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So, does anyone have any hunches on wizards? We can't keep voting non-talkers if they kill one of us every night.

Gathering storm seems like he would be a good lackey. (No offense, since I think I would be a good one too)

But, i'll hold my vote for a day or two.

Im holding my vote until some real evidence that some one is scum shows up.

Orkeosaurus wrote:Damn. I knew it!

Knew that fifty would be night killed? That seems like a valuable piece of knowledge to have.

No, knew that TheVadam was innocent. And not so much "knew" in the literal sense, so much as suspected it.

Apparently a Wolf Guard is now dead, but I'm actually going to go ahead and say this may have been a lucky shot on the part of the witches. Thor said there would be a lot of roles, after all.

I too think it was a lucky shot. After all, fifty protecting arctic isn't improbable (did he tell if he saw your message on day one,arctic? I don't remember). And the scum targeting fifty isn't improbable either. Of course, what manchu said is just as likely, I guess, seeing as this game is supposed to be roleheavy (a great argument supporting your case, manchu).

Can anyone think of any reason the sons would have to kill fifty if they didn't know he had the shield power? Fifty wasn't really antagonizing anyone as far as I can remember. His death wouldn't exactly frame anyone either. Perhaps that's why they took him out.

That seems likely. Because he had no suspision or anything on him nothing much could really happen if he went I guess.

Some of this talk is sounding suspicious. Let me reiterate my point more clearly.

Fifty was killed either because:

(1) He was quiet and non-threatening to scum

-OR-

(2) He had the ability to shield other townies.

I think (2) is a more reasonable explanation, leading me to believe that the scum have the investigate ability.

But others are saying "Nah, they just got lucky." Downplaying the first truly logical conclusion based on actual evidence seems a bit dodgy.

Now I admit that it's possible the scum randomly killed and it happened to pay off. I'd rather assume, however, that they knew what they were doing last night and--for the same reason--they may already know what they want to do tonight.

Also, where is A_F?

Lets put some wild guess's and slander out there- I declare Orkeosaurus the Arch-Heretic. I'm not going to vote for him yet, I just want to see if he copes under pressure.

Also, where the hell is A_F! Seems mighty suspicious to me that he hasn't posted yet.

EDIT: Added more text

Manchu wrote:Also, where is A_F?

Gathering Storm wrote:Also, where the hell is A_F! Seems mighty suspicious to me that he hasn't posted yet.

Per PM, Arctik is currently ill - I suspect once he is done coughing up various parts of his body that probably belong inside of it he will be back to posting at his regular pace.

Thor665 wrote:

Manchu wrote:Also, where is A_F?

Gathering Storm wrote:Also, where the hell is A_F! Seems mighty suspicious to me that he hasn't posted yet.

Per PM, Arctik is currently ill - I suspect once he is done coughing up various parts of his body that probably belong inside of it he will be back to posting at his regular pace.

Oh, okay then. We need our 'town rallyer' back so I hope he gets well soon.

Gathering Storm

Manchu wrote:Fifty was killed either because:

(1) He was quiet and non-threatening to scum

-OR-

(2) He had the ability to shield other townies.

Quiet isn't the same as non-threatening. A person who talks a lot but consistently targets the wrong people are going to be a lot less threatening than a person who's quiet, but seems to have a better sense of what's going on. Regardless, however, the Sons aren't going to target someone who seems like an obvious target, because to do so would risk another nullification (something they probably wouldn't have considered the first day). And of course, there's the distinct possibility that one (or both) of the "obvious targets" is a Son himself.

But let's look at things with a mass identification power present. Such a power would only be useful if it identified at least three or four players, if it required the sacrifice of their night kill; any less wouldn't be worth the trade off. It may well affect every player, although that might be overpowered, as it would really allow them to dominate the game from that point on. It would seem that the big implication to the use of a mass identification power would be that power roles should identify themselves as such to the rest of the players; after all, if they've already been revealed to the Sons they have nothing left to lose. That's a big "if", however, considering that they make themselves huge targets if they do so, and now without a Wolf Guard (unless there are two?) to protect them.

A third possibility is that the Sons have an identification power that works in addition to their night kills, i.e. the Sons go for a kill on Arctik and investigate Fifty, get blocked from killing Arctik by Fifty, learn Fifty is a Wolf Guard, and then kill him. This would be a bit of a coincidence, though. It's also possible that in defending someone Fifty revealed himself, although there doesn't seem to be much evidence of that being the case.

Orkeosaurus wrote:A person who talks a lot but consistently targets the wrong people are going to be a lot less threatening than a person who's quiet, but seems to have a better sense of what's going on.

I get the insinuation. But I also recall that you "knew" TherVadam wasn't scum.

Orkeosaurus wrote:But let's look at things with a mass identification power present. Such a power would only be useful if it identified at least three or four players, if it required the sacrifice of their night kill; any less wouldn't be worth the trade off.

Two things: (1) this is my same logic regarding a killing power that required skipping a night phase and (2) who suggested that this was a mass-identification power?

Orkeosaurus wrote:A third possibility is that the Sons have an identification power that works in addition to their night kills, i.e. the Sons go for a kill on Arctik and investigate Fifty, get blocked from killing Arctik by Fifty, learn Fifty is a Wolf Guard, and then kill him. This would be a bit of a coincidence, though.

Why not also note, however, that this is no more a coincidence than the scum just happening to target Fifty? Surely the chances that scum investigated Fifty the first night are as good that they killed him without investigating him on the second night?

Manchu wrote:I get the insinuation.

I'm not insinuating anything. I don't even find anyone to be particularly suspicious at this point, which I'm finding to be a bit frustrating.

But I also recall that you "knew" TherVadam wasn't scum.

He wasn't acting like one, in my opinion. He was acting like a lot of other innocent people I've seen lynched. And you were right to put "knew" in quotation marks, as I said, it was a hunch, not a logical deduction.

Two things: (1) this is my same logic regarding a killing power that required skipping a night phase and

I'd have figured as much.

(2) who suggested that this was a mass-identification power?

Uhh.. you just agreed that it would have to identify a fairly large group of people for it to be used in conjunction with sacrificing a kill. That's all I meant by the term.

Why not also note, however, that this is no more a coincidence than the scum just happening to target Fifty? Surely the chances that scum investigated Fifty the first night are as good that they killed him without investigating him on the second night?

Hmm. I suppose you're right, presupposing that there is an equal chance of them having the power described and of them not having it.

Gathering Storm wrote:Lets put some wild guess's and slander out there- I declare Orkeosaurus the Arch-Heretic. I'm not going to vote for him yet, I just want to see if he copes under pressure.

Also, where the hell is A_F! Seems mighty suspicious to me that he hasn't posted yet.

EDIT: Added more text

No evidence and no vote, what pressure is there?
---
Fifty didn't really seem to be on to anyone, unless TherVadem was a baddie.

So, I don't imagine him being picked off for being close. ;p

Ah crap. Apologies for my absence, I have had a sort of eye infection thingy and have been on antibiotics... and sleeping a lot.

It would seem that we have lost our 'doctor'. I am now of the opinion that Fifty shielded me... the following post seems to affirm it:

Fifty wrote:I'd like to hear a contribution from both Lord of Battles and Manchu about who they suspect more out of Arctik_Firangi and Orkeosaurus.

Personally, I don't think AF or Orkeo are Sons, but if I had to go for one, I would say Orkeo is more likely, as AF seems to be genuinely trying to come up with ideas and floundering. At one stage, AF Seemed to be simply flinging accusations for no good reason, but it seems now that he is actually trying to think things through, just with minimal information.

I was formerly quite suspicious of Fifty and disregarded a lot of what he said yesterday, but now that we know his role was the night-shield, it makes a lot of sense. There was no way to be sure before, but Fifty's relative assurance of my innocence has changed my mind in that regard. He has not displayed such 'interest' as fair as I can see in anyone else, nor testified as such.

The post I quoted above is the only hint that the scum might have to suppose that he was the blocker - unless there was a role identification power in play. I played a town role-identification class in my last mafia game - single target - and did not have to skip a turn to use it. It was an overnight power, though, so if it is the case that this power is in play and Fifty was 'identified' by scum, then chances are he was identified during the first night phase.

Orkeo, I like that you've been vocal today - it's different. Please continue.

I'll be contributing again in aboutt 8-9 hours.

Inquisitor_Syphonious wrote:

Gathering Storm wrote:Lets put some wild guess's and slander out there- I declare Orkeosaurus the Arch-Heretic. I'm not going to vote for him yet, I just want to see if he copes under pressure.

Also, where the hell is A_F! Seems mighty suspicious to me that he hasn't posted yet.

EDIT: Added more text

No evidence and no vote, what pressure is there?
---
Fifty didn't really seem to be on to anyone, unless TherVadem was a baddie.

So, I don't imagine him being picked off for being close. ;p

Should I vote for him then, he has been more active than normal, that and I just don't trust him.

Vote: Orkeosaurus

Welcome back Arctik_Firangi!

Welcome back Artik eye thing sounds bad.

Orkeosaurus wrote:
And of course, there's the distinct possibility that one (or both) of the "obvious targets" is a Son himself.

At the moment I think that you and Arkit_firangi seem obvious targets. You both are talking a lot. my 2 pennys as of now.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:The post I quoted above is the only hint that the scum might have to suppose that he was the blocker

Actually, looking back this post caught my eye:

Fifty wrote:I wonder if anyone is brave or foolish enough to claim credit for the night-shield? It would probably be a death sentence, unless there is another shielder and that second shielder both believes them and decides to shield them.

It's far from explicit, but it could be taken as a tell.

I had failed to read into Fifty's post before. I can see your point that it may have been Fifty hinting at us about his own powers. Just for that great detective work I'll withdraw my vote.

Unvote: Orkeosaurus

EDIT: Removed some text that was a bit on the stupid side

The_Ferret was lynched with N0t_U on day one, they were 13th company and if one died the other also dies.

Oh yeah...

I forgot, because I hadn't voted for him...
I remembered we had lost N0t_u I couldn't remember why...

Orkeosaurus wrote:

Arctik_Firangi wrote:The post I quoted above is the only hint that the scum might have to suppose that he was the blocker

Actually, looking back this post caught my eye:

Fifty wrote:I wonder if anyone is brave or foolish enough to claim credit for the night-shield? It would probably be a death sentence, unless there is another shielder and that second shielder both believes them and decides to shield them.

It's far from explicit, but it could be taken as a tell.

It's not explicit at all. Hints like that just don't work in this game. It couldn't be taken as a tell in anything but restropect, unless I'm completely missing something. You're 'looking back,' and something we know to be a fact stands out?

I call irrelevant on that. I'm reposting this because Gathering Storm has been a fairly weak player so far (completely indecisive and showing little commitment to anything) and you seem to have changed his opinion without really trying.

Fifty wrote:I'd like to hear a contribution from both Lord of Battles and Manchu about who they suspect more out of Arctik_Firangi and Orkeosaurus.

Personally, I don't think AF or Orkeo are Sons, but if I had to go for one, I would say Orkeo is more likely, as AF seems to be genuinely trying to come up with ideas and floundering. At one stage, AF Seemed to be simply flinging accusations for no good reason, but it seems now that he is actually trying to think things through, just with minimal information.

Let's see how this one sits...
Vote: Orkeosaurus

Wait . . . I'm having trouble connecting the quote from Fifty and your vote for Orkeo.

Why exactly are you trying to connect my quote with my vote? I'm almost inspired to vote for you for the exact same reason I just poked Orkeo - except that you talk plenty already.

So you're voting Orkeo because he doesn't talk enough? What does that last quotation from Fifty have to do with anything then?

I think that Orkeo may have partially quoted me in order to misdirect with an irrelevant point. The reason for this would be because he didn't like the fact that there was some suggestion of his possible guilt in that post.

I wanted Orkeo to question me on this, Manchu, not you. Please explain why you care so much to derail my line of accusation.

A_F, I have no interest in derailing your accusation. Whether naturally or intentionally, your thought process tends toward the opaque. What would be most helpful for town is clear and convincing argument.

Additionally, Orkeo has rebuffed all attempts to get him talking so far. I'd put a vote on him with you but it's too early in the day to start a bandwagon.

'Thought process' in this game is unnatural - the most part is guesswork and the fun parts are accusation and eventually learning from night-action results (certain roles can gather information, night kills can prove roles to town, and previous posts can begin to line up).

I "don't think" that you meant to derail me - but if you did, I'm sure that you know that I know why. I don't ask questions because I expect the complete truth and I don't vote because I claim to know the complete truth. I'm sure that you know that and I can only ask you in return to synthesise a reply in whatever fashion appeals to you. I'm completely aware of how rhetoric works.

From my perspective, knowing that I am innocent, it makes sense now that Fifty night-shielded me. That is personal proof based on public proof, and I can't claim to half-have evidence of anything more.

I think it is reasonable to assume that Fifty was identified before being targetted because he did not have a great deal of presence, but some smart scum might have had a very good guess.

That's where we stand. Catch ya's tomorrow all.