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 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
Indeed, but its likely that some of those deaths are due to some people not receiving medical attention for other things like cancer etc. I'm not saying this is fact, but it has been mentioned in articles I've read on the issue

It certainly does complicate the situation, but we also have heard about potential longstanding issue like with burning lungs etc.
(the later of which can however ocure with some ventilators depending upon type).

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
Indeed, but its likely that some of those deaths are due to some people not receiving medical attention for other things like cancer etc. I'm not saying this is fact, but it has been mentioned in articles I've read on the issue

There are definitely some cases of this, though it will also be offset by the reduction in other deaths as a byproduct of lockdown - far fewer road accidents etc. There have also been sharp decreases in the number of registrations of, for instance, coronary ailments on death certificates.

ONS stats run a fair way behind so detailed analysis of this will see a fair delay, but a 60% increase in deaths, and upwards of 15,000 deaths in a few weeks, not including any in the community or care homes, is a big number.


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Oh, we now have ONS figures for week to April 10th (18,500 deaths). 80% up on 5 year average, and that week included Good Friday this year, when no registrars are open, so we can expect it to be a couple thousand higher.

That's the highest figure since the first week of January 2000 (a week in which you get a spike due to both the winter and the closure of registrars over Christmas and New Year).

Also note, ONS figures thus far average at 40% higher for Covid-19 deaths than those announced at the same time at the briefings. So if that continues, and it is likely to increase over time, then we're likely to be over 23,000 deaths, at least, currently. Importantly, flu and pneumonia deaths remain consistent with the average.

1. Oil supplies cost money to store, and the world's oil storage infastructure is pretty full right now because of months of slack demand and a recent price war with several suppliers. People looking to take delivery of oil are going to have to build facilities to put it in, or rent them in a panic market, so the price of storage is temporarily higher than the value of the extra barrels of oil. That causes a temporary price inversion until demand rises, supply drops off, or storage gets built. Consider the storage built is usually paid for across multiple economic cycles, but people forced to buy it this week are putting its cost up against the price of the oil it can hold .. this week.

2. We don't have solid data on Covid yet. Two major strains affect the West and East coast of the USA respectively. The asymptomatic carriers appear to be a more significant issue in the population than previously suspected, especially on the west coast. Data from China is best described as a series of lies. Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best. Data from NYC now includes as "corona deaths" the deaths that "might be corona related but might not
In an annual basis, up to 60k people drop from the flu in the USA , but the Variance year to year of the deaths of flu victims is intense -- 60 to 80k in 2017throuh18, but only about 12k in 2018-19. So when you now look at 19-20, its REAL easy to have covid appear to kill 5 times as many as the flu... if you look at just the year before. A virus thought to be 10 times more destructive than influenza when its believed to have only 250,000 cases is suddenly FAR less ominous if its reall y 2.5 million people infected, or 25 millions, and the known cases merely represent the worst affected.

3. Politics in modern US life is the death of truth. Mark carefully who treats falsely in all this and never let them win again. Note that there are good and evil on any end of the spectrum politically. It is extremely worrisome how we dehumanize the opposite political spectrum.

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

I can't believe we're doing this again. We've gone over the "it's just the flu" thing about a hundred pages back.
Simple numbers crunching then already disproved it. The sheer number of deaths in just a few weeks (not a year!) since then has conclusively destroyed it. Please stop spouting that horsehockey.

Epidemiologic data is often incredibly sensitive, there were whole decades when the death rates from HIV in africa were considered classified data because it was thought that revealing such to the world would destablilize the affected governments. Especially the photos from orbiting cameras that showed the damage to agrarian areas, the NASA analyists were first asked what they were, and then, to bury the information, when people figured out something was erasing humanity village by village.
Many govermental health agencies shade their data one way or another, to make themselves look good or make their situation look worthy of assistance. Some do so for other reasons. Many people in very different countries have different testing regimes and different criteria for what they do and do not consider to be the infection rate.

Certainly the data from China has been shown to be mistrustable, starting with "where did this virus come from" and ending with "does it infect dogs and can it pass from person to person." Chinese communists are not the only people capable of lie or bias in reporting, though. From what I have heard, Russia/Moscow is in a fairly bad way, but underrporting the instance there. I expect much of the world to be similar. Few people want to be the bearer of bad news in such matters, and it can skew reporting low.

Overreporting is just as likely to occur as people realize that subsidies and aid money come with it.


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Relax friend, I am not saying its just the flu -- I even went and edited my post a bit to clarify that -- I was trying to list out variosu things that are making our models for the virus unreliable. The comparison to flu (and copd deaths) and the potential to confound them is just an easy example to use.

Dukeofstuff wrote:
Epidemiologic data is often incredibly sensitive, there were whole decades when the death rates from HIV in africa were considered classified data because it was thought that revealing such to the world would destablilize the affected governments. Especially the photos from orbiting cameras that showed the damage to agrarian areas, the NASA analyists were first asked what they were, and then, to bury the information, when people figured out something was erasing humanity village by village.
Many govermental health agencies shade their data one way or another, to make themselves look good or make their situation look worthy of assistance. Some do so for other reasons. Many people in very different countries have different testing regimes and different criteria for what they do and do not consider to be the infection rate.

Certainly the data from China has been shown to be mistrustable, starting with "where did this virus come from" and ending with "does it infect dogs and can it pass from person to person." Chinese communists are not the only people capable of lie or bias in reporting, though. From what I have heard, Russia/Moscow is in a fairly bad way, but underrporting the instance there. I expect much of the world to be similar. Few people want to be the bearer of bad news in such matters, and it can skew reporting low.

Overreporting is just as likely to occur as people realize that subsidies and aid money come with it.


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Relax friend, I am not saying its just the flu -- I even went and edited my post a bit to clarify that -- I was trying to list out variosu things that are making our models for the virus unreliable. The comparison to flu (and copd deaths) and the potential to confound them is just an easy example to use.

I mean, you bring up the two arch authoritharian countries, relying on success for legitimacy.
And yes grain of salt to these i can understand.
But torwards france or italy, which have been really open about their issues (Elssas hotspot etc) or germany or austria or the dutch seems a bit off overall.
As for subsidies, they generally get handed out not to the cases but torwards the economy, and even though we (swiss) have manged for exemple one fo the fastest possible relief efforts that still requires quite a bit of paperwork delieverd to get access to that relief.
So i highly doubt the supposed overreporting of cases and more torwards overreporting of losses economically. and even that can be mitigated by propper work of government and banking.

 insaniak wrote:
This could be a good time for cafes and restaurants to add in a professional-looking, AV- and WiFi-equipped meeting room, if they don't already have one...

I'm sure restaurant owners simply cannot wait to spend money right now.

Context matters. I was talking about the post-coronavirus business environment, not suggesting that they should literally be adding extensions onto their buildings this instant.

Not Online!!! wrote:

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

US people think US only as particularly trustworthy. In practice especially for past few years US is rather dubious source if you want actual facts.

tneva82 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

US people think US only as particularly trustworthy. In practice especially for past few years US is rather dubious source if you want actual facts.

While I wouldn't go anywhere near that far, it is certainly a strange assertion to make from the country who's highest ranking individual made it clear he likes to fudge numbers:

"I would rather—because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault."

I will gladly note that that is true.


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Er .. the bit about mistrusting the US sometimes, not any particular nitpick about our current President.

 Henry wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

US people think US only as particularly trustworthy. In practice especially for past few years US is rather dubious source if you want actual facts.

While I wouldn't go anywhere near that far, it is certainly a strange assertion to make from the country who's highest ranking individual made it clear he likes to fudge numbers:

"I would rather—because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault."

So Basically the cases count not because not from us ?
That's Like we not counting french or italians we treat for them torwards our ventilator cap because we have as Off yet still some capacity left. These people still exist and are in the Same system.

In some positive news my car insurance is giving me some money back, in what I assume is some sort of weird version of profit share, in that the money that they are usually paying out for claims may be piling up due to less road accidents or something.. Its not much but better than nothing. If you're with admiral, then look for an email.

Must be a Mutual company, but my memory on the structure of insurance companies is hazy at best.

tneva82 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

US people think US only as particularly trustworthy. In practice especially for past few years US is rather dubious source if you want actual facts.

This is a longstanding issue that requires some context. Media handling in the USA is very different, with a long tradition of media being a unoffical channel to reveal corruption, scandal and other items that the government wouldn't want revealed. Unlike most other nations, the media in the USA is seen as a political force in its own right on par with major political factions and with a long tradition of the government taking a hands-off approach to its regulation. This is why Americans tend to be skeptical of non-US sources of media, seeing them as too connected to foreign government control or tied to cultures that suppress free media expression. Its a fascinating topic we could spin off a thread for. You really don't get a good idea of just how different the perceptions are until an American sidles up to you and says you can't trust 'them guys in the BBC' or worse, Canadian News. Its also why the idea of facebook suppressing certain news stories is such an new and scandalous development for Americans.

GoatboyBeta wrote:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
Oil has dropped to its lowest price in history.. Under $0 a barrel.. Not sure how that works. Maybe someone who understands economics can explain it

Similar to negative equity I'd imagine. The oil costs more to make then it sells for on the open market.

Costs more to store. Storage capacity is filling up for WTI related facilities.

Issue for me is I’ve a full tank. And no justifiable reason for got for a pootle!

fill up a few jerry cans

Here's an article looking at unaccounted deaths in the context of the Corona virus:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

[…]

But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.

[…]

It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.

 hotsauceman1 wrote:

Wait, TN didnt even make it 3 weeks?
Here in cali we have been like.....nearly 7 weeks.
Pansies

Wait, are you the guy who was complaining about hobby supplies getting sold out or the guy who hasn't lost their income from a shutdown?

He was the 'mask for airbrushing guy', but in fairness, he quickly mostly repented?

Quite a few states (TN, FL and GA) are opening up on Friday - letting nail and hair salons, massage parlors and body art studios have at it - as long as they somehow also follow social distancing guidelines? And with Monday seeing GA add in restaurants (in-restaurant dining!) and movie theaters...

Wait hair and nail whilst maintaining social distancing? How do you even achieve that?

I guess for nails you can put up a screen and have them put their fingers through a gap; wash them and disinfect them and then work on them; but I'm baffled how you can do hair without coming into contact with a person.

A fair few places can adapt - eg food outlets could close indoor seating and only allow out door; then also distribute food through a pickup and collect at the window etc... There's ways to work things provided outdoor seating is well spaced.

I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

 Alpharius wrote:
He was the 'mask for airbrushing guy', but in fairness, he quickly mostly repented?

Quite a few states (TN, FL and GA) are opening up on Friday - letting nail and hair salons, massage parlors and body art studios have at it - as long as they somehow also follow social distancing guidelines? And with Monday seeing GA add in restaurants (in-restaurant dining!) and movie theaters...

I cant honestly imagine getting a tattoo right now. I can understand opening restaurants with limited seating and hours
But why open these first? These are things people can go months without and most people never even consider. With them also being the businesses that have the most contact between customers/provider.
Also, to people who need haircuts......did no one in their family learn remedial hair cutting? I was taught that growing up as was most of my family.

 Ouze wrote:
I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

Throwing knives. Better hope your barber has steady hands.

 Ouze wrote:
I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

 Ouze wrote:
I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

Do it yourself....
Let me introduce you to my tools, Bowl and scissors..

tneva82 wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

Data from other nations are best treated skeptically at best

In what way? And more importantly why?

US people think US only as particularly trustworthy. In practice especially for past few years US is rather dubious source if you want actual facts.

Almost.

Americans think only sources THEY AGREE WITH are trustworthy, and there's almost always an element of political bias and partisan identity in it.


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 Ouze wrote:
I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

I haven't gotten a haircut in thirty years. I just tie it back in a ponytail, done.

You'll live for a few more weeks to months without one, and so will everyone else. I promise.

 Ouze wrote:
I desperately need a haircut, but I have no idea how the barber can do it from 6 feet away.

I have an idea, but it’s really important to ask him not to dip his shuriken in spiderfish venom first.