Overread wrote: The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off.
This is in my opinion the correct strategy. and those members in the UK need to be aware of the consequences, now. The UK will have the same pattern curve as most western countries, but hopefully not Spain or Italy which were caught with their pants down. This was in come respects inevitable due to the relaxed culture of officialdom of most Mediterranean societies.
What this means is that virus spread will be bottlenecked if at all possible so the NHS only has to deal with a portion of the problem at a time. Now this will not be entirely possible but the UK will see major growth rather than exponential growth in infection cases.
We can expect:
1. Further measure will be taken.
2. Exposure risk will rise individually for the next two months or so.
I cannot forcast beyond that point.
So, what am I saying is: PREPARE NOW.
Get stocks in now, while the RNG for infection for a supermarket visit is relatively low. But tins and frozen goods, but powdered milk for your tea and breakfast cereal, even if you hate the stuff. Wean yourself off any goods that have to be fresh. There will be a peak virus time, you want to be isolated when that happens.
Also save up now. Employment may be heavily disrupted.
If you are quick quiet and level headed there is still much that can be done to improve your situation if you act now. Good luck and start prepping for peak virus.
As for "losing loved ones" its a simple statement of blunt fact. To have avoided it or brushed it off would have been foolish. Confronting it head on in clear and simple language can be a key part in reinforcing the seriousness of the situation to many who might not feel at threat.
Agreed, though the prepared can mitigate the RNG.
You need to read between the lines. The government can prep people for casualties, they cannot tell people to stock up. Not for all 70 million of us, at once.
I appreciate all that you said but Dakka can’t handle politics. That was proven multiple times over. Not even the staff could conduct themselves with any decorum. By all means concentrate on the science and supporting each other during this time but the politics won’t help.
Sorry but even the last page show otherwise, and nobody here is trying to be party political. The science and the social maneuvering relates to central policy. The politics is totally unavoidable unless you want to reduce the thread to uninformed base platitudes.
My wife's a teacher, and her school district started Spring Break today. Yesterday they announced they'll extend it by two weeks, so she's off until April 6th. Me, I still have to go back to work on Monday. Telework is not an option for me, and the only way we're shutting down is if there is a government-wide shutdown, or someone with a confirmed case of the virus is in the building.
Last weekend I bought a big pack of toilet paper at Sam's Club (they were almost out), because I figured I better buy it now in case there isn't any to buy when we run out of what we have. Sam's was otherwise fully stocked of other stuff as the time. This morning I went to the same Sam's Club, and oh boy was it different. At least twice the number of usual shoppers, and about half all had the exact same contents in their carts: a case or two of bottled water, and a big pack of toilet paper and maybe paper towels. I had a bit of fun wandering throughout the store to see what was out-of-stock and what was still remaining. Lots of fish (fresh and frozen) and frozen vegetables left, but almost no meat (fresh or frozen) or fresh vegetables. The pork was all gone, the more expensive steaks were still there, and they were restocking the chicken while I was there. My wife was happy: Diet Coke was still in stock. Some shelf stable things were running low, like pasta, but still lots of canned goods still there.
Galas wrote: I don't think the herd inmunity theory will play out.
At the same time I'm no expert and tbh I believe this is taking all the world with the pants down, so even experts will have a difficult time predicting how things will play out (That doesn't mean we shouldn't trust them of course)
Agreed. Society is vulnerable not so much to the virus itself, but to the inevitable logistical disruption directly and indirectly, and to a sales plunge (possibly to near zero) for impacted industries, which can lead to profit warnings, job losses and possibly market disruption. Greed then might tip the whole thing into a general market collapse.
Two weeks ago we were making fun of the chinese. A week ago from Italy. And we are here right now. At least other countries are taking example before things go so bad, unlike we did on Spain with Italy so close to us.
Two weeks ago I was getting trolled heavily for warning that this could get very bad. Not all of us were laughing.
That being said I didnt extend my prep, I had stores ready, so I bought sisters instead. I should have never bought the Sororitas army but should have thought, 'now I know what I am prepping for, how to I tailor my prep in the forewarning period?' I watched coronavirus and saw it had allt he chances of being bad, but didnt buy in specific epidemic prep related stores. So I have hand gel in stock but nowhere near enough.
You will be fine with soap and water, don't worry too much.
The worry I have with the herd immunity plan is it seems to throw the vulnerable under the bus for future economic benefit, it relies on certain assumptions about the virus being true, and it runs the risk of causing a catastrophic overloading on the NHS if the risk model is wrong.
However, basically the same things are true of most other approaches, only time will tell which approach is the correct one. I will be happy to be wrong if the UK approach works, but currently I think a more strict approach with an aim to containment is more prudent.
(fwiw I used to be a vet (as in animal medicine) epidemiologist and worked in risk modelling and prediction for the spread of parasitical diseases. Not viral, not human, obviously, but I have a fair grasp of the principles behind this. Risk models can easily be wrong when they are based on faulty assumptions or incomplete data, so likely most of the models we are working with will be off by a fair bit in one direction or the other. This is a problem when dealing with an exponential curve, because if you are off by a bit it results in a pretty steep increase in infections because of the nature of the curve.)
What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.
Orlanth wrote: Sorry but even the last page show otherwise, and nobody here is trying to be party political. The science and the social maneuvering relates to central policy. The politics is totally unavoidable unless you want to reduce the thread to uninformed base platitudes.
If it’s possible to lock out the trouble makers from the start then maybe. I still think it’s a bad idea though. I mean I completely understand were you’re coming from but past experiences here have jaded me.
Gitzbitah wrote: Florida, in the US, has closed all schools until the end of March and is deep cleaning them in the hopes of slowing the spread of the virus.
The schoolboard is also refusing to let anyone come back to work after traveling out of the country or going on a cruise until they complete a quarantine period.
2020 the year summer vacation came extra early.
That might explain why the grocery store was so busy.
Yeah, expect pre-hurricane grocery conditions for a week or so as everybody stocks up.
The weirdest thing is that my county, Hillsborough won't be losing any school days- after our Spring break is over, we're supposed to do online school for our students. Theoretically, we won't end up losing any time and Summer break will come normally.I'm very curious to see how it works, and I imagine the powers that be will watch our test scores with great interest.
Hopefully the bean counter will work it out quickly. Just across my FB feed now, my county has extended Spring Break for an extra week which may have been what you were talking about but it seems like a good plan as they students would be out of school for most of that already. Hopefully it'll be good enough.
I just spent 40 minuets vacuum sealing a bunch of dry food. My Dad has been using one of these sealers for years and gave us this one for Christmas. We're using the heck out of it.
Funny on the timing of everything, I just got an enormous chest freezer mid way through last year. Something like 24.8 cubic feet. Hopefully I can work up the energy to stuff our 3 pigs in there.
The worry I have with the herd immunity plan is it seems to throw the vulnerable under the bus for future economic benefit, it relies on certain assumptions about the virus being true, and it runs the risk of causing a catastrophic overloading on the NHS if the risk model is wrong.
Love ones dying before thier time, in the relevant demographic might not be considered a tragedy by the government. The elderly are sitting on the housing stocks, taking up beds in residential homes and are drawing pensions. Horribly truth is Coronovirus will solve a lot of long term problems in the UK today. Be aware of this and prepare for a big write off. Meanwhile guard your elderly relatives with care. I have gone to great lengths to make sure my dad is stocked up. My mum is in nursing care home, and they have understandably shut their doors to visits.
However, basically the same things are true of most other approaches, only time will tell which approach is the correct one. I will be happy to be wrong if the UK approach works, but currently I think a more strict approach with an aim to containment is more prudent.
Containment will not succeed, the incubation rate and R0 are against you. Then we have buttholes who consider isolation is an excuse for a bender:
Nice. 45 minutes on the train with a group of drunks celebrating being on isolation.
Coughing, wiping hands over the tables...
To be expected from your typical English inbred scum.
(fwiw I used to be a vet (as in animal medicine) epidemiologist and worked in risk modelling and prediction for the spread of parasitical diseases. Not viral, not human, obviously, but I have a fair grasp of the principles behind this. Risk models can easily be wrong when they are based on faulty assumptions or incomplete data, so likely most of the models we are working with will be off by a fair bit in one direction or the other. This is a problem when dealing with an exponential curve, because if you are off by a bit it results in a pretty steep increase in infections because of the nature of the curve.)
The medical problems are unclear, and yes that hurts things. But lifestock are kept in pens or fields and culling is a thing. Animals do interrelate in complex webs though. You are far better placed than I to tell us what happens when an epidemic kills a portion of a species in an interrelated ecosystem.
What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.
Most will, but it only takes one to get through. The points of failure will occur when people are in denial over infection, or down some cold remedy and go to work anyway, or in at least one nasty case go on a pub crawl after being diagnosed positive as a deliberate 'feth you' to society.
I’ve got tinned soup, dry and frozen food, soap, Kleenex, bin bags...and half a dozen Bombay Bad Boy Pot Noodles. I hope that’s everything...and that I don’t explode the toilet.
Future War Cultist wrote: I’ve got tinned soup, dry and frozen food, soap, Kleenex, bin bags...and half a dozen Bombay Bad Boy Pot Noodles. I hope that’s everything...and that I don’t explode the toilet. Also, karma?
https://imgur.com/gallery/K5gnlLO
Trouble is people like that make requisition orders a thing. It would be justice for the local authorities to seize and use those supplies. But then authorities could end up going after conscientous preppers who prepared in the good times.
The UK and Ireland will be added to the US travel ban on Tuesday, largely due to rising number of cases (and possibly an expectation that the lackluster 'strategy' there will quickly ramp the virus up to Italy levels)
Da Boss wrote: Ireland has a very different strategy to the UK.
I'm sure it does, but given that all of western europe is already on the ban list, and the UK is going on the ban list, it'd be a weird gap to leave them out.
Plus, honestly, its the US government. Just distinguishing between Ireland and the UK is a major accomplishment for them.
I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.
Da Boss wrote: I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.
Obviously. That was my point- it would be weird to leave them out because they're too interconnected with both the UK and (obviously) the EU.
You seemed to be objecting to including Ireland in the ban because they have a different strategy.
Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.
Da Boss wrote: I am not saying leaving them out would be weird, there is free travel between UK and Ireland and a land border, so it makes sense to ban both if you are banning one.
Obviously. That was my point- it would be weird to leave them out because they're too interconnected with both the UK and (obviously) the EU.
You seemed to be objecting to including Ireland in the ban because they have a different strategy.
To be fair to Da Boss, I read '...the lackluster 'strategy' there...' as referring to both the UK and Ireland, too. It does imply homogeneity of approach.
My uni has abandoned face-to-face teaching from next week. They're still paying those of us on zero hours contracts for teaching we will no longer give which is the absolute minimum they should do, but still a surprise. Schools staying open for now ut it feels a lot like they'll start closing. I'm in two minds about that. I have a lot of respect for the qualifications of Vallance and Whitty but am interested in the critiques of the UK approach appearing from other virologists and (many of) their calls to close schools and mandate isolation, too. I'm also very nervous about throwing poor and abused people under the bus. Not keen on playing 'who's my favourite vulnerable group'.
timetowaste85 wrote: Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.
Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.
A lot of people focused on getting the toilet paper like its mission accomplished. Just watched a Yong Yea video he did on that.
You cant keep chasing the problem after it happens, or you will after the next item on the list to have an outage. Stock up on what is there. By the time this crisis is done the stores will be missing a lot more than just toilet paper.
There was no bread or meat at one of my local stores. Also the toilet paper area was a desolation, for some reason though there was plenty of paper towels. My family members who work at schools are now out of work until the end of the month at the very least.
timetowaste85 wrote: Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.
Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.
The alternative was being like the idiots in my town who said they were gonna wipe their asses with paper towels. Ouch.
What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.
Basically this. I see a lot of people trying to drag politics into it and make comments about how 'Boris doesn't care', or 'this strategy is imbecilic, what is the government doing', and so on. But the awkward truth is that really nobody quite knows how to handle this. Everyone's seizing all the research and stats that the Chinese are putting out and praying to God that it's accurate as they try model their response strategy/stats. But given how....liberal with truth the CCP are, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out in two years that casualities were six times as heavy as declared officially. In which case, all the models might as well be thrown out the window.
Yeah. Leadership is basically having to make decisions without all the information. And it must be very tough.
That is what you go in for when you try to become leader of a country though.
We will only see which strategy was right after this has played out. And even then, the analysis will probably allow for a lot of interpretation. As I said, I dislike Boris Johnson quite a lot, but I dislike Leo Varadkar too, and they both made pretty diametric calls on this. It isn't about whether I like them or not, it is a judgement call and there is a logic and an argument behind each one.
Even if they get it wrong, I probably won't feel that harshly toward them. Stuff like this is pretty hard to get right.
That said, I think claiming the disease is a hoax or downplaying it for political reasons is pretty despciable.
Alright guys. In Lithuania were are 8 confirmed cases. Just recently our minister had declared that Lithuania is shutting down. We had closed borders, all non essential (food, pharmacy) shops are closed. All public events are cancelled, Church is also heavily discouraged and religious authorities are likely to cancel it. Nation wide quarantine is announced for 2 weeks starting from Monday.
My worst fears came to be, I'm stuck at home with little to do. I did not took my miniatures or paints. I only took one army which is partly assembled and super glue with me. I hope my room will be still repaired as normal. Though, if worse comes be we will drive back to capital to rescue my gaming pc or my miniatures. Boredom is a main threat to me. Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop. Hmmm, we might as well go tomorrow 500 km total to save my miniatures from this quarantine!
Btw: I love UK's recent innovative solution to overcrowding.
we officially got our first case of death related to corona virus. The deceased was of 81 years and suffered from a number of other serious illnesses.
all things considered we're not doing so bad right now, with 827 confirmed cases and 1 death so far, a pittance compared to other hotspots in EU and abroad.
Ernestas wrote: Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop.
Have you considered learning to cut your own hair? I started to ct my own on 06, it get's easier. And with a few weeks stuck at home, if you mess it up you can just cut it really short.
What I am sure of is that no one wants a bad outcome with this stuff and people will try their best.
Basically this. I see a lot of people trying to drag politics into it and make comments about how 'Boris doesn't care', or 'this strategy is imbecilic, what is the government doing', and so on. But the awkward truth is that really nobody quite knows how to handle this. Everyone's seizing all the research and stats that the Chinese are putting out and praying to God that it's accurate as they try model their response strategy/stats. But given how....liberal with truth the CCP are, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out in two years that casualities were six times as heavy as declared officially. In which case, all the models might as well be thrown out the window.
Frankly I think that Boris has made the correct call so far. Scientists will disagree with each other, and the press will seek out those who disagree with the governments position and give them disproportional air time. Had this happened under Theresa May we would be in much worse trouble. Brois Johnson is not a ditherer, and he has the balls to take a position and stick with it. I am sure he is taking good advice and looking at the big picture. The policy backs this up. Herd immunity is getting a lot of heat from some who think that just means let millions of people get infected and watch 2% of those die. Which is just sensationist. The hard fact is that millions will get infected anyway, it is a matter of managing the rate at which it occurs. Carry on as normal but socially distance is the correct policy, and the elderly have been asked to isolate, sick or not, for four months. I cant think of a better way of handling this without a lot of wishful thinking.
Now at least we know how long it is estimate tom take for herd immunity to develop. I hope this works.
Boris Johnson has had to u-turn on one element, closing large venues. This wasn't necessary but pandering to this doesnt hurt efforts and will help a little, so why not. If the public insist we shut down football, it is far better if it came from them to begin with. This government is not stupid.
As for the alternative, total lockdown. First it will not work as some people who are infected but pretends they are not for one way or another will get through. Also if it did work there is no immunity just a walled off section of the populace, when the lockdown emnds there will be a fresh wave of infection. The only beneficial solution is if the community is walled off long enough for a vaccine to be developed. Israel and New Zealand want to try this strategy. Good luck to them.
Keep calm and carry on. It's got us through worse times. When your biggest concern is lack of bog roll, I hardly think we're in that bad a place.
Oddly enough, reading this thread is the only thing that's raising my blood pressure on relation to this whole thing. When I've been out and about this weekend, everyone is just business as usual, thank god. Although I have been paranoid about sneezing in front of people...
timetowaste85 wrote: Check Walgreens/CVS/RiteAid for TP. All our grocery stores were empty, I checked Walgreens and walked out w/40 rolls. Scott’s brand too, not Walgreens brand. This was last night.
Scott’s brand is single ply. You just found the equivalent of a treasure chest full of aluminum doubloons; they fill a cupboard, but they don’t go as far as you’d hope and then you’re in a sticky situation.
The alternative was being like the idiots in my town who said they were gonna wipe their asses with paper towels. Ouch.
Good call, then.
If they have access to paper towels, what about Kleenex or napkins? It sounds like they want an excuse to get rough on their bums. And aren’t paper towels are needed for all the hand washing they should be doing?
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Keep calm and carry on. It's got us through worse times. When your biggest concern is lack of bog roll, I hardly think we're in that bad a place.
Oddly enough, reading this thread is the only thing that's raising my blood pressure on relation to this whole thing. When I've been out and about this weekend, everyone is just business as usual, thank god. Although I have been paranoid about sneezing in front of people...
Population of a tad under 65 million, of which there are about 1140 known cases, and approximately 10k or so pre-symptomic.
You can go out and live life as normal and not get Cornavirus on anything but a crit fail, today. But those odds wont last long. Use the time.
Those people who are telling you to prepare are not doing so to scare you, but to wake you up to a rising danger. Don't be part of the Golden Horde, who don't prepare until it is way too late then get desperate and/or blame everyone else. If you ignore this long enough you might be caught up with a multitude of unprepared all out of the same gak. You will have blood pressure worries then.
Remember a conscientious prepper wants to be proven wrong. I would be happy for you to point to this thread in six months time and say I listened to you Orlanth and bought a lot of supplies yet it all blew over, and my cupboard is full of tins I dont need. I hope I am wrong here, I really do.
Overread wrote: The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off
Reminds me of the "flatten the curve" movement that started in late February. Essentially, social isolation has been shown to slow down transmission of a contagious disease to not overwhelm hospital beds. The irony is that, afaik, in the US, it's not an official CDC-recommendation, despite it being based on CDC paper back in 2007 to reduce the impact of contagious diseases. While US practices quarantine, it's been portrayed as part of a "containment" measure. With containment being less and less likely, this curve emphasizes "mitigation", meaning that we can't stop a contagious disease, but can at least slow it down so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. fwiw, Like vaccination, social isolation is a "herd effect", meaning that some of those who ignore taking precautions against the virus will still benefit, though will obviously be at higher risk. I'm interested in knowing the extent of permanent or long-term lung damage happens in recovered victims.
"It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent."
Overread wrote: The UK Strategy right now seems to be to basically try and create a smooth curve of infections rising and then a prolonged low steady rate followed by a dip off
Reminds me of the "flatten the curve" movement that started in late February. Essentially, social isolation has been shown to slow down transmission of a contagious disease to not overwhelm hospital beds. The irony is that, afaik, in the US, it's not an official CDC-recommendation, despite it being based on CDC paper back in 2007 to reduce the impact of contagious diseases. While US practices quarantine, it's been portrayed as part of a "containment" measure. With containment being less and less likely, this curve emphasizes "mitigation", meaning that we can't stop a contagious disease, but can at least slow it down so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. fwiw, Like vaccination, social isolation is a "herd effect", meaning that some of those who ignore taking precautions against the virus will still benefit, though will obviously be at higher risk. I'm interested in knowing the extent of permanent or long-term lung damage happens in recovered victims.
"It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent."
It also doesn't do a lot of good if only some places adhere to it. Here in Kentucky all the schools are closed down but the vast majority of my friends are still expected to go into work every day. We work in a variety of places that you would think should be closed down in this kind of event, restaurants, recreation, retail, and all sorts of other jobs that involve heavy interaction with the public. You know, the stuff that's recommended to close but for some reason isn't.
I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky. Especially stuff like retail, fast food, and pretty much any other entry level job. A lot of bosses wouldn't care if it's the zombie apocalypse, they'd still expect you to come in. I remember being a pizza guy and trying to call in sick. I could tell them I had a fever and my stomach was all torn up and their reaction would be "well you're the only driver for 4 hours, come on in for now and we'll just relieve you when someone else shows up" The best most places can hope for is that a coworker tests positive and has their position temporarily closed, and they get lucky enough to not catch it. Otherwise they just have to keep showing up and being put at risk by random folks who are either too stubborn to stay home while knowing their sick, people unaware they have it, or are people in their same boat and can't afford to stay home.
Yes, most of these people aren't at much risk themselves, but a lot of elderly work these jobs now to help with retirement. If this virus really does take a while to show symptoms while still allowing you to be a carrier, you've essentially screwed all the people in these positions and created ready made areas for Mass contamination. It essentially shows the massive problem we have in the USA with the stigma against sick leave and how a few morons abusing it ruined it for everyone. Times like this where we should be staying home and playing it safe just lead to people coming in sick because they can't afford to lose hours or worse, be considered lazy by management. Just like every. Other. Flu season. Ironically giving less sick days leads to more sick workers and less productivity, but good luck explaining that to whoever wrote the rules for most companies.
I wonder what is going to happen with people who are public transport and other jobs, how are we going to make money for those who can't? Are they just going to lay down and drown in drought?
Its crazy to think we have never had this happen in the modern world.
We seriously have to consider some form of supplementary income.
Went to get more stuff at shops. Shops around me are still being hit hard.
Vinegars, soaps, handwashes, tissues, toiletpaper, hand towels, antibacterial wipes, disinfectants, dish drops etc all bought out.
Grabbed half a dozen bags of frozen green beans, peas and brussels. Most frozen veg were gone.
Grabbed a dozen cans of kidney bean/four bean mixes. Most canned food was gone. FETHING TINNED TOMATOES WERE GONE! and those make up half the bloody shelf.
Seeing as virus persists 48 hours on soft surfaces and 72 on hard, I suggest if you do end up eating out avoid handling salt/pepper shakers before eating (unless you are willing to wash your hands in between) as it is likely these are handled often but rarely washed.
Ernestas wrote: Also, this virus had ruined my plans to go to barber's shop.
Have you considered learning to cut your own hair? I started to ct my own on 06, it get's easier. And with a few weeks stuck at home, if you mess it up you can just cut it really short.
this one is actualy my least problem. my natural hairloss came faster then i accepted and my mind cant tolerate that fact, so i removed the problem from my mind: set the buzzcutter to 1mm and cut my hair every 7 days.
But over to the bad news, allmoust 1100 infected and 3 dead in norway, we had more or less 0 infected by the end of februar.
So far just one person that was fully infected has recovered and the person describes it as a living hell to go thru.
The person was healthy and fit yet got the full force of it......
When? The classic 'KCaCO' period in the UK didn't really do that well in terms on keeping calm and carrying on. WWII saw rationing as a specific response to panic buying and the blitz brought a leap in rape, murder, robbery, and burlgary.
It's a thing to aim for, but we should expect, and be entirely prepared for, people to behave unpredictably and selfishly, and appealing to a misleading social memory doesn't get us very far, I don't think.
I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
My trip to New York in late June is now in question :(
Weak, weak sauce.
My assumption is the summer is pretty much cancelled. I was meant to be at a wedding in Chicago in June and had work in Israel and Iraq coming all of which I expect to fall. Holiday to Turkey also expected to be cancelled. I have a conference in Boston in November. Maybe that will pan out...
MrMoustaffa wrote: I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky.
You are absolutely correct that this is a problem. Schools are closing, but what if both parents have to work? Furthermore, many Americans do not have health insurance, have a high deductible, or otherwise have a disincentive to go to the hospital -- including simply not showing signs during the incubation period. The incubation exceeds 14 days, so taking two weeks off doesn't really solve anything. (IIRC, The two-week quarantine period is based on MERS (?) or another virus, since that's all the information they had at the time. Now, the incubation period is as long as 27 days.)
Pretty obviously, if we know who has the virus, we can do something about it. But we can't. The CDC have been incompetent in testing for the virus. IIRC, They did not use test kits used in other countries, then, when they did issue test kits, half (?) of them were faulty. On top of this a scarcity of test kits meant that, at least at one time, someone had to have been traveling to be tested, so "community spreaders" went undetected. : https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/a-single-coronavirus-case-exposes-a-bigger-problem-the-scope-of-undetected-u-s-spread-is-unknown/
As for accessibility to health care, take a look at this video. Jump to 2:00. Essentially, it explains that our current system, with multiple private insurers with fewer customers each, has less leverage over hospitals than public insurance (eg. Medicare, VA) so has higher costs. In other words, it's the classic, "Why can they charge so much? Because they CAN."
MrMoustaffa wrote: I love how so many people are talking about "just stay home two weeks and wait it out! Is that so hard?" on places like Facebook. How many lower class workers seriously have 2 weeks of sick time they can burn these days in the USA? Also consider the risk they take if they take the two weeks off then catch it later, you could see a person being forced to take a month off from work if they're unlucky.
You are absolutely correct that this is a problem. Schools are closing, but what if both parents have to work? Furthermore, many Americans do not have health insurance, have a high deductible, or otherwise have a disincentive to go to the hospital
Put simply, the ability to self-isolate is a class issue. Unfortunately, given the intense need for immediate funding to deal with the virus, you can't address the surrounding social issues. Consequently, loads of people are going to find themselves evicted, in extreme debt and so on. In the worst situations, abused people are going to be mandated to stay in a pressure cooker 24-hours a day with their abusers for weeks on end. Then there's the homeless.
And that's everywhere. Nations with extremely expensive, or very poor, healthcare are massively worse. It's certainly going to lead to some serious ruminations on the delivery of healthcare and the appropriate ways to prepare for pandemics (but not on this board!)
Nightlord1987 wrote: I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
I'm really sorry. I felt really bad for the workers in my local super market. I think they should be given gloves and maybe masks already to help protect them. The rest of us are relying on you guys keeping going to keep us fed. Thanks for doing this.
Harvard epidemiologist expresses disbelief over the UK's herd immunity plan. I wonder whether this will be like the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK, where the government under Tony Blair took steps based on a risk model that did not factor certain costs into it's calculations, resulting in a devastating outcome for farmers.
I hope not. But it seems like the UK approach is a pretty big gamble.
Edit to add: It should be uncontroversial that a private, insurance based and individualistic system is worse at preventative medicine. In a situation like a pandemic, prevention becomes even more important and those problems become even more apparent. However, it is the choice of those countries to have systems like that. Ireland has a similar (not quite as extreme) system and I expect it to collapse. When it does, people should reflect on how they have enabled the system to be created in this way and never voted in large numbers to change it. It is too late now to do anything about it.
I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. except for meats because we don't have enough room in our freezer to keep a lot. But we have a local small family butcher shop nearby that has great quality stuff so I'll just be going there, they were pretty cleaned out yesterday but they get new stuff in twice a week. I got a pork belly brining away to turn into bacon next weekend. They also have a market down the road with fresh milk from their own cows, eggs from their own chickens and lots of dried beans and veggies. They make a great veggie soup mix. So they will be getting more of my business over the next few weeks. I usually just go there every other month or if I want some special cut of meat to try something new. We're all stocked up on paper goods and cleaning supplies, my fiance always has tons of stuff stocked up, our cabinets are always full. She's a clean freak. I also ordered a bunch of different types of beans online the other night, so we'll have plenty of stuff in the pantry to keep us going (and farting) a while. One thing we are missing are cans of tomatoes, how can we have pasta without tomatoes? It's just not Italian that way. I think it's just this first week or so that there will be a mad dash to get everything in sight, it'll calm down soon.
Nightlord1987 wrote: I work in a super market. I'm glad some of you can work from home. All my bosses and managers see are dollar signs. I've worked 12 hour shifts all week long for the last 8 days, and counting. My local Church has cancelled Sunday mass, whike my bosses asked me to come in. Hard to avoid large crowds when they're rushing in to your place of business.
I'm really sorry. I felt really bad for the workers in my local super market. I think they should be given gloves and maybe masks already to help protect them. The rest of us are relying on you guys keeping going to keep us fed. Thanks for doing this.
Harvard epidemiologist expresses disbelief over the UK's herd immunity plan. I wonder whether this will be like the Foot and Mouth epidemic in the UK, where the government under Tony Blair took steps based on a risk model that did not factor certain costs into it's calculations, resulting in a devastating outcome for farmers.
Foot and mouth was very different. Blair was grandstanding, he wanted to make flashy decisions that made him look good. Effectivness wasnt a relevance. The farmers were not compensated decades later for lost herds.
The EU also got involved, banned UK produce, even from uninfected areas, and demanded large scale culling. There was an outbreak in France. Farmers shot infected cattle, buried them, the diseas became locally in the farming community as 'le JCB' because of how infected cattle were buried. Government and EU both turned a blind eye.
I hope not. But it seems like the UK approach is a pretty big gamble.
All approaches are gambles. First gamble is taking the correct decision rather than the one that best appeases the public. I am very pleased that the government are not pandering on this one. This is the strategy so lets follow it, and if the press howl let them howl. There has been a lot of outside the box thinking going on, like talking to arms manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers to build medical ventilators. This is so different from normal procedural thinking.
Edit to add: It should be uncontroversial that a private, insurance based and individualistic system is worse at preventative medicine. In a situation like a pandemic, prevention becomes even more important and those problems become even more apparent. However, it is the choice of those countries to have systems like that. Ireland has a similar (not quite as extreme) system and I expect it to collapse. When it does, people should reflect on how they have enabled the system to be created in this way and never voted in large numbers to change it. It is too late now to do anything about it.
This and the lack of social provision for low paid workers will bite America on the arse very deeply soon. This could well be the catalyst for the public, in real danger by this point the populace might for once become stronger force than the lobbyists. Socialism has many problems but the US has gone too far the other way for too long, when the middle class suffer alongside the poor, and problems are too pressing and cannot be ignored then it will no longer how much funding lobbyists have to spend, change must come.
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Necros wrote: I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. e
Bad idea. Very bad idea. Go to your supermarkets, wear a mask (bit like your avatar) if you can. You need two months minimum, preferably four in hard supplies. Also supermarket visits are likely to be safe for now. You can catch COVID-19 in public in the US right now, but chances are still low. Roll those dice. You do not want to have to go out for supplies one month from now. First there might not be many, second there may be queues where they are, or rationing or both. Worst of all the % risk of infection will be a lot higher.
Do not be a fool. Prepare now. If I am wrong you end up with a full larder, no biggie, if I am right you have mitigated a lot of trauma that may well be headed your way. I do not want to be right, but my track record in this thread has been accurate so far.
I would estimate we have about 3-4 months worth of paper goods along with dried / canned food like soups, rice and beans. We also have a big stock of dehydrated fruits that we mostly use for dog treats, mostly apples. But maybe 2-3 weeks worth of meat in the freezer, that's the most we can store. I do have a lot of space taken up with premade frozen work lunches that I make with dinner leftovers, so we're gonna be eating those up first to make room for more meats. Mostly chicken and pork since it's cheaper than beef, we'll probably just do ground beef and a few chuck roasts. Thinking about signing up for an online meat service like Butcher Box where you get a bunch of stuff every month. We also have a lot of bottled water since my fiance never drinks tap water. So we keep a good stock of stuff, and we just replenish what we use weekly.
I've been wanting to get one of those dead body chest freezers to put in my garage, but our garage is too small and it'll be tough to fit the cars inside, we don't have large SUVs (A jeep compass and buick encore) but i swear they design those things for mini coopers
I may head to the grocery store early in the morning this week, but I'll probably wait till around wednesday so they can restock some stuff now that the panicy types are hopefully done. But I'd rather stick to the small stores, I'd rather support those guys anyway.
One thing we really need is some new jars of Better than Bouillon, that stuff is liquid gold.
Necros wrote: I'm staying away from the supermarkets and dept stores, we don't really need anything and can last a good month or so on what we have.. except for meats because we don't have enough room in our freezer to keep a lot. But we have a local small family butcher shop nearby that has great quality stuff so I'll just be going there, they were pretty cleaned out yesterday but they get new stuff in twice a week. I got a pork belly brining away to turn into bacon next weekend. They also have a market down the road with fresh milk from their own cows, eggs from their own chickens and lots of dried beans and veggies. They make a great veggie soup mix. So they will be getting more of my business over the next few weeks. I usually just go there every other month or if I want some special cut of meat to try something new. We're all stocked up on paper goods and cleaning supplies, my fiance always has tons of stuff stocked up, our cabinets are always full. She's a clean freak. I also ordered a bunch of different types of beans online the other night, so we'll have plenty of stuff in the pantry to keep us going (and farting) a while. One thing we are missing are cans of tomatoes, how can we have pasta without tomatoes? It's just not Italian that way. I think it's just this first week or so that there will be a mad dash to get everything in sight, it'll calm down soon.
Necros wrote: I would estimate we have about 3-4 months worth of paper goods along with dried / canned food like soups, rice and beans. We also have a big stock of dehydrated fruits that we mostly use for dog treats, mostly apples. But maybe 2-3 weeks worth of meat in the freezer, that's the most we can store. I do have a lot of space taken up with premade frozen work lunches that I make with dinner leftovers, so we're gonna be eating those up first to make room for more meats. Mostly chicken and pork since it's cheaper than beef, we'll probably just do ground beef and a few chuck roasts. Thinking about signing up for an online meat service like Butcher Box where you get a bunch of stuff every month. We also have a lot of bottled water since my fiance never drinks tap water. So we keep a good stock of stuff, and we just replenish what we use weekly.
Paper goods? If these are edibles then, OK, your good then. Three months stores is reasonable and if SHTF comes you will be able to stretch three months to four. I would still buy more if and when you can, but you can more or less consider yourself a prepper now, whether accidental or no. When the music stops you have a full larder, that is what counts.
I may head to the grocery store early in the morning this week, but I'll probably wait till around wednesday so they can restock some stuff now that the panicy types are hopefully done. But I'd rather stick to the small stores, I'd rather support those guys anyway.
Panicky types are a fixture until this is over. As more people will wake up and try to prepare as things get worse. Also some panicky types wont know when to stop, or will prep for the wrong reasons, trying to buy way more than needed and resell at ludicrous prices. If SHTF comes those people will be first to be targeted by the Golden Horde, noone likes a gouger.
One thing we really need is some new jars of Better than Bouillon, that stuff is liquid gold.
It's all gold when you are hungry. Last tip for you. Dont advertise your prep. Neighbours are friendly now, but if SHTF comes they will be at your door soon enough, and may be increasingly desperate.
I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
From what I'm aware even the closed borders are still open to deliveries and shipments. Food should continue to remain accessible through most of this disaster. The biggest risk is if food processing factories are forced to shut down and one would think it would be more effective to provide them with protective equipment so that they can continue to produce food (accepting that most should be pretty safe environments anyway in terms of germ control).
The highest risk is certainly at the supermarket level for staff - agian they could be provided basic training and PPE (gloves/mask*) to, again, provide a safe service.
If this had hit during harvest time it might be another matter, but we are leaving winter and going into spring. In theory this means food stocks, at least of many core produce, should be accessible.
*yes I'm aware it doesn't stop you breathing it in; but it does stop you rubbing your mouth with your gloved hand by accident
Rest of the world better hope us doesn't find vaccine first. Seeing trump tried to get german company to sell potential vaccine to us on us only terms...non us company better find out vaccine first.
Too bad likeiy no international law against that kind of hostile stunt
By paper goods I meant TP, paper towels, stuff like that. I really don't feel that food supply chain will be messed up, there might be small disruptions here and there and some items slow to restock, but once the lemmings get through their panic buying in the beginning and stores start to restock it will get better. I really think it will be fine as long as I don't see zombies in my yard.
tneva82 wrote: Rest of the world better hope us doesn't find vaccine first. Seeing trump tried to get german company to sell potential vaccine to us on us only terms...non us company better find out vaccine first.
Too bad likeiy no international law against that kind of hostile stunt
I imagine he'd rather play the US up as the saviour of the world.
Da Boss wrote: A decent mask is at least effective against droplets, which is better than nothing.
Which is funny, because our media is quick to point out that masks do not help against the virus. This is obvious lie, but I'm thinking why they would tell it. It is probably just ignorance, but desire to limit demand for masks might be also another cause, though it is very far fetched.
In the end, I believe this is Nurgle's blessing. We simply struggle to see the beauty and elegance of his gift to mankind.
I think what was actually being said is that fancy expensive masks are no more effective than surgical masks.
You don't need the ReBreathX5000 for £100 as it's no better than some £5 UwU face mask
ValentineGames wrote: I think what was actually being said is that fancy expensive masks are no more effective than surgical masks.
You don't need the ReBreathX5000 for £100 as it's no better than some £5 UwU face mask
I cant get a face mask, it is something I completely overlooked frankly. One of the thing prepper forums say is that you cant prep for everything, you will need to adapt when the crisis is specified. I wasn't out the gate fast enough, looking back it was because when I first saw the problem I was ahead of the curve but rained in. Every time I wanted to do a shop run it was raining very heavily, then floods came etc. By then it was too late. I should have mail ordered but didnt think of that.
So I don't have any face masks. But there is a gas mask in the garage, I cant credit myself with foresight in any way, its my dads old service one from the 80's. I know nothing about gas masks, excerpt that the British one was quality stuff, objectively the best NBC protection gear at the time, by a significant margin. Though I only have the mask, not a noddy suit, and no. I wouldn't be wearing a noddy suit anyway.
RiTides wrote: I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
Rationally you're right,t but it's like a run on the bank. As soon as some people start hoarding everyone else has to go out and buy just to make sure they get something.
Da Boss wrote: Hmmm. Masks do not completely stop the virus, I think is more accurate. But if masks do not help, then why do doctors wear them?
Surgical masks don't stop the virus. You need the N95 (if I recall right!) for that, and those count as respirators not masks and need to be individually fitted. Smog masks are completely useless.
However, the point being made is that it's the people that suspect they might be sick should wear the mask to stop their cough/sneezes going everywhere on healthy people, as this is much better way to stop spread than wearing a mask, but ending up with infected spittle all over your clothes for example.
Surgical masks are designed to prevent droplets and stuff from falling into patients when the Dr has to open you up.
They are ineffective against stuff coming into your body. So wearing one while you are sick is useful against the spread, but little else.
The respirator masks that filter out microscopic particles help one from getting sick by breathing in the virus. But there is a shortage for these, and I’d suggest that unless you are in a very high risk category, or work in a hospital, you don’t really need a mask.
People panic buying stuff is what’s going to disrupt supply chains and create shortages. Slight modifications in your behaviour is all that’s required for one to limit their exposure.
We don’t need to be emptying out the flu medication aisles (yep, the store this morning was devoid of any, despite on 29 cases in Alberta), as when some is actually sick and needs medication, it’s not there for them.
Hoarding isn’t going to help anyone survive a viral outbreak.
I work at a Walmart, and we've been hit pretty hard lately. No toilet paper to be had, no paper towels either, and a lot of certain kinds of food are gone too (cereal is the one I noticed immediately). I already have a decent supply of TP and paper towels at home, so no worries there, and since my place of work sells food it's unlikely to be shut down unless employees start being confirmed to have the virus, so hopefully (fingers crossed) I shouldn't have to worry about losing employment. I'm not too worried about getting sick either; my immune system is pretty robust as I rarely get even mildly sick despite close contact with the public on a regular basis.
I'm not going to panic and stock up on stuff; I expect things to settle down once the panicky people get what they want and the shelves will be restocked. I'm still taking basic precautions like more frequent hand washing and use of sanitizer, but I'm a fairly hygienic person anyway. If something weird happens and I do end up quarantined, I can probably use my paid time off to cover my lost hours if necessary (for a couple of weeks anyways) and I've got plenty of hobby stuff I can do to keep boredom at bay. This whole thing will blow over soon enough and we'll all have some interesting stories to tell our grandchildren.
TL;DR: Society is panicking, but ZergSmasher is not.
RiTides wrote: I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
Rationally you're right,t but it's like a run on the bank. As soon as some people start hoarding everyone else has to go out and buy just to make sure they get something.
RiTides wrote: I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
Rationally you're right,t but it's like a run on the bank. As soon as some people start hoarding everyone else has to go out and buy just to make sure they get something.
If lockdown happens you may have to eat those words. There will be little else to eat.
Da Boss wrote: A decent mask is at least effective against droplets, which is better than nothing.
Which is funny, because our media is quick to point out that masks do not help against the virus. This is obvious lie, but I'm thinking why they would tell it. It is probably just ignorance, but desire to limit demand for masks might be also another cause, though it is very far fetched.
In the end, I believe this is Nurgle's blessing. We simply struggle to see the beauty and elegance of his gift to mankind.
Think of it this way: the viewpoint must be presented in black or white. There can be no nuance in the presentation, no partials. They must be either said to work or not to work.
If I have to go out in peak virus for any reason, I hope to have this ready. The mask is unused so should be ok, but I have no ability to change the filters, no I don;t want to overuse it early. The rubber might have decayed, but that shouldn't make a lot of difference. I am not trying to stop poison gas. My beard will have to go though if I wear it.
The thing with them is that if you are going to get infected with a virus, it will be probably through different means. Yet, face masks are effective at what they are designed to do that is to prevent droplets from moving in and out of a mask. Filters work in both directions. These masks were used since forever and nobody questioned their effectiveness, so nothing changes now. A mask would save you if infected person sneezes and you inhale some of those droplets who are in the air. Mask would prevent them from reaching you in general. That is limited protection and virus is transmitted more from touching stuff. This is why everyone recommends washing your hands frequently.
When? The classic 'KCaCO' period in the UK didn't really do that well in terms on keeping calm and carrying on. WWII saw rationing as a specific response to panic buying and the blitz brought a leap in rape, murder, robbery, and burlgary.
It's a thing to aim for, but we should expect, and be entirely prepared for, people to behave unpredictably and selfishly, and appealing to a misleading social memory doesn't get us very far, I don't think.
It was meant to be a light hearted quip about mindest, not an actual response plan.
The key thing to remember if you do chose to wear a mask (and have access to them) is that you need to treat the outside of them as contaminated
so every time you touch it you need to wash your hands, dispose of it once your back home (or just outside).
if your a man (or an unlucky woman) shave, they won't seal well at all if you've got a beard
the more often you reuse it the more likely you'll transfer virus from the outside of it to the inside where you'll end up breathing it in (the moisture in your breath will help keep the virus alive on a mask longer than it would normally last on a soft or hard surface)
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: The key thing to remember if you do chose to wear a mask (and have access to them) is that you need to treat the outside of them as contaminated
so every time you touch it you need to wash your hands, dispose of it once your back home (or just outside).
if your a man (or an unlucky woman) shave, they won't seal well at all if you've got a beard
the more often you reuse it the more likely you'll transfer virus from the outside of it to the inside where you'll end up breathing it in (the moisture in your breath will help keep the virus alive on a mask longer than it would normally last on a soft or hard surface)
Ok. Say I got a mask but could only get one, not unlikely. Could I soak it in bleach or disinfectant overnight and reuse?
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: are you seriously considering walking about with an S10 on your face? just dont.
Yes. But will wait until emergencies and in peak virus. I will need it most then and also wont look so stupid.
That is unless you can see a downside to it other than -5 Cha? If so, do tell.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: The key thing to remember if you do chose to wear a mask (and have access to them) is that you need to treat the outside of them as contaminated
so every time you touch it you need to wash your hands, dispose of it once your back home (or just outside).
if your a man (or an unlucky woman) shave, they won't seal well at all if you've got a beard
the more often you reuse it the more likely you'll transfer virus from the outside of it to the inside where you'll end up breathing it in (the moisture in your breath will help keep the virus alive on a mask longer than it would normally last on a soft or hard surface)
Ok. Say I got a mask but could only get one, not unlikely. Could I soak it in bleach or disinfectant overnight and reuse?
I would not re-use the mask. If you don't know that you will be encountering an infected person, you probably don't need one. Just maintain distance and you should be fine.
Well, that's the thing- and I could be wrong here. If I am by all means correct me, I am no epidemiologist or medical personnel. From what I've read, the virus has a 2 week incubation period, and gears up slowly, with symptoms virtually identical to allergies or the flu in its early stages. You pass coughing people all the time. By the time you slap on that S10, you've probably already been exposed. This thing's going to get everywhere.
Probably the wisest thing to do is to restrict your own exposure as much as possible- don't stockpile for 3 months, but if you can swing it, go to the store less. Half as many trips, means you have half as many chances to catch Corona.
While you're out in public, take all the standard precautions, and be actively on the lookout for and then avoid sick folk.
Get tested if you think you're getting sick- ideally get a diagnosis from an e-doctor.
I don't think we're going to know when it's at its peak spread until it has come and gone.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: I guarantee that you could walk around in an S10 all day and you'll still get the virus, aswell as looking like an absolute tube.
You are saying the S10 doesnt work? I am not a fool, even if I will look a fool. If I do this I will still wash hands, avoid direct contact etc.
Gitzbitah wrote: Well, that's the thing- and I could be wrong here. If I am by all means correct me, I am no epidemiologist or medical personnel. From what I've read, the virus has a 2 week incubation period, and gears up slowly, with symptoms virtually identical to allergies or the flu in its early stages.
I am not a doctor either, but the basic medical knowledge has been simplified so the common man can understand it, and the above is beleived to be true.
You pass coughing people all the time. By the time you slap on that S10, you've probably already been exposed. This thing's going to get everywhere.
Yes and do. Cases and deaths are about doubling every day, and an estimated 10x number of known cases is the real total of infected, though that is a guess. Fro the next few days it should be moderately safe to go shopping, but each new day has a higher risk than the day before. Yes I might have already been exposed, but until I know this is true, I must act as if I have not and duck dodge and dive.
Probably the wisest thing to do is to restrict your own exposure as much as possible- don't stockpile for 3 months, but if you can swing it, go to the store less. Half as many trips, means you have half as many chances to catch Corona.
You have it half right. Let is assume I have a 1% risk going out, and next week its 2% etc (random innaccurate figures used for example). If I buy additional stores now at 1% risk and don't have to go out for more shopping for three months, I avoid rolling bad outcome dice.
Second social avoidance is easier said that done. 'A wild Cougher suddenly appears', not a big reality now, but later likely so. There more people get infected the more douches get infected who don't care about anyone else.
Most of all you cant avoid all crowds. If you have to queue for food, not an unlikely scenario under lockdown, you will run additional risk of exposure. Next week I have an unavoidable train journey, and I cannot find any way to put that off, believe me I have tried. Yes I want a mask for that journey, because trains are crowded, the keep 3 metres away is an impossible dream. I want a mask by the time I make this trip. I should not need to make another for the expected four months of preferred isolation.
Mark Colville shut down MCDM play videos, I like what he said the way he said it and agree completely. "When dealing with exponential growth the right time to act is when it seems too early".
If you're going to wear a facemask, it has to have a visor otherwise it's pointless. I bought a couple of these, they are similar to what I used to have to wear when working with fiberglass...except, you know..not as good and not air supplied. They're pretty good to breathe in, which is great because believe me wearing a full face mask for even a couple of hours gets nasty. The quality isn't spectacular, I'd rate it as good. More than good enough for the purposes of preventing virus infection.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: you'd have to live in it, which unless you're some sort of zen master, will be impossible.
I can use it for a critical journey and not afterwards.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: haha, ok, you wear that mask for your train journey, and let me know how it was afterwards..
I'm assuming from how youre talking that you've never actually worn it, as in were in the forces at all?
No I am not, but I know plenty of people who were. Was a service brat long ago. No, they are not nice to wear, but people did if they had to. I intend to shave, man up and wear it as long as I need to. I don't have spare filters so I will save it for critical uses. Ideally I want to get a surgical mask before I make my journey on the 19th, but if I have to use an S10, I will do so.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: you should make sure it has a tin foil head covering too, for maximum effectiveness.
Sounds like you are being a troll. Was it worthless trying to ask you for advice?
Let me get this straight. You are a current or ex-serviceman right. So was my father. He is elderly, bedbound and right now I am serving as his carer. So I really do not want to get COVID-19, and if I have to jump through hoops not to, I will do so. No matter how stupid I look. Got it?
The journey to London later this week is something I would like to avoid, but it cannot be put off. I have to get to London deal with official business, jumping through hoops for an annual safety check, and get fething home without being infected. Anything that increases the % of doing that I will do.
So if you have anything relevant to add other than snarky comments please do contribute to the thread.
My father was issued with the mask but never had to use it. Yes he had some training, long ago.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: you should make sure it has a tin foil head covering too, for maximum effectiveness.
It's not crazy to buy a mask. I haven't worn mine yet, but it's there if I need it.
Automatically Appended Next Post: @ Orlanth if you're looking for something that will work, the one I bought will, and it isn't expensive. Comes with filter cartridges. Seller is Australian but you should be able to get the same thing on ebay.uk.
Kilkrazy wrote: You need an N95 standard mask which is correctly fitted, and eye protection.
I definitely wouldn't trust an N95 to do anything Frankly precisely because they never fit, do not seal, and do not have secure fastners. For any kind of respirator to work effectively you need to create a seal, which is why if you turned up to work in an an environment in which isocyanates/ polyvinyls were being sprayed in goggles and an N95 you'd be asked to leave and told to come back when you have something that works. I know that vapors aren't analogous to particles, but if you don't have a tight seal, you might as well not be wearing anything at all regardless of what you're trying to keep out.
Kilkrazy wrote: You need an N95 standard mask which is correctly fitted, and eye protection.
I am seeing lots of masks.
Why N95?
Also why eye protection?
Educate me please.
@ Orlanth I almost never do this, but please ignore anyone telling you an N95 is going to insulate you. It's bs. That's why doctors using them keep getting infected. Take it from someone who used to work with really dangerous gak; if you don't have a seal, you don't have mask. End of.
OK, tell me more. Are there and dox on the 3M 6000?
I will buy if it checks out. I would like to order from ebay asap because I must travel Thursday evening. It will take a late train, less crowded.
I definitely wouldn't trust an N95 to do anything Frankly precisely because they never fit, do not seal, and do not have secure fastners. For any kind of respirator to work effectively you need to create a seal, which is why if you turned up to work in an an environment in which isocyanates/ polyvinyls were being sprayed in goggles and an N95 you'd be asked to leave and told to come back when you have something that works. I know that vapors aren't analogous to particles, but if you don't have a tight seal, you might as well not be wearing anything at all regardless of what you're trying to keep out.
Do I need a HEPA filter to keep out a virus? Or am I keeping out droplets of moisture viruses travel in?
Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
Orlanth wrote: OK, tell me more. Are there and dox on the 3M 6000?
I will buy if it checks out. I would like to order from ebay asap because I must travel Thursday evening. It will take a late train, less crowded.
I definitely wouldn't trust an N95 to do anything Frankly precisely because they never fit, do not seal, and do not have secure fastners. For any kind of respirator to work effectively you need to create a seal, which is why if you turned up to work in an an environment in which isocyanates/ polyvinyls were being sprayed in goggles and an N95 you'd be asked to leave and told to come back when you have something that works. I know that vapors aren't analogous to particles, but if you don't have a tight seal, you might as well not be wearing anything at all regardless of what you're trying to keep out.
Do I need a HEPA filter to keep out a virus? Or am I keeping out droplets of moisture viruses travel in?
You're just keeping out moisture droplets, which are airborne to an extent. I'm not a virologist, so I can't comment on how often you would need to change the cartridges, or how long the virus can live in them. But I can guarantee you that an Organic vapour cartridge will screen out airborne moisture 100%, and I can confirm the mask I bought is decent quality, and the seal is excellent.
The main thing you want to do is fit it so the mask is as tight as you can stand. If the rubber seal isn't expanding and contracting with your breathing, it isn't tight enough.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
Because they're what's sometimes wonderfully graphically referred to as a "soft entrance." Basically most pathogens can gain access to your body via any moist part. While this is usually the mucus membranes in and around the respiratory system, your eyes are fair game too.
Covid isn't considered to be particularly easily transmissible via the eyes, but is does appear to be considered possible.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
I used to make molds in air-supplied respirators. If you fall over and break your neck wearing a simple full face respirator then nature has selected you for the Darwin award.
Ok, I did some searches and I bought a 3M 6000 series mask, with visor.
Prepared for -4 Cha on my journey to London and back.
Did this mainly because I don't know where the S6/S10 is and might not find it in time.
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godardc wrote: The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
If I don't buy the mask and do get symptomic sometime in the next three weeks I will not be able to live with myself. I live in an area with no recorded cases, yet, moving to an area with relatively many. Yes, psychology is a factor.
Also while mask wearing is considered unnecessary, carers are one of the exceptions.
Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’
Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).
If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re showing symptoms of coronavirus, or have been diagnosed, wearing a mask can also protect others. So masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients and are also recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill – ideally both the patient and carer should have a mask.
However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus so there is no need to bulk-buy a huge supply.
Orlanth wrote: Ok, I did some searches and I bought a 3M 6000 series mask, with visor.
Prepared for -4 Cha on my journey to London and back.
Did this mainly because I don't know where the S6/S10 is and might not find it in time.
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godardc wrote: The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
If I don't buy the mask and do get symptomic sometime in the next three weeks I will not be able to live with myself. I live in an area with no recorded cases, yet, moving to an area with relatively many. Yes, psychology is a factor.
Just make sure it comes with the cartridges. And what you're doing isn't unreasonable, because you're taking care of someone who is very vulnerable to this type of infection.
Future War Cultist wrote: My throat has been odd all day today. Not raw and dry, but claggy, like I’ve got something stuck in it. Wondering if I need to do something.
RiTides wrote: I disagree - everyone rushing out to buy months worth of food would be a huge mistake, imo. The coronavirus will not disrupt food chains, but panic buying might. Just act reasonably, and take reasonable precautions. Panic is the absolute worst thing to do - and that includes buying habits.
Rationally you're right,t but it's like a run on the bank. As soon as some people start hoarding everyone else has to go out and buy just to make sure they get something.
Actually, if some people hoard, it's mostly irrelevant. The issues only come from Lots of people doing so, as being very irresponsibly advocated for in this thread by some, imo.
There are lots of public health recommendations to follow right now, and none of them are recommending buying months worth of food. Listen to the experts, and act reasonably, not based on irrational panic.
Future War Cultist wrote: Actually yes. Hay fever hits me like a tonne of bricks. Oh, and yesterday I was cleaning the place so I’ve been exposed to dust.
Meh be cautious, follow the instructions provided for suspected cases .
Also Pollen allergies annoying as hell,feel ya There.
Future War Cultist wrote: Actually yes. Hay fever hits me like a tonne of bricks. Oh, and yesterday I was cleaning the place so I’ve been exposed to dust.
Hits me too - actually found a useful tip form another sufferer which was to combine the nasal sprays with the tablets. I'd never really found either one on their own (over the years) did much for me, but the combined effect was far more effective. I still can't go running through super long grass or reedbeds during the height of the season; but the combined use at least took a considerable edge off for me. I wasn't even using anything fancy just the standard tablets and spray from Boots
Future War Cultist wrote: Actually yes. Hay fever hits me like a tonne of bricks. Oh, and yesterday I was cleaning the place so I’ve been exposed to dust.
Hits me too - actually found a useful tip form another sufferer which was to combine the nasal sprays with the tablets. I'd never really found either one on their own (over the years) did much for me, but the combined effect was far more effective. I still can't go running through super long grass or reedbeds during the height of the season; but the combined use at least took a considerable edge off for me. I wasn't even using anything fancy just the standard tablets and spray from Boots
Lucky , i get nosebleeding from them.
Worst of it, i am allergic to nigh anything pollen and the extremely mild "Winter" we had isn't helping....
2x everything cartridge wise, so no. But what I have got should take me there and home. When I am back I can order more cartridges prior to peak virus.
And what you're doing isn't unreasonable, because you're taking care of someone who is very vulnerable to this type of infection.
Thank you for the affirmation. Though I do not want to uptalk myself. I am no caring angel, my father has nurses and they are regularly tested at this time. I am disabled myself, but got a good Con stat and my particular disability doesn't put me in a high risk category. I shrug of infection easily, and to be honest so did my dad, but not anymore. Normally keep him company and come and go, I go up to visit him very frequently stay a while then return home.. Except I had to make a choice a few weeks ago: Stay or go. I chose to stay with him for the duration. When here I make the tea and I do wipe bottoms and deal with bedbound care stuff when needed, but his primary care is provided by the NHS, and the service here is very good.
I have a flat near London, and it's Council annual gas safety check time. It's the law, so it must be done. So I will go back home, let the gas man in, see what else needs to be done around the flat and then travel back the following evening, or after the weekend. Looks like I will be at my fathers home for the duration if I can help it. Council are Ok with this as it counts as isolation, not property abandonment, but the gas check cannot be waived as it potentially effects the whole block. I can understand that.
Its odd that a safety check is causing me to take a relatively high risk journey, but those are the cards dealt.
Future War Cultist wrote: My throat has been odd all day today. Not raw and dry, but claggy, like I’ve got something stuck in it. Wondering if I need to do something.
Could be psychosomatic. I was in the supermarket and saw the empty shelves where the hand sanitiser was. This was the first time I had actually seen this for myself. I thought of the reality of the virus and felt a cough coming on. I don't have a cough, I just felt like coughing right then. This was the supermarket where I did most of my prepping in late 2018 through to summer 2019. So to be there with signs of a crisis was rather eerie.
Future War Cultist wrote: Actually yes. Hay fever hits me like a tonne of bricks. Oh, and yesterday I was cleaning the place so I’ve been exposed to dust.
Some good news for you. I used to really suffer from hay fever, it was the only recurring problem in my youth. I would wake up with my inflamed eyelids welded shut by sticky 'resin'. In my teenage years it was bad. By my early twenties I had some symptoms for a few days at the beginning of summer, by the time I was thirty I might get it for a day or two, and then only mildly. I long ceased taking any medication for it because my symptoms have lessened over time.
Point is, it is an illness that can lessen with age, YMMV but there is hope that in a decades time hay fever isn't a problem for you anymore. We can only hope.
Meanwhile, sympathies, I know it can be really unpleasant.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
or collapse from heat exhaustion...
But if nothing else the thought of someone sat chilling on a train wearing a military respirator designed for a chemical warfare environment has made me laugh today.
Actually, a face mask helps in the sense that it keeps you from touching your face with your fingers. A study showed that we touch our faces about once every three minutes (23 times per hour). Of course, that only means you can wear a scarf and sunglasses for the same protection.
IMO, Gloves are useful when you're out in public and touching public surfaces, such as door handles. You can stay distant from other people, but you don't know when that door handle was last touched or by whom.
In California, we're not in just an earthquake zone, but areas prone to wild fires. Earthquakes break gas lines and water lines, increasing the chance of fires, and reducing water pressure resulting in no water for fire engines to put out fires. Goggles, face masks, gloves (and smoke alarms) provide protection against smoke and smoke particulates in a burning area. (Keep a set next to the bed!)
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
or collapse from heat exhaustion...
But if nothing else the thought of someone sat chilling on a train wearing a military respirator designed for a chemical warfare environment has made me laugh today.
Enjoy. Soldiers have a grim sense of humour granted. If you see me on a train with a mask on Thursaday evening, come say hello and have a good laugh at my expense.
It will keep in mind the risk of neck injury if I fall forwards wearing a hard face protrusion. Don't think that is Darwin award material though, just bad luck. If I did parkour with one on, maybe.
I am not a serviceman, but that doesnt mean I am a snowflake. I will also be travelling in the evening and no yomping. From what I remember from my time in Rhiendahlen and talking to soldiers wearing NBC reduce % of combat effectiveness. From top of head in temperate conditions its about 60% effectiveness, NBC in the jungle is under 5% effectiveness. Now this is with full noddy suit. I will only have a mask at a cool time of year at a cool time of day.
I could ask my father but he has little to add, only that I must shave to wear a mask effectively. He wouldn't know any more than that because he was RAF, and not a Rock Ape, so only had minimal training.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
or collapse from heat exhaustion...
But if nothing else the thought of someone sat chilling on a train wearing a military respirator designed for a chemical warfare environment has made me laugh today.
My parents are currently stuck in Poland. They have sealed the borders and anyone coming through from the outside. Likewis they have closed all non essential things, shools, etc. Even the church has suspended mass( as its predominately old people who go..). Apparently its pretty much post apocalyptic martial law type situation on the streets. everythings closed..
Has it worked? looking at the number of cases and the sow growth I guess so but not sure if it will truly work. At least they are trying to protect their people I guess?? Effective or not.. When a government states
"well a bunch of you old people will die.. Ohh wel... its tough... ohh wel… Nope.. not even going to try and make a difference".. Do we even need governments if they just take life times worth of taxes and then leave us to die once we retire and don't pay anymore? Whats the government for if its not to enforce rules and protect its people ?
Im really reaaaalllllyyyyy surprised how the Uk public seems to not give a flying monkey about either Covid or its elderly population. The current state of affairs politically makes a lot more sense now..
Anyway this is a long interview JRE did with someone who worked for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and currently Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP).
In short, according to him if we all had carbon masks and wore gloves/did all the hand washing etc.. we could sort of contain it. However as its an influenza virus and its spread it seems not a lot that can be done as we all have to breathe. Worth a listen form the horses mouth so to speak.
As an aside, the worry is that Im reading conflicting information regarding aftercare.. as in most people will get mild symptoms but apparently it really hits your lungs and can leave damaged lungs after without prior conditions which is scary if true but we just don't seem to know for sure. And different countries "experts" seem to be saying different things which is very troubling..
Anyone who tells you nbc gear doesn't reduce combat effectiveness, or just effectiveness in general, is talking absolute bonk. You're effectively wearing a sauna suit, your face will be sweating like you've never sweat before, you'll have no dexterity due to your condom gloves, your breathing is harder, your peripheral vision is non existant, and you can't aim a rifle properly due to the canisters stuck out the side of your face. That's why it's no longer 'survive to fight' it's just 'survive'
Now I'm not an infanteer either, I'm only raf too, but I've done my fair share of CBRN EOD training, spending long periods suited up and just trying to operate.. It sucks.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
I do agree with you (until yesterday I was still going out, kissing friends / handshaking, etc) but it doesn't hurt to get ready, just in case. The opposite can't be stuff... The poor guy takes care of his father, I totally encourage him to get his mask, even if it doesn't work, at least he would have done everything possible to avoid it.
To be honest he’s likely to break his own neck,falling over trying to go to work in respirator. But it’s free country.
or collapse from heat exhaustion...
But if nothing else the thought of someone sat chilling on a train wearing a military respirator designed for a chemical warfare environment has made me laugh today.
Tell them not to be careless with superglue next time.
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: Anyone who tells you nbc gear doesn't reduce combat effectiveness, or just effectiveness in general, is talking absolute bonk.
Seems like they weren't not talking absolute bonk then.
Governor has just decreed that all restaurants have to shut down their dining rooms, and no one allowed in bars. You can still do take out and get your McDonalds from the drive thru though
You can't get the same virus twice, well, you can but you are immune to it, thats how viruses work....you could get a different strain, but not the exact same one.
Thats absolutely not true. Just because you survive a disease once doesn't necessarily mean you are immune to it, virus or not. It just means you will have some level of resistance to it. Weather that is enough to be immune to it is dependent on many variables.
We've already had a few people come down with this very virus twice, so we know it can happen.
Patently false. When you defeat a virus you develop antigens, these stay in your body....usually forever, but in some rare instances its a matter of years, not days, not months...years. This is the whole reason vaccines work. They inject you with an inoculated version of the virus, your body fights it off an now you are protected. Now there are certain individuals whose bodies are unable to hold on to those antigens for very long, but they are few and far between, these are usually people with very compromised immune systems for one reason or another . Viruses can also mutate, but then its not the same virus, its a different strain. A normally healthy human will not get the same virus twice.
There were several healthy people who came down with the same strain twice in China. Its not a 100% thing, same with Vaccines. You can absolutely come down with the same virus twice even with a healthy immune system, its all about your specific situation. Vaccines do work on the principle of antigens sticking around for a long time, but its not absolute or foolproof. Vaccines do fail, not all antigens are permanent, etc...
Again, people have already caught Coronavirus twice and its not a different strain.
You can't get the same virus twice, well, you can but you are immune to it, thats how viruses work....you could get a different strain, but not the exact same one.
Thats absolutely not true. Just because you survive a disease once doesn't necessarily mean you are immune to it, virus or not. It just means you will have some level of resistance to it. Weather that is enough to be immune to it is dependent on many variables.
We've already had a few people come down with this very virus twice, so we know it can happen.
Patently false. When you defeat a virus you develop antigens, these stay in your body....usually forever, but in some rare instances its a matter of years, not days, not months...years. This is the whole reason vaccines work. They inject you with an inoculated version of the virus, your body fights it off an now you are protected. Now there are certain individuals whose bodies are unable to hold on to those antigens for very long, but they are few and far between, these are usually people with very compromised immune systems for one reason or another . Viruses can also mutate, but then its not the same virus, its a different strain. A normally healthy human will not get the same virus twice.
There were several healthy people who came down with the same strain twice in China. Its not a 100% thing, same with Vaccines. You can absolutely come down with the same virus twice even with a healthy immune system, its all about your specific situation. Vaccines do work on the principle of antigens sticking around for a long time, but its not absolute or foolproof. Vaccines do fail, not all antigens are permanent, etc...
Again, people have already caught Coronavirus twice and its not a different strain.
Tell them not to be careless with superglue next time.
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: Anyone who tells you nbc gear doesn't reduce combat effectiveness, or just effectiveness in general, is talking absolute bonk.
Seems like they weren't not talking absolute bonk then.
In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
however if you want a laugh you might try blowing out those old filters into a pals t shirt or a pillow, if youre lucky there might be some leftover CS gas particles in there..
Roberts84 wrote: The people being reinfected are being reinfected with a different strain of the virus I believe.
I know that was speculated on, but I haven't seen a source. If you have, then by all means, share with the class.
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
I'm sure the S10 would be fine, and in fact, the only real mistake would be taking it off almost at all until this has blown over. I mean, short of sleeping and eating, I can't think of any reason to take it off. And even then, is sleeping with it off really safe? The virus doesn't take breaks.
Of course, like all conscientious preppers, I pray I turn out to be wrong, but for now, I urge utmost caution.
In unrelated news, dow futures have plummeted again overnight, so I assume we can look forward to yet another enormous plummet in the morning. After cutting the rate to near zero and throwing 1.5 trillion at bankers (in return for a tiny blip on the way down), I'm not sure what other shenanigans are left to arrest this free-fall.
Roberts84 wrote: The people being reinfected are being reinfected with a different strain of the virus I believe.
I know that was speculated on, but I haven't seen a source. If you have, then by all means, share with the class.
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
I'm sure the S10 would be fine, and in fact, the only real mistake would be taking it off almost at all until this has blown over. I mean, short of sleeping and eating, I can't think of any reason to take it off. And even then, is sleeping with it off really safe? The virus doesn't take breaks.
Of course, like all conscientious preppers, I pray I turn out to be wrong, but for now, I urge utmost caution.
There are about 10 strains of known coronavirus already known before this outbreak, could it be one of them. Or is it a direct strain of covid 19 ?
Tell them not to be careless with superglue next time.
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: Anyone who tells you nbc gear doesn't reduce combat effectiveness, or just effectiveness in general, is talking absolute bonk.
Seems like they weren't not talking absolute bonk then.
In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
however if you want a laugh you might try blowing out those old filters into a pals t shirt or a pillow, if youre lucky there might be some leftover CS gas particles in there..
Looks like you solved it. I'll have to remember this next time I want to enter my front door in a bus.
The virus isn't airborne. It's not like myxomatosis. It's carried in water molecules over short distances, which are many microns larger than the virus itself.
darkness screamer wrote: Just reading through this thread and there are some real doom and gloom freaks on here. The world is not coming to and end just because bog paper is short supply and you don’t need a respirator to go to work. I played rugby this morning with about 300 people,we then drank pints,eat food and congregated together and the world kept turning.
It will still be there tomorrow morning and long after that. Yes I worry about the elderly etc but the vast majority will be fine. I have two friends who have the virus now and it’s a mild temp and a cough,nothing more.
1) You may be unlikely to have serious symptoms if you contract the disease, but you are then likely to infect more people, including people in a vulnerable group.
2) The virus is reasonably mild in many people, including some cases with no symptoms at all, but there appears to be specific genetic vulnerabilities that lead to extreme reactions, including death in ~3% of women and ~4.5% of men. As such, personal observation that people you know with corona didn't suffer symptoms worse than a flu is missing the nature of the problem quite badly.
In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
however if you want a laugh you might try blowing out those old filters into a pals t shirt or a pillow, if youre lucky there might be some leftover CS gas particles in there..
Looks like you solved it. I'll have to remember this next time I want to enter my front door in a bus.
The virus isn't airborne. It's not like myxomatosis. It's carried in water molecules over short distances, which are many microns larger than the virus itself.
The S10 is a rated NBC mask, the 'B' must stand for something then, it usually does.
However I get the point, it might not be a perfect defence, but it looks like a reasonable one, and helpful if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
however if you want a laugh you might try blowing out those old filters into a pals t shirt or a pillow, if youre lucky there might be some leftover CS gas particles in there..
Looks like you solved it. I'll have to remember this next time I want to enter my front door in a bus.
The virus isn't airborne. It's not like myxomatosis. It's carried in water molecules over short distances, which are many microns larger than the virus itself.
The S10 is a rated NBC mask, the 'B' must stand for something then, it usually does.
However I get the point, it might not be a perfect defence, but it looks like a reasonable one, and helpful if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
Indeed, usually things like anthrax, botulism, produced by larger bacterial cells.
With the whole being reinfected thing.
Scientists being interviewed on the news are saying it’s one strain not multiple, and that they believe you can’t be reinfected by it much like usual flu etc illnesses..
It was BBC. Only places I’ve seen about reinfection are smaller offshoot news places and blogs and all this. Click bait news types etc..
(Though big isn’t always more believable).
But one theory is that the early positive tests were false, particularly the man on the cruise ship (who showed no symptoms the first time, just that he had it) and the second test, done more carefully and not rushed to get people checked etc, was the actual positive (and again with him, that’s when he showed actual symptoms).
Automatically Appended Next Post: In other news.
My parents have been on holiday in Florida (for spring training and Indy car. All cancelled, so sucked for them in that sense anyway - glad I ended up skipping this years trip due to work..).
Semi stuck due to flight cancellations and ban.
Having to get an internal flight up to Atlanta to get a flight back to the UK.
And doing it today rather than the original scheduled flights for Thursday..
Anyone know whether the test used is ELISA (for antibodies) or PCR (for viral DNA/RNA)?
I used to make my own ELISA for liver fluke back in the day. They often give false positives and false negatives when you are first callibrating them. And even after, between 1 in a 100 and 1 in 20 depending on the test can give false positives pretty easily, nothing to do with user error.
PCR I am not so sure about the sensitivity and specificity of the test.
I have taken some of orlanths advice and have begun stocking up a bit, not TP essential food, I work in the frontline I.ean acute medical admissions ward and already have the 1st cases in . I am resigned to contracting as my exposure will be huge.
In all seriousness, after doing a little digging, I doubt that the filters on that S10 will be the correct type to filter out a virus of this type. those filters are designed for chemical warfare, where the particulate being filtered will be much larger than this virus. you'd be better off just being as cautious as possible if youre worried..just sit away from folks, try not to touch things etc.
however if you want a laugh you might try blowing out those old filters into a pals t shirt or a pillow, if youre lucky there might be some leftover CS gas particles in there..
Looks like you solved it. I'll have to remember this next time I want to enter my front door in a bus.
The virus isn't airborne. It's not like myxomatosis. It's carried in water molecules over short distances, which are many microns larger than the virus itself.
The S10 is a rated NBC mask, the 'B' must stand for something then, it usually does.
However I get the point, it might not be a perfect defence, but it looks like a reasonable one, and helpful if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
There's also a lot to be said for protecting yourself from other nasties this time around. After all, you don't want a strained immune system if you can possibly avoid it.
Marxist artist wrote: I have taken some of orlanths advice and have begun stocking up a bit, not TP essential food, I work in the frontline I.ean acute medical admissions ward and already have the 1st cases in . I am resigned to contracting as my exposure will be huge.
Not going thru everything but I have seen several different information on several different medias now and stuff is getting to be mixed up
there are different strains of Cov19, this is how they can tell apart were people got the virus as those infected directly in China have a different one than those infected in Italy which is different from the one in Germany
But it is still the same Virus, with the same symptoms.
Some are claiming that there are 2 strains, a light version and the heavy version and that you cannot get the one after you got the other
Which is a rumour no one confirmed yet and all experts also have told that they don't know if you are immune afterwards or not and at the moment it is more likely that people can get the same infection twice
Problem in general is that the infection takes 10 days until symptoms get heavy
So people showing only light symptoms, like with a flu, think it is getting better after a week and start acting normal (and doing heavy work or sports) which leads to pneumonia that needs medical treatment (the same if you already had the flu or some other illness that effects the lunge)
which is also a reason why we have light lock down, not only to slow down but also that those who might have it but don't show symptoms stay calm, preventing it from getting heavy
Depends on the gas, but thing with gases is that you can filter them out by getting a chemical reaction with the filter material preventing it from getting further
so something build to protect from a gas does not necessarily filter the air from small molecules too
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Da Boss wrote: Anyone know whether the test used is ELISA (for antibodies) or PCR (for viral DNA/RNA)?
Thanks Kodos, that is interesting. I am not as familiar with PCR, only done it once or twice. Likely it can also give false positives though, like any chemical test.
Marxist artist wrote: I have taken some of orlanths advice and have begun stocking up a bit, not TP essential food, I work in the frontline I.ean acute medical admissions ward and already have the 1st cases in . I am resigned to contracting as my exposure will be huge.
Ironic that if you are young and healthy and not in contact with elderly getting COVID-19 now is, how do I say this - a 'good idea'. Resources are available to treat you, you will likely get individual care prior to overstretch and once you have passed Go and got 200 antibodies life will be so much easier.
And thanks for the mention about taking the stocking up advice. Make the effort worth it to know it is helping people.
Of course, these masks are for single use only. I thought it was pretty obvious, but we had cases where our medical personal reuse single use suits to isolate individual many times. Sigh. Use your equipment for what it is meant and do not complain that it is not effective when you misuse it.
As for brighter news, in hearth of Lithuania today we had divine signs manifesting. Is it an omen? A hope? What Gods are telling us?
Marxist artist wrote: I have taken some of orlanths advice and have begun stocking up a bit, not TP essential food, I work in the frontline I.ean acute medical admissions ward and already have the 1st cases in . I am resigned to contracting as my exposure will be huge.
Ironic that if you are young and healthy and not in contact with elderly getting COVID-19 now is, how do I say this - a 'good idea'. Resources are available to treat you, you will likely get individual care prior to overstretch and once you have passed Go and got 200 antibodies life will be so much easier.
As long as you don't end up being one of the unlucky "young, healthy" ones who just gets rolled over by it. As it happens, it's not just bad news for the over-60's
I work in a petri dish.
Not frontline medical work, but another sort of venue that deals with a lot of sick people, and the government is loathe to shut down. One of those playing pieces in the big picture game therory that can be considered important enough to keep in play for as long as possible, but also individually expendable. - "For the greater good", essentially. With all that, I'm somewhat resigned to getting it as well. I just hope I don't end up passing it to my 75-yo father who has a list of ailments as long as your arm, as my wife and I are in a bit of a similar situation to Orlanth as his primary carers...
So I kind of need to hope to not get infected somehow, and hope for the vaccine down the road, or it's pretty much game over for him.
Greece: 4 dead 331 cases. The lock down intensifies with charges pressed against shop owners who were open and additional measures on entrances to supermarkets.
And personal peeve of mine: the #$%&&* Church still hasn't abided by the rules of the lockdown, with one of the most influential Bishops publishing an open letter about how faith will protect the faithful and how all should come to the church, pray and receive communion.
In the orthodox rite Communion is the Body (special bread given by the priest) and the Blood (sweet wine out of a chalice) fed to each supplicant with the SAME %$^$&* Spoon!
konst80hummel wrote: Greece: 4 dead 331 cases. The lock down intensifies with charges pressed against shop owners who were open and additional measures on entrances to supermarkets.
And personal peeve of mine: the #$%&&* Church still hasn't abided by the rules of the lockdown, with one of the most influential Bishops publishing an open letter about how faith will protect the faithful and how all should come to the church, pray and receive communion.
In the orthodox rite Communion is the Body (special bread given by the priest) and the Blood (sweet wine out of a chalice) fed to each supplicant with the SAME %$^$&* Spoon!
Even in my hometown, a catholic hotspot due to a rather well known monastery that has pilgrims from all over europe, they decided to close DOWN everything churchrelated.
Ha, good to know this lunacy is not limited to catholics.
To my knowledge, the local catholic hierarchy decided to abide by govt. suggestion to limit number of people per mass to 50, and some bishops issued guidelines to receive the communion to hand, not to mouth, and to not use the holy water basins.
They still did not decide to close down temples, despite the obvious threat they pose to the elderly which mostly frequent them.
Oh, and one bishop, completely detached from real life as most autocrats are, stated that "only Satan fears the holy water" and "we should joyously ingest the communion as before, Christ does not transfer diseases or illness". Which was so astoundingly stupid even the catholic media called it out.
Marxist artist wrote: I have taken some of orlanths advice and have begun stocking up a bit, not TP essential food, I work in the frontline I.ean acute medical admissions ward and already have the 1st cases in . I am resigned to contracting as my exposure will be huge.
Ironic that if you are young and healthy and not in contact with elderly getting COVID-19 now is, how do I say this - a 'good idea'. Resources are available to treat you, you will likely get individual care prior to overstretch and once you have passed Go and got 200 antibodies life will be so much easier.
And thanks for the mention about taking the stocking up advice. Make the effort worth it to know it is helping people.
I have a suspicion the ‘you can be infected twice’ stories might have been circulated as a deterrent to people intentionally infecting them selves early on (to try and get themselves in ‘ahead of the curve’).
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Yeah, it seems unlikely that you could get reinfected so quickly with the same strain, considering how the body usually works
Would reckon that is true, with false positives and negatives occasionally in the system could potentially account for this.
I am 40 years old so hopefully if/when caught I won't be in the small minority, again more concerned for my sister who is mid cancer treatment.
It might also be due to mistakes or a natural lull in the disease which fooled early tests into thinking you were cured when you weren't. Thus resulting in some going home whilst still being fully infected.
It could also have been that there was some panic to clear beds and thus some were sent home showing very early signs of recovery which later proved to be wrong.
Roberts84 wrote:Mist, which is minimum 70 microns up to 350 microns, is basically what coronavirus travels in.
There's absolutely no way this can penetrate a 6001CN organic vapors cartridge. Impossible.
Yeah and with the virus not being transferred by air using those filter on a standard mask that does not cover the eyes too is just an expensive gimmick
Da Boss wrote:Thanks Kodos, that is interesting. I am not as familiar with PCR, only done it once or twice. Likely it can also give false positives though, like any chemical test.
there were already false positves as you can be positive for the virus without having the infection
queen_annes_revenge wrote: Yeah, it seems unlikely that you could get reinfected so quickly with the same strain, considering how the body usually works
Would reckon that is true, with false positives and negatives occasionally in the system could potentially account for this.
there are corona viruses that cause the standard cold and you can get reinfected soon after you recovered
so it is hard to tell at the moment what is really going on
ValentineGames wrote: Oof. 35 dead in England.
Was only 10 or 11 Friday.
Triples in only a weekend.
Well assuming mortality rate 0.5% then to archieve the herd immunity boris is aiming we are looking at around 200k deaths. So it's mild start...better hope the mortality rate in uk is lower than elsewhere. If it's around 3% like who says that's over million death.
we just wen't up witth another +1000 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections in the span of one day. I'm wondering how wide and fast this thing is spreading in big countries like the US and russia.
60+ confirmed infections in russia seems a little on the low side, no? are russians just generally better at isolating themselves from eachother, or is the kremlin holding back from us the true number of registered cases of infections?
tneva82 wrote: Or not doing much testing. Japan is also dubious on that front.
If you test 10 per day vs 10k per day then you appear cleaner even if patient count is samn
I think that was the original strategy for the white house back a month or so? keep stesting to a minimum, fervently hope the masses stay ignorant about the potential danger and just ride this whole thing out.
Cronch wrote: Ha, good to know this lunacy is not limited to catholics.
To my knowledge, the local catholic hierarchy decided to abide by govt. suggestion to limit number of people per mass to 50, and some bishops issued guidelines to receive the communion to hand, not to mouth, and to not use the holy water basins.
They still did not decide to close down temples, despite the obvious threat they pose to the elderly which mostly frequent them.
Oh, and one bishop, completely detached from real life as most autocrats are, stated that "only Satan fears the holy water" and "we should joyously ingest the communion as before, Christ does not transfer diseases or illness". Which was so astoundingly stupid even the catholic media called it out.
Ha, it wasn't the bishop which ordered it, but the local and biggest monastery in switzerland that decided to close shop. That has also to do that they are under more democratic oversight due to the specific historic conflict during the formation of the federal state. Which forces especially the local branches to be a lot more concerned for the opinion of the locals.
(come to think of it, direct democratic institutions or semi formal institutions have infiltrated a lot of normally hierarchic structures, not unlike a virus itself )
Yeah, the Netherlands have stopped testing direct relatives of infected cases basically assuming they'll catch it.
On a somewhat related note, despite official recommendations from WHO, RIVM, and ISOS-type organisations as well as our direct client's advise to not travel unless absolutely necessary or at all in the latter case, the company I work for has decided to just ignore all that and "evaluate the risks each trip individually", without, apparently, taking necessity into account, and is telling people that with mild symptoms they must still work, albeit from home only, when possible.
Because money > public and employee health, I guess. I'm basically waiting for either the Dutch or the Angolan government to close the airports to force the company to do the right thing...
Cronch wrote: Honestly, that's the general strat it seems. No one is doing as many tests as SEA countries did.
I think Cuba was comparable, but nowhere else beyond East Asia.
It'd be near impossible without fantastic systems in place in advance. China is testing people several times a day if they're moving around, in facilities that do nothing else, and turning results around whilst the patients wait and then sends them directly to isolation if positive. South Korea, Vietnam etc are doing similar things as I understand it. Pretty much everywhere else has overrun facilities and sometimes multi-day lag times between test and result whilst people go home and mix with their families. If you don't have centralised, high spending, state medical infrastructure though (that doesn't sell off everything not being actively used - China was able to simply reopen mothballed SARS facilities as well as mandate massive new construction instantly), you're never going to have the facilities ready to go.
> I have a suspicion the ‘you can be infected twice’ stories might have been circulated as a deterrent to people intentionally infecting them selves early on (to try and get themselves in ‘ahead of the curve’).
Could also be faulty testing or dormancy. "“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant with minimal symptoms,” Philip Tierno Jr., professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University, told Reuters last month. ... “And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” he said. ... testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too prematurely, are more likely the reason for reports of patients who retest positive. ... Fukuda told the paper that it’s more likely patients are being released from hospitals while carrying dormant fragments of the disease that are not infectious, but resemble the virus when tested." Still, sounded like they weren't entirely sure.
State of Wyoming (.... Where?) closed all schools until April 3rd, and my church stopped lent and other worship services. Going to online only sermons and services.
I managed to get downtown to spread my money around to the local businesses I would like to not go out or business before the big shut downs hit in this area. This tourist town is toast this summer.
What's the justification for the several states / cities who closed sit down restaurants, but allowed carry out? I guess in the first case, you interact with a server, and in the second case the only interaction is those preparing the food? Generally, tables are not that close together, so it must be concern about an infected server, right? But an infected cook would result in similar...
I don't know, at some point the cure might be worse than the disease. Are they really going to bankrupt all restaurants in their states by keeping them closed for months? And now all those workers are unemployed...
I just can't think of a time I felt I got sick from eating at a restaurant. I can see gatherings where people are closer together, like bars or concerts, but I would like to see where it was recommended that they take this action. It certainly seems to have contributed to the grocery market panic buying, which is a huge negative. Overall, just not sure that was the right call... society has to continue to function.
RiTides wrote: What's the justification for the several states / cities who closed sit down restaurants, but allowed carry out? I guess in the first case, you interact with a server, and in the second case the only interaction is those preparing the food? Generally, tables are not that close together, so it must be concern about an infected server, right? But an infected cook would result in similar...
I don't know, at some point the cure might be worse than the disease. Are they really going to bankrupt all restaurants in their states by keeping them closed for months? And now all those workers are unemployed...
I just can't think of a time I felt I got sick from eating at a restaurant. I can see gatherings where people are closer together, like bars or concerts, but I would like to see where it was recommended that they take this action. It certainly seems to have contributed to the grocery market panic buying, which is a huge negative. Overall, just not sure that was the right call... society has to continue to function.
Anyway, yeah... interested in thoughts on this!
You’re extremely lucky to not have experienced food poisoning, which I have, several times from eating out.
Personally, I’m not eating anywhere outside of my own home and I am making all my own food.
Restaurants are Petri dishes of sickness, and it’s the last place I’d want to be during a pandemic.
I worked in them for over 20 years and I can tell you some horror stories that would never make you want to eat out again.
Our schools are closed indefinitely and the kids are not expected to go back until further notice.
The malls are only open for 8 hours a day now, with many stores just shuttering up.
As for the economic impact? It serious and should be a wake up call for how poorly prepared we are for any event like this.
If this isn’t the call for change in the way we do business, interact, work, and how we handle health care, nothing will.
This is an impetus for massive changes to our social structure and society, as we will see in the coming months.
Our system is already strained and it’s only a short jump away from near collapse.
Change is needed so something like this doesn’t ever have this kind of affect on all of the world ever again.
We had many warnings with SARS, MERS, etc. and we ignored the implications and carried on.
And now look where we’re at because the almighty profit rules the world.
Food poisoning is generally from bad ingredients. Did you ever feel like you got the flu from a restaurant? I certainly haven't felt that way... I can almost always trace it to a coworker / friend / school / etc.
So, I don't get why that helps... bars where people interact with strangers, sure, but eating in a booth in a restaurant involves no extra interaction other than with a server.
Putting all those people suddenly out of work just seems like it needs a better scientific justification to me. And I didn't see that recommended by the sources I'm following...
RiTides wrote: What's the justification for the several states / cities who closed sit down restaurants, but allowed carry out? I guess in the first case, you interact with a server, and in the second case the only interaction is those preparing the food? Generally, tables are not that close together, so it must be concern about an infected server, right? But an infected cook would result in similar...
RiTides wrote: What's the justification for the several states / cities who closed sit down restaurants, but allowed carry out? I guess in the first case, you interact with a server, and in the second case the only interaction is those preparing the food? Generally, tables are not that close together, so it must be concern about an infected server, right? But an infected cook would result in similar...
I don't know, at some point the cure might be worse than the disease. Are they really going to bankrupt all restaurants in their states by keeping them closed for months? And now all those workers are unemployed...
I just can't think of a time I felt I got sick from eating at a restaurant. I can see gatherings where people are closer together, like bars or concerts, but I would like to see where it was recommended that they take this action. It certainly seems to have contributed to the grocery market panic buying, which is a huge negative. Overall, just not sure that was the right call... society has to continue to function.
Anyway, yeah... interested in thoughts on this!
If only all countries had paid time off in their labor law. If only some countries didn't have at-will employment which ensures sick people will keep coming to work...
Da Boss - There's quite a few things happening (a nationwide relief bill, and of course state measures, since we're obviously a much larger country). But the suddeness of this is obviously going to be difficult for both businesses and their workers who are suddenly unemployed...
RiTides wrote: What's the justification for the several states / cities who closed sit down restaurants, but allowed carry out? I guess in the first case, you interact with a server, and in the second case the only interaction is those preparing the food? Generally, tables are not that close together, so it must be concern about an infected server, right? But an infected cook would result in similar...
I don't know, at some point the cure might be worse than the disease. Are they really going to bankrupt all restaurants in their states by keeping them closed for months? And now all those workers are unemployed...
I just can't think of a time I felt I got sick from eating at a restaurant. I can see gatherings where people are closer together, like bars or concerts, but I would like to see where it was recommended that they take this action. It certainly seems to have contributed to the grocery market panic buying, which is a huge negative. Overall, just not sure that was the right call... society has to continue to function.
Anyway, yeah... interested in thoughts on this!
This is a very contagious virus that can be spread (primarily spread?) by people showing no symptoms. Stop thinking about it as *your* risk and start thinking about it as the risk that *you could be sharing it* with many other people in a given gathering place.
Again, facts are important. Rudy Gobert, an NBA player, tested positive and had interactions with thousands of people before he realized.
So far a week later, only his extremely close teammate who shares a locker, and an opposing center he physically fought for a whole game, tested positive.
We're talking about public health and society. People sitting in their own booth are very unlikely to spread the disease. So is it worth closing All sit down restaurants in a state, and putting all those people out of work, to mitigate that risk? Those people don't disappear, maybe now they need to go into settings where they have even closer contact.
I just want to see some sort of science based justification for that policy. Again, have you ever felt like you got a cold or flu from a sitdown restaurant? As Ernestas said, it's one of the last public places I think you're likely to get infected, because people already distance themselves due to food being involved. Schools, churches, even supermarkets seem wayyyyy more likely.
I'd love to see a study of how cold/flu is transmitted, and where sitdown restaurants rank on that.
I just can't think of a time I felt I got sick from eating at a restaurant.
I can think of about a dozen times where the only potential vector was a restaurant. Granted some of those times were food poisoning or digestive related, but inadequate cleaning and serving staff are easy to see as potential routes of infection.
People need to clam their tits. This is no worse than seasonal flu. I couldn't even buy any fething hot pockets at the store because some people came in and bought them all.
Voss: But food poisoning and digestive things don't count, obviously - it's whether or not you got the cold/flu. Regarding hard surfaces, from what I'm seeing those are a very low risk for contracting the disease - it's all about personal contact.
i caught the norovirus from eating at a diner, resulting in me being sick for 24 hours with intense stomach pain, diarrhea, vomiting and high fever.
I guess whomever prepared my food must have had the virus beforehand and did not wear gloves doing work.
But that's the point, if something was in the food, forcing the restaurants to only serve carry out would make no difference at all in that scenario...
Togusa wrote: People need to clam their tits. This is no worse than seasonal flu. I couldn't even buy any fething hot pockets at the store because some tards came in and bought them all.
No, this is definitely worse than seasonal flu. I agree though, people should remain calm.
It's worse, but in some ways, the reaction is out of proportion.
I think what got me riled up about this today was reading about the restaurant closures, which contributes to a run on supermarkets, which where I went today were completely out of baby wipes.
Yes, I can wash my young child's butt in the sink, but you can bet I'm fuming about all the irrational behavior / non-science-based decisions people are making while I'm doing so
Unless you happen to count mortality rate, in which case it's significantly worse. It's not a civilization-ender like the Plague obviously, but it's not "just" flu.
Well it must be starting to calm down.
Managed to restock my cupboards without going overboard like everyone else and I've got 20 rolls of loo roll which should last me 3/4 months no problem.
Still no soap or hand gel.
But plenty of lemon juice, savlon and salt.
RiTides wrote: Voss: But food poisoning and digestive things don't count, obviously - it's whether or not you got the cold/flu. Regarding hard surfaces, from what I'm seeing those are a very low risk for contracting the disease - it's all about personal contact.
I’ve read that most often, what people think is food poisoning is actually a stomach virus they picked up at the restaurant.
Most health officials are telling you that the masks are a dumb idea unless you already the virus. Granted, they’re talking about those little surgeon style masks. You could try a mask with a face shield to avoid getting stuff in the eyes, but if only your nose and mouth are protected and not the rest of your face, you’re doing nothing but looking like a fool. Cover your WHOLE face or don’t bother. And avoid people. Just...take 2 weeks, avoid the human race (other than the people you live with and required emergency services).
BobtheInquisitor wrote: I’ve read that most often, what people think is food poisoning is actually a stomach virus they picked up at the restaurant.
Technically, "food poisoning" is a catch all term that covers any contamination of the food, which includes the stomach virus. But you are correct in that it is usually not the food itself which causes the sickness and instead a norovirus (which you get when the food preparation doesn't include enough hand washing after making poopies)
Unless you happen to count mortality rate, in which case it's significantly worse. It's not a civilization-ender like the Plague obviously, but it's not "just" flu.
2-3% so far with fewer er than 6K deaths world wide as opposed to the flu which has killed 50K plus? The media is trying to scare you, don't listen to them. Protect those with week immune systems who are most a risk. A healthy, non-obese, no problem 30 something isn't going to die from this.
You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.
Cronch wrote: You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.
There aren't 300K dead in the UK. Don't spread nonsense like that, the WW death toll according to the WHO for the 15th of March (most recent data) says that still fewer than 6K have died. Only ten deaths were recorded in China yesterday.
2-3% so far with fewer er than 6K deaths world wide as opposed to the flu which has killed 50K plus?
it is 2-3% with medical treatment, without it is 20% and as soon as there are to more people ill than hospital beds are available you get near those 20.
the flu is ~0,1-0,5% but total numbers are higher because it spreads much wider
Cronch wrote: Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think?
If it makes you feel better, different countries are experiencing very different numbers. It is considerably worse in China and Italy than anywhere else, which suggests that there are environmental, cultural, or dietary differences that affect the numbers. It's not just age. These factors are affecting the severity and the rate of spread. It seems like smoking might be a major contributing factor, with 68% of Chinese men being smokers, and 28% of Italian men.
A 2-3% mortality rate is almost certainly an exaggerated number due to limitations of testing and the fact that we are treating worldwide numbers as if they were the same situation - China, Iran, and Italy's numbers are inflating the projection when in other countries, it is not playing out with similar severity.
Cronch wrote: You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.
There aren't 300K dead in the UK. Don't spread nonsense like that, the WW death toll according to the WHO for the 15th of March (most recent data) says that still fewer than 6K have died. Only ten deaths were recorded in China yesterday.
Try to remember there are differences in how cause of death is recorded in China compared to Western countries.
If someone comes down with Corona Virus and they were diabetic, we call that a CV death. In China, they call that a diabetes death.
Mortality is a bigger figure than what the WHO will report. They know about the problem, it's not theirs to fix. But the numbers they release will always be suspect.
Da Boss wrote: Germany is making a huge fund available to businesses to help prevent them going bust. Is the US not doing something similar?
French is saying full losses covered as well.
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Togusa wrote: People need to clam their tits. This is no worse than seasonal flu. I couldn't even buy any fething hot pockets at the store because some tards came in and bought them all.
Riiiiiight. Seasonal flu has 3% overall mortality rate right?
Seasonal flu causes 10-20% patients need serious health support before healed?
Seasonal flu is so contaginous that entire country literally runs out of hospital places and they have to deny treatment even for people with 15% mortality rate because they are least likely to survive?
Unless you happen to count mortality rate, in which case it's significantly worse. It's not a civilization-ender like the Plague obviously, but it's not "just" flu.
2-3% so far with fewer er than 6K deaths world wide as opposed to the flu which has killed 50K plus? The media is trying to scare you, don't listen to them. Protect those with week immune systems who are most a risk. A healthy, non-obese, no problem 30 something isn't going to die from this.
Ignoring those who have done just that of course. Good way to claim something while ignoring those who did what you claim they didn't
Good arqument you have. Claim something while ignoring opposite. I ignored it, therefore it did not happen.
Cronch wrote: Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think?
If it makes you feel better, different countries are experiencing very different numbers. It is considerably worse in China and Italy than anywhere else, which suggests that there are environmental, cultural, or dietary differences that affect the numbers. It's not just age. These factors are affecting the severity and the rate of spread. It seems like smoking might be a major contributing factor, with 68% of Chinese men being smokers, and 28% of Italian men
20% of the cases needs hospital treatment, the difference in numbers in different countries for deaths depends mostly on how much places are available and how many people need them at the same time
North Italy has much more ill people than beds available and therefore the death rate is higher
Cronch wrote: You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.
There aren't 300K dead in the UK. Don't spread nonsense like that, the WW death toll according to the WHO for the 15th of March (most recent data) says that still fewer than 6K have died. Only ten deaths were recorded in China yesterday.
Gee. OF course there isn't. It hasn't infected yet so many...Let's see. Simple math for elementary school level. Let's see if you can follow.
UK has 65 million people. UK's plan is herd immunity. Ergo it needs 60%+ population to catch it. Let's say they manage to keep it exactly 60% so. That's 39,000,000 infected? Still following?
Okay mortality rate is atm 3% but let's say that's too much. Let's go with 0.5%.
0.5% of 39 million is 195,000.
Following? Still with me?
Now consider this: That's seriously under what it is now. Then add to that that UK is pretty much ignoring it for sake of herd immunity so it will overwhelm NHS. There won't be room and equipment. 10-20% patients need hospital aid. Many of those critical. There won't BE enough room. Italy is already having to ignore people with statistically 15% mortality rate UNAIDED. Do you really expect mortality rate NOT go up if they get no medical help?
Today at work we had a large-scale trial of working from home. Pretty much everyone from our London office was at home, and most people from my site were at home. Only people in were people still working in the distribution centre, and a few IT bods like myself. It was pretty eerie actually, office usually has about 400 people in it and today it was more like 20...
Depending on the feedback tomorrow, we may be continuing it from now on. I know of at least one team that is.
For my team, we're going to do a weekly rotation with half the team onsite and half working remotely. Should at least reduce the risk of us all being taken out of action at once...
Welp, found out Saturday that someone I worked closely with in the call site has been tested and confirmed positive. Had no outward symptoms, which is good, no coughing or sneezing, but I have been told to quarantine by my supervisors. I have the ability to telework so now just juggling that with taking care of my kids who are home since they cancelled schools for 6 weeks.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with everything they are doing, the most impact is made by keeping people apart from each other. Currently I have my kids watching Nat Geo documentaries so we can at least keep some sort of education going until we figure out something else, and I am working away remotely, hoping my co-workers (who also had contact with this person) are able to telework soon.
Try to remember there are differences in how cause of death is recorded in China compared to Western countries.
If someone comes down with Corona Virus and they were diabetic, we call that a CV death. In China, they call that a diabetes death.
It would be difficult to separate the two, practically. For instance, the Spanish Flu did not kill most of the people who died from it. It was a secondary bacteria pneumonia infection which, had they not gotten that, many (even most) would've lived. So did the flu kill all those soldiers, or did pneumonia?
It's also worth pointing out that the general flu's mortality rate is exaggerated as well. When they say 50,000 Americans die from the flu every year, that's not strictly true. They generally combine the deaths of the flu and pneumonia into one number, and also include a lot of other illnesses with flu-like symptoms for which they never tested. There's actually only about 500 deaths due directly to the flu in the US each year. The CDC apparently also triples the number of flu hospitalization cases, since they are only reported if the flu virus is actually found and the CDC considers it to be underreported by a factor of 2.7 and adjusts their numbers based on this estimation.
We needed to get some prescriptions filled so we ended up stopping at the big supermarket even though I didn't wanna. Surprisingly it wasn't bad at all. TP was all gone, but everything else was fine. Some canned goods were running low, but they were there restocking. With schools all closed and more people at home I expected it to be a madhouse, but it really wasn't too crowded. Though it was pretty busy for a monday afternoon.. maybe like the same you would see on a sunday. We were able to stock up on a lot of stuff.
the diner we like to go to was all closed down though :( I feel bad for them, it's a small family run joint, they really don't do take out. I can see why they made the call to close dining rooms though, in our area anyway most restaurants are swamped on weekends, and people in general are slobs. Better safe than sorry I guess. We also drove by an Applebees and the lot was empty at lunch time, but we saw a few people loading up their cars full with boxes of food, dunno if it was big take out orders or if they were letting employees take home food that would spoil?
The UK betting on "Herd Immunity (eventually)" feels like a bit of a risk - and with 70+ year old people being told to possibly quarantine themselves for up to 4 months?
kodos wrote: 20% of the cases needs hospital treatment, the difference in numbers in different countries for deaths depends mostly on how much places are available and how many people need them at the same time
North Italy has much more ill people than beds available and therefore the death rate is higher
I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number. Assuming that is the case, it almost certainly does not control for various factors that could impact the virus' severity. For example, I doubt that 20% of women aged 20-30 with good nutrition, access to clean water and sanitation, which don't smoke or have any underlying conditions will require hospitalization. Similarly, we have no idea how many people out there have contracted the novel coronavirus and are asymptomatic or which have symptoms too mild to bother getting tested. I think the CDC and WHO's numbers are projections based on overly simplistic models that tend to exaggerate the dangers by several orders of magnitude - do you remember when they were publishing articles about how the world's temperatures would rise 6 degrees and 8 million will die from global warming by 2020? Same difference.
No doubt, overwhelming the hospitals is a serious concern and does greatly affect the mortality rate of the disease. This disease primarily targets the immocompromised, which represents the worst case scenario for the disease and its care. There's a reason why the average age of the people who die from this virus are in their 80s. I just believe that there are ways that we can support and help these at risk people than a full shutdown of our society. Quarantining is almost completely ineffective at even a moderate scale, and social distancing can be done without shutting down all the restaurants, gyms, and grocery stores. In fact, the lack of exercise and nutrition as we can't leave our homes and live off stale crackers will make us more susceptible to the disease.
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Alpharius wrote: The UK betting on "Herd Immunity (eventually)" feels like a bit of a risk - and with 70+ year old people being told to possibly quarantine themselves for up to 4 months?
Yikes.
Herd immunity feels like a theory than a tested hypothesis. For instance, they credit the MMR vaccine for creating a herd immunity that has eradicated the measles - but the MMR vaccine doesn't have a 100% protection rate (I think it is 99% after two vaccinations). Mixed with an unvaccinated population and the fact that the MMR vaccine loses efficiency over time at an uneven rate means that we probably have less than 90%-95% coverage mathematically necessary for herd immunity (probably a lot less). In fact, in recent measles outbreaks, a majority of the cases were in the vaccinated (including an outbreak on a navy ship with 100% vaccination rate).
The best way to eradicate a virus would be a pulse vaccination, in which they vaccinate people all at the same time. This would ensure maximum vaccination efficiency in a controlled population. If they did vaccinate in this manner, I'd have more faith in herd immunity being a thing, but the truth is, we don't actually know the vaccination efficiency of people right now. Don't get me wrong, it makes a huge difference, and competent and measured response to outbreaks also helps. I'm just saying that we don't actually have the numbers for complete herd immunity so making decisions on the assumption that it has worked before might be a bit naive.
me and my wife have come up with a social distancing plan. at weekends we are going to head into the oxfordshire countryside for walks with our daughter. they way I see it is we'll hardly see another soul, we'll get fresh air and exercise, and the benefits of experiencing nature.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: me and my wife have come up with a social distancing plan. at weekends we are going to head into the oxfordshire countryside for walks with our daughter. they way I see it is we'll hardly see another soul, we'll get fresh air and exercise, and the benefits of experiencing nature.
I live in the Scottish highlands I just open the door.
As to running out of models to paint my back log is massive.
This is not a society ender, but is already a tradegy with worse to come. Good luck to everyone and support your friends , neighbours and family and support the medical staff, as we are getting busier already and don't call unless you have too.
kodos wrote: 20% of the cases needs hospital treatment, the difference in numbers in different countries for deaths depends mostly on how much places are available and how many people need them at the same time
North Italy has much more ill people than beds available and therefore the death rate is higher
I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number.
from ECDC:
The evidence from analyses of cases to date is that COVID-19 infection causes mild disease (i.e. non-pneumonia or mild pneumonia) in about 80% of cases and most cases recover, 14% develop more severe disease and 6% experience critical illness. Severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions, with these risk groups accounting for the majority of severe disease and fatalities to date. In the event of a disruption of healthcare services, the impact could be very high.
Sqorgar wrote: I'm having difficulty corroborating that 20% number.
from ECDC:
The evidence from analyses of cases to date is that COVID-19 infection causes mild disease (i.e. non-pneumonia or mild pneumonia) in about 80% of cases and most cases recover, 14% develop more severe disease and 6% experience critical illness. Severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions, with these risk groups accounting for the majority of severe disease and fatalities to date. In the event of a disruption of healthcare services, the impact could be very high.
Fair enough, though it does say that severe illness and death is more common among the elderly and those with other chronic underlying conditions - basically that risk does not control for contributing factors like health and age, giving an exaggerated impression of the risk to the average person (creating panic). In practical terms, this means that the actual risk is extremely dependent on certain factors, and how common serious disease is will be dependent on those factors.
For example, Italy has something like 25% of its population over 65, while the US has about 16%. On that statistic alone, it shows that the coronavirus will have a significantly lesser effect on the US than Italy.
I feel like it is really irresponsible of the media and of the WHO to present flat percentages like that without context. It overwhelmingly drives a panic that is not based on a reasonable presentation of the facts.
kodos wrote: And half of the intensive care patients in France are below 50.
it is not as simple as "won't be as worse because there are less old people"
There's other mitigating factors as well. University of Maryland just released a thing saying they studied the climate that the coronavirus propagates in, and found that the places with the outbreaks right now all have similar climates. They found that the virus has an easier time surviving in a 39F environment with humidity between 20 and 80 percent. Though the northern parts of the US are in this band (or will be, as temperatures rise), the southern parts are not. That's not to say there can't be outbreaks in these areas, but that they won't be nearly as bad.
In the US, right now, there are around 4200 confirmed cases. If this was the flu, 4 people would have died. In fact, 74 people have died - nearly 2%. So, 20 times worse than the seasonal flu, right at the onset, here in the US, when we're in as good a shape as we're going to get. it's only going to get worse as this goes on.
In the US, right now, there are around 4200 confirmed cases. If this was the flu, 4 people would have died. In fact, 74 people have died - nearly 2%. So, 20 times worse than the seasonal flu, right at the onset, here in the US, when we're in as good a shape as we're going to get. it's only going to get worse as this goes on.
So, you're pretty badly wrong.
edit: removed that slur you used from that quote.
Mate there are some things that you shouldn't dignify with a response.
Ouze, I don't normally did this, but I went to Fox News just now and it's wall to wall coronavirus coverage, none of it minimizing it from what I can tell. This matches what I heard on a fivethirtyeight podcast analyzing coverage of it so far. Let's not get this into the weeds unnecessarily... this is really serious, and we should all be treating it as such.
The coronavirus has a 0.6% (and dropping) mortality rate in South Korea, and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 2% mortality rate). Even in China, the mortality rate differs considerably based on where. Wuhan has a mortality rate of about (I think) 5% to 7%, while outside of Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 0.7%. And this is all based on the amount of testing done, which is rather insignificant outside of South Korea - which means that when all is said and done, the mortality rate (globally) will probably continue to inch closer and closer to normal flu rates.
RiTides wrote: Ouze, I don't normally did this, but I went to Fox News just now and it's wall to wall coronavirus coverage, none of it minimizing it from what I can tell. This matches what I heard on a fivethirtyeight podcast analyzing coverage of it so far. Let's not get this into the weeds unnecessarily... this is really serious, and we should all be treating it as such.
What you just said is definitely nor accurate, certainly over the last few weeks. On the other hand, you also said I can't rebut it here. So, feel free to PM me if anyone wants copious sources of various fox news people doing exactly what I said they have been doing.
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Sqorgar wrote: and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 0.02% mortality rate).
You sure about that math, buddy?
Automatically Appended Next Post: I see you edited your post. I will take that as an agreement that yes, it is at least 20 times worse that the seasonal flu, and we can start dismissing out of hand anyone who makes that comparison.
It was already corrected before you responded. Even at 2%, you have to factor in that the US is simply not testing people for coronavirus in a sufficient quantity unless they are already exhibiting severe symptoms, so the numbers are biased considerably - even then, it is still less than the quoted 3%.
In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.
In the Netherlands, about 50% of those hospitalised with severe symptoms are below 50 years of age. Then again, the average age of actual casualties was as of this morning 79 years old. Some 25 people dead out of ~1400+ confirmed cases there, but numbers are rising rapidly.
In Italy, the death toll is much higher, 1800+ of <24800 confirmed cases this morning, approaching 7,5% - presumably because their healthcare system is overtaxed. That's not counting people who die because they can't get the care they need for other diseases due to said overtaxing, and obviously not counting unreported cases. It does fairly closely match the worldwide numbers though.
That overtaxing, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.
There's fairly simple graphs going around the interwebz that illustrate this.
...
I'm still more worried about catching malaria where I am now. That and being stuck here some 7000 kilometers from my wife and kids while this thing runs its course.
Edit: On a lighter note, yesterday the Dutch government mandated closure of all horeca (restaurants, pubs, snackbars etc). So naturally, within half an hour there were massive lines at coffeeshops as those with a taste for the stuff wanted to get their supply of marihuana for the duration of the emergency . Good to see people have their priorities straight.
The coronavirus has a 0.6% (and dropping) mortality rate in South Korea, and though the US has had 3,487 cases, there have only been 68 deaths (or 2% mortality rate). Even in China, the mortality rate differs considerably based on where. Wuhan has a mortality rate of about (I think) 5% to 7%, while outside of Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 0.7%. And this is all based on the amount of testing done, which is rather insignificant outside of South Korea - which means that when all is said and done, the mortality rate (globally) will probably continue to inch closer and closer to normal flu rates.
I so love the people who say there is hundred of thousands of unknown cases but want to use the same mortality rates, talk about intellectual dishonesty. I don't know what the "final numbers" will be but I do know we don't know near enough accurately at this point and I'd trus the numbers out of SK alot more than Id trust the numbers from China, just have to figure out what the variables are hidden in the numbers.
Bran Dawri wrote: So naturally, within half an hour there were massive lines at coffeeshops as those with a taste for the stuff wanted to get their supply of marihuana for the duration of the emergency . Good to see people have their priorities straight.
Illinois closed bars, restaurants, etc - and the first question I heard a lot was "what about the dispensaries?"
Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask
Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask
The mask isn't pointless. The mask he has will, 100%, prevent aerosol transmission.
The flu cases are also spread in the timelapse of 4-5 months, from normally late september-october to february.
This is happening in the timelapse of 10 days. In Italy, aprox 2,3k people have died on a relatively small area in less than 18 days.
And many of them were "young" people. The first case, a 38 yeard old man spent 15 years hospitaliced with respirators. This is not the end of the world. But take it seriously people, really. The world doesnt stops and loses billions of dollars for a flu. Remember the porcine flu. It was the GREAT FLU and it was nothing more than histeria.
Cronch wrote: You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.
There aren't 300K dead in the UK. Don't spread nonsense like that, the WW death toll according to the WHO for the 15th of March (most recent data) says that still fewer than 6K have died. Only ten deaths were recorded in China yesterday.
Of course there are not 300k dead right now. I thought it'd be kind of obvious to understand the post is speculative, to give comparison of flu vs covid mortality rates, and not statement of current situation?
My club has closed its doors following Bo Jo's recommendation. We already have paid for the hall so we are all donating despite not being able to play which sucks.. Not sure how its going to work out long term but we might loose the venue if we cant cough up.
Also made a decision not to go to the gym, pool or sauna for the foreseeable future which sucks big time.
A lot of businesses are fudged because the uk GOV has made a recommendation and not a mandate. Meaning they cant claim for insurance (and then in turn mega claim for reassurance from the gov down the line). Many pubs were struggling already so this will be a death knell for a bunch of small businesses sadly. :( So I guess more Tesco expresses and MCDonalds drive thrus instead. Frustrating the gov is not stepping up. Some countries have pledged funds in order to support vulnerable business.
Its certainly seems to be something more severe than flu. My old man is at double risk group 60+ and pre existing poulminary condition so Im pretty worried about him.
Missus works in a hospital in south Manchester , 2 people died tonight of covid (so far) , one was 60+ with respiratory problems , other was 40+ with no known issues.... apparently loads of staff have called in “sick” due to fear as well . Worrying times
If you'd prefer, it is a hypothesis, but not a tested one.
In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.
We know everybody who died, we don't know everybody who has it. With more substantial testing, the mortality rate will only go down as we learn more and more people have it, but did not die from it.
In the Netherlands, about 50% of those hospitalised with severe symptoms are below 50 years of age. Then again, the average age of actual casualties was as of this morning 79 years old. Some 25 people dead out of ~1400+ confirmed cases there, but numbers are rising rapidly.
In the Netherlands, 1 in 4 people smoke (about 4 million people - and that's down from 40% in 2000). France also said half the hospitalized were under 50, but France has nearly 1 in 3 people smoking and 18 million smokers. People who smoke 20 cigarettes or more a day are three times more likely to develop pneumonia. Smokers have high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and are at a much higher risk for ANY respiratory disease. Smoking is probably just as important to this disease as age, as far as hospitalization goes.
That overtaxing, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.
I would be very wary of any vaccine developed in haste. The original Salk polio vaccine, approved in a record 2 hours time, was poorly made by Cutter Industries (it did not completely kill the virus) and ended up giving 40,000 children polio, paralyzing 160, and killing 10. And here's a 60 Minutes segment on the 4,000 people suing after getting neurological damage from a Swine flu vaccine in 1976 - the primary complaint being that they knew the vaccine had serious side effects, which they intentionally hid from the people.
A proper vaccine takes time to develop, and it needs to be properly tested, which takes even more time. We're talking years here. Rushing something like that out to the public without proper testing could be more devastating than the disease. Most likely, as viral outbreaks tend to be seasonal, the coronavirus will naturally subside during the summer months without outside influence.
Honestly, I think all this talk of a vaccine is really just an attempt to calm the markets. It's never going to get here in time to make a difference - and I agree, testing should not be rushed. My guess is 2 years absolute minimum.
Contrasting East Asian mortality figures (outside of Hubei) with Western numbers is meaningless. Mortality rates don't exist in isolation. We're not dealing with 'what is the mortality rate of of Covid-19?'. We're dealing with 'what is the mortality rate of Covid-19 in the context of available medical treatment'.
East Asia has a) learnt from SARS and swine flu and got on this FAST; b) has mothballed SARS facilities that could be instantly utilised; and c) has many available ICU beds.
Nowhere in the west has those things. When beds are full and isolated treatment facilities and quarantine spaces are overun, those mortality rates go up. Quickly.
Everything I've read points to the opposite, that mortality rates will likely be lower for more developed countries, for pretty obvious reasons.
Of course, if the response is too slow and they get overwhelmed, it'd be a different story. But the response here since last week has been pretty dramatic. Here's hoping it's enough to stem the tide / flatten the curve enough to manage it.
Edit: Ah, maybe you're referring to South Korea (from a post last page) in which case that makes more sense. "East Asia" threw me off
Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.
London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask
The mask isn't pointless. The mask he has will, 100%, prevent aerosol transmission.
And it has a visor. I bought the 3M 6800.
As for travelling to London by bike, nice idea, but I am currently on the Welsh borders, and do not drive.
Soo i had to fill out a telecommuting agreement for my work from todays date, to the same date in 2021....
and my job cant be done via telecommuting........barely...
I work for one of the biggest “big box” stores in the US. We are out of everything anyone could conceivably want from us during a pandemic. The government is recommending gatherings of no more than 10 people and we already have one employee out with potential COVID-19 infection.
But do we close? Of course not. CEOs need to wake the feth up, forego their 3rd vacation of the year and take care of the staff that make them billionaires.
Ouze wrote: Ced's post: yet another Coronavirus fatality.
ROTFLMAO -- RiTides wrote me a courteous letter, so no problems. I'll just copypasta what I just wrote on Beasts of War.
We have a vaccine for influenza.
We do not have a vaccine for CoVid.
IMO, THAT is the difference between “the flu” and the coronavirus. Even though a flu vaccine isn’t always effective, it makes transmission of a virus more difficult. Not only can fewer people catch a virus if there’s a vaccine, the people who can catch the virus are spread out further, in effect, keeping that 6′ distance away from someone who’s infected. This also means that those who don’t have a flu shot still benefit from the vaccine because others are immune. This is called “herd immunity”. Moooo.
I really wish this was stressed better by the media and government. CoVid isn’t measles, but “In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles. ... widespread use of measles vaccine drastically reduced the disease rates. By 1981, the number of reported measles cases was 80% less compared with the previous year."
That’s a lot of hospital beds, and I’m still looking for studies about the long-term effects of CoVid on patients who have recovered. If we assume the lungs recover from CoVid like they do from smoking after quitting, odds may be pretty good, since your lungs do heal after quitting. CoVid deaths in China are higher in males, possibly because of the high rate of males smoking in China, and low rates by women. The ban on smoking in the USA started in 2003, so I imagine we're actually better off than if the virus hit the USA alongside the Y2K bug.
Thankfully vaccine research has already started, and, hopefully, we’ll eventually have a vaccine. Right now, the SF Bay Area has "ordered" self-isolation and the opening of only essential services (eg. groceries, banks, and, yes, laundromats). While I wish our local governments released this statement back in January, it's at least some sort of vote of confidence, even if it doesn't really do anything more than what those who prepared are already doing. (Schools are finally closed, so that's a step in the right direction. Nothing better than having that kid get the parents infected, then the parents spreading it all over the office.)
Overnight my company changed its stance to work at home until further notice if you can.
Fortunately I have a laptop and a VPN toekn, and I borrowed a MiFi unit, so I'm okay as long as the mobile phone signal is good.
I'll take the opportunity to pop out first thing for food. The local supermarket was stripped pretty bare last night. Panic buying has accelerated in the UK thanks to 'rational' panic buyers who are now panic buying because they've seen 10 days of stuff being out of stock.
It was already corrected before you responded. Even at 2%, you have to factor in that the US is simply not testing people for coronavirus in a sufficient quantity unless they are already exhibiting severe symptoms, so the numbers are biased considerably - even then, it is still less than the quoted 3%.
And what happens when health system gets totally overwhelmed and people have to be abandoned?
For fun tidbit. UK gov is working with numbers 80% gets infected(which will overwhelm NHS big time. Especially as they have less seats related to size of population than Italy which already got overswamped and they have to abandon elderly sick people to their faith. Go home and good luck) and 3% mortality rate.
Hair rising. That's what UK gov expects to happen.
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RiTides wrote: Everything I've read points to the opposite, that mortality rates will likely be lower for more developed countries, for pretty obvious reasons.
Of course, if the response is too slow and they get overwhelmed, it'd be a different story. But the response here since last week has been pretty dramatic. Here's hoping it's enough to stem the tide / flatten the curve enough to manage it.
Edit: Ah, maybe you're referring to South Korea (from a post last page) in which case that makes more sense. "East Asia" threw me off
China had tons of facilities for this kind of thing ready for use. They had no qualms locking down the place right away. They had production capability and supplies to deal with it(And send tons of stuff to Italy to help them out along with 9 experts).
Italy meanwhile is already overrun with beds. They don't HAVE enough beds. Not even close. UK is in even worse shape so unless they can keep infection rate lower than italy they will be hit by overload even worse. There's less beds and intense care equipment per population in UK than in Italy(worryingly so is Finland...). Not sure what's the status is in US but seeing they don't have public healthcare for all wouldn't expect them to have relatively more(maybe absolutely more but bigger population as well) and how many can afford care who needs it...
China had better chance to deal with this than in many western country. They have had experience with this for one and bigger resources.
In other news doctors are looking at using blood transfers from recovered people much like century ago when there were no vaccines when it was used with reasonable effect to combat symptoms for worst hit. China has already had some good results with that. And as it's technique used before technology is already there and less legal issues.
If you'd prefer, it is a hypothesis, but not a tested one.
Much better, thank you. Or you could say it's a hypothesis, not a theory.
In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.
We know everybody who died, we don't know everybody who has it. With more substantial testing, the mortality rate will only go down as we learn more and more people have it, but did not die from it.
Yes? I said as much, and pointed out - which you completely ignored- that the mortality rate by the numbers is significantly higher (>7%) than the reported rate of 3%, which can only mean that that 3% does, in fact, take unreported cases into account, presumably by way of statistics.
In the Netherlands, 1 in 4 people smoke (about 4 million people - and that's down from 40% in 2000). France also said half the hospitalized were under 50, but France has nearly 1 in 3 people smoking and 18 million smokers. People who smoke 20 cigarettes or more a day are three times more likely to develop pneumonia. Smokers have high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and are at a much higher risk for ANY respiratory disease. Smoking is probably just as important to this disease as age, as far as hospitalization goes.
I'm not so sure. Going by your numbers, France has 33% more smokers than the the Netherlands, but not a commensurate increase of under-50s hospitalised
That, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.
I would be very wary of any vaccine developed in haste. The original Salk polio vaccine, approved in a record 2 hours time, was poorly made by Cutter Industries (it did not completely kill the virus) and ended up giving 40,000 children polio, paralyzing 160, and killing 10. And here's a 60 Minutes segment on the 4,000 people suing after getting neurological damage from a Swine flu vaccine in 1976 - the primary complaint being that they knew the vaccine had serious side effects, which they intentionally hid from the people.
A proper vaccine takes time to develop, and it needs to be properly tested, which takes even more time. We're talking years here. Rushing something like that out to the public without proper testing could be more devastating than the disease. Most likely, as viral outbreaks tend to be seasonal, the coronavirus will naturally subside during the summer months without outside influence.
Again, the main point of almost every single country's lockdown is to limit the spread so the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed. Well, everywhere except the UK, apparently, who just went f*ck it, we'll just go full-on Darwin Award on this, and screw the poor, old and infirm.
The vaccine, if it does arrive in time, is just a bonus.
I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
The measures being taken here are to, as best as reasonably practicable, protect the at risk groups, whilst simultaneously ensuring that those required to keep things running (NHS, emergency response, military, supply chain logistics, grocery stores etc) are still available to perform those jobs. otherwise the country will grind to a halt, with no one able to receive treatment.
I've just been to the shop on my unit. good stocks of most things. Bread section was desolate and beans and chopped tomatoes are limited to 1 per customer, although I'll probably go and get some more tomorrow. all other canned goods are not limited. I suppose thats one benefit of living in whats essentially a gated community.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
The publications now creeping out seem to imply that it was wrong*, but I don't think it was disingenuous. Vallance and Whitty are experts and I believe government were following their advice, but their advice appears to have been rooted in problematic data and incorrect assumptions.
We'll see when the full data is published and scrutinised, though they seem to be suggesting that's weeks away.
*in terms of fighting the virus as a mathematical problem - I still think they may have been working with solid assumptions about human behaviour in sustained quarantine and I still have deep worries about the quarantined repercussions for socially vulnerable groups.
Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
Mmmm, I spoke hyperbolically to draw attention to the contrast about what I believed, and still believe, to be a wrongheaded approach to the problem. Politics didn't come into it though - I'm not British.
Roberts84 wrote: Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.
Roberts84 wrote: Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
.
Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.
And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.
This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...
Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
Roberts84 wrote: Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.
Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.
And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.
This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...
Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
.
You are misreading this. Herd immunity is the answer, because claims of containment are going to fail and no matter our strategy, it will end with herd immunity. We will develop herd immunity is more honest than we are going to stop the virus.
This pandemic doesn't have neat easy correct answers, it is going to be messy, many will die. This will happen if you make media friendly actions of actions that the media dislike.
There are too many experts with an internet connection, Boris and Co chose which ones they are going to listen to, and they made their point clearly.
Had Johnson advocated total lockdown alternate experts would be saying herd immunity is the thing, lockdown wasnt going to work and it will cost 200k casualties before the mistake is rectified, and the press would lap it up. Whichever strategy was adopted, opposed strategy scientists would get air time. That is how press works, particularly in the UK.
You cant win the media war in a scenario where there isn't a single obvious solution, all you can do is make the best of bad choices to deal with the pandemic. Nobody knows what the right strategy is, but the health experts the government are following have espoused a sound plan, its logical and it makes sense. It has convinced me. Others may be convinced by alternate approaches, or just passed around between multiple negative articles in the press.
I gave a warning on page one or two of this thread, when this was just a China issue, that if it reached the west there would be too many opinions and action would be constrained by our natural liberties. An authoritarian society has the best chance of succeeding in a lockdown, and they can best ensure compliance. You really think you are going to seal France? There will be leakage, there will be outbreaks. Sorry lockdowns don't work in western culture, we are too used to our liberties, and our people are soft and easily scared.
With so many experts in this thread with the correct answer how is this not cured yet???
OK yeah the answers are opinions and nothing more.
But these are opinions on the Internet! It's better than facts!
Roberts84 wrote: Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
tneva82 wrote: Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.
And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.
This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...
Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
Roberts84 wrote: Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.
You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.
Profit comes from not losing billions.
What kind of sauce do you want for that chip on your shoulder?
queen_annes_revenge wrote: I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
.
Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.
And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.
This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...
Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
A) they were listening to experts. The experts appear to have been wrong.
B) this really isn't a time for I told you so smugness.
The Imperial College COVID-19 working group, who leaks indicate have been the key advisors to Vallance and Whitty, yesterday published an article essentially saying that of the two possible strategies, strategy A ('mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection') which was the UK policy is absolutely the poorer option and strategy B, suppression, is now essential.
As I stated in my previous response to you, though, this assumes that 'correct' is synonymous with 'mathematically optimal in viral terms' and ignores social repercussions.
EDIT: we may not, of course, ever know for certain whether they were wrong. Everyone is using problematic data. We'll have a better idea when all their data from the outset is released, but by then obviously it'll be far too late to redress errors. It likely already is. So we have to trust experts as best we can and hope for the best.
Do you have a link hulk? There seem to be a few that can be applied, the one I read was an HIV and malaria drug combination. Great that things on the vaccine/treatment front are looking promising, at least!
Oh look, the mods can delete posts when it suits them.
Anyway, I’m going to try and put some of my old jobs to good use. The petrol station I worked in can provide supplies, and I have a mental list of vulnerable people in my head from my time as a bin man. Going to see if I can work out some sort of care package system, or at least help out if they already have one going.
Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.
Anyway, I’m going to try and put some of my old jobs to good use. The petrol station I worked in can provide supplies, and I have a mental list of vulnerable people in my head from my time as a bin man. Going to see if I can work out some sort of care package system, or at least help out if they already have one going.
Good man. Have an exalt.
In other news, I'm stuck in Angola until this blows over or the project is over, whichever comes first. At least Angola is currently Corona-free. Hopefully it stays that way, because this is *not* a place you want to be stuck with a potentially life-threatening disease.
We have a vaccine for influenza.
We do not have a vaccine for CoVid.
IMO, THAT is the difference between “the flu” and the coronavirus. Even though a flu vaccine isn’t always effective, it makes transmission of a virus more difficult. Not only can fewer people catch a virus if there’s a vaccine, the people who can catch the virus are spread out further, in effect, keeping that 6′ distance away from someone who’s infected. This also means that those who don’t have a flu shot still benefit from the vaccine because others are immune. This is called “herd immunity”. Moooo.
That's not how it actually works. To create the flu vaccine, they generally make an educated guess months in advance about which flu strains will be dominant during the winter months. These predictions are always wrong (sometimes disastrously so), and the effectiveness of flu vaccines generally sit at around 10% protection - sometimes as low as 5% - certainly not enough for herd immunity. Herd immunity is based on how contagious the disease is, and you'd probably need close to 90% immunity for the flu. Since we don't get anywhere near that, we still have hundreds of thousands of cases of the flu every year. To make matters worse, flu vaccines can actually make you more susceptible different flu strains, and a recent military study has shown that flu vaccinations actually increase your chances of getting a coronavirus (not this coronavirus, but in general).
I really wish this was stressed better by the media and government. CoVid isn’t measles, but “In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles. ... widespread use of measles vaccine drastically reduced the disease rates. By 1981, the number of reported measles cases was 80% less compared with the previous year."
To put things in perspective, trampolines killed about 4,800 kids in 2006 and sent 105,000 to emergency rooms, with 1 in 200 injuries leading to permanent neurological damage - and don't even get me started on swimming pools, which kill about 3,500 people a year and hospitalizes a lot more. In the 1960s, before the measles vaccine, the hospitals were hardly being overrun by the measles.
That’s a lot of hospital beds, and I’m still looking for studies about the long-term effects of CoVid on patients who have recovered. If we assume the lungs recover from CoVid like they do from smoking after quitting, odds may be pretty good, since your lungs do heal after quitting. CoVid deaths in China are higher in males, possibly because of the high rate of males smoking in China, and low rates by women. The ban on smoking in the USA started in 2003, so I imagine we're actually better off than if the virus hit the USA alongside the Y2K bug.
There's numerous reasons to believe that it won't be as bad in the US. Climate, health, nutrition, distance, and so on should ensure that the disease spreads much slower, while these same factors could also mean that the severity of the disease in those who do get it will be much less. Smoking definitely seems to be a major factor in the severity of the disease, and as I've mentioned, smokers have three time higher chance of getting pneumonia than non-smokers.
What I'm curious about is where vaping fits into all of this. It wasn't that long enough that there was some sort of bronchial damage attributed to vaping, with side effects that aren't particularly unlike what the coronavirus is now. I'm wondering if vaping actually makes you more susceptible to this virus than smoking. The devastation to the m'lady population will be immense.
Thankfully vaccine research has already started, and, hopefully, we’ll eventually have a vaccine. Right now, the SF Bay Area has "ordered" self-isolation and the opening of only essential services (eg. groceries, banks, and, yes, laundromats). While I wish our local governments released this statement back in January, it's at least some sort of vote of confidence, even if it doesn't really do anything more than what those who prepared are already doing. (Schools are finally closed, so that's a step in the right direction. Nothing better than having that kid get the parents infected, then the parents spreading it all over the office.)
First off, I wouldn't expect a vaccine any time soon - and if one does show up, I'll be the last in line to get it. Rushed vaccines are generally not the safest things to put in your body.
Second, I'm not sure self isolation of healthy individuals is really a good play. Everything I've read has suggested that exercise and nutrition are of paramount importance, and essentially imprisoning people to the point where they can get neither will only make the population more susceptible to the virus. Not to mention the effects to mental healthy that isolation can create. We could be trading a cough for depression in young healthy adults.
But children are little disease factories and I spent the first few years of my kids in preschool getting sick repeatedly, so I'm not against closing down schools for a little bit. It is easy to say that though, since I have someone to watch them and lose nothing from school being closed for a while.
Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.
There's also something from Germany, there's also something in Portland, there's also something in Israel.
I would be careful about putting too much stock in such stories. Drug companies are capital intensive and put a lot of money into marketing their product. The media often picks up on small details and makes claims that can't be supported by facts.
Honestly, I feel like we're going to see a vaccine sometime in the near term, but I bet it's going to come from somewhere completely unexpected.
Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.
There's also something from Germany, there's also something in Portland, there's also something in Israel.
I would be careful about putting too much stock in such stories. Drug companies are capital intensive and put a lot of money into marketing their product. The media often picks up on small details and makes claims that can't be supported by facts..
This. A thousand times this. Pharma companies will put out a release about a compound 5% into the process and the media will report it a potential cure. Happens constantly.
These companies also can throw gak against a wall and see what sticks, especially when their pipeline isn't the best. Dusting off an old drug and throwing it at COVID-19 seems very much...that. It could turn into something, but the odds are low.
Necros wrote: Hopefully the cure / vaccine won't be something gross, like eating cauliflower.
Cauliflower dissolved into soup if you cook it long enough. Then you don’t have to taste it.
Anyway, my parents, who insisted they had stocked up well and could take care of themselves, are already asking if we can cook meals for them to “take out”. They’ve also taken one of our egg cartons and a sackful of veggies. It’s only been a few days.
PS: our vegetable-heavy isolation diet is taking an unexpected toll on our precious, precious toilet paper. Not our Rolled Gold, our White Oil, our Texas Textbooks, our Platinum 2-Ply, our As* Cash, our Soggy Silk, our Quilted Comfort....
Anyway, my parents, who insisted they had stocked up well and could take care of themselves, are already asking if we can cook meals for them to “take out”. They’ve also taken one of our egg cartons and a sackful of veggies. .
Some people adapt faster than others, whilst at the same time how "much" you have to save varies on the situation. So you can have a months worth of food, but if you've not got the proper planning/structure/experience to actually make it last a month, its very easy to over-eat and go through the stocks faster. Especially if a "months supply" is an estimated amount based on the idea of you cutting meals a bit short to what you are used too.
Of course for something like this its not a clear cut situation since remaining healthy (ergo eating well) is a very important thing. Furthermore there isn't actually a food shortage at the production end of things. It's purely a case of demand outstripping normal supplies in the short term.
One hopes that by the time many start to learn how to properly budget their food for more than a week or so; much of the enforced isolation might be easing off. Or at the very least measures and methods to reduce infection start stepping into place and it becomes easier to access things like food supplies.
Edit just got an update from my local GW store in the UK that they are now stopping all gaming and painting. The store itself remains open to buy and trade, but there won't be any hobby activities taking place. I'd wager unless a town has a major outbreak and unless government forces stores to close; this is likely how game stores will continue for the near future. Likely with staff using hand wipes/disinfectant/ etc... to protect themselves and those coming to shop.
Well, our University ordered a total lock-down until April 19. Employees have to work at home.
I'm expecting a total shutdown in Germany by the beginning of next week - for say 3 weeks.
Just got through a corporate meeting. Apparently even the software company execs are panicking despite the fact that our entire business model resolves around citizens skipping the local office and using our product from home instead.
Hopefully they'll calm down. Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model
Charger - software customers can't buy software if they aren't working and with a lot of major software brands now doing monthly payment plans one way to cut costs if you're out of work is to cut your software subscription.
If you're not using it for one or two months that's quite a saving, esp if you use several software packages.
Of course the argument is that many using software will work from home so it shouldn't have a huge impact, but I can see potential for quite a few dropping software to make savings.
There's also the knock on effect for any niche-products in so much as how it impacts smaller businesses and how many will survive this in good health. Again this could result in a loss of some significant numbers of customers.
Many small retailers are already at the line with finances anyway; hitting them with a sudden closure order and customers who are running out of cash and can't even mail-order; that's going to hit a lot of pockets. The only bonus is that its hitting everyone mostly at around the same time. So in theory there's less room for competition to push their way in.
I think a lot comes down to if this lasts one or two months. One month shutdowns should be survivable by most; two months and we'll see a lot heavily rely on insurance to cover their costs to remain open and many might well close up. Three months and you're at a disaster point since even if the bans lift it will take the consumer market far longer to recover; assuming many might be out of work or at least out of money having taken enforced holidays.
Tourists business will get a double hit from a loss of summer trade and then a loss of end of year trade as people won't have free time slots to go on holidays.
ChargerIIC wrote: Hopefully they'll calm down. Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model
The corona panic was created by Amazon to get those last few retail stores to close. In the future, we will all work for and be consumers of Amazon. It will be our government, our employer, our family, and our god. The future isn't cyberpunk, it's idiocracy.
I'm kidding about Amazon being behind the panic, but there is no doubt that Amazon will be one of the few who actually escape this situation unharmed (in fact, they are doing record business right now). The devastation to the retail space will destroy many businesses, and likely many small towns. I feel like the hobby gaming market will be particularly effected, as a lot of businesses rely on FLGS selling their product. With low margins, how is a company barely scraping by going to survive having its primary mode of distribution, marketing, and support disappear for a month (or longer)?
I kind of feel like an ass complaining about gaming when people losing their lives, jobs, businesses ect but i don't get out of the house often and i was really looking forward to this years escalation league. I've already bought the full army, and we had 4 more months to go
We’ve heard reports on social media that people are claiming to be Red Cross volunteers and falsely offering coronavirus tests. These are fake: we are NOT conducting any tests anywhere in the UK. We've reported it to the police. Please ask to see ID if anyone reaches out to you.
Not sure what's more depressing : the fact this is happening or that fact that when I read it I just kinda though " of course".
Sqorgar wrote: Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model
This is so dumb, like saying the airline industry is going to go under. No, some of the airlines might, whens the last time you took a Pan Am flight? Air travel will change, but it won't disappear.
I'm kidding about Amazon being behind the panic
Ya that's not funny bud. People at my church were talking about how this was engineered by China to cause our collapse, these are the same people buying TP by the pallet. I don't wana get political but rolls down hill, maybe disbanding the NSC pandemic response wasn't a great idea.
We’ve heard reports on social media that people are claiming to be Red Cross volunteers and falsely offering coronavirus tests. These are fake: we are NOT conducting any tests anywhere in the UK. We've reported it to the police. Please ask to see ID if anyone reaches out to you.
Not sure what's more depressing : the fact this is happening or that fact that when I read it I just kinda though " of course".
A whole load of elderly people left by themselves almost all the time for three months are going to get burgled. It's very sad.
Greece: 35 new cases today, 5 dead total. "Gatherings" are discouraged and recalcitrant bishops are put in their place ,with much delay.
Supermarkets are 10-20 at a time with loose queues. Masks and gloves at low stock disinfectant hand lotion still non existent.
Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.
And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.
This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...
Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts. .
You are misreading this. Herd immunity is the answer, because claims of containment are going to fail and no matter our strategy, it will end with herd immunity. We will develop herd immunity is more honest than we are going to stop the virus. This pandemic doesn't have neat easy correct answers, it is going to be messy, many will die. This will happen if you make media friendly actions of actions that the media dislike. There are too many experts with an internet connection, Boris and Co chose which ones they are going to listen to, and they made their point clearly.
Had Johnson advocated total lockdown alternate experts would be saying herd immunity is the thing, lockdown wasnt going to work and it will cost 200k casualties before the mistake is rectified, and the press would lap it up. Whichever strategy was adopted, opposed strategy scientists would get air time. That is how press works, particularly in the UK.
You cant win the media war in a scenario where there isn't a single obvious solution, all you can do is make the best of bad choices to deal with the pandemic. Nobody knows what the right strategy is, but the health experts the government are following have espoused a sound plan, its logical and it makes sense. It has convinced me. Others may be convinced by alternate approaches, or just passed around between multiple negative articles in the press.
I gave a warning on page one or two of this thread, when this was just a China issue, that if it reached the west there would be too many opinions and action would be constrained by our natural liberties. An authoritarian society has the best chance of succeeding in a lockdown, and they can best ensure compliance. You really think you are going to seal France? There will be leakage, there will be outbreaks. Sorry lockdowns don't work in western culture, we are too used to our liberties, and our people are soft and easily scared.
Works pretty well so far in terms of slowing the spread and buying time to prepare in every other country that went the whole hog from the get-go in implementing "draconian" measures. Poor leadership is poor leadership.
So what it boils down to is are we really saying the british /western public is so selfish they won't respect quarantie protocols and directives or are willing accept social responsibility?
Well our company gave us extra sick time to use “as we see fit”. I’m going to self-isolate for the next few weeks. I have a weakened immune system and my wife has surgery coming up. The customers I deal with at work are mostly elderly and/or disabled. I don’t want to risk infection or be a vector to get others sick. CDC is saying no more than 10 people gathering but our workplace is not following that. We have barely any cleaning and sanitation product for us to use. People are coming in sick because “this chinese flu is overhyped” and “I’ve never taken a day off” and there’s already a potential COVID infected employee that was forced to go home.
Is self-isolating the best thing to do? I don’t know, but I think it’s best for me and my family right now.
MiguelFelstone wrote: I kind of feel like an ass complaining about gaming when people losing their lives, jobs, businesses ect but i don't get out of the house often and i was really looking forward to this years escalation league. I've already bought the full army, and we had 4 more months to go
It's okay to be disappointed, so long as you keep it in perspective. My kids were poised to have really fun baseball seasons because reasons, and I'm sad they won't get the chance to have those experiences and memories. Public health is infinitely more important and if this saves lives it's worth it, but I'm still sad for them.
The best most places can hope for is that a coworker tests positive and has their position temporarily closed, and they get lucky enough to not catch it. Otherwise they just have to keep showing up and being put at risk by random folks who are either too stubborn to stay home while knowing their sick, people unaware they have it, or are people in their same boat and can't afford to stay home.
rolls down hill, maybe disbanding the NSC pandemic response wasn't a great idea.
