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Probably chilly.

tneva82 wrote:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
.

Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.

And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.

This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...

Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.

A) they were listening to experts. The experts appear to have been wrong.
B) this really isn't a time for I told you so smugness.

What were they wrong about?

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
What were they wrong about?

The Imperial College COVID-19 working group, who leaks indicate have been the key advisors to Vallance and Whitty, yesterday published an article essentially saying that of the two possible strategies, strategy A ('mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection') which was the UK policy is absolutely the poorer option and strategy B, suppression, is now essential.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

As I stated in my previous response to you, though, this assumes that 'correct' is synonymous with 'mathematically optimal in viral terms' and ignores social repercussions.


EDIT: we may not, of course, ever know for certain whether they were wrong. Everyone is using problematic data. We'll have a better idea when all their data from the outset is released, but by then obviously it'll be far too late to redress errors. It likely already is. So we have to trust experts as best we can and hope for the best.

Headline this morning about failed Ebola vaccination that is showing promise killing corona.

Do you have a link hulk? There seem to be a few that can be applied, the one I read was an HIV and malaria drug combination. Great that things on the vaccine/treatment front are looking promising, at least!

Oh look, the mods can delete posts when it suits them.

Anyway, I’m going to try and put some of my old jobs to good use. The petrol station I worked in can provide supplies, and I have a mental list of vulnerable people in my head from my time as a bin man. Going to see if I can work out some sort of care package system, or at least help out if they already have one going.

When I checked last Friday, Food Poisoning had killed more people in the US last year, than Coronavirus had killed worldwide.

I have a feeling those stats have changed now.

Edit: This comment is in relation to the Carry-out vs. Sit-in conversation a few pages back. Thread moved too fast for me.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/

Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Oh look, the mods can delete posts when it suits them.

Anyway, I’m going to try and put some of my old jobs to good use. The petrol station I worked in can provide supplies, and I have a mental list of vulnerable people in my head from my time as a bin man. Going to see if I can work out some sort of care package system, or at least help out if they already have one going.

Good man. Have an exalt.

In other news, I'm stuck in Angola until this blows over or the project is over, whichever comes first. At least Angola is currently Corona-free. Hopefully it stays that way, because this is *not* a place you want to be stuck with a potentially life-threatening disease.

 ced1106 wrote:

We have a vaccine for influenza.
We do not have a vaccine for CoVid.

IMO, THAT is the difference between “the flu” and the coronavirus. Even though a flu vaccine isn’t always effective, it makes transmission of a virus more difficult. Not only can fewer people catch a virus if there’s a vaccine, the people who can catch the virus are spread out further, in effect, keeping that 6′ distance away from someone who’s infected. This also means that those who don’t have a flu shot still benefit from the vaccine because others are immune. This is called “herd immunity”. Moooo.

That's not how it actually works. To create the flu vaccine, they generally make an educated guess months in advance about which flu strains will be dominant during the winter months. These predictions are always wrong (sometimes disastrously so), and the effectiveness of flu vaccines generally sit at around 10% protection - sometimes as low as 5% - certainly not enough for herd immunity. Herd immunity is based on how contagious the disease is, and you'd probably need close to 90% immunity for the flu. Since we don't get anywhere near that, we still have hundreds of thousands of cases of the flu every year. To make matters worse, flu vaccines can actually make you more susceptible different flu strains, and a recent military study has shown that flu vaccinations actually increase your chances of getting a coronavirus (not this coronavirus, but in general).

I really wish this was stressed better by the media and government. CoVid isn’t measles, but “In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles. ... widespread use of measles vaccine drastically reduced the disease rates. By 1981, the number of reported measles cases was 80% less compared with the previous year."

To put things in perspective, trampolines killed about 4,800 kids in 2006 and sent 105,000 to emergency rooms, with 1 in 200 injuries leading to permanent neurological damage - and don't even get me started on swimming pools, which kill about 3,500 people a year and hospitalizes a lot more. In the 1960s, before the measles vaccine, the hospitals were hardly being overrun by the measles.

That’s a lot of hospital beds, and I’m still looking for studies about the long-term effects of CoVid on patients who have recovered. If we assume the lungs recover from CoVid like they do from smoking after quitting, odds may be pretty good, since your lungs do heal after quitting. CoVid deaths in China are higher in males, possibly because of the high rate of males smoking in China, and low rates by women. The ban on smoking in the USA started in 2003, so I imagine we're actually better off than if the virus hit the USA alongside the Y2K bug.

There's numerous reasons to believe that it won't be as bad in the US. Climate, health, nutrition, distance, and so on should ensure that the disease spreads much slower, while these same factors could also mean that the severity of the disease in those who do get it will be much less. Smoking definitely seems to be a major factor in the severity of the disease, and as I've mentioned, smokers have three time higher chance of getting pneumonia than non-smokers.

What I'm curious about is where vaping fits into all of this. It wasn't that long enough that there was some sort of bronchial damage attributed to vaping, with side effects that aren't particularly unlike what the coronavirus is now. I'm wondering if vaping actually makes you more susceptible to this virus than smoking. The devastation to the m'lady population will be immense.

Thankfully vaccine research has already started, and, hopefully, we’ll eventually have a vaccine. Right now, the SF Bay Area has "ordered" self-isolation and the opening of only essential services (eg. groceries, banks, and, yes, laundromats). While I wish our local governments released this statement back in January, it's at least some sort of vote of confidence, even if it doesn't really do anything more than what those who prepared are already doing. (Schools are finally closed, so that's a step in the right direction. Nothing better than having that kid get the parents infected, then the parents spreading it all over the office.)

First off, I wouldn't expect a vaccine any time soon - and if one does show up, I'll be the last in line to get it. Rushed vaccines are generally not the safest things to put in your body.

Second, I'm not sure self isolation of healthy individuals is really a good play. Everything I've read has suggested that exercise and nutrition are of paramount importance, and essentially imprisoning people to the point where they can get neither will only make the population more susceptible to the virus. Not to mention the effects to mental healthy that isolation can create. We could be trading a cough for depression in young healthy adults.

But children are little disease factories and I spent the first few years of my kids in preschool getting sick repeatedly, so I'm not against closing down schools for a little bit. It is easy to say that though, since I have someone to watch them and lose nothing from school being closed for a while.

 Hulksmash wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/

Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.

There's also something from Germany, there's also something in Portland, there's also something in Israel.

I would be careful about putting too much stock in such stories. Drug companies are capital intensive and put a lot of money into marketing their product. The media often picks up on small details and makes claims that can't be supported by facts.

Honestly, I feel like we're going to see a vaccine sometime in the near term, but I bet it's going to come from somewhere completely unexpected.

Hopefully the cure / vaccine won't be something gross, like eating cauliflower.

 techsoldaten wrote:

 Hulksmash wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/

Thats a related article that came out yesterday but dicusses the drug they are talking about. According to the news its only been used 2 times so far but bith successful.

There's also something from Germany, there's also something in Portland, there's also something in Israel.

I would be careful about putting too much stock in such stories. Drug companies are capital intensive and put a lot of money into marketing their product. The media often picks up on small details and makes claims that can't be supported by facts..

 Necros wrote:
Hopefully the cure / vaccine won't be something gross, like eating cauliflower.

Cauliflower dissolved into soup if you cook it long enough. Then you don’t have to taste it.

Anyway, my parents, who insisted they had stocked up well and could take care of themselves, are already asking if we can cook meals for them to “take out”. They’ve also taken one of our egg cartons and a sackful of veggies. It’s only been a few days.

PS: our vegetable-heavy isolation diet is taking an unexpected toll on our precious, precious toilet paper. Not our Rolled Gold, our White Oil, our Texas Textbooks, our Platinum 2-Ply, our As* Cash, our Soggy Silk, our Quilted Comfort....

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:


Anyway, my parents, who insisted they had stocked up well and could take care of themselves, are already asking if we can cook meals for them to “take out”. They’ve also taken one of our egg cartons and a sackful of veggies. .

Some people adapt faster than others, whilst at the same time how "much" you have to save varies on the situation. So you can have a months worth of food, but if you've not got the proper planning/structure/experience to actually make it last a month, its very easy to over-eat and go through the stocks faster. Especially if a "months supply" is an estimated amount based on the idea of you cutting meals a bit short to what you are used too.

Of course for something like this its not a clear cut situation since remaining healthy (ergo eating well) is a very important thing. Furthermore there isn't actually a food shortage at the production end of things. It's purely a case of demand outstripping normal supplies in the short term.



One hopes that by the time many start to learn how to properly budget their food for more than a week or so; much of the enforced isolation might be easing off. Or at the very least measures and methods to reduce infection start stepping into place and it becomes easier to access things like food supplies.







Edit just got an update from my local GW store in the UK that they are now stopping all gaming and painting. The store itself remains open to buy and trade, but there won't be any hobby activities taking place. I'd wager unless a town has a major outbreak and unless government forces stores to close; this is likely how game stores will continue for the near future. Likely with staff using hand wipes/disinfectant/ etc... to protect themselves and those coming to shop.

Well, our University ordered a total lock-down until April 19. Employees have to work at home.
I'm expecting a total shutdown in Germany by the beginning of next week - for say 3 weeks.

Just got through a corporate meeting. Apparently even the software company execs are panicking despite the fact that our entire business model resolves around citizens skipping the local office and using our product from home instead.

Hopefully they'll calm down. Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model

Charger - software customers can't buy software if they aren't working and with a lot of major software brands now doing monthly payment plans one way to cut costs if you're out of work is to cut your software subscription.

If you're not using it for one or two months that's quite a saving, esp if you use several software packages.


Of course the argument is that many using software will work from home so it shouldn't have a huge impact, but I can see potential for quite a few dropping software to make savings.




There's also the knock on effect for any niche-products in so much as how it impacts smaller businesses and how many will survive this in good health. Again this could result in a loss of some significant numbers of customers.


Many small retailers are already at the line with finances anyway; hitting them with a sudden closure order and customers who are running out of cash and can't even mail-order; that's going to hit a lot of pockets. The only bonus is that its hitting everyone mostly at around the same time. So in theory there's less room for competition to push their way in.


I think a lot comes down to if this lasts one or two months. One month shutdowns should be survivable by most; two months and we'll see a lot heavily rely on insurance to cover their costs to remain open and many might well close up. Three months and you're at a disaster point since even if the bans lift it will take the consumer market far longer to recover; assuming many might be out of work or at least out of money having taken enforced holidays.

Tourists business will get a double hit from a loss of summer trade and then a loss of end of year trade as people won't have free time slots to go on holidays.

 ChargerIIC wrote:
Hopefully they'll calm down. Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model

The corona panic was created by Amazon to get those last few retail stores to close. In the future, we will all work for and be consumers of Amazon. It will be our government, our employer, our family, and our god. The future isn't cyberpunk, it's idiocracy.

I'm kidding about Amazon being behind the panic, but there is no doubt that Amazon will be one of the few who actually escape this situation unharmed (in fact, they are doing record business right now). The devastation to the retail space will destroy many businesses, and likely many small towns. I feel like the hobby gaming market will be particularly effected, as a lot of businesses rely on FLGS selling their product. With low margins, how is a company barely scraping by going to survive having its primary mode of distribution, marketing, and support disappear for a month (or longer)?

I kind of feel like an ass complaining about gaming when people losing their lives, jobs, businesses ect but i don't get out of the house often and i was really looking forward to this years escalation league. I've already bought the full army, and we had 4 more months to go

https://twitter.com/SuffolkTS/status/1239885055385915392

We've seen reports from colleagues across the Country of doorstep rogues claiming to be from the NHS providing a Covid-19 vaccine.

Scammers will take advantage of the situation, to extort money, or to gain access to your home.

Report any cold callers to us via 0808 223 1133.

https://twitter.com/BritishRedCross/status/1239883147195662336

We’ve heard reports on social media that people are claiming to be Red Cross volunteers and falsely offering coronavirus tests. These are fake: we are NOT conducting any tests anywhere in the UK. We've reported it to the police. Please ask to see ID if anyone reaches out to you.

Not sure what's more depressing : the fact this is happening or that fact that when I read it I just kinda though " of course".

 Sqorgar wrote:
Local FLGS released an estimate of the cost (to their business) of the shelter in place. It's pretty scary. Wonder if this will be what finally kills off the FLGS business model

This is so dumb, like saying the airline industry is going to go under. No, some of the airlines might, whens the last time you took a Pan Am flight? Air travel will change, but it won't disappear.

I'm kidding about Amazon being behind the panic

Ya that's not funny bud. People at my church were talking about how this was engineered by China to cause our collapse, these are the same people buying TP by the pallet. I don't wana get political but rolls down hill, maybe disbanding the NSC pandemic response wasn't a great idea.

 reds8n wrote:
https://twitter.com/SuffolkTS/status/1239885055385915392

We've seen reports from colleagues across the Country of doorstep rogues claiming to be from the NHS providing a Covid-19 vaccine.

Scammers will take advantage of the situation, to extort money, or to gain access to your home.

Report any cold callers to us via 0808 223 1133.

https://twitter.com/BritishRedCross/status/1239883147195662336

We’ve heard reports on social media that people are claiming to be Red Cross volunteers and falsely offering coronavirus tests. These are fake: we are NOT conducting any tests anywhere in the UK. We've reported it to the police. Please ask to see ID if anyone reaches out to you.

Not sure what's more depressing : the fact this is happening or that fact that when I read it I just kinda though " of course".

A whole load of elderly people left by themselves almost all the time for three months are going to get burgled. It's very sad.

 Future War Cultist wrote:

A whole load of elderly people left by themselves almost all the time for three months are going to get burgled. It's very sad.

Imagine being burgled and then killed by the infection the burglar leaves behind!

Greece: 35 new cases today, 5 dead total. "Gatherings" are discouraged and recalcitrant bishops are put in their place ,with much delay.
Supermarkets are 10-20 at a time with loose queues. Masks and gloves at low stock disinfectant hand lotion still non existent.

 Orlanth wrote:

tneva82 wrote:


Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.

And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.

This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...

Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
.

You are misreading this. Herd immunity is the answer, because claims of containment are going to fail and no matter our strategy, it will end with herd immunity. We will develop herd immunity is more honest than we are going to stop the virus.
This pandemic doesn't have neat easy correct answers, it is going to be messy, many will die. This will happen if you make media friendly actions of actions that the media dislike.
There are too many experts with an internet connection, Boris and Co chose which ones they are going to listen to, and they made their point clearly.

Had Johnson advocated total lockdown alternate experts would be saying herd immunity is the thing, lockdown wasnt going to work and it will cost 200k casualties before the mistake is rectified, and the press would lap it up. Whichever strategy was adopted, opposed strategy scientists would get air time. That is how press works, particularly in the UK.

You cant win the media war in a scenario where there isn't a single obvious solution, all you can do is make the best of bad choices to deal with the pandemic. Nobody knows what the right strategy is, but the health experts the government are following have espoused a sound plan, its logical and it makes sense. It has convinced me. Others may be convinced by alternate approaches, or just passed around between multiple negative articles in the press.

I gave a warning on page one or two of this thread, when this was just a China issue, that if it reached the west there would be too many opinions and action would be constrained by our natural liberties. An authoritarian society has the best chance of succeeding in a lockdown, and they can best ensure compliance. You really think you are going to seal France? There will be leakage, there will be outbreaks. Sorry lockdowns don't work in western culture, we are too used to our liberties, and our people are soft and easily scared.

Works pretty well so far in terms of slowing the spread and buying time to prepare in every other country that went the whole hog from the get-go in implementing "draconian" measures.
Poor leadership is poor leadership.

So what it boils down to is are we really saying the british /western public is so selfish they won't respect quarantie protocols and directives or are willing accept social responsibility?

Well our company gave us extra sick time to use “as we see fit”. I’m going to self-isolate for the next few weeks. I have a weakened immune system and my wife has surgery coming up. The customers I deal with at work are mostly elderly and/or disabled. I don’t want to risk infection or be a vector to get others sick. CDC is saying no more than 10 people gathering but our workplace is not following that. We have barely any cleaning and sanitation product for us to use. People are coming in sick because “this chinese flu is overhyped” and “I’ve never taken a day off” and there’s already a potential COVID infected employee that was forced to go home.

Is self-isolating the best thing to do? I don’t know, but I think it’s best for me and my family right now.

Vector consideration is important.

I’m pretty robust, health wise, and yes I count my blessings. But, I normally commute to London. And my flatmate is a delivery driver

So whilst exposure for me is unlikely to be a big thing, I’d be bringing it back to yet another area, and through flatmate, who knows how many others.

MiguelFelstone wrote:
I kind of feel like an ass complaining about gaming when people losing their lives, jobs, businesses ect but i don't get out of the house often and i was really looking forward to this years escalation league. I've already bought the full army, and we had 4 more months to go

It's okay to be disappointed, so long as you keep it in perspective. My kids were poised to have really fun baseball seasons because reasons, and I'm sad they won't get the chance to have those experiences and memories. Public health is infinitely more important and if this saves lives it's worth it, but I'm still sad for them.