra and replace them as you use them so you always have 2 in reserve.
Burning a significant chunk of your budget on things you might not need/use is detrimental since you might need that money for something else. Especially considering one of the primary methods people resupplied with in Wuhan was digitally transferring money to someone able to leave quarantine to do your shopping. A fat stack of pirate gold/silver won't help you if you need to transfer someone $20 to buy groceries.
I don't see why buying so much TP is shocking they sell a 30 pack at Walmart and a 45 pack at Sam's club.Is 600 rolls excessive sure, but TP being sold in bulk is common place.
It doesn't matter if I bring home 100 rolls. It's not like it wont get used, and makes an excellent stocking stuffer.
The most practical concern I have is with the supply chain.
Maybe businesses should put a limit on packages sold per customer. Maybe it's too late. People get desperate during a disaster, I had to drive over 100 miles just to find fuel and fuel cans after a hurricane one time. Never again.
The funny thing about the 14 day supply is that it's recommended by the CDC which is part of DHS which thinks that having a 14 day or more supply of food in your home is a sign of a domestic terrorist. Funny stuff.
In this case it really is mostly just a short term run on the current stocks and given even a week or two stocks might be back to normal.
Thing is humans do hoard stuff - heck most animals which have a concept of resources which can be moved will hoard things. Wolves will bury food; leopards will hide it in trees; squirrels will bury nuts etc....
Hoarding stuff is basically resource protection against an uncertain future. Humans are only different in so much as we've built many systems that allow us a continual rate of guaranteed supply through most of our lifespan provided the country remains stable.
So in developed, peaceful nations hoarding of resources is typically not seen as necessary outside of extreme situations. Plus most of them will be short term extreme situations by and large so even when we do; we don't have to hoard that much.
Seems rumour in australia started that toilet paper production in china went to zero and australia's tp comes from there. Ergo stock up since supposedly no more production for a while due to horrible corona virus.
Humans are not particularly logical creatures. Thankfully such panic hoarding hasn't started here but if cases starts to increase...Oh boy.
Worst part of the virus isn't virus itself nor the deaths but the ridiculous overreactions people do in panic.
It's also entirely possible the current run on TP could be because people expect other people to buy it all out in anticipation of a run, rather than actual panic about a production shortage.
For my part, I did go ahead and pick up an extra pack last time I went grocery shopping - along with enough dried rice and canned food to last 14 days of isolation or two years of randomly realizing I'm out of my regular bachelor chow.
Edit: However, at least locally, there is currently no shortage of any such supplies here.
Kilkrazy wrote:The road death rate must be way down in Chinese cities, too.
I calculated at the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, the population was probably gaining because the road deaths saved were more than the virus deaths.
It seems to be the inverse of what happened after 9/11. People started taking the car more often even for longer trips which led to more traffic accidents, injuries, and deaths.
Kilkrazy wrote: I can understand wanting all the TP if the virus causes death by diarrhoea. If you're on your way out like that, at least you can avoid a chapped ringpiece.
It could be a great marketing piece for Japanese bidet toilet seats - 'If you're gonna die, at least make sure your nethers are in comfort."
I got back to Henley tonight and went to the local Waitrose for a bottle of wine.
The loo roll aisle was gutted. Almost nothing left except some kitchen towel.
I'm just amazed people would rather stock up bog roll than food.
In other virus related news, the UK had its first fatality at my local main hospital in Reading, and two infected people were diagnosed in Oxfordshire.
My wife was freaking out to know where they were. It could be down here in Henley, or in Chipping Norton 60 miles away for all I know.
The company I work for officially banned shaking hands as a business greeting, and cancelled an international meeting in Oxford the week after next.
My coworkers and I were lamenting not stocking our store with dust masks. We don't even have cases yet and people are asking for them. Could have made a decent sale.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Holy jeez, I bet waitrose toilet rolls cost an absolute packet.. But I suppose if you live in henley you're likely to be able to afford it! Haha
But damn, thats close to me! I live between Oxford and Reading. Guess it's time to batten down the hatches!
I buy most of my TP at Aldi or Lidl.
My wife has informed me that bog roll is more essential than food.
Fortunately I got a bag of 24 last weekend, so we are alright for a while.
I was amused to read a comment from a Mumsnet post which said something like "I'm a prepper so I bought loads of TP."
No you're not. If you really were a prepper you wouldn't need to buy anything because the apocalypse you were supposedly preparing for has now arrived and you're ready.
You guys got me all scared, we're dangerously low on TP and were gonna head to Target to stock up tomorrow. Luckily it's not in my area yet so hopefully they'll have some left that isn't the scratchy store brand. We need Charmin for our tender bums.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: How is tp more important than food?! Haha. The vast majority of the world don't even use toilet paper!
Mostly because right now, at least in Australia, it was toilet paper that was rumoured to be going out of stock due to factory shut downs in China. At present the actual food distribution system in most countries isn't being hurt at the production end. It's only at the supply end that the roughly 2 week store supplies on shelf are being stripped in only some product lines and in some areas. Basically there's no predicted food shortage from this as yet. Indeed the only shortages that might happen are more at the individual level for those groups isolating themselves. Even with that we've got a very advanced home delivery system now from companies like Tescos. Systems that, in a panic, could be tapped into to improve hygiene security if required; thus providing a mobile and safe home food delivery system.
I think food would only become a risk if major portions of the farming and food production groups were to be shut down.
) and not capable of fast solutions and medtech (ever been in basel?) and we are not ready to help our neighours (even tough we joke about ours, doesn't mean we wont help them and work with them also scientific integration is at an all time high with the 
), so it'll be taken out of next year's holiday 
.
I never have.
